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					 ASIA Oil & Gas
                                                       Asia Oil & Gas
                                                       Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the
                                                       big deal?
                                                       Singapore GRM’s remain strong
                                                       Singapore GRM’s saw a small w/w improvement to $8.7/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w)
                                                       and remained near the top-end of the 5Y range; with strength in gasoline
                                                       ($15.4/bbl, +$0.6/bbl w/w) and diesel cracks ($19.7/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w) more
                                                       than offsetting the decline in LPG cracks (-$23.5/bbl, -$1.7/bbl w/w). The
 Inside                                                strength was in-part driven by the $3.9/bbl decline in Brent prices during the
 Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the big deal?    2
 Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations           11    week (weak PMI in China, Europe; weak US jobs data).
 Crude Oil Price & Differentials                 13
 Asia Refining Margins & Cracks                  14
 China Oil Demand, Production & Imports          16    China GRM’s – spot margins turn positive
 China Gas Demand, Production & Imports          20    Chinese GRMs improved $1/bbl w/w to $8.5/bbl (3QTD average $3.4/bbl vs. -
 Singapore Oil Product Inventories               21
 US Oil Demand & Inventories                     22    $2.5/bbl in 2Q). Of note, following the material $7.7/bbl decrease in Dubai crude
 Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation          23    prices during the week, spot China GRMs are now $4.3/bbl (i.e. above the $4/bbl
 Global Oil Supply-Demand                        25    EBIT breakeven levels) – IF sustained, this would be a positive for Sinopec (see
 China Gas Supply-Demand                         26
 Global LNG Supply-Demand                        27
                                                       chart of the week below).

 Asia Most Preferred                                   CNOOC-Nexen – What’s the big deal?
 CNOOC (OP, TP: HK$21.0) – MarQuee Buy List
 Kunlun (OP, TP: HK$14.5)                              CNOOC’s July announcement of its planned US$17.9bn (EV) purchase of
 PTTGC (OP, TP: Bt79.0)                                Canada’s Nexen is progressing through the approval process. Ultimately we
 Inpex (OP, TP: Y720,000)
 BPCL (OP, TP: Rs. 457.0)                              believe it is compelling enough for all the key stakeholders that it will go ahead,
                                                       essentially unaltered. It is certainly important for CNOOC; in one step it would
 Asia Least Preferred                                  add 22% and 35% to 2013E production and 2P reserves (propelling it past
 Sinopec (N, TP: HK$7.1)                               Sinopec) and improve its oft-maligned reserve life (2P) to 18.3 years (+11%).
 COSL (UP, TP: HK$10.4)
 Petronet LNG (UP, TP: Rs.122.0)                       Our pro forma CNOOC-Nexen sum-of-the-parts valuation would stay almost
 FCFC (UP, TP: NT$56.5)                                unchanged at HK$21.2/sh but Nexen’s contingent resource offers significant
                                                       value upside (blue-sky CNOOC-Nexen valuation of HK$31/sh). We raise our
                                                       target price by HK$1.5/sh to HK$21.0 and reiterate our Outperform rating.

 Macquarie Capital Securities Limited                  Chart of the week: Spot GRMs now above EBIT breakeven
   James Hubbard, CFA
   +852 3922 1226 james.hubbard@macquarie.com             ($/bbl)
                                                                                                        MacQ China GRM
   Aditya Suresh, CFA                                    12.0
   +852 3922 1265     aditya.suresh@macquarie.com
 Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited                  8.0
   Trevor Buchinski, CFA
   +66 2 694 7829 trevor.buchinski@macquarie.com          4.0
 Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Ltd
                                                          0.0
   Jal Irani
   +91 22 6720 4080          jal.irani@macquarie.com     -4.0
 Macquarie Capital Securities Limited, Taiwan
 Branch                                                  -8.0
   Corinne Jian, CFA
   +886 2 2734 7522     corinne.jian@macquarie.com      -12.0
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 Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited
   Polina Diyachkina
   +81 3 3512 7886 polina.diyachkina@macquarie.com                                             5Y Range (07-11)           5Y Ave                 2011
 Macquarie Securities Korea Limited                                   2012                     Implied Fwd Margin         EBIT Breakeven
   Brandon I Lee
   +82 2 3705 8669     brandon.lee3@macquarie.com      Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012

 24 September 2012


Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our
website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                 Asia Oil & Gas




Key Macquarie Research                                        Cracking Times – Nexen – What’s the big
Taiwan petchems – prolonged weak
end-demand (4 Sept)                                           deal?
Asian Refining - Near-term trade;                                Brent declined by $3.9/bbl on average and ended the week at $112.3/bbl mainly on
medium-term played (24 Aug)                                       weak PMI data in China and Europe - HSBC China manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8;
                                                                  Markit Euro-area PMI dropped to 45.9 (cons. 46.6) in September (14th consecutive month
Offshore China – A glass still three-
                                                                  below 50); and in US weekly jobless claims were higher than consensus expectations.
quarters full (30 Jul)
                                                                 Singapore GRM’s saw a small w/w improvement to $8.7/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w) with
China Oils – Downstream Blues (03 Jul)
                                                                  strength in gasoline ($15.4/bbl, +$0.6/bbl w/w) and diesel cracks ($19.7/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w)
Global Oil – A more gradual path to                               more than offsetting the decline in LPG cracks (-$23.5/bbl, -$1.7/bbl w/w).
$115/bbl (11 Jun)
                                                                 Chinese GRMs improved $1/bbl w/w to $8.5/bbl (3QTD average $3.4/bbl vs. -$2.5/bbl
For those seeking defensive oil names                             in 2Q). Of note, following the material $7.7/bbl decrease in Dubai crude prices during the
(08 Jun)                                                          week, spot China GRMs are now $4.3/bbl (i.e. above the $4/bbl EBIT breakeven levels) –
                                                                  if sustained, this would be a positive for Sinopec shares.
The Chinese NGV (R)Evolution (22 May)
                                                                 In petchems, our benchmark NCC margin witnessed a big w/w increase (+18%) to end at
China Oil & Gas - “The Three Sisters”
                                                                  $270/t; mainly driven by the 6% decline in Naphtha prices during the week (on lower crude
(21 Oct)
                                                                  prices).




Fig 1        Asia Oils 1W Share Performance                                                          Fig 2      Asia Oils 2012 Share Performance

                                  Asia Oils 1W Performance                                                                         Asia Oils 2012 YTD Performance
                                                                                                                        BPCL                                                             45%
                  Inpex Corp                                                                  6.7%
                                                                                                                       Caltex                                                      34%
                            RIL                                                              6.4%
                                                                                                                 GS Holdings                                                      31%
                 JX Holdings                                                               5.6%
                                                                                                                   Bangchak                                                       30%
                         ONGC                                                       4.1%
                                                                                                               Aban Offshore                                                 26%
               Aban Offshore                                                        4.0%
                                                                                                                      Kunlun                                                 24%
            Japan Petroleum                                                         3.9%
                                                                                                                          RIL                                               23%
                   Petrochina                                                2.7%
                                                                                                                   Oil Search                                               21%
                    PTT E&P                                                 2.6%
                                                                                                                SK Innovation                                           19%
                  Cairn India                                               2.6%
                                                                                                                       HPCL                                             18%
                    Bangchak                                                2.5%
                                                                                                                     CNOOC                                             16%
                          NPC                                              2.1%
                                                                                                                       ONGC                                           15%
                         COSL                                        1.1%
                                                                                                                      Thai Oil                                        15%
                  PTT Global                                        0.8%
                                                                                                         MSCI Asia (ex Japan)                                         13%
                     CNOOC                                         0.5%
                                                                                                                   Woodside                                       12%
                           PTT                                     0.3%
                                                                                                                   Cairn India                                    11%
                         FCFC                                     0.1%
                                                                                                                       COSL                                       9%
        MSCI Asia (ex Japan)                                      0.0%
                                                                                                                    Jpn Petro                                    6%
                          GDG                         -0.6%
                                                                                                                         PTT                                 6%
                     Oil India                        -0.7%
                                                                                                                Petronet LNG                                 6%
                          IOCL                        -0.7%
                                                                                                                  PTT Global                                 5%
               Esso Thailand                        -0.9%
                                                                                                                   Petrochina                                5%
                           FPC                    -1.5%
                                                                                                                        S-Oil                                5%
                         Kunlun                -1.7%
                                                                                                                        Brent                                4%
                     Sinopec                   -1.8%
                                                                                                                         FPC                                 4%
                Petronet LNG                  -2.0%
                                                                                                               Esso Thailand                                2%
                    Woodside                  -2.0%
                                                                                                                   Inpex Corp                               1%
                         BPCL                -2.1%
                                                                                                                     Oil India                              1%
                   Oil Search               -2.3%
                                                                                                                        IOCL                           0%
                     Thai Oil               -2.5%
                                                                                                                       FCFC                          -1%
                         HPCL             -2.9%
                                                                                                                         NPC                         -2%
                         Santos     -3.8%
                                                                                                                      Santos                     -6%
                          S-Oil    -4.1%
                                                                                                                    PTT E&P                      -6%
               SK Innovation      -4.3%
                                                                                                                  JX Holdings                    -6%
                         Caltex   -4.3%
                                                                                                                     Sinopec                  -12%
                          Brent   -4.5%
                                                                                                                        GDG -49%
                 GS Holdings -4.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012                                                Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                               2
Macquarie Research                                                                                       Asia Oil & Gas




                     What’s new in the region?
                     CNOOC – Nexen – What’s the big deal? (James Hubbard, 24 Sept): CNOOC’s (883 HK,
                     OP, TP: HK$21.0) July announcement of its planned US$17.9bn (EV) purchase of Canada’s
                     Nexen (NXY CN, N, TP: C$27.50, analyst Chris Feltin) is progressing through the approval
                     process. Ultimately we believe it is compelling enough for all the key stakeholders that it will
                     go ahead, essentially unaltered. It is certainly important for CNOOC; in one step it would add
                     22% and 35% to 2013E production and 2P reserves (propelling it past Sinopec) and improve
                     its oft-maligned reserve life (2P) to 18.3 years (+11%). Our pro forma CNOOC-Nexen sum-of-
                     the-parts valuation would stay almost unchanged at HK$21.2/sh but Nexen’s contingent
                     resource offers significant value upside (blue-sky CNOOC-Nexen valuation of HK$31/sh).
                     We raise our target price by HK$1.5/sh to HK$21.0 and reiterate our Outperform rating.


                     ONGC – Mumbai High-er (Jal Irani, 24 Sept): We took a group of institutional investors to
                     ONGC’s (ONGC IN, OP, TP: Rs. 325) Mumbai High field 3D virtual reality room/geological
                     centre, which oversees ~40% of India’s oil/gas production, and almost all of ONGC’s offshore
                     operations. We believe that through quick monetization of the recent large D-1 find and
                     developing marginal fields in the basin, ONGC is firmly poised to reverse its sliding oil output
                     starting as early as FY14E. Maintain Outperform.


                     Japan PowerGen Series – upstream oil and gas alert (Polina Diyachkina, 18 Sept): The
                     Japanese government has decided to promote a 'zero-nuclear' policy by 2030s; our base
                     case has been for 10% nuclear vs 25% pre quake. Most of nuclear will be replaced by gas-
                     fired power plants, but there is also scope for an increase in alternative energy and coal-fired
                     power plants. Clear beneficiaries of the zero-nuclear policy are LNG plays – Inpex and Mitsui.
                     On the capex front, LNG engineering companies Chiyoda and JGC as well as MHI, Toshiba
                     and Hitachi would also benefit from both overseas LNG projects and a build-up of domestic
                     gas and coal-fired power plants.


                     PTTEP – Capital issuance clarity approaching (Trevor Buchinski, 19 Sept): On August
                     23, PTTEP (PTTEP TB, N, TP: Bt 165.0) delayed a shareholder vote on a proposed
                     US$3.1bn capital issuance. PTTEPs board is expected to decide on a new structure over the
                     next 10 days. Our NAV analysis that suggests fair value for PTTEP is closer to Bt200/sh.
                     Nevertheless and against our base case expectation we believe parent company PTT offers a
                     better risk/reward proposition.




24 September 2012                                                                                                       3
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Asia Oil & Gas




                                                                                     Asia Refining Summary

Fig 3          MacQ China GRM                                                                                                                           Fig 4         Singapore Complex GRM
          ($/bbl)                                                                                                                                               ($/bbl)
                                                       MacQ China GRM                                                                                                                                         Singapore Complex GRM
    20.0                                                                                                                                                   15


    12.0                                                                                                                                                   12


        4.0                                                                                                                                                 9


        -4.0                                                                                                                                                6


    -12.0                                                                                                                                                   3


    -20.0                                                                                                                                                   0
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                           MQ China GRM                                  5Y Range                                             5Y Ave                                         Sing GRM                                                         5Y Range (07-11)                                          5Y Ave
                           2011                                          2012                                                 Fwd Margin                                     2011                                                             2012


Fig 5          Korea Complex GRM                                                                                                                        Fig 6         China vs. S'pore GRM
          ($/bbl)                                                                                                                                               ($/bbl)
                                                Korea Complex GRM                                                                                                                                                    China vs. S'pore GRM
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                       Korea GRM                                        5Y Range (07-11)                                     5Y Ave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Delta                         China GRM                                 Singapore GRM
                       2011                                             2012


Fig 7          Asia Refining Margins Summary
Macquarie Research
Asia Refining Summary
                                                                                              Week                                                       Month                                                                Quarter                                                                        Year
                                                                       21-Sep             14-Sep   07-Sep                            31-Aug    Jul-12     Jul-11 Y-o-Y %                               3Q12TD                   2Q12                       %chg                2012-TD                         2011                     %chg
Crude Price & Differentials
Brent ($/bbl)                                                          111.9                   115.8              114.1              113.8     103.1      116.5                    -11%                     109.6                 108.6                      1%                     112.4                     111.1                           1%
Dubai ($/bbl)                                                          109.7                   113.8              111.9              110.1      99.2      110.0                    -10%                     105.8                 106.0                      0%                     109.4                     106.1                           3%
WTI ($/bbl)                                                             93.7                    97.6               95.8               95.7      87.9       97.2                    -10%                      92.1                  93.1                     -1%                      96.1                      95.1                           1%
Duri ($/bbl)                                                           112.0                   116.1              114.6              115.2     108.9      123.3                    -12%                     112.3                 112.0                      0%                     116.3                     116.2                           0%
Cinta ($/bbl)                                                          113.8                   117.9              116.4              116.5     108.7      125.0                    -13%                     113.2                 113.1                      0%                     117.1                     117.3                           0%
Duri - Brent ($/bbl)                                                     0.1                     0.2                0.5                1.3       5.7        6.8                    -16%                       2.7                   3.4                    -22%                       3.9                       5.1                         -24%
Arab Light - Heavy ($/bbl)                                               2.8                     2.8                3.0                2.4       2.4        4.1                    -41%                       2.5                   3.2                    -23%                       2.8                       4.1                         -32%
Brent - WTI ($/bbl)                                                     18.2                    18.2               18.2               18.2      15.3       19.3                    -21%                      17.4                  15.5                     13%                      16.3                      16.0                           1%
GRM
Macquarie China GRM ($/bbl)                                                   8.5                7.5                    5.5             5.6     (2.0)       0.2                      NM                         3.4                     (2.5)                  NM                         1.0                           1.0                  -2%
Macquarie China GRM (RMB/t)                                                  410                361                    268             272       (95)         8                      NM                        166                     (122)                   NM                          48                            51                  -7%
Singapore Complex GRM ($/bbl)                                                 8.7                8.4                    8.7             9.8      7.6        8.3                     -9%                         8.8                      6.1                  43%                         7.5                           7.6                  -2%
Korea Complex GRM ($/bbl)                                                     7.2                7.1                    8.3             8.9      6.0        7.0                    -15%                         7.2                      4.4                  63%                         5.9                           6.8                 -12%
China Refined Product Cracks
Gasoline ($/bbl)                                                         15.7                   14.1                9.8                10.0     (1.1)       2.1                      NM                       7.0                       (2.3)                  NM                         2.8                    2.8                         1%
Diesel ($/bbl)                                                           27.3                   25.7               20.2                20.4      8.9       12.5                    -29%                      17.4                        9.1                  91%                        13.5                   12.9                         5%
Fuel Oil ($/bbl)                                                        (21.2)                 (23.0)             (18.6)              (18.8)   (34.0)     (32.6)                    -4%                     (24.4)                     (38.4)                 57%                       (28.5)                 (27.8)                       -2%
Singapore Refined Product Cracks
Gasoline ($/bbl)                                                         15.4                   14.8               12.2                15.2     14.4       16.4                    -12%                      16.0                       14.2                12%                          14.8                   13.8                          8%
Naphtha ($/bbl)                                                          (6.5)                  (4.7)              (3.7)               (4.1)    (8.4)      (3.6)                   -57%                      (6.6)                      (8.8)               35%                          (6.6)                  (3.7)                       -44%
Diesel ($/bbl)                                                           19.7                   18.7               21.2                22.7     17.8       18.4                     -3%                      19.5                       15.6                25%                          17.2                   18.4                         -7%
Jet Fuel ($/bbl)                                                         21.2                   21.4               23.2                22.9     18.4       19.1                     -4%                      20.4                       16.2                26%                          17.4                   19.5                        -11%
LPG ($/bbl)                                                             (23.5)                 (21.8)             (22.0)              (27.6)   (38.0)     (40.9)                     8%                     (31.5)                     (45.1)               43%                         (34.9)                 (36.9)                         6%
Fuel Oil ($/bbl)                                                         (5.8)                  (6.7)              (5.5)               (5.2)    (4.0)      (5.1)                    28%                      (5.0)                      (3.8)              -24%                          (3.6)                  (5.2)                        45%

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Singapore GRM based on LPG 3%, Naphtha 7%, Gasoline 32%, Diesel 16%, Jet
19%, FO & Others 23%. China GRM based on - Diesel 0.30, Gasoline 0.20, Fuel Oil 0.09, LPG 0.02, Naphtha 0.02 using a regression analysis.


24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                              Asia Oil & Gas




                                                              Asia Petchems Summary

Fig 8 NCC (Naphtha Cracking Center) margin – sharp
w/w pick-up assisted by fall in naphtha prices                                                                  Fig 9              Ethylene-Naphtha spread

        $/ton
                                         NCC Margins                                                                   $/ton                                  Ethylene - Naphtha
    500
                                                                                                                   900
    450
    400                                                                                                            750
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                                                                                                                                    Ethylene-Naphtha                         Range (2007-11)                    Avg (2007-11)
                    NCC Margin                       Range 2007-11                     Avg
                    2011                             2012                                                                           2011                                     2012



Fig 10            PP-Naphtha spread                                                                             Fig 11              HDPE-Naphtha spread


   $/ton                                PP - Naphtha                                                              $/ton                                       HDPE - Naphtha
 1200                                                                                                            900
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                  PP-Naphtha                         Range (2007-11)                    Avg (2007-11)
                                                                                                                                   HDPE-Naphtha                              Range (2007-11)                      Avg (2007-11)
                  2011                               2012
                                                                                                                                   2011                                      2012



Fig 12            PX-Naphtha                                                                                    Fig 13              PVC-EDC spread

                                                                                                                   $/ton
     $/ton                                   PX-Naphtha                                                                                                               PVC - EDC
                                                                                                                  1000
    900
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    800
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    700
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                    PX-Naphtha                       Range 2007-10                     Avg                                           PVC-EDC                                 Range (2007-11)                    Avg (2007-11)
                    2011                             2012                                                                            2011                                    2012

Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5
Macquarie Research                                       Asia Oil & Gas




Fig 14   Asia Petchems Summary




Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                     6
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                     Asia Oil & Gas




                                                    Macro – from bad to a bit worse

                                                                                             Fig 16 China GDP estimates – 2012 on a downward
Fig 15         OECD LI                                                                       trajectory

        (Y-o-Y)                                                                                Y-o-Y %
                                          OECD LI                                                                                                            China GDP
      1.5%                                                                                         9.0

      1.0%
                                                                                                   8.7

      0.5%
                                                                                                   8.4
      0.0%
                                                                                                   8.1
   -0.5%

   -1.0%                                                                                           7.8


   -1.5%                                                                                           7.5




                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-12
                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-12
                                                                                                         Jul-11

                                                                                                                  Aug-11

                                                                                                                           Sep-11

                                                                                                                                    Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                  Nov-11

                                                                                                                                                             Dec-11

                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                                  Feb-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Apr-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug-12
        06




        07




        08




        09




        10




        11




        12
          6




          7




          8




          9




          0




          1
      l-0




      l-0




      l-0




      l-0




      l-1




      l-1
     n-




     n-




     n-




     n-




     n-




     n-




     n-
    Ju




    Ju




    Ju




    Ju




    Ju




    Ju
   Ja




   Ja




   Ja




   Ja




   Ja




   Ja




   Ja




                G7 Composite                US               China             Eurozone                                                                    2012                            2013



Fig 17         Unemployment rate – relatively stable                                         Fig 18 Manufacturing PMI – China, US, Euro in
                                                                                             contraction mode

   %
                                  Unemployment Rate                                                                                                Manufacturing PMI
      6.0                                                                                          70

      5.5
                                                                                                   60
      5.0
      4.5                                                                                          50

      4.0
                                                                                                   40
      3.5

      3.0                                                                                          30
      2.5
                                                                                                   20
      2.0
                                                                                                     Jan-         Jul-     Jan-         Jul-           Jan-           Jul-       Jan-       Jul-     Jan-        Jul-        Jan-         Jul-
                                                                                                      07           07       08           08             09             09         10         10       11          11          12           12
       6




       7




       8




       9




       0




       1




       2
      06




      07




      08




      09




      10




      11
    -0




    -0




    -0




    -0




    -1




    -1




    -1
   p-




   p-




   p-




   p-




   p-




   p-
  ar




  ar




  ar




  ar




  ar




  ar




  ar
 Se




 Se




 Se




 Se




 Se




 Se
 M




 M




 M




 M




 M




 M




 M




                                                                                                                                             US                         China                        Eurozone
                                     China           Korea           Japan



                                                                                             Fig 20 China Industrial Production – remains at c.9%
Fig 19         China PMI breakdown                                                           for a fourth consecutive month (avg. 15% 2005-11)

                                                                                             % (Y-o-Y)
                                          China PMI                                                                                          China Industrial Production
 65                                                                                           25

 60
                                                                                              20
 55

 50                                                                                           15

 45
                                                                                              10
 40

 35                                                                                            5
   Jan-      Jul-   Jan-   Jul-    Jan-    Jul-   Jan-   Jul-    Jan-   Jul-   Jan-   Jul-
    07        07     08     08      09      09     10     10      11     11     12     12
                                                                                               0
                    New Export Orders                           Finished Goods                 Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun-
                    Raw Materials                                                                06  07   07   08   08   09   09   10   10   11   11   12
Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                      Asia Oil & Gas




Fig 21       China consumer confidence index                                                             Fig 22       China real estate climate index

                        China consumer confidence index                                                                                 China Real Estate Climate Index
                                                                                                            110
    115.0
                                                                                                            108

    110.0                                                                                                   106
                                                                                                            104
    105.0                                                                                                   102
                                                                                                            100
    100.0
                                                                                                             98
     95.0                                                                                                    96
                                                                                                             94
     90.0
                                                                                                             92
     85.0                                                                                                    90
         Jan-    Jul-    Jan-    Jul-    Jan-    Jul-    Jan-    Jul-    Jan-   Jul-    Jan-   Jul-            Jan-     Jul-    Jan-     Jul-    Jan-   Jul-   Jan-   Jul-    Jan-    Jul-     Jan-   Jul-
          07      07      08      08      09      09      10      10      11     11      12     12              07       07      08       08      09     09     10     10      11      11       12     12



                                                                                                         Fig 24 Taiwan computers and electronics
Fig 23       China textile production                                                                    manufacturing index

   Y-o-Y %
                                China Textile Production                                                      Index            Taiwan Computers & Electronics
  30.0
                                                                                                           (2006=100)               Manufacturing Index
  25.0                                                                                                    180

  20.0                                                                                                    160
                                                                                                          140
  15.0
                                                                                                          120
  10.0
                                                                                                          100
   5.0
                                                                                                           80
   0.0
                                                                                                           60
  -5.0                                                                                                     40
 -10.0                                                                                                     20
      Jan-      Apr-     Jul-    Oct-     Jan-     Apr-        Jul-     Oct-    Jan-    Apr-      Jul-
                                                                                                            0
       10        10       10      10       11       11          11       11      12      12        12
                                                                                                             Jan-     Jul-     Jan-     Jul-     Jan-   Jul-   Jan-    Jul-    Jan-     Jul-     Jan-     Jul-
                       Yarn             Cloth                  Garment                Polyester               07       07       08       08       09     09     10      10      11       11       12       12



Fig 25       China passenger car sales                                                                   Fig 26       China tyre output

     mn                                                                                                         mn
                              China Passenger Car Sales                                                                                         China Tyre Output
    1.8                                                                                                     90.0
    1.6                                                                                                     80.0
    1.4                                                                                                     70.0
    1.2                                                                                                     60.0
    1.0                                                                                                     50.0
    0.8                                                                                                     40.0
    0.6                                                                                                     30.0
    0.4                                                                                                     20.0
    0.2                                                                                                     10.0
    0.0                                                                                                      0.0
       Jan      Feb     Mar     Apr     May     Jun      Jul     Aug    Sept    Oct     Nov    Dec              Jan     Feb     Mar      Apr     May    Jun    Jul    Aug     Sept    Oct      Nov    Dec

                                                  7Y Range                         Avg (2005-11)
                                                                                                                                      7Y Range            Avg (2005-11)              2011               2012
                 2010                             2011                             2012

Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                8
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Asia Oil & Gas




                                                                                         Oil – Commitment of Traders (COT) Summary

Fig 27                Fund Net Positions vs. Oil Price                                                                                           Fig 28                Hedge Net Positions vs. Oil Price

          (klots)                          Fund Net Positions vs. Oil Price                                                      ($/bbl)               (klots)                               Hedge Net Positions vs. Oil Price                                                                                                   WTI $/bbl
    400                                                                                                                                    160       100                                                                                                                                                                                  120
    350                                                                                                                                    140
    300                                                                                                                                                0                                                                                                                                                                                  100
                                                                                                                                           120
    250
                                                                                                                                                     -100                                                                                                                                                                                 80
    200                                                                                                                                    100
    150                                                                                                                                    80        -200                                                                                                                                                                                 60
    100                                                                                                                                    60
     50                                                                                                                                              -300                                                                                                                                                                                 40
                                                                                                                                           40
      0
                                                                                                                                                     -400                                                                                                                                                                                 20
     -50                                                                                                                                   20
    -100                                                                                                                                   0         -500                                                                                                                                                                                 0




                                                                                                                                                                                    May-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       May-12
             Jan-01

                         Jan-02

                                     Jan-03

                                                Jan-04

                                                           Jan-05

                                                                      Jan-06

                                                                                Jan-07

                                                                                          Jan-08

                                                                                                    Jan-09

                                                                                                             Jan-10

                                                                                                                        Jan-11

                                                                                                                                  Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                            Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-12
                               Speculators (LHS)                                          Oil Price (RHS)                                                                                             Hedge Net Positions (LHS)                                                                    WTI (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Fund                                                                                Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Hedge
category covers large speculators or CFTC’s “non-commercial positions”                                                                           category covers oil industry traders or CFTC’s “commercial positions”




Fig 29                Small Speculators Net Positions vs. Oil Price                                                                              Fig 30                Open Interest (futures + options) vs. Oil Price

                      Small Speculators Net Positions vs. Oil Price                                                                                                  Open Interest
                                                                                                                                                    3,500                                                                                                                                                           WTI $/bbl             160
                                                                                                                          WTI ($/bbl)
    90Speculators Net                                                                                                                      175                          (klots)
                                                                                                                                                    3,000                                                                                                                                                                                 140
       Position (klots)
    60                                                                                                                                     140                                                                                                                                                                                            120
                                                                                                                                                    2,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100
    30                                                                                                                                     105      2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          80
                                                                                                                                                    1,500
     0                                                                                                                                     70                                                                                                                                                                                             60
                                                                                                                                                    1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          40
    -30                                                                                                                                    35
                                                                                                                                                      500                                                                                                                                                                                 20

    -60                                                                                                                                    0            0                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                              Jan-01

                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-02

                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-03

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-12
          Jan-01

                      Jan-02

                                  Jan-03

                                              Jan-04

                                                         Jan-05

                                                                    Jan-06

                                                                               Jan-07

                                                                                         Jan-08

                                                                                                   Jan-09

                                                                                                             Jan-10

                                                                                                                       Jan-11

                                                                                                                                  Jan-12




                                              Speculators (Net Position)                                              WTI (RHS)                                                                       Open Interest                                                                 WTI (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Fund                                                                                Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
category covers small speculators or CFTC’s “non-reportable positions”




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9
30 January 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Macquarie Research
                  Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations
                  Fig 31       Asia Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation
                  Macquarie Research
                  Asia Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics                                                                                                                       21 September 12
                                                           Market
                  Company              Local     Price        Mcap      Reco.         Target     Upside   EV/EBITDA Ratio        P/E Ratio          P/B Ratio       Dividend Yield      FCF Yield          ROACE            Gearing
                                       Curr     (local)     (US$ bn)                  Price               2012E     2013E    2012E      2013E    2012E     2013E   2012E     2013E   2012E    2013E    2012E   2013E    2012E     2013E
                  HANG SENG INDEX               20,626        1,551                                                          10.1 x      9.1 x
                  PetroChina           HKD        10.0        240.3   Outperform       12.0      +19.8%    5.3 x     5.0 x   10.8 x      8.7 x   1.3 x     1.2 x   3.9%       4.8%   -8.9%     4.3%    10.2%   10.6%    27.0%     26.0%
                  Sinopec              HKD         7.1        80.3     Neutral         7.1       +0.6%     4.1 x     3.2 x    9.2 x      6.5 x   1.0 x     0.9 x   2.7%       3.8%   -9.0%     4.8%     9.5%   11.7%    28.1%     26.2%
                  CNOOC                HKD        15.7        90.6    Outperform       21.0      +33.4%    4.4 x     4.1 x    8.0 x      7.6 x   1.7 x     1.5 x   2.0%       3.1%    3.7%     4.0%    20.4%   18.3%     8.6%      5.5%
                  COSL                 HKD        13.4         7.8   Underperform      10.4      -22.5%    7.4 x     6.9 x   10.1 x      9.1 x   1.5 x     1.3 x   1.7%       2.1%    4.9%     8.9%     9.1%    9.4%    36.3%     29.3%
                  Kunlun Energy        HKD        13.6        14.2    Outperform       14.5      +6.6%     6.5 x     6.0 x   14.9 x     13.5 x   3.2 x     2.6 x   1.7%       1.8%   -7.1%     2.3%    14.4%   14.4%    14.0%     10.1%
                  Anton                HKD         1.9         0.5    Not Rated        NM          NM      8.9 x     7.0 x   15.7 x     11.2 x

                  ASX INDEX                     4,381.1     1,139.6                                                          11.7 x     10.8 x
                  Woodside             AUD        33.8        29.5      Neutral        37.5      +11.0%   8.2 x      7.1 x   16.5 x     15.5 x   2.0 x     1.9 x   3.7%       4.1%     5.5%    10.0%    9.8%   10.1%    12.4%      5.6%
                  Santos               AUD        11.4        11.5     Outperform     16.00      +40.8%   5.6 x      4.8 x   20.2 x     17.8 x   1.2 x     1.1 x   2.6%       2.6%   -18.4%   -18.4%    5.2%    5.3%     8.8%     24.9%
                  Oil Search           AUD         7.4        10.6     Outperform      9.0       +21.5%   23.7 x    24.7 x   76.2 x     73.2 x   3.3 x     3.2 x   0.5%       0.5%    -5.1%    1.2%     2.7%    2.4%    43.4%     45.5%
                  Caltex               AUD        15.5         4.4      Neutral        16.0      +3.1%    7.3 x      6.2 x   12.6 x     10.9 x   2.1 x     1.8 x   2.0%       2.5%    -0.4%    1.8%    13.5%   14.1%    29.3%     26.5%

                  BSE SENSEX INDEX             18,752.8      581.0                                                           13.1 x     11.9 x
                  RIL                  INR      850.3        51.4       Neutral       759.0      -10.7%   7.9 x      7.5 x   11.8 x     11.7 x   1.4 x     1.3 x   1.1%       1.1%    18.1%    1.5%     9.7%    9.3%     19.8%     16.2%
                  ONGC                 INR      294.5        46.9      Outperform     325.0      +10.4%   3.8 x      4.4 x    9.5 x      9.6 x   2.0 x     1.9 x   3.3%       3.4%    6.2%     5.7%    19.9%   18.5%    -16.2%    -18.1%
                  IOCL                 INR      252.7        11.5      Outperform     333.0      +31.8%   4.6 x      5.3 x    5.2 x      8.1 x   1.0 x     0.9 x   2.3%       1.5%    21.6%    27.0%   15.4%    9.6%     41.0%     29.7%
                  Cairn India          INR      349.7        12.5       Neutral       322.0       -7.9%   6.3 x      5.5 x    8.7 x      8.5 x   1.3 x     1.2 x   0.0%       2.6%    3.6%     4.6%    16.4%   14.7%    -11.9%    -20.7%
                  BPCL                 INR      347.3         2.3      Outperform     457.0      +31.6%   12.4 x     7.9 x   30.3 x     12.1 x   1.6 x     1.6 x   1.9%       2.1%   -59.7%   -34.7%    6.9%    9.8%     65.0%     66.0%
                  HPCL                 INR      299.0         1.9      Outperform     412.0      +37.8%   10.9 x     6.4 x   69.1 x      6.5 x   0.8 x     0.7 x   3.3%       5.2%   -51.7%    14.9%    5.5%   10.7%     72.7%     70.1%
                  Petronet LNG         INR      165.1         2.3     Underperform    122.0      -26.1%   9.0 x      8.3 x   11.5 x     11.3 x   3.4 x     2.7 x   1.8%       1.9%    1.7%    -23.8%   19.8%   16.7%     36.8%     52.7%
                  Aban Offshore        INR      430.4         0.3     Underperform    315.0      -26.8%   7.3 x      5.7 x    7.2 x      6.2 x   0.8 x     0.7 x   0.8%       0.8%    20.2%    28.3%    8.3%    9.5%     83.5%     81.3%

                  SET INDEX                     1,286.3      340.3                                                           11.7 x     10.4 x
                  PTT                  THB       337.0       31.3      Outperform     409.0      +21.4%    4.3 x     3.7 x    7.5 x      6.4 x   1.5 x     1.3 x   4.5%       5.3%    5.4%     8.3%    15.7%   16.7%    26.1%     21.8%
                  PTT E&P              THB       158.0       17.0       Neutral       165.0      +4.4%     4.2 x     3.5 x    9.7 x      8.5 x   2.1 x     1.8 x   3.6%       3.9%   -0.4%     4.2%    16.9%   17.6%    25.5%     22.7%
                  PTT Global Chem      THB        64.3        9.4      Outperform      79.0      +23.0%    6.8 x     6.3 x    8.2 x      8.1 x   1.3 x     1.2 x   4.2%       4.7%    5.3%     9.4%    11.9%   11.9%    29.8%     26.1%
                  Thai Oil             THB        67.0        4.4       Neutral        66.0       -1.5%    7.5 x     6.1 x   12.3 x      9.0 x   1.6 x     1.4 x   3.6%       5.0%    8.0%     8.1%     9.9%   12.2%    18.6%     14.2%
                  Bangchak Petro.      THB        24.6        1.1     Underperform     18.1      -26.4%    4.6 x     4.5 x    6.6 x      7.7 x   1.0 x     0.9 x   4.2%       4.9%   13.7%    -10.8%   12.6%   11.4%     6.4%     22.7%

                  NIKKEI INDEX                  9,033.3     2,217.0                                                          12.7 x     10.6 x
                  Inpex Corp           JPY     479,000.0      22.3     Outperform    720,000.0   +50.3%    2.0 x     2.1 x   18.6 x     10.1 x   0.7 x     0.9 x   1.4%       1.4%   -2.0%     -1.4%   5.0%     8.2%     1.6%     10.1%
                  JX Holdings          JPY       433.0        13.9     Outperform      600.0     +38.6%    4.1 x     5.4 x    4.5 x     10.6 x   0.6 x     0.6 x   3.7%       3.7%    7.4%    -13.5%   8.0%     3.9%    40.4%     43.1%
                  Japan Petro. Expln   JPY      3,165.0        2.3     Outperform     4,600.0    +45.3%    4.4 x     4.9 x   10.3 x     11.3 x   0.4 x     0.4 x   1.3%       1.3%    7.3%    -12.3%   4.1%     3.7%    -0.9%      4.8%

                  TWSE Index                    7,722.9      723.3                                                           14.1 x     12.4 x
                  FPCC                 TWD        87.5       28.7     Underperform     65.0      -25.7%   26.2 x    16.8 x   250.3 x    44.9 x   3.8 x     3.6 x   0.5%       1.9%   3.0%      2.7%    1.6%     5.3%    42.0%     37.2%
                  FPC                  TWD        82.8       17.5       Neutral        68.5      -17.3%   17.2 x    15.0 x    28.7 x    21.6 x   2.1 x     2.0 x   2.5%       3.1%   5.1%      2.7%    5.9%     7.6%     4.3%      5.8%
                  NPC                  TWD        57.6       15.7       Neutral        50.0      -13.2%   28.5 x    14.9 x    56.0 x    19.3 x   1.7 x     1.6 x   1.2%       3.5%   5.1%      4.2%    2.6%     6.5%    20.5%     17.5%
                  FCFC                 TWD        77.7       15.3     Underperform     56.5      -27.3%   19.3 x    13.3 x    38.2 x    20.0 x   1.8 x     1.7 x   1.7%       3.3%   2.9%      4.6%    3.8%     6.6%    14.0%     11.3%

                  KOSPI INDEX                    1,981.8    1,002.5                                                          9.3 x      8.1 x
                  SK Innovation        KRW     164,000.0      13.9     Outperform    222,000.0   +35.4%   6.9 x      6.5 x   10.2 x      7.6 x   1.0 x     0.9 x   1.7%       1.7%     6.3%     3.7%    7.6%    8.9%    19.6%     14.9%
                  S-Oil                KRW     103,000.0      10.6      Neutral      105,000.0   +1.9%    9.8 x      7.7 x   13.0 x      8.8 x   2.2 x     1.9 x   2.8%       4.3%     9.7%    14.1%   10.6%   14.5%    28.7%     14.6%
                  GS Holdings          KRW      65,000.0       5.5      Neutral       67,000.0   +3.1%    6.0 x      4.8 x    9.3 x      7.4 x   0.9 x     0.8 x   2.1%       2.2%    13.1%    10.6%    8.3%    9.3%    14.6%      4.8%
                  Honam                KRW     255,000.0       7.5     Outperform    320,000.0   +25.5%   8.0 x      5.0 x   16.7 x      8.7 x   1.4 x     1.2 x   0.7%       0.7%    -3.7%     6.6%    7.0%   12.2%    11.2%      4.1%
                  LG Chem              KRW     323,000.0      19.5     Outperform    400,000.0   +23.8%   8.0 x      6.6 x   14.0 x     11.1 x   2.1 x     1.8 x   1.2%       1.2%     2.8%     0.4%   13.1%   14.5%     6.9%      7.1%
                  Hanwha Chem          KRW      21,850.0       2.8      Neutral       20,000.0    -8.5%   11.5 x     7.6 x   21.9 x      8.9 x   0.8 x     0.7 x   2.0%       2.0%   -18.4%    -9.3%    2.8%    5.3%    49.6%     49.0%

                  HK/China                                   433.7                               +17.9%    5.0 x    4.6 x     10.1 x     8.2 x   1.4 x     1.2 x   3.1%       4.1%   -6.0%      4.3%   12.3%   12.5%    23.1%     21.3%
                  Australia                                  56.0                                +18.5%   10.5 x    9.9 x     28.2 x    26.5 x   2.1 x     2.0 x   2.8%       3.0%   -1.9%      1.9%   7.8%    8.0%     18.8%     18.7%
                  India                                      129.1                               +2.1%     6.1 x    6.0 x     11.3 x    10.2 x   1.6 x     1.5 x   2.0%       2.2%   10.0%      4.8%   14.6%   13.4%     7.6%      3.9%
                  Thailand                                   63.2                                +14.6%    4.9 x    4.2 x     8.5 x      7.4 x   1.6 x     1.4 x   4.1%       4.8%    4.1%      7.0%   15.0%   15.8%    25.6%     22.1%
                  Japan                                      38.5                                +45.8%    2.9 x    3.4 x     13.0 x    10.4 x   0.7 x     0.7 x   2.2%       2.2%    2.0%     -6.4%   6.0%    6.4%     15.4%     21.6%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Asia Oil & Gas
                  Taiwan                                     77.2                                -21.6%   23.3 x    15.3 x   118.5 x    29.4 x   2.6 x     2.5 x   1.3%       2.8%    3.9%      3.4%   3.2%    6.4%     23.5%     20.9%
                  Korea                                      30.0                                +17.7%    8.1 x    6.5 x     13.2 x     9.1 x   1.6 x     1.4 x   1.7%       1.9%    4.0%      4.9%   9.7%    12.0%    17.0%     11.6%
                  APAC                                       827.7                               +12.8%    7.3 x    6.1 x     21.7 x    11.8 x   1.6 x     1.4 x   2.7%       3.5%   -0.8%      3.9%   11.3%   11.7%    20.1%     18.1%

                  Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
10
30 January 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Macquarie Research
                  Fig 32       Asia Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus
                  Macquarie Research
                  Asia Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics                                                                                                                      21 September 12

                  Company              Local    Price     Target    Upside               Absolute Performance                          EPS (local)               EPS growth      Cons EPS (local)     Macq. vs. Cons    Cons.     Macq. vs.
                                       Curr    (local)     Price               1M       3M       6M         1Y       YTD     2011A       2012E       2013E     2012E    2013E    2012E     2013E     2012E     2013E      TP       Cons.
                  HANG SENG INDEX                                             +3.2%    +7.6%    -0.6%     +10.2%    +12.5%
                  PetroChina           HKD      10.02      12.0     +19.8%   +3.2%     -2.7%    -8.8%     +7.7%     +5.3%       0.73        0.71        0.88    -2.1%   +23.7%      0.75      0.83   -5.3%     +6.2%     11.4        5.5%
                  Sinopec              HKD       7.06       7.1     +0.6%     -3.2%   +2.6%    -16.7%      -5.2%    -12.1%      0.85        0.62        0.88   -26.6%   +41.3%      0.69      0.86   -9.4%     +2.8%      8.1      -12.2%
                  CNOOC                HKD      15.74      21.0     +33.4%   +4.2%    +5.1%     -5.9%    +21.5%    +15.9%       1.57        1.49        1.58    -5.1%   +6.0%       1.45      1.44   +3.1%     +9.8%     17.2       21.8%
                  COSL                 HKD      13.42      10.4     -22.5%   +6.0%    +20.9%   +16.5%    +32.7%     +9.3%       0.90        1.05        1.16   +16.9%   +10.8%      1.03      1.17   +1.7%     -0.1%     14.5      -28.5%
                  Kunlun Energy        HKD      13.60      14.5     +6.6%    +4.9%    +8.2%     -1.4%    +23.4%    +23.9%       0.78        0.91        1.01   +16.6%   +10.4%      0.90      1.06   +1.2%     -5.1%     16.0       -9.5%
                  Anton                HKD       1.86      NM         NM     +18.8%   +63.8%   +91.9%    +134.6%   +120.9%                                                          0.10      0.14                        2.2

                  ASX INDEX                                                  +0.6%     +7.8%    +3.6%      +8.3%    +8.7%
                  Woodside             AUD      33.78      37.5     +11.0%   -5.1%    +6.5%     -2.1%     +1.4%    +11.5%       2.09        2.20        2.35   +5.7%    +6.6%       2.52      2.66   -12.4%   -11.6%     39.0      -3.9%
                  Santos               AUD      11.36      16.00    +40.8%   -4.7%     -0.7%   -20.1%     +0.0%     -6.1%       0.50        0.58        0.69   +14.0%   +19.5%      0.61      0.59    -5.8%   +16.4%     15.0       6.4%
                  Oil Search           AUD       7.41       9.0     +21.5%   +5.7%    +14.9%   +9.4%      +26.2%   +21.1%       0.18        0.10        0.11   -41.3%   +4.7%       0.13      0.12   -17.9%   -11.3%      8.7       3.1%
                  Caltex               AUD      15.52      16.0     +3.1%    +1.3%    +19.5%   +12.5%     +47.3%   +33.6%       0.98        1.29        1.55   +32.3%   +19.5%      1.35      1.35    -4.0%   +15.0%     14.9       7.3%

                  BSE SENSEX INDEX                                            +4.9%   +10.1%    +6.5%      +9.9%   +21.3%
                  RIL                  INR     850.30      759.0    -10.7%   +4.4%    +18.3%   +10.7%     +1.5%    +22.7%      73.80       66.75       67.54    -9.6%   +1.2%      62.29     67.07   +7.2%    +0.7%      798.2      -4.9%
                  ONGC                 INR     294.50      325.0    +10.4%   +2.6%    +7.0%    +8.5%      +12.8%   +14.8%      10.31       29.22       29.61     NM     +1.3%      30.65     33.03    -4.7%   -10.4%     312.2       4.1%
                  IOCL                 INR     252.70      333.0    +31.8%   +0.3%     -3.5%    -6.6%     -18.0%    -0.4%      32.25       49.15       31.29   +52.4%   -36.3%     29.31     33.25   +67.7%    -5.9%     294.3      13.2%
                  Cairn India          INR     349.65      322.0     -7.9%   +5.4%    +7.2%     -2.0%     +17.3%   +11.3%      33.04       39.13       40.24   +18.4%   +2.8%      54.48     50.34   -28.2%   -20.1%     373.2     -13.7%
                  BPCL                 INR     347.30      457.0    +31.6%   +2.5%     -9.0%    -0.1%     +4.7%    +45.4%      22.61       11.53       28.94   -49.0%     NM       20.26     24.85   -43.1%   +16.4%     392.7      16.4%
                  HPCL                 INR     299.00      412.0    +37.8%    -4.2%   -11.0%   +0.6%      -19.2%   +18.2%      51.22        4.50       47.53   -91.2%     NM       32.19     43.04   -86.0%   +10.4%     346.9      18.8%
                  Petronet LNG         INR     165.10      122.0    -26.1%   +10.0%   +21.2%   +2.2%       -7.2%   +6.0%        8.26       14.10       14.24   +70.7%   +1.0%      14.08     15.13   +0.1%     -5.9%     173.7     -29.8%
                  Aban Offshore        INR     430.40      315.0    -26.8%   +1.5%    +22.0%    -8.4%     +10.2%   +25.6%     107.26       58.52       68.58   -45.4%   +17.2%     81.94     85.54   -28.6%   -19.8%     447.0     -29.5%

                  SET INDEX                                                  +4.4%    +11.0%     +6.5%    +24.9%   +25.4%
                  PTT                  THB     337.00      409.0    +21.4%   -1.2%    +5.0%      -4.8%    +8.0%    +6.0%       36.86       43.68       51.47   +18.5%   +17.8%     38.82     43.79   +12.5%   +17.5%     378.0       8.2%
                  PTT E&P              THB     158.00      165.0    +4.4%    +3.6%     -6.5%    -11.2%     -2.8%    -6.2%      13.63       15.54       17.62   +14.0%   +13.4%     15.93     17.96    -2.4%    -1.9%     171.6      -3.8%
                  PTT Global Chem      THB      64.25      79.0     +23.0%   +0.0%    +14.2%    -11.4%    +19.0%   +5.3%        4.05        7.41        7.57     NM     +2.2%       6.39      7.27   +16.0%   +4.2%       71.1      11.1%
                  Thai Oil             THB      67.00      66.0      -1.5%   -0.4%    +13.6%     -7.6%    +11.2%   +14.5%       7.45        5.44        7.41   -27.0%   +36.2%      7.40      6.59   -26.4%   +12.5%      69.1      -4.5%
                  Bangchak Petro.      THB      24.60      18.1     -26.4%   +7.0%    +5.1%     +5.6%     +20.6%   +30.2%       5.40        3.54        3.02   -34.4%   -14.7%      2.68      3.33   +32.1%    -9.2%      24.4     -25.9%

                  NIKKEI INDEX                                               -0.5%    +3.2%      -9.7%    +4.2%    +7.7%
                  Inpex Corp           JPY     479,000    720,000   +50.3%   +2.1%    +5.3%     -13.2%    -3.8%    +0.7%      37,355      23,971      43,979   -35.8%   +83.5%    48,497    42,135   -50.6%    +4.4%    709,273     1.5%
                  JX Holdings          JPY      433.00     600.0    +38.6%   +5.8%    +5.3%     -16.8%    -4.6%    -6.5%      127.50       89.70       38.16   -29.6%   -57.5%     43.15     64.54     NM      -40.9%    533.8     12.4%
                  Japan Petro. Expln   JPY     3,165.00   4,600.0   +45.3%   -0.2%    +2.9%     -18.5%    +3.9%    +6.1%      248.07      292.49      264.31   +17.9%    -9.6%    286.22    290.00   +2.2%      -8.9%   4,121.4    11.6%

                  TWSE Index                                                 +3.3%    +6.5%      -2.8%     +2.9%   +9.7%
                  FPCC                 TWD      87.50      65.0     -25.7%   -2.6%    +6.9%      -5.1%    +4.3%    -5.9%        2.00        0.34        1.87   -83.2%     NM        1.43      3.39   -76.6%    -44.8%    72.4      -10.3%
                  FPC                  TWD      82.80      68.5     -17.3%   -0.5%    +4.9%      -3.9%    +1.5%    +3.6%        5.73        2.85        3.80   -50.2%   +33.2%      3.94      5.50   -27.5%    -30.9%    79.8      -14.1%
                  NPC                  TWD      57.60      50.0     -13.2%   -0.5%    +4.6%     -10.4%    -14.2%   -2.3%        2.87        0.98        2.85   -65.8%     NM        1.87      3.40   -47.6%    -16.3%    54.9       -9.0%
                  FCFC                 TWD      77.70      56.5     -27.3%   -3.7%    -0.8%      -6.6%     -4.1%   -1.1%        5.68        1.99        3.80   -64.9%   +90.9%      3.32      5.25   -40.0%    -27.6%    76.4      -26.0%

                  KOSPI INDEX                                                +3.0%     +6.0%     -1.2%     +8.0%    +9.7%
                  SK Innovation        KRW     164,000    222,000   +35.4%   +0.0%    +16.6%     -1.5%     -0.9%   +18.7%     33,778      16,521      22,020   -51.1%   +33.3%    18,077    21,169    -8.6%   +4.0%     195,900     13.3%
                  S-Oil                KRW     103,000    105,000   +1.9%    -2.8%    +12.2%    -11.0%    -13.9%   +5.0%      10,158       8,090      11,971   -20.4%   +48.0%     8,794    11,392    -8.0%   +5.1%     119,552    -12.2%
                  GS Holdings          KRW      65,000     67,000   +3.1%    +2.2%    +20.1%    +2.3%      -6.6%   +30.6%      8,143       7,210       9,150   -11.5%   +26.9%     6,774     8,384   +6.4%    +9.1%      73,970     -9.4%
                  Honam                KRW     255,000    320,000   +25.5%   +2.9%    +11.2%    -16.1%    -28.5%   -11.9%     31,081      14,602      28,107   -53.0%   +92.5%    24,155    35,269   -39.5%   -20.3%    296,586      7.9%
                  LG Chem              KRW     323,000    400,000   +23.8%   +3.1%    +14.2%    -10.5%     -6.3%   +3.8%      28,512      21,971      27,692   -22.9%   +26.0%    26,688    33,405   -17.7%   -17.1%    383,185      4.4%
                  Hanwha Chem          KRW      21,850     20,000    -8.5%   +3.2%    +6.4%     -15.3%    -27.7%    -8.5%      1,789         936       2,298   -47.7%     NM       1,816     1,720   -48.5%   +33.6%     21,529     -7.1%

                  HK/China                                          +17.9%   +2.4%    +0.8%      -8.8%    +9.3%    +5.1%                                        -6.3%   +22.6%                        -4.0%    +5.9%               +4.5%
                  Australia                                         +18.5%   -2.5%    +7.6%      -2.5%    +9.4%    +11.5%                                      +0.6%    +9.9%                        -11.4%     -3.7%              +0.4%
                  India                                             +2.1%    +3.4%    +10.3%    +6.6%     +5.0%    +16.7%                                      +1.5%     -1.9%                       +2.3%      -5.7%               -0.7%
                  Thailand                                          +14.6%   +0.5%    +3.9%      -7.5%    +7.2%    +3.6%                                       +10.4%   +15.0%                       +6.6%     +9.5%               +3.9%
                  Japan                                             +45.8%   +3.3%    +5.2%     -14.8%     -3.6%    -1.5%                                      -30.3%   +27.0%                       -29.1%    -12.7%              +6.1%
                  Taiwan                                            -21.6%   -1.9%    +4.5%      -6.2%     -1.8%    -2.1%                                      -68.6%   +25.6%                       -52.3%    -32.4%              -14.0%
                  Korea                                             +19.4%   +1.2%    +14.2%     -8.2%    -10.2%   +7.4%                                       -32.9%   +38.8%                       -15.8%     -3.9%              +2.2%
                  APAC                                              +12.9%   +1.7%    +4.0%      -5.9%    +6.1%    +6.3%                                       -11.2%   +18.4%                        -8.8%     -1.1%              +1.6%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Asia Oil & Gas
                  Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012
11
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Asia Oil & Gas




                                                                                                               Crude Oil Price & Differentials
Fig 33               Global crude benchmarks                                                                                                                                                          Fig 34                Crude Differentials

      $/bbl                                                                                                                                                                                                  $/bbl
                                                                      China Crude Basket                                                                                                                                                                          Crude differentials
    140                                                                                                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                                                                                                                           25
    125
                                                                                                                                                                                                           20
    110
                                                                                                                                                                                                           15
    95                                                                                                                                                                                                     10

                                                                                                                                                                                                            5
    80
                                                                                                                                                                                                            0
    65
                                                                                                                                                                                                           -5
    50                                                                                                                                                                                                    -10
          Dec-09
                      Feb-10

                                 Apr-10

                                          Jun-10

                                                    Aug-10

                                                             Oct-10

                                                                       Dec-10
                                                                                   Feb-11

                                                                                                 Apr-11

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                                                                                                                                                      Dec-11
                                                                                                                                                               Feb-12

                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-12

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                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Feb-10

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-10

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Aug-12
                   Brent                           Dubai                           Cinta                                        WTI                            China Crude Basket                                        Brent-Urals                          Duri-Brent                             Arab Light-Heavy                                      Brent-WTI




Fig 35                  Brent forward curve at c.$95-100/bbl long-term                                                                                                                                Fig 36                Crude price summary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               21-                        14-                  3Q12T                                                 Q/Q
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2Q12
    ($/bbl)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sept                       Sept                    D                                                   %chg
                                                             Brent Forward Curve
    150.0                                                                                                                                                                                              Brent ($/bbl)                                          111.9                      115.8                  109.6                    108.6                       1%

    125.0                                                                                                                                                                                              Dubai ($/bbl)                                          109.7                      113.8                  105.8                    106.0                       0%

    100.0                                                                                                                                                                                              WTI ($/bbl)                                             93.7                      97.6                        92.1                  93.1                      -1%

      75.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Duri ($/bbl)                                           112.0                      116.1                  112.3                    112.0                       0%

      50.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Minas ($/bbl)                                          113.8                      117.9                  113.2                    113.1                       0%
      25.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Duri - Brent ($/bbl)                                      0.1                      0.2                        2.7                     3.4                     -22%
                   Jan-08

                               Jul-08

                                          Jan-09

                                                    Jul-09

                                                              Jan-10

                                                                          Jul-10

                                                                                        Jan-11

                                                                                                          Jul-11

                                                                                                                            Jan-12

                                                                                                                                         Jul-12

                                                                                                                                                     Jan-13

                                                                                                                                                               Jul-13

                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-14

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-14




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Arab Light - Heavy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2.8                      2.8                        2.5                     3.2                     -23%
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ($/bbl)
                                Spot                                                                                                      T-1 month
                                T-3 months                                                                                                T-1 year                                                     Brent - WTI ($/bbl)                                     18.2                      18.2                        17.4                  15.5                      13%
                                At 2008 peak ($145/bbl)                                                                                   At 2008 trough ($35/bbl)

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012.




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             12
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Asia Oil & Gas




Asia Refining Margins & Cracks
Fig 37 China GRM’s – underlying spot margins turn
above EBIT breakeven                                                                                                                                                       Fig 38                     MacQ China GRM vs. Sinopec GRM

      ($/bbl)                                                                                                                                                                   Rmb/t
                                                                 MacQ China GRM                                                                                                                                     MacQ China GRM vs Sinopec Reported
    20.0                                                                                                                                                                       800


    12.0                                                                                                                                                                       400


     4.0                                                                                                                                                                            0


     -4.0                                                                                                                                                                      -400


    -12.0                                                                                                                                                                      -800


                                                                                                                                                                              -1200
    -20.0




                                                                                                                                                                                              1Q07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                    3Q07


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1Q08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3Q08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3Q09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1Q10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3Q10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1Q11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3Q11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1Q12
                                                                    May
                                           Mar
             Jan

                            Feb




                                                        Apr




                                                                                   Jun




                                                                                                              Aug

                                                                                                                          Sep

                                                                                                                                         Oct

                                                                                                                                                        Nov

                                                                                                                                                                  Dec
                                                                                                  Jul




                       MQ China GRM                                                  5Y Range                                                       5Y Ave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   MQ China GRM                                               Sinopec Reported GRM
                       2011                                                          2012                                                           Fwd Margin



Fig 39             China regulated ex-factory product price vs.
Dubai                                                                                                                                                                      Fig 40                 Diesel Price: China ex-factory vs. Singapore

      $/bbl
                                                 Crude vs Regulated Pdt Price                                                                                                                                  China (ex-factory) vs S'pore Diesel Prices
    150
                                                                                                                                                                                $/bbl
                                                                                                                                                                              150
    120
                                                                                                                                                                              130

                                                                                                                                                                              110
     90
                                                                                                                                                                               90

     60                                                                                                                                                                        70

                                                                                                                                                                               50

     30                                                                                                                                                                        30
          Jan-06
          Apr-06
           Jul-06
          Oct-06
          Jan-07
          Apr-07
           Jul-07
          Oct-07
          Jan-08
          Apr-08
           Jul-08
          Oct-08
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          Jan-11
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          Apr-12
           Jul-12




                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-09

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-12
                                           Gasoline                       Diesel                             Fuel Oil                      Dubai Crude                                                                                           China Diesel                                                  S'pore Diesel (FOB)




Fig 41             China vs. S’pore gasoline price                                                                                                                         Fig 42                 China fuel oil well below Singapore

      $/bbl                                                                                                                                                                           $/bbl
                                            China vs S'pore Gasoline Prices
    150                                                                                                                                                                         140                                                 China vs S'pore Fuel Oil Prices
    130                                                                                                                                                                         120

                                                                                                                                                                                100
    110
                                                                                                                                                                                 80
     90
                                                                                                                                                                                 60
     70
                                                                                                                                                                                 40
     50
                                                                                                                                                                                 20
     30
                                                                                                                                                                                     0
          Jan-09

                   Apr-09

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                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-09

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-12




                                                      China Gasoline                                           S'pore Gasoline (FOB)                                                                                                             China Fuel Oil                                               S'pore Fuel Oil (FOB)

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     13
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Asia Oil & Gas




Fig 43             China product cracks                                                                                                                          Fig 44                   Singapore product cracks

         $/bbl                                                                                                                                                         $/bbl
                                                China Product Cracks                                                                                                                                                                    Singapore Product Cracks
    50                                                                                                                                                               40
                                                                                                                                                                     30
    30
                                                                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                                                                     10
    10
                                                                                                                                                                      0
    -10                                                                                                                                                             -10
                                                                                                                                                                    -20
    -30                                                                                                                                                             -30
                                                                                                                                                                    -40
    -50                                                                                                                                                             -50
                                                                                                                                                                    -60
    -70




                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-09
                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Feb-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Oct-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Feb-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Aug-12
          Jan-06

                   Jul-06

                            Jan-07

                                     Jul-07

                                                Jan-08

                                                               Jul-08

                                                                          Jan-09

                                                                                     Jul-09

                                                                                              Jan-10

                                                                                                       Jul-10

                                                                                                                Jan-11

                                                                                                                          Jul-11

                                                                                                                                         Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                        Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                      LPG                                                                        Naphtha                                                                           Gasoline
                                                         Gasoline                         Diesel                Fuel Oil                                                                              Diesel                                                                     Jet/Kero                                                                          Fuel Oil



Fig 45 Singapore complex GRM – robust and at the
top end of the 5Y range                                                                                                                                          Fig 46                   China vs. Singapore GRM

         ($/bbl)                                                                                                                                                          ($/bbl)
                                              Singapore Complex GRM                                                                                                                                                                    China vs. S'pore GRM
    15                                                                                                                                                                15


    12                                                                                                                                                                10


                                                                                                                                                                       5
     9

                                                                                                                                                                       0
     6

                                                                                                                                                                      -5
     3

                                                                                                                                                                     -10
                                                                                                                                                                                                     May-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-12
                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-12
     0
                                                         May
                              Mar
         Jan

                   Feb




                                          Apr




                                                                        Jun




                                                                                              Aug

                                                                                                         Sep

                                                                                                                    Oct

                                                                                                                                   Nov

                                                                                                                                                  Dec
                                                                                   Jul




                    Sing GRM                                                  5Y Range (07-11)                             5Y Ave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Delta                                 China GRM                                              Singapore GRM
                    2011                                                      2012



Fig 47             Asia refinery maintenance                                                                                                                     Fig 48                   Major Asia CDU additions in 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Capacity
                                                                                                                                                                  Company                          Refinery Type                                                Location                                                                                                        Timing
     (kb/d)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (kb/d)
                                        Asia Refinery Maintenance
    3000                                                                                                                                                          Essar Oil                        CDU expansion                                                Vadinar                                                          80                                       2Q12

    2500                                                                                                                                                          MRPL                             CDU expansion                                                Mangalore                                                        64                                       3Q12

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Grassroots
    2000                                                                                                                                                          HPCL                                                                                          Bhatinda                                                         180                                      2Q12
                                                                                                                                                                                                   refinery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hohhot,Inner
    1500                                                                                                                                                          PetroChina                       CDU expansion                                                                                                                 100                                      3Q12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mongolia

    1000                                                                                                                                                          Sinopec                          CDU expansion                                                Anqing                                                           80                                       4Q12

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Grassroots
                                                                                                                                                                  Sinopec                                                                                       Jinling                                                          160                                      4Q12
     500                                                                                                                                                                                           refinery

                                                                                                                                                                  2012 Total                                                                                                                                                     664
          0
           Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun-                                                 Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
            12   12   12   12   12   12                                                   12   12   12   12   12   12

                                        Range                                  2010                      2011                            2012

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                14
24 September 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                          Macquarie Research
                    China Oil Demand, Production & Imports
                    Fig 49    China Macro Summary
                    Macquarie Research
                    China Crude & Refined Products Summary
                                                                           Month                                                       Quarter                       Year
                                             Jul-12             Jun-12      M-o-M %            Jul-11       Y-o-Y %           2Q12          1Q12    %chg    2011            2010   %chg
                    Apparent Consumption (kb/d)
                    Crude                     9,520             9,086             5%           9,000             6%           9,645        9,806     -2%   9,196       8,918         3%
                    Total Products            9,837             9,011             9%           9,676           1.7%           9,473        9,979     -5%   9,580       9,005         6%
                     Gasoline                 2,075             1,841            13%           1,770            17%           1,901        1,914     -1%   1,792       1,665         8%
                     Diesel                   3,337             3,145             6%           3,394            -2%           3,314        3,438     -4%   3,342       3,113         7%
                     Kerosene                   422               334            27%             341            24%             353          379     -7%     364         349         4%
                     Fuel Oil                   599               544            10%             551             9%             580          650    -11%     604         619        -2%
                     Lubricants                 222               227            -2%             209             7%             242          240      1%     235         232         2%
                     Naphtha                    661               615             8%             588            13%             673          718     -6%     601         611        -2%
                     LPG                        778               767             1%             763             2%             731          739     -1%     745         702         6%
                     Petcoke                    899               824             9%             724            24%             814          781      4%     728         716         2%
                    Natural Gas (bcm)          11.3              11.1             2%            10.8             5%            33.6         41.0    -18%   128.9       105.9        22%
                    Production (kb/d)
                    Crude                        4,194          3,933             7%           4,261           -2%            4,085        4,144     -1%   4,128       4,131         0%
                    Total Products               9,503          8,800             8%           9,474            0%            9,175        9,583     -4%   9,273       8,797         5%
                     Gasoline                    2,112          1,913            10%           1,856           14%            1,951        2,009     -3%   1,886       1,785         6%
                     Diesel                      3,372          3,139             7%           3,400           -1%            3,314        3,433     -3%   3,334       3,170         5%
                     Kerosene                      415            386             8%             395            5%              403          409     -2%     373         341         9%
                     Fuel Oil                      341            322             6%             319            7%              312          317     -2%     342         381       -10%
                     Lubricants                    191            191             0%             177            8%              200          198      1%     194         190         2%
                     Naphtha                       598            591             1%             549            9%              638          639      0%     556         565        -2%
                     LPG                           692            672             3%             699           -1%              677          716     -5%     695         656         6%
                     Petcoke                       712            684             4%             654            9%              695          650      7%     640         614         4%
                    Natural Gas (bcm)               8.3            8.2            1%              8.4          -1%             25.0         33.2    -25%   103.3        93.6        10%
                    Net Imports (kb/d)
                    Crude                        5,326          5,153             3%           4,738            12%           5,560        5,663     -2%   5,067       4,786         6%
                    Total Products                 334            210            59%             202            65%             298          396    -25%     308         207        48%
                      Gasoline                     (36)           (72)            NM             (86)            NM             (49)         (96)    94%     (94)       (121)       29%
                      Diesel                       (35)              6            NM               (5)         -85%                0            5   -98%        8         (57)       NM
                      Kerosene                        7           (52)            NM             (54)            NM             (49)         (29)   -40%       (9)          8        NM
                      Fuel Oil                     258            222            17%             232            11%             268          332    -19%     262         238        10%
                      Lubricants                     31             35          -12%               32           -1%               43           42     3%       41          42       -1%
                      Naphtha                        64             24            NM               39            NM               34           79   -57%       44          46       -4%
                      LPG                            86             94           -9%               64           33%               54           23     NM       50          46        8%
                      Petcoke                      187            139            34%               70            NM             119          131     -9%       88        103       -14%
                    LNG (bcm)                       1.8            1.6           10%              1.6           13%              4.6          4.4     4%    16.6        12.7        31%




                                                                                                                                                                                          Asia Oil & Gas
                    Pipe Gas (bcm)                  1.3            1.3            0%              0.8           56%              4.0          3.3    21%      8.9        (0.4)       NM

                    Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: apparent consumption = production + net imports
15
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Asia Oil & Gas




Fig 50         China apparent consumption y/y%                                                                                                                                                                  Fig 51       China apparent oil product demand – flat y/y

     Y-o-Y %                                                                                                                                                                                                        (kb/d)
                                                             Apparent Consumption                                                                                                                                                              Total Pdts Consumption
    20%                                                                                                                                                                                                            11,500

    15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10,000
    10%

     5%                                                                                                                                                                                                             8,500

     0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7,000
    -5%

   -10%                                                                                                                                                                                                             5,500
   -15%
                                                          May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                     May-12
                                   Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-12
           Jan-11
                       Feb-11


                                               Apr-11


                                                                     Jun-11
                                                                                Jul-11
                                                                                           Aug-11
                                                                                                      Sep-11
                                                                                                                 Oct-11
                                                                                                                           Nov-11
                                                                                                                                     Dec-11
                                                                                                                                               Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                         Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-12


                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan   Feb     Mar   Apr   May    Jun     Jul      Aug   Sep   Oct     Nov Dec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5Y Range                     5Y Ave
                                                                                Crude                    Refined Products                                                                                                               2010                       2011                         2012




Fig 52         China crude oil production y/y%                                                                                                                                                                  Fig 53      China crude oil production – near 2011 levels

     Y-o-Y %                                                                                                                                                                                                        (kb/d)
                                                             Indigenous Production                                                                                                                                                                Crude Production
    20%                                                                                                                                                                                                            4,950

    15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4,600
    10%

     5%                                                                                                                                                                                                            4,250

     0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3,900
    -5%

   -10%                                                                                                                                                                                                            3,550
   -15%
                                                          May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                     May-12
                                   Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-12
           Jan-11
                       Feb-11


                                               Apr-11


                                                                     Jun-11
                                                                                Jul-11
                                                                                           Aug-11
                                                                                                      Sep-11
                                                                                                                 Oct-11
                                                                                                                           Nov-11
                                                                                                                                     Dec-11
                                                                                                                                               Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                         Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-12


                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3,200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr   May   Jun      Jul      Aug   Sep   Oct     Nov    Dec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5Y Range (06-10)               5Y Ave
                                                                                Crude                    Refined Products                                                                                                    2010                           2011                           2012




Fig 54         China crude oil net imports y/y%                                                                                                                                                                 Fig 55      China crude oil net imports – at 5Y highs

     Y-o-Y %                                                                                                                                                                                                        (kb/d)
                                                                                    Net Imports                                                                                                                                                  Crude Net Imports
    100%                                                                                                                                                                                                           6,900


     60%                                                                                                                                                                                                           6,000


     20%                                                                                                                                                                                                           5,100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4,200
    -20%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3,300
    -60%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2,400
   -100%
                                                            May-11




                                                                                                                                                                                     May-12
                                      Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-12
              Jan-11
                          Feb-11


                                                 Apr-11


                                                                       Jun-11
                                                                                  Jul-11
                                                                                             Aug-11
                                                                                                        Sep-11
                                                                                                                  Oct-11
                                                                                                                            Nov-11
                                                                                                                                      Dec-11
                                                                                                                                                Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                          Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-12


                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr   May   Jun      Jul      Aug   Sep   Oct     Nov    Dec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5Y Range (06-10)               5Y Ave
                                                                                Crude                      Refined Products                                                                                                  2010                           2011                           2012


Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              16
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Asia Oil & Gas




                                                                                                                                                                                                  Fig 57        China diesel consumption – top end; but flat
Fig 56       China diesel apparent consumption y/y%                                                                                                                                               y/y

      Y-o-Y %                                                                                                                                                                                         (kb/d)
                                             Diesel Apparent Consumption                                                                                                                                                         Diesel Consumption
     20%                                                                                                                                                                                             3,800


     15%                                                                                                                                                                                             3,400


     10%                                                                                                                                                                                             3,000


      5%                                                                                                                                                                                             2,600


      0%                                                                                                                                                                                             2,200


     -5%                                                                                                                                                                                             1,800
                                                     May-11




                                                                                                                                                                       May-12
                                 Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                     Mar-12
            Jan-11
                       Feb-11


                                           Apr-11


                                                               Jun-11
                                                                         Jul-11
                                                                                   Aug-11
                                                                                             Sep-11
                                                                                                       Oct-11
                                                                                                                 Nov-11
                                                                                                                          Dec-11
                                                                                                                                   Jan-12
                                                                                                                                            Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                              Apr-12


                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-12
                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-12              Jan   Feb    Mar   Apr   May   Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct    Nov      Dec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5Y Range                 5Y Ave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010                     2011                     2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                  Fig 59 China gasoline consumption – the lonely
Fig 58       China gasoline apparent consumption y/y%                                                                                                                                             bright spot

      Y-o-Y %                                                                                                                                                                                          (kb/d)
                                          Gasoline Apparent Consumption                                                                                                                                                         Gasoline Consumption
     20%                                                                                                                                                                                             2,200

                                                                                                                                                                                                     2,000
     15%

                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,800
     10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,600

      5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,400

      0%                                                                                                                                                                                             1,200

                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,000
     -5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan   Feb    Mar   Apr   May   Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct    Nov      Dec
                                                     May-11




                                                                                                                                                                       May-12
                                 Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                     Mar-12
                                           Apr-11



                                                                         Jul-11



                                                                                                       Oct-11




                                                                                                                                                              Apr-12



                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-12
            Jan-11
                       Feb-11




                                                               Jun-11


                                                                                   Aug-11
                                                                                             Sep-11


                                                                                                                 Nov-11
                                                                                                                          Dec-11
                                                                                                                                   Jan-12
                                                                                                                                            Feb-12




                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5Y Range                 5Y Ave.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010                     2011                     2012




Fig 60       China fuel oil apparent consumption y/y%                                                                                                                                             Fig 61        China fuel oil consumption – near 5Y lows

      Y-o-Y %                                                                                                                                                                                         (kb/d)
                                           Fuel Oil Apparent Consumption                                                                                                                                                        Fuel Oil Consumption
     25%                                                                                                                                                                                             1,250


                                                                                                                                                                                                     1,000
     10%

                                                                                                                                                                                                      750

      -5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      500


     -20%                                                                                                                                                                                             250


                                                                                                                                                                                                       -
     -35%
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan   Feb    Mar   Apr   May   Jun    Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct    Nov      Dec
                                                      May-11




                                                                                                                                                                       May-12
                                  Mar-11




                                                                                                                                                     Mar-12
                                                                          Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-12
              Jan-11
                        Feb-11


                                            Apr-11


                                                                Jun-11


                                                                                    Aug-11
                                                                                              Sep-11
                                                                                                        Oct-11
                                                                                                                 Nov-11
                                                                                                                          Dec-11
                                                                                                                                   Jan-12
                                                                                                                                            Feb-12


                                                                                                                                                              Apr-12


                                                                                                                                                                                Jun-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5Y Range                 5Y Ave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010                     2011                     2012

Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          17
                                                                                                      5.0
                                                                                                                  5.5
                                                                                                                              6.0
                                                                                                                                          6.5
                                                                                                                                                      7.0
                                                                                                                                                                   7.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           25.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  26.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         27.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                28.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       29.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     31.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            32.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      33.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Fig 64
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Fig 62
                                                                                            Jan-10
                                                                                            Feb-10                                                                                                                               Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                  (mt)
                                                                                            Mar-10                                                                                                                               Feb-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (mt)
                                                                                            Apr-10                                                                                                                               Mar-10
                                                                                            May-10                                                                                                                               Apr-10
                                                                                            Jun-10                                                                                                                               May-10
                                                                                             Jul-10                                                                                                                              Jun-10




24 September 2012
                                                                                            Aug-10                                                                                                                                Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Macquarie Research




                                                                                            Sep-10
                                                                                            Oct-10                                                                                                                               Sep-10
                                                                                            Nov-10                                                                                                                               Oct-10
                                                                                            Dec-10                                                                                                                               Nov-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-10
                                                                                            Jan-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-11
                                                                                            Feb-11                                                                                                                               Feb-11
                                                                                            Mar-11                                                                                                                               Mar-11
                                                                                            Apr-11                                                                                                                               Apr-11
                                                                                            May-11                                                                                                                               May-11
                                                                                            Jun-11                                                                                                                               Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        China crude inventories




                                                                                             Jul-11                                                                                                                               Jul-11
                                                                                            Aug-11                                                                                                                               Aug-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                    China gasoline inventories
                                                                                            Sep-11                                                                                                                               Sep-11
                                                                                            Oct-11                                                                                                                               Oct-11




                                                                                                                                                                         China Gasoline Inventory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            China Crude Oil Inventory




                                                                                            Nov-11                                                                                                                               Nov-11
                                                                                            Dec-11                                                                                                                               Dec-11
                                                                                            Jan-12                                                                                                                               Jan-12
                                                                                            Feb-12                                                                                                                               Feb-12
                                                                                            Mar-12                                                                                                                               Mar-12
                                                                                            Apr-12                                                                                                                               Apr-12
                                                                                            May-12                                                                                                                               May-12
                                                                                            Jun-12                                                                                                                               Jun-12
                                                                                             Jul-12                                                                                                                               Jul-12
                                                                                            Aug-12                                                                                                                               Aug-12




                    Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
                                                                                                      1.0
                                                                                                            1.1
                                                                                                                  1.2
                                                                                                                        1.3
                                                                                                                              1.4
                                                                                                                                    1.5
                                                                                                                                          1.6
                                                                                                                                                1.7
                                                                                                                                                      1.8
                                                                                                                                                            1.9
                                                                                                                                                                   2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         7.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                8.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       9.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      13.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Fig 65
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Fig 63




                                                                                            Jan-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-10
                                                                                            Feb-10
                                                                                                                                                                     (mt)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (mt)




                                                                                            Mar-10                                                                                                                               Mar-10
                                                                                            Apr-10                                                                                                                               Apr-10
                                                                                            May-10                                                                                                                               May-10
                                                                                            Jun-10                                                                                                                               Jun-10
                                                                                             Jul-10                                                                                                                               Jul-10
                                                                                            Aug-10                                                                                                                               Aug-10
                                                                                            Sep-10                                                                                                                               Sep-10
                                                                                            Oct-10                                                                                                                               Oct-10
                                                                                            Nov-10                                                                                                                               Nov-10
                                                                                            Dec-10                                                                                                                               Dec-10
                                                                                            Jan-11                                                                                                                               Jan-11
                                                                                            Feb-11                                                                                                                               Feb-11
                                                                                            Mar-11                                                                                                                               Mar-11
                                                                                            Apr-11                                                                                                                               Apr-11
                                                                                            May-11                                                                                                                               May-11
                                                                                            Jun-11                                                                                                                               Jun-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        China diesel inventories




                                                                                             Jul-11                                                                                                                               Jul-11
                                                                                            Aug-11                                                                                                                               Aug-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                    China kerosene inventories




                                                                                            Sep-11                                                                                                                               Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            China Diesel Inventory




                                                                                            Oct-11                                                                                                                               Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                         China Kerosene Inventory




                                                                                            Nov-11                                                                                                                               Nov-11
                                                                                            Dec-11                                                                                                                               Dec-11
                                                                                            Jan-12                                                                                                                               Jan-12
                                                                                            Feb-12                                                                                                                               Feb-12
                                                                                            Mar-12                                                                                                                               Mar-12
                                                                                            Apr-12                                                                                                                               Apr-12
                                                                                            May-12                                                                                                                               May-12
                                                                                            Jun-12                                                                                                                               Jun-12
                                                                                             Jul-12                                                                                                                               Jul-12
                                                                                            Aug-12                                                                                                                               Aug-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Asia Oil & Gas




18
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                             Asia Oil & Gas




China Gas Demand, Production & Imports
                                                                        Fig 67 China natural gas apparent consumption –
Fig 66      China gas apparent consumption y/y%                         2012-TD up 17% y/y; despite the slowdown in 2Q

      Y-o-Y %                                                                  (bcm)
                    Gas Apparent Consumption                                                     Gas Apparent Consumption
     40%                                                                   15.0

     35%
                                                                           13.0
     30%
                                                                           11.0
     25%

     20%                                                                    9.0

     15%
                                                                            7.0
     10%
                                                                            5.0
      5%

      0%                                                                    3.0
            May-10




            May-11




            May-12
            Mar-10




            Mar-11




            Mar-12
            Jan-10
            Feb-10

            Apr-10

            Jun-10
             Jul-10
            Aug-10
            Sep-10
            Oct-10
            Nov-10
            Dec-10
            Jan-11
            Feb-11

            Apr-11

            Jun-11
             Jul-11
            Aug-11
            Sep-11
            Oct-11
            Nov-11
            Dec-11
            Jan-12
            Feb-12

            Apr-12

            Jun-12
             Jul-12



                                                                                  Jan   Feb   Mar    Apr   May   Jun      Jul     Aug   Sep   Oct    Nov     Dec
                                                                                                                   5Y Range                         5Y Ave
                                                                                          2010                     2011                             2012



                                                                        Fig 69 China natural gas production – remains flat
Fig 68      China natural gas production y/y%                           for a fourth consecutive month

      Y-o-Y %                                                                  (bcm)
                    Gas Indigenous Production                                                       Gas Indigenous Production
     30%                                                                   12.0
                                                                           11.0
     25%
                                                                           10.0
     20%
                                                                            9.0
     15%                                                                    8.0

     10%                                                                    7.0

                                                                            6.0
      5%
                                                                            5.0
      0%
                                                                            4.0
     -5%                                                                    3.0
            May-10




            May-11




            May-12
            Mar-10




            Mar-11




            Mar-12
            Jan-10
            Feb-10

            Apr-10

            Jun-10
             Jul-10
            Aug-10
            Sep-10
            Oct-10
            Nov-10
            Dec-10
            Jan-11
            Feb-11

            Apr-11

            Jun-11
             Jul-11
            Aug-11
            Sep-11
            Oct-11
            Nov-11
            Dec-11
            Jan-12
            Feb-12

            Apr-12

            Jun-12
             Jul-12




                                                                                  Jan   Feb   Mar    Apr   May   Jun      Jul     Aug   Sep   Oct    Nov     Dec
                                                                                                                       5Y Range                     5Y Ave
                                                                                          2010                         2011                         2012



Fig 70      China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG)                  Fig 71 China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG) –
y/y%                                                                    at record highs on Turkmen vols + imported LNG

      Y-o-Y %                                                                  (bcm)
                     Gas Imports (pipe + LNG)                                                       Gas Imports (pipe + LNG)
     250%                                                                  3.5

                                                                           3.0
     200%
                                                                           2.5

     150%                                                                  2.0

                                                                           1.5
     100%
                                                                           1.0
      50%
                                                                           0.5

       0%                                                                  -
            May-10




            May-11




            May-12
            Mar-10




            Mar-11




            Mar-12




                                                                                Jan     Feb   Mar    Apr   May   Jun     Jul      Aug   Sep   Oct    Nov     Dec
            Jan-10
            Feb-10
            Apr-10
            Jun-10
             Jul-10
            Aug-10
            Sep-10
            Oct-10
            Nov-10
            Dec-10
            Jan-11
            Feb-11
            Apr-11
            Jun-11
             Jul-11
            Aug-11
            Sep-11
            Oct-11
            Nov-11
            Dec-11
            Jan-12
            Feb-12
            Apr-12
            Jun-12
             Jul-12




                                                                           (0.5)
                                                                                                                       5Y Range                     5Y Ave
                                                                                          2010                         2011                         2012

Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                  19
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                       Asia Oil & Gas




Singapore Oil Product Inventories
Fig 72 S’pore total oil product inventory – near the                                                   Fig 73        S’pore middle distillate inventory – bottom
5Y average                                                                                             end

             (kb)                                                                                                  (kb)
                                    S'pore Total Oil Inventories                                                                S'pore Middle Distillate Inventories
    58,000                                                                                                18,000

    50,000
                                                                                                          15,000

    42,000
                                                                                                          12,000
    34,000
                                                                                                           9,000
    26,000

                                                                                                           6,000
    18,000

    10,000                                                                                                 3,000
                                              May




                                                                                                                                                May
                              Mar




                                                                                                                                 Mar
             Jan

                      Feb




                                        Apr




                                                    Jun




                                                                     Aug

                                                                           Sep

                                                                                 Oct

                                                                                        Nov

                                                                                                 Dec
                                                             Jul




                                                                                                                   Jan

                                                                                                                          Feb




                                                                                                                                          Apr




                                                                                                                                                      Jun




                                                                                                                                                                       Aug

                                                                                                                                                                             Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                   Oct

                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec
                                                                                                                                                               Jul
                   Sing Total Oil Inv                5Y Range                          5Y Ave                             Sing MD Inv                       5Y Range                      5Y Ave
                   2010                              2011                              2012                               2010                              2011                          2012




Fig 74 S’pore light distillate inventory – back below                                                  Fig 75 S’pore fuel oil inventory – above the 5Y
the 5Y average                                                                                         average

         (kb)                                                                                                      (kb)
                            S'pore Light Distillate Inventories                                                                         S'pore Fuel Oil Inventories
    14,000                                                                                                30,000

    12,500
                                                                                                          25,000

    11,000
                                                                                                          20,000
     9,500
                                                                                                          15,000
     8,000

                                                                                                          10,000
     6,500

     5,000                                                                                                 5,000
                                              May




                                                                                                                                                May
                              Mar




                                                                                                                                 Mar
             Jan

                      Feb




                                        Apr




                                                    Jun




                                                                     Aug

                                                                           Sep

                                                                                 Oct

                                                                                        Nov

                                                                                                 Dec
                                                             Jul




                                                                                                                   Jan

                                                                                                                          Feb




                                                                                                                                          Apr




                                                                                                                                                      Jun




                                                                                                                                                                       Aug

                                                                                                                                                                             Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                   Oct

                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec
                                                                                                                                                               Jul




                     Sing LD Inv                          5Y Range                      5Y Ave                            Sing FO Inv                       5Y Range                      5Y Ave
                     2010                                 2011                          2012                              2010                              2011                          2012

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                     20
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                               Asia Oil & Gas




US Oil Demand & Inventories
Fig 76            US total product dmd – at 5Y lows                                                         Fig 77       US crude inventories – at historic highs

      (kb/d)                                                                                                              (kb)
                                    US Total Product Demand                                                                              US crude inventories (ex SPR)
   23,000                                                                                                      420,000


   21,600                                                                                                      390,000


                                                                                                               360,000
   20,200

                                                                                                               330,000
   18,800

                                                                                                               300,000
   17,400
                                                                                                               270,000
   16,000
                                                 May
                              Mar
              Jan

                       Feb




                                         Apr




                                                        Jun




                                                                       Aug

                                                                              Sep

                                                                                     Oct

                                                                                             Nov

                                                                                                      Dec
                                                                Jul




                                                                                                               240,000




                                                                                                                                                      May
                                                                                                                                         Mar
                                                                                                                          Jan

                                                                                                                                   Feb



                                                                                                                                                Apr




                                                                                                                                                            Jun




                                                                                                                                                                             Aug

                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct
                                                                                                                                                                    Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec
                    US Total Pdt Dmd                    5Y range                           5Y ave.
                                                                                                                                US Crude Inv                  5Y Range                           5Y Ave
                    2010                                2011                               2012
                                                                                                                                2010                          2011                               2012



Fig 78            US diesel demand – near the 5Y average                                                    Fig 79       US diesel inventories – bottom end

           (kb/d)                                                                                                          (kb)
   5,000
                                              US Distillate Demand                                                                             US Distillate Inventories
                                                                                                               200,000


   4,500                                                                                                       176,000


   4,000
                                                                                                               152,000

   3,500
                                                                                                               128,000

   3,000
                                                                                                               104,000

   2,500
                                                May
                             Mar




                                                                                                                80,000
            Jan

                      Feb




                                    Apr




                                                       Jun




                                                                      Aug

                                                                             Sep

                                                                                    Oct

                                                                                             Nov

                                                                                                     Dec
                                                               Jul




                                                                                                                                                      May
                                                                                                                                         Mar
                                                                                                                         Jan

                                                                                                                                  Feb




                                                                                                                                                Apr




                                                                                                                                                            Jun




                                                                                                                                                                             Aug

                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep

                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct
                                                                                                                                                                     Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec
                    US Distillate Dmd                   5Y Range                           5Y ave.
                    2010                                2011                               2012                                 US Dist Inv                       5Y Range                         5Y Ave.
                                                                                                                                2010                              2011                             2012



Fig 80            US gasoline demand                                                                        Fig 81       US gasoline inventories

     (kb/d)                                                                                                               (kb)
                                         US Gasoline Demand                                                                                    US Gasoline Inventories
   10,300                                                                                                      260,000


    9,800                                                                                                      238,000


    9,300                                                                                                      216,000


    8,800                                                                                                      194,000


    8,300                                                                                                      172,000


    7,800                                                                                                      150,000
                                                May
                             Mar
            Jan

                      Feb




                                        Apr




                                                       Jun




                                                                      Aug

                                                                             Sep

                                                                                    Oct

                                                                                            Nov

                                                                                                     Dec
                                                               Jul




                                                                                                                                                      May
                                                                                                                                         Mar
                                                                                                                         Jan

                                                                                                                                  Feb




                                                                                                                                                Apr




                                                                                                                                                            Jun




                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct
                                                                                                                                                                             Aug

                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep
                                                                                                                                                                     Jul




                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec




                    US Gasoline Dmd                     5Y Range                           5Y ave.                              US Gaso Inv                   5Y Range                            5Y Ave
                    2010                                2011                               2012                                 2010                          2011                                2012

Source for all charts: EIA, Macquarie Research, September 2012




24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                 21
24 September 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Macquarie Research
                    Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation
                    Fig 82       Global Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation
                    Macquarie Research
                    Global Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics                                                                                                21 September 12
                                                                                Price
                    Company        Local   Price      Mcap         Reco.                 Upside   EV/EBITDA Ratio       P/E Ratio         P/B Ratio      Dividend Yield     FCF Yield         ROACE           Gearing
                                                                               Target
                                    Curr   (local)   (US$ bn)                  (local)            2012E     2013E    2012E    2013E    2012E    2013E    2012E    2013E   2012E   2013E   2012E   2013E   2012E     2013E
                    Exxon           USD     91.9      424.3     Outperform      97.0      +6%     4.2 x      4.4 x   12.2 x   11.0 x   2.3 x     2.1 x   2.4%     2.5%    5.9%     4.6%   19.3%   19.4%   0.9%          3.4%
                    RD Shell        GBp    2,202      133.8     Outperform     2,550     +16%     4.6 x      3.3 x   8.2 x     7.0 x   1.2 x     1.1 x   4.8%     4.9%    10.4%   13.3%   13.1%   14.5%   7.9%          4.5%
                    BP              GBp     441       136.5     Outperform      570      +29%     5.2 x      3.7 x   8.0 x     6.4 x   1.3 x     1.1 x   4.6%     5.1%    1.0%     9.1%   11.7%   13.6%   23.7%     18.5%
                    Chevron         USD    117.8      231.1     Outperform     123.0      +4%     3.6 x      3.4 x   9.1 x     9.1 x   1.6 x     1.5 x   3.0%     3.2%    3.9%     2.7%   17.9%   16.1%   -6.2%     -2.0%
                    TOTAL           EUR     40.8      125.3     Neutral         42.0      +3%     3.4 x      3.3 x   8.5 x     8.5 x   1.2 x     1.2 x   5.7%     5.7%    2.1%     3.8%   11.2%   10.6%   18.4%     18.8%
                    Conoco          USD     57.4       69.7     Neutral         55.0      -4%     3.7 x      3.8 x   10.1 x   10.7 x   1.0 x     0.9 x   4.6%     4.6%    -3.3%   -0.1%   8.4%    7.4%    16.0%     18.1%
                    Eni             EUR     18.6       87.6     Neutral         19.0      +2%     3.1 x      2.9 x   8.7 x     8.0 x   0.9 x     0.9 x   5.8%     5.9%    5.0%     8.1%   12.9%   11.8%   -2.0%     -5.0%


                    Statoil         NOK    153.3       85.2     Neutral        160.0      +4%     4.1 x      4.7 x   9.4 x     9.6 x   1.5 x     1.3 x   4.2%     4.5%    1.3%     4.5%   12.0%   11.1%   8.3%          7.4%
                    BG Group        GBp    1,246       68.9     Outperform     1,950     +57%     7.3 x      5.3 x   14.9 x   12.2 x   2.1 x     1.8 x   1.3%     1.4%    -5.5%   -2.5%   10.3%   11.1%   22.1%     23.5%
                    Occidental      USD     87.4       70.8     Outperform     137.0     +57%     5.2 x      4.4 x   12.4 x   10.1 x   1.7 x     1.5 x   2.4%     2.7%    1.1%     4.6%   12.6%   14.1%   8.6%          5.2%
                    Repsol          EUR     16.3       26.6     Underperform    13.5     -17%     5.0 x      4.7 x   10.4 x   10.0 x   0.7 x     0.6 x   4.0%     4.3%    0.6%     5.1%   6.5%    6.0%    33.3%     30.2%
                    Marathon Oil    USD     30.8       21.7     Neutral         34.0     +10%     3.2 x      3.0 x   12.0 x    8.8 x   1.1 x     1.0 x   2.2%     2.3%    -0.5%    3.7%   8.0%    9.4%    23.1%     20.1%
                    Galp            EUR     13.0       14.0     Outperform      16.0     +23%     9.6 x      7.5 x   29.1 x   21.2 x   1.9 x     1.8 x   1.8%     2.2%    -6.8%   -3.3%   6.6%    6.2%    -9.9%     -2.2%
                    OMV             EUR     28.1       11.9     Neutral         26.5      -6%     3.4 x      3.4 x   6.1 x     6.0 x   0.7 x     0.6 x   3.9%     3.9%    7.1%     6.9%   10.1%   9.2%    10.2%         7.9%


                    PetroChina      HKD     10.0      240.3     Outperform      12.0     +20%     5.3 x      5.0 x   10.8 x    8.7 x   1.3 x     1.2 x   3.9%     4.8%    -8.9%    4.3%   10.2%   10.6%   27.0%     26.0%
                    Sinopec         HKD     7.1        80.3     Neutral         7.1       +1%     4.1 x      3.2 x   9.2 x     6.5 x   1.0 x     0.9 x   2.7%     3.8%    -9.0%    4.8%   9.5%    11.7%   28.1%     26.2%
                    CNOOC           HKD     15.7       90.6     Outperform      21.0     +33%     4.4 x      4.1 x   8.0 x     7.6 x   1.7 x     1.5 x   2.0%     3.1%    3.7%     4.0%   20.4%   18.3%   8.6%          5.5%
                    RIL              INR    850        51.4     Neutral         759      -11%     7.9 x      7.5 x   11.8 x   11.7 x   1.4 x     1.3 x   1.1%     1.1%    18.1%    1.5%   9.7%    9.3%    19.8%     16.2%
                    ONGC             INR   294.5       46.9     Outperform     325.0     +10%     3.8 x      4.4 x   9.5 x     9.6 x   2.0 x     1.9 x   3.3%     3.4%    6.2%     5.7%   19.9%   18.5%   -16.2%    -18.1%
                    Woodside        AUD     33.8       29.5     Neutral         37.5     +11%     8.2 x      7.1 x   16.5 x   15.5 x   2.0 x     1.9 x   3.7%     4.1%    5.5%    10.0%   9.8%    10.1%   12.4%         5.6%
                    Petrobras*      BRL     22.7      149.1     Not Rated       NM        NM      6.4 x      6.1 x   9.3 x     7.8 x   0.7 x     0.7 x
                    Rosneft*        USD     6.7        70.8     Not Rated       NM        NM      4.6 x      4.6 x   6.6 x     6.6 x   0.9 x     0.8 x


                    Big Four                          925.7                              +10.2%   4.4 x     3.7 x    9.4 x     8.4 x   1.6 x     1.5 x   3.7%     3.9%    5.3%     7.4%   15.5%   15.9%   6.6%          6.1%
                    Europe                            689.9                              +15.6%   5.1 x     4.3 x    11.5 x    9.8 x   1.3 x     1.2 x   4.0%     4.2%    1.7%     5.0%   10.5%   10.5%   12.5%     11.5%
                    US                                817.6                              +9.0%    4.0 x     3.8 x    11.2 x    9.9 x   1.6 x     1.4 x   2.9%     3.1%    1.4%     3.1%   13.3%   13.3%   8.5%          9.0%
                    APAC & EM                         758.9                              +15.0%   5.6 x     5.3 x    10.2 x    9.3 x   1.4 x     1.3 x   2.8%     3.4%    2.6%     5.1%   13.2%   13.1%   13.3%     10.2%
                    Global                           2,266.4                             +13.0%   5.0 x     4.5 x    10.9 x    9.7 x   1.4 x     1.3 x   3.4%     3.7%    1.9%     4.5%   12.0%   11.9%   11.7%     10.5%

                    Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Averages are calculated on a market cap weighted basis.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Asia Oil & Gas
22
24 September 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Macquarie Research
                    Fig 83         Global Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus
                    Macquarie Research
                    Global Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics                                                                                                   21 September 12
                                                        Price
                    Company          Local   Price               Upside              Absolute Performance                         EPS (local)             EPS growth      Cons EPS (local)    Macq. vs. Cons   Cons.     Macq. vs.
                                                       Target
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Cons.
                                      Curr   (local)   (local)             1M       3M        6M            1Y    YTD     2011A     2012E       2013E   2012E    2013E    2012E     2013E    2012E     2013E     TP
                    Exxon             USD     91.9      97.0     +5.5%    +5.1%    +11.9%    +6.9%     +27.7%    +8.4%    8.42       7.34       8.17    -12.8%   +11.3%   7.73       8.17    -5.1%     -0.1%    92.6       4.8%
                    RD Shell          GBp    2,201.5   2,550.0   +15.8%   -2.2%    +3.3%     -1.5%      +6.4%    -7.1%    3.99       4.42       5.18    +11.0%   +17.2%   4.25       4.51    +4.1%    +15.1%   2,485.3     2.6%
                    BP                GBp    441.0     570.0     +29.3%   -2.1%    +7.0%     -8.4%      +9.1%    -4.2%    1.14       0.90       1.13    -20.6%   +25.3%   0.92       1.03    -2.0%    +10.6%   502.7      13.4%
                    Chevron           USD    117.8     123.0     +4.4%    +5.2%    +17.8%    +9.2%     +25.0%    +10.7%   13.18     12.54       12.59   -4.9%    +0.5%    12.84     12.71    -2.4%     -0.9%   121.5       1.3%
                    TOTAL             EUR     40.8      42.0     +2.9%    +0.9%    +17.1%    -1.9%     +26.7%    +3.3%    5.07       4.85       4.87    -4.3%    +0.2%    5.31       5.47    -8.6%    -11.1%    43.8      -4.1%
                    Conoco            USD     57.4      55.0     -4.1%    +1.3%    +8.7%     -2.6%     +15.8%    +3.3%    9.17       5.54       5.26    -39.6%   -5.0%    5.44       5.86    +1.8%    -10.2%    59.9      -8.2%
                    Eni               EUR     18.6      19.0     +2.4%    +3.1%    +13.2%    +1.8%     +44.1%    +15.9%   1.94       2.06       2.26    +6.5%    +9.6%    2.09       2.21    -1.2%     +2.2%    19.8      -4.2%


                    Statoil           NOK    153.3     160.0     +4.4%    +1.7%    +11.5%    -3.2%     +20.1%    -0.1%    15.89     15.88       15.59   -0.0%    -1.8%    17.06     17.61    -6.9%    -11.5%   166.5      -3.9%
                    BG Group          GBp    1,246.0   1,950.0   +56.5%   -5.0%    -0.2%     -17.5%     -0.5%    -9.5%    1.31       1.39       1.70    +6.0%    +22.3%   1.37       1.59    +1.2%     +7.1%   1,646.7    18.4%
                    Occidental        USD     87.4     137.0     +56.8%   -0.8%    +10.2%    -10.6%    +14.5%    -6.7%    8.40       6.96       8.55    -17.1%   +22.8%   6.94       7.64    +0.4%    +11.9%   108.7      26.1%
                    Repsol            EUR     16.3      13.5     -17.2%   +6.9%    +34.9%    -18.9%    -16.5%    -31.3%   1.57       1.49       1.56    -4.9%    +4.3%    1.56       1.72    -4.3%     -9.3%    17.5      -23.0%
                    Marathon Oil      USD     30.8      34.0     +10.5%   +13.9%   +32.0%    -7.4%     +29.7%    +5.2%    3.53       2.44       3.32    -30.8%   +36.2%   2.66       3.29    -8.3%     +1.1%    34.4      -1.2%
                    Galp              EUR     13.0      16.0     +23.0%   +8.2%    +35.2%    -2.9%     -10.8%    +14.3%   0.31       0.44       0.60    +41.5%   +37.2%   0.43       0.54    +1.3%    +11.2%    16.2      -1.1%
                    OMV               EUR     28.1      26.5     -5.6%    +6.2%    +21.4%    -0.1%     +12.2%    +19.8%   3.39       4.31       4.43    +27.3%   +2.7%    4.32       4.40    -0.3%     +0.7%    28.6      -7.4%


                    PetroChina        HKD     10.0      12.0     +19.8%   +3.2%    -2.7%     -8.8%      +7.7%    +5.3%    0.73       0.71       0.88    -2.1%    +23.7%   0.75       0.83    -5.3%     +6.2%    11.4       5.5%
                    Sinopec           HKD      7.1       7.1     +0.6%    -3.2%    +2.6%     -16.7%     -5.2%    -12.1%   0.85       0.62       0.88    -26.6%   +41.3%   0.69       0.86    -9.4%     +2.8%     8.1      -12.2%
                    CNOOC             HKD     15.7      21.0     +33.4%   +4.2%    +5.1%     -5.9%     +21.5%    +15.9%   1.57       1.49       1.58    -5.1%    +6.0%    1.45       1.44    +3.1%     +9.8%    17.2      21.8%
                    RIL                INR   850.3     759.0     -10.7%   +4.4%    +18.3%    +10.7%     +1.5%    +22.7%   73.80     66.75       67.54   -9.6%    +1.2%    62.29     67.07    +7.2%     +0.7%   798.2      -4.9%
                    ONGC               INR   294.5     325.0     +10.4%   +2.6%    +7.0%     +8.5%     +12.8%    +14.8%   10.31     29.22       29.61    NM      +1.3%    30.65     33.03    -4.7%    -10.4%   312.2       4.1%
                    Woodside          AUD     33.8      37.5     +11.0%   -5.1%    +6.5%     -2.1%      +1.4%    +11.5%   2.09       2.20       2.35    +5.7%    +6.6%    2.52       2.66    -12.4%   -11.6%    39.0      -3.9%
                    Petrobras*        BRL     22.7                        +6.9%    +17.8%    -5.8%     +10.2%    +5.6%                                                    2.45       2.93                       28.4
                    Rosneft*          USD      6.7                        +5.3%    +5.8%     -6.8%      +0.8%    +1.2%                                                    31.63     31.31                        7.7


                    Big Four                                     +10.2%   +3.0%    +11.4%    +4.0%     +21.2%    +4.9%                                  -8.6%    +11.5%                      -2.6%     +3.5%              +4.9%
                    Europe                                       +15.6%   -0.1%    +10.7%     -5.0%    +15.3%    -1.1%                                  -0.2%    +12.6%                      -2.2%     +2.4%              +2.2%
                    US                                           +9.0%    +4.5%    +13.7%    +4.8%     +24.8%    +7.2%                                  -13.7%   +8.5%                       -3.3%     -0.1%              +4.4%
                    APAC & EM                                    +15.0%   +3.3%    +6.0%      -5.9%     +7.5%    +6.4%                                  -7.0%    +19.9%                      -3.6%     +3.4%              +4.0%
                    Global                                       +13.0%   +2.7%    +10.2%     -1.7%    +16.1%    +4.4%                                  -7.3%    +13.6%                      -3.1%     +1.8%              +3.6%

                    Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2012. Note: Averages are calculated on a market cap weighted basis.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Asia Oil & Gas
23
24 September 2012




                                                                                                                                                                  Macquarie Research
                    Global Oil Supply-Demand
                    Fig 84    Macquarie Oil Demand-Supply Model
                    Macquarie Research
                    Global Oil Supply-Demand
                    (mb/d)                                              2009            2010       2011e    2012e    2013e    2014e    2015e    2016e    2017e
                     North America                                       23.3            23.8        23.5     23.3     23.0     23.0     23.1     23.1     23.0
                     Europe                                              14.7            14.6        14.4     14.1     14.1     14.2     14.2     14.5     14.7
                     OECD APAC                                            7.7             7.8         7.9      8.0      8.0      8.1      8.2      8.2      8.1
                    OECD                                                 45.6            46.1        45.8     45.3     45.2     45.3     45.5     45.8     45.9
                     Non-OECD Europe                                      0.7             0.7         0.7      0.7      0.7      0.7      0.7      0.7      0.7
                     Non-OECD APAC                                       10.1            10.4        10.7     10.8     10.9     11.0     11.1     11.2     11.1
                     FSU                                                  4.2             4.5         4.7      4.8      5.0      5.2      5.4      5.6      5.8
                     China                                                8.1             9.1         9.5     10.1     10.7     11.3     12.0     12.5     13.1
                     Latin America                                        6.0             6.3         6.5      6.7      6.9      7.0      7.2      7.4      7.6
                     Africa                                               3.3             3.4         3.4      3.5      3.7      3.9      4.1      4.3      4.5
                     Middle East                                          7.5             7.8         7.9      8.3      8.6      9.0      9.4      9.8     10.2
                    Non-OECD                                             39.9            42.1        43.4     44.9     46.5     48.2     49.9     51.6     53.1
                    Total Demand                                         85.6            88.3        89.2     90.3     91.7     93.5     95.4     97.3     99.0

                     North America                                       13.6               14.1    14.4     14.7     15.2     15.5     16.0     16.3     16.5
                     Europe                                               4.5                4.2     3.9      3.9      3.8      3.8      3.8      3.9      3.9
                     OECD APAC                                            0.6                0.6     0.5      0.5      0.5      0.5      0.4      0.4      0.4
                     FSU                                                 13.3               13.5    13.6     13.7     13.8     14.0     14.3     14.3     14.3
                     Europe                                               0.1                0.1     0.1      0.1      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
                     China                                                3.9                4.1     4.2      4.1      4.1      4.1      4.1      4.1      4.1
                     Other Asia                                           3.6                3.7     3.5      3.5      3.4      3.4      3.4      3.4      3.4
                     Latin America                                        3.9                4.1     4.2      4.4      4.7      4.9      5.2      5.7      6.1
                     Middle East                                          1.7                1.7     1.6      1.6      1.6      1.7      1.7      1.7      1.7
                     Africa                                               2.6                2.5     2.5      2.5      2.5      2.5      2.5      2.5      2.5
                     Global Biofuels                                      1.6                1.8     1.9      1.9      1.9      2.0      2.0      2.1      2.1
                     Processing Gains                                     2.0                2.1     2.2      2.2      2.2      2.3      2.3      2.3      2.3
                    Non-OPEC Supply                                      51.5               52.6    52.7     53.1     53.9     54.7     55.8     56.6     57.3
                     OPEC crude                                          29.1               29.5    29.9     30.6     31.3     31.5     31.7     31.7     31.7
                     OPEC NGLs + non-conventionals                        4.9                5.3     5.9      6.2      6.6      6.8      7.1      7.1      7.1
                    OPEC Supply                                          34.1               34.8    35.7     36.8     37.8     38.3     38.7     38.7     38.7
                    Total Supply                                         85.6               87.4    88.5     89.9     91.7     93.0     94.5     95.3     96.0

                    Supply-Demand                                         0.0               -0.8     -0.7     -0.4     0.0      -0.5     -0.9     -2.0     -3.0




                                                                                                                                                                  Asia Oil & Gas
                    Demand Growth (y/y)                                  -1.0                2.7      0.9      1.1     1.4       1.8      1.9      1.9      1.7
                    Supply Growth (y/y)                                  -1.1                1.9      1.0      1.4     1.8       1.3      1.5      0.8      0.7
                    Source: IEA, BP Stat Review, JODI, Macquarie Research, September 2012
24
24 September 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Macquarie Research
                    China Gas Supply-Demand
                    Fig 85   Macquarie China Gas Supply-Demand
                    Macquarie Research
                    China Gas Supply-Demand

                                                                                                                                                                                 2011-   2011-
                    (bcm)                       2005     2006    2007    2008      2009   2010   2011E   2012E   2013E   2014E   2015E   2016E   2017E   2018E   2019E   2020E
                                                                                                                                                                                   15e     20e
                    Demand
                     Residential                   8       10      14      17        18     23      29      34      41      48      56      64      71      78      84     89    18%     13%
                     Industrial                   30       34      40      45        44     49      59      69      80      92     107     116     125     135     146    157    16%     11%
                     Power Generation              3        4       8       8        13     19      23      27      31      34      38      42      46      49      53     57    13%     11%
                     Transport (NGVs)              1        1       1       2         3      5       6       7      11      14      19      25      31      40      49     60    33%     29%
                     Other                         5        6       7       9        11     11      12      13      14      15      16      18      19      21      22     24     8%      8%
                    China Gas Demand              47       56      71      81        90    108     129     150     176     205     237     264     292     323     354    388    16%     13%
                     y/y%                       18%      20%     26%     15%       10%    20%     20%     16%     17%     16%     16%     11%     11%     10%     10%     9%

                    Supply
                     Tarim                         5       11      14      16        17     17     20      23      26       30      35     40      46      50      54      58
                     Changqing                     7        7       9      11        15     16     18      20      23       26      29     33      38      42      46      51
                     Sichuan                      11       13      14      14        14     14     15      17      18       20      21     23      25      27      29      31
                     Puguang (Sichuan)             0        0       0       0         0      4      6       9       9       10      12     12      12      12      12      12
                     Xinjiang                      1        1       1       1         2      2      2       3       3        4       4      5       5       6       7       7
                     E-S China Sea Others          0        0       0       0         1      1      2       2       2        3       3      4       4       4       4       4
                     Liwan                         0        0       0       0         0      0      0       0       0        1       2      2       2       2       2       2
                     Legacy fields                27       27      31      38        37     43     42      39      41       43      44     45      45      45      45      46
                    China Indigenous Pdtn         51       59      69      80        85     97    103     110     120      132     145    158     171     181     192     205      9%      8%
                     y/y%                       23%      15%     18%     16%        6%    13%     7%      7%      9%      10%     10%     8%      8%      6%      6%      6%

                     Turkmenistan                  0        0       0          0      0      3       9      20      25      40      40      40      50      60     60      60
                     Russia/Central Asia           0        0       0          0      0      0       0       0       0       0       0       0      15      22     30      30
                     Myanmmar                      0        0       0          0      0      0       0       4      12      12      12      12      12      12     12      12
                    China Pipeline Imports         0        0       0          0      0      3       9      24      37      52      52      52      77      94    102     102    55%     31%
                     y/y%                        0%       0%      0%         0%     0%     0%    256%    170%     54%     41%      0%      0%     48%     22%     9%      0%

                    LNG Imports                    0        0       0          0     4       8      17      16      18      20      39      54      45      48      60      81   23%     19%
                     Contracted LNG                0        1       1          1     3       7       9      20      25      41      41      47      47      46      46      46
                     Implied Spot LNG              0        0       0          0     1       1       8       0       0       0       0       7       0       1      14      35
                    LNG imports y/y%             0%       0%      0%         0%    NM     96%    103%     -6%     16%     10%     95%     37%    -17%      7%     27%     35%

                    China Gas Supply              51       59      69      80        90    108     129     150     176     205     237     264     292     323     354    388    16%     13%
                     y/y%                       23%      15%     18%     16%       11%    20%     20%     16%     17%     16%     16%     11%     11%     10%     10%     9%




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Asia Oil & Gas
                    Source: CEIC, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2012
25
24 September 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Macquarie Research
                    Global LNG Supply-Demand
                    Fig 86      Macquarie Global LNG Supply-Demand
                    Macquarie LNG Supply/Demand Model
                    (in mtpa)                             2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e
                    SUPPLY
                         Total Operational                109    110     117   130    133    144    158    169    171    193    228    243    258   266   268   263   259   255   250   244   237   232   226   219   209   200
                         Total Under Construction           0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     5    21    44    65    80    85    88    94    94    94    94    94
                         Total FEED                         0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     3     8    26    49    64    78    84    90    97    97
                           FEED Atlantic                    0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     2     5    17    26    30    43    49    55    62    62
                           FEED Asia/Pacific                0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     1     3     9    23    34    35    35    35    35    35
                           FEED ME                          0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
                         Total Proposed                     0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     4     9    21    44    83   123   165   189   192   192   192
                           Proposed Atlantic                0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     3     5     7    21    39    61    86   101   104   104   104
                           Proposed Asia/Pacific            0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     1     4     8    11    32    50    67    76    76    76    76
                           Proposed ME                      0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     6    12    12    12    12    12    12    12    12
                         Total Speculative                  0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     4    18    46    87   118   143   169   185   188
                           Speculative Atlantic             0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     0    10    29    54    70    81    97   105   107
                           Speculative Asia/Pacific         0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     4     8    16    28    41    54    65    72    74
                           Speculative ME                   0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1     5     7     7     7     7     7
                         Total Higly Speculative            0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     0     4     9     9    11    29    49    70    83
                           Stalled Atlantic                 0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     0     3     6     6     8    16    23    28    35
                           Stalled Asia/Pacific             0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     0     2     3     3     3     3     3     7    11
                           Stalled ME                       0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0    10    24    35    36
                    Global LNG Supply (Firm)              109    110     117   130    133    144    158    169    171    193    228    243    258   266   274   283   305   327   355   378   389   404   405   404   400   391
                    Global LNG Supply (Firm + Possible)   109    110     117   130    133    144    158    169    171    193    228    243    258   266   274   287   314   351   422   515   608   698   765   814   846   853

                    DEMAND
                      Japan                                55     57      55    61     59     60     64     69     71     67     71     81     85    87    88    91    91    92    93    94    95    95    96    97    98    98
                      Korea                                16     16      18    20     22     23     26     26     28     20     34     37     41    44    45    45    44    43    42    42    42    43    43    44    45    45
                      Taiwan                                5      5       6     6      7      7      8      9      9      9     10     12     13    14    14    15    15    15    16    16    17    17    18    18    18    19
                      China                                 0      0       0     0      0      0      1      3      3      6     10     13     17    23    28    31    42    42    45    45    53    55    57    59    61    63
                      India                                 0      0       0     0      2      5      6      8      8      9      9     13     16    17    18    20    21    23    25    26    28    30    31    33    34    36
                      New Asia Pac                          0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      1      4     7    10    12    14    16    18    21    24    27    29    32    36    39
                    Asia Pac                               75     77      79    86     90     94    105    115    120    110    133    157    176   191   204   213   227   231   239   244   259   266   274   283   291   301
                    Middle East                             0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      1      2      3      5     6     8     9    10    11    11    12    13    14    14    16    17    17
                    North America                           5      5       5    11     14     13     13     18     11     13     15     13     13    13    13    13    13    12    12    12    11    11    10    10    10     9
                      Argentina                             0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      1      1      3      3     3     3     4     5     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6
                      Brazil                                0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      1      2      1      3     4     5     6     6     6     6     6     5     5     4     3     2     2
                      Other                                 0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      0      2      4      5     5     6     7     7     7     7     7     6     5     5     4     3     2
                    South America                           0      0       0     0      0      0      0      0      0      2      6      8     11    12    14    17    17    19    19    19    17    16    14    13    11    10
                      UK                                    0      0       0     0      0      0      3      1      1      8     14     19     20    21    21    23    23    24    25    26    27    28    28    29    31    32
                      Existing continential Europe         26     26      30    32     29     35     41     38     41     43     49     45     39    36    33    33    33    38    50    51    56    58    62    61    60    62
                      New Europe                            0      0       0     0      1      1      2      2      2      2      2      3      5     8    11    13    15    16    18    19    21    22    24    25    27    28
                    Europe                                 26     26      30    32     30     37     45     42     44     53     65     67     64    64    65    69    71    78    93    96   103   108   114   116   117   122
                    Other                                   1      0       0     0      1      0      0      0      0      5      3      2      0     1     3     4     4     9     2     9     1     3     1     1     3     0
                    Global LNG Demand                     107    108     114   129    135    145    163    175    175    184    225    250    269   288   306   325   343   360   376   391   405   417   428   439   449   459

                    Source: BP Stat Review, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Asia Oil & Gas
26
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                          Asia Oil & Gas
Important disclosures:
 Recommendation definitions                                  Volatility index definition*                            Financial definitions
 Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand                           This is calculated from the volatility of historical    All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
 Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return       price movements.                                        adjustments made:
 Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return                                                                      Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
 Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return            Very high–highest risk – Stock should be                catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,
                                                             expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year           IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense
 Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal         – investors should be aware this stock is highly        Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
 GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend            speculative.                                            revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
 yield                                                                                                               minority interests
 Macquarie – Asia/Europe                                     High – stock should be expected to move up or
 Outperform – expected return >+10%                          down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should       EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
 Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%                 be aware this stock could be speculative.               ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
 Underperform – expected return <-10%                                                                                ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
                                                             Medium – stock should be expected to move up            total assets
 Macquarie First South - South Africa                        or down at least 30–40% in a year.                      ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
 Outperform – expected return >+10%                                                                                  Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
 Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%                 Low–medium – stock should be expected to                *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average
 Underperform – expected return <-10%                        move up or down at least 25–30% in a year.              number of shares
 Macquarie - Canada
 Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return       Low – stock should be expected to move up or            All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks
 Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return              down at least 15–25% in a year.                         are modelled under IFRS (International Financial
 Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return            * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only        Reporting Standards).
 Macquarie - USA                                             Recommendations – 12 months
 Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell          Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
 3000 index return                                           Fundamental Analyst recommendations
 Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index
 return
 Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000
 index return


 Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 June 2012
                      AU/NZ         Asia      RSA            USA        CA          EUR
 Outperform           55.67%      61.00%     53.43%        42.58%    69.23%       46.60% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 9.05% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
 Neutral              30.50%      22.11%     36.99%        52.41%    28.02%       33.69% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.14% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
 Underperform         13.83%      16.89%     9.59%         5.01%     2.75%        19.71% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.45% of stocks covered are investment banking clients)


Company Specific Disclosures:

Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.
Analyst Certification:
The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The
analyst principally responsible for the preparation of this research receives compensation based on overall revenues of Macquarie Group Ltd ABN 94
122 169 279 (AFSL No. 318062) (MGL) and its related entities (the Macquarie Group) and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain
independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
General Disclaimers:
Macquarie Securities (Australia) Ltd; Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America
Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd and its Taiwan branch; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd;
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24 September 2012                                                                                                                                                      28
Asia Research
Head of Equity Research                                  Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals                          Transport & Infrastructure
John O’Connell (Global Co – Head)     (612) 8232 7544    James Hubbard (Asia)             (852) 3922 1226     Janet Lewis (Asia, Japan)          (852) 3922 5417
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Scott Russell (Asia, China)           (852) 3922 3567     (Malaysia, Singapore)           (603) 2059 8989     Factset:         http://www.factset.com/home.aspx
Chung Jun Yun (Korea)                 (822) 2095 7222    Alex Pomento (Philippines)       (632) 857 0899      CapitalIQ        www.capitaliq.com
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Media and Internet                                                                                            Email macresearch@macquarie.com for access
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Alex Pomento (Philippines)            (632) 857 0899



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Robin Black (Asia)                    (852) 3922 2074    Angus Kent (Thailand)            (662) 694 7601      Mike Keen (Europe)                 (44) 20 3037 4905
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JJ Kim (Korea)                        (822) 3705 8799    Justin Crawford (Asia)           (852) 3922 2065     Michael Santos (Philippines)       (632) 857 0813
Chris Gould (Malaysia)                (603) 2059 8888    Sales Trading                                        Isaac Huang (Taiwan)               (8862) 2734 7582
Gino C Rojas (Philippines)            (632) 857 0861                                                          Dominic Shore (Thailand)           (662) 694 7707
Eric Roles (New York)                 (1 212) 231 2559   Adam Zaki (Asia)                 (852) 3922 2002
Luke Sullivan (New York)              (1 212) 231 2507   Phil Sellaroli (Japan)           (813) 3512 7837
Paul Colaco (New York)                (1 212) 231 2496   Grace Lee (Korea)                (822) 3705 8601
Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco)      (1 415) 762 5001   Jonathan Seymour (Singapore)     (65) 6601 0202
Miki Edelman (Taiwan)                 (8862) 2734 7580   Matthew Ryan (Singapore)         (65) 6601 0216

				
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