Oil _ Gas Weekly.xls
Document Sample
as of 9-December-2011, close
Oil and gas valuation monitor
9-Dec-11 Close Mcap EV/EBITDA P/E
RUB $ $ mn
2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2009
Major indices
RTS Oil and Gas n/a 184 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.
MICEX Oil and Gas 2,957 n/a n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.
RTS n/a 1,432 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.
MICEX 1,405 n/a n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.
Dow Jones n/a 11,998 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.
BOVESPA n/a 57,455 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.
MSCI EMF n/a 948 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.
Oil and gas
Brent n/a 107.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
WTI n/a 98.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Urals n/a 107.6 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
n/a 121
Natural gas USA (Henry Hub, 1M futures) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
1M
Natural gas UK (NBP,n/a futures) 324 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Russian oils
Bashneft 1,430 45.8 9,102 9.9 3.6 3.0 3.0 22.3
Gazprom neft* 134.1 4.3 20,355 3.8 3.9 2.8 3.1 6.8
Lukoil 1,646 52.7 44,815 3.3 3.4 2.7 2.9 6.4
Rosneft 211.8 6.8 71,871 4.8 4.9 4.2 4.7 11.0
SurgutNG 27.2 0.9 35,128 3.1 2.7 2.0 2.3 10.3
Tatneft 157.2 5.0 11,388 4.9 4.4 3.0 3.0 6.8
TNK-BP Holding 82.0 2.6 40,462 5.1 4.2 3.1 3.4 7.8
Average 5.0 3.9 3.0 3.2 10.2
Russian gas
Gazprom 172.7 5.53 130,917 5.0 3.6 2.7 2.6 4.4
NOVATEK 388.0 12.4 37,722 21.9 21.5 13.3 11.6 41.0
Average 13.5 12.5 8.0 7.1 22.7
Russian pipelines
Transneft (pref) 48,586 1,556 11,048 3.0 2.6 2.0 1.9 2.9
Russian oil and gas average 6.5 5.5 3.9 3.8 12.0
International pipeline companies
Enbridge n/a 35.3 27,473 23.6 18.3 14.1 12.3 20.0
TransCanada n/a 41.5 29,202 12.7 12.6 9.7 9.3 24.0
Average 18.2 15.5 11.9 10.8 22.0
Emerging market oils
n/a 1.2
PetroChina (Hong Kong Stock Exchange) 221,080 6.3 5.0 4.3 4.0 13.9
Stock 1.5
PetroChina (Shanghain/a Exchange) 278,350 7.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 17.5
Petroleo Brasileiro SAn/a 24.8 113,373 4.3 3.5 3.2 2.8 8.2
Average 6.1 4.9 4.3 3.9 13.2
Developed market majors
BP n/a 42.1 131,331 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.4 8.9
Chevron Corp. n/a 102.3 204,966 6.5 4.6 3.4 3.6 20.2
ConocoPhillips Inc. n/a 71.0 105,127 6.3 4.7 4.3 4.5 19.4
ExxonMobil Corp. n/a 79.9 394,688 7.7 5.5 4.2 4.3 20.9
Repsol YPF n/a 29.7 36,199 5.9 4.1 4.3 3.6 20.5
Royal Dutch Shell n/a 35.1 214,763 6.5 4.6 3.4 3.4 16.6
Total SA n/a 50.4 119,536 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.1 11.5
Average 6.0 4.4 3.8 3.7 16.9
P/E EV/Production EV/1P
Reserves,
2010F 2011F 2012F 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 1D
$/boe
n.d. n.d. n.d. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2.7%
n.d. n.d. n.d. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -3.0%
n.d. n.d. n.d. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2.8%
n.d. n.d. n.d. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -3.5%
n.d. n.d. n.d. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1.6%
n.d. n.d. n.d. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2.1%
n.d. n.d. n.d. n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1.2%
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -0.3%
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -2.1%
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -1.7%
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -0.5%
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.7%
7.9 6.7 5.6 109 100 94 95 5.3 0.0%
6.3 4.0 5.0 64 67 67 66 3.2 -3.5%
5.0 3.8 4.2 65 65 65 64 3.1 -2.7%
6.9 5.6 6.7 107 106 101 98 4.0 -3.2%
8.8 6.3 7.2 38 37 37 37 2.3 -2.6%
6.2 4.4 4.5 67 67 67 67 2.1 -3.4%
6.2 4.5 5.2 74 74 73 71 4.1 0.0%
6.8 5.0 5.5 75 74 72 71 3.4
5.3 4.1 3.0 52 51 49 49 1.4 -2.6%
46.0 28.4 17.0 186 169 161 124 4.3 -0.6%
25.7 16.2 10.0 119 110 105 86 2.8
2.8 1.5 1.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -0.6%
10.1 6.9 6.0 85 82 79 74 3.3
29.2 24.4 21.8 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.0%
23.6 19.1 17.6 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0%
26.4 21.8 19.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
10.7 9.8 9.1 194 194 194 194 10.5 -4.7%
13.5 12.4 11.4 242 242 242 242 13.1 0.0%
6.0 4.8 4.5 143 142 142 142 11.4 -5.2%
10.1 9.0 8.3 193 193 193 193 11.7
6.3 6.2 6.1 114 114 114 114 8.8 -2.2%
11.0 7.4 8.0 227 227 227 227 18.5 -2.2%
11.9 8.7 9.6 205 205 205 205 14.6 -1.9%
13.4 9.5 10.1 263 263 263 263 17.8 -1.5%
13.0 12.3 9.2 155 163 163 163 23.3 -3.3%
11.6 7.7 7.4 197 201 201 201 21.0 -0.9%
8.4 7.6 7.5 164 166 166 166 13.3 -2.3%
10.8 8.5 8.3 189 191 191 191 16.8
Pefrormance
5D МTD 1M 3M 6M 12M YTD
-7.0% -6.7% -5.3% -4.2% -19.7% -4.3% -6.8%
-6.2% -5.7% -1.6% 2.2% -6.0% 0.8% -0.8%
-7.3% -7.1% -5.3% -11.9% -26.2% -16.3% -19.1%
-6.7% -6.3% -4.5% -7.5% -17.0% -15.4% -16.8%
-0.2% -0.4% 1.8% 9.1% -1.0% 5.5% 3.6%
-1.2% 1.0% -0.2% 3.0% -9.5% -15% -17.1%
-1.4% 2.1% -3.3% -4.5% -17.0% -15% -17.7%
-3.0% -3.9% -4.7% -6.7% -10.4% 18.2% 13.5%
-1.9% -2.0% 1.6% 10.4% -2.4% 11.4% 7.6%
-1.8% -3.0% -6.4% -6.5% -6.9% 21.1% 16.7%
-4.1% -3.2% -5.9% -12.2% -26.4% -22.5% -22.0%
0.5% 1.9% -11.1% -12.2% 0.8% -3.3% -4.2%
-2.7% -3.1% -8.6% -6.5% -3.4% 6% 6%
-4.0% -4.1% 0.1% 8.2% 4.2% 1.7% 4.5%
-3.5% -4.5% -6.9% -4.6% -8.6% -7.5% -5.0%
-5.0% -5.4% -4.2% -4.5% -15.7% -2.0% -3.2%
-7.4% -7.5% 4.0% 16.1% 0.2% -9.8% -15.5%
-4.9% -5.8% 1.4% 0.1% -4.4% 5.4% 7.4%
-0.5% -0.5% -3.5% -1.6% -16.1% -3% -3.5%
-5.8% -1.5% -4.5% 2.3% -18.5% -10.4% -10.8%
-6.8% -7.4% -3.2% 1.3% 4.6% 26.6% 15.6%
-4.2% -4.4% 23.7% 29.7% 14.0% 17.0% 29.4%
1.2% 0.1% 3.3% 13.5% 18.9% 30% 28.5%
-1.1% -0.7% 5.0% 2.1% 1.4% 13.7% 12.1%
-5.8% 3.1% -11.2% -2.9% -14.1% -5.6% -7.5%
0.6% 2.3% -5.0% -1.3% -10.5% -14.9% -13.7%
-1.2% -1.1% 1.6% 2.1% -18.2% -17.8% -27%
-1.6% -3.4% -0.8% 16.9% -5% -1.7% -4.8%
0.4% -0.6% -1.9% 7.4% 1.0% 18.0% 12.1%
-1.0% -0.4% 1.1% 10.6% -2.1% 10% 4.3%
0.1% -0.7% 3.2% 12.5% -1.6% 10.9% 9.2%
-1.0% -2.0% 0.2% 14% -9.0% 6.4% 6.1%
2.0% 1.2% 3.6% 11.5% 4.8% 10.8% 5.2%
-1.0% -1.1% 1.8% 15.5% -2.0% -3.8% -4.4%
