prop 8

Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey Prepared by David Binder Research Conducted November 6th - 16th, 2008 Research Methodology Methodology Respondents 800 voters living in California who voted in the November 2008 election, plus an additional oversample of 266 Asian, Latino, and African American voters. Margin of Error Dates Margin of error: 3.0% Poll was conducted November 6th to 16th, 2008. 3 Summary Findings 4 Summary Findings: Overall Overall Results • Proposition 8 was passed on November 4, 2008 by a margin of 52% to 48% by a margin of about 600,000 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast. • Two areas of the state stood out: The Central Valley counties overwhelmingly supported the measure by 71%-29%, while the more populous Bay Area was strongly opposed (39%-61%). However, the Southern California counties which comprise 55% of the total vote supported Prop 8 by 54% to 46%. In Los Angeles County, 69% voted for Barack Obama for President, but slightly less than 50% voted no on Proposition 8 – a gap of 19 percentage points (compared to a 13 point differential statewide). 5 Summary Findings: Demographics Results • by Subgroup • Political ideology was the factor that corresponded most highly to the Proposition 8 vote, with 22% of liberals voting yes on 8, compared to 51% of moderates and 82% of conservatives. Election day exit polls that showed 70% of African American voters supporting Proposition 8 appear incorrect. Our survey shows 58% of Blacks voting for 8. Precincts in Southern California’s most concentrated areas of African American voters – Carson and Compton – show 65% support for Prop 8. Predominately African American precincts in other areas of LA County and in San Francisco showed support in the low-to-mid 50 percent range. The factor next most important in determining vote on Prop 8, after ideology, was religion, with voters who worship regularly being strongly more likely to support Prop 8, by a 70% to 30%, while those who worship less often voted 38% to 62% against Prop 8. • Blacks and Latinos who worship less than once a week opposed Prop 8. 6 Summary Findings: Reasons for Vote and Influencers Reasons for Vote • • • Supporters of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that marriage is between a man and a woman. Secondarily, Prop 8 supporters disclosed religious reasons as motive for their support. Opponents of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that same sex marriage was an issue of civil rights and equal rights, as well as their view that everyone should have the freedom to marry the person of their choosing. Most voters stated they were most influenced by discussions with friends, family and coworkers. This pool of voters opposed Proposition 8. About one-quarter said they had a strong personal opinion on the issue that was not swayed by other communications. This pool voted yes. About 8% said they were swayed by the church. This pool voted yes by 94% to 6%. Influ- • encers • • 7 Summary Findings: Communications TV ads • • • Among the yes on 8 ads, the message that stood out was that Prop 8 will cause the teaching of same sex marriage in schools. Among the no on 8 ads, most saw the ad featuring Senator Dianne Feinstein. The ads with Feinstein and Sam and Julia Thoron were statistically more likely to cause a no vote than were other ads. The History ad narrated by Samuel L. Jackson was also convincing. Vast majority of voters said mail and telephone calls were not influential. Only 5% visited official campaign websites, but those who visited the no on 8 website rated it more influential than visitors to the yes site. About 10% said they received information from a church, and 49% felt this information was convincing – a much higher proportion than other sources, such as labor unions, newspaper editorials and television ads. • Other Communication • sources • 8 Summary Findings: Messaging Messa- • ging Only about 17% of yes on 8 voters could name something tangible that could cause them to change their mind and support same sex marriage, including: • • • • Call marriage by another name Ensure that same sex marriage will not be taught in schools Ensure that churches will not be forced to perform same sex marriages Approval, or lack of formal opposition, from churches or religious leaders 9 Election Results California Election Results November 4, 2008 President Obama 8,274,473 61.1% No Prop 8 6,401,482 47.7% McCain 5,011,781 37.0% Yes 7,001,084 52.3% Gap between Obama vote and No on 8 vote was 1.8 million, or 14% Prop 8 vs Obama Prop 8 Map – 52% Yes vs 48% No Presidential Vote -- 61% Obama vs 37% McCain 12 LA County had 19% difference between vote for Obama and vote against Prop 8 Region LA County San Diego County Other Southern California Central Valley Sacramento / Tahoe Region Bay Area Central Coast Inland / Mountains / Other Total % Obama % No on 8 % Obama – Prop 8 69 54 51 46 55 74 64 46 61 50 46 40 29 43 61 56 40 48 19 8 11 17 12 13 8 6 13 Other Southern California: Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, Ventura Central Valley: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare Sacramento / Tahoe: Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Yolo Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma Central Coast: Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz Inland / Mountains / Other: Alpine, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity,. Tuolumne, Yuba 13 Prop 8 generated far more interest than any other state proposition Which one of the 12 state propositions on the November 4 th ballot were you most interested in? Prop 1A Prop 2 Prop 3 Prop 4 Prop 5 Prop 6 Prop 7 Prop 8 Prop 9 0 Prop 10 Prop 11 Prop 12 All equally None of them Don't know 1 4 4 4 1 3 2 1 2 5 5 5 63 Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008 14 The outcome of Prop 8 was more important to Yes voters than No voters As you may know, Proposition 8 passed. How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 8? Yes Voters No Voters 74 59 18 22 5 10 3 7 0 2 Very Important Somewhat Important % Very Important • Evangelical Christians: 77% (vs all others: 61%) • Women: 69% (vs Men: 60%) • Latinos: 67% • Overall: 65% • Whites: 64% Not too important Not at all important Don't know Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008 15 Vote by Subgroups Prop 8 by gender % voting yes Women 49 Men 54 0 50 17 Prop 8 by gender and family status % voting yes Women, parents 47 Women, not parents 50 Men, parents 60 Men, not parents 52 0 50 18 Prop 8 by age % voting yes Under 30 45 30s 41 40s 52 50-64 47 65+ 0 50 65 19 Prop 8 by ethnicity % voting Yes White 50 Black 58 Hispanic/Latino 59 Asian 48 Other 0 39 50 20 Prop 8 by party % voting yes Democrats 30 Independents 52 Republicans 81 0 50 21 There is a direct correspondence between voters’ self-placement on an ideological scale and the percent supporting Proposition 8 % voting yes 86 79 70 53 32 21 22 Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate, lean liberal Moderate Moderate, lean Somewhat conservative Conservative Very conservative Prop 8 by religion % voting yes Catholic 55 Protestant 66 Jewish* 17 Other 49 No Religion 0 29 50 23 Prop 8 by frequency of worship % voting yes Once a week or more 70 Few times a month 49 Special occasions/holiday 44 Hardly ever 30 0 50 24 Prop 8 by education level % voting Yes High school graduate 56 Some college or associate degree 57 College graduate 50 Postgraduate study 40 0 50 Source: media exit poll 25 Prop 8 by presidential vote % voting Yes Barack Obama 30 John McCain 86 0 50 26 Prop 8 by knowledge of LGBT people % voting Yes Are LGBT 5 Know LGBT 48 Do not know LGBT 60 0 50 27 Timing & Influences Yes voters are driven by the belief that marriage is between a man and a woman What are the reasons why you voted YES on Proposition 8? BASE: Those voting YES Believe marriage is between a man and woman Religious reasons Don’t believe in same sex marriage Family reasons, should not be taught in school Moral issues Thought it was the right way to vote Homosexuals can live in union; do not call it marriage Already voted on, already have equal rights No conviction; does not affect me 40 29 15 9 5 5 5 5 2 Q8 N=549 29 No voters are driven by belief in equal rights and freedom to choose whom to marry What are the reasons why you voted NO on Proposition 8? BASE: Those voting NO Believe in: civil rights, equal rights, freedom to choose whom to marry 40 Prop 8 discriminates, is unequal, wrong to deny people their rights Should not be on ballot, govt shouldn’t be allowed to decide who marries whom / unconstitutional / takes away rights Not my right to tell someone who they can or cannot marry 26 18 11 Know or is homosexual and/or wants chance to marry partner 6 Q9 N=515 30 Majority of voters were most influenced by discussions with friends and family and their personal opinion, while 8% were most influenced by religion. Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8? Discussion with friends, families and coworkers Personal opinion The information in the ballot pamphlet Religion/ Bible Television advertisements Newspaper articles Newspaper editorials 3 2 6 8 12 29 26 Q12 (N=1066) 31 Voters influenced by discussions more likely to vote no, voters influenced by the religion more likely to vote yes Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8? % voting Yes Discussion with friends, families and coworkers Personal opinion The information in the ballot pamphlet Religion/ Bible Television advertisements Newspaper articles Newspaper editorials 31 47 58 43 94 45 53 Q12 (N=1066) 32 Communications Ads, mail & discussions with friends and family had the greatest reach. Phone calls and newspaper endorsements also had strong reach. Received information this way Television ads Mail Discussions with friends and family Phone calls Newspaper endorsements Discussions with clergy, members Ads in ethnic media Church or synagogue Labor union Ads on web sites Official web sites 90 86 85 36 27 24 19 10 9 8 7 Q28-34 (N=1066) 34 While about one-third of voters report receiving a phone call about Prop 8, 95% say it wasn’t effective 64 95 Number of phone calls received Influence of phone calls 12 9 6 6 3 6 or more 3 More likely to vote yes 2 More likely to vote no No influence No calls 1 2 3 4 or 5 Q63 (N=1066) Seeing gay couples being married on TV did not significantly affect the vote on Proposition 8 Have you ever seen same sex couples get married on the news or on television? (IF YES:) Did that make you more likely to vote YES on 8, more likely to vote NO on 8, or did it make no difference to you? 55 20 14 11 Did Not See Saw, but made no difference Saw, made more Saw, made more likely to vote YES on likely to vote NO on 8 8 Q63 (N=1066) About 69% saw a Yes on 8 ad, but only 18% found them convincing 31 23 72 Number of yes on 8 ads seen 17 Convincingness of TV ads 14 15 9 Did not see/not sure 1 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 20 20 or more 9 9 Very convincing somewhat convincing not too convincing not convincing at all Q63 (N=1066) The Yes on 8 ad most frequently recalled is about the teaching of same sex marriage in schools. Can you describe for me one television ad for yes on 8 that you remember that was convincing? Teaching same sex marriage in schools Child with book about a king marrying a king (prince marrying prince, etc.) Traditional marriage (man marrying woman) Mayor talking about same sex marriage/ proposition 8 Children on field trip to gay wedding Parents talking about homosexual son or daughter Commercial about kids (not specific) Religious commercials about same sex marriage Discrimination commercial Spanish commercial talking about same sex marriage None 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 18 52 Q27 (N=549) 38 No on 8 Ads Seen: Dianne seen by most Percent recall seeing ad Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no to discrimination History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with Japanese Interment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose discrimination Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights for their lesbian daughter as for their straight sons Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by major papers, unions, and corporations. Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from getting married with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person you love?” Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right to marry the person she chooses Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relative who had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their families grow stronger" 67 43 38 35 34 33 24 Q28-34 (N=1066) 39 No on 8 Ads Seen: Among viewers, Thoron ad is more convincing Very convincing Somewhat convincing Dianne 17 23 23 13 14 16 18 15 13 20 19 17 17 16 32 36 History (SLJ) Thoron 43 32 31 33 34 Endorsements Garden wedding Ellen Families Q28-34 (N=1066) 40 Voters who saw Dianne and Thoron are more likely to have voted no on Prop 8. % Yes on 8 Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no to discrimination History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with Japanese Interment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose discrimination Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights for their lesbian daughter as for their straight sons Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by major papers, unions, and corporations. Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from getting married with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person you love?” Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right to marry the person she chooses Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relative who had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their families grow stronger" *Significant at the .001 level in logistic regression analysis 46 47 42 48 50 52 46 Q28-34 (N=1066) 41 Takeaways Majority of voters believed that Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage All Voters Agree Don't Know Disagree Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage 58 5 37 Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church 49 32 19 Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to children in elementary school 37 17 46 Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA Supreme Court 29 29 41 Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches 19 36 45 Q49-58 (N=1066) 43 Majority of voters agree that it is wrong to eliminate constitutional right of equal protection and that Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong All Voters Agree Don't Know Disagree Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection' 52 10 37 Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong 51 5 44 Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination against some groups & individuals 50 6 45 Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone equally & fairly 46 6 49 Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & the CTA 45 36 18 Q49-58 (N=1066) 44 9% voted YES, but believe that Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, and wrong. Regression analysis indicates they were motivated by the belief that Prop 8 will preserve traditional marriage & stop the teaching of same sex marriage in school. Yes voters who believe Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, wrong Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage * Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage to children in elementary school * Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong to eliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection' Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination against some groups & individuals Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CA Supreme Court Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyone equally & fairly Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & the CTA Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches 100 78 62 47 36 35 34 33 30 26 57 26 34 51 25 34 29 39 15 0 *Significant at the .0005 level in logistic regression analysis Q49-58 (N=95) 45 73% of yes voters say there is nothing that could change their mind. 7% want same sex marriage to be called something else. Some people voted no on Proposition 8 because they believe it’s wrong to deny gay people the ability to get married. Is there anything that could change your mind and lead you to support the freedom to marry for everyone some day? What?) If same sex marriage is called something else Probably would not change If church says same sex marriage is okay If same sex marriage is not taught in schools If no adverse affects on churches If family rights to teach in home are not changed Miscellaneous Don't Know No / Nothing 7 3 3 2 1 1 5 4 73 Q64 N=549 46