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					National Economic Indicators
December 10, 2012
Table of Contents
GDP                                                                               Page       Labor Market                                                                      Page
        Table: Real Gross Domestic Product ............................3                           Nonfarm Payroll Employment ................................. 25, 26
        Real Gross Domestic Product ........................................4                      Civilian Unemployment Rate ........................................ 27
                                                                                                   Civilian Labor Force ..................................................... 28
Households                                                                                         Aggregate Weekly Hours Index ................................... 29
        Retail Sales ....................................................................5         Average Hourly Earnings ............................................. 30
        Personal Income and Expenditures ................................6                         Employment Cost Indexes ........................................... 31
        Personal Saving ............................................................7              Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business ......................... 32
        Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks ..........................8                          Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business ............................. 33
        Single-Family Home Sales .......................................9, 10                Inflation
        Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits ...........11                               Table: Gauges of Inflation ........................................... 34
        Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits..............12                              Expenditure Price Indexes ..................................... 35, 36
Investment                                                                                         Consumer Price Indexes .............................................. 37
        Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment ..........................13                          Producer Price Indexes ................................................ 38
        Real Investment in Equipment and Software ................14                               Commodity Price Indexes ............................................ 39
        Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures ...............15                             Crude Oil Prices ..................................................... 40, 41
        Real Private Construction Put in Place .........................16                         TIPS Inflation Compensation........................................ 42
                                                                                             Monetary Policy
Trade                                                                                              Monetary Policy Instruments ........................................ 43
        Balance of International Trade......................................17                     Real Federal Funds Rate ............................................. 44
Manufacturing                                                                                      Expected Federal Funds Rate ...................................... 45
        Industrial Production Index, Manufacturing ...................18                           Federal Reserve System Assets .................................. 46
        Capacity Utilization Rate, Manufacturing ......................19                          Monetary Base ............................................................. 47
        ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index ...............................20                          M2 ................................................................................ 48
        Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes ..........................21                      Financial Markets
        Manufacturers' New Orders ..........................................22                     Money Market Rates .................................................... 49
        Core Capital Goods ......................................................23                Capital Market Rates.................................................... 50
        Inventory/Sales Ratios ..................................................24                Treasury Yield Curve ................................................... 51
                                                                                                   Risk Premium............................................................... 52
                                                                                                   Exchange Rate ............................................................ 53
Real Gross Domestic Product
                                                                   2011                         2012
                                                             Q3           Q4           Q1         Q2         Q3

    CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:

    Gross Domestic Product                                   1.3         4.1          2.0        1.3        2.7
      Personal Consumption Expenditures                      1.7         2.0          2.4        1.5        1.4
      Nonresidential Fixed Investment                       19.0        9.5           7.5        3.6       -2.2
       Structures                                           20.7       11.5          12.9        0.6       -1.1
       Equipment & Software                                 18.3        8.8           5.4        4.8       -2.7
      Residential Fixed Investment                           1.4       12.1          20.5        8.5       14.2
      Exports of Goods & Services                            6.1         1.4          4.4        5.3        1.1
      Imports of Goods & Services                            4.7         4.9          3.1        2.8        0.1
      Government Consumption Expenditures &
                                                            -2.9        -2.2            -3      -0.7        3.5
      Gross Investment
    Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers                       2.2         2.1          2.2        1.4        1.7
    LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:

      Change in Private Inventories                         -4.3       70.5          56.9       41.4       61.3
      Net Exports of Goods & Services                    -397.9 -418.0            -415.5 -407.4 -403.0


                                                                  Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   3
Real Gross Domestic Product
       Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
   8                                                                                                                 8
   7                                                                                                                 7
   6                                                                                                                 6
   5                                                                                                                 5
                                                                                                           Q3
   4                                                                                                      2.7%
                                                                                                                     4
   3                                                                                                                 3
   2                                                                                                                 2
   1                                                                                                                 1
   0                                                                                                                 0
  -1                                                                                                                 -1
  -2                                                                                                                 -2
  -3                                                                                                                 -3
  -4                                                                                                                 -4
  -5                                                                                                                 -5
  -6                                                                                                                 -6
  -7                                                                                                                 -7
  -8                                                                                                                 -8
  -9                                                                                                                 -9
 -10                                                                                                                 -10
       2003      2004        2005       2006       2007      2008   2009     2010       2011       2012       2013




                                                                           Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   4
Retail Sales
       12 Month % Change
 12                                                                                     12
 10                                                                                     10
  8                                                                                     8
                                                                            October
  6                                                                          3.8%       6
  4                                                                                     4
  2                                                                                     2
  0                                                                                     0
  -2                                                                                    -2
  -4                                                                                    -4
  -6                                                                                    -6
  -8       Month over Month % Change                                                    -8
                        Aug Sep Oct
 -10       Total        1.0 1.3 -0.3                                                    -10
 -12       x Gasoline   0.4 1.1 -0.5                                                    -12
 -14                                                                                  -14
    2006           2007         2008   2009   2010   2011         2012            2013




                                                            Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   5
Personal Income & Expenditures
      12 Month % Change
 6                                                                                                                  6



 4                                             Real Personal                                                        4
                                                  Income

                                                                                                     October
 2                                                                                                                  2
             Real Personal
         Consumption Expenditure

 0                                                                                                                  0



 -2                                                                                                                 -2

             Month over Month % Change
 -4                       Aug.   Sep.   Oct.                                                                        -4
         Income           -0.3    0.0   -0.1
         Expenditures      0.0    0.4   -0.3
 -6                                                                                                                -6
   2006           2007             2008             2009       2010         2011             2012              2013



                                                                      Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   6
Personal Saving Rate
     Percent of disposable personal income
 9                                                                                                    9


 8                                                                                                    8


 7                                                                                                    7


 6                                                                                                    6


 5                                                                                                    5
                                                                                           October
 4                                                                                          3.4%      4


 3                                                                                                    3


 2                                                                                                    2


 1                                                                                                  1
  2006             2007            2008      2009   2010       2011             2012            2013




                                                           Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   7
Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks
      Millions of Vehicles
 18                                                                                                  18
                    Autos and Light Trucks
                                                                                       November
 16                                                                                     15.5 mil.    16


 14                                                                                                  14


 12                                                                                                  12


 10                    Light Trucks                                                                  10


  8                                                                                                  8
                       Autos

  6                                                                                                  6


  4                                                                                                4
   2006             2007              2008   2009   2010      2011            2012             2013




                                                           Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   8
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
       Millions of Homes
6 .5                                                                                                                6 .5


6 .0                                                                                                                6 .0


5 .5                                                                                                                5 .5


5 .0                                                                                                                5 .0

                                                                                                     October
4 .5                                                                                                 4.2 mil.       4 .5


4 .0                                                                                                                4 .0


3 .5       Average Annual Existing Home Sales:                                                                      3 .5
                    1990 through 1999

3 .0                                                                                                                3 .0


2 .5                                                                                                             2 .5
    2006          2007            2008           2009   2010            2011              2012               2013




                                                               Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics    9
New Single-Family Home Sales
       Millions of Homes
 1.2                                                                                                        1.2

 1.1                                                                                                        1.1

 1.0                                                                                                        1.0

 0.9                                                                                                        0.9

 0.8                                                                                                        0.8
                                  Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999
 0.7                                                                                                        0.7

 0.6                                                                                                        0.6

 0.5                                                                                        October
                                                                                                            0.5
                                                                                            0.37 mil.
 0.4                                                                                                        0.4

 0.3                                                                                                        0.3

 0.2                                                                                                        0.2
    2006            2007   2008          2009           2010          2011           2012               2013



                                                                                Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   10
Private Single-Family Housing Starts & Permits
       Millions of Starts & Permits
 2.0                                                                                                                   2.0

 1.8                                                                                                                   1.8

 1.6                                                                                                                   1.6

 1.4                                                                                                                   1.4

 1.2                                                                                                                   1.2
                                                       1990 - 1999 Average Housing Starts

 1.0                                         Starts                                                                    1.0

 0.8                                                                                                                   0.8
                                                                                                         October

 0.6                                                                                                                   0.6
                            Permits
 0.4                                                                                                                   0.4

 0.2                                                                                                                   0.2
    2006             2007             2008            2009          2010            2011         2012              2013




                                                                                            Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   11
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
       Millions of Starts & Permits
 0.7                                                                                                                0.7


 0.6                                                                                                                0.6

                                                  Permits
 0.5                                                                                                                0.5


 0.4                                                                                                                0.4
                                                                                                     October


 0.3                                                    1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts
                                                                                                                    0.3


 0.2                                                                                                                0.2

                                        Starts
 0.1                                                                                                                0.1


 0.0                                                                                                               0.0
    2006             2007             2008       2009         2010            2011            2012             2013




                                                                                         Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   12
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
      Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
 25                                                                                                          25

 20                                                                                                          20

 15                                                                                                          15

 10                                                                                                          10
                                                                                                Q3
  5                                                                                           -2.2%          5

  0                                                                                                          0

 -5                                                                                                          -5

-10                                                                                                          -10

-15                                                                                                          -15

-20                                                                                                          -20

-25                                                                                                          -25

-30                                                                                                          -30
      2006           2007            2008            2009   2010     2011            2012             2013




                                                                   Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   13
Real Investment in Equipment & Software
      Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
 25                                                                                                         25
 20                                                                                                         20
 15                                                                                                         15
 10                                                                                            Q3
                                                                                                            10
                                                                                             -2.7%
 5                                                                                                          5
 0                                                                                                          0
 -5                                                                                                         -5
-10                                                                                                         -10
-15                                                                                                         -15
-20                                                                                                         -20
-25                                                                                                         -25
-30                                                                                                         -30
-35                                                                                                         -35
      2006           2007            2008            2009   2010     2011            2012            2013




                                                                   Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   14
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
       Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
 40                                                                                                         40
 35                                                                                                         35
 30                                                                                                         30
 25                                                                                                         25
 20                                                                                                         20
 15                                                                                                         15
 10                                                                                                         10
                                                                                               Q3
  5                                                                                          -1.1%
                                                                                                            5
  0                                                                                                         0
  -5                                                                                                        -5
 -10                                                                                                        -10
 -15                                                                                                        -15
 -20                                                                                                        -20
 -25                                                                                                        -25
 -30                                                                                                        -30
 -35                                                                                                        -35
       2006          2007            2008            2009    2010     2011           2012            2013




                                                                    Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics   15
Real Private Nonresidential Construction Put In Place
       2005$, Billions
 360                                                                                                                            360

 340                                                                                                                            340

 320                                                                                                                            320

 300                                                                                                                            300

 280                                                                                                                            280

 260                       Twelve-Month Moving Average                                                                          260

 240                                                                                                                            240
                                                                                                                  October

 220                                                                                                                            220

 200                                                                                                                            200

 180                                                                                                                            180
    2006             2007              2008             2009              2010             2011            2012             2013

       Notes: Deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in nonresidential structures.




                                                                                                      Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   16
Balance of International Trade
       Current $, Billions
 -20                                                                                              -20

 -25                                                                                              -25

 -30                                                                                              -30

 -35                                                                                              -35
                                                                                 September
 -40                                                                              -$42 bil.       -40

 -45                                                                                              -45

 -50                                                                                              -50

 -55                                                                                              -55
                                       Twelve-Month Moving Average
 -60                                                                                              -60

 -65                                                                                              -65

 -70                                                                                              -70
    2006              2007   2008   2009        2010           2011        2012               2013




                                                                      Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   17
Industrial Production Index: Manufacturing
       2007 = 100
 105                                                                              105


 100                                                                              100

                                                                   October
                                                                     93
  95                                                                              95


  90                                                                              90


  85                                                                              85


  80                                                                              80


  75                                                                             75
    2006            2007   2008   2009   2010   2011        2012             2013




                                                   Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   18
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing
      Percent
 82                                                                            82

 80                                                                            80
                                                                   October
                                                                   75.9%
 78                                                                            78

 76                                                                            76

 74                                                                            74

 72                                                                            72

 70                                                                            70

 68                                                                            68

 66                                                                            66

 64                                                                            64

 62                                                                           62
   2006         2007   2008   2009   2010   2011         2012             2013




                                               Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   19
ISM: Purchasing Managers Index
      Diffusion Index, percent
 65                                                                                                65


 60                                                                                                60


 55                                                                                   November     55
                                                                                        49.5

 50                                                                                                50


 45                                                                                                45


 40                                                                                                40


 35                                                                                                35


 30                                                                                              30
   2006             2007         2008   2009   2010         2011             2012            2013




                                                      Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics   20
ISM: Business Survey Indexes
      MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:                                        NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:

                                            Oct.      Nov.                                            Oct.     Nov.

      Purchasing Managers Index             51.7      49.5           NonManufacturing Index           54.2     54.7

      Production                            52.4      53.7           Business Activity                55.4     61.2

      New Orders                            54.2      50.3           New Orders                       54.8     58.1

      Employment                            52.1      48.4           Employment                       54.9     50.3

      Supplier Deliveries                   49.6      50.3           Supplier Deliveries              51.5     49.0

      Inventories                           50.0      45.0           Inventories                      46.5     47.0

      Prices                                55.0      52.5           Prices                           65.6     57.0

      Backlog of Orders                     41.5      41.0           Backlog of Orders                49.0     53.5

      New Export Orders                     48.0      47.0           New Export Orders                47.5     48.0

      Imports                               47.5      48.0           Imports                          49.5     55.5

   DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.



                                                                         Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics   21
Manufacturers’ New Orders
       Current $, Billions
 500                                                                                         500
                                                                               October
 480                                                                                         480

 460                                                                                         460

 440                                                                                         440

 420                                                                                         420
                             Twelve-Month
                             Moving Average
 400                                                                                         400

 380                                                                                         380

 360                                                                                         360

 340                                                                                         340

 320                                                                                         320

 300                                                                                         300
    2006             2007          2008       2009   2010   2011        2012             2013




                                                                   Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   22
Core Capital Goods
      Current $, Billions
 75                                                                                                                    75
                                        New Orders


 70                                                                                                                    70

                                                                                                           October
 65                                                                                                                    65


 60                         Shipments                                                                                  60


 55                                                                                                                    55


 50                                                                                                                    50


 45                                                                                                                  45
   2006              2007            2008             2009             2010         2011         2012            2013

       Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.




                                                                                           Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   23
Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
  1.7 Percent                                                                      1.7


  1.6                                                                              1.6

                  Retailers

  1.5                                                                              1.5

                                                                    September
  1.4                                                                              1.4
                  Total Business


  1.3                                                                              1.3
                   Manufacturers

  1.2                                                                              1.2


  1.1                                                                             1.1
     2006       2007          2008   2009   2010   2011        2012           2013




                                                          Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics   24
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
       Millions of Persons
 139                                                                                    139

 138                                                                                    138

 137                                                                                    137

 136                                                                                    136

 135                                                                                    135
                                                                          November
 134                                                                       134 mil.     134

 133                                                                                    133

 132                                                                                    132

 131                                                                                    131

 130                                                                                    130

 129                                                                                    129

 128                                                                                  128
    2006            2007     2008   2009   2010   2011            2012            2013




                                                  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   25
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
        Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
 500                                                                                                             500
 400                                                                                              Oct. & Nov.    400
                                                                                                     Avg.
 300                                                                                                             300
 200                                                                                                             200
 100                                                                                                             100
   0                                                                                                             0
-100                                                                                                             -100
-200                                                                                                             -200
-300           Monthly Change                                                                                    -300
-400           Nov.      146                                                                                     -400
               Oct.      138
-500                                                                                                             -500
               Sep.      132
-600           Aug.      192                                                                                     -600
               Jul.      181
-700                                                                                                             -700
-800                                                                                                             -800
       2006          2007           2008           2009              2010   2011          2012           2013




                                                                             Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   26
Civilian Unemployment Rate
11.0 Percent                                                                                                                   11.0
10.5                                                                                                                           10.5
10.0                                                                                                                           10.0
 9.5                                                                                                                           9.5
 9.0                                                                                                       FOMC Forecast
                                                                                                                               9.0
 8.5                                                                                                                           8.5
 8.0                                                                                                                           8.0
 7.5                                                                                       November                            7.5
                                                                                             7.7%
 7.0                                                                                                                           7.0
 6.5                                                                                                                           6.5
 6.0                                                                                                                           6.0
 5.5                                                                                                                           5.5
 5.0                                                                                                                           5.0
 4.5                                                                                                                           4.5
 4.0                                                                                                                           4.0
    2006         2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012         2013           2014         2015

       Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the September 12-13 meeting.




                                                                  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics   27
Civilian Labor Force Ratios
      Percent of Population
 67                                                                                                 67
                                       Labor Force
 66                                                                                                 66

 65                                                                                                 65

 64                                                                                                 64

 63                                  Employed                                                       63

 62                                                                                                 62

 61                                                                              November           61

 60                                                                                                 60

 59                                                                                                 59

 58                                                                                                 58

 57                                                                                               57
   2006            2007       2008       2009        2010   2011             2012             2013




                                                            Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   28
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index
       Index, 2007 = 100
 102                                                                                            102


 100                                                                                            100


  98                                                                                            98
                 Quarterly Average
                                                                                   November

  96                                                                                            96


  94                                                                                            94


  92                                                                                            92


  90                                                                                            90


  88                                                                                          88
    2006           2007              2008   2009   2010   2011            2012            2013




                                                          Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   29
Average Hourly Earnings
       12 Month % Change
 4.0                                                                               4.0
                                                         Monthly % Change
                                                          Nov.      0.2%
 3.5                                                       Oct.     0.0%           3.5
                                                          Sep.     0.3%
                                                          Aug.     0.0%
 3.0                                                                               3.0


 2.5                                                                               2.5

                                                                     November
                                                                       1.7%
 2.0                                                                               2.0


 1.5                                                                               1.5


 1.0                                                                             1.0
    2007            2008   2009   2010   2011             2012               2013




                                            Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   30
Employment Cost Index
      Year over Year % Change
4.0                                                                                                                  4.0


3.5                                                                                                                  3.5
                                         Wages and Salaries

                                                                Benefits Cost
3.0                                                                                                                  3.0


2.5                                                                                                                  2.5


                                                                                                           Q3
2.0                                                                                                                  2.0

          Q3.2012 YoY % Change
1.5       Total Comp.      2.0%                                                                                      1.5
          Benefits Cost    2.6%                                 Total Compensation
          Wages & Salaries 1.7%

1.0                                                                                                                 1.0
   2006          2007             2008            2009        2010          2011             2012               2013




                                                                           Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   31
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
       Year over Year % Change
  6                                                                                                6
                                                                      Quarterly Change
                                                                       at Annual Rate
  5                                                                    Q3 12      2.9%             5
                                                                       Q2 12      1.9%
                                                                       Q1 12     -0.5%
  4                                                                    Q4 11      2.8%
                                                                                                   4

  3                                                                                                3
                                   Post-War Average
  2                                                                                       Q3       2
                                                                                         1.7%

  1                                                                                                1

  0                                                                                                0

  -1                                                                                               -1

  -2                                                                                             -2
    2006          2007           2008         2009    2010   2011            2012            2013




                                                             Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   32
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business
       Year over Year % Change
  5                                                                                                                        5

  4                                                                                                                        4

  3                                                                                                                        3

  2                                                                                                                        2
                                                                                                                Q3
  1                                                                                                                        1
                                                                                                               0.1%

  0                                                                                                                        0

  -1                                                                                                                       -1

  -2                                                                                                                       -2
               Quarterly Change
  -3            at Annual Rate                                                                                             -3
                 Q3 12 -1.9%
  -4             Q2 12 -0.5%                                                                                               -4
                 Q1 12    6.4%
  -5                                                              Alternate Series                                         -5
                 Q4 11 -3.3%

  -6                                                                                                                      -6
    2006             2007            2008             2009            2010           2011            2012             2013

       Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.




                                                                                     Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   33
Gauges of Inflation
    Expenditure Price Indexes                       [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
                                                                                        Sep.       Oct.     YoY %
       Personal Consumption Expenditures                                                 4.0        1.5        1.7
        Core (excludes Food* and Energy)                                                 0.7        1.6        1.6

    Consumer Price Indexes                          [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
                                                                                        Sep.       Oct.     YoY %
       All Items                                                                         7.1        1.8        2.2
         Core (excludes Food and Energy)                                                 1.8        2.2        2.0


    Producer Price Indexes                          [Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
                                                                                        Sep.       Oct.     YoY %
       Finished Goods                                                                   14.4       -1.8        2.3
         Core (excludes Food and Energy)                                                 0.0       -2.6        2.1
       Core Intermediate Goods                                                           7.1        0.0       -0.5
       Crude Goods                                                                      38.6       10.7        0.0

    Spot Commodity Price Index                                     [Percent Change from Previous Month]:
                                                                                         Oct.     Nov.      YoY %
       CRB Spot Commodity Price Index                                                    -1.6      -1.7       -3.6

    Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.



                                                                   Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics   34
Overall Consumer Expenditure Price Index
        12 Month % Change
 5.0                                                                                                                         5.0
 4.5                                                                                                                         4.5
 4.0                                                                                                                         4.0
 3.5                                                                                                                         3.5
 3.0                                                                                                                         3.0
 2.5                                                                                               FOMC Forecast             2.5
 2.0                                                                                                                         2.0
 1.5                                                                                                                         1.5
                                                                                            October
 1.0                                                                                         1.7%                            1.0
 0.5                                                                                                                         0.5
 0.0                                                                                                                         0.0
 -0.5                                                                                                                        -0.5
 -1.0                                                                                                                        -1.0
 -1.5                                                                                                                      -1.5
     2006         2007         2008         2009        2010         2011        2012         2013         2014        2015

        Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the September 12-13 meeting.




                                                              Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics   35
Core Consumer Expenditure Price Index
       12 Month % Change
 3.0                                                                                                                        3.0



 2.5                                                                                                                        2.5


                                                                                                   FOMC Forecast
 2.0                                                                                                                        2.0



 1.5                                                                                                                        1.5
                                                                                         October
                                                                                          1.6%



 1.0                                                                                                                        1.0



 0.5                                                                                                                    0.5
    2006        2007        2008         2009        2010        2011         2012         2013        2014         2015

       Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the September 12-13 meeting. Core PCE
       Price Index includes expenditures on food services.



                                                            Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics   36
Consumer Price Indexes
      12 Month % Change
 6                                                                                             6

 5                                   All Items                                                 5

 4                                                                                             4

 3                                                                                             3
                                                                                 October

 2                                                                                             2

 1                        Core CPI                                                             1

 0                                                                                             0

 -1                                                                                            -1
                                                                       Sep.    Oct.
                                                        CPI: All Items 2.0%    2.2%
 -2                                                     Core CPI       2.0%    2.0%            -2

 -3                                                                                          -3
   2006         2007      2008       2009        2010   2011            2012             2013




                                                        Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   37
Producer Price Indexes
      12 Month % Change
 12                                                                                                     12

 10                                                                                                     10

  8                                                                                                     8
                                            Core Finished
                                               Goods
  6                                                                                                     6

  4                                                                                                     4
                                                                                          October

  2                                                                                                     2

  0                                                                                                     0

 -2                                                                                                     -2
                           All Finished
 -4                            Goods                                                                    -4
                                                                        October (percent)
 -6                                                               All Finished Goods     2.3%           -6
                                                                 Core Finished Goods 2.1%

 -8                                                                                                   -8
   2006           2007    2008            2009          2010   2011              2012             2013




                                                               Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics   38
Commodity Price Indexes
 30 12 Month % Change                                                                       12 Month % Change
                                                                                                            45
 27                                                                                                         40
 24                                    PPI Core                                                             35
 21                                  Intermediate
                                        Goods                                                               30
 18                                   (Left Axis)                                                           25
 15                                                                                                         20
 12
                                                                                                            15
  9
                                                                                                            10
  6
                                                                                                            5
  3                                                                                               November
                                                                                                            0
  0
                                                                                                            -5
 -3                       Commodity
 -6                     Research Bureau                                                                     -10
                        Spot Commodity                                                                      -15
 -9                       Price Index
-12                       (Right Axis)                                                                      -20
                                                                     Price Indexes           Oct.  Nov.
-15                                                           PPI Core Intermed. Goods      -0.5%   ---     -25
-18                                                           CRBS Spot Commodities         -4.1% -3.7%     -30
-21                                                                                                         -35
   2006         2007         2008            2009           2010            2011             2012       2013




                                                Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics   39
Crude Oil Prices
 150 Current $/ Barrel                                                                                                     150
                                                                                                                Futures
 140                                                                                                             Price     140
 130                                                                                                                       130
 120                                                                                                                       120
 110                                                                                                                       110
 100                                                                                                                       100
  90                                                                                                          December     90
  80                                                                                                             7th       80
  70                                                                                                                       70
  60                                                                                                                       60
  50                                    Spot Price                                                                         50
  40                                                                                                                       40
  30                                                                                                                       30
  20                                                                                                                       20
  10                                                                                                                       10
    0                                                                                                                    0
     1994      1996        1998        2000       2002           2004   2006       2008       2010        2012       2014

       Notes: Spot and Futures Prices are for Brent Crude Oil.




                                                             Source: Financial Times, New York Mercantile Exchange, Haver Analytics   40
Real Crude Oil Prices
        2005 $/Barrel
 130                                                                                                                         130
 120                                                                                                                         120
                                                                                                                 October
 110                                                                                                                         110
 100                                                                                                                         100
  90                                                                                                                         90
  80                                                                                                                         80
  70                                                                                                                         70
  60                                                                                                                         60
  50                                                                                                                         50
  40                                                                                                                         40
  30                                                                                                                         30
  20                                                                                                                         20
  10                                                                                                                         10
   0                                                                                                                       0
    1985       1988        1991        1994       1997        2000        2003        2006      2009        2012       2015

       Notes: Brent Crude Oil Spot Price is deflated using the Overall PCE Price Index.




                                                                Source: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics   41
TIPS Inflation Compensation
        Percent
 4.5                                                                                    4.5
 4.0                                                                                    4.0
                  5-Year
 3.5          5 Years Ahead                                        December             3.5
                                                                      7th
 3.0                                                                                    3.0
 2.5                                                                                    2.5
 2.0                                                                                    2.0
                  5-Year
 1.5                                                                                    1.5
 1.0                                                                                    1.0
 0.5                                                                                    0.5
 0.0                                                                                    0.0
 -0.5                                                                                   -0.5
 -1.0                                                                                   -1.0
 -1.5                                                                                   -1.5
 -2.0                                                                                   -2.0
 -2.5                                                                                   -2.5
 -3.0                                                                                 -3.0
     2007          2008       2009   2010   2011   2012           2013            2014




                                                          Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   42
Monetary Policy Instruments
       Percent
 7.0                                                                                           7.0
 6.5                                                                                           6.5
 6.0                                                                                           6.0
         Federal Funds Target Rate
 5.5                                                                                           5.5
 5.0                                                                                           5.0
 4.5                                                                                           4.5
 4.0                                                                                           4.0
 3.5                                                                                           3.5
 3.0                Primary Credit Rate
                                                                                               3.0
 2.5                                                                                           2.5
 2.0                                                                                           2.0
 1.5                                                                                           1.5
        Discount Rate                                                       December 7th
 1.0                                                                                           1.0
        (discontinued)                    Federal Funds Rate
 0.5                                         Target Range                                      0.5
 0.0                                                                     0.0
    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014




                                                               Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   43
Real Federal Funds Rate
       Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index
  6                                                                                                                        6

  5                                                                                                                        5

  4                                                                                                                        4

  3                                                                                                                        3

  2                                                                                                                        2

  1                                                                                                                        1

  0                                                                                                                        0

  -1                                                                                                       November        -1

  -2                                                                                                                       -2

  -3                                                                     -3
    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

       Notes: Most recent observation uses expected Fed funds rate as implied by Fed funds futures contracts.




                                                              Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics   44
Expected Federal Funds Rate
       Percent
0.35                                                                                  0.35

                  October 24, 2012
0.30                                                                                  0.30
                  Decem ber 7, 2012

0.25                                                                                  0.25


0.20                                                                                  0.20


0.15                                                                                  0.15              Current
                                                                                                    Target Range
                                                                                                      for Federal
                                                                                                     Funds Rate
0.10                                                                                  0.10


0.05                                                                                  0.05


0.00                                                                                  0.00
                 December 12                        January 30   March 20
        Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.




                                                                            Source: Chicago Board of Trade    45
Federal Reserve System Assets
 $, Billions
                  TALF: $1                                          Term ABS Lending
  3000                                                              Facility (TALF): $1
                                   Total: $2,890                                                      Total: $2,904
               AIG & Bear                                                                                                            Foreign
               Stearns: $2                                                                                                           Currency
  2800
                                Miscellaneous: $271                                              Miscellaneous: $271                  Swaps:
                                                                           AIG & Bear
                                                                                                                                       $12
                 Foreign                                                   Stearns: $1
  2600
                 Currency
                Swaps: $12
  2400


  2200                           Agency MBS: $868                                                 Agency MBS: $884


  2000


  1800
                Agency                                                        Agency
               Debt: $83                                                     Debt: $79
  1600
                                 Treasury Securities:                                             Treasury Securities:
                                       $1,652                                                           $1,656
  1400


  1200
                                     10/24/2012                                                         12/5/2012
          Notes: Discount Window lending is less than $1 bln. as of 1/25. Foreign Currency Swaps were less than $1 bln. until 10/19/11.


                                                                                                         Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   46
Monetary Base
       Current $, Billions
2800                                                                             2800

2600                                                                             2600
                                                            November 30th
2400                                                                             2400

2200                                                                             2200

2000                                                                             2000

1800                                                                             1800

1600                                                                             1600

1400                                                                             1400

1200                                                                             1200

1000                                                                             1000

 800                                                                             800

 600                                                                            600
    2008                     2009   2010   2011      2012                   2013




                                                  Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   47
M2
      12 Month % Change
 12                                                                                 12
 11                                                                                 11
 10                                                                                 10
  9                                                                                 9
  8                                                                                 8
  7                                                                                 7
  6                                                                     October     6
                                                                         7.3%
  5                                                                                 5
  4                                                                                 4
  3                                                                                 3
  2                                                                                 2
  1                                                                                 1
  0                                                                     0
   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013




                                                     Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   48
Money Market Rates
      Percent
  5                                                                                                          5


  4                                                                                                          4


  3                                                                                                          3
                               Federal Funds Rate


  2                                                                                                          2

                                 3-Month LIBOR               Primary Credit Rate
                                                                                   December
  1                                                                                   7th                    1


       3-Month T-Bill
  0                                                                                                          0


 -1                                                                                                        -1
   2008                 2009             2010       2011        2012               2013                2014




                                                           Source: Board of Governors, Financial Times, Haver Analytics   49
Capital Market Rates
        Percent
 10.5                                                                                                             10.5

  9.5                                                                                                             9.5

  8.5                                Corporate BBB                                                                8.5
                                       Bond Rate
  7.5                                                                                                             7.5
                                                  30 Year
                                               Conventional
  6.5                                          Mortgage Rate                                                      6.5

  5.5                                                                                                             5.5

  4.5                                                                                                             4.5
                                                                                       December 7th
  3.5                                                                                                             3.5
        Corporate AAA
  2.5     Bond Rate        10-Yr. Treasury                                                                        2.5
                             Bond Rate
  1.5                                                                                                             1.5

  0.5                                                                                                           0.5
     2008               2009           2010            2011           2012               2013               2014




                                                               Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics   50
Treasury Yield Curve
       Percent
 3.0                                                                                  3.0
                  October 24, 2012

                  December 7, 2012
 2.5                                                                                  2.5



 2.0                                                                                  2.0



 1.5                                                                                  1.5



 1.0                                                                                  1.0



 0.5                                                                                  0.5



 0.0                                                                                  0.0
             6M   2 Yrs 3 Yrs            5 Yrs                               10 Yrs
                                     Time to Maturity




                                                        Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   51
Risk Premium
       Percent, BofA Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield
 8.0                                                                                                                       8.0
 7.5                                                                                                                       7.5
 7.0                                                                                                                       7.0
 6.5                                                                                                                       6.5
 6.0                                                                                                                       6.0
 5.5                                                                                                                       5.5
 5.0                                                                                                                       5.0
 4.5                                                                                                                       4.5
 4.0                                                                                                                       4.0
 3.5                                                                                                                       3.5
 3.0                                                                                                                       3.0
 2.5                                                                                                          December     2.5
                                                                                                                 7th
 2.0                                                                                                                       2.0
             10 Year Average Risk Premium
 1.5                                                                                                                       1.5
 1.0                                                                                                                       1.0
 0.5                                                                                                                     0.5
    2008                    2009                   2010                    2011               2012                   2013




                                                                             Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics   52
Exchange Value of the USD
      Index, March 1973 = 100
135                                                                                                                      135



125                                                                                                                      125



115                                                                                                                      115



105                                                                                                                      105



 95                                                                                                                      95

                                                                                                         November

 85                                                                                                                      85



 75                                                                                                                     75
   1980        1984         1988        1992         1996         2000         2004         2008       2012         2016
      Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.




                                                                                           Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics   53

				
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