ENVIRONMENT CANADA.pdf

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					 ENVIRONMENT CANADA




        Don C. MacIver and Heather Auld
Adaptation and Impacts Research Division (AIRD)
                       +
 Joan Klaassen, Grace Koshida and Sadia Butt


                         Page 1
Torontonians understand the impacts of
atmospheric change and adapt to its effects

                  E= MC2
                 E = MC
                                Climate2
     Environment = Management XX Climate2
   Environment = Management
                    where

   Environment means a Sustainable and
            Healthy Environment,
  Management means adaptive management
                actions, and
  Climate2 means Natural x Human-Induced
       Changes in the Climate System
                            Page 2
 Ontario
• GETTING WARMER                WARMER

• NON-LINEAR




                   LITTLE     WARMER
                   CHANGE
                     Page 3
Ontario
• GETTING WETTER
                              WETTER
• NON-LINEAR




                            WETTER
                   Page 4
Celebrity Storms: Visible
impacts with extremes…



                                                             forest fires
                                          floods



                       Waves and storms


                                                           droughts, heat spells




Saguenay flooding (1996),
26 millions m3 of water
and 9 millions tons of debris

                                          The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions
                                               Page 5
                                           customers without electricity for up to 30 days
New Hazards Website:             http://www.hazards.ca



Week of Oct 28 – Nov. 4/2007 -- successful requests: 7,598
CLIMATE and INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY
  Small Increases = Escalating Infrastructure Damages




                              Page 7
   NEW SCIENCE INTO SOCIETAL ACTIONS:
   Heat Alert and Hot Weather Response
    System - Adapting to Extreme Heat




• 2003 European heat wave … > 35,000 deaths
• 1995 Chicago heat wave … > 600 deaths

                                         Page 8
Drought Impacts in Urban Terrestrial
Environments

•   Toronto has 80,000 ha of green
    spaces (12.7%)
     –   This includes 1500 named parks
         and 3 million trees.
•   Prolonged and more intense
    drought events have occurred in
    southern Ontario
•   Turf and Forest managers in
    GTA have seen serious impacts
    from 2005-2007:
     –   Turf dieback and tree death
     –   Wilting, scorching of trees and
         shrubs
     –   More invasive insects and
         disease
     –   Severe soil cracking




                                           Page 9
Key steps for a Drought Plan

• Determine thresholds
• Prioritize assets
• Assess resources
• Assign implementation
  staff
• Communicate with
  stakeholders
    – Residents, internal,
      external




                             Page 10
Climate Change

                                                                                      …one of the major
                                                                                       challenges of the 21st
                                                                                       Century to conserving
                                                                                       biodiversity , combating
                                                                                       desertification and
                                                                                       ensuring the sustainable
                                                                                       use of natural resources



  Northern hemisphere temperature observations and reconstructions from tree cores




                                                                                     Page 11
                            Canadian Climate Change Scenarios
                                                   www.cccsn.ca
                              Network (CCCSN)                                                                                                                            Don MacIver, Neil Comer,
                                                                                                                                                                       Brad Bass, Philippe Gachon




                                    Scatterplot                                 Data                                   Bioclimate                        Publications &
Scenario Maps
                                         s                                                                              Profiles                             Links
                                  New Variables and Extremes   New Downscaling Models and Tools                      Bioclimate Profiles for more     Regional Websites & Impacts and
Updated and redesigned
                                  Climate Change Projections   New interfaces Download data and                      than 500 locations               Adaptation Research Papers
Fourth Assessment (AR4) results
                                                               visualization of maps from Global Climate Models &    New Climate Change Science       Expert Advice on Climate Change
                                                               Canadian Regional Climate model                                                        Scenario Applications

                                                                 Downscaling Tools                                                                        Impacts and Adaptations Research
                                                                 SDSM - Statistical DownScaling                                                                        Papers
                                                                                                                                                    EC Publications
                                                                        Model                                                                        H. Auld and D. MacIver, 2005. Cities and Communities: The Changing
                                                                                                                                                     Climate and Increasing Vulnerability of Infrastructure, Occasional Paper 3,
                                                                 LARS-WG - Stochastic Weather                                                        Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                      H. Auld and D. MacIver, 2007. Changing Weather Patterns, Uncertainty
                                                                            Generator                                                                and Infrastructure Risks: Emerging Adaptation Requirements, Occasional
                                                                                                                                                     Paper 9, Environment Canada.
                                                                 ASD - Automated Statistical                                                         E. Barrow, et al., 2004. Climate Variability and Change in Canada: Past,
                                                                                                                                                     Present and Future, Environment Canada.
                                                                      Downscaling tool                                                               S. Cohen and T. Neale, 2006. Participatory Integrated Assessment of
                                                                                                                                                     Water Management and Climate Change in the Okanagan Basin, British
                                                                                                                                                     Columbia: Final Report, Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     A. Fenech, et al., 2006. The Americas: Building the Adaptive Capacity to
                                                                                                                                                     Global Environmental Change, Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     M. Karsh, et al., 2007. Climate-Based Predictions Of Forest Biodiversity
                                                                                                                                                     Using Smithsonian’s Global Earth Observing Network, Occasional Paper 8,
                                                                                                                                                     Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     D. MacIver and M. Mirza, 2005 - 2007. Adaptation Science Newsletter,
                                                                                                                                                     Issues 1 - 8, Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     D. MacIver, 2005. Mainstreaming Adaptation and Impacts Science into
                                                                                                                                                     Solutions, Occasional Paper 2, Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     D. MacIver, et al., 2006. Influences on the Sugar Maple Industry in North
                                                                                                                                                     America, Occasional Paper 7, Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     D. MacIver, et al., 2007. Coastal Zone Management under a Changing
                                                                                                                                                     Climate in the Great Lakes, Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     B. Mills, et al., 2007. The Road Well-Travelled: Implications of Climate
                                                                                                                                                     Change for Pavement Infrastructure in Southern Canada, Environment
                                                                                                                                                     Canada.

                                                                       Download Data                                                                 M. Mirza, 2004. Climate Change and the Canadian Energy Sector: Report
                                                                                                                                                     on Vulnerability Impact and Adaptation, Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     L. Mortsch, et al., 2005. Development of Climate Change Scenarios for
                                                                                                                                                     Impact and Adaptation Studies in the Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Basin,
                                                                Canadian Observations                                                                Environment Canada.
                                                                                                                                                     L. Mortsch, et al. (eds.), 2006. Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities:
                                                                Statistical Downscaling Input Data                                                   Vulnerable to Climate Change and Response to Adaptation Strategies,
                                                                                                                                                     Environment Canada.
                                                                Reanalysis Products
                                                                                                                                                    Other Publiciations
                                                                                                                                                     B. Bass and B. Baskaran, 2003. Evaluating Rooftop and Vertical Gardens
                                                                                                                                                     as an Adaptation Strategy for Urban Areas, Report no. NRCC-46737.
                                                                                                                                                     G. Koshida, et al., 2007. Tap Runs Dry: Managing urban water supply now
                                                                                                                                                     and in the future in Canada. In: Proceedings of the Third International
                                                                                                                                                     Conference on Climate and Water, September 3-6, 2007, Helsinki, Finland.
                                                                                                                                                     pp. 532-537.
                                                                                                                                                     E. Oberndorfer, et al., 2007. Green Roofs as Urban Ecosystems: Ecological
                                                                                                                                                     Structures, Functions, and Services, BioScience, 57(10), 823-833.

                                                                                                                                                    Links
                                                                                                                                                     Canadian Atmospheric Hazards Network: www.hazards.ca
                                                                                                                                                     Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis: www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca
                                                                                         Global & Canadian                                           University of British Columbia:
                                                                                                                                                     www.forestry.ubc.ca/Default.aspx?alias=www.forestry.ubc.ca/aird
                                                                                         Regional Climate                                            University of Toronto:
                                                                                                                                                     www.environment.utoronto.ca/Research/ResearchProjects/CurrentProjects/AIRG
                                                                                         Models                                                      University of Waterloo: www.fes.uwaterloo.ca/research/aird/index.html

                                                                                         Over 30 GCMs in
                                                                                         total

                                                                                                           Page 12
                                New Climate Change
                                Science (www.cccsn.ca)




• New Global Climate Change Models
• New Regional Climate Change Models
• New Climate Change Scenarios, Impacts
and Adaptation
NEW INTEGRATED MODELS:
BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

             PARTNERED
             WITH THE
             SMITHSONIAN
             INSTITUTION,
             COMMUNITIES
             AND OTHERS




                    Page 14
Increased risk of new diseases

         West Nile Virus




                                     Lyme Disease
                           Page 15
      NEW SCIENCE INTO CODES AND STANDARDS
Canada’s Situation:
• >$5.5 Trillion (1999$) in civil infrastructure holdings
• NEW Codes and Standards urgently needed: past climate extremes not the future

                              ADAPTATION                         Canadian public investment/GDP
                              DEFICIT IS                          5%
                              INCREASING
                                                                  4%

                                                                  3%

                                                                  2%

                                                                  1%

                                                                  0%
                      AIRD/regional projects on                        1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
                      infrastructure and changing
                      climate: Partners include
                      Canadian Commission for
                      National Building Code, CSA,
                      Canadian Council of
                      Professional Engineers,
                      Conservation Authorities and
                      provincial partners, NRTEE,
                      WMO, etc

                                                                 The Great Ice Storm
                                                     Page 16   (1998),1,5 millions customers
                                                          without electricity for up to 30 days
    NEW SCIENCE INTO MUNICIPAL BY-LAWS
City of Ottawa By-Law … Winter Road and Sidewalk Maintenance
                                 Page 17
Success in Adapting Infrastructure for the Changing Climate:
                          IDF Pilot Project




  • Improved IDF Extreme Rainfall Design Values for Water
  Infrastructure
  • 20 Municipalities in South Central Ontario and 3 Provincial
  Ministries
                                        Page 18
  • Don Haley is the contact for Conservation Authorities
    Urban Climate Research Group

• 3D Atmospheric Modelling of the
  Changing Urban Environment
• Environmental Prediction and
  Response Planning
• Helping implement Adaptation
  Solutions
   – Institutional, Technological, Behavioural,
     Economic, Regulatory and Partnerships
• Helping integrate adaptation and
  mitigation plans within the context of
  sustainable development
• Sound science advice to Council and
  Torontonians
                                   Page 19
7+$ 1. <28




      Page 20

				
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