manma18 by xuyuzhu

VIEWS: 15 PAGES: 16

									Question 1

             1. Deterministic techniques assume that no
                uncertainty exists in model parameters.


                Answer      True

                    False

                                                               5 points
Question 2

             1. A continuous random variable may assume only
                integer values within a given interval.


                Answer      True

                    False

                                                               5 points
Question 3

             1. A joint probability is the probability that two or
                more events that are mutually exclusive can
                occur simultaneously.


                Answer      True

                    False

                                                               5 points
Question 4

             1. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles
                decision nodes, square probability nodes, and
                branches.


                Answer      True

                    False

                                                               5 points
Question 5

             1. A table of random numbers must be normally
                distributed and efficiently generated.
                       Answer      True

                           False

                                                                     5 points
Question 6

                    1. Excel can only be used to simulate systems that
                       can be represented by continuous random
                       variables.


                       Answer      True

                           False

                                                                     5 points
Question 7

                    1. Qualitative methods are the least common type
                       of forecasting method for the long-term strategic
                       planning process.


                       Answer      True

                           False

                                                                     5 points
Question 8

                    1. Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical
                       patterns.


                       Answer      True

                           False

                                                                     5 points
Question 9

                    1. In Bayesian analysis, additional information is
                       used to alter the __________ probability of the
                       occurrence of an event.

                       Answer

         marginal
         conditional
         binomial
         revised
                                                                                    5 points
Question 10

                                     1. A company markets educational software
                                        products, and is ready to place three new
                                        products on the market. Past experience has
                                        shown that for this particular software, the
                                        chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the
                                        probability of success is independent for each
                                        product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of
                                        the 3 products is successful?

                                        Answer

         0.80
         0.032
         0.24
         0.096
                                                                                    5 points
Question 11

                                     1. The __________ is the expected value of the
                                        regret for each decision.

                                        Answer

         expected value
         expected opportunity loss
         expected value of perfect information
         none of the above
                                                                                    5 points
Question 12

                                     1. In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random
                                        variable are generated by __________ a
                                        probability distribution.

                                        Answer
         sampling from
         running
         integrating
         implementing
                                                                               5 points
Question 13

                                    1. A seed value is a(n)

                                           Answer

         steady state solution of a simulation experiment
         number used to start a stream of random numbers
         first run of a simulation model
         analytic solution of a simulation experiment
                                                                               5 points
Question 14

                                    1. Random numbers generated by a __________
                                       process instead of a __________ process are
                                       pseudorandom numbers.

                                           Answer

         physical / physical
         physical / mathematical
         mathematical / physical
         mathematical / mathematical
                                                                               5 points
Question 15

                                    1. Developing the cumulative probability
                                       distribution helps to determine

                                           Answer

         simulation numbers
         data sets
         random number ranges
         all of the above
Question 16

                                   1. Given the following data on the number of pints
                                      of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a
                                      6-period time frame:




                                        If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use
                                        exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a
                                        forecast for period 7.

                                        Answer

         273
         277
         267.8
         286.2
                                                                                   5 points
Question 17

                                   1. Consider the following demand and forecast.
       Period    Demand Forecast
         1          7     10
         2         12     15
         3         18     20
         4         22

                                   2.

                                        If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
                                   3.   Answer

         19
         20
         21
         none of the above
                                                                                  5 points
Question 18

                                   1. __________ is a measure of the strength of the
                                      relationship between independent and
                                      dependent variables.

                                        Answer

         Correlation
         Linear regression
         Coefficient of determination
         Regression
                                                                                  5 points
Question 19

                                   1. __________ is a category of statistical
                                      techniques that uses historical data to predict
                                      future behavior.

                                        Answer

         Qualitative methods
         Regression
         Time series
         Quantitative methods
                                                                                  5 points
Question 20

                                   1. __________ is a linear regression model relating
                                      demand to time.

                                        Answer

         Linear trend
         Linear regression
         Forecast demand
         Linear equation
                                                                                  5 points
Question 21
                                    1. Consider the following graph of sales.




                                       Which of the following characteristics is
                                       exhibited by the data?

                                       Answer

         Trend only
         Trend plus seasonal
         Cyclical only
         None of the above
                                                                                   5 points
Question 22

                                    1. Coefficient of determination is the percentage of
                                       the variation in the __________ variable that
                                       results from the __________ variable.

                                       Answer

         dependent, dependent
         independent, dependent
         dependent, independent
         independent, independent
                                                                                   5 points
Question 23

                                   1. __________ is absolute error as a percentage of
                                      demand.

                                        Answer

          Cumulative error
          MAD
          MAPD
          Average error
                                                                                    5 points
Question 24

                                   1. rob
                                      14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time
                                      limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S.
                                      Department of Agriculture estimates that the
                                      yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as
                                      follows:
      Yield, bushels
                     Probability
         per acre
           350          .10
           400          .18
           450          .50
           500          .22

                                   2.

                                        The estimated average price per bushel is
                                        $16.80.

                                        What is the expected yield of the crop?
                                   3.   Answer

          425
          442
          440
          475
                                                                                    5 points
Question 25
                                1. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer
                                   complaints received each week. The probability
                                   distribution for complaints can be represented as
                                   a table or a graph, both shown below. The
                                   random variable xi represents the number of
                                   complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of
                                   receiving xi complaints.
       xi      0     1     2     3        4     5     6
      p(xi)   .10   .15   .18   .20      .20   .10   .07

                                2.

                                      What is the average number of complaints
                                      received per week? Round your answer to two
                                      places after the decimal.
                                3.    Answer

                                                                                5 points
Question 26

                                1. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a
                                   mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5
                                   oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger
                                   than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places
                                   after the decimal.


                                      Answer

                                                                                5 points
Question 27

                                1. The drying rate in an industrial process is
                                   dependent on many factors and varies according
                                   to the following distribution.




                                      Compute the mean drying time. Use two places
                                      after the decimal.
                 Answer

                                                             5 points
Question 28

              1. An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs
                 and probabilities. Each person is limited to one
                 entry.




                 The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is
                 ________.


                 Answer

                                                             5 points
Question 29

              1. The local operations manager for the IRS must
                 decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary
                 workers. He estimates that net revenues will
                 vary with how well taxpayers comply with the
                 new tax code.




                 If he is conservative, how many new workers will
                 he hire?


                 Answer
                                                                               5 points
Question 30

                                  1. Consider the following decision tree.




What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole
number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.


                                     Answer

                                                                               5 points
Question 31

                                  1. Consider the following distribution and random
                                     numbers:
                 If a simulation begins with the first random
                 number, what would the first simulation value
                 would be __________.


                 Answer

                                                               5 points
Question 32

              1. Robert wants to know if there is a relation
                 between money spent on gambling and
                 winnings.




                 What is the coefficient of determination? Use
                 two significant places after the decimal.


                 Answer

                                                               5 points
Question 33

              1. This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
                            Use the equation of the regression line to
                            forecast the increased sales for when the
                            number of ads is 10.


                            Answer

                                                                         5 points
Question 34

                       1. Consider the following annual sales data for
                          2001-2008.
      Year     Sales
     2001     2
     2002     4
     2003     10
     2004     8
     2005     14
     2006     18
     2007     17
     2008     20

                       2.


                            Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four
                            significant digits after the decimal.
                       3.   Answer

                                                                         5 points
Question 35

                       1. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week
                          (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101,
                          96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today
                          using a weighted moving average, with weights
                          of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are
                          applied to the most recent data.


                            Answer

                                                                         5 points
Question 36
                            1. The following sales data are available for 2003-
                               2008 :
         Year       Sales    Forecast
         2003         7         9
         2004        12        10
         2005        14        15
         2006        20        22
         2007        16        18
         2008        25        21

                            2.

                                 Calculate the absolute value of the average
                                 error. Use three significant digits after the
                                 decimal.
                            3.   Answer

                                                                             5 points
Question 37

                            1. The following data summarizes the historical
                               demand for a product.
                 Actual
       Month
                Demand
     March        20
     April        25
     May          40
     June         35
     July         30
     August       45

                            2.

                                 Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the
                                 smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the
                                 smoothed forecast for August.
                            3.   Answer

                                                                             5 points
Question 38

                            1. The following sales data are available for 2003-
                               2008.
                              Determine a 4-year weighted moving average
                              forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1,
                              W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.


                              Answer

                                                                          5 points
Question 39

                         1. The following data summarizes the historical
                            demand for a product
                Actual
       Month   Demand
     March       20
     April       25
     May         40
     June        35
     July        30
     August      45

                         2.


                              If the forecasted demand for June, July and
                              August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is
                              MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and
                              not in percentages. For example, 15% should be
                              written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after
                              the decimal.
                         3.   Answer

                                                                          5 points
Question 40
1. Given the following data on the number of pints
   of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a
   6-period time frame:




   Compute a 3-period moving average for period
   6. Use two places after the decimal.

								
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