Early Selection in Hungary A possible Cause of High Educational

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					      Early Selection in Hungary
A Possible Cause of High Educational Inequality

                 Daniel Horn
                  research fellow
             IE-HAS and ELTEcon
             horn@econ.core.hu
                       Motivation
• Age of selection is likely the best proxy for comprehensive
  schooling (The later the first age of selection the longer
  students will study in heterogeneous groups)
• Comprehensive schooling is said to be decreasing
  inequality (Meghir and Palme 2005, Pekkarinen, Uusilato
  and Kerr 2007)
   – and tracking correlates with higher inequality across countries
     (e.g. Hanushek and Woessmann 2005, Pfeffer 2008, Horn 2009)
• Why?
   – Teachers matter (Hanushek, Rivkin and Kain 2005; McKinsey
     2007)
   – Peers matter (Sacerdote 2001, Hanushek et al 2003.)
   – …
• So the longer one studies in selected groups the larger the
  difference will be
• The Hungarian system is an „ideal” case for testing early
  selection
• Inequality in the
  Hungarian
  education system
  is especially high


 The system of
 education is
 certainly not
 comprehensive


                       Source: OECD PISA 2009 Vol. II, p 44.
        The Hungarian public education
                   system      Early-selective tracks
                                                                                                                               8-yr-ac and 6-yr-ac
HUNGARY           2009/2010

level         ISCED 0             ISCED 1                               ISCED 2                                                    ISCED 3
                                  1st cycle                             2nd cycle
Grade                         1       2       3       4        5        6        7        8                9             10          11        12        13
                                                                                              academic secondary school track.
          kindergarten general school                                                         ISCED 3a


                                                                                                                                                    1



                                                                                              vocational secondary school track.
                                                                                              ISCED 3a
                                                                                              (technikum)
                                                                                                                                                    1



                                                                                              vocational training track ISCED 3c

                                                                                              (ex-apprentice training)




Age       3   4   5      6        7       8       9       10       11       12       13       14               15             16          17        18
                Number     general   8-yr-ac   6-yr-ac   4-yr-ac   technikum voc.
                of sites                                                     train.

  Track type      2463
                  228
                               1
                               0
                                         0
                                         0
                                                   0
                                                   0
                                                             0
                                                             0
                                                                       0
                                                                       1
                                                                                 0
                                                                                 1

combinations      162
                   95
                               0
                               0
                                         0
                                         0
                                                   0
                                                   0
                                                             0
                                                             1
                                                                       1
                                                                       1
                                                                                 0
                                                                                 0
                   91          0         0         0         1         0         0
 within sites      82
                   78
                               1
                               0
                                         0
                                         0
                                                   1
                                                   0
                                                             1
                                                             0
                                                                       0
                                                                       0
                                                                                 0
                                                                                 1
                   72          1         0         0         1         0         0
                   52          1         1         0         1         0         0
                   50          0         0         0         1         1         1
                   43          1         0         0         0         0         1
                   23          1         1         0         0         0         0
                   23          1         0         1         0         0         0
                   23          1         0         1         1         1         0
                   15          1         1         0         1         1         0
                   14          1         0         0         0         1         0
                    8          0         0         1         1         0         0
                    8          1         0         0         0         1         1
                    8          1         0         0         1         1         0
                    7          1         0         0         1         0         1
                    7          1         0         0         1         1         1
                    5          0         0         0         1         0         1
                    3          1         0         1         0         1         0
                    3          1         1         1         1         0         0
                    2          0         1         0         1         0         0
                    2          0         0         1         1         1         0
                    2          1         0         1         1         1         1
                    1          0         0         1         1         1         1
                    1          1         1         0         0         1         0
                    1          1         1         1         0         0         0
                    1          1         1         0         1         0         1
                    1          1         1         0         1         1         1
                    1          1         1         1         1         1         0
                 Questions
• Are early-selective tracks status selective?
• Do early-selective tracks have a higher value-
   added?
If answers are affirmative the early selective
   tracks increase initial differences between
   students based on their status. Thus, the
   Hungarian system is more unequal (ceteris
   paribus) because of the early selection.
                          Data
• National Assessment of Basic Competencies
  (NABC)
  – Annually collected since 2006, PISA-like survey of all
    6th, 8th and 10th grade students (see below)
  – Reading and mathematical literacy
  – Approximate mean: 1500, sd: 200 (before 2010: 500/100)
     • Cross cohort and cross year comparable. Mean 1500 and sd
       100 is only for 2008. 6th grade
  – Detailed background questionnaires (generated Socio-
    economic status (SES) index)
  – Individual panel since 2008
                                The NABC cohorts
        4th grade                      6th grade                 8th grade           10th grade

                                        20 students from every                       20 students from each track
2003                  0                         school                   0                from each school

                                        20 students from every    20 students from   20 students from each track
2004                  0                         school              every school          from each school

                                          every student from a                       30 students from each track
2006            full cohort              sample of 195 schools       full cohort       from each teaching site

                                          every student from a                       30 students from each track
2007            full cohort              sample of 200 schools       full cohort       from each teaching site


       every student from a
2008* sample of 200 schools                      full cohort         full cohort             full cohort

       every student from a
2009* sample of 200 schools                      full cohort         full cohort             full cohort

       every student from a
2010* sample of 200 schools                      full cohort         full cohort             full cohort
 * Individual identification numbers available
Descriptive statistics
       Number and percentage of students in different tracks
                    6th to 8th grade panel

                                                       2010/8th grade
                 Type of   General      8-yr-ac        6-yr-ac        Missing         Total
                 track

                 General       91200         194            5318            6821              103533
                              (81,9%)      (0,2%)          (4,8%)          (6,1%)             (93,0%)
2008/6th grade




                 8-yr-ac         136        3839                 80             66              4121
                               (0,1%)      (3,4%)          (0,1%)          (0,1%)              (3,7%)
                 Missing        3331              42         126                149             3648
                               (3,0%)      (0,0%)          (0,1%)          (0,1%)              (3,3%)
                 Total         94667        4075            5524            7036              111302
                              (85,1%)      (3,7%)          (5,0%)          (6,3%)        (100,0%)
                 Number and percentage of students in different tracks
                              8th to 10th grade panel

                                                                  2010/10th grade
                  Type of track 8-yr-ac    6-yr-ac    4-yr-ac         technikum    vc. training Missing    Total


                  General            139        293        28715          35948         17281     16097      98473
                                  (0,1%)     (0,2%)      (23,2%)         (29,0%)      (13,9%)    (13,0%)    (79,4%)
                  8-yr-ac           3024         32             488         191            23       177        3935
2008/8th grade




                                  (2,4%)     (0,0%)       (0,4%)          (0,2%)        (0,0%)    (0,1%)     (3,2%)
                  6-yr-ac             20       4617             599         249            24       277        5786
                                  (0,0%)     (3,7%)       (0,5%)          (0,2%)        (0,0%)    (0,2%)     (4,7%)
                  Missing             83        220         2627           6716          5979       153      15778
                                  (0,1%)     (0,2%)       (2,1%)          (5,4%)        (4,8%)    (0,1%)    (12,7%)
                  Total             3266       5162        32429          43104         23307     16704     123972
                                  (2,6%)     (4,2%)      (26,2%)         (34,8%)      (18,8%)    (13,5%) (100,0%)
              Average literacy scores
Math          2008/6th grade 2010/8th grade 2008/8th grade   2010/10th
                                                               grade
General           1491           1615           1604           1615*
8-yr-ac           1673           1782           1772           1821
6-yr-ac           1675           1756           1755           1807
4-yr-ac                                         1693*          1704
technikum                                       1598*          1608
voc. train.                                     1450*          1452

Read          2008/6th grade 2010/8th grade 2008/8th grade   2010/10th
                                                               grade
General           1494           1576           1583           1628*
8-yr-ac           1667           1746           1754           1817
6-yr-ac           1661           1726           1739           1806
4-yr-ac                                         1682*          1744
technikum                                       1578*          1622
voc. train.                                     1408*          1410
               Average SES
Socio-economic 2008/6th grade   2008/8th grade
Status (SES)
General (other)     -0,059

8-yr-ac              0,85              0,8
6-yr-ac              0,82              0,8
4-yr-ac                               0,39
technikum                             -0,1
voc. train.                          -0,81
1st question
ARE EARLY-SELECTIVE TRACKS STATUS SELECTIVE?
                   Problems
Pr(track)=a+b*SES+c*Score+e
• Test score point estimate for 8-yr-ac is
  endogenous
  Track->score->track choice
• 6-yr-ac is unbiased
  – 6th grade score is a unaffected by 6-yr-ac track
    effect
                    Logit estimate
             DV=6-yr-long academic tracks
6-yr-long academic                     (1)        (2)           (3)        (4)        (5)
SES, std                            2.961***                 2.041***   1.870***   2.075***
                                    (0.161)                  (0.0919) (0.0947) (0.0680)
Math score, 6th grade, std                       2.122***    1.859***   1.889***   2.498***
                                                  (0.120)     (0.102)   (0.125)    (0.0958)
Reading score, 6th grade, std                    1.818***    1.534***   1.480***   1.717***
                                                 (0.0759) (0.0624) (0.0743) (0.0701)
Female                                1.189***     1.063      1.124*      1.113     1.124**
                                      (0.0758) (0.0693) (0.0722) (0.0796) (0.0535)
Constant                             0.0339*** 0.0314*** 0.0254*** 0.0405***
                                     (0.00359) (0.00351) (0.00293) (0.00522)
Observations                           94,024     93,799      89,448     34,884     26,713
6-yr-ac closer than 3km                   n          n           n          y          y
Previous school FE                        n          n           n          n          y
   Robust, site-clusterer standard errors in parentheses, ORs reported; std - 0 mean/ 1-sd
                                *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
2nd question

DO EARLY-SELECTIVE TRACKS HAVE A
HIGHER VALUE-ADDED?
(6TH TO 8TH GRADE)
                      OLS estimate
           DV= literacy score 2008/8th grade
                      (1)         (2)         (3)         (4)         (5)         (6)         (7)         (8)         (9)        (10)
VARIABLES            Read        Math        Read        Math        Read        Math        Read        Math        Read        Math

General track      -150.6***   -141.6***   -28.17***    -1.659     -6.411**    10.07**     -7.513***    4.499      -39.32***    -26.12
                    (6.917)     (10.37)     (2.980)    (4.378)      (2.716)    (4.291)      (2.841)    (4.228)      (7.808)    (18.04)
8-yr-ac             19.84**     26.08*     15.18***    28.19***    14.87***    27.64***    14.35***    28.04***      0.897      32.13
                    (9.604)     (15.34)     (3.955)    (6.527)      (3.652)    (6.345)      (3.681)    (6.180)      (11.73)    (20.32)
Reading, 2008/6                            0.748***                0.543***    0.165***    0.543***    0.165***    0.533***    0.174***

                                           (0.00397)               (0.00477)   (0.00555)   (0.00477)   (0.00554)   (0.00398)   (0.00401)
Math, 2008/6                                           0.772***     0.222***    0.633***    0.222***    0.632***    0.241***    0.626***

                                                       (0.00561)   (0.00475)   (0.00646)   (0.00477)   (0.00647)   (0.00355)   (0.00490)
SES                                                                 16.16***    11.79***    16.30***    12.16***    13.23***    13.11***
                                                                    (0.744)     (0.899)     (0.743)     (0.899)     (0.542)     (0.574)
female
                                                                   43.45***    -26.57***   43.43***    -26.66***   43.54***    -27.65***
                                                                   (0.967)      (1.094)    (0.967)      (1.094)    (0.922)      (0.960)
Ed. Provider FE        n           n          n           n           n            n          y            y          n            n

Site FE                n          n           n           n           n           n           n           n           y           y
Constant            1,726***   1,756***    483.6***    461.3***    414.7***    426.3***    416.3***    433.3***    432.7***    455.1***
                    (6.703)    (10.19)     (7.294)     (10.13)     (7.453)     (10.38)     (7.573)     (10.53)     (9.285)     (18.42)

Observations        85,550      85,549     85,550      85,549     82,211      82,210     82,211       82,210      82,211        82,210
R-squared            0.062       0.051      0.598       0.577      0.638       0.595      0.638        0.596       0.696         0.711
                Reference 6-yr-ac, Robust site clustered standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
                   Problems
• Endogenity – students start general tracks six
  years, and 8-yr-ac tracks two years earier than
  we measure them. Thus 6th grade test scores
  reflect the quality of the given track (6-yr-ac
  value-added is unbiased)
• Instrumental variable estimation
  – instrument: distance from nearest 6-yr-ac and 8-
    yr-ac
            Instrumental variable estimation
                              OLS                           IV - First stage                IV- Second Stage
VARIABLES          Read               Math              alt                gimn8          Read            Math

alt               -7.513***          4.499                                               -97.80**        -7.669
                   (2.841)          (4.228)                                               (42.33)       (60.49)
8-yr-long          14.35***         28.04***                                              -6.899         -58.48
                   (3.681)          (6.180)                                               (48.67)       (71.32)
Reading, 2008/6    0.543***         0.165***       -7.91e-05***       3.45e-05***        0.536***       0.167***

                  (0.00477)         (0.00554)       (1.08e-05)        (7.93e-06)        (0.00574)      (0.00710)
Math, 2008/6       0.222***          0.632***      -0.000198***       7.43e-05***        0.205***       0.636***

                  (0.00477)         (0.00647)       (1.98e-05)         (1.43e-05)       (0.00918)       (0.0128)
SES                16.30***          12.16***       -0.0297***          0.0113***        13.46***        12.97***
                   (0.743)           (0.899)         (0.00258)          (0.00173)        (1.375)         (1.906)
female             43.43***         -26.66***       -0.0136***         0.00878***        42.48***       -26.09***
                   (0.967)           (1.094)         (0.00281)          (0.00178)        (1.139)         (1.370)
Distance from                                       0.000833**        -0.00187***
8-yr-ac
                                                    (0.000370)         (0.000226)
Distance from                                       0.00174***         0.000670*
6-yr-ac
                                                    (0.000409)         (0.000355)
Ed. Provider FE      y                 y                 y                  y               y              y

Constant          416.3***          433.3***         1.340***           -0.129***        538.5***       436.5***
                  (7.573)           (10.53)          (0.0294)           (0.0207)         (55.98)        (79.61)

Observations       82,211            82,210           85,812             85,812           82,079         82,078

R-squared          0.638           0.596             0.251             0.121               0.626         0.590
                       Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
2nd question

DO EARLY-SELECTIVE TRACKS HAVE A
HIGHER VALUE-ADDED?
(8TH TO 10TH GRADE)
                     (1)         (2)         (3)             (4)           (5)            (6)            (7)         (8)         (9)        (10)
VARIABLES           Read        Math        Read            Math          Read           Math           Read        Math        Read        Math


8-yr-long          11.80       14.65       1.215           1.837         -0.696         1.666         -1.325       1.574      -0.195       -1.311
                  (10.06)     (15.32)     (5.343)         (6.949)        (4.632)       (6.719)        (4.586)     (6.398)     (6.568)     (7.946)
4-yr-long
                  -61.41***   -102.6***   -23.83***       -57.09***     -18.29***      -47.35***      -17.83***   -49.09***   -16.98***   -47.11***
                   (7.405)     (10.36)     (3.967)         (4.714)       (3.470)        (4.333)        (3.469)     (4.254)     (4.223)     (4.519)
Reading, 2008/8
                                          0.682***                       0.549***      0.194***       0.549***    0.193***    0.512***    0.167***
                                          (0.00538)                     (0.00533)      (0.00553)     (0.00534)    (0.00551)   (0.00473)   (0.00478)
Math, 2008/8
                                                          0.732***       0.181***      0.578***       0.179***    0.575***    0.146***    0.532***
                                                         (0.00878)      (0.00507)      (0.00891)     (0.00505)    (0.00884)   (0.00424)   (0.00811)
SES
                                                                         11.37***      11.23***       11.60***    11.51***    5.565***    6.734***
                                                                         (0.744)       (0.810)        (0.738)     (0.801)     (0.543)     (0.590)
female
                                                                         31.69***      -73.75***      31.51***    -73.93***   26.63***    -72.09***
                                                                         (1.396)        (1.520)       (1.389)      (1.514)    (1.116)      (1.264)
szakk
                  -183.6***   -198.4***   -74.17***       -83.47***     -55.90***      -72.16***      -53.69***   -73.87***   -50.66***   -68.80***
                   (8.064)     (11.65)     (4.366)         (5.439)       (3.882)        (4.891)        (3.925)     (4.879)     (5.305)     (5.958)
szaki
                  -396.1***   -354.9***   -172.1***       -132.2***     -138.4***      -109.8***      -136.9***   -112.4***   -128.5***   -112.3***
                   (8.463)     (11.37)     (5.194)         (5.982)       (4.866)        (5.593)        (4.896)     (5.592)     (6.059)     (6.934)
Ed. Provider FE       n           n           n               n             n              n              y           y           n           n


Site FE              n           n           n                n             n              n             n           n            y           y
Constant
                  1,806***    1,807***    619.0***        520.1***       507.7***      485.7***       514.2***    499.5***    622.5***    601.7***
                  (7.200)     (10.84)     (10.17)         (15.41)        (10.20)       (14.60)        (10.41)     (14.37)     (9.424)     (13.58)

Observations       76,530      76,521      76,530          76,521        73,256         73,253         73,256      73,253      73,256      73,253

R-squared          0.375       0.255       0.639            0.592         0.659          0.633         0.660       0.634       0.699       0.677

                                                 Robust standard errors in parentheses, reference: 6-yr-ac
                          Instrumental variable estimation
                                OLS                              IV - First stage                  IV- Second Stage
VARIABLES           Read                 Math                alt                gimn8            Read             Math

8-yr-long          13.74***            40.79***                                                   13.22          49.55*
                   (3.517)             (4.614)                                                  (25.31)         (29.26)
6-yr-long          16.00***            42.19***                                                  -15.17         44.15**
                   (3.446)             (3.734)                                                  (21.65)         (21.00)
Reading, 2008/8    0.546***            0.180***          8.77e-05***       0.000116***          0.549***        0.178***

                   (0.00808)           (0.00838)         (2.43e-05)         (2.49e-05)         (0.00866)       (0.00871)
Math, 2008/8        0.213***            0.708***         8.48e-05***        7.13e-05**          0.215***        0.707***

                   (0.00636)           (0.00991)          (2.90e-05)        (3.33e-05)         (0.00720)        (0.0103)
SES                 10.24***            9.553***           0.0110***         0.0305***          11.43***         9.333***
                    (0.933)             (1.033)            (0.00325)         (0.00422)          (1.099)          (1.160)
female              29.39***           -70.96***           -0.00383          -0.0131**          28.89***        -70.91***
                    (1.508)             (1.647)            (0.00372)         (0.00661)          (1.600)          (1.687)
Distance from 8-                                         -0.00423***         0.00101*
yr-ac
                                                         (0.000492)         (0.000612)
Distance from 6-                                          0.00123*          -0.00558***
yr-ac
                                                         (0.000708)         (0.000527)
Ed. Provider FE       y                    y                  y                  y                 y               y

Constant           445.7***            245.3***           -0.190***          -0.180***          437.9***        248.5***
                   (12.89)             (14.22)            (0.0530)           (0.0593)           (14.93)         (15.54)

Observations        30,889              30,889             32,396             32,396            30,859           30,859

R-squared           0.537              0.643              0.069              0.065                0.533          0.643
                            Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
Conclusion
                  Conclusion
• Early selective tracks are status selective (6-yr-
  ac tested)
• Early selective tracks have a higher value
  added – even if biased estimates are
  controlled for
  – Between 6th and 8th grade in reading, and
  – Between 8th adn 10th grade in math
• Early selection increases the gap between
  students of different social background
Thank you for your attention!

      Comments welcome!
      horn@econ.core.hu
Spatial distribution of early selective
                tracks

				
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