# MAT 540 Midterm Exam by xuyuzhu

VIEWS: 164 PAGES: 16

• pg 1
```									MAT 540 Midterm Exam:

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

False

5 points

Question 2

1.

A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive
can occur simultaneously.

False

5 points

Question 3

1.

An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10
products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

False

5 points

Question 4

1.

A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability
nodes, and branches.
False

5 points

Question 5

1.

A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

False

5 points

Question 6

1.

Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random
variables.

False

5 points

Question 7

1.

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term
strategic planning process.

False

5 points

Question 8
1.

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

False

5 points

Question 9

1.

In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability
of the occurrence of an event.

marginal
conditional
binomial
revised

5 points

Question 10

1.

A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new
products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the
chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for
each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

0.80
0.032
0.24
0.096
5 points

Question 11

1.

The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional
information.

expected opportunity loss
expected value
expected value of perfect information
none of the above

5 points

Question 12

1.

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine
breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the
simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of
Cumulative
breakdowns    Probability
probability
per week
0              .10            .10
1              .25            .35
2              .36            .71
3              .22            .93
4              .07           1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

.10
.25
.35
.71

5 points

Question 13

1.

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

simulation numbers
data sets
random number ranges
all of the above

5 points

Question 14

1.

Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

1
2
3
4

5 points
Question 15

1.

In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a
probability distribution.

sampling from
running
integrating
implementing

5 points

Question 16

1.

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to
the most recent demand.

-1
0
1
-1 or 1

5 points

Question 17

1.

__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and
dependent variables.

Correlation
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression

5 points

Question 18

1.

rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The
U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is
distributed as follows:

Yield, bushels
Probability
per acre
350          .10
400          .18
450          .50
500          .22

The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?

425
442
440
475

5 points

Question 19
1.

__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term
strategic planning process.

Regression
Qualitative
Time series
all of the above

5 points

Question 20

1.

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to
respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

.01
.10
.50
.90

5 points

Question 21

1.

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict
future behavior.

Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods

5 points

Question 22

1.

Consider the following demand and forecast.

Period   Demand Forecast
1         7     10
2        12     15
3        18     20
4        22

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

19
20
21
none of the above

5 points

Question 23

1.

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Cyclical only
None of the above

5 points

Question 24

1.

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable
that results from the __________ variable.

dependent, dependent
independent, dependent
dependent, independent
independent, independent

5 points

Question 25

1.

A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of
0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four
places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 26

1.

An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The
probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both
shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is
the probability of receiving xi complaints.

xi      0     1       2       3       4      5       6
p(xi)   .10   .15     .18     .20     .20    .10     .07

places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 27

1.

A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will
occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 28

1.

A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the
probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal
distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion
four places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 29

1.
Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

5 points

Question 30

1.

An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each
opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table
below.

Economic Condition
Poor         Average   Good     Excellent
Investment   (S1)          (S2)    (S3)      (S4)
A         50            75       20        30
B         80            15       40        50
C      -100            300      -50        10
D         25            25       25        25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively,
what is the highest expected payoff?

5 points

Question 31

1.

Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation
value would be __________.

5 points

Question 32

1.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream
store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 33

1.

Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and
winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 34

1.

This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the

5 points

Question 35

1.

Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year    Demand        Forecast

2001              16            18
2002              20            19
2003              18            24

5 points

Question 36

1.

Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102,
101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

5 points

Question 37

1.

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream
store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

5 points

Question 38

1.

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

Actual
Month
Demand
March           20
April           25
May             40
June            35
July            30
August          45

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32.
Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

5 points

Question 39

1.

The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

Actual
Month     Demand
March         20
April         25
May           40
June          35
July          30
August        45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is
MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15%
should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

5 points

Question 40

1.

The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Year           Sales         Forecast
2003             7              9
2004            12             10
2005            14             15
2006            20             22
2007            16             18
2008            25             21

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the
decimal.

```
To top