decision by xuyuzhu

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									Single-model case
Changing utility or probability values (shaded cells) changes expected decision utilities and choice of optimal decision


         Decision       Outcome           Utility   Probability         E(Utility)
         Reserve        Persist                  70     1.000                   70
                        Extinct                  20     0.000

         Nothing        Persist                 100          0.000                0
                        Extinct                   0          1.000

                                         Optimal Decision →             Reserve




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oice of optimal decision
Model uncertainty
Changing values of utilities, probabilities, or model weights (shaded cells) changes expected decision utilities and choice of opt


         Decision       Outcome           Utility        Model 1        Model 2         E(Utility)
         Reserve        Persist                  70        0.500          0.650            48.75
                        Extinct                  20        0.500          0.350

         Nothing        Persist                 100          0.500           0.500              50
                        Extinct                   0          0.500           0.500

                                  Model Weights              0.500           0.500

                                                         Optimal Decision →             Nothing




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cision utilities and choice of optimal decision
Adaptive Updating
Changing values of utilities, probabilities, or model weights (shaded cells) changes expected decision utilities and choice of opt

    Model Initiation
          Decision       Outcome           Utility        Model 1        Model 2
          Reserve        Persist                  70        0.500          0.650
                         Extinct                  20        0.500          0.350

          Nothing        Persist                 100          0.500           0.500
                         Extinct                   0          0.500           0.500

                             Initial model weights            0.500           0.500


    Adaptive Decision Making
                          Prior model weights              Expected Utility                   Decision
             Time         Model 1     Model 2            Reserve    Nothing              Optimal     Yours             Outcome
               1            0.5000      0.5000              48.75       50.00            Nothing
               2          #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!            #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!              #DIV/0!
               3          #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!            #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!              #DIV/0!
               4          #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!            #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!              #DIV/0!
               5          #DIV/0!     #DIV/0!            #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!              #DIV/0!



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Reserve   Persist
Nothing   Extinct
n utilities and choice of optimal decision




                     Conditional likelihoods Updated model weights
              case    Model 1      Model 2    Model 1    Model 2
                0          0.00         0.00  #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!
                0          0.00         0.00  #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!
                0          0.00         0.00  #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!
                0          0.00         0.00  #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!
                0          0.00         0.00  #DIV/0!    #DIV/0!

								
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