Docstoc

Supply and Demand of U.S

Document Sample
Supply and Demand of U.S Powered By Docstoc
					Supply and Demand of
U.S. DDGS
Dr. Jerry Shurson
Department of Animal Science
University of Minnesota
Ethanol Plants in North America - June 16, 2004




                                             Under Construction or proposed

                                                Ethanol Plants
                        U.S. DDGS Production

                                                                                7,000,000
              7000000

              6000000

              5000000
Metric Tons




              4000000                                               3,500,000
                                                        3,000,000
              3000000

              2000000                       1,800,000

                                  900,000
              1000000   320,000
                    0
               1980     1985    1990       1995    2000                         Est 2005
Source: Steve Markham – Commodity Specialists Company
U.S. Ethanol Industry
   2004
       80 fuel ethanol plants
           3.640 billion gallons of ethanol
           6.928 million metric tonnes DDGS
   2005
       17 new ethanol plants will expand or start production
           4.394 billion gallons of ethanol
           8.363 million metric tonnes DDGS (17% increase)
   2006
       DDGS production is expected to increase and additional
        17-20%
DDGS Consumed by Domestic and
Export Markets

        14%



                        U.S Consumption
                        Export
          86%
                       U.S. DDGS Consumption

           Estimate 2001                                             Estimate 2002

                 4%
                                                                  15 %
                                                       5%
36%                                                                                   45%    D a iry
                                    D airy
                                                                                             B eef
                                    B eef
                                                                                             P o ult ry
                                    P o ultry/ Swine                                         S wine
                            60%
                                                            35%




            Estimate 2003                                            Estimate 2004
           11%                                                16 %
      4%
                                                       3%
                              46%     D a iry                                        44%    D a iry
                                      B eef                                                 B eef
                                      P o ult ry                                            P o ult ry
                                      S wine                                                S wine
  39%
                                                        37%




                                                                                            CSC 2005
Major U.S. DDGS Importing
Countries (84% of Total Exports)

                8.3%

         9.2%            22.6%   Ireland
                                 UK
                                 Canada
        9.3%
                                 Spain
                                 Mexico
          11.0%        24.0%     Portugal
Asian Countries Importing U.S.
DDGS (4.5% of Total Exports)

                             Malaysia
                             Indonesia
                             Taiwan
                             Vietnam
                             S. Korea
                             Philippines
                             China
                             Thailand
                             Japan
DDGS Exports
   Most countries are requesting containers
       Difficulty in handling 5000 MT in large vessels
2005 DDGS Demand
   Factors affecting demand:
       Soybean meal price
       Ocean freight costs
   If export demand remains stable:
       U.S. livestock and poultry industry would need to
        consume an additional 1.285 million MT
           Require an additional 685,300 dairy cows
               Difficult to achieve
2005 DDGS Demand
   Beef feedlots must overcome freight costs from
    ethanol plants located outside of the SW U.S.
   U.S. swine industry offers the greatest potential for
    increased consumption
       many of the new ethanol plants are located in areas of
        concentrated pig production
   Increased use in U.S. poultry and aquaculture
    industries, but quantity consumed/animal unit is
    significantly less than other species
DDGS Demand
   DDGS exports must increase
       Saturation of U.S. DDGS markets
       Rapidly increasing supply

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:22
posted:11/22/2012
language:English
pages:12