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ASIA Oil & Gas
Asia Oil & Gas
Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the
big deal?
Singapore GRM’s remain strong
Singapore GRM’s saw a small w/w improvement to $8.7/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w)
and remained near the top-end of the 5Y range; with strength in gasoline
($15.4/bbl, +$0.6/bbl w/w) and diesel cracks ($19.7/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w) more
than offsetting the decline in LPG cracks (-$23.5/bbl, -$1.7/bbl w/w). The
Inside strength was in-part driven by the $3.9/bbl decline in Brent prices during the
Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the big deal? 2
Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations 11 week (weak PMI in China, Europe; weak US jobs data).
Crude Oil Price & Differentials 13
Asia Refining Margins & Cracks 14
China Oil Demand, Production & Imports 16 China GRM’s – spot margins turn positive
China Gas Demand, Production & Imports 20 Chinese GRMs improved $1/bbl w/w to $8.5/bbl (3QTD average $3.4/bbl vs. -
Singapore Oil Product Inventories 21
US Oil Demand & Inventories 22 $2.5/bbl in 2Q). Of note, following the material $7.7/bbl decrease in Dubai crude
Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation 23 prices during the week, spot China GRMs are now $4.3/bbl (i.e. above the $4/bbl
Global Oil Supply-Demand 25 EBIT breakeven levels) – IF sustained, this would be a positive for Sinopec (see
China Gas Supply-Demand 26
Global LNG Supply-Demand 27
chart of the week below).
Asia Most Preferred CNOOC-Nexen – What’s the big deal?
CNOOC (OP, TP: HK$21.0) – MarQuee Buy List
Kunlun (OP, TP: HK$14.5) CNOOC’s July announcement of its planned US$17.9bn (EV) purchase of
PTTGC (OP, TP: Bt79.0) Canada’s Nexen is progressing through the approval process. Ultimately we
Inpex (OP, TP: Y720,000)
BPCL (OP, TP: Rs. 457.0) believe it is compelling enough for all the key stakeholders that it will go ahead,
essentially unaltered. It is certainly important for CNOOC; in one step it would
Asia Least Preferred add 22% and 35% to 2013E production and 2P reserves (propelling it past
Sinopec (N, TP: HK$7.1) Sinopec) and improve its oft-maligned reserve life (2P) to 18.3 years (+11%).
COSL (UP, TP: HK$10.4)
Petronet LNG (UP, TP: Rs.122.0) Our pro forma CNOOC-Nexen sum-of-the-parts valuation would stay almost
FCFC (UP, TP: NT$56.5) unchanged at HK$21.2/sh but Nexen’s contingent resource offers significant
value upside (blue-sky CNOOC-Nexen valuation of HK$31/sh). We raise our
target price by HK$1.5/sh to HK$21.0 and reiterate our Outperform rating.
Macquarie Capital Securities Limited Chart of the week: Spot GRMs now above EBIT breakeven
James Hubbard, CFA
+852 3922 1226 james.hubbard@macquarie.com ($/bbl)
MacQ China GRM
Aditya Suresh, CFA 12.0
+852 3922 1265 aditya.suresh@macquarie.com
Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited 8.0
Trevor Buchinski, CFA
+66 2 694 7829 trevor.buchinski@macquarie.com 4.0
Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Ltd
0.0
Jal Irani
+91 22 6720 4080 jal.irani@macquarie.com -4.0
Macquarie Capital Securities Limited, Taiwan
Branch -8.0
Corinne Jian, CFA
+886 2 2734 7522 corinne.jian@macquarie.com -12.0
May
Mar
Feb
Nov
Apr
Jan
Jun
Aug
Sep
Jul
Oct
Dec
Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited
Polina Diyachkina
+81 3 3512 7886 polina.diyachkina@macquarie.com 5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave 2011
Macquarie Securities Korea Limited 2012 Implied Fwd Margin EBIT Breakeven
Brandon I Lee
+82 2 3705 8669 brandon.lee3@macquarie.com Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012
Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our
website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Key Macquarie Research Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the big
Taiwan petchems – prolonged weak
end-demand (4 Sept) deal?
Asian Refining - Near-term trade; Brent declined by $3.9/bbl on average and ended the week at $112.3/bbl mainly on
medium-term played (24 Aug) weak PMI data in China and Europe - HSBC China manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8;
Markit Euro-area PMI dropped to 45.9 (cons. 46.6) in September (14th consecutive month
Offshore China – A glass still three-
below 50); and in US weekly jobless claims were higher than consensus expectations.
quarters full (30 Jul)
Singapore GRM’s saw a small w/w improvement to $8.7/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w) with
China Oils – Downstream Blues (03 Jul)
strength in gasoline ($15.4/bbl, +$0.6/bbl w/w) and diesel cracks ($19.7/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w)
Global Oil – A more gradual path to more than offsetting the decline in LPG cracks (-$23.5/bbl, -$1.7/bbl w/w).
$115/bbl (11 Jun)
Chinese GRMs improved $1/bbl w/w to $8.5/bbl (3QTD average $3.4/bbl vs. -$2.5/bbl
For those seeking defensive oil names in 2Q). Of note, following the material $7.7/bbl decrease in Dubai crude prices during the
(08 Jun) week, spot China GRMs are now $4.3/bbl (i.e. above the $4/bbl EBIT breakeven levels) –
if sustained, this would be a positive for Sinopec shares.
The Chinese NGV (R)Evolution (22 May)
In petchems, our benchmark NCC margin witnessed a big w/w increase (+18%) to end at
China Oil & Gas - “The Three Sisters”
$270/t; mainly driven by the 6% decline in Naphtha prices during the week (on lower crude
(21 Oct)
prices).
Fig 1 Asia Oils 1W Share Performance Fig 2 Asia Oils 2012 Share Performance
Asia Oils 1W Performance Asia Oils 2012 YTD Performance
BPCL 45%
Inpex Corp 6.7%
Caltex 34%
RIL 6.4%
GS Holdings 31%
JX Holdings 5.6%
Bangchak 30%
ONGC 4.1%
Aban Offshore 26%
Aban Offshore 4.0%
Kunlun 24%
Japan Petroleum 3.9%
RIL 23%
Petrochina 2.7%
Oil Search 21%
PTT E&P 2.6%
SK Innovation 19%
Cairn India 2.6%
HPCL 18%
Bangchak 2.5%
CNOOC 16%
NPC 2.1%
ONGC 15%
COSL 1.1%
Thai Oil 15%
PTT Global 0.8%
MSCI Asia (ex Japan) 13%
CNOOC 0.5%
Woodside 12%
PTT 0.3%
Cairn India 11%
FCFC 0.1%
COSL 9%
MSCI Asia (ex Japan) 0.0%
Jpn Petro 6%
GDG -0.6%
PTT 6%
Oil India -0.7%
Petronet LNG 6%
IOCL -0.7%
PTT Global 5%
Esso Thailand -0.9%
Petrochina 5%
FPC -1.5%
S-Oil 5%
Kunlun -1.7%
Brent 4%
Sinopec -1.8%
FPC 4%
Petronet LNG -2.0%
Esso Thailand 2%
Woodside -2.0%
Inpex Corp 1%
BPCL -2.1%
Oil India 1%
Oil Search -2.3%
IOCL 0%
Thai Oil -2.5%
FCFC -1%
HPCL -2.9%
NPC -2%
Santos -3.8%
Santos -6%
S-Oil -4.1%
PTT E&P -6%
SK Innovation -4.3%
JX Holdings -6%
Caltex -4.3%
Sinopec -12%
Brent -4.5%
GDG -49%
GS Holdings -4.6%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 2
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
What’s new in the region?
CNOOC – Nexen – What’s the big deal? (James Hubbard, 24 Sept): CNOOC’s (883 HK,
OP, TP: HK$21.0) July announcement of its planned US$17.9bn (EV) purchase of Canada’s
Nexen (NXY CN, N, TP: C$27.50, analyst Chris Feltin) is progressing through the approval
process. Ultimately we believe it is compelling enough for all the key stakeholders that it will
go ahead, essentially unaltered. It is certainly important for CNOOC; in one step it would add
22% and 35% to 2013E production and 2P reserves (propelling it past Sinopec) and improve
its oft-maligned reserve life (2P) to 18.3 years (+11%). Our pro forma CNOOC-Nexen sum-of-
the-parts valuation would stay almost unchanged at HK$21.2/sh but Nexen’s contingent
resource offers significant value upside (blue-sky CNOOC-Nexen valuation of HK$31/sh).
We raise our target price by HK$1.5/sh to HK$21.0 and reiterate our Outperform rating.
ONGC – Mumbai High-er (Jal Irani, 24 Sept): We took a group of institutional investors to
ONGC’s (ONGC IN, OP, TP: Rs. 325) Mumbai High field 3D virtual reality room/geological
centre, which oversees ~40% of India’s oil/gas production, and almost all of ONGC’s offshore
operations. We believe that through quick monetization of the recent large D-1 find and
developing marginal fields in the basin, ONGC is firmly poised to reverse its sliding oil output
starting as early as FY14E. Maintain Outperform.
Japan PowerGen Series – upstream oil and gas alert (Polina Diyachkina, 18 Sept): The
Japanese government has decided to promote a 'zero-nuclear' policy by 2030s; our base
case has been for 10% nuclear vs 25% pre quake. Most of nuclear will be replaced by gas-
fired power plants, but there is also scope for an increase in alternative energy and coal-fired
power plants. Clear beneficiaries of the zero-nuclear policy are LNG plays – Inpex and Mitsui.
On the capex front, LNG engineering companies Chiyoda and JGC as well as MHI, Toshiba
and Hitachi would also benefit from both overseas LNG projects and a build-up of domestic
gas and coal-fired power plants.
PTTEP – Capital issuance clarity approaching (Trevor Buchinski, 19 Sept): On August
23, PTTEP (PTTEP TB, N, TP: Bt 165.0) delayed a shareholder vote on a proposed
US$3.1bn capital issuance. PTTEPs board is expected to decide on a new structure over the
next 10 days. Our NAV analysis that suggests fair value for PTTEP is closer to Bt200/sh.
Nevertheless and against our base case expectation we believe parent company PTT offers a
better risk/reward proposition.
24 September 2012 3
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Asia Refining Summary
Fig 3 MacQ China GRM Fig 4 Singapore Complex GRM
($/bbl) ($/bbl)
MacQ China GRM Singapore Complex GRM
20.0 15
12.0 12
4.0 9
-4.0 6
-12.0 3
-20.0 0
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
MQ China GRM 5Y Range 5Y Ave Sing GRM 5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave
2011 2012 Fwd Margin 2011 2012
Fig 5 Korea Complex GRM Fig 6 China vs. S'pore GRM
($/bbl) ($/bbl)
Korea Complex GRM China vs. S'pore GRM
15 15
12 10
9
5
6
0
3
-5
0
-10
May-10
May-11
May-12
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
-3
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Korea GRM 5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave
Delta China GRM Singapore GRM
2011 2012
Fig 7 Asia Refining Margins Summary
Macquarie Research
Asia Refining Summary
Week Month Quarter Year
21-Sep 14-Sep 07-Sep 31-Aug Jul-12 Jul-11 Y-o-Y % 3Q12TD 2Q12 %chg 2012-TD 2011 %chg
Crude Price & Differentials
Brent ($/bbl) 111.9 115.8 114.1 113.8 103.1 116.5 -11% 109.6 108.6 1% 112.4 111.1 1%
Dubai ($/bbl) 109.7 113.8 111.9 110.1 99.2 110.0 -10% 105.8 106.0 0% 109.4 106.1 3%
WTI ($/bbl) 93.7 97.6 95.8 95.7 87.9 97.2 -10% 92.1 93.1 -1% 96.1 95.1 1%
Duri ($/bbl) 112.0 116.1 114.6 115.2 108.9 123.3 -12% 112.3 112.0 0% 116.3 116.2 0%
Cinta ($/bbl) 113.8 117.9 116.4 116.5 108.7 125.0 -13% 113.2 113.1 0% 117.1 117.3 0%
Duri - Brent ($/bbl) 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 5.7 6.8 -16% 2.7 3.4 -22% 3.9 5.1 -24%
Arab Light - Heavy ($/bbl) 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.4 4.1 -41% 2.5 3.2 -23% 2.8 4.1 -32%
Brent - WTI ($/bbl) 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 15.3 19.3 -21% 17.4 15.5 13% 16.3 16.0 1%
GRM
Macquarie China GRM ($/bbl) 8.5 7.5 5.5 5.6 (2.0) 0.2 NM 3.4 (2.5) NM 1.0 1.0 -2%
Macquarie China GRM (RMB/t) 410 361 268 272 (95) 8 NM 166 (122) NM 48 51 -7%
Singapore Complex GRM ($/bbl) 8.7 8.4 8.7 9.8 7.6 8.3 -9% 8.8 6.1 43% 7.5 7.6 -2%
Korea Complex GRM ($/bbl) 7.2 7.1 8.3 8.9 6.0 7.0 -15% 7.2 4.4 63% 5.9 6.8 -12%
China Refined Product Cracks
Gasoline ($/bbl) 15.7 14.1 9.8 10.0 (1.1) 2.1 NM 7.0 (2.3) NM 2.8 2.8 1%
Diesel ($/bbl) 27.3 25.7 20.2 20.4 8.9 12.5 -29% 17.4 9.1 91% 13.5 12.9 5%
Fuel Oil ($/bbl) (21.2) (23.0) (18.6) (18.8) (34.0) (32.6) -4% (24.4) (38.4) 57% (28.5) (27.8) -2%
Singapore Refined Product Cracks
Gasoline ($/bbl) 15.4 14.8 12.2 15.2 14.4 16.4 -12% 16.0 14.2 12% 14.8 13.8 8%
Naphtha ($/bbl) (6.5) (4.7) (3.7) (4.1) (8.4) (3.6) -57% (6.6) (8.8) 35% (6.6) (3.7) -44%
Diesel ($/bbl) 19.7 18.7 21.2 22.7 17.8 18.4 -3% 19.5 15.6 25% 17.2 18.4 -7%
Jet Fuel ($/bbl) 21.2 21.4 23.2 22.9 18.4 19.1 -4% 20.4 16.2 26% 17.4 19.5 -11%
LPG ($/bbl) (23.5) (21.8) (22.0) (27.6) (38.0) (40.9) 8% (31.5) (45.1) 43% (34.9) (36.9) 6%
Fuel Oil ($/bbl) (5.8) (6.7) (5.5) (5.2) (4.0) (5.1) 28% (5.0) (3.8) -24% (3.6) (5.2) 45%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Singapore GRM based on LPG 3%, Naphtha 7%, Gasoline 32%, Diesel 16%, Jet
19%, FO & Others 23%. China GRM based on - Diesel 0.30, Gasoline 0.20, Fuel Oil 0.09, LPG 0.02, Naphtha 0.02 using a regression analysis.
24 September 2012 4
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Asia Petchems Summary
Fig 8 NCC (Naphtha Cracking Center) margin – sharp
w/w pick-up assisted by fall in naphtha prices Fig 9 Ethylene-Naphtha spread
$/ton
NCC Margins $/ton Ethylene - Naphtha
500
900
450
400 750
350
600
300
250 450
200
300
150
100 150
50
0 0
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Ethylene-Naphtha Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
NCC Margin Range 2007-11 Avg
2011 2012 2011 2012
Fig 10 PP-Naphtha spread Fig 11 HDPE-Naphtha spread
$/ton PP - Naphtha $/ton HDPE - Naphtha
1200 900
800
1000
700
800 600
500
600
400
400 300
200
200
100
0
0
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
PP-Naphtha Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
HDPE-Naphtha Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
2011 2012
2011 2012
Fig 12 PX-Naphtha Fig 13 PVC-EDC spread
$/ton
$/ton PX-Naphtha PVC - EDC
1000
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
PX-Naphtha Range 2007-10 Avg PVC-EDC Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)
2011 2012 2011 2012
Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 5
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Fig 14 Asia Petchems Summary
Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 6
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Macro – from bad to a bit worse
Fig 16 China GDP estimates – 2012 on a downward
Fig 15 OECD LI trajectory
(Y-o-Y) Y-o-Y %
OECD LI China GDP
1.5% 9.0
1.0%
8.7
0.5%
8.4
0.0%
8.1
-0.5%
-1.0% 7.8
-1.5% 7.5
May-12
Mar-12
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
6
7
8
9
0
1
l-0
l-0
l-0
l-0
l-1
l-1
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
G7 Composite US China Eurozone 2012 2013
Fig 17 Unemployment rate – relatively stable Fig 18 Manufacturing PMI – China, US, Euro in
contraction mode
%
Unemployment Rate Manufacturing PMI
6.0 70
5.5
60
5.0
4.5 50
4.0
40
3.5
3.0 30
2.5
20
2.0
Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul-
07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
06
07
08
09
10
11
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
-1
-1
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
US China Eurozone
China Korea Japan
Fig 20 China Industrial Production – remains at c.9%
Fig 19 China PMI breakdown for a fourth consecutive month (avg. 15% 2005-11)
% (Y-o-Y)
China PMI China Industrial Production
65 25
60
20
55
50 15
45
10
40
35 5
Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul-
07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12
0
New Export Orders Finished Goods Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-
Raw Materials 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12
Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 7
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Fig 21 China consumer confidence index Fig 22 China real estate climate index
China consumer confidence index China Real Estate Climate Index
110
115.0
108
110.0 106
104
105.0 102
100
100.0
98
95.0 96
94
90.0
92
85.0 90
Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul-
07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12
Fig 24 Taiwan computers and electronics
Fig 23 China textile production manufacturing index
Y-o-Y %
China Textile Production Index Taiwan Computers & Electronics
30.0
(2006=100) Manufacturing Index
25.0 180
20.0 160
140
15.0
120
10.0
100
5.0
80
0.0
60
-5.0 40
-10.0 20
Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul-
0
10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12
Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul-
Yarn Cloth Garment Polyester 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12
Fig 25 China passenger car sales Fig 26 China tyre output
mn mn
China Passenger Car Sales China Tyre Output
1.8 90.0
1.6 80.0
1.4 70.0
1.2 60.0
1.0 50.0
0.8 40.0
0.6 30.0
0.4 20.0
0.2 10.0
0.0 0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
7Y Range Avg (2005-11)
7Y Range Avg (2005-11) 2011 2012
2010 2011 2012
Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 8
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Oil – Commitment of Traders (COT) Summary
Fig 27 Fund Net Positions vs. Oil Price Fig 28 Hedge Net Positions vs. Oil Price
(klots) Fund Net Positions vs. Oil Price ($/bbl) (klots) Hedge Net Positions vs. Oil Price WTI $/bbl
400 160 100 120
350 140
300 0 100
120
250
-100 80
200 100
150 80 -200 60
100 60
50 -300 40
40
0
-400 20
-50 20
-100 0 -500 0
May-10
May-11
May-12
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Speculators (LHS) Oil Price (RHS) Hedge Net Positions (LHS) WTI (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Fund Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Hedge
category covers large speculators or CFTC’s “non-commercial positions” category covers oil industry traders or CFTC’s “commercial positions”
Fig 29 Small Speculators Net Positions vs. Oil Price Fig 30 Open Interest (futures + options) vs. Oil Price
Small Speculators Net Positions vs. Oil Price Open Interest
3,500 WTI $/bbl 160
WTI ($/bbl)
90Speculators Net 175 (klots)
3,000 140
Position (klots)
60 140 120
2,500
100
30 105 2,000
80
1,500
0 70 60
1,000
40
-30 35
500 20
-60 0 0 0
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Speculators (Net Position) WTI (RHS) Open Interest WTI (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Fund Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
category covers small speculators or CFTC’s “non-reportable positions”
24 September 2012 9
30 January 2012
Macquarie Research
Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations
Fig 31 Asia Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation
Macquarie Research
Asia Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics 21 September 12
Market
Company Local Price Mcap Reco. Target Upside EV/EBITDA Ratio P/E Ratio P/B Ratio Dividend Yield FCF Yield ROACE Gearing
Curr (local) (US$ bn) Price 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E
HANG SENG INDEX 20,626 1,551 10.1 x 9.1 x
PetroChina HKD 10.0 240.3 Outperform 12.0 +19.8% 5.3 x 5.0 x 10.8 x 8.7 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 3.9% 4.8% -8.9% 4.3% 10.2% 10.6% 27.0% 26.0%
Sinopec HKD 7.1 80.3 Neutral 7.1 +0.6% 4.1 x 3.2 x 9.2 x 6.5 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 2.7% 3.8% -9.0% 4.8% 9.5% 11.7% 28.1% 26.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.7 90.6 Outperform 21.0 +33.4% 4.4 x 4.1 x 8.0 x 7.6 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 2.0% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 20.4% 18.3% 8.6% 5.5%
COSL HKD 13.4 7.8 Underperform 10.4 -22.5% 7.4 x 6.9 x 10.1 x 9.1 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 1.7% 2.1% 4.9% 8.9% 9.1% 9.4% 36.3% 29.3%
Kunlun Energy HKD 13.6 14.2 Outperform 14.5 +6.6% 6.5 x 6.0 x 14.9 x 13.5 x 3.2 x 2.6 x 1.7% 1.8% -7.1% 2.3% 14.4% 14.4% 14.0% 10.1%
Anton HKD 1.9 0.5 Not Rated NM NM 8.9 x 7.0 x 15.7 x 11.2 x
ASX INDEX 4,381.1 1,139.6 11.7 x 10.8 x
Woodside AUD 33.8 29.5 Neutral 37.5 +11.0% 8.2 x 7.1 x 16.5 x 15.5 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.7% 4.1% 5.5% 10.0% 9.8% 10.1% 12.4% 5.6%
Santos AUD 11.4 11.5 Outperform 16.00 +40.8% 5.6 x 4.8 x 20.2 x 17.8 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 2.6% 2.6% -18.4% -18.4% 5.2% 5.3% 8.8% 24.9%
Oil Search AUD 7.4 10.6 Outperform 9.0 +21.5% 23.7 x 24.7 x 76.2 x 73.2 x 3.3 x 3.2 x 0.5% 0.5% -5.1% 1.2% 2.7% 2.4% 43.4% 45.5%
Caltex AUD 15.5 4.4 Neutral 16.0 +3.1% 7.3 x 6.2 x 12.6 x 10.9 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 2.0% 2.5% -0.4% 1.8% 13.5% 14.1% 29.3% 26.5%
BSE SENSEX INDEX 18,752.8 581.0 13.1 x 11.9 x
RIL INR 850.3 51.4 Neutral 759.0 -10.7% 7.9 x 7.5 x 11.8 x 11.7 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 1.1% 1.1% 18.1% 1.5% 9.7% 9.3% 19.8% 16.2%
ONGC INR 294.5 46.9 Outperform 325.0 +10.4% 3.8 x 4.4 x 9.5 x 9.6 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.3% 3.4% 6.2% 5.7% 19.9% 18.5% -16.2% -18.1%
IOCL INR 252.7 11.5 Outperform 333.0 +31.8% 4.6 x 5.3 x 5.2 x 8.1 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 2.3% 1.5% 21.6% 27.0% 15.4% 9.6% 41.0% 29.7%
Cairn India INR 349.7 12.5 Neutral 322.0 -7.9% 6.3 x 5.5 x 8.7 x 8.5 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 0.0% 2.6% 3.6% 4.6% 16.4% 14.7% -11.9% -20.7%
BPCL INR 347.3 2.3 Outperform 457.0 +31.6% 12.4 x 7.9 x 30.3 x 12.1 x 1.6 x 1.6 x 1.9% 2.1% -59.7% -34.7% 6.9% 9.8% 65.0% 66.0%
HPCL INR 299.0 1.9 Outperform 412.0 +37.8% 10.9 x 6.4 x 69.1 x 6.5 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 3.3% 5.2% -51.7% 14.9% 5.5% 10.7% 72.7% 70.1%
Petronet LNG INR 165.1 2.3 Underperform 122.0 -26.1% 9.0 x 8.3 x 11.5 x 11.3 x 3.4 x 2.7 x 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% -23.8% 19.8% 16.7% 36.8% 52.7%
Aban Offshore INR 430.4 0.3 Underperform 315.0 -26.8% 7.3 x 5.7 x 7.2 x 6.2 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.8% 0.8% 20.2% 28.3% 8.3% 9.5% 83.5% 81.3%
SET INDEX 1,286.3 340.3 11.7 x 10.4 x
PTT THB 337.0 31.3 Outperform 409.0 +21.4% 4.3 x 3.7 x 7.5 x 6.4 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 4.5% 5.3% 5.4% 8.3% 15.7% 16.7% 26.1% 21.8%
PTT E&P THB 158.0 17.0 Neutral 165.0 +4.4% 4.2 x 3.5 x 9.7 x 8.5 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 3.6% 3.9% -0.4% 4.2% 16.9% 17.6% 25.5% 22.7%
PTT Global Chem THB 64.3 9.4 Outperform 79.0 +23.0% 6.8 x 6.3 x 8.2 x 8.1 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 4.2% 4.7% 5.3% 9.4% 11.9% 11.9% 29.8% 26.1%
Thai Oil THB 67.0 4.4 Neutral 66.0 -1.5% 7.5 x 6.1 x 12.3 x 9.0 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 3.6% 5.0% 8.0% 8.1% 9.9% 12.2% 18.6% 14.2%
Bangchak Petro. THB 24.6 1.1 Underperform 18.1 -26.4% 4.6 x 4.5 x 6.6 x 7.7 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 4.2% 4.9% 13.7% -10.8% 12.6% 11.4% 6.4% 22.7%
NIKKEI INDEX 9,033.3 2,217.0 12.7 x 10.6 x
Inpex Corp JPY 479,000.0 22.3 Outperform 720,000.0 +50.3% 2.0 x 2.1 x 18.6 x 10.1 x 0.7 x 0.9 x 1.4% 1.4% -2.0% -1.4% 5.0% 8.2% 1.6% 10.1%
JX Holdings JPY 433.0 13.9 Outperform 600.0 +38.6% 4.1 x 5.4 x 4.5 x 10.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% -13.5% 8.0% 3.9% 40.4% 43.1%
Japan Petro. Expln JPY 3,165.0 2.3 Outperform 4,600.0 +45.3% 4.4 x 4.9 x 10.3 x 11.3 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 1.3% 1.3% 7.3% -12.3% 4.1% 3.7% -0.9% 4.8%
TWSE Index 7,722.9 723.3 14.1 x 12.4 x
FPCC TWD 87.5 28.7 Underperform 65.0 -25.7% 26.2 x 16.8 x 250.3 x 44.9 x 3.8 x 3.6 x 0.5% 1.9% 3.0% 2.7% 1.6% 5.3% 42.0% 37.2%
FPC TWD 82.8 17.5 Neutral 68.5 -17.3% 17.2 x 15.0 x 28.7 x 21.6 x 2.1 x 2.0 x 2.5% 3.1% 5.1% 2.7% 5.9% 7.6% 4.3% 5.8%
NPC TWD 57.6 15.7 Neutral 50.0 -13.2% 28.5 x 14.9 x 56.0 x 19.3 x 1.7 x 1.6 x 1.2% 3.5% 5.1% 4.2% 2.6% 6.5% 20.5% 17.5%
FCFC TWD 77.7 15.3 Underperform 56.5 -27.3% 19.3 x 13.3 x 38.2 x 20.0 x 1.8 x 1.7 x 1.7% 3.3% 2.9% 4.6% 3.8% 6.6% 14.0% 11.3%
KOSPI INDEX 1,981.8 1,002.5 9.3 x 8.1 x
SK Innovation KRW 164,000.0 13.9 Outperform 222,000.0 +35.4% 6.9 x 6.5 x 10.2 x 7.6 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 1.7% 1.7% 6.3% 3.7% 7.6% 8.9% 19.6% 14.9%
S-Oil KRW 103,000.0 10.6 Neutral 105,000.0 +1.9% 9.8 x 7.7 x 13.0 x 8.8 x 2.2 x 1.9 x 2.8% 4.3% 9.7% 14.1% 10.6% 14.5% 28.7% 14.6%
GS Holdings KRW 65,000.0 5.5 Neutral 67,000.0 +3.1% 6.0 x 4.8 x 9.3 x 7.4 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 2.1% 2.2% 13.1% 10.6% 8.3% 9.3% 14.6% 4.8%
Honam KRW 255,000.0 7.5 Outperform 320,000.0 +25.5% 8.0 x 5.0 x 16.7 x 8.7 x 1.4 x 1.2 x 0.7% 0.7% -3.7% 6.6% 7.0% 12.2% 11.2% 4.1%
LG Chem KRW 323,000.0 19.5 Outperform 400,000.0 +23.8% 8.0 x 6.6 x 14.0 x 11.1 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 1.2% 1.2% 2.8% 0.4% 13.1% 14.5% 6.9% 7.1%
Hanwha Chem KRW 21,850.0 2.8 Neutral 20,000.0 -8.5% 11.5 x 7.6 x 21.9 x 8.9 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 2.0% 2.0% -18.4% -9.3% 2.8% 5.3% 49.6% 49.0%
HK/China 433.7 +17.9% 5.0 x 4.6 x 10.1 x 8.2 x 1.4 x 1.2 x 3.1% 4.1% -6.0% 4.3% 12.3% 12.5% 23.1% 21.3%
Australia 56.0 +18.5% 10.5 x 9.9 x 28.2 x 26.5 x 2.1 x 2.0 x 2.8% 3.0% -1.9% 1.9% 7.8% 8.0% 18.8% 18.7%
India 129.1 +2.1% 6.1 x 6.0 x 11.3 x 10.2 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 2.0% 2.2% 10.0% 4.8% 14.6% 13.4% 7.6% 3.9%
Thailand 63.2 +14.6% 4.9 x 4.2 x 8.5 x 7.4 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 4.1% 4.8% 4.1% 7.0% 15.0% 15.8% 25.6% 22.1%
Japan 38.5 +45.8% 2.9 x 3.4 x 13.0 x 10.4 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% -6.4% 6.0% 6.4% 15.4% 21.6%
Asia Oil & Gas
Taiwan 77.2 -21.6% 23.3 x 15.3 x 118.5 x 29.4 x 2.6 x 2.5 x 1.3% 2.8% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 6.4% 23.5% 20.9%
Korea 30.0 +17.7% 8.1 x 6.5 x 13.2 x 9.1 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 1.7% 1.9% 4.0% 4.9% 9.7% 12.0% 17.0% 11.6%
APAC 827.7 +12.8% 7.3 x 6.1 x 21.7 x 11.8 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 2.7% 3.5% -0.8% 3.9% 11.3% 11.7% 20.1% 18.1%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
10
30 January 2012
Macquarie Research
Fig 32 Asia Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus
Macquarie Research
Asia Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics 21 September 12
Company Local Price Target Upside Absolute Performance EPS (local) EPS growth Cons EPS (local) Macq. vs. Cons Cons. Macq. vs.
Curr (local) Price 1M 3M 6M 1Y YTD 2011A 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E TP Cons.
HANG SENG INDEX +3.2% +7.6% -0.6% +10.2% +12.5%
PetroChina HKD 10.02 12.0 +19.8% +3.2% -2.7% -8.8% +7.7% +5.3% 0.73 0.71 0.88 -2.1% +23.7% 0.75 0.83 -5.3% +6.2% 11.4 5.5%
Sinopec HKD 7.06 7.1 +0.6% -3.2% +2.6% -16.7% -5.2% -12.1% 0.85 0.62 0.88 -26.6% +41.3% 0.69 0.86 -9.4% +2.8% 8.1 -12.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.74 21.0 +33.4% +4.2% +5.1% -5.9% +21.5% +15.9% 1.57 1.49 1.58 -5.1% +6.0% 1.45 1.44 +3.1% +9.8% 17.2 21.8%
COSL HKD 13.42 10.4 -22.5% +6.0% +20.9% +16.5% +32.7% +9.3% 0.90 1.05 1.16 +16.9% +10.8% 1.03 1.17 +1.7% -0.1% 14.5 -28.5%
Kunlun Energy HKD 13.60 14.5 +6.6% +4.9% +8.2% -1.4% +23.4% +23.9% 0.78 0.91 1.01 +16.6% +10.4% 0.90 1.06 +1.2% -5.1% 16.0 -9.5%
Anton HKD 1.86 NM NM +18.8% +63.8% +91.9% +134.6% +120.9% 0.10 0.14 2.2
ASX INDEX +0.6% +7.8% +3.6% +8.3% +8.7%
Woodside AUD 33.78 37.5 +11.0% -5.1% +6.5% -2.1% +1.4% +11.5% 2.09 2.20 2.35 +5.7% +6.6% 2.52 2.66 -12.4% -11.6% 39.0 -3.9%
Santos AUD 11.36 16.00 +40.8% -4.7% -0.7% -20.1% +0.0% -6.1% 0.50 0.58 0.69 +14.0% +19.5% 0.61 0.59 -5.8% +16.4% 15.0 6.4%
Oil Search AUD 7.41 9.0 +21.5% +5.7% +14.9% +9.4% +26.2% +21.1% 0.18 0.10 0.11 -41.3% +4.7% 0.13 0.12 -17.9% -11.3% 8.7 3.1%
Caltex AUD 15.52 16.0 +3.1% +1.3% +19.5% +12.5% +47.3% +33.6% 0.98 1.29 1.55 +32.3% +19.5% 1.35 1.35 -4.0% +15.0% 14.9 7.3%
BSE SENSEX INDEX +4.9% +10.1% +6.5% +9.9% +21.3%
RIL INR 850.30 759.0 -10.7% +4.4% +18.3% +10.7% +1.5% +22.7% 73.80 66.75 67.54 -9.6% +1.2% 62.29 67.07 +7.2% +0.7% 798.2 -4.9%
ONGC INR 294.50 325.0 +10.4% +2.6% +7.0% +8.5% +12.8% +14.8% 10.31 29.22 29.61 NM +1.3% 30.65 33.03 -4.7% -10.4% 312.2 4.1%
IOCL INR 252.70 333.0 +31.8% +0.3% -3.5% -6.6% -18.0% -0.4% 32.25 49.15 31.29 +52.4% -36.3% 29.31 33.25 +67.7% -5.9% 294.3 13.2%
Cairn India INR 349.65 322.0 -7.9% +5.4% +7.2% -2.0% +17.3% +11.3% 33.04 39.13 40.24 +18.4% +2.8% 54.48 50.34 -28.2% -20.1% 373.2 -13.7%
BPCL INR 347.30 457.0 +31.6% +2.5% -9.0% -0.1% +4.7% +45.4% 22.61 11.53 28.94 -49.0% NM 20.26 24.85 -43.1% +16.4% 392.7 16.4%
HPCL INR 299.00 412.0 +37.8% -4.2% -11.0% +0.6% -19.2% +18.2% 51.22 4.50 47.53 -91.2% NM 32.19 43.04 -86.0% +10.4% 346.9 18.8%
Petronet LNG INR 165.10 122.0 -26.1% +10.0% +21.2% +2.2% -7.2% +6.0% 8.26 14.10 14.24 +70.7% +1.0% 14.08 15.13 +0.1% -5.9% 173.7 -29.8%
Aban Offshore INR 430.40 315.0 -26.8% +1.5% +22.0% -8.4% +10.2% +25.6% 107.26 58.52 68.58 -45.4% +17.2% 81.94 85.54 -28.6% -19.8% 447.0 -29.5%
SET INDEX +4.4% +11.0% +6.5% +24.9% +25.4%
PTT THB 337.00 409.0 +21.4% -1.2% +5.0% -4.8% +8.0% +6.0% 36.86 43.68 51.47 +18.5% +17.8% 38.82 43.79 +12.5% +17.5% 378.0 8.2%
PTT E&P THB 158.00 165.0 +4.4% +3.6% -6.5% -11.2% -2.8% -6.2% 13.63 15.54 17.62 +14.0% +13.4% 15.93 17.96 -2.4% -1.9% 171.6 -3.8%
PTT Global Chem THB 64.25 79.0 +23.0% +0.0% +14.2% -11.4% +19.0% +5.3% 4.05 7.41 7.57 NM +2.2% 6.39 7.27 +16.0% +4.2% 71.1 11.1%
Thai Oil THB 67.00 66.0 -1.5% -0.4% +13.6% -7.6% +11.2% +14.5% 7.45 5.44 7.41 -27.0% +36.2% 7.40 6.59 -26.4% +12.5% 69.1 -4.5%
Bangchak Petro. THB 24.60 18.1 -26.4% +7.0% +5.1% +5.6% +20.6% +30.2% 5.40 3.54 3.02 -34.4% -14.7% 2.68 3.33 +32.1% -9.2% 24.4 -25.9%
NIKKEI INDEX -0.5% +3.2% -9.7% +4.2% +7.7%
Inpex Corp JPY 479,000 720,000 +50.3% +2.1% +5.3% -13.2% -3.8% +0.7% 37,355 23,971 43,979 -35.8% +83.5% 48,497 42,135 -50.6% +4.4% 709,273 1.5%
JX Holdings JPY 433.00 600.0 +38.6% +5.8% +5.3% -16.8% -4.6% -6.5% 127.50 89.70 38.16 -29.6% -57.5% 43.15 64.54 NM -40.9% 533.8 12.4%
Japan Petro. Expln JPY 3,165.00 4,600.0 +45.3% -0.2% +2.9% -18.5% +3.9% +6.1% 248.07 292.49 264.31 +17.9% -9.6% 286.22 290.00 +2.2% -8.9% 4,121.4 11.6%
TWSE Index +3.3% +6.5% -2.8% +2.9% +9.7%
FPCC TWD 87.50 65.0 -25.7% -2.6% +6.9% -5.1% +4.3% -5.9% 2.00 0.34 1.87 -83.2% NM 1.43 3.39 -76.6% -44.8% 72.4 -10.3%
FPC TWD 82.80 68.5 -17.3% -0.5% +4.9% -3.9% +1.5% +3.6% 5.73 2.85 3.80 -50.2% +33.2% 3.94 5.50 -27.5% -30.9% 79.8 -14.1%
NPC TWD 57.60 50.0 -13.2% -0.5% +4.6% -10.4% -14.2% -2.3% 2.87 0.98 2.85 -65.8% NM 1.87 3.40 -47.6% -16.3% 54.9 -9.0%
FCFC TWD 77.70 56.5 -27.3% -3.7% -0.8% -6.6% -4.1% -1.1% 5.68 1.99 3.80 -64.9% +90.9% 3.32 5.25 -40.0% -27.6% 76.4 -26.0%
KOSPI INDEX +3.0% +6.0% -1.2% +8.0% +9.7%
SK Innovation KRW 164,000 222,000 +35.4% +0.0% +16.6% -1.5% -0.9% +18.7% 33,778 16,521 22,020 -51.1% +33.3% 18,077 21,169 -8.6% +4.0% 195,900 13.3%
S-Oil KRW 103,000 105,000 +1.9% -2.8% +12.2% -11.0% -13.9% +5.0% 10,158 8,090 11,971 -20.4% +48.0% 8,794 11,392 -8.0% +5.1% 119,552 -12.2%
GS Holdings KRW 65,000 67,000 +3.1% +2.2% +20.1% +2.3% -6.6% +30.6% 8,143 7,210 9,150 -11.5% +26.9% 6,774 8,384 +6.4% +9.1% 73,970 -9.4%
Honam KRW 255,000 320,000 +25.5% +2.9% +11.2% -16.1% -28.5% -11.9% 31,081 14,602 28,107 -53.0% +92.5% 24,155 35,269 -39.5% -20.3% 296,586 7.9%
LG Chem KRW 323,000 400,000 +23.8% +3.1% +14.2% -10.5% -6.3% +3.8% 28,512 21,971 27,692 -22.9% +26.0% 26,688 33,405 -17.7% -17.1% 383,185 4.4%
Hanwha Chem KRW 21,850 20,000 -8.5% +3.2% +6.4% -15.3% -27.7% -8.5% 1,789 936 2,298 -47.7% NM 1,816 1,720 -48.5% +33.6% 21,529 -7.1%
HK/China +17.9% +2.4% +0.8% -8.8% +9.3% +5.1% -6.3% +22.6% -4.0% +5.9% +4.5%
Australia +18.5% -2.5% +7.6% -2.5% +9.4% +11.5% +0.6% +9.9% -11.4% -3.7% +0.4%
India +2.1% +3.4% +10.3% +6.6% +5.0% +16.7% +1.5% -1.9% +2.3% -5.7% -0.7%
Thailand +14.6% +0.5% +3.9% -7.5% +7.2% +3.6% +10.4% +15.0% +6.6% +9.5% +3.9%
Japan +45.8% +3.3% +5.2% -14.8% -3.6% -1.5% -30.3% +27.0% -29.1% -12.7% +6.1%
Taiwan -21.6% -1.9% +4.5% -6.2% -1.8% -2.1% -68.6% +25.6% -52.3% -32.4% -14.0%
Korea +19.4% +1.2% +14.2% -8.2% -10.2% +7.4% -32.9% +38.8% -15.8% -3.9% +2.2%
APAC +12.9% +1.7% +4.0% -5.9% +6.1% +6.3% -11.2% +18.4% -8.8% -1.1% +1.6%
Asia Oil & Gas
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
11
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Crude Oil Price & Differentials
Fig 33 Global crude benchmarks Fig 34 Crude Differentials
$/bbl $/bbl
China Crude Basket Crude differentials
140 30
25
125
20
110
15
95 10
5
80
0
65
-5
50 -10
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Brent Dubai Cinta WTI China Crude Basket Brent-Urals Duri-Brent Arab Light-Heavy Brent-WTI
Fig 35 Brent forward curve at c.$95-100/bbl long-term Fig 36 Crude price summary
21- 14- 3Q12T Q/Q
2Q12
($/bbl) Sept Sept D %chg
Brent Forward Curve
150.0 Brent ($/bbl) 111.9 115.8 109.6 108.6 1%
125.0 Dubai ($/bbl) 109.7 113.8 105.8 106.0 0%
100.0 WTI ($/bbl) 93.7 97.6 92.1 93.1 -1%
75.0
Duri ($/bbl) 112.0 116.1 112.3 112.0 0%
50.0
Minas ($/bbl) 113.8 117.9 113.2 113.1 0%
25.0
Duri - Brent ($/bbl) 0.1 0.2 2.7 3.4 -22%
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Arab Light - Heavy
2.8 2.8 2.5 3.2 -23%
($/bbl)
Spot T-1 month
T-3 months T-1 year Brent - WTI ($/bbl) 18.2 18.2 17.4 15.5 13%
At 2008 peak ($145/bbl) At 2008 trough ($35/bbl)
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012.
24 September 2012 12
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Asia Refining Margins & Cracks
Fig 37 China GRM’s – underlying spot margins turn
above EBIT breakeven Fig 38 MacQ China GRM vs. Sinopec GRM
($/bbl) Rmb/t
MacQ China GRM MacQ China GRM vs Sinopec Reported
20.0 800
12.0 400
4.0 0
-4.0 -400
-12.0 -800
-1200
-20.0
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
MQ China GRM 5Y Range 5Y Ave
MQ China GRM Sinopec Reported GRM
2011 2012 Fwd Margin
Fig 39 China regulated ex-factory product price vs.
Dubai Fig 40 Diesel Price: China ex-factory vs. Singapore
$/bbl
Crude vs Regulated Pdt Price China (ex-factory) vs S'pore Diesel Prices
150
$/bbl
150
120
130
110
90
90
60 70
50
30 30
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil Dubai Crude China Diesel S'pore Diesel (FOB)
Fig 41 China vs. S’pore gasoline price Fig 42 China fuel oil well below Singapore
$/bbl $/bbl
China vs S'pore Gasoline Prices
150 140 China vs S'pore Fuel Oil Prices
130 120
100
110
80
90
60
70
40
50
20
30
0
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
China Gasoline S'pore Gasoline (FOB) China Fuel Oil S'pore Fuel Oil (FOB)
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 13
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Fig 43 China product cracks Fig 44 Singapore product cracks
$/bbl $/bbl
China Product Cracks Singapore Product Cracks
50 40
30
30
20
10
10
0
-10 -10
-20
-30 -30
-40
-50 -50
-60
-70
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
LPG Naphtha Gasoline
Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil Diesel Jet/Kero Fuel Oil
Fig 45 Singapore complex GRM – robust and at the
top end of the 5Y range Fig 46 China vs. Singapore GRM
($/bbl) ($/bbl)
Singapore Complex GRM China vs. S'pore GRM
15 15
12 10
5
9
0
6
-5
3
-10
May-10
May-11
May-12
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
0
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Sing GRM 5Y Range (07-11) 5Y Ave
Delta China GRM Singapore GRM
2011 2012
Fig 47 Asia refinery maintenance Fig 48 Major Asia CDU additions in 2012
Capacity
Company Refinery Type Location Timing
(kb/d) (kb/d)
Asia Refinery Maintenance
3000 Essar Oil CDU expansion Vadinar 80 2Q12
2500 MRPL CDU expansion Mangalore 64 3Q12
Grassroots
2000 HPCL Bhatinda 180 2Q12
refinery
Hohhot,Inner
1500 PetroChina CDU expansion 100 3Q12
Mongolia
1000 Sinopec CDU expansion Anqing 80 4Q12
Grassroots
Sinopec Jinling 160 4Q12
500 refinery
2012 Total 664
0
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Range 2010 2011 2012
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 14
24 September 2012
Macquarie Research
China Oil Demand, Production & Imports
Fig 49 China Macro Summary
Macquarie Research
China Crude & Refined Products Summary
Month Quarter Year
Jul-12 Jun-12 M-o-M % Jul-11 Y-o-Y % 2Q12 1Q12 %chg 2011 2010 %chg
Apparent Consumption (kb/d)
Crude 9,520 9,086 5% 9,000 6% 9,645 9,806 -2% 9,196 8,918 3%
Total Products 9,837 9,011 9% 9,676 1.7% 9,473 9,979 -5% 9,580 9,005 6%
Gasoline 2,075 1,841 13% 1,770 17% 1,901 1,914 -1% 1,792 1,665 8%
Diesel 3,337 3,145 6% 3,394 -2% 3,314 3,438 -4% 3,342 3,113 7%
Kerosene 422 334 27% 341 24% 353 379 -7% 364 349 4%
Fuel Oil 599 544 10% 551 9% 580 650 -11% 604 619 -2%
Lubricants 222 227 -2% 209 7% 242 240 1% 235 232 2%
Naphtha 661 615 8% 588 13% 673 718 -6% 601 611 -2%
LPG 778 767 1% 763 2% 731 739 -1% 745 702 6%
Petcoke 899 824 9% 724 24% 814 781 4% 728 716 2%
Natural Gas (bcm) 11.3 11.1 2% 10.8 5% 33.6 41.0 -18% 128.9 105.9 22%
Production (kb/d)
Crude 4,194 3,933 7% 4,261 -2% 4,085 4,144 -1% 4,128 4,131 0%
Total Products 9,503 8,800 8% 9,474 0% 9,175 9,583 -4% 9,273 8,797 5%
Gasoline 2,112 1,913 10% 1,856 14% 1,951 2,009 -3% 1,886 1,785 6%
Diesel 3,372 3,139 7% 3,400 -1% 3,314 3,433 -3% 3,334 3,170 5%
Kerosene 415 386 8% 395 5% 403 409 -2% 373 341 9%
Fuel Oil 341 322 6% 319 7% 312 317 -2% 342 381 -10%
Lubricants 191 191 0% 177 8% 200 198 1% 194 190 2%
Naphtha 598 591 1% 549 9% 638 639 0% 556 565 -2%
LPG 692 672 3% 699 -1% 677 716 -5% 695 656 6%
Petcoke 712 684 4% 654 9% 695 650 7% 640 614 4%
Natural Gas (bcm) 8.3 8.2 1% 8.4 -1% 25.0 33.2 -25% 103.3 93.6 10%
Net Imports (kb/d)
Crude 5,326 5,153 3% 4,738 12% 5,560 5,663 -2% 5,067 4,786 6%
Total Products 334 210 59% 202 65% 298 396 -25% 308 207 48%
Gasoline (36) (72) NM (86) NM (49) (96) 94% (94) (121) 29%
Diesel (35) 6 NM (5) -85% 0 5 -98% 8 (57) NM
Kerosene 7 (52) NM (54) NM (49) (29) -40% (9) 8 NM
Fuel Oil 258 222 17% 232 11% 268 332 -19% 262 238 10%
Lubricants 31 35 -12% 32 -1% 43 42 3% 41 42 -1%
Naphtha 64 24 NM 39 NM 34 79 -57% 44 46 -4%
LPG 86 94 -9% 64 33% 54 23 NM 50 46 8%
Petcoke 187 139 34% 70 NM 119 131 -9% 88 103 -14%
LNG (bcm) 1.8 1.6 10% 1.6 13% 4.6 4.4 4% 16.6 12.7 31%
Asia Oil & Gas
Pipe Gas (bcm) 1.3 1.3 0% 0.8 56% 4.0 3.3 21% 8.9 (0.4) NM
Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: apparent consumption = production + net imports
15
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Fig 50 China apparent consumption y/y% Fig 51 China apparent oil product demand – flat y/y
Y-o-Y % (kb/d)
Apparent Consumption Total Pdts Consumption
20% 11,500
15%
10,000
10%
5% 8,500
0%
7,000
-5%
-10% 5,500
-15%
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
4,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5Y Range 5Y Ave
Crude Refined Products 2010 2011 2012
Fig 52 China crude oil production y/y% Fig 53 China crude oil production – near 2011 levels
Y-o-Y % (kb/d)
Indigenous Production Crude Production
20% 4,950
15%
4,600
10%
5% 4,250
0%
3,900
-5%
-10% 3,550
-15%
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
3,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5Y Range (06-10) 5Y Ave
Crude Refined Products 2010 2011 2012
Fig 54 China crude oil net imports y/y% Fig 55 China crude oil net imports – at 5Y highs
Y-o-Y % (kb/d)
Net Imports Crude Net Imports
100% 6,900
60% 6,000
20% 5,100
4,200
-20%
3,300
-60%
2,400
-100%
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
1,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5Y Range (06-10) 5Y Ave
Crude Refined Products 2010 2011 2012
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 16
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Fig 57 China diesel consumption – top end; but flat
Fig 56 China diesel apparent consumption y/y% y/y
Y-o-Y % (kb/d)
Diesel Apparent Consumption Diesel Consumption
20% 3,800
15% 3,400
10% 3,000
5% 2,600
0% 2,200
-5% 1,800
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Fig 59 China gasoline consumption – the lonely
Fig 58 China gasoline apparent consumption y/y% bright spot
Y-o-Y % (kb/d)
Gasoline Apparent Consumption Gasoline Consumption
20% 2,200
2,000
15%
1,800
10%
1,600
5%
1,400
0% 1,200
1,000
-5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Jul-12
Jan-11
Feb-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Jun-12
5Y Range 5Y Ave.
2010 2011 2012
Fig 60 China fuel oil apparent consumption y/y% Fig 61 China fuel oil consumption – near 5Y lows
Y-o-Y % (kb/d)
Fuel Oil Apparent Consumption Fuel Oil Consumption
25% 1,250
1,000
10%
750
-5%
500
-20% 250
-
-35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
May-11
May-12
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 17
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
Fig 64
Fig 62
Jan-10
Feb-10 Jan-10
(mt)
Mar-10 Feb-10
(mt)
Apr-10 Mar-10
May-10 Apr-10
Jun-10 May-10
Jul-10 Jun-10
24 September 2012
Aug-10 Jul-10
Aug-10
Macquarie Research
Sep-10
Oct-10 Sep-10
Nov-10 Oct-10
Dec-10 Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Jan-11
Feb-11 Feb-11
Mar-11 Mar-11
Apr-11 Apr-11
May-11 May-11
Jun-11 Jun-11
China crude inventories
Jul-11 Jul-11
Aug-11 Aug-11
China gasoline inventories
Sep-11 Sep-11
Oct-11 Oct-11
China Gasoline Inventory
China Crude Oil Inventory
Nov-11 Nov-11
Dec-11 Dec-11
Jan-12 Jan-12
Feb-12 Feb-12
Mar-12 Mar-12
Apr-12 Apr-12
May-12 May-12
Jun-12 Jun-12
Jul-12 Jul-12
Aug-12 Aug-12
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
Fig 65
Fig 63
Jan-10
Jan-10
Feb-10
(mt)
Feb-10
(mt)
Mar-10 Mar-10
Apr-10 Apr-10
May-10 May-10
Jun-10 Jun-10
Jul-10 Jul-10
Aug-10 Aug-10
Sep-10 Sep-10
Oct-10 Oct-10
Nov-10 Nov-10
Dec-10 Dec-10
Jan-11 Jan-11
Feb-11 Feb-11
Mar-11 Mar-11
Apr-11 Apr-11
May-11 May-11
Jun-11 Jun-11
China diesel inventories
Jul-11 Jul-11
Aug-11 Aug-11
China kerosene inventories
Sep-11 Sep-11
China Diesel Inventory
Oct-11 Oct-11
China Kerosene Inventory
Nov-11 Nov-11
Dec-11 Dec-11
Jan-12 Jan-12
Feb-12 Feb-12
Mar-12 Mar-12
Apr-12 Apr-12
May-12 May-12
Jun-12 Jun-12
Jul-12 Jul-12
Aug-12 Aug-12
Asia Oil & Gas
18
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
China Gas Demand, Production & Imports
Fig 67 China natural gas apparent consumption –
Fig 66 China gas apparent consumption y/y% 2012-TD up 17% y/y; despite the slowdown in 2Q
Y-o-Y % (bcm)
Gas Apparent Consumption Gas Apparent Consumption
40% 15.0
35%
13.0
30%
11.0
25%
20% 9.0
15%
7.0
10%
5.0
5%
0% 3.0
May-10
May-11
May-12
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Fig 69 China natural gas production – remains flat
Fig 68 China natural gas production y/y% for a fourth consecutive month
Y-o-Y % (bcm)
Gas Indigenous Production Gas Indigenous Production
30% 12.0
11.0
25%
10.0
20%
9.0
15% 8.0
10% 7.0
6.0
5%
5.0
0%
4.0
-5% 3.0
May-10
May-11
May-12
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Fig 70 China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG) Fig 71 China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG) –
y/y% at record highs on Turkmen vols + imported LNG
Y-o-Y % (bcm)
Gas Imports (pipe + LNG) Gas Imports (pipe + LNG)
250% 3.5
3.0
200%
2.5
150% 2.0
1.5
100%
1.0
50%
0.5
0% -
May-10
May-11
May-12
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
(0.5)
5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 19
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Singapore Oil Product Inventories
Fig 72 S’pore total oil product inventory – near the Fig 73 S’pore middle distillate inventory – bottom
5Y average end
(kb) (kb)
S'pore Total Oil Inventories S'pore Middle Distillate Inventories
58,000 18,000
50,000
15,000
42,000
12,000
34,000
9,000
26,000
6,000
18,000
10,000 3,000
May
May
Mar
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Sing Total Oil Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave Sing MD Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Fig 74 S’pore light distillate inventory – back below Fig 75 S’pore fuel oil inventory – above the 5Y
the 5Y average average
(kb) (kb)
S'pore Light Distillate Inventories S'pore Fuel Oil Inventories
14,000 30,000
12,500
25,000
11,000
20,000
9,500
15,000
8,000
10,000
6,500
5,000 5,000
May
May
Mar
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Sing LD Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave Sing FO Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 20
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
US Oil Demand & Inventories
Fig 76 US total product dmd – at 5Y lows Fig 77 US crude inventories – at historic highs
(kb/d) (kb)
US Total Product Demand US crude inventories (ex SPR)
23,000 420,000
21,600 390,000
360,000
20,200
330,000
18,800
300,000
17,400
270,000
16,000
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
240,000
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Jul
Nov
Dec
US Total Pdt Dmd 5Y range 5Y ave.
US Crude Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012
2010 2011 2012
Fig 78 US diesel demand – near the 5Y average Fig 79 US diesel inventories – bottom end
(kb/d) (kb)
5,000
US Distillate Demand US Distillate Inventories
200,000
4,500 176,000
4,000
152,000
3,500
128,000
3,000
104,000
2,500
May
Mar
80,000
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Jul
Nov
Dec
US Distillate Dmd 5Y Range 5Y ave.
2010 2011 2012 US Dist Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave.
2010 2011 2012
Fig 80 US gasoline demand Fig 81 US gasoline inventories
(kb/d) (kb)
US Gasoline Demand US Gasoline Inventories
10,300 260,000
9,800 238,000
9,300 216,000
8,800 194,000
8,300 172,000
7,800 150,000
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Feb
Apr
Jun
Oct
Aug
Sep
Jul
Nov
Dec
US Gasoline Dmd 5Y Range 5Y ave. US Gaso Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave
2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Source for all charts: EIA, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24 September 2012 21
24 September 2012
Macquarie Research
Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation
Fig 82 Global Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation
Macquarie Research
Global Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics 21 September 12
Price
Company Local Price Mcap Reco. Upside EV/EBITDA Ratio P/E Ratio P/B Ratio Dividend Yield FCF Yield ROACE Gearing
Target
Curr (local) (US$ bn) (local) 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E
Exxon USD 91.9 424.3 Outperform 97.0 +6% 4.2 x 4.4 x 12.2 x 11.0 x 2.3 x 2.1 x 2.4% 2.5% 5.9% 4.6% 19.3% 19.4% 0.9% 3.4%
RD Shell GBp 2,202 133.8 Outperform 2,550 +16% 4.6 x 3.3 x 8.2 x 7.0 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 4.8% 4.9% 10.4% 13.3% 13.1% 14.5% 7.9% 4.5%
BP GBp 441 136.5 Outperform 570 +29% 5.2 x 3.7 x 8.0 x 6.4 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 4.6% 5.1% 1.0% 9.1% 11.7% 13.6% 23.7% 18.5%
Chevron USD 117.8 231.1 Outperform 123.0 +4% 3.6 x 3.4 x 9.1 x 9.1 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 3.0% 3.2% 3.9% 2.7% 17.9% 16.1% -6.2% -2.0%
TOTAL EUR 40.8 125.3 Neutral 42.0 +3% 3.4 x 3.3 x 8.5 x 8.5 x 1.2 x 1.2 x 5.7% 5.7% 2.1% 3.8% 11.2% 10.6% 18.4% 18.8%
Conoco USD 57.4 69.7 Neutral 55.0 -4% 3.7 x 3.8 x 10.1 x 10.7 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 4.6% 4.6% -3.3% -0.1% 8.4% 7.4% 16.0% 18.1%
Eni EUR 18.6 87.6 Neutral 19.0 +2% 3.1 x 2.9 x 8.7 x 8.0 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 5.8% 5.9% 5.0% 8.1% 12.9% 11.8% -2.0% -5.0%
Statoil NOK 153.3 85.2 Neutral 160.0 +4% 4.1 x 4.7 x 9.4 x 9.6 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 4.2% 4.5% 1.3% 4.5% 12.0% 11.1% 8.3% 7.4%
BG Group GBp 1,246 68.9 Outperform 1,950 +57% 7.3 x 5.3 x 14.9 x 12.2 x 2.1 x 1.8 x 1.3% 1.4% -5.5% -2.5% 10.3% 11.1% 22.1% 23.5%
Occidental USD 87.4 70.8 Outperform 137.0 +57% 5.2 x 4.4 x 12.4 x 10.1 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 2.4% 2.7% 1.1% 4.6% 12.6% 14.1% 8.6% 5.2%
Repsol EUR 16.3 26.6 Underperform 13.5 -17% 5.0 x 4.7 x 10.4 x 10.0 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 4.0% 4.3% 0.6% 5.1% 6.5% 6.0% 33.3% 30.2%
Marathon Oil USD 30.8 21.7 Neutral 34.0 +10% 3.2 x 3.0 x 12.0 x 8.8 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 2.2% 2.3% -0.5% 3.7% 8.0% 9.4% 23.1% 20.1%
Galp EUR 13.0 14.0 Outperform 16.0 +23% 9.6 x 7.5 x 29.1 x 21.2 x 1.9 x 1.8 x 1.8% 2.2% -6.8% -3.3% 6.6% 6.2% -9.9% -2.2%
OMV EUR 28.1 11.9 Neutral 26.5 -6% 3.4 x 3.4 x 6.1 x 6.0 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 3.9% 3.9% 7.1% 6.9% 10.1% 9.2% 10.2% 7.9%
PetroChina HKD 10.0 240.3 Outperform 12.0 +20% 5.3 x 5.0 x 10.8 x 8.7 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 3.9% 4.8% -8.9% 4.3% 10.2% 10.6% 27.0% 26.0%
Sinopec HKD 7.1 80.3 Neutral 7.1 +1% 4.1 x 3.2 x 9.2 x 6.5 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 2.7% 3.8% -9.0% 4.8% 9.5% 11.7% 28.1% 26.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.7 90.6 Outperform 21.0 +33% 4.4 x 4.1 x 8.0 x 7.6 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 2.0% 3.1% 3.7% 4.0% 20.4% 18.3% 8.6% 5.5%
RIL INR 850 51.4 Neutral 759 -11% 7.9 x 7.5 x 11.8 x 11.7 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 1.1% 1.1% 18.1% 1.5% 9.7% 9.3% 19.8% 16.2%
ONGC INR 294.5 46.9 Outperform 325.0 +10% 3.8 x 4.4 x 9.5 x 9.6 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.3% 3.4% 6.2% 5.7% 19.9% 18.5% -16.2% -18.1%
Woodside AUD 33.8 29.5 Neutral 37.5 +11% 8.2 x 7.1 x 16.5 x 15.5 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 3.7% 4.1% 5.5% 10.0% 9.8% 10.1% 12.4% 5.6%
Petrobras* BRL 22.7 149.1 Not Rated NM NM 6.4 x 6.1 x 9.3 x 7.8 x 0.7 x 0.7 x
Rosneft* USD 6.7 70.8 Not Rated NM NM 4.6 x 4.6 x 6.6 x 6.6 x 0.9 x 0.8 x
Big Four 925.7 +10.2% 4.4 x 3.7 x 9.4 x 8.4 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 3.7% 3.9% 5.3% 7.4% 15.5% 15.9% 6.6% 6.1%
Europe 689.9 +15.6% 5.1 x 4.3 x 11.5 x 9.8 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 4.0% 4.2% 1.7% 5.0% 10.5% 10.5% 12.5% 11.5%
US 817.6 +9.0% 4.0 x 3.8 x 11.2 x 9.9 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 2.9% 3.1% 1.4% 3.1% 13.3% 13.3% 8.5% 9.0%
APAC & EM 758.9 +15.0% 5.6 x 5.3 x 10.2 x 9.3 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 2.8% 3.4% 2.6% 5.1% 13.2% 13.1% 13.3% 10.2%
Global 2,266.4 +13.0% 5.0 x 4.5 x 10.9 x 9.7 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 3.4% 3.7% 1.9% 4.5% 12.0% 11.9% 11.7% 10.5%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Averages are calculated on a market cap weighted basis.
Asia Oil & Gas
22
24 September 2012
Macquarie Research
Fig 83 Global Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus
Macquarie Research
Global Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics 21 September 12
Price
Company Local Price Upside Absolute Performance EPS (local) EPS growth Cons EPS (local) Macq. vs. Cons Cons. Macq. vs.
Target
Cons.
Curr (local) (local) 1M 3M 6M 1Y YTD 2011A 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E TP
Exxon USD 91.9 97.0 +5.5% +5.1% +11.9% +6.9% +27.7% +8.4% 8.42 7.34 8.17 -12.8% +11.3% 7.73 8.17 -5.1% -0.1% 92.6 4.8%
RD Shell GBp 2,201.5 2,550.0 +15.8% -2.2% +3.3% -1.5% +6.4% -7.1% 3.99 4.42 5.18 +11.0% +17.2% 4.25 4.51 +4.1% +15.1% 2,485.3 2.6%
BP GBp 441.0 570.0 +29.3% -2.1% +7.0% -8.4% +9.1% -4.2% 1.14 0.90 1.13 -20.6% +25.3% 0.92 1.03 -2.0% +10.6% 502.7 13.4%
Chevron USD 117.8 123.0 +4.4% +5.2% +17.8% +9.2% +25.0% +10.7% 13.18 12.54 12.59 -4.9% +0.5% 12.84 12.71 -2.4% -0.9% 121.5 1.3%
TOTAL EUR 40.8 42.0 +2.9% +0.9% +17.1% -1.9% +26.7% +3.3% 5.07 4.85 4.87 -4.3% +0.2% 5.31 5.47 -8.6% -11.1% 43.8 -4.1%
Conoco USD 57.4 55.0 -4.1% +1.3% +8.7% -2.6% +15.8% +3.3% 9.17 5.54 5.26 -39.6% -5.0% 5.44 5.86 +1.8% -10.2% 59.9 -8.2%
Eni EUR 18.6 19.0 +2.4% +3.1% +13.2% +1.8% +44.1% +15.9% 1.94 2.06 2.26 +6.5% +9.6% 2.09 2.21 -1.2% +2.2% 19.8 -4.2%
Statoil NOK 153.3 160.0 +4.4% +1.7% +11.5% -3.2% +20.1% -0.1% 15.89 15.88 15.59 -0.0% -1.8% 17.06 17.61 -6.9% -11.5% 166.5 -3.9%
BG Group GBp 1,246.0 1,950.0 +56.5% -5.0% -0.2% -17.5% -0.5% -9.5% 1.31 1.39 1.70 +6.0% +22.3% 1.37 1.59 +1.2% +7.1% 1,646.7 18.4%
Occidental USD 87.4 137.0 +56.8% -0.8% +10.2% -10.6% +14.5% -6.7% 8.40 6.96 8.55 -17.1% +22.8% 6.94 7.64 +0.4% +11.9% 108.7 26.1%
Repsol EUR 16.3 13.5 -17.2% +6.9% +34.9% -18.9% -16.5% -31.3% 1.57 1.49 1.56 -4.9% +4.3% 1.56 1.72 -4.3% -9.3% 17.5 -23.0%
Marathon Oil USD 30.8 34.0 +10.5% +13.9% +32.0% -7.4% +29.7% +5.2% 3.53 2.44 3.32 -30.8% +36.2% 2.66 3.29 -8.3% +1.1% 34.4 -1.2%
Galp EUR 13.0 16.0 +23.0% +8.2% +35.2% -2.9% -10.8% +14.3% 0.31 0.44 0.60 +41.5% +37.2% 0.43 0.54 +1.3% +11.2% 16.2 -1.1%
OMV EUR 28.1 26.5 -5.6% +6.2% +21.4% -0.1% +12.2% +19.8% 3.39 4.31 4.43 +27.3% +2.7% 4.32 4.40 -0.3% +0.7% 28.6 -7.4%
PetroChina HKD 10.0 12.0 +19.8% +3.2% -2.7% -8.8% +7.7% +5.3% 0.73 0.71 0.88 -2.1% +23.7% 0.75 0.83 -5.3% +6.2% 11.4 5.5%
Sinopec HKD 7.1 7.1 +0.6% -3.2% +2.6% -16.7% -5.2% -12.1% 0.85 0.62 0.88 -26.6% +41.3% 0.69 0.86 -9.4% +2.8% 8.1 -12.2%
CNOOC HKD 15.7 21.0 +33.4% +4.2% +5.1% -5.9% +21.5% +15.9% 1.57 1.49 1.58 -5.1% +6.0% 1.45 1.44 +3.1% +9.8% 17.2 21.8%
RIL INR 850.3 759.0 -10.7% +4.4% +18.3% +10.7% +1.5% +22.7% 73.80 66.75 67.54 -9.6% +1.2% 62.29 67.07 +7.2% +0.7% 798.2 -4.9%
ONGC INR 294.5 325.0 +10.4% +2.6% +7.0% +8.5% +12.8% +14.8% 10.31 29.22 29.61 NM +1.3% 30.65 33.03 -4.7% -10.4% 312.2 4.1%
Woodside AUD 33.8 37.5 +11.0% -5.1% +6.5% -2.1% +1.4% +11.5% 2.09 2.20 2.35 +5.7% +6.6% 2.52 2.66 -12.4% -11.6% 39.0 -3.9%
Petrobras* BRL 22.7 +6.9% +17.8% -5.8% +10.2% +5.6% 2.45 2.93 28.4
Rosneft* USD 6.7 +5.3% +5.8% -6.8% +0.8% +1.2% 31.63 31.31 7.7
Big Four +10.2% +3.0% +11.4% +4.0% +21.2% +4.9% -8.6% +11.5% -2.6% +3.5% +4.9%
Europe +15.6% -0.1% +10.7% -5.0% +15.3% -1.1% -0.2% +12.6% -2.2% +2.4% +2.2%
US +9.0% +4.5% +13.7% +4.8% +24.8% +7.2% -13.7% +8.5% -3.3% -0.1% +4.4%
APAC & EM +15.0% +3.3% +6.0% -5.9% +7.5% +6.4% -7.0% +19.9% -3.6% +3.4% +4.0%
Global +13.0% +2.7% +10.2% -1.7% +16.1% +4.4% -7.3% +13.6% -3.1% +1.8% +3.6%
Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Averages are calculated on a market cap weighted basis.
Asia Oil & Gas
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24 September 2012
Macquarie Research
Global Oil Supply-Demand
Fig 84 Macquarie Oil Demand-Supply Model
Macquarie Research
Global Oil Supply-Demand
(mb/d) 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
North America 23.3 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.0
Europe 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.5 14.7
OECD APAC 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.1
OECD 45.6 46.1 45.8 45.3 45.2 45.3 45.5 45.8 45.9
Non-OECD Europe 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Non-OECD APAC 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.1
FSU 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8
China 8.1 9.1 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.5 13.1
Latin America 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6
Africa 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5
Middle East 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.2
Non-OECD 39.9 42.1 43.4 44.9 46.5 48.2 49.9 51.6 53.1
Total Demand 85.6 88.3 89.2 90.3 91.7 93.5 95.4 97.3 99.0
North America 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.5
Europe 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9
OECD APAC 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
FSU 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.3
Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Other Asia 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
Latin America 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.1
Middle East 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Africa 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Global Biofuels 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
Processing Gains 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Non-OPEC Supply 51.5 52.6 52.7 53.1 53.9 54.7 55.8 56.6 57.3
OPEC crude 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.6 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.7 31.7
OPEC NGLs + non-conventionals 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.1
OPEC Supply 34.1 34.8 35.7 36.8 37.8 38.3 38.7 38.7 38.7
Total Supply 85.6 87.4 88.5 89.9 91.7 93.0 94.5 95.3 96.0
Supply-Demand 0.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -2.0 -3.0
Asia Oil & Gas
Demand Growth (y/y) -1.0 2.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7
Supply Growth (y/y) -1.1 1.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7
Source: IEA, BP Stat Review, JODI, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24
24 September 2012
Macquarie Research
China Gas Supply-Demand
Fig 85 Macquarie China Gas Supply-Demand
Macquarie Research
China Gas Supply-Demand
2011- 2011-
(bcm) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
15e 20e
Demand
Residential 8 10 14 17 18 23 29 34 41 48 56 64 71 78 84 89 18% 13%
Industrial 30 34 40 45 44 49 59 69 80 92 107 116 125 135 146 157 16% 11%
Power Generation 3 4 8 8 13 19 23 27 31 34 38 42 46 49 53 57 13% 11%
Transport (NGVs) 1 1 1 2 3 5 6 7 11 14 19 25 31 40 49 60 33% 29%
Other 5 6 7 9 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 8% 8%
China Gas Demand 47 56 71 81 90 108 129 150 176 205 237 264 292 323 354 388 16% 13%
y/y% 18% 20% 26% 15% 10% 20% 20% 16% 17% 16% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%
Supply
Tarim 5 11 14 16 17 17 20 23 26 30 35 40 46 50 54 58
Changqing 7 7 9 11 15 16 18 20 23 26 29 33 38 42 46 51
Sichuan 11 13 14 14 14 14 15 17 18 20 21 23 25 27 29 31
Puguang (Sichuan) 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12
Xinjiang 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7
E-S China Sea Others 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Liwan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Legacy fields 27 27 31 38 37 43 42 39 41 43 44 45 45 45 45 46
China Indigenous Pdtn 51 59 69 80 85 97 103 110 120 132 145 158 171 181 192 205 9% 8%
y/y% 23% 15% 18% 16% 6% 13% 7% 7% 9% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6%
Turkmenistan 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 20 25 40 40 40 50 60 60 60
Russia/Central Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 22 30 30
Myanmmar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
China Pipeline Imports 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 24 37 52 52 52 77 94 102 102 55% 31%
y/y% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 256% 170% 54% 41% 0% 0% 48% 22% 9% 0%
LNG Imports 0 0 0 0 4 8 17 16 18 20 39 54 45 48 60 81 23% 19%
Contracted LNG 0 1 1 1 3 7 9 20 25 41 41 47 47 46 46 46
Implied Spot LNG 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 14 35
LNG imports y/y% 0% 0% 0% 0% NM 96% 103% -6% 16% 10% 95% 37% -17% 7% 27% 35%
China Gas Supply 51 59 69 80 90 108 129 150 176 205 237 264 292 323 354 388 16% 13%
y/y% 23% 15% 18% 16% 11% 20% 20% 16% 17% 16% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%
Asia Oil & Gas
Source: CEIC, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
25
24 September 2012
Macquarie Research
Global LNG Supply-Demand
Fig 86 Macquarie Global LNG Supply-Demand
Macquarie LNG Supply/Demand Model
(in mtpa) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e
SUPPLY
Total Operational 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 268 263 259 255 250 244 237 232 226 219 209 200
Total Under Construction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 21 44 65 80 85 88 94 94 94 94 94
Total FEED 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 26 49 64 78 84 90 97 97
FEED Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 17 26 30 43 49 55 62 62
FEED Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 9 23 34 35 35 35 35 35
FEED ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Proposed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 21 44 83 123 165 189 192 192 192
Proposed Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 7 21 39 61 86 101 104 104 104
Proposed Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 8 11 32 50 67 76 76 76 76
Proposed ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Total Speculative 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 18 46 87 118 143 169 185 188
Speculative Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 29 54 70 81 97 105 107
Speculative Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 16 28 41 54 65 72 74
Speculative ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 7 7 7 7
Total Higly Speculative 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 9 11 29 49 70 83
Stalled Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 8 16 23 28 35
Stalled Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 3 3 3 7 11
Stalled ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 24 35 36
Global LNG Supply (Firm) 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 274 283 305 327 355 378 389 404 405 404 400 391
Global LNG Supply (Firm + Possible) 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 274 287 314 351 422 515 608 698 765 814 846 853
DEMAND
Japan 55 57 55 61 59 60 64 69 71 67 71 81 85 87 88 91 91 92 93 94 95 95 96 97 98 98
Korea 16 16 18 20 22 23 26 26 28 20 34 37 41 44 45 45 44 43 42 42 42 43 43 44 45 45
Taiwan 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 19
China 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 6 10 13 17 23 28 31 42 42 45 45 53 55 57 59 61 63
India 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 8 8 9 9 13 16 17 18 20 21 23 25 26 28 30 31 33 34 36
New Asia Pac 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 29 32 36 39
Asia Pac 75 77 79 86 90 94 105 115 120 110 133 157 176 191 204 213 227 231 239 244 259 266 274 283 291 301
Middle East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 17 17
North America 5 5 5 11 14 13 13 18 11 13 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9
Argentina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2
Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2
South America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 11 12 14 17 17 19 19 19 17 16 14 13 11 10
UK 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 8 14 19 20 21 21 23 23 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 31 32
Existing continential Europe 26 26 30 32 29 35 41 38 41 43 49 45 39 36 33 33 33 38 50 51 56 58 62 61 60 62
New Europe 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 8 11 13 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 25 27 28
Europe 26 26 30 32 30 37 45 42 44 53 65 67 64 64 65 69 71 78 93 96 103 108 114 116 117 122
Other 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 0 1 3 4 4 9 2 9 1 3 1 1 3 0
Global LNG Demand 107 108 114 129 135 145 163 175 175 184 225 250 269 288 306 325 343 360 376 391 405 417 428 439 449 459
Source: BP Stat Review, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
Asia Oil & Gas
26
Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return price movements. adjustments made:
Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,
expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
yield minority interests
Macquarie – Asia/Europe High – stock should be expected to move up or
Outperform – expected return >+10% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
Underperform – expected return <-10% ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets
Macquarie First South - South Africa or down at least 30–40% in a year. ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Outperform – expected return >+10% Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Low–medium – stock should be expected to *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average
Underperform – expected return <-10% move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. number of shares
Macquarie - Canada
Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Low – stock should be expected to move up or All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks
Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return down at least 15–25% in a year. are modelled under IFRS (International Financial
Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Reporting Standards).
Macquarie - USA Recommendations – 12 months
Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
3000 index return Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index
return
Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000
index return
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 June 2012
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 55.67% 61.00% 53.43% 42.58% 69.23% 46.60% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 30.50% 22.11% 36.99% 52.41% 28.02% 33.69% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.14% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 13.83% 16.89% 9.59% 5.01% 2.75% 19.71% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.45% of stocks covered are investment banking clients)
Company Specific Disclosures:
Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Analyst Certification:
The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The
analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd ABN 94
122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062) (MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain
independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
General Disclaimers:
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Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas
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Asia Research
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