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Global scenario for CO2 and GHG emissions

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					              Research Institute of Innovative
              Technology for the Earth




                          Global Scenario for CO2 and GHG Emissions

                                                   August 15, 2011
                                             Systems Analysis Group, RITE,



1. Introduction
   RITE has been developing comprehensive scenarios toward sustainable development and climate stabilization
since FY2007 as a part of the “International Research Promotion Program for Global Environment,” which is
supported by the Japanese government (The ALPS project; ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable
development and climate stabilization).1)-4) In this paper, the developed CO2 and GHG emission scenarios by
using a global GHG mitigation model6), 7) (see Appendix) is outlined. This scenario was developed in FY2010
based on the medium socioeconomic scenario (Scenario A)5) of the ALPS Project where latest economic
conditions are taken into account.

2. Global CO2 and GHG emission scenarios
 The developed scenario for CO2 and GHG emissions in this paper is a baseline scenario (scenario without
GHG mitigation policy).

2.1 Global energy-related CO2 emission scenario
  Figure 1 shows the energy-related CO2 emission scenario by world major country / region. The world total
emission in the year 2008 was 38 Gton-CO2/yr. For future, increase in emission is expected to continue by our
analysis: emission in the year 2020 is 38Gton-CO2/yr, emission in the year 2050 is 57Gton-CO2/yr. Temporary
emission reductions are observed in developed countries by the influence of the economic crisis that started in
2008, but the impact on the growing trend of global emission is not large.
  As shown in Figure 2, regional emission shares changed substantially from the year 1990 to the year 2008.
This change will become larger toward the year 2050 and the share of emissions from Annex I countries who
have legal obligation of emission reduction under the Kyoto Protocol including Japan will become smaller. The
share of the emissions from those countries will be smaller in the year 2020 than a quarter (23%) in the world.
Therefore, it is important to promote the Copenhagen Accord that demands participation of all of the major
emitters for achieving effective CO2 emission reduction.




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                                                     Research Institute of Innovative
                                                     Technology for the Earth




                                         60000
                                                                                                                                                   Other Non-Annex I
                                                                                                                                                   countries
                                                                                                                                                   Brazil
Energy-related CO2 Emission [MtCO2/yr]



                                         50000
                                                                                                                                                   Korea

                                         40000                                                                                                     India

                                                                                                                                                   China
                                         30000
                                                                                                                                                   Other Annex I
                                                                                                                                                   countries
                                                                                                                                                   Japan
                                         20000
                                                                                                                                                   EU27(+12)

                                         10000                                                                                                     EU15

                                                                                                                                                   United States
                                                 0
                                                 1990            2000        2010            2020           2030             2040      2050


                                          Figure 1 Energy-related CO2 emission scenario by world major countries / regions
                                                                          (Historical data from 1990 to 2008 are from IEA8))


                                               Other Non-
                                                                                                                       Other Non-
                                                 Annex I            1990                                                                    2008
                                                                                                                         Annex I
                                                countries
                                         Brazil 17%                                                                     countries                           United States
                                                                                        United States
                                          1%                                                                              21%                                   20%
                                                                                            24%
                                         Korea                                                                      Brazil
                                          1%                                                                         1%                                              EU15
                                         India                                                                      Korea                                            11%
                                          3%           China                                                         2%
                                                                                                EU15                                                                        EU27(+12)
                                                        11%                                                        India
                                                                                                15%                                                                            2%
                                                                                                                    5%
                                                                                                EU27(+12)                           China                                    Japan
                                                                                                   5%                                23%                                      4%
                                         Other Annex I                                                                                                      Other Annex I
                                           countries                                    Japan                                                                 countries
                                             18%                                         5%                                                                     11%

                                            Other Non-              2020                                                                     2050
                                              Annex I                                                                                                      United States
                                                                                  United States
                                             countries                                                                                                         14% EU15
                                                                                      17%
                                               23%
                                                                                                                                                                      8%
                                                                                                EU15                                Other Non-                                EU27(+12)
                                          Brazil                                                 9%                                   Annex I                                    3%
                                           1%                                                      EU27(+12)                         countries
                                                                                                                                                                               Japan
                                         Korea                                                         2%                              29%
                                                                                                                                                                                1%
                                          2%                                                          Japan
                                                                                                             Brazil
                                         India                                                          3%                                                            Other Annex I
                                                                                                              1% Korea
                                          6%                     China                                              1%                           China                  countries
                                                                                            Other Annex I                                                                  7%
                                                                  28%                           countries                                         25%
                                                                                                   9%                      India
                                                                                                                           11%


                                                                         Figure 2 Share of energy-related CO2 emission
                                                                   (1990 and 2008:IEA8), 2020 and 2050:RITE estimation)

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                                        Research Institute of Innovative
                                        Technology for the Earth




2.2 Global GHG emission scenario
   Figure 3 shows GHG emission scenarios by world major country / region. Increase in GHG emission is also
expected as well as energy-related CO2 emission: emission in the year 2020 is 55Gton-CO2eq/yr, emission in the
year 2050 is 79Gton-CO2eq/yr.
   Figure 4 shows regional shares of GHG emission in the world and the share of “other Non-Annex I countries”
is a little larger for GHG than for energy-related CO2 emission. Correspondingly, the share of Annex I countries,
who have legal obligation under the Kyoto Protocol, is slightly decreased (22%) in the year 2020 as compared
with the share of energy-related CO2 emission. This is due to large emission of agricultural CH4 and N2O in
other Non-Annex I countries.

                                80000
                                                                                                          Other Non-Annex I
                                                                                                          countries
                                70000                                                                     Brazil

                                60000                                                                     Korea
    GHG emission [MtCO2eq/yr]




                                                                                                          India
                                50000
                                                                                                          China
                                40000
                                                                                                          Other Annex I
                                                                                                          countries
                                30000                                                                     Japan

                                20000                                                                     EU27(+12)

                                                                                                          EU15
                                10000
                                                                                                          United States
                                    0
                                    1990            2000         2010      2020   2030    2040     2050
                                             Figure 3       GHG emission scenario by world major country / region
    (Historical data are from UNFCCC9)for Annex I countries and from IEA8) for Non-Annex I countries)




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                  Research Institute of Innovative
                  Technology for the Earth




          Other Non-
                                 1990                                            Other Non-           2005
            Annex I
                                                                                   Annex I
           countries                            United States                                                        United States
                                                                                  countries
             22%                                    19%                                                                  18%
                                                                                    25%


      Brazil                                                                                                                    EU15
       2%                                                  EU15                                                                 11%
                                                           13%                                                                       EU27(+12)
      Korea
                                                                                 Brazil                                                 2%
       1%
                                                                EU27(+12)         3%
      India                                                                                                                              Japan
                      China                                        4%     Korea
       5%                                                                                                                                 4%
                       12%                                                 1%
                                                                    Japan       India             China
       Other Annex I                                                 4%          6%                19%                  Other Annex I
         countries                                                                                                        countries
           18%                                                                                                              11%

        Other Non-               2020                                                                 2050
                                             United States                                                      United States
          Annex I                                                                                                           EU15
                                                 15%                          Other Non-                            12%
         countries                                                                                                           7% EU27(+12)
                                                         EU15                   Annex I
           27%                                                                                                                     2%
                                                           9%                  countries
                                                             EU27(+12)           33%                                                Japan
                                                                2%                                                                   1%
                                                                 Japan
                                                                  3%                                                           Other Annex I
        Brazil                                                                                                                   countries
         3%                                                                                                                         7%
          Korea                                          Other Annex I          Brazil
           1%                                              countries             2%                          China
                                  China                       8%                                              24%
                                                                                 Korea
          India                    25%                                            1%
           7%                                                                             India
                                                                                          11%

                                             Figure 4 Share of GHG emission
                                 9)
(1990 and 2005:UNFCCC                 for Annex I countries and IEA8)for Non-Annex I countries, 2020 and 2050:RITE
                                                          estimation)



References
1) RITE; ALPS project annual report 2007 (in Japanese),
   http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/h19seikahoukoku/h19ichiran-hyou.htm (2007)
2) RITE; ALPS project annual report 2008 (in Japanese)
   http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/h20seikahoukoku/h20ichiran-hyou0.html (2008)
3) RITE; ALPS project annual report 2009 (in Japanese)
   http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/h21seikahoukoku/h21ichiran-hyou.html (2009)
4) RITE; ALPS project annual report 2010 (in Japanese)
   http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/h22seikahoukoku/h22ichiran-hyou.html (2010)
5) RITE; Development of Long-term Socioeconomic Scenarios –Population, GDP-
   http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/labo/sysken/research/alps/baselinescenario/E-ScenarioOutline_POPGDP_201
   10815.pdf (2011)
6) RITE; RITE GHG Mitigation Assessment Model,
   http://www.rite.or.jp/Japanese/labo/sysken/about-global-warming/download-data/RITE_GHGMitigationAss
   essmentModel_20090529.pdf (2009)
7) K. Akimoto et al., “Estimates of GHG emission reduction potential by country, sector, and cost”, Energy
   Policy, Vol.38, Issue 7, pp.3384-3393 (2010)
8) IEA, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, OECD/IEA (2010)
9) UNFCCC, GHG data from UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146.php (Last
   Access; 8th, August 2011)

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              Research Institute of Innovative
              Technology for the Earth




Appendix: Outline of GHG mitigation model of RITE

  The global GHG mitigation model6), 7) consists of 3 modules; 1) Principal Assessment Model DNE21+, for
energy-related CO2, 2) Non-energy CO2 emission scenario, that assumes specific non-energy CO2 emissions
independent of mitigation levels of energy-related CO2 emissions, 3) Non-CO2 GHG Assessment Model, for 5
kinds of GHG emissions of the Kyoto Protocol (Figure A-1).



    1. DNE 21+ Model                       Non-Energy CO2                  2. Non-CO2 GHG
                                           Emissions Scenario              Assessment Model
     • Assessment model for                 • Projection module for         • Assessment model for
       energy-related CO2                     non-energy CO2                  the 5 non-CO2 GHG
       emissions                              emissions                       emissions (CH4, N2O,
     • 54 regions in the                    • 54 regions in the               HFCs, PFC, SF6)
       world                                  world                         • 18 regions in the
     • Bottom-up modeling                   • Estimations of                  world (Afterwards, finer
       (About 300 specific                    sectoral non-energy             allocation is conducted
       technologies are                       CO2 emissions to be             to 54 regions, based
       modeled)                               consistent with GDP             on the historical data)
                                              and production                • The methodology is
                                              activities                      similar to the USEPA
                                                                              assessment



            Estimates of the 6 GHG emissions, emission reduction costs
            and potentials, and specific cost-effective measures for
            emission reductions

                                 Figure A-1 Outline of GHG mitigation model

   DNE21+ model is an optimization type liner programming model, minimizing the total worldwide energy
system costs over all the assessment period (up to FY 2050).
   Figure A-2 shows outline of energy flows in DNE21+ model. The energy supply sectors are connected to the
energy end-use sectors, energy export/import are considered, and the lifetimes of facilities are taken into account,
so that assessments are made while maintaining complete consistency across the energy supply & demand sides.
Base on the Scenario A, which is a long-term socioeconomic scenario5) developed in ALPS project, service
demand scenarios (e.g., the production amount of crude steel in Iron & Steel sector, the traffic amount in the
transportation sector) are bottom-upped for sectors (energy-intensive industrial sectors, road transportation
sectors and some equipments in residential & commercial sectors), and other remaining sectors are top-downed
and their energy demands are exogenously assumed. The model solves the best mix of technologies to meet these
demand scenarios. Here, costs and energy efficiencies of individual technologies used in both the energy supply
sectors and the end-use sectors are explicitly modeled. So, detail evaluation of technologies is conducted and this
is one of the salient features of our model. As another feature of the model, the fine regional segregation (the
world is divided into 54 regions in country level.) is noted because it enables to analyze with regional differences
in consideration (e.g., potentials of renewable energy).




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                Research Institute of Innovative
                Technology for the Earth




                                                                            Industry
     Fossil fuels
      Coal                                           Energy conv.             Iron & steel
      Oil (conventional, unconv.)                    processes
      Gas (conventional, unconv.)                                             Cement
                                                     (oil refinery, coal
                                                     gasification, bio-
                                                                              Paper & pulp
    Unit                                             ethanol, gas             Chemical (ethylene, propylene,
 production                                          reforming, water         ammonia)
    cost                                             electrolysis etc.)
                                                                              Aluminum
               Cumulative production
                                                                              Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, and
                                                                              electricity <Top-down modeling>
    Renewable energies
     Hydro power & geothermal
     Wind power                                        Electric             Transport
     Photovoltaics                                     Power                  vehicle
     Biomass                                           generation
                                                                              Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, and
                                                                              electricity <Top-down modeling>
    Unit
   supply
    cost                                                                    Residential & commercial
                                                                              Refrigerator, TV, air conditioner
              Annual production                            CCS                etc.
                                                                              Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, and
     Nuclear power                                                            electricity <Top-down modeling>

                             Figure A-2        Outline of energy flows in DNE21+ model

   For non-energy CO2 emission, one specific scenario is developed based on historical data of UNFCCC and
IEA and the cement production scenario which is used in DNE21+ model.
   The Non-CO2 GHG model has been developed based on the studies by US EPA with some adjustments by
latest historical data. The regional baseline emissions (emissions without GHG mitigation policy) were estimated
for five gases: CH4 in seven sectors, N2O in six sectors, HFCs in one sector, PFC in one sector and SF6 in one
sector. The emission reduction is calculated by using elasticity representing the relationship between non-CO2
GHG mitigation ratio relative to the baseline emissions and marginal abatement costs based on the database for
emission reduction amounts and reduction costs of individual measures in non-CO2 GHG mitigation. So, the
model is not a direct bottom-up model; however, marginal costs and potentials of non-CO2 GHG mitigation are
eventually based on the bottom-up analysis of the US EPA.
   This is the model outline. More information is available in references 6) and 7). CO2 emissions from
international aviation/marine bunkers and land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are not evaluated in
this model. So, these emissions are not included in the emission scenario in this paper.

■ CO2 and GHG emission scenarios update
  Let us note that this paper may be occasionally updated without notice so that the latest information
on historical emissions, economic trends and energy prices can be reflected in the scenario.

Contact to:
  Kohko Tokushige, Fuminori Sano, Keigo Akimoto
  Systems Analysis Group
  Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
  9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa-shi Kyoto 619-0292 JAPAN
  PHONE: +81-774-75-2304, FAX: +81-774-75-2317, E-mail:sysinfo@rite.or.jp

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