Diagrama

HISTORY OF EDUCATIONAL POLICY THROUGH EDUCATIONAL STATISTICS Virginija Būdienė, Algirdas Zabulionis preprint Centre for Educational Studies Open Society Fund Lithuania Vilnius, 2001 Translation of studies supported by the World Bank 60000 Born I 1 I 2 IX 3 D 50000 4 B 40000 5 E C 6 DIAGRAM X 30000 7 8 XII 9 A 20000 10 10000 11 12 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Diagram. One age cohort change in the period from 1970 to 2000 Grey diagram background shows the number of children born in Lithuania (birth boom was registered in 1986 when the number of births reached 56727, while in the year 2000 it stood at 34145, a 40 percent decrease, if compared to 1986). Curves in the diagram marks change in number of students in different grades (from 1st to 12th grades). Vertical lines feature the change of that one year born children cohort, starting with the year of birth (grey background of the diagram), and when those children turned into 1st grade students (the highest curve, 2nd grade students, etc. (the lowest diagram shows period when they became graduates). Right point on each of the curves shoes data, which correspond to the number of students in all grades during school year 2000-2001. Capital letters mark the following: A– B– D– E– graduates change curve a family of bends in all curves, which emerged because of the decision to sent six-year children to school. first graders change curve (it imitates the bends of curve for the number of children born) change in number of all young people, who receive secondary school leaving (this group also includes comparatively older students) certificate History of educational policy through educational statistics HISTORY OF EDUCATIONAL POLICY THROUGH EDUCATIONAL STATISTICS By Virginija Būdienė (virgbu@osf.lt) and Algirdas Zabulionis (algiz@nec.lt) A good Christian should beware of mathematicians and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that mathematicians have made a covenant with devil to darken the spirit and confine man in the bonds of Hell. St. Augustine (354-430); DeGenesi ad Litteram, Book II, xviii, 37 Education statistics – is it the base for policy or a tool of manipulations? Some people can hardly imagine state control without reliable digital information, while others attribute statistics to one type of lies. We are not to discuss here who are right, though, we can not boast of information variety about education situation in Lithuania – it contains more feelings than figures. The best illustration to it is a continuous discussion about real number of school age children do not attending school. The figures presented by different sources vary by ten thousands. Education experts should take care about every single child, and this type of deviations in counting the students should cause many problems for education management, as the demand for teachers and schools depends on the number of students. Meanwhile, precise statistics may explain what we had before. Without it, we cannot plan what will be in the nearest future. What is the real number of school children in Lithuania? Let us look at the very core of education statistics – the change of Lithuanian school children number in various grades of comprehensive education institutions in last twenty years. Unfortunately, collection of such simple statistics and its analysis cause many problems because of the lack of accurate data. Lithuanian statistical yearbooks show number of children born each year. However, it is more difficult to get data about the number of students in various grades, as it was not only the education system structure that kept changing, but the age of 1st grade students too. The Centre for Information and Forecasting (it has been reformed recently into the Centre for Information Technologies) under the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Lithuania used to present in its publications summative information only, which did not give a possibility to determine how many and which year born schoolchildren by age groups attended, for example, 9 th grade in different years, or special schools. However, the deviation is not very large, if we collect the data needed from all the sources available now. The said information, when presented in graphics, allows us to understand both our situations in the past and problems waiting in the nearest future. “History” of birth curves. Let us analyse information, shown on the diagram. The grey shadow couture represents a curve for each year born children (change in age cohort). The analysis of the said curve change is very interesting – the number of children born in 1986 was close to 60 thousand, while later, it started going down, 4 V.Būdienė, A.Zabulionis and now, unfortunately, is approaching 34145 only (2000). The better part of this year (in the schoolyear 2000-2001) 1st graders were born in 1993, when total number of children born stood at 47, or 6 thousand less than in 1992. Eventually, the number of 1st graders is 6 thousand less than last year. It is going to decrease further in autumn this year, and be even lower in future (56 thousand children were born in 1990, while a slump to 34 thousand was registered in 2000). It means, less schools and primary school teachers will be needed… “History of curves” for school children number or “history of school” for one generation. In the diagram, one curve corresponds to distribution of students among different grades during one school year. The number of younger students (1 st and 2nd graders) is bigger than that of elder ones. Therefore the curve for 1 st graders is highest, and that for secondary school leavers is the lowest one. Horizontal axe shows birth year of school children. If we draw vertical line at one year mark, we could track the group of children born in the same year who came to 1 st grade, and later were 2nd, 3rd graders … until they reached 12th grade. This is “a school year” of the same age generation. Let us look into more interesting moments of this history (in diagram they are presented in capital letters A, B, C, D, E). A. Curves for 11th and 12th grade students suddenly draw closer to one another – it is because of studies in the schools with the non-Lithuanian language of instruction were prolonged from 11 to 12 years. Children born in 1976 formed the first wave of 12th year graduates from schools were the language of instruction is Russian. B. In late nineties 1st grades used to be formed of six-year olds. It was a very energetic, but a one-time action: the educational system was not ready to meet such change. For one year, there were more of 1st graders, and this “wave” later touched upon 2nd, 3rd graders and until the 12th year graduates. However, lack of places at schools and support from parents 1 st grade students gradually grew “older”. C. The Basic school turned into 10-year cycle: the number of ten-year students boosted considerably. One can see three curves (for students in 10 th, 11th and 12th years) going in parallels until the said moment, but after adding the 10 th grade to basic school, the number of 10-year students increased (to reach the number of 9 year students one year ago). It is not known yet what will be further changes in the said curve. We believe more school children will be striving for ten year and comprehensive secondary education, which means, the number of students in senior grades will be going up. D. The curve showing number of 1st graders repeated the bends of the curve for children who were born seven years before. The number of 1 st graders will keep decreasing for a few years. A slump in birth rates will have an impact on the number of primary school students, therefore, a decision must be taken whether the save funds are to be allocated for financing of pre-school education, or children must be sent to primary school at 6 year, or the said funds can be redistributed for school children in other stages (i.e., by dismissing primary school teachers and putting the saved funds into a student’s basket, for example, to allocate more money for text-books). E. When speaking about comprehensive secondary education we usually have in mind the graduates of comprehensive secondary schools. However, the said type of education is a target for attendants of adult teaching centers, 5 History of educational policy through educational statistics vocational and agricultural schools too. Data presented by the National examination centre showed, “classic” graduates comprise about two-thirds of all who take compulsory Lithuanian language school-leaving (Matura) examination in the year 2001. It means, the number of persons who obtain the secondary education is considerably bigger than 12th grade students in the 2000-2001 school year. School leaving examinations are to be taken by nineteen-year-olds and even elder young people. As there is no data about their age, it is difficult to define which part of the age cohort acquires secondary education. We introduced separate curve for the number of young people, who take compulsory Lithuanian language school-leaving examination. It corresponds the age of school graduates. Part of adult classes attendants who are taking school-leaving examinations this year are only little elder, and part of this year graduates’ contemporaries will go through schoolleaving exam next year. It is difficult to determine which group outnumbers which; nevertheless we can see about 60 to 70 percent of our young people go through secondary education. It is a very big portion of that age group. School success record of each child must be known. Are these curves to help us answer the question about the number of children who do not go to school? Unfortunately, we cannot make precise calculation at the present. When making comparison between the birth curve and the curve for the number of 1 st graders we can see the difference – number of children coming to first grade is decreasing. Children mortality data in Lithuanian statistical yearbooks show approximately 1 percent of children perish before they reach school age. We do not have data on migration flows – how many children of school age left Lithuania, and how many of them arrive in the country. Data accuracy suffers also because of different age children sometimes studying in the same grade, or part of children studying at special schools (about 1 percent of 7 to 15 years old). Even optimistic evaluation of all possible error sources, about 20 thousand children from 1st to 10th grades are missing statistics. Glimpse to future. Upon more attentive look at curves showing the number of school children, we can say the number of senior classes students is to grow for few years, but this is a temporary trend. For example, if we look at whole number of school age children, we can notice growth tendency for last ten years, though in 2001 it will start descending. Apparently, part of schoolchildren will leave school until they reach the 12th grade. Therefore, total number of children, who might be theoretically studying in 1st to 12th grades, is not of big value for making forecasts. More precise evaluation of school children number change dynamics is possible for 1 st to 10th grades (or 1st to 4th grades) only. This is the statistics shown in the diagram, in which the cohort for proper school age children from 2000 is set to 100 percent, thus showing us clearly the dynamics of change. 6 V.Būdienė, A.Zabulionis In the diagram bellow one can see the number of primary school children changing most rapidly, as it directly depends on the children birth number dynamics. The number of grades in basic and secondary schools is bigger; therefore, the change in the number of children birth has slower impact on dynamics of school children number in 1st to 12th grades. 120% 110% 100% 90% Grades 1-4 Grades 5-10 Grades 1-12 80% 70% 60% 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Nevertheless, the number of school children is going to decrease, and in 6 or 7 years, even with the education allocated funds staying at the same level, would help to boost each school child basket 20 percent, compared to the basket in 2001. Of course, this evaluation cannot be treated very seriously, as it was done regardless of economic and financial situation and inflation rate. Nevertheless, optimists may say there will be more funding for one student… This short article does not aim at submitting exhaustive demographic or financial analysis of the national education system (we believe it will be done by new established Education Development Centre). It would like to pay reader’s attention to the following:      Reliable statistics and high quality analysis are major tools for educational policy; Educational statistics in Lithuania are not adequate and reliable enough: the statistics collecting mechanism is weak and archaic; Lithuania does not have school children data basis with school children personal ID codes, which would allow to track students’ “schooling trajectories”; When creating new education information system, it is necessary during the transitional period to ensure statistics collection at least at presently existing level, as difficulties with the new system are expected for few years to reduce statistics reliability; When making plans about further education reform steps, only reliable statistics must be referred to (and not only that dealing with financial recourses, but school children, teachers, schools, etc.). 7