# manma18 by xuyuzhu

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• pg 1
```									Question 1

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no
uncertainty exists in model parameters.

False

5 points
Question 2

1. A continuous random variable may assume only
integer values within a given interval.

False

5 points
Question 3

1. A joint probability is the probability that two or
more events that are mutually exclusive can
occur simultaneously.

False

5 points
Question 4

1. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles
decision nodes, square probability nodes, and
branches.

False

5 points
Question 5

1. A table of random numbers must be normally
distributed and efficiently generated.

False

5 points
Question 6

1. Excel can only be used to simulate systems that
can be represented by continuous random
variables.

False

5 points
Question 7

1. Qualitative methods are the least common type
of forecasting method for the long-term strategic
planning process.

False

5 points
Question 8

1. Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical
patterns.

False

5 points
Question 9

1. In Bayesian analysis, additional information is
used to alter the __________ probability of the
occurrence of an event.

marginal
conditional
binomial
revised
5 points
Question 10

1. A company markets educational software
products, and is ready to place three new
products on the market. Past experience has
shown that for this particular software, the
chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the
probability of success is independent for each
product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of
the 3 products is successful?

0.80
0.032
0.24
0.096
5 points
Question 11

1. The __________ is the expected value of the
regret for each decision.

expected value
expected opportunity loss
expected value of perfect information
none of the above
5 points
Question 12

1. In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random
variable are generated by __________ a
probability distribution.

sampling from
running
integrating
implementing
5 points
Question 13

1. A seed value is a(n)

steady state solution of a simulation experiment
number used to start a stream of random numbers
first run of a simulation model
analytic solution of a simulation experiment
5 points
Question 14

1. Random numbers generated by a __________
process instead of a __________ process are
pseudorandom numbers.

physical / physical
physical / mathematical
mathematical / physical
mathematical / mathematical
5 points
Question 15

1. Developing the cumulative probability
distribution helps to determine

simulation numbers
data sets
random number ranges
all of the above
Question 16

1. Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a
6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use
exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a
forecast for period 7.

273
277
267.8
286.2
5 points
Question 17

1. Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period    Demand Forecast
1          7     10
2         12     15
3         18     20
4         22

2.

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

19
20
21
none of the above
5 points
Question 18

1. __________ is a measure of the strength of the
relationship between independent and
dependent variables.

Correlation
Linear regression
Coefficient of determination
Regression
5 points
Question 19

1. __________ is a category of statistical
techniques that uses historical data to predict
future behavior.

Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
5 points
Question 20

1. __________ is a linear regression model relating
demand to time.

Linear trend
Linear regression
Forecast demand
Linear equation
5 points
Question 21
1. Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is
exhibited by the data?

Trend only
Trend plus seasonal
Cyclical only
None of the above
5 points
Question 22

1. Coefficient of determination is the percentage of
the variation in the __________ variable that
results from the __________ variable.

dependent, dependent
independent, dependent
dependent, independent
independent, independent
5 points
Question 23

1. __________ is absolute error as a percentage of
demand.

Cumulative error
MAPD
Average error
5 points
Question 24

1. rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time
limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S.
Department of Agriculture estimates that the
yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as
follows:
Yield, bushels
Probability
per acre
350          .10
400          .18
450          .50
500          .22

2.

The estimated average price per bushel is
\$16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?

425
442
440
475
5 points
Question 25
1. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer
complaints received each week. The probability
distribution for complaints can be represented as
a table or a graph, both shown below. The
random variable xi represents the number of
complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of
receiving xi complaints.
xi      0     1     2     3        4     5     6
p(xi)   .10   .15   .18   .20      .20   .10   .07

2.

What is the average number of complaints
places after the decimal.

5 points
Question 26

1. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a
mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5
oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger
after the decimal.

5 points
Question 27

1. The drying rate in an industrial process is
dependent on many factors and varies according
to the following distribution.

Compute the mean drying time. Use two places
after the decimal.

5 points
Question 28

1. An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs
and probabilities. Each person is limited to one
entry.

The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is
________.

5 points
Question 29

1. The local operations manager for the IRS must
decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary
workers. He estimates that net revenues will
vary with how well taxpayers comply with the
new tax code.

If he is conservative, how many new workers will
he hire?

5 points
Question 30

1. Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole

5 points
Question 31

1. Consider the following distribution and random
numbers:
If a simulation begins with the first random
number, what would the first simulation value
would be __________.

5 points
Question 32

1. Robert wants to know if there is a relation
between money spent on gambling and
winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Use
two significant places after the decimal.

5 points
Question 33

1. This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to
forecast the increased sales for when the

5 points
Question 34

1. Consider the following annual sales data for
2001-2008.
Year     Sales
2001     2
2002     4
2003     10
2004     8
2005     14
2006     18
2007     17
2008     20

2.

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four
significant digits after the decimal.

5 points
Question 35

1. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week
(from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101,
96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today
using a weighted moving average, with weights
of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are
applied to the most recent data.

5 points
Question 36
1. The following sales data are available for 2003-
2008 :
Year       Sales    Forecast
2003         7         9
2004        12        10
2005        14        15
2006        20        22
2007        16        18
2008        25        21

2.

Calculate the absolute value of the average
error. Use three significant digits after the
decimal.

5 points
Question 37

1. The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product.
Actual
Month
Demand
March        20
April        25
May          40
June         35
July         30
August       45

2.

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the
smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the
smoothed forecast for August.

5 points
Question 38

1. The following sales data are available for 2003-
2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average
forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1,
W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

5 points
Question 39

1. The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product
Actual
Month   Demand
March       20
April       25
May         40
June        35
July        30
August      45

2.

If the forecasted demand for June, July and
August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is
not in percentages. For example, 15% should be
written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after
the decimal.

5 points
Question 40
1. Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a
6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period
6. Use two places after the decimal.

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