Weekly Hog Market Facts ProteinMarkt

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					                                           Monday, February 9, 2009               Weekly Hog Market Facts
Compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA…. ………….…………… john.bancroft@ontario.ca

Week Ending on Friday……………………………….                          09-Jan-09     16-Jan-09      23-Jan-09     30-Jan-09     06-Feb-09

The Ontario Market
Pool Price ($/ckg, 100 index)                                $111.15       $126.24        $126.25       $122.37          $123.78
Pool Plus Price ($/ckg, 100 index)                           $111.62       $124.04        $132.08       $128.80          $129.92
Standard Contract Price ($/ckg, 100 index)                   $114.68        $122.23       $129.62       $128.93
100% Formula Price ($/ckg, 100 index)                        $113.70       $127.70        $133.21       $129.27          $131.16
Market Hogs Marketed by Ontario Pork                         113,422       108,814        108,235       100,002          101,295
Market Hogs Marketed as a % of Previous Year                   93%           87%           86%            87%             92%
2008 -Avg. Weighted Market Hog Price ($/ckg, 100 index)       $90.48        $90.10        $91.87         $96.17          $100.35


Weaned Pig Value (C$/pig) - Formula Value                     $29.56        $33.20        $34.63         $33.61          $34.10
Feeder Pig Value (C$/pig) - Formula Value                     $46.90        $52.68        $54.95         $53.32          $54.10
Est. Grow Finish Feed Cost for Current Week                   $76.29        $72.66        $74.35         $73.32          $71.00
Est. Margin after Feeder Pig, Feed, & Marketing Cost         -$16.80        -$3.52         $0.61         -$3.75          -$0.96

The U.S. Market
Estimated and Actual Federal Inspected Slaughter            2,387,946      2,309,900     2,242,105     2,267,000     2,222,000
Federal Inspected Slaughter- % of Previous Year                98%           95%            98%          100%            101%
Number of Sows Slaughtered                                    71,197        63,934        60,792
Sow Slaughter - % Change from Previous Year                    3.7%          -9.3%        -10.2%
# of Sows & Boars Imported from Canada for Slaughter          14,142        15,415        12,896         11,344


Early Weaned Pigs (US $/Pig) - Weighted Avg. Value            $44.48        $43.66        $41.62         $40.98          $39.15
Early Weaned Pigs Formula Based Avg. Value                    $39.85        $39.67        $40.50         $38.86          $38.35
Early Weaned Pigs Cash Based Avg. Value                       $48.60        $48.29        $45.82         $42.53          $40.38
40 Pound Feeder Pigs (US $/pig) - Weighted Avg. Value         $60.42        $65.59        $62.15         $58.08          $59.07
40 Pound Feeder Pigs Formula Based Avg. Value                 $68.00        $66.75        $60.39         $51.62          $62.74
40 Pound Feeder Pigs Cash Based Avg. Value                    $59.82        $65.54        $62.31         $59.18          $58.92


CME Constructed Price (US$/cwt)                               $53.10        $57.19        $58.62         $58.58          $58.91
Previous Year CME Constructed Price (US$/cwt)                 $48.72        $48.38        $50.28         $53.51          $56.61
USDA Barrow & Gilt Dressed Weight (lbs.)                       203            202           201
USDA Barrow & Gilt Dressed Weight (lbs.) Previous Year         203            202           201           200             200
USDA Pork Carcass Cutout Value (US$/cwt)                      $57.84        $57.17        $57.67         $57.49          $56.98
Previous Year USDA Pork Carcass Cutout Value (US$/cwt)        $56.88        $56.19        $55.38         $55.80          $59.32

For data sources and explanation of the various reported items, refer to the “Weekly Hog Market Facts Notes, May 2008”
                                           Monday, February 9, 2009               Weekly Hog Market Facts
Compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA…. ………….…………… john.bancroft@ontario.ca


Week Ending on Friday……………………………….                          09-Jan-09     16-Jan-09      23-Jan-09     30-Jan-09     06-Feb-09

The Canadian Market                                               Prime Interest Rate - Friday           3.00%            3.00%
Hog Slaughter (Provincial & Federal Plants)                  459,431        450,196       448,516       436,163
Slaughter as a % of Previous Year                             154%           101%          101%           97%
Quebec Pool Price ($/ckg, 100 index)                         $114.02        $113.09       $124.19       $122.68          $122.99
Value of the Canadian Dollar - Friday Noon (US $)            $0.8387        $0.7973       $0.8013       $0.8088          $0.8072
Previous Year's Canadian Dollar Value - Friday Noon          $0.9805        $0.9713       $0.9956       $1.0057          $1.0009

CME Lean Hog Futures (Friday's Closing Price - US $ per cwt.)
February 2009                                                 $62.45        $59.90         $58.93        $58.55           $56.35
April 2009                                                    $68.60        $66.00         $64.40        $62.98           $60.40
May 2009                                                      $80.43        $77.25         $75.40        $74.58           $72.65
June 2009                                                     $80.75        $78.00         $75.75        $75.50           $72.95
July 2009                                                     $81.15        $78.00         $75.83        $75.48           $73.60
August 2009                                                   $79.20        $77.20         $75.13        $74.13           $72.45
October 2009                                                  $71.10        $69.95         $68.28        $67.10           $66.28
December 2009                                                 $69.20        $67.75         $67.45        $66.20           $64.80
February 2010                                                 $71.40        $70.00         $69.98        $69.40           $69.50
April 2010                                                    $73.70        $72.40         $72.70        $72.00           $72.00
May 2010                                                      $77.40        $76.50         $76.50        $75.70           $75.70
June 2010                                                     $79.40        $78.50         $78.50        $78.00           $77.90

The Ontario Feed Market (Friday's Closing Prices)
Chicago Corn (US $/bushel) - Mar '09                         $4.1075        $3.9100       $3.9050       $3.7900          $3.7725
Chicago Soybeans (US $/bushel) - March '09                   $10.3600      $10.2000       $10.0900      $9.8000          $10.0100
Soybean Meal ($/tonne Hamilton + $20)                        $511.64        $498.41       $500.40       $472.51          $491.03
Old Crop Corn ( farm price - $/tonne) - based on Mar '09     $181.39        $173.61       $173.42       $166.92          $168.99
Western Ontario Feed Corn ($/tonne) - based on Mar '09       $193.99        $183.85       $185.23       $180.70          $181.19
New Crop Corn (farm Price - $/tonne)- based on Dec '09       $192.61        $185.72       $183.46       $179.13          $177.85
DDG's FOB Chatham/Sarnia ($/tonne)                           $157.50        $160.00       $175.00       $185.00          $185.00

U.S. Weekly Imports by State of Entry from Canada (# of pigs)
Feeder Pigs - Total from Canada                              124,891        99,690         97,860        96,141
               @ North Dakota                                107,528        82,345         84,370        83,741
               @ Michigan & New York                          14,325        14,195         13,490        11,350
Market Pigs - Total from Canada                               22,928        18,231         15,728        10,204
               @ North Dakota                                 3,056          3,458         2,952         2,771
               @ Michigan & New York                          13,147         9,428         7,545         3,727

For data sources and explanation of the various reported items, refer to the “Weekly Hog Market Facts Notes, May 2008”
                                           Monday, February 9, 2009               Weekly Hog Market Facts
Compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA…. ………….…………… john.bancroft@ontario.ca

Direct Excerpts from Hog Outlook, Grimes & Plain, Jan. 30, 2009, http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull1c.htm
• Gilt and sow slaughter data indicates producers are not changing the sow herd very much if any in either direction.
• Demand for pork at the consumer level continues to be weak. For 2008, the consumer demand was down 3.5 percent
   from 2007. Beef demand was also weak with a decline of 4.1 percent last year from a year earlier.
• Live hog demand for 2008 was up six percent from 12 months earlier. The big increase in exports of pork is the major
   reason for the strong live hog demand.
• Consumer demand
   is likely to                                 Weekly U.S. Pork Cutout Price vs. Hog Price (US$/cwt)
   continue weak as
                                                                                        Pork Cutout                                     Hog Price
   we go through
   2009 due to the          $100
                                                                                               2008                                                                                           2009
   weak general              $95
   economy but
   smaller chicken           $90
   supplies will be
                             $85
   positive.
• The weak                   $80
   consumer demand
   for pork continues        $75
   to be reflected in
                             $70
   pork cutout per cwt
   of carcass.               $65
• It continues to be
   unclear why               $60
   packers are paying        $55
   as much as they are
   for hogs with the         $50
   current cutout.
                             $45
   Hopefully it means            1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

   exports are strong.
   The prices packers receive for exports are not included in the cutout values reported by the USDA.

Direct Excerpts from Hog Outlook, Grimes & Plain, Feb. 6, 2009, http://agebb.missouri.edu/mkt/bull1c.htm
• The demand for the three major meats was down last year. Pork demand was down 3.5 percent, beef down 4.1 percent
   and broiler down one percent.
• Demand weakness for all meats in the last year is probably mostly due to the weak general economy and relative high
   unemployment rate. Though the odds are very high that demand for meats will be down in 2009 from 2008.
• This weaker demand along with the relative high grain prices means the hog herd will need to be reduced more than
   we have done so to date. We probably need to reduce the breeding herd at least double the December 1, 2008
   reduction from a year earlier. We believe the herd will need to be reduced at least 5 percent and maybe as much as 10
   percent if demand continues weak as seems most likely.
• Barrow and gilt weights continued their seasonal decline with Iowa-Minnesota weights at 268.7 pounds last week
   down 0.3 pounds from a week earlier but up 0.4 pounds from a year earlier. This data continues to adds evidence to
   the belief that marketing are not as current as they were since late summer.
• Gilt slaughter for the past month has been below a year earlier. This suggests we probably have stopped the decline
   that was started last winter. The probabilities are high that we need to reduce the breeding herd another 3-5 percent to
   get marketing more in line with demand and get a price that at least meets costs for the average cost producer.
• Unless demand strengthens or marketing are less than expected, 2009 will likely register losses for the average cost
   production that did not take price protection.



For data sources and explanation of the various reported items, refer to the “Weekly Hog Market Facts Notes, May 2008”
                                           Monday, February 9, 2009               Weekly Hog Market Facts
Compiled by John Bancroft, Market Strategies Program Lead, Stratford OMAFRA…. ………….…………… john.bancroft@ontario.ca



          Weekly Average Value DDG's FOB Chatham/Sarnia (C$/tonne)
  $205
                                                                                                                                                        2008                    2009
  $200
  $195
  $190
  $185
  $180
  $175
  $170
  $165
  $160
  $155
  $150
  $145
  $140
  $135
  $130
           1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
                                                 Data Source: Daily Ontario Commodity Report
                                                 This is the simple weekly average of the daily reported data


Within the Weekly Hog Market
Facts data on page 2, a new line                                   Weekly Soybean Meal Average Price (Hamilton Price plus $20)
for the Friday reported value of                                                     2008                 2009                3 Year Avg ('05 to '07)
                                                  $560
DDG’s has been added in the
The Ontario Feed Market                           $540

section. The value is the average                 $520
value of DDG’s FOB                                $500
Chatham/Sarnia in Canadian                        $480
dollars per tonne as reported in                  $460
the Daily Ontario Commodity                       $440
Report. The above graph provides                  $420
the weekly average value of                       $400
DDG’s for 2008 and the first six
                                                  $380
weeks of 2009. The data for
                                                  $360
weeks 1 to 31 in 2008 is Chatham
                                                  $340
only and for week 32 until present
is the average for                                $320

Chatham/Sarnia.                                   $300
                                                  $280
                                                  $260
                                                           1   3    5   7   9   11   13   15    17   19   21   23   25   27   29   31   33   35   37   39   41   43   45   47   49   51

                                                 $/tonne                                       Data Source: Daily Ontario Commodity Report


For data sources and explanation of the various reported items, refer to the “Weekly Hog Market Facts Notes, May 2008”

				
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