Learning Center
Plans & pricing Sign in
Sign Out

Economics PEST


									  Category                                                                     Scope (current and projected)                                                                          Source
                                         Average industrial gas prices including CCL were 34.1 per cent higher in current terms in Q2 2011 compared
                                         to Q2 2010, whilst prices excluding CCL were 35.4 per cent higher.
                                         Average industrial electricity prices including CCL were 2.7 per cent higher in current terms in Q2 2011        ces/prices.aspx
               Quarterly Energy Prices
                                         compared to Q2 2010, and prices excluding CCL were 2.8 per cent higher.
               (DECC, Sept. 2011)
                                         Average coal prices were 11.9 per cent higher in current terms including CCL and 12.7 per cent higher           trends/2872-pn11-077.pdf
                                         excluding CCL in Q2 2011 compared to Q2 2010. Heavy fuel oil prices were 22.1 per cent higher in current
                                         terms than a year ago.

Direct costs

                                         In 2010 Scotland had around one fifth more renewable generating capacity than England. Renewable
                                         generation in England was 45 per cent higher than in Scotland because biofuels based capacity (the most
                                         prevalent sources in England) are used more intensively than hydro and wind (which predominate in
                                         Scotland). During 2010 rainfall was 63 per cent lower than in 2009, making it the driest year since 2003, and
                                         average wind speeds were at their lowest level this century.

                                         In Wales generation from wind was over 4 times the generation from natural flow hydro, and Wales
                                         generates more electricity from wind than any English region. In 2010 wind generation in Scotland was
                                         nearly one-third more than in England, and almost five times as much as in Wales.

                                         In England the region with the largest renewable capacity is the South East, where 55 per cent of capacity is
                                         from wind. When combined, the South East, North West and East regions account for nearly three-fifths of
                                         England’s renewable generating capacity. London and the West Midlands have the lowest capacities.

                                         In England the regions with the largest generation from wind (including offshore wind with landfall
                                         in that region) were the East, North West, East Midlands and the South East; together they comprised
                                         85 per cent of the total. Almost two-thirds of landfill gas generation came from the East of England,
                                         South East and North West.

                                         Yorkshire and the Humber is the largest generator from “other biofuels” because of the co-firing of
                                         biomass in coal fired power stations.
                            Through research into the cost predictions by made by the International Energy Agency, and the US Energy
                            Information Administration, predictions have been plotted of the potential spread of oil, coal and gas prices
                            on the graphs below.

                            The highest volatility is expected for oil which has a lower boundary of a reduction of 5% over the next 20
                            years, and a higher estimate of an increase to almost 40% above current prices. The oil price will be
                                                                                                                                            International Energy Agency
Energy Prices               influenced by economic conditions and availability of supply.
(Deloitte research, 2011)
                                                                                                                                            US Energy Information Administration
                            Coal is expected to show the lowest volatility, with prices projected to be mainly between +/- 5% over the
                            next 20 years. This is due to the widespread availability of coal as an energy feedstock.

                            Gas prices are expected to rise significantly over the next 20 years, with the variance in predictions being
                            fairly low. Prices are projected to be almost 70% higher than currently by 2030. The availability of supply,
                            potential constraints due to political activity, and increased demand could all contribute to higher prices.

                                                   Oil                    Coal                       Gas
                                        DECC's projected rising energy (electricity and gas) projections from 2011 - 2050 are shown on the graph
               Energy Prices
Direct costs
               (DECC Scenarios, 2010)   The Electricity Market reform (EMR) could have a further impact on utility expenditures - with HMT
                                        announcing Carbon Floor Price to reach £70/t by 2030 (more than 300% increase from today's level). Refer
                                        to Policy table for details of EMR and Carbon Floor Price.

                                        UK-GBC literature review suggests that there are cost savings accessible to those that employ sustainable
                                        strategies. Sustainable buildings are designed to be more resource efficient. Reduced use of resources
                                        should have a positive impact on a company’s cost base over time. In the case of energy, the introduction of
                                        EPCs and DECs should help to provide further evidence to demonstrate the link between energy
                                        performance and value, in the longer term.                                                                     Making the Case for a Code for Sustainable Buildings: Value &
Cost savings   UK-GBC research
                                                                                                                                                       Business Case (UK-GBC, 2009)
                                        There remains, however, a lack of firm consensus on the exact ratio between capital cost outlays and
                                        potential cost savings and often the full range of benefits from a sustainable solution are not fully explored
                                        or explained. This is not surprising given the breadth of sustainability issues and the huge variety of
                                        structures in our built environment.
                                        The New Homes Bonus commenced in April 2011, and will match fund the additional council tax raised for
                                        new homes and empty properties brought back into use, with an additional amount for affordable homes,
                                        for the following six years.

                                        CLG has set aside almost £1bn over the Comprehensive Spending Review period for the scheme, including
                                        nearly £200m in 2011-12 in year 1 and £250m for each of the following three years. Funding beyond those
               New Homes Bonus
                                        levels will come from formula grant. This ensures that the economic benefits of growth are returned to the    bonus/
                                        local level.

                                        The New Homes Bonus will be paid through section 31 of the Local Government Act 2003 as an
                                        unringfenced grant. Local authorities and their communities will have the freedom to spend New Homes
                                        Bonus revenues according to local wishes and priorities.

                                            Business Rates are fixed known costs factored into operational costs.

                                            Non-domestic rates are a means by which businesses and other occupiers of non-domestic property
                                            indirectly contribute towards the costs of the services provided by local authorities.

                                            Rates are normally payable by the occupiers of business premises. These will usually be either the owner if
                                            he/she is the occupier of the property or the leaseholder.
                                            Apart from those properties which are exempt from rates, each non-domestic property has a rateable value. nIntroductionEnglish_110406.pdf
                                            The rateable value broadly represents the annual rent the property could have been let for on the open
Wider                                       market on a particular date, on full repairing and insuring terms. For the current rating lists, this date was
industry                                    set as 1 April 2008.
incentives                                  Local authorities are responsible for calculating actual rates bills and for collecting rates and will use the
                                            rateable value in working out how much you have to pay.

                                            Sustainable buildings are more valuable and thus attract a higher business rate.
                                            “The Valuation Office undertakes revaluations based on rental values prevailing at the statutory valuation
               Business Rates
                                            date, and if higher rents are payable for sustainable buildings, due to expected lower running costs, then the
                                            VOA cannot help but automatically put a premium on such buildings, which in turn will lead to higher rates
                                            being payable.”

                                            Two green exemptions:
                                            • The Valuation for Rating (Plant and Machinery) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2001, which provides
                                            permanent exemption for qualifying Combined Heat & Power Plant (CHP) from 1 April 2001.
                                            • The Valuation for Rating (Plant and Machinery) (England) (Amendment) Regulations 2008 grants                  http://andrew-
                                            exemption to microgeneration plant and machinery generating heat or power under certain limits and    
                                            installed after 1 October 2008. This exemption is limited from the date of installation until the date the next
                                            rating list is compiled.

                                            However, the latter means that, unless the government decides to extend the exemption, from 2015
                                            owners of microgeneration technologies, such as photovoltaics, solar heat, wind and micro-hydro,
                                            will be required to pay business rates. This will act as a disincentive to install such technologies
                                            because it will increase payback periods. It is also inequitable. An investor could be exempt for
                                            between 1 day and 6.5 years, depending on when it is installed.

               EU Emission Trading System
               Renewables Obligation
               CRC Energy Efficiency
               Climate Change Levy          Refer to the Policy table for details.
 trading and
   taxation    Climate Change Agreements
               Carbon floor price
               Mandatory reporting on
(Market        Green Deal and Energy
                                            Refer to the Policy table for details.
"pull"         Company Obligation
               Feed In Tariff
               Renewable Heat Incentive
                                            Refer to the Policy table for details.
                Enhanced Capital
                Allowances                   Refer to the Policy table for details.
                Domestic VAT Rebates
                Stamp duty rebate for zero
                carbon homes
                Supplier obligations
  Subsidies                                  Refer to the Policy table for details.
                Energy Company Obligation
                Green Investment Bank
Other sources   Public Sector Energy
                                             Refer to the Policy table for details.
of funding      Efficiency Loans
                DECC's Innovation Fund
  Category                                                                                  Scope (current and projected)                                                                                 Source
                                             To promote the uptake of sustainable techniques or upgrades it is critical for developers, landlords, investors, tenants and
                                             facilities managers to be able to: (a) attribute costs and financial benefits; (b) understand how those costs and benefits
                                             apply over time, and be able to evaluate alternatives on a comparable basis across the project life cycle; and (c)
                                             understand the basis of those comparisons.

                                             Life Cycle Costing (sometimes referred to as Whole Life Costing) provides a basis for comparing different approaches in
                                             terms of their likely costs and benefits over the project life cycle. There is now an international standard for Life Cycle
                                             Costing and, in the UK, an agreed method that supports this standard. In addition, there is a common European                  Making the Case for a Code for Sustainable Buildings: Value &
                UK-GBC research
                                             methodology for Life Cycle Costing with a particular emphasis on sustainable construction.                                     Business Case (UK-GBC, 2009)

                                             Life Cycle Costing is increasingly becoming widely used in construction and property investment decision making. There is
                                             also a growing body of data on the life expectancies and performance characteristics of buildings and their constituent
Whole life                                   components. This data, and the analysis methods available, will support clients and decision
costing (WLC)                                makers in considering all costs and benefits associated with the design, construction, operation and disposal of
                                             their buildings. A further issue is that in the UK, it is very rare that all costs associated with the lifecycle of a
Life cycle                                   building are channelled through the same profit centre.
costing (LCC)                                The IGT presented the difficult reality faced by designers and the perverse incentives created by the current focus on
                                             operational carbon. There is currently little incentive to reduce the carbon embodied in construction materials, for
                                             example if it is cheaper to use heavy materials such as bricks from abroad than the UK, the additional carbon emissions
                                             generated from transporting them would not be considered in an assessment of the final building. Equally, materials are
                                             rated on their contribution to improving energy efficiency and may be selected even if their production generates more
                                             emissions than they can save over their lifetime.
                IGT                                                                                                                                                         IGT Action Plan, June 2011
                                             It is therefore essential that we understand where carbon emissions are being generated in order to reduce them.
                                             Operational approaches do not account for the emissions resulting from the manufacturing or processing of components,
                                             their transportation, the construction process or the later demolition, recycling or disposal of waste. This whole life
                                             approach can be extended to encompass varying degrees of the construction process, which is reflected in different

                                             Dispersed responsibility for sustainability and climate change initiatives, inconsistent spending patterns within the same
                                             sector and noisy marketing obscure the true extent of spending by firms on sustainability initiatives. To overcome these
                                             challenges Verdantix created the Critical Moments model for budget benchmarking and market forecasting. We define
                                             climate change and sustainability (CC&S) spending as:
                                             Spending on employees, equipment, consulting, implementation services and support services directly linked to a firm’s
                                             strategic and commercial objectives in relation to sustainability, climate change, carbon management and energy
                Verdantix Critical Moments
Other                                        efficiency.
                                             The assessment of CC&S budgets applies explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria to provide a transparent basis for
                                             comparison. This definition excludes spending on consumables in manufacturing (including energy), goods for resale,
                                             investment flows, corporate transactions, large-scale renewable energy investments, financial trading of environmental
                                             assets like carbon credits and public sector spending. The Critical Moments model only includes incremental spend (if any)
                                             directly linked to CC&S goals for projects such as building a new
                                             “green” data centre. Business as usual spend is excluded. 

  Category                                                                        Scope (current and projected)                                                                                 Source
                                  Despite operating in a tough economic environment, there continues to be an appetite for
                                  sustainability among enterprises and supply chains, and from investors and other stakeholders. This
                                  is because sustainable business is about value creation over the short to long term, and the
                                  intentional migration toward desirable future outcomes for all groups of stakeholders.
                                  · For investors, desirable future outcomes include sustained revenue growth, increasing earnings per share,
                                  improving materials conversion yields, and reduced cost to serve.
                                  · For regulators and society at large, desirable future outcomes include environmental stewardship, social responsibility,
                                  proactive and organizationally aligned community engagement, and increasingly transparent supply-chainwide reporting of
                                  sustainable performance.
                                  · For consumers, desirable future outcomes include fit for purpose; reliable, price-efficient goods; and services designed with
                                  environmental, sustainable and other constraints in mind.
                                  · For employees in an increasingly talent-constrained environment, desirable future outcomes include workforce diversity, an
              Predicts 2012:      innovative and learning organizational culture, and a commitment that internal activities are matched
              Achieving a         in kind by the sustainability-enabling attributes of products and services.
              Business Focus on
              Sustainability,     It is always the case, and even more so in tough times, that organizations will focus on strategies,                                   Predicts 2012: Achieving a Business Focus on
Shareholder                       projects and programs that offer relatively low investment hurdle rates and rapid time to value.
              Energy,                                                                                                                                                    Sustainability, Energy, Performance and
demands                           Sustainable business is no exception. In response to the prolonged challenging economic
              Performance and                                                                                                                                            Technology
              Technology          environment and increasing concerns over the price, sources and security of energy, our current
                                  basket of predictions presents a pragmatic drive by organizations toward increases in technology enabled
              (Nov, 2011)         efficiency and performance.

                                  Companies are seeking to use sustainability to improve performance and manage risk, rather
                                  than merely comply with reporting requirements.

                                  Energy-intensive industries, such as paper and pulp, metals, and aviation, have long had strong
                                  capabilities in running energy-efficient operations (demand side). Similarly, many have
                                  demonstrated strength in managing market-related risks on the supply side. They are able to
                                  manage demand and supply, market, and reliability risks in a much more integrated way. While
                                  these industries will continue to benefit from monitoring and investment in new and emerging
                                  energy-related technologies rather than just relying on the tried and trusted, many are in a good
                                  position to mitigate their energy-related costs and risks. However, the same is not true for most
                                  other enterprises for whom energy costs and risks are not material, and as such have very limited,
                                  fragmented capabilities, with little or no focus on supply-side options beyond basic procurement.

                                  Even at the height of the boom market, the price of sustainability was an issue, as the cost                                      Making the Case for a Code for Sustainable Buildings:
              UK-GBC research
                                  savings arising out of energy efficiencies were typically ignored as too small, or requiring                                      Value & Business Case (UK-GBC, 2009)
                                  too long a payback period.
                                  In a recent survey undertaken for the British Council for Offices, the three factors which are expected to increase in importance
                                  most significantly will be those relating to environmental performance, utility cost and proximity to public transport. Whilst
                                  these shifts are not at the expense of other requirements, this highlights not only the rapid escalation of these issues as
                                  occupier requirements in relation to other factors, but also the likely effect it will have on the supply and pricing of office
                                  products of the future.
              Offices                                                                                                                                                    BCO, 2011

                                  A major increase in the requirement for low and zero carbon offices is also anticipated, but – critically – the parallel rise in the
                                  importance of refurbished space within the overall supply mix.

                                  (Refer to graphs in the report)
                    Occupiers will continue to need space which suits their operational and corporate requirements and this will largely boil down
                    to staff (location and skills base), location (transport and product promotion) and cost. For some occupiers their requirement
                    will now include space which is energy efficient and has a good environmental rating (under BREEAM or an equivalent scheme).
                    Many organisations, especially corporate and consumer-facing businesses, now see their buildings as fundamental to their
                    brand communication, staff retention and, most importantly, a visible reflection of how they do business.
                                                                                                                                                        CoreNet Global and Jones Lang LaSalle, 2011
                    The CoreNet Global and Jones Lang LaSalle Sustainability Survey (February 2011) indicates that sustainability is becoming an
                    increasingly important consideration for office tenants worldwide. Conducted in the fourth quarter of 2010, the results of the
                    international survey reveal that property executives are in the process of reconciling the focus on reducing environmental
                    impacts of buildings with the need to control costs and support corporate financial performance. Key survey findings are shown
Market              below:
                    Sustainability is a critical business issue today for 64 per cent of respondents

                    92 per cent consider sustainability criteria in their location decisions

                    The number of respondents willing to pay more for green leased space rose from 37 per cent in 2009 to 50 per cent in 2010. An
                    additional 23 per cent said they would pay more in rent if it were offset by lower energy costs.

                    48 per cent of occupiers would pay up to a 10 per cent premium for sustainable space, while 2 per cent expect to pay more
                    than 10 per cent

                    31 per cent of corporate executives ranked employee productivity and health as their top sustainability concern (up from 29
                    per cent in 2009), and an additional 11 per cent rated employee satisfaction as the most important factor

                    57 per cent regarded one to three years as an acceptable payback period for energy efficiency measures in owned space.

                    Just 4 per cent said they expect strategies to pay for themselves the first year, while 30 per cent said payback periods of three
                    to five years may be acceptable

                    Respondents still focus on energy efficiency (65 per cent) and waste recycling (61 per cent)

                    Green building certifications are considered by 88 per cent and energy labels by 87 per cent in administering their portfolio.
    Category              Provider

               E.ON Sustainable Energy
               & Self Energy

               Low Carbon Workplace

               Skanska / Arup / GE
                 Brookfield Green

                 Carbon Trust Implementation
                 Services and Siemens Financial

Collaborations   Greater Manchester Low Carbon
                 Economic Area (GM LCEA)
Stoke-on-Trent City Council:
creating a self-sufficient city
Birmingham Energy Savers
Pathfinder Programme - Green
                                        Scope (current and projected)
The Energy Energy Performance Guarantee delivers a guaranteed reduction in energy consumption and carbon
emissions over a partnership period that can be implemented with little or zero capital expenditure by the client.
In this way, both public and private sector buildings can make the step changes necessary without taking on the
technical risk of the project.

An Energy Performance Guarantee is a partnership between Self Energy and an energy user that allows Self
Energy to make the capital outlay required to minimise the energy costs & carbon emissions and increase the
security of energy supply for the energy user.

Self Energy will pay for (and manage where required) the optimal system containing energy saving and
generating assets and will recover this investment over a period of time through a shared savings approach. The
full savings approach and associated benefits are agreed beforehand. At the end of the contract, the energy user
benefits from the full savings for the rest of the operating life of the equipment.

A unique partnership between the Carbon Trust, developer Stanhope and fund manager Threadneedle, to
design, build and manage bespoke and contemporary offices for organisations committed to eco-friendly

The Partnership acquires buildings and updates them to provide modern, financially competitive and energy
efficient offices.

Low carbon Workplace Ltd Works with occupiers, providing ongoing support enabling them to minimise their
carbon emissions and to achieve the Carbon Trust's Low Carbon Workplace Standard.

Skanska has formed alliances with consultant Arup and technology giant GE to target the green retrofit market.
The construction firm's strategic partnership with Arup will see the pair jointly delivering green retrofit and
refurbishment, and pilot projects are expected in 2011. Its separate partnership with GE aims to develop new
environmental technologies and processes for the sector, and it too has pilot projects in the pipeline.

Through the partnership Arup and Skanska are integrating architectural, engineering, and financial risk analysis.
Collaboration will give them the capability to:
• assess buildings, identifying how value can be enhanced through physical interventions and return on assets
improved and develop a strategy
• provide design and construction expertise
• provide managed service options and monitoring.

All companies have their sights set on a UK retrofit and refurbishment market that could, according to estimates,
be worth more than £10 billion a year.
Four leading construction industry firms have established a unique venture to create the world’s first green
retrofitting business for commercial building stock, which launched in the UK in February 2011. Brookfield
Construction joined with architectural practice Woods Bagot, engineering consultancy WSP, and M&E contractor
Mercury to create Brookfield Green. Brookfield Green combines construction, engineering and design skills to
offer a comprehensive building upgrade service, catering for a market estimated to be in the region of £500bn.

The key element of the Brookfield Green offer to clients is the finance backed guarantee of operational
performance that is the first of its kind to be offered by a contractor in the global market. The public sector is
also a significant target for Brookfield Green. With the Coalition’s pledge to be the greenest ever government,
retrofitting offers a significant opportunity to improve financial and environmental performance across the
ageing estate, valued at an estimated £370bn.

“Brookfield Green’s unique, consultative approach means that not only can we deliver returns on investment
ensure compliance with sustainable regulations, but we can also contribute to improved business performance
delivering outcomes with the potential to enhance staff health, wellbeing and productivity, as well as improving
the attraction and retention of key resources. It is our unique combination of leading engineering solutions,
construction technology and cutting-edge workplace design that will deliver real value for our clients, when
compared with traditional models of project procurement.” 

Carbon Trust Implementation Services and Siemens Financial Services have combined forces and together are
offering leases, loans and other financing options to all types of organisations seeking to reduce their energy use.

The scheme is available to all kinds of businesses and organisations. Financing from Siemens Financial Services
can be arranged from £1000, and there are potentially no upper limits.

There are 6 stages to the business finance application process, from first submission through to equipment

Immediately after the equipment is installed, businesses will be required to sign a Certificate of Acceptance upon
which Siemens Financial Services will settle the payment direct with the supplier.

The programme is not supported by a specific allocation of Government funds and its delivery will depend upon
Greater Manchester’s ability to attract and deploy private investment in new and innovative ways ahead of the
UK market as whole. The Plan aims to catalyse and shape that market through private and public investment
and deliver jobs and growth while creating the necessary longer term market conditions to make significant
reductions in CO2 over the next 20 years and beyond.

Talks have already been held with the European Investment Bank and other private investment institutions and
projects are being actively developed with a number of authorities that if scaled up in sufficient quantity across
Greater Manchester could become attractive for such investors.. Discussions have been held with the HCA in the
context of their single allocation to Greater Manchester and the specific element of that programme that might
support residential retrofit. Low Carbon projects are also identified within the pipeline for the new NW Jessica

However maximising this opportunity for Greater Manchester will demand a scaling up of activity and the
development of projects into large portfolios for market investment. This will require a new and innovative
way of working on the part of AGMA, individual authorities and partners

The programme identifies how through this new way of working it will be possible to unlock a range of new
investment opportunities including:
• In social housing (which makes up 25% of the residential housing stock in Greater Manchester) securing
from the Homes and Communities Agency and seeking funding from European programmes. Through close
with a Greater Manchester consortium of RSL’s, a potential pipeline of £140m of schemes has already been
With support from the proposed Centre of Excellence districts and RSL’s will be able to take this pipeline and
a portfolio of social housing projects for both HCA and private sector investment.

• In the private residential sector, through the fast and early deployment at scale of national programmes such
Pay-as-you-Save and Feed in Tariffs.

• In the public sector - through local authorities and other bodies such as hospitals and universities working
to assemble portfolios of properties that can allow private investment opportunities that are becoming available
energy companies and others to offer up-front capital investment on the basis that there is an apportionment of
savings generated.
The city council is one of 17 local authorities who have been selected by NESTA (the National Endowment for
• In the commercial sector working to overcomeGovernment Group to take part in the ‘Creative Councils’ be
Science, Technology and the Arts) and the Local some of the existing difficulties to allow for investment to
programme, which aims to support pioneering councils to develop, implement and spread transformational new
approaches to meeting some of the biggest medium and long-term challenges facing communities and local

NESTA, along with the Local Government Group, will provide expert advice to the city council to help develop its
idea for how the city can fuel itself in years to come.

The city council’s idea involves using surplus fuel generation capacity within Stoke-on-Trent, from businesses and
industry, to power the city itself, reducing a reliance on externally provided energy, attracting investment by
cutting fuel bills, giving new businesses an incentive to base themselves in the city, and safeguarding existing
Birmingham City Council is planning to set up the one of the first Green Deal programmes (Birmingham Energy
Savers Pathfinder Programme or BES PP). An OJEU notice was published in July to procure a delivery partner. The
delivery partner will help guide customers through a simplified process of assessing needs and costs to identify
the measures that improve the energy efficiency of each house – insulation, glazing, heating controls, draught-
proofing, replacement heating systems. The householder will be advised which of these meet the “golden rule”
(the costs of installation are less than the savings achieved through reduced fuel costs).

The delivery partner will commission local companies to install (and maintain) these and BES PP will pay for the
work upfront. Householders will then repay BES PP over time, using the fuel cost savings to pay a fixed charge
through their energy bills. Measures funded from Feed in Tariff and Renewable Heat Incentive will also be

The numbers of installations planned in Birmingham alone are staggering – 15,000 by 2015, 60,000 by 2020,
200,000 by 2026.

One of the big questions is can the West Midlands construction industry rise to the challenge?
And the second challenge will be to find households willing to take advantage of the scheme. Often these will be
home owners already planning to renovate or extend the properties. So the second question is whether the
refurbishment suppliers and DIY retailers are willing to partner BES PP? Will they be ambassadors to home
at the time that they are most likely to take advantage of the BES PP scheme?

To top