FOTOOKSIDANSI U GRANI膶NOM SLOJU ATMOSFERE NA .ppt

Document Sample
FOTOOKSIDANSI U GRANI膶NOM SLOJU ATMOSFERE NA .ppt Powered By Docstoc
					    Effect of O3 and PM10 on
   mortality increase during a
            heat-wave

Nenad Kezele, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Bijenička 54, Zagreb,
Croatia




                       AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                               25 May 2007
HEAT RELATED DEATHS

   Heat-wave conditions cause excess mortality in
    exposed population – hyperthermia,
    cardiovascular disease
   Daily mortality trend follows temperature
    trends, with peaks in deaths occuring not more
    than 2 days after temperature peak



                    AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                            25 May 2007
PARTICLE POLLUTION
   Sources: vehicle exhaust,
    road dust, smokestacks,
    forest fires ect.
   PM consists of hundreds of
    liquid and solid chemicals
   Researchers still does not
    know what make fine
    particles toxic. Whether it is
    their size or the chemistry
    (PAH and transition metals)



                             AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                                     25 May 2007
OZONE OR PHOTOSMOG POLLUTION
Sources in urban environment: cycle of photochemical
reactions




                        AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                                25 May 2007
OZONE POLLUTION
   Begin of modern
    measurements in Croatia
          1975 - first modern
           continuous instrumental
           monitoring of tropospheric
           ozone in Croatia at 65 m
           height in the city of Zagreb




                                AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                                        25 May 2007
Are some of the heat related excess
deaths attributable to concurrent
increases in air pollution?
                      and

What is the percentage of air pollution
related deaths in total excess deaths
         during a heatwave?
              AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                      25 May 2007
   Up to now several studies (McMichael et al.,
    1996; Rooney et al., 1998; Stedman, 2004)
    indicated that a significant part (40 to 60%) of
    excess mortality during the heat wave could be
    the result of air pollution.




                     AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                             25 May 2007
Table 2.1. Dose Response Coefficients


           We use this estimate here on the basis of the published dose-
            response coefficients for PM10 and ozone (Stedman 2004;
            COMEAP 1998).

                                                                              Dose-response coefficient
Pollutant                               Health Outcome
                                                                              (24 hour mean)
                                        Deaths brought forward (all causes)   + 0.75% per 10 µg/m3
PM     10
                                        Respiratory hospital admissions       + 0.80% per 10 µg/m3

                                        Deaths brought forward (all causes)   + 0.6% per 10 µg/m3
Ozone                                   Respiratory hospital admissions       +0.7 % per 10 µg/m3


Source: COMEAP (1998)


                                                    AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                                                            25 May 2007
Analysed period: Heat wave, 8. – 14. August, 2003.
Data: Average daily values for ozone and PM10
   DAY                   ZAGREB                                  RIJEKA

            O3 (μg/m3)         PM10 (μg/m3)         O3 (μg/m3)        PM10 (μg/m3)


    8. 8.     170.3                20.5                85.6               61.9

    9. 8.     171.5                23.0                84.1               86.8

   10. 8.     207.8                16.9                88.8               54.6

   11. 8      184.4                24.3                80.1               77.2

   12. 8      197.7                35.4                72.5               48.0

   13. 8      239.1                20.6                85.4               105.6

   14. 8      245.4                18.3                90.2               84.1

                           AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                                   25 May 2007
   For these seven days the average mortality for
    Zagreb corresponds (very roughly) to 9710 ×
    7/365 = 186 and Rijeka to 1559 × 7/365 = 29.
    With the assumption of independence i.e.
    additivity of health effects of these pollutants
    the calculated excess deaths for Zagreb and
    Rijeka based on mentioned dose-response
    functions are shown in next slide.



                     AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                             25 May 2007
    Calculated excess deaths for Zagreb and Rijeka based on
    mentioned dose-response functions and for analysed 7
    days period during the heat wave in August 2003.


                          Zagreb                                Rijeka



                                      PM10 +                             PM10 +
                   PM10   ozone                       PM10      ozone
                                      ozone                              ozone

 With limiting
                    3      11            14            1.6        0       1.6
    value
Without limiting
                    3      22            25            1.6       1,5      3.1
     value



                                AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                                        25 May 2007
                          Conclusion:
• According to the Zagreb results and assuming identical conditions for all
Croatia during the same period of 7 days in August we come to an estimate of
70 excess deaths caused by combined effects of PM10 and ozone assuming
the suggested threshold value of 100 mg m–3 for ozone, or of 125 excess
deaths without using a threshold.
•These numbers accounts only for about 40 to 60 % of total excess death
during the heath wave (Rooney et al., 1998).
•This analysis is performed in analogy to much better evaluations supported
by data shows that increased mortality existed and, if we want to get a handle
on preventing excess death cases in the future, a much better assessment of
the relevant factors such as air pollution, epidemiological and mortality
statistics on a daily basis in Croatia is needed.



                             AMGI/EURASAP workshop, Zagreb
                                     25 May 2007

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:1
posted:12/19/2012
language:simple
pages:12
shenreng9qgrg132 shenreng9qgrg132 http://
About