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International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035 - pptfun

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					 Shale Gas in the United States:
Recent Developments and Outlook
  Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth
   in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources
technically recoverable gas resources
trillion cubic meters
 60
                                                                                                                      Unproved shale gas &
                                                                                                                      coal-bed methane
 50


 40
                                                                                                                       Unproved
 30                                                                                                                    conventional
                                                                                                                       (including tight gas
                                                                                                                       and Alaska*)
 20


 10
                                                                                                                       Proved reserves
                                                                                                                       (all types & locations)
  0
      1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
                                        EIA Annual Energy Outlook
      * Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect North Slope resources not included in previously published documentation.
                                                                Source: U.S. Geological Service, Mineral Management Service, private data, EIA.

           Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                                                                       2
Since 1997, more than 12,000 gas wells completed in
                 the Barnett shale




  Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010   3
       The result has been an accelerating increase
            in production from the Barnett field
gas production                                                                      wells drilled
billion cubic meters                                                                thousands
 45                                                                                          8

 40                                                                                          7
                 Vertical well production                   Vertical well count
 35              Horizontal well production                 Horizontal well count            6
 30
                                                                                             5
 25
                                                                                             4
 20
                                                                                             3
 15
                                                                                             2
 10

   5                                                                                         1

   0                                                                                         0
       1990 1992        1994 1996 1998             2000 2002 2004            2006 2008
                                                                                        Source: EIA
   Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                                   4
Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other
                shale formations in the U.S.

                                                                        U.S. shale gas plays




     Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                          5
           Drilling activity on the rise, particularly in the
              Haynesville, Marcellus, and Eagle Ford

rigs drilling for gas

200
180

160
140
                 Fayetteville           Haynesville
120              Woodford               Barnett
100              Marcellus              Eagle Ford

 80

 60
 40

 20
  0
  Jan-07        Jul-07        Jan-08         Jul-08        Jan-09        Jul-09      Jan-10          Jul-10

                                                                                  Source: Smith International

      Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                                          6
   Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production from
          the major plays has increased 60-fold
shale gas production
billion cubic meters

  130
  120
  110               Barnett             Fayetteville         Woodford
  100               Haynesville         Marcellus            Eagle Ford
   90
   80
   70
   60
   50
   40
   30
   20
   10
    0
    2000       2001      2002      2003       2004      2005      2006      2007      2008      2009
                                                               Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting (2010 estimated)
       Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                                           7
                  Shale gas production continued to rise
                        rapidly over the past year
billion cubic meters per day

   0.40
   0.35
   0.30
   0.25                                                                                     Eagleford
   0.20                                                                                     Marcellus
                                                                                            Haynesville
   0.15
                                                                                            Woodford
   0.10                                                                                     Fayetteville
                                                                                            Barnett Shale
   0.05
   0.00




       Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010   Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting
                                                                                                            8
        Shale Gas in the Long-term Outlook




Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010   9
   Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in other
   supply to meet consumption growth and reduce imports

U.S. gas production
billion cubic meters
                       History                                                Projections
 750

 625                                                                                          Alaska

                                                                                             Shale gas
 500
                                                                                      Coalbed methane
 375
                                                                                  Non-associated onshore
 250
                                                                                    Non-associated offshore
 125
                                                                                    Associated with oil
                                                                                         Net imports
    0
    1990        1995        2000         2005        2010         2015         2020         2025       2030        2035
                                                                              Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

           Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                                           10
    Over the past 5 years, EIA has significantly lowered its
           projection of LNG imports into the U.S.
U.S. net LNG imports
billion cubic meters
                 History                                              Projections
  200

                                                                                    AEO2005

  150



  100



   50
                                                                                                    AEO2010


    0
        2000       2005           2010          2015           2020          2025       2030          2035
                                                                               Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
          Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                                          11
Shale gas production significantly affects projected U.S. gas imports,
   and could have similar effects in other gas importing countries
total U.S. natural gas imports
billion cubic meters
                        History                                    Projections
       150


       120                                                            No new U.S. shale scenario


        90
                                                                      Reference scenario

        60

                                                                      High U.S. shale scenario
        30


          0
          2000            2005           2010            2015            2020           2025           2030
                                                                                Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010
          Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                                                12
                             For more information


U.S. Energy Information Administration home page                                 www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook                      www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Annual Energy Outlook                                         www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

International Energy Outlook                                   www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

Monthly Energy Review                                 www.eia.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html


National Energy Information Center                           (202) 586-8800
                                  Live expert from 9:00 AM – 5:00 p.m. EST
                              Monday – Friday (excluding Federal holidays)
                                                 email: InfoCtr@eia.doe.gov

  Howard Gruenspecht, Global Shale Gas Initiative, August 23, 2010                               13

				
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