Discussion: Election 2008
Suiyi Salon
March 1, 2008
七嘴八舌议 08 大选 : 讨论
本人知之甚少 知其一不知其二 纯粹是抛砖引玉
First Democratic Debate: April 26, 2007
South Carolina State University
Democratic Candidates Back Teen
Senator Joesph Biden ( D-Delaware) Senator Hillary Clinton ( D-New York ) Senator Christopher Dodd ( D- Connecticut ) Former Senator John Edwards ( D-North Carolina ) Former Senator Mike Gravel ( D- Alaska ) Rep. Dennis Kucinich ( D-Ohio) Senator Barack Obama ( D- Illinois ) Governor William Richardson ( D- New Mexico)
First Republican Debate: May 3, 2007
Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif.
Republican Candidates Back Then
Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kansas); Former Virginia governor James Gilmore (R-Va.); Former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani; Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee; Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.); Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.); Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.); Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney; Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.); Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson.
Primaries and Caucuses
Candidates are trying to win a majority of delegates during the nomination process The delegates then vote for a nominee at the party conventions The Democratic and Republican parties use different methods to award delegates
Caucus ( 党团会议 )
Local party members get together for an evening of debate before deciding who they will support for their party's presidential nomination. The process is open for all to see and takes place in someone's home or a town hall rather than a voting booth
Primary (预备选举)
Primaries are generally only open to party members. Democrats and Republicans vote for the candidate they want to be their party's presidential candidate. Republican and Democratic primaries do not have to be held on the same day.
Delegates
4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025. 2,380 total delegates to the Republican National Convention, including 1,917 pledged delegates and 463 unpledged delegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 1,191.
Pledged vs. Super
Pledged delegates: Won by candidates in primaries and caucuses; pledge to support their candidates at the national conventions. Superdelegates: Democratic officeholders and party officials guaranteed national convention seats; can support the candidate of their choice. Unpledged RNC member delegates: Republican party officials guaranteed national convention seats; can support the candidate of their choice.
Pros and Cons of US Primary System
Current System:
Long and Drawn-Out ( Good for TV Networks)
Gives Too Much Power to the States with Early Primary Dates but Small Numbers of Delegates
Super-Delegates
Pros and Cons of the Primary System
How about a National Primary? How about rotating the States that have earlier primaries?
Barack Obama
Senator ( D- Illinois ) Born: Aug. 4, 1961 Education: B.A., Columbia; J.D., Harvard Career: U.S. senator; attorney Family: Wife, Michelle; two children The son of a black father from Kenya and a white mother from Kansas, Obama has blended political savvy and personal charm to take him from a childhood in Hawaii and Indonesia to the U.S. Senate. The freshman senator was being touted as a possible presidential candidate even before taking office. Previously, he spent seven years in the Illinois legislature.
Barack Obama
Delegate Total 1,360
Pledged:1,184 Superdelegates:176
States won: HI | WI | MD | DC | VA | ME | LA | WA | NE | AK | UT | ID | MN | KS | CO | ND | MO | IL | DE | CT | AL | GA | SC | IA Needed to Win 2,025
Hillary Clinton
Senator (D - New York ) Born: Oct. 26, 1947 Education: B.A., Wellesley College; J.D., Yale University Career: Attorney; first lady of Arkansas: first lady of the United States; U.S. senator Family: Husband, former President Bill Clinton; daughter Chelsea Clinton, who won her first election in 2000 after years in the spotlight as the nation's first lady, promised to be a "workhorse, not a showhorse" for her New York constituents. She easily won re-election to the Senate in 2006; more than two months before declaring her candidacy for president.
Hillary Clinton
Delegate Total : 1,269
Pledged: 1,031 Superdelegates: 238
States won: CA | NM | AZ | NY | AR | MA | NJ | OK | TN | FL | NV | MI | NH Needed to Win 2,025
John McCain
Senator (R-Arizona ) Born: Aug. 29, 1936 Education: B.S., U.S. Naval Academy Career: Navy officer; U.S. representative; U.S. senator Family: Wife, Cincy; seven children A maverick sometimes at odds with his own party, he made an unsuccessful White House bid in 2000. He is a champion of campaign finance reform and is liked by some Democrats as well as independents. A vocal backer of President Bush's troop increase in Iraq, he has become linked to an unpopular war.
John McCain
Delegate Total : 994
Pledged: 940 Un-pledged RNC members: 54
States won: WA | WI | MD | DC | VA | WA | CA | AZ | NY | MO | NJ | DE | IL | CT | OK |FL | SC | NH Needed to Win : 1,191
Mike Huckabee
Former governor of Arkansas Born: Aug. 24, 1955 Education: B.A., Ouachita Baptist University Career: Pastor; communications company executive; lieutenant governor; governor Family: Wife, Janet; three children Term limits prevented Huckabee from serving another term as Arkansas governor. The staunch opponent of abortion rights and gay marriage is vying for support from the GOP's right flank.
Mike Huckabee
Delegate Total: 239
Pledged: 236 Un-pledged RNC members: 3
States won: LA | KS | AR | TN | AL | GA | WV | IA Needed to Win : 1,191
March 4, 2008 – Super Tuesday II
VT ( D=15p+8s= 23 ) TX ( D= 193p + 35s = 228 ) OH ( D= 141p +20s = 161 ) RI ( D=21p+11s= 33 )
MA moved its primary to Feb. 5 ( Super Tuesday I )
Super Tuesday II - Texas
complicated combination of primaries and caucuses system for choosing delegates for Democrats most Democratic delegates will be allocated proportionally by primary elections in each district. But other Democratic delegates will be chosen by attendees at precinct caucuses that begin after polls close. the GOP primary chooses most delegates based on proportional results in each congressional district. A lesser number of at-large delegates will be allocated by the statewide primary results. Candidates take all delegates in a district if the candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes.
Super Tuesday II - Ohio
Primaries for both the Democratic and Republican parties Most of the Democratic delegates will be awarded proportionally based on voting in congressional districts. Most of the Republican delegates will go to the candidate who wins a statewide majority of the votes.
Super Delegates
Super Delegates
Hillary vs. Obama
Obama -“the Rock Star” Who is stronger candidate in general election? 1st Women President vs. 1st Black President
Game Over for Hillary?
Game Over for Hillary?
Hillary pk Obama
In theory, Hillary has to won both OH and TX ( and by large margin ) to stay in the race, otherwise it’s Game Over for her Currently, polls indicates Hillary is in a tie with Obama in Texas and slightly leading in Ohio However, nothing is simple in politics:
Deal with Super Delegates Nullified States
MI ( 128p+29s= 0 or 157 ) and FL (185p+25s= 0 - 210 ) Hillary won both but their delegates don’t count, yet!
Issues Americans Care
Economy : 35% Iraq: 25% Health Care: 18% Immigration: 10% Terrorism : 9% Other: 2%
Is McCain a Republican?
Is McCain a Republican ?
Republicans Against McCain?
Economy
Hillary Clinton
establish a $30 billion emergency housing fund to assist states and cities mitigate the effects of mounting foreclosures. include a 90-day moratorium on subprime foreclosures and an automatic rate freeze on subprime mortgages of at least five years. provide $25 billion in emergency energy assistance for families facing skyrocketing heating bills. invest $10 billion in extending and broadening unemployment insurance for those who are struggling to find work.
Economy
Barack Obama
pump $75 billion into the economy via tax cuts and direct spending targeted to working families, seniors, homeowners and the unemployed. includes $45 billion in reserves that can be injected into the economy quickly in the future if the economy continues to deteriorate. Would provide an immediate $250 tax cut for workers and their families and an immediate, temporary $250 bonus to seniors in their Social Security checks. Would provide an additional $250 tax cut to workers and an additional $250 to seniors if the economy continues to worsen. Would extend and expand unemployment insurance.
Economy
John McCain
lower the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent. allow first-year deduction of equipment and technology investments and establish a permanent research and development tax credit equal to 10 percent of wages spent on R&D.
Iraq
Hillary Clinton
Voted for use of military force in Iraq, but now says she would have voted differently "if we knew then what we know now." Supports de-authorizing the war. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Opposed Bush plan to increase the number of American troops in Iraq. Supports a phased redeployment
Iraq
Barack Obama
Opposed use of military force in Iraq. Voted for war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Supports phased redeployment of U.S. troops. Opposed Bush's plan to send additional troops to Iraq. Had once called for troop withdrawal to begin by the end of 2006.
Iraq
John McCain
Voted for use of military force in Iraq. Supported Bush veto of war spending bill that would have withdrawn most U.S. troops by March 2008. Was an early proponent of sending additional American troops to Iraq.
Health Care
Hillary Clinton: $110 billion a year for mandatory universal coverage in first term. Tax credits to make insurance more affordable. Raise taxes on wealthy Barack Obama: No universal coverage mandate for adults but one for children. More than $65 billion a year to make universal coverage affordable. Raise taxes on wealthy. John McCain : Opposes federally mandated universal coverage. $2,500 tax credit per taxpayer to help pay for insurance.
Immigration
Hillary Clinton : Voted for 2006 bill that proposed conditional path to citizenship for illegal aliens; backed border fence. Barack Obama: Same as Hillary’s. John McCain : Sponsored 2006 bill that proposed conditional path to citizenship for illegal aliens. Now says he would secure border first.
Taxes
Hillary Clinton Opposed 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts. Opposed extending tax cuts through 2010. Barack Obama Opposed extending 2003 Bush tax cut law through 2010. Supports eliminating marriage penalty and extending child tax credit. Supports scaling back capital gains and dividends tax cuts and re-examining tax benefits for the top one percent of earners. John McCain Voted against 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cut laws, but later voted in favor of extending tax cuts through 2010. Says he opposes a proposal supporters call the "Fair Tax," which would repeal income taxes and other taxes and abolish the Internal Revenue, but has previously said he would sign it into law as president.
Social Security
Hillary Clinton
Opposes all efforts to privatize Social Security. Noncommittal on raising $97,500 income cap on payroll taxes. Proposes a federal match of up to $1,000 to help set up 401(k) plans. Would support the creation of a bipartisan commission. Strongly opposed to privatizing Social Security. Supports increasing the maximum amount of earnings covered by Social Security. Would work with Congress to choose a payroll tax reform package that will keep Social Security solvent for at least the next half century.
Would consider "almost anything" in a compromise to save Social Security, yet rules out high payroll taxes for now.
Barack Obama
John McCain
Trade
Hillary Clinton Supported NAFTA while first lady but now believes NAFTA should be changed. During a 2005 trip to India, she stated, "There is no way to legislate against reality. Outsourcing will continue." However, during 2007 presidential debates, she said outsourcing was a problem. Would end the tax breaks that exist in the tax code for outsourcing jobs and have trade agreements with enforceable labor and environmental standards. Barack Obama Would immediately call the leaders of Mexico and Canada to try to amend NAFTA. Would eliminate tax breaks for companies that are moving overseas. He stated, "We also have to have an intentional strategy on the part of the federal government to make sure that we are reinvesting in those communities that are being burdened by globalization and not benefiting from it." John McCain Voted yes on NAFTA in 1993. He stated, "Free trade is something I think is vital to the future of America". He has called himself "the biggest free marketer and free trader that you will ever see.
China Policy / Taiwan Issue
None of them are talking much publicly about Taiwan Historically, Clintons are always friendly to China and campaign money from the Chinese All of them will blame China for a variety of issues at their convenience ( human rights, Tibet, job loss, trade imbalance, exchange rate, pollution, product safety, stock market downturn etc.) but their barks are much worse than the bites Obama seems to be detached from China policy. John McCain claims to be big on pro-trade. Good news for all the American businesses that can’t live without China I must have missed something…
What’s Next: More Primaries
March 8: Wyoming (D) March 11: Mississippi April 22: Pennsylvania May 6: Indiana, North Carolina May 13: Nebraska, West Virginia May 20: Kentucky, Oregon May 27: Idaho (R) June 3: Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
What’s Next: Party Convention
What’s Next:
Non-Stop Campaign, Speeches, Debates and Fundraisers Negative Ads Filling Air Wave, Personal Attacks, Scandals, Surprises Last minutes “SwiftBoating” proves to be very effective Get-Out-to-Vote Drives
Ralph Nader : Will he do it again?
What’s Next
Election Day : Nov. 4, 2008 Count, Recount, “Hanging Chads”, Law Suits after Law Suits ( Hopefully Not ! ) Meeting of the Electoral College* in December ( 270 votes needed )
*The size of the Electoral College is equal to the total membership of both Houses of Congress (435 Representatives and 100 Senators) plus the three electors allocate to Washington DC. ( 538 votes total )
Jan. 20, 2009 (Inauguration Day ):
Bush is Out!
What’s Next
The country will have a new President!
The Show is Over, Go Back to Work!
Thank You for Your Time and Inputs!