Climate & Energy Policies
44th for the President & 111th Congress
William Becker Presidential Climate Action Project
November 13, 2008
What science is telling us
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2. 3. 4.
5. 6.
Global warming is real. It is underway now. It is caused mostly by human activities. If allowed to go much farther, it will have disastrous consequences for our economy, health, security & ecosystems. We have the tools to prevent this. We don’t have much time.
Emission Reduction Goals for Industrial Nations
How Far?
By 2015
Stabilize global emissions: IPCC
(compared to 1990)
By 2020
25-40%: Bali action plan 20-30%: European Union
How fast?
"If there's no action before 2012, that's too late. What we do in the next 2 to 3 years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.“ – Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC
“The next president and congress must define a course next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present dangerous situation…” – Dr. Jim Hansen, NASA
Moving in Wrong Direction
McKinsey & Company 2030 Reference Case for U.S.
By 2030…
CO2e emissions increase 35% Carbon absorption decreases 7% Carbon intensity & per capita emissions improve Growth factors
Population growth Buildings & appliances More carbon-based power
Moving in Wrong Direction
Energy Information Administration - 2007
The challenge…
21st century economy
Security Opportunity Stewardship
Carbon Economy
Petroleum
Oil dependence to cost economy $560 billion & 1.5% of GDP in 2008 (Oak Ridge
National Laboratory/DOE)
$1.7 trillion lost in past five years $1 trillion transferred to oilproducing nations Oil = 1/3 trade deficit Cheap oil gone Efficiency, conservation & new fuels can deliver 50 times more oil than expanded domestic drilling (Consumer Federation of America)
Direct Economic Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence, 1970-2009 Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Carbon Economy
Electric Generation
U.S. power sector world’s largest 2 times China 3.5 times Russia 5 times India Per capita use in U.S. 5 times global average 70% wasted in generation 6-9% wasted in line losses Congestion/blackouts cost $79 billion/year BAU by 2030 60% power from coal 34% of GHG emissions
Carbon Economy
Coal
80% U.S. power plant CO2 1/3 existing plants to retire by 2030 151 plants in pipeline in 2007 Nearly 90 stopped by lawsuit, permitting, lack of investment CCS decade + away
Post-Carbon Economy
Market opportunity
Global green market to reach $2.7 trillion by 2020 (UNEP) U.S investments in renewables = $13 billion in 2007
Post-Carbon Economy
Renewable Energy
Today 11% of generation Wind capacity grew 45% 2006-2007 Solar capacity grew 40% Geothermal projects up 20% through Aug. 2008 What’s Ahead 20% wind by 2020
(DOE)
Solar grid parity in ~5 years (McKinsey) Smart grids Distributed power
Post-Carbon Economy
Energy efficiency
Largest source of US energy supply for last 35 years 30% savings cost effective in the next 20-25 years (ACEEE) $1 for efficiency avoids more than $2 in new supply (IEA) Best cushion against rising prices Efficiency could hold US CO2 constant to 2030 (NREL)
Post-Carbon Economy
$100 billion investment could produce 2 million jobs in two years - Center for American Progress $500 billion investment could produce 5 million jobs in 10 years - Apollo Project National push could create 2.5 million new metropolitan jobs by 2018 - U.S. Conference of Mayors
McKinsey Curve: Power of Efficiency
Project Sponsors:
Building and Construction Trades Department (AFLCIO) International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Industrial Union Council (AFL-CIO) United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters Environmental Defense Fund
Available on 11/18 at:
http://www.cggc.duke.edu/environment/climatesolutions/
Raw Materials
Lumber
Window Components
Frames
Aluminum
Sill, Sash, Stop, & Stool
Fiberglass Vinyl
Gas Filling
Krypto
Argon
Low-E, Solar Control Coatings
Nickel
Insulating Spacer
Titanium Dioxide
Flat Glass Panes
Chromium Nitrate
Silver
Polystyrene Foam
Other Components -Backer Rod -Flange
Silica
High Performance Windows
Raw Materials
Silica
U.S. Silica Co., Wedron Silica Co.(IL), Shore Mountains Silica (TN)
Components Manufacturers
Low-E Coatings
Seki-Sui-Lec: (Japan) Emirates Glass: (Dubai) CPFilms: (VA)
Window Manufacturers
Consumer Market
Retailers
Top Window Manufacturers
Jeld-Wen: (OR) 25,000 employees, $ 2,900 million sales
Leading U.S. Window Retailers
Lowe’s: (NC) 160,000 employees Home Depot: (GA) 331,000 employees 84 Lumber: (PA) 9,500 Employees
Nickel
Russia, Canada, Australia, Indonesia
Flat Glass
Corning, Inc: (NY) 313 employees Cardinal Insulating Glass (ND) 280 employees Pilkington Glass Co.: (OH) 300 employees
Chromium
Elements Chromium (TX and NC)
Pella Co.: (IA) 9,000 employees, $1,530 million sales
Andersen: (MN) 9001 employees, $3,000 million sales Milgard Windows: (WA, CA) 3,607 employees, $1,227.1 million sales Atrium Windows and Doors: (TX) 520 employees, $120.6 million sales Gorell Enterprises (PA) 280 employees, $72.2 million sales Alpen (co)
Polystyrene Foam
Owens Corning (OH), Carpenter Co. (VA), Foamex Intl. (PA)
Spacer
Edgetech I.G.: (OH) 50 employees GED Integrated Solutions: (OH) 110 employees TruSeal Technologies: (OH) 40 employees
Manufacturer Retail Stores/ Showrooms
Argon
Praxair (CT), Air Products and Chemicals (PA)
Installation (Contractors)
Gas Fills:
Praxair: (CT) 27,992 employees Air Liquide: France Air Products and Chemicals: (PA) 21,500 employees Airgas: (PA) 14, 500 employees
Aluminum
Alcoa Inc., A.M. Castle
Professional Installation Contractors Within Each State
Fiberglass
U.S., China
Other Components:
Backer Rod, Flange
Vinyl
Dow Chemical Co., E.I. du Pont
Residential Construction Companies (Professional Installation)
Frames:
Most frames are made on-site at the finished product manufacturer: Pella, Jeld-Wen, Milgard
Lumber Weyerehouse
Co.(WA), Jeld-Wen (OR), Pella Co.(IA)
Research & Development:
Manufacturers: Many component and window manufacturers employ research engineers (ex: Pella has over 300 engineers; CPF Films has an R&D department) Industry Organizations: Energy Star
Other: Krypton, Titanium dioxide, Silver
•D.R. Horton (TX) 6,231 Employees •Lennar (FL) 6,934 Employees •Pulte Homes (MI) 8,500 Employees •Centex (TX) 11,418 Employees
U.S. Component and Window Manufacturers
LED Lighting Manufacturing Companies
Status of U.S. Policy
Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
–
Sir Winston Churchill
PCAP Mission
Provide the 44th President of the United States with a comprehensive plan to take bold action on climate change within 100 days.
Background
Most comprehensive climate action plan yet Two-year, $2 million project Wirth Chair, UC-Denver Sources of proposals: Science & policy experts Advisory Committee members Original research Current & former federal
National Advisory Committee
Ray Anderson, Founder & CEO, Interface Inc. Dr. D. James Baker, former NOAA Administrator Scott Bernstein, Center for Neighborhood Technologies April Bucksbaum, Baum Foundation Dianne Dillon-Ridgley, Chair, Plains Justice Brian Castelli, VP, Alliance to Save Energy Boyd Gibbons, past president, Johnson Foundation Gary Hart, U.S. Sen. (ret) Sheila Slocum Hollis, Partner Duane Morris LLP Van Jones, President & Founder, Ella Baker Center for Human Rights
John Petersen, Arlington Institute Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism Solutions Michael Northrop, Rockefeller Bros. Fund Dr. David Orr, Oberlin College Theodore Roosevelt IV, Pew Center Larry Schweiger, President, National Wildlife Federation Jeremy Symons, National Wildlife Federation Dr. Gus Speth, Dean, School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University Adm. Richard Truly (USN ret), former NASA Administrator & NREL Director Heidi VanGenderen, Chief Climate Advisor, Colorado Governors Office
Comprehensive
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4.
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Economic policy Climate policy Energy policy National security Agriculture/rural development Buildings Transportation Federal carbon management Natural resource stewardship Ocean ecology Freshwater resources Equity Adaptation Public health State/Local action International policy Presidential leadership
Presidential Climate Action Plan
www.climateactionproject.com
PCAP by the Numbers
Action items
181 recommendations $160 billion/year 96 climate statutes Landmark environmental laws 140 federal court cases 370 executive orders from 1937 200 senior climate-critical positions 250 nominees
Executive authority analysis
Climate Plum Book
Among the issues…
Carbon pricing Perverse subsidies Fed vs. state leadership Carbon lock-in Capital International expectations
Carbon Pricing
President-elect Obama
PCAP
Economy-wide cap & Trade 100% auction EPA regulation GHG = 1990 by 2020 80% cut by 2050
Economy-wide cap & trade Upstream allowances 100% auction No off-ramps/safety valves Reductions measured in absolute tons 25-30% cut by 2020 80%+ cut by 2050
Renewable Power
President-elect Obama
PCAP
25% by 2025 $15 billion/year 30% 2020 $30 billion/year
$1 billion platinum carrot
Energy storage Plug-in hybrids Cellulosic ethanol
Energy Efficiency
Critical for Coping
President-elect Obama
Reduce consumption 15% below projected demand by 2020
PCAP
25% cut from today’s use by 2020 50% cut by 2050
Coal-fired Generation
President-elect Obama Aggressive R&D on CCS 5 demonstration plants PCAP Use efficiency/renewables to avoid new conventional plants “Clean” = life-cycle CO2 Explore converting existing plants to natural gas CCS R&D
Continue but don’t wait Increase industry cost-share Continually evaluate costeffectiveness
Nuclear Power
Avoid problem-switching
President-elect Obama
Solve storage, proliferation, safety problems Same as Obama Meantime, implement clean energy surge
PCAP
Transportation
Beyond Futurama
President-elect Obama Deploy 1 million plug-in hybrids by 2015 Increase CAFE 4%/year Offer $7,000 tax credit for advanced vehicle purchases Provide $4 billion in retooling tax credits for automakers Support liquids from coal if 20% less carbon than gasoline PCAP Increase CAFE to 50 mpg by 2025 200 mpg by 2050 Reform Surface Transportation Program Offer $1 billion in platinum carrot awards No liquids from coal
Invest in the New Economy
Economic Policy
McKinsey & Company
President-elect Obama
10-fold increase in carbon productivity in 4 decades Comparable in magnitude to labor productivity increases of Industrial Revolution… But in one-third the time $150 billion investments over 10 years to produce 5 million jobs $100 billion investment over 2 years = 2 million jobs Economic development grants for “climate enterprise zones” Reform international aid & trade to spur emerging global markets for green energy
PCAP
Create Intergovernmental Action Plan
States & Localities
$1 billion/year for states that…
States Climate Change Action Plans
Information current as of August 2008.
$2 billion/year Energy Efficiency & Conservation block grants $1.4 billion/year Weatherization Assistance Program
Decouple rates Map renewables & extend grid Promote distributed power & cogeneration Create interconnection standards Implement net metering Use feed-in tariffs Implement climate action plans Establish RPSs
Completed: 32 AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, HI, IA, IL, KY, ME, MD, MA, MN, MO, MT, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, UT, VT, WA, WI In Progress: 6 AK, AR, ID, KS, MI, VA No Policy in Place: 13
International Climate Action
Strong domestic policy = Leadership
Join actively in post-Kyoto negotiations Provide incentives for reductions by developing nations Create Global Energy Forum G8+5 Cooperate with China/India to reduce oil demand Send representative to Poland Commit to holding warming to 2oC or less Negotiate bilateral pact with China Champion reforms in aid & trade Propose OPIC Meet with Congressional leaders early to collaborate on preCopenhagen plans
President-elect Obama
PCAP
Questions for Congress
The international community is looking for an early signal of U.S. commitment. Will Congress move cap & trade legislation in 2009? If not, what measures will it support to demonstrate U.S. commitment?
Questions for Congress
Should we allow the construction of any more conventional coal-fired power plants?
If so, how do we reconcile new plants with need to reduce CO2?
Questions for Congress
European Union & other nations call for industrial nations to cut GHG emissions 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 That’s far short of any legislation in Congress or proposed during presidential campaign.
Can the U.S. have credibility in international negotiations without the higher goal?
Questions for Congress
If you support more oil production and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, how do you reconcile those two contradictory goals?
Questions for Congress
On the one hand, there’s general agreement we should correct market signals by pricing carbon.
On the other hand, market signals are distorted by fossil energy subsidies. Will you push for an end to public subsidies for the coal, gas and oil industries?
Questions for Congress
The first big opportunity to make federal policy more “climate friendly” next year will be the reauthorization of the surface transportation act Will you shift the emphasis from building roads to building mass transit systems, high speed rail, and transit-oriented communities?
Questions for Congress
Although everyone talks about “energy independence”, the U.S. has little control over oil prices or supplies. More domestic production will have little effect.
What can the U.S. do to reduce this global vulnerability?
Questions for Congress
Climate scientists tell us we need action far more aggressive than any contemplated by Congress so far.
How do we close the gap?
Needed: Bold Action Soon
Reduce federal emissions 30% by 2020, 8090% by 2050 Cut oil consumption in half by 2025 Offset all U.S. oil imports by 2040 Achieve zero-net-carbon buildings by 2030 Reduce energy consumption 25% by 2020 Obtain 30% of electricity from renewables by 2020 Reduce vehicle miles traveled 20% by 2020, 50% by 2050 De-carbonize federal subsidies De-carbonize international development policies Form Organization of Petroleum Importing Countries (OPIC) Require carbon impact statements
bill.becker@cudenver.edu www.climateactionproject.com