The Future of the Automobile - Stanford University

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					The Future of the Automobile
 Instructions and Introduction to ME302




First Session of Class ME302
Stanford University            Dr. Sven A. Beiker
September 24, 2012             Instructor, Lecturer ME302 – The Future of the Automobile
                               416 Escondido Mall, Bldg 550/Room 131, Stanford, CA 94305
                               650 736-1504, beiker@stanford.edu, http://me302.stanford.edu
                                                                                  !"
    Introduction – Sven Beiker, Automotive Biography



!  20+ Years in Automotive Research, Development, Strategy
    "  PhD in ME, Thesis on Vehicle Dynamics Control Systems (at BMW)
   "  M.S. in ME, Thesis on Vehicle Acoustics / Quality Control (at Volkswagen)
   "  Innovation Management, Chassis Systems, Vehicle Dynamics, Hybrid Vehicles
!  13 Years with BMW R&D Organizations in Germany, Silicon Valley, Michigan
!  3 Years with Stanford University, Center for Automotive Research (CARS)
    "  Managing Operations of Industry Affiliates Program
   "  Instructing Classes in Engineering and Business
   "  Initiating Research Programs
                                                                #"
 Introduction – Sven Beiker, From Germany to Stanford



                                     -1989



                                        1989-1995




2008-
                    2006-2008

        2003-2006
                                                    1995-2003
                                              $"
     Introduction – Sven Beiker, Motivation




The Future of the Automobile

    and Personal Mobility*.



* Mobility =                            +     !
 The Past of the Automobile




How did we end up here? – And what have we learned?
  The Automobile - Invented, Where and When Exactly?




           1335: G. da Vigevano, Italy                                        1769: N.J. Cugnot, France




      1832-1839: R. Anderson, Scotland                                         1870: S. Marcus, Austria
       (picture shows 1888 electric 3-wheeler by Rover)
Sources: http://www.ausbcomp.com/%7Ebbott/cars/carhist.htm http://www.uh.edu/engines/epi1562.htm
         http://www.3wheelers.com/rover.html, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile
1830’s                                    Why Not England?




“A series of accidents and propaganda from the established railroads in the 1830’s
caused restrictive legislation and the development of the automobile bypassed England.”
Sources: http://www.ausbcomp.com/%7Ebbott/cars/carhist.htm
1886 Patent Motorwagen – The Birth of the Automobile?




                                                                                                                            Karl Benz’ Patent Motorwagen
Source: http://www.7-forum.com/bilder/news/2006/technoclassica/karl_benz_motorwagen_100476521200-b_jpg.html?ref=http://www.7-forum.com/news/2006/technoclassica/mercedes.php&ort=34
1894 Competition, Endurance, Sport from the Start




                               G. Lemaître – First Automobile Race (Concours des Voitures sans Chevaux)
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auto_racing
1900                         The First Hybrid Electric Vehicle




                                              Lohner Porsche – Series Hybrid Vehicle with Wheel Hub Motors
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche_Mixte_Hybrid
1911                          Breakthrough – Electric Starter




                                                                      Charles F. Kettering – working on a Buick 1913
Source: http://www.delcoremyhistory.com/Products/startingmotors.htm
1913                                          Mass Production




                                                                                         Ford Model T Assembly Line
Source: http://www.city-data.com/forum/history/836263-day-history-december-1-31-a.html
1915                         First Automotive Proving Ground




                                                                                   Dodge Hamtramck Plant Test Track
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_superlatives, http://dodgemotorcar.com/factories/hamtramck/photos_58.php
1929                  Mass Motorization – Cars Everywhere




                          In 1918, only 1 in 13 families owned a car. By 1929, 4 out of 5 families had one.
Source: http://www.suite101.com/content/cars-in-the-1920s-a90169, http://www.stanlaurelandoliverhardy.com/ford10.htm
1935                 United Auto Workers Union Chartered




                                                                      1936 Sit-In at Fisher Body Plant in Flint, MI
Source: http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1887394_1861265,00.html
1939                  U.S. Highway 66 – ”The Mother Road”




Source: http://www.nationalroute66.org/66hstry.html (showing a ca. 1927 scene in CA)
1941                                     Celebrities and Cars




                                                                       Rita Hayworth & Lincoln Continental
Source: http://www.hotrodders.com/forum/kobal-collection-138659.html
1944               Automobiles Go to War and Bing Peace




                              Generals Dwight D. Eisenhower in Jeep During the Liberation of Normandy
Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Eisenhower_in_jeep_in_Normandy_orchard.jpg
1956 Federal Aid Highway Act – Interstate System




                                                    Three states have claimed the title of first Interstate Highway
Source: http://48byinterstate.com/history.htm, http://highway.umwblogs.org/invention/
1956                   “Great American Street Car Scandal”




    Pacific Electric Railway streetcars stacked at a junkyard on Terminal Island, Los Angeles County
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_Streetcar_Scandal
1963                   Chevrolet Corvair – Unsafe at Any Speed?




                                                                Lateral load on the outside rear wheel causes it to "tuck under."
Source:   http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/gallery/090601/GAL-09Jun01-2120/media/PHO-09Jun01-164019.jpg, http://wirednewyork.com/forum/showthread.php?p=234574
1970                     Automobile as Part of Pop Culture




                                                              Janis Joplin – “Mercedes Benz”
Source: http://www.supermusic.cz/skupina.php?idskupiny=3351
1973            Oil Crisis – The End of Mass Motorization?




                               Leon Mill spray paints a sign outside his Phillips 66 station in Perkasie, PA
Source: http://www.daylife.com/photo/0b6o4m62PAg3b
1982 Japanese Automobiles Manufactured in the U.S.




     First Honda Accord manufactured in Marysville, OH (first Japanese automobile ever in the U.S.)
Source: http://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2009/07/milestones-50-years-of-american-honda/
1996                         GM EV1 – Are We Ready Yet?




                      The first mass-produced and purpose-designed electric vehicle of the modern era.
Source: http://www.motortrend.com/features/consumer/1011_gm_electric_vehicles_through_the_years/photo_03.html
2008                         The Big Three – Too Big to Fail?




                                    A. Mulally (Ford), R. Nardelli (Chrysler) R. Wagoner (GM), in Congress
Source: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/539498
2012             Autonomous Cars – No Driver Necessary?




                                          Google Autonomous Research Vehicle and State of Nevada Permit
Source: http://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/google-self-driving-car-brin-page-schmidt.jpg
               Silicon Valley – The Future of the Automobile?




Source: various press articles, author’s collection
                          A Car Is A Car, Is A Car, Is A Car!
          History of the Automobile2-7                                                                           Cars of the Future8-15
1769   Self-propelled wheeled automobile: Cugnot
1839   Electric vehicle: Anderson
1860   Gasoline engine: Lenoir
1876   Four-stroke gasoline engine: Otto
1885   Automobile powered by gas engine: Benz




                                                                     propulsion
1892   Commercial product: Daimler, Maybach
1893   Carburetor: Bánki, Csonka
1895   Diesel engine: Diesel                                                                                   1918                 1939
1899   Self starter: Coleman (1911 Kettering)




                                                  powertrain, chassis
1899   First recorded traffic fatality: Bliss, NYC.
1900   Steering wheel: Panhard, Levassor
1900   Hybrid powertrain: Porsche
1902   Magnetic ignition in production: Bosch
1901   Disc brakes: Lanchester
1902   Production-line manufacturing: Olds
1903   All wheel drive: Spyker                                                                                 1952                 1954
1903   Windshield wiper: Anderson
1920   Hydraulic brakes: Duesenberg
1948   Radial tires: Michelin
1951   Crumple zone: Mercedes-Benz
1967   Electronic fuel injection: Chrysler
                                                                                  safety




1971   Brake-slip control system: Chrysler
1974   Airbag: GM
1974   Catalytic converter: GM                                                                                 1964                 1990
1978   Electronic ABS: Mercedes-Benz
1981   Navigation system: Honda
                                                                                           driver assistance
                                                  clean tech




1995   Electronic Stability Control: Bosch
1995   Adaptive cruise control ACC: Mitsubishi
2001   Lane departure warning: Nissan
2002   Night vision: Toyota
2003   Automatic parallel parking: Toyota
2008   Traffic sign detection: BMW                                                                             2005                 2010
2010   Pedestrian detection: Volvo
The Future of the Automobile
Where are we going? – And what do we need to do?
The Future of the Automobile – Where Are We Going?

                                                     1




                  smart?

                              green?
                        light-weig
                                  ht?
                 connected?
      Challenges – Health, Environment, Economics

Injuries:              Motor vehicle crashes lead to for 32,788 fatalities in 2010,
                       95% of the cases human error at least contributing factor1,2

Congestion: Commuter gets delayed 36 hrs per year due to congestion,
            total 2.8B gal of fuel wasted, overall loss $87.2B3


Pollution:             Transportation in the U.S. alone produces 1.9B tons CO2,
                       burning 4.7B barrels petroleum per year4




1.  NHTSA, Washington, DC, 2011               3.  Texas Transportation Institute, College Station, TX, 2009
2.  NHTSA, Washington, DC, 2008               4.  Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC, 2010
Future of the Automobile – Key Fields and Disciplines


  Driver          Psychology             Mobile
Assistance         Sociology             Society

 Politics         Technology           Business
 Policies           Design            Economics


Connected Resources                     Alternative
 Mobility Environment                     Energy
                  Overview Driver Assistance

 GPS Receiver

                                                           Laser
                                                              Camera
                                                                   Radar




Speed Sensor                                              Automated Steering
    Motion Sensor                                       Automated Braking
      Central Processing Unit                        Automated Throttle

      Reduce Risk               Improve Efficiency          Improve Efficiency
      of Human Error            of Traffic Flow             of Vehicle Control
    Key Questions to Answer for Autonomous Driving

Under which conditions can autonomous vehicles:
          •  become affordable for mainstream consumers?
          •  make people feel safe and comfortable while being driven?
          •  release the driver from the need to monitor the car?
          •  interact with human controlled vehicles?
          •  be deployed without massive infrastructure investments?
                                 ! Vision and reality might be worlds apart!




  Consumers        Trust         Liability     Interaction   Independence
                  Overview Connected Mobility
                       INFRASTUCTURE




                       V2I
     V2V

                  010010101110
                  100110011011
                  000110101001
                  110101001101




                                                         x
                                                         x



Vehicle Data                                                   Personal Information
 Social / Communication                                       Trip Information
  Road / Traffic Condition                                   Entertainment

       Warn Driver,                    Inform Driver about          Educate Driver to
       Keep Awake                      Best Travel Option           Drive Efficiently
  Key Questions to Answer for Vehicle Communication

How can an online data connection to vehicles:
           •  improve safety, efficiency by sharing data among vehicles?
           •  improve productivity, enjoyment without distraction?
           •  benefit from existing communication infrastructure?
           •  utilize crowd sourcing for mobility specific needs?
           •  enable a seamless and sustainable mobility experience?
       ! The internet is already in the car – but needs to be more integrated!




    Safety       Productivity   Cell Phone        Crowd         Seamless
   Efficiency    Enjoyment       Networks        Sourcing        Mobility
                                   Overview Alternative Energy

                                                                            %!    "
                                                                              "




                                                           Energy Sources

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                     e- e e -
                         -
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           H+      H+        H+
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                         +
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                !""     "




Energy Storage                                          Energy Transformers


     --                                      --                   Improve efficiency
                                                                  and sustainability
       Key Questions to Answer for Electric Mobility

Under which conditions does electric mobility:
           •  slow down global warming?
           •  decrease dependence on (foreign / scarce) resources?
           •  decrease air pollution?
           •  integrate into electric infrastructure?
           •  become the better alternative for consumers?
                                   ! There is (probably) not just one answer!




    Climate       Resources        Pollution     Infrastructure   Consumers
                   Overview Mobile Society




Vehicle Concepts                                Usage / Ownership Models


       --                  Promote off-peak              Optimize vehilcle
                           travel, carpooling            use, alt. modes
        Key Questions to Answer for Mobile Society

Which relevance will personal mobility have regarding:
           •  access to vs. ownership of an automobile?
           •  the automobile as status symbol?
           •  new needs for the aging society?
           •  new values of the young generation?
           •  impact of mass motorization in emerging countries?
                    ! Considerations depend heavily on regional differences!




  Ownership         Status      Aging Society   New Values     Car Boom
Future of the Automobile – Key Fields and Disciplines


  Driver          Psychology             Mobile
Assistance         Sociology             Society

 Politics         Technology           Business
 Policies           Design            Economics


Connected Resources                     Alternative
 Mobility Environment                     Energy
Preliminary Schedule for ME302, Autumn Quarter 2012

24-Sep Instructions (Syllabus, Assignments, Background)
1-Oct   Performance, Diversity, Identity - What we need a car for
8-Oct   Information, Safety, Comfort - What happens between here and there
15-Oct Development, Manufacturing, Operation - How much it really costs
22-Oct Infrastructure, Environment, Policies - What we need to care about
29-Oct Driver Assistance (guest lecture, tbd)
5-Nov   Alternative Energy (guest lecture, tbd)
12-Nov Connected Mobility (guest lecture, tbd)
26-Nov Mobile Society (guest lecture, tbd)
3-Dec   Summary of Class, Further Lectures




                                                  Website: me302.stanford.edu
Assignment for ME302, Due Sep 28 12pm (FRIDAY)

What do you need a car for? Personal Use-Case and Vehicle
Everyone has already used a car, probably does so frequently, and maybe also
owns one. The question that the class will start out with is:
“What do we need a car for, what is our personal use-case?”.

To prepare the discussion in class, you are asked to write one half-page that
describes the typical situation when you use a car (or other “personal mobility
device” if you never use a car). Think about the following:
- destination, time of day, distance, personal feeling, passengers, roads!

For the other half-page list specifications that describe your vehicle of choice,
that is, how you would design / tailor your vehicle if you could do so. For this, list
about 10 different specs that apply to you (the following examples might help
but are by no means mandatory or complete):
- body style, seating/cargo capacity, pay load, gross weight, dimensions!
- horsepower, top speed, zero-to-sixty time, range, refueling time!
- miles-per-gallon efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions, fuel type!
- ownership model (permanently own vs. temporarily rent)!
- purchase price, monthly lease, operating cost per month / hour / mile!
- special features for safety, assistance, convenience, information, media!
Further Classes With Automotive / Mobility Applicability
Autumn Quarter
!  AA 116N: Electric Automobiles and Aircraft
!  LAW 488: Legal Aspects of Autonomous Driving
!  ME 250: Internal Combustion Engines
!  ME 302: The Future of the Automobile
!  STRAMGT 574: Strategic Thinking in Action – Electric Automobile Industry
Later Quarters
!  COMM 165N: Cars – Past, Present, and Future
!  ME 185: Electric Vehicle Design
!  ME 227: Vehicle Dynamics and Control
!  ME 236: Tales to Design Cars By
!  URBANST 167: The Automobile and the City
Ongoing
!  Sustainable Transportation Seminar Series

Further Information: www.automotive.stanford.edu >> Classes/Jobs

				
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