Pandemic Fluppt - Bolton Primary Care Trust.ppt

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					Pandemic Flu

Update to NHS Bolton
Jan Hutchinson, DPH
 A pandemic has been forecast for some time – last world
  wide pandemic was in 1968
 Concern had centred on Avian Flu (H5N1) but we are
  now dealing with swine flu – H1N1(described as 2 parts
  pig, one part bird and one part human)
 Cases can be traced back over recent years to outbreaks
  in N Carolina associated with pig farms, and more
  recently to Mexico
 WHO announced alert level 6, 2 weeks ago – sustained
  outbreaks in 2 or more countries
 UK alert levels are not being used as the spread across
  the UK is so variable
Latest Situation
 52160 laboratory confirmed cases worldwide,
  since the outbreak began
 231 deaths (113 in Mexico)
 21449 cases in USA, 7624 in Mexico, 5710 in
  Canada, 4315 in Chile, 2436 in Australia
 2905 cases in UK, with 1 death
 Most cases in Scotland, W Midlands and London
 43 cases in NW, of which 11 are in GM and 1 in
What do we know about the virus?
 Appears to affect children and young adults under 30 far
  more than other age groups (few cases in over 50s and
  very few in over 65s)
 Seems to be a highly transmissible infection, but in most
  people, causes only a mild illness, very similar to
  seasonal flu – high temperature, cough and cold
 Viruses behave very unpredictably – this one could
  mutate and become more serious
 Particular concern about H1N1 mixing with seasonal flu in
  the autumn (so great interest in monitoring what happens
  in the southern hemisphere during their winter flu season)
What are we doing to prepare?
 We have been preparing for a flu pandemic for the past 5 years, via a
  multi-agency borough planning group.
 This has now become the borough’s Pandemic Influenza
  Coordination group, which has met three times in the past 6 weeks
 Tactical plan in place, constantly under review
 Sub groups include health and social care group, communications,
  anti-viral distribution / flu line, vulnerable people, and bereavement
 Links in place with the resilience forum and SCG (Strategic
  Command Group) at Greater Manchester level
 Reporting arrangements in place to SCG and on to COBR (cabinet
  office) and NHS NW through to Department of Health.
 NHS and Council have their own pandemic flu planning and response
  groups in place, and meeting regularly.
 NHS Bolton has an outbreak team, which has met at least weekly
  since the outbreak began.
Action taken so far………….
 In containment phase – emphasis on slowing the spread. Swabbing
  potential cases, prescribing anti-virals to confirmed cases and
  household contacts.
 May very soon move to next phase – mitigation – in which anti-virals
  will be given to people with symptoms of flu, and testing for H1N1 will
  cease (NB anti virals may be given to high risk groups only – this is
  the strategy in Scotland, USA)
 Plans for 4 x ‘Assessment and Collection points’ across Bolton, one
  of which could be opened at 24 hours notice, and could operate 24/7
  if required
 Good stock of anti-virals and PPE (masks etc) are available in Bolton
  and more being delivered
 Local Flu line plans in place (may be required if national flu line is not
Action so far…………..
 Testing plans eg Anti-viral collection point, local flu line
 Multi-agency exercise on June 12 used a worst case
  scenario – very useful learning
 Business continuity plans reviewed and revised
 Ensuring synergy between plans – especially NHS
  Bolton, hospital, and social care
 Plans for support to vulnerable individuals (eg flu friends,
  home delivery of anti-virals) via CVS
 Preparation for mass vaccination
 Communications – very important messages about
  infection control (‘Catch it, Bin it, Kill it’) and self care
What will happen next?
 The big question – we don’t know.
 We need to take this very seriously – even
  if it’s only a mild illness, the impact on the
  NHS would be a concern (particularly
  primary care)
 We need to continue to plan carefully so
  that we are ready to deal with whatever
  challenges come along

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