# Error Models Lecture 06 - MIT by pptfiles

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```									Error Models
Lecture 06
Thomas Herring
tah@mit.edu
Issues in GPS Error Analysis
• What are the sources of the errors ?
• How much of the error can we remove by
better modeling ?
• Do we have enough information to infer the
uncertainties from the data ?
• What mathematical tools can we use to
represent the errors and uncertainties ?

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Determining the Uncertainties of GPS
Parameter Estimates
• Rigorous estimate of uncertainties requires full
knowledge of the error spectrum—both temporal
and spatial correlations (never possible)
• Sufficient approximations are often available by
examining time series (phase and/or position)
and reweighting data
• Whatever the assumed error model and tools
used to implement it, external validation is
important
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Sources of Error
• Signal propagation effects
–   Ionospheric effects
–   Signal scattering ( antenna phase center / multipath )
–   Atmospheric delay (mainly water vapor)
• Unmodeled motions of the station
– Monument instability
surface water
• Unmodeled motions of the satellites
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Simple geometry for incidence
of a direct and reflected signal

Multipath contributions to observed phase for an antenna at heights (a)
0.15 m, (b) 0.6 m, and (c ) 1 m. [From Elosegui et al, 1995]

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Characterizing Phase Noise

Epochs

20
0 mm
-20

1       2        3        4            5 Hours
Elevation angle and phase residuals for single satellite
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Characterizing
the Noise in
Daily Position
Estimates

Note temporal
correlations of 30-
100 days and
seasonal terms

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Spectral Analysis of the Time Series to
Estimate an Error Model

Figure 5 from Williams et al [2004]:
Power spectrum for common-mode
error in the SOPAC regional SCIGN
analysis. Lines are best-fit WN + FN
models (solid=mean ampl;
dashed=MLE)

Note lack of taper and misfit for
periods > 1 yr
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. . . spectral analysis approach
• Power law: slope of line fit to spectrum
– 0 = white noise
– -1 = flicker noise
– -2 = random walk
• Non-integer spectral index (e.g. “fraction white
noise”  1 > k > -1 )
• Good discussion in Williams [2003]
• Problems:
– Computationally intensive
– No model captures reliably the lowest-frequency part
of the spectrum
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Examples of times series and spectra for global stations
From Mao et al., 1999
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Short-cut: Use white noise statistics ( wrms) to predict the flicker noise

White noise vs flicker noise from Mao et al. [1999] spectral
analysis of 23 global stations
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“Realistic Sigma” Algorithm for
Velocity Uncertainties
• Motivation: computational efficiency, handle time series with
varying lengths and data gaps; obtain a model that can be used in
globk
• Concept: The departure from a white-noise (sqrt n) reduction in
noise with averaging provides a measure of correlated noise.
• Implementation:
– Fit the values of chi2 vs averaging time to the exponential function
expected for a first-order Gauss-Markov (FOGM) process (amplitude,
correlation time)
– Use the chi2 value for infinite averaging time predicted from this
model to scale the white-noise sigma estimates from the original fit
–      and/or
– Fit the values to a FOGM with infinite averaging time (i.e., random
walk) and use these estimates as input to globk (mar_neu command)

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Effect of Averaging on Time-series Noise

Note the
dominance of
correlated errors
and unrealistic
rate uncertainties
with a white
noise
assumption:
.01 mm/yr N,E
.04 mm/yr U

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Yellow: Daily (raw)   Blue: 7-day averages
Same site, East component   ( daily wrms 0.9 mm nrms 0.5 )

64-d avg
wrms 0.7 mm
nrms 2.0

100-d avg
wrms 0.6 mm
nrms 3.4

400-d avg
wrms 0.3 mm
nrms 3.1

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Estimating a “realistic-sigma” by fitting an exponential function to
chi-square vs averaging time

Get scale factor by
evaluating the function
at an infinite averaging
time

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Using TSVIEW to compute and display the “realistic-sigma” results

Note rate
uncertainties
with the
“realistic-
sigma”
algorithm :

0.09 mm/yr N
0.13 mm/yr E
0.13 mm/yr U

Red lines show the 68% probability bounds of the velocity based on the results of applying the
algorithm.
8/10/11                                 Izmir GG Shortcourse                                     16
Comparison of estimated velocity uncertainties using spectral
analysis (CATS*) and Gauss-Markov fitting of averages (GLOBK)

Plot courtesy E. Calias
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Velocity Errors due to Seasonal Signals
tilt, and antenna temperature sensitivity are common in GPS time series
Theoretical analysis of a continuous time
series by Blewitt and Lavallee [2002]

Top: Bias in velocity from a 1mm
sinusoidal signal in-phase and with a
90-degree lag with respect to the start
of the data span

Bottom: Maximum and rms velocity bias
over all phase angles
– The minimum bias is NOT obtained with
continuous data spanning an even
number of years
– The bias becomes small after 3.5 years
of observation

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Summary of Practical Approaches
• White noise + flicker noise (+ random walk) to model the
spectrum [Williams et al., 2004]
• White noise as a proxy for flicker noise [Mao et al., 1999]
• Random walk to model to model an exponential spectrum
[Herring “realistic sigma” algorithm for velocities]
• “Eyeball” white noise + random walk for non-continuous
data
______________________________________
• Only the last two can be applied in GLOBK for velocity
estimation
• All approaches require common sense and verification

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Determining the Uncertainties of GPS
Estimates of Station Velocities
• Understanding the sources of error
• Time series analysis to determine statistics for
reweighting the data
• Whatever the assumed error model and tools
used to implement it, external validation is
important

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External Validation for Velocity Uncertainties
-- assume no strain within a geological rigid block

GMT plot at
70%
confidence
17 sites in
central
Macedonia:
4-5 velocities
pierce error
ellipses

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.. same solution plotted with 95% confidence ellipses

1-2 of 17
velocities
pierce error
ellipses

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A more rigorous assessment for data from Cascadia

Colors show slipping
and locked portions
of the subducting
slab where the
surface velocities are
highly sensitive to
the model; area to
the east is slowly
deforming and
insensitive to the
details of the model

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McCaffrey et al. 2007
Velocities and
70% error
ellipses for 300
sites observed by
continuous and
survey-mode
GPS 1991-2004

Test area (next
slide) is east of
238E

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Residuals to elastic block
model for 70 sites in
slowly deforming region

Error ellipses are for 70%
confidence:
13-17 velocities pierce
their ellipse

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Locations of one
continuous (BURN)
217U                                 and 3 survey-mode
SARG
sites for time series
shown in next
slides
DALL

BURN
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Time series of monthly
position estimates for
continuous site BURN

Wrms ~ 1 mm N,E
~ 3 mm U

Rate uncertainties
< 0.2 mm/yr N,E
0.7 mm/yr U
do not include random
estimates

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Next slide shows
time series for
217U                                 survey-mode site
SARG
217U

Note consistency
DALL                                 with nearby sites

BURN
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Time series for survey-mode site 217U

Position
estimates based
on 8-24 hr
occupations

Note < 1 mm
rate
uncertainties
due to 7-yr time
span

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Next slide shows
time series for
217U                                 survey-mode site
SARG
SARG

DALL

BURN
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Horizontal time series for survey-mode site SARG

Position estimates
based on 8-24 hr
occupations

Note 1 mm wrms and
< 1 mm rate sigmas

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Next slide shows
time series for
217U                                 survey-mode site
SARG
DALL

Note consistency
DALL                                 with nearby sites
except continuous
site GWEN

BURN
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Horizontal time series for survey-mode site DALL

Position estimates
based on 8-24 hr
occupations

Rate sigmas < 1 mm/yr
and consistent with
surrounding sites even
with velocities
determined essentially
by two occupations 3
yrs apart

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Statistics of Time Series

Distribution of normalized rms
for horizontal magnitudes
residuals after removing the
block model

357 sites

NRMS
E, N 1.00, 1.03

NRMS

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Statistics of Velocity Residuals

Cumulative histogram of
normalized velocity
residuals for Eastern
Oregon & Washington     (
Percent                                                    70 sites )
Within
Ratio
each survey:
0.5 mm random
1.0 mm/sqrt(yr)) random walk

Solid line is theoretical for
Gaussian distribution

Ratio (velocity magnitude/uncertainty)

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Statistics of Velocity Residuals

Percent
Within                                                  Same as last slide but with a
Ratio                                                   smaller random-walk noise

0.5 mm random
0.5 mm/yr random walk

( vs 1.0 mm/sqrt(yr)) RW for
‘best’ noise model )

Note greater number of
residuals in range of 1.5-2.0
sigma

Ratio (velocity magnitude/uncertainty)

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Statistics of Velocity Residuals

Same as last slide but with larger
Percent
Within
Ratio                                                :

2.0 mm white noise
1.5 mm/sqrt(yr)) random walk

( vs 0.5 mm WN and 1.0 mm/sqrt(yr))
RW for ‘best’ noise model )

Note smaller number of residuals in all
ranges above 0.1-sigma

Ratio (velocity magnitude/uncertainty)

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Summary
• All algorithms for computing estimates of standard
deviations have various problems: Fundamentally, rate
standard deviations are dependent on low frequency
part of noise spectrum which is poorly determined.
• Assumptions of stationarity are often not valid
• “Realistic sigma” algorithm is a covenient and reliable
appraoch to getting velocity uncertainties in globk
• Velocity residuals from a model, together with their
uncertainties, can be used to validate the error model

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Tools for Error Analysis in GAMIT/GLOBK
• GAMIT: AUTCLN reweight = Y (default) uses phase rms from postfit edit
to reweight data with constant + elevation-dependent terms
• GLOBK
– rename ( eq_file) _XPS or _XCL to remove outliers
– sig_neu adds white noise by station and span; useful for handling outliers
– mar_neu adds random-walk noise: principal method for controlling velocity
uncertainties
– In the gdl files, can rescale variances of an entire h-file: useful when
combining solutions from with different sampling rates or from different
programs (Bernese, GIPSY)
• Utilities
– Realistic sigma” algorithm implemented in tsview (MATLAB) and enfit/ensum;
sh_gen_stats generates mar_neu commands for globk based on the noise
estimates
– sh_plotvel (GMT) allows setting of confidence level of error ellipses
– sh_tshist and sh_velhist can be used to generate histograms of time series and
velocities

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Summary
• There are no absolute methods that ensure the correct
error model can be determined for a set of data
processing.
• We attempt to determine with 1-sigma values, that
68% of values will be within this range due to noise;
with 2-sigma, 95% of values (1-d) even when the
probability distribution is not Gaussian.
• The most under certain aspect is determining the
nature of the temporal and spatial correlations in the
results. Generally, large amounts of data are needed
for this and the assumption of stationarity.

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References
Spectral Analysis
Langbein and Johnson [J. Geophys. Res., 102, 591, 1997]
Zhang et al. [J. Geophys. Res., 102, 18035, 1997]
Mao et al. [J. Geophys. Res., 104, 2797, 1999]
Dixon et al. [Tectonics , 19, 1, 2000] Herring [GPS Solutions, 7, 194, 2003]
Williams [J. Geodesy, 76, 483, 2003]
Williams et al. [J. Geophys. Res. 109, B03412, 2004]
Langbein [J. Geophys. Res., 113, B05405, 2008]
Williams, S. [GPS Solutions, 12, 147, 2008]

Effect of seasonal terms on velocity estimates
Blewitt and Lavaellee [J. Geophys. Res. 107, 2001JB000570, 2002]

Realistic Sigma Algorithm
Herring [GPS Solutions, 7, 194, 2003]
Reilinger et al. [J. Geophys. Res., 111, B5, 2006]

Validation in velocity fields
McClusky et al. [J. Geophys. Res. 105, 5695, 2000]
McClusky et al. [Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3369, 2000]
Davis et al. [J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2003GL016961, 2003]
McCaffrey et al., [Geophys J. Int., 2007.03371, 2007]

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