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Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 19

									                     Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS



                                           Johannes Kaiser

                              Tony Hollingsworth, Martin Schultz




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                          J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005               Slide 1
                            Overview of Presentation


  • Motivation
       • Wildfire emissions are a major boundary condition for
         atmospheric composition modelling, thus GEMS.
       • GEMS is just starting.
       • Scientific development, collaborations, and additional funds
         will be needed to do a good job.

  • Contents
       • GEMS Overview
       • GEMS Requirements on Wildfire Emissions
       • Existing Components
       • GEMS Wildfire Strategy Proposal
       • Summary

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS              J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005   Slide 2
                                        GEMS Overview




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                 J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005      Slide 3
           GEMS:                 Global Earth-system Monitoring
                                   using Space and in-situ data


   Coordinator                                   A.Hollingsworth (ECMWF)

        Projects                                 Leadership

        Greenhouse Gases                         P.Rayner (F)

        Reactive Gases                           G.Brasseur (D)

        Aerosol                                  O.Boucher (UK)

        Regional Air Quality                     V-H.Peuch (F)

        Validation                               H.Eskes (NL)

        Global Production System                 A.Simmons (ECMWF),
                                                                        GMES Integrated Project,
                                                              12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries
                                                              www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                              J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005                   Slide 4
                                       Objectives of GEMS


   • Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by
     2009
           • Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data
                   • GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO2, and progressively adding
                     CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),
                   • REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and
                     gradually widening the suite of species),
                   • AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation,         later ~ 30)
   • Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts

   • Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007

   • Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2 and
     other trace constituents




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                       J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005            Slide 5
               GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects




                            Reactive
                             reactive             Greenhouse
                                                   greenhouse
                              gases
                             Gases                    gases
                                                     Gases



                                                    Validation



                                                    Regional
                                                   regional air
                              aerosols
                             Aerosol              Airquality
                                                      Quality




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS              J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005   Slide 6
           Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site
                           • Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for
Year 1                     Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol.
May 2005+12 mo             • Acquire data; build web-site


Year 2                     • Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
May 2006+12 mo             • Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners
                           • Provide feedback to data providers
Year 2-2.5                 • Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system;
May 2007 + 6 mo            • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience

Year 2.5-3.5               • Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
Nov 2007+ 12 mo            • Build operational system, & interfaces to partners


Year 3.5 - 4               • Final pre-operational trials
Nov 2008+ 6 mo             • Documentation & Scientific papers

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                    J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005         Slide 7
                              Requirements on Wildfires




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS              J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005   Slide 8
                       Wildfire Emission Description

  • Wildfires constitute a major boundary condition for atmospheric
    composition modelling.

  • GEMS requirements
       • Amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases
                FRE / AFL / emission factors / burnt area / hot spot
       • Location, Time                        burnt area / hot spot
       • Injection height                           meteo / FRE

  • Cross-cutting
       • Global aerosol and trace gases, regional air quality:
                       consistency, work reuse!
       • Forestry, vegetation monitoring:
                       collaboration with geoland and others!

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS              J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005   Slide 9
          Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements



Year 2                     • Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
May 2006+12 mo             • global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude



Year 2.5-3.5               • Produce unified reanalyses for trace gases and aerosol
Nov 2007+ 12 mo            • high-resolution (temporal & spatial) global fire products
                           for 2000–2007

Year 3.5 - 4               • Final pre-operational trials
Nov 2008+ 6 mo             • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                     J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005          Slide 10
                                    Existing Components



                                        Models, observations




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                       J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005            Slide 11
                            Existing Emission Models




  • Missoula Fire Sciences Lab, USDA Forest Service?



Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS              J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005   Slide 12
              Use of Related Observations in GEMS




  • FRE           amount, time, loc.             Yes     Yes       no, to be drived




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                    J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005         Slide 13
                                      Strategy Proposal




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                 J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005      Slide 14
                     GEMS Baseline Approach (AER)


  • GWEM for amount [Hoelzemann et al. 2004]

  • BUOYANT for injection height [Nikmo et al. 1999]




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS              J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005   Slide 15
          Extended Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS


Year 2                     • Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
May 2006+12 mo             • global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude
                           • climatology: RETRO, AEROCOMM-B


Year 2.5-3.5               • Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
Nov 2007+ 12 mo            • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products for 2000–2007




                                                                                   funding
                                                                                   Partial
                           • burnt area from MODIS, GLOBCARBON…
Year 3.5 - 4               • Final pre-operational trials
Nov 2008+ 6 mo             • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT
                           • hot spots and/or FRE from MODIS, …
Year 5 -                   •   operational phase
2009 -                     •   high-resolution global (t&s) fire products in NRT
                           •   hot spots and/or FRE from MODIS, …
                           •   global WF_ABBA from GEO satellites

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                       J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005            Slide 16
     Single Evolving Fire Assimilation System (FAS)
• Single, consistent processing for all GEMS subprojects
• Evolution from climatology to existing products to fire assimilation hidden
  behind constant interface
t
         fire
                                                         GEMS
     climatology                                                  greenhouse
     land cover                                                      gases
     climatology
                                  Fire                             reactive
      satellite                                  global fire
    fire product
                              Assimilation       emissions          gases
      satellite                 System
      radiance                                                     aerosols
     land cover
       product                                                     regional
         fire                                                     air quality
       product      geoland, …
Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                   J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005        Slide 17
                                           Summary
  • GEMS combines satellite and in-situ observations in a operational
    global data assimilation / forecast system.
  • GEMS will provide re-analyses and forecasts of the atmospheric
    composition, i.e. aerosols and trace gases.
  • The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross-
    cutting issues in GEMS.

  • The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real
    time as well as with a time lag.
  • No suitable wildfire emission product is available.

  • A phased development strategy for a global fire assimilation
    system and wildfire emission modelling has been proposed.
  • Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected.
  • The strategy is currently being discussed and we are grateful for
    comments, suggestions, collaborations, and contributions.
Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                  J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005       Slide 18
                                           More Info


  • www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS
  • www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO
  • j.kaiser@ecmwf.int




Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS                    J. Kaiser
IGBP-QUEST Fire Workshop, Exeter, October 2005         Slide 19

								
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