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Linear Modeling-Trendlines - QRC

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					LSP 120: Quantitative Reasoning and
       Technological Literacy


   Topic 1: Introduction to Quantitative
      Reasoning and Linear Models
             Lecture Notes 1.3

                Prepared by Ozlem Elgun    1
              Adding a Trendline

Using Excel
• Open the file: MileRecordsUpdate.xls and
  calculate the slope (rate of change) in column
  C.
• Is this women’s data perfectly linear?
• No, there is not a constant rate of change.
  (See table below.)


                   Prepared by Ozlem Elgun         2
           Calculating rate of change
                           Women's
                 Date      Record
                           seconds                 Change
                    1967                  277
                    1969                  276          -0.50
                    1971                  275          -0.50
                    1973                  269          -3.00
                    1979                  262          -1.17
                    1981                  261          -0.50
                    1985                  257          -1.00
                    1989                  255          -0.50
                    1996                  253          -0.29

Graphing the data produces the following graph which confirms that the
data is not perfectly linear. To graph data, highlight the data you want to
graph (not headers or empty cells). Choose a chart type: Under the Insert
tab click on Scatter located under the Charts group. Under Scatter, choose
Scatter with only Markers (the first option). A simple graph is created.

                             Prepared by Ozlem Elgun                          3
 280




 275




 270




 265
                                                                                Series1




 260




 255




 250
    1965    1970       1975      1980      1985      1990      1995      2000


We can clearly see that the data is not linear but we can use a linear model to
approximate the data. You will need to add a title, axis labels and trendline
(including the equation and r-squared value). First click on the graph to activate the
Chart Tools menu and then choose the Design tab. Under the Charts Layout group,
select #9. (Click on the "more" arrow to display all eleven layouts. Slide over each
                                  graph should look
layout until you locate #9.) Your Prepared by Ozlem Elgun like this:              4
                                                Chart Title
             280



             275



             270



             265
Axis Title




                                                                                                           Series1
             260                                                                                           Linear (Series1)



             255



             250
                                                                             y = -0.929x + 2103.4
                                                                                  R² = 0.9342

             245
                1965   1970   1975   1980                 1985        1990          1995            2000
                                             Axis Title



                                            Prepared by Ozlem Elgun                                             5
• Click on the Chart Title and add a descriptive title (consider who,
  what, where and when). Click on each Axis Title and label both your
  x-axis (horizontal axis) and your y-axis (vertical axis). If you are
  graphing only one series of data, always be certain to remove the
  legend (just click on the legend and use either the delete or
  backspace button). To move the equation/r-squared value slide on
  the text box containing both the equation/r-squared value. Once
  your cursor changes to "cross-hairs" press on the left mouse button
  and slide the text box to a location on the graph where it is easier to
  read.

• It is suggested that you remove the minor axis gridline by changing
  them to the same color as your background. Right-click on the y-axis
  (vertical axis), choose Format Minor Gridlines then Solid Line. Change
  the color of the line to match your background (currently your
  background is white).

• It is important to add a text box stating the data source used to create
  the graph. Under the Insert tab choose text box under the Text
  group. Draw a text box on your chart and then type in "Source:"
  followed by the data source. If no data source is listed, type
  "Unknown".                    Prepared by Ozlem Elgun                   6
                              Women's World Records in the Mile Run from 1967 through
                                                       1996
                    280




                    275

                                                                                       y = -0.929x + 2103.4
                                                                                            R² = 0.9342
                    270
Record in seconds




                    265




                    260




                    255




                    250




                    245
                       1965         1970    1975           1980          1985   1990          1995        2000

           Source: USA Track and Field                            Year

                                                   Prepared by Ozlem Elgun                                       7
            In the preceding graph…
• The black trendline is the line that “best fits” the data. It is a line
  that comes as close the all the data points as possible.

• The R2 value indicates how linear the data actually is. The R2 value
  will be a decimal between 0 and 1. The closer it is to one, the
  closer the data is to linear. The smaller the R2 value, the less linear
  the data. We can see here that the R2 value for the women’s mile
  record is .9342 which is very close to one, so the data is very close
  to linear.

• The equation is the equation of the trendline in y = mx + b form.
  We can see that the slope or the rate of change of the trendline is -
  .929 which means that according to the trendline, the mile record is
  decreasing by just under 1 second every year.


                              Prepared by Ozlem Elgun                       8
Use excel functions, not the equation given in
  the graph to calculate future predictions
You learned in class to use the =slope() and
+intercept() functions. You should use the slope and
intercept functions when you are modeling and
calculating predictions because the equation that
Excel puts on the graph is often rounded to only a
few decimal places. Using the equation that Excel
puts on the graph can lead to aberrant results
because of this rounding.




                   Prepared by Ozlem Elgun             9
Why do we add a trendline and how do we use it?

• Since the trendline is an approximation what is
  happening with data, we can use it to make
  predictions about the data.

• For example, to predict what the mile record was
  in 1999, use the equation of the trendline. First
  identify the variables. X is year and Y is record in
  seconds. Calculate slope and intercept on Excel.
  Then plug 1999 in for X in the linear equation and
  solve for Y.
                     Prepared by Ozlem Elgun         10
   Five guidelines to see if the trendline a good fit for the data

• Guideline 1: Do you have at least 7 data points?

• Guideline 2: Does the R2 value indicate a relationship?
     Reminder: R2 is the percentage of variance of y that is explained
     by our trendline. It is a standard measure of how well the
     trendline fits the data.

• Guideline 3: Verify that your trendline fits the shape of your graph.

• Guideline 4: Look for outliers

• Guideline 5: Use practical knowledge/ common sense to evaluate
  your findings
                             Prepared by Ozlem Elgun               11
  Justifying your prediction in words
Once we calculate the answer to the question, we cannot simply report the numbers. We
need to present them in meaningful sentences that explain their meaning in their contexts.

SAMPLE LEAD SENTENCES
“If the trend established from 1967- 1996 persists, we expect the Women’s world record to be
----------- seconds in 1998. “

SUPPORTING SENTENCES
“We are confident in our prediction because the r-squared value of ---------- shows that the
data has a strong/ moderate/weak linear relationship.
Even though in the long term we expect the rate of change in women’s mile records to
decrease and not stay constant, we expect that in the very near future the linear trend should
continue, giving us confidence in our prediction.

ITEMS THAT MUST BE POINTED OUT WHEN APPLICABLE
 Reason for using less than 7 data points.
Omitting any single data point.
Focusing on a localized linear trend.
Continuing to predict a higher amount when they trend actually decreases (or the opposite).


                                     Prepared by Ozlem Elgun                                  12
            Self Practice: Adding a Trendline
                     (in Excel 2007)
• Open the file: MileRecordsUpdate.xls and calculate the slope (average
  rate of change) in column H for Men’s World records in the Mile Run.
• Is this men’s data perfectly linear?
• Can you use a linear model to describe the data? (Hint: Graph the data in a
  simple scatter plot)
• Create a graph with a trendline, title your graph appropriately.
• What would the men’s world record be in the year 2000? (Hint: in your
  calculations you need to use the SLOPE and INTERCEPT Excel functions,
  and use the linear equation.)
• Check you answer by extending the trendline to year 2000. (right click on
  trendline, under forecast, increase it forward by number of units you need
  to, to reach 2000). Does your trendline show a similar number as your
  prediction.
• Once you calculate your answers write your answers our in meaningful
  sentences, justifying your prediction in words. (Hint: report your
  prediction, the R-squared value, and any possible caveats.)
                               Prepared by Ozlem Elgun                     13

				
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