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rp_vibJ_Final_Report_v2.2

VIEWS: 14 PAGES: 107

									FYLDE COAST SUB-REGIONAL
TRANSPORT STUDY
Lancashire County Council


Final Report


Prepared by FaberMaunsell and Roger Tym & Partners

March 2005
LANCASHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL

FYLDE COAST SUB-REGIONAL TRANSPORT STUDY

FINAL REPORT




Prepared by:            ............................................   Approved by:      ............................................
                        David Arthur                                                     David Gane
                        Senior Consultant                                                Director




Reviewed by:            ............................................
                        Irvine Piczenik
                        Associate Director


 Rev No                            Comments                                     Approved / Reviewed                  Date
   1            Draft for Comments                                                    DG/IP                       26/012005
   2            Revised version following comments from                               DG/IP                       02/03/2005
                Steering Group




Job No:            38921TMT                      Telephone: 01925 582700                   Holly House
                                                 Fax: 01925 582799                         73 Sankey Street
Reference:         Final Report                  Website: http://www.fabermaunsell.com     Warrington
Date created:      March 2005                                                              Cheshire WA1 1SL
TABLE OF CONTENTS


1.          Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 63
     1.1.       Background to the Study............................................................................................................ 63
     1.2.       Study Objectives ........................................................................................................................ 63
     1.3.       The Study Area .......................................................................................................................... 63
     1.4.       The Study Team ........................................................................................................................ 74
     1.5.       Structure of the Report............................................................................................................... 74

2.        Study Approach .............................................................................................................................. 96
     2.1.    Consultation ............................................................................................................................... 96
     2.2.    Data Collection .......................................................................................................................... 96
     2.3.    Model Development ................................................................................................................... 96
     2.4.    Review of Existing and Potential Schemes .............................................................................. 107
     2.5.    Development of Growth Scenarios .......................................................................................... 107
     2.6.    Problems and Issues ............................................................................................................... 107
     2.7.    Assessment of Economic Activity and Regeneration ............................................................... 107
     2.8.    Identification of Options ........................................................................................................... 107
     2.9.    Assessment and Appraisal ...................................................................................................... 118
     2.10.   Strategy Consultation............................................................................................................... 118
     2.11.   Implementation Plan ................................................................................................................ 118
     2.12.   Draft Final Report .................................................................................................................... 118
     2.13.   Final Report ............................................................................................................................. 118

3.          Policy Context ............................................................................................................................. 1310
     3.1.       Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1310
     3.2.       National.................................................................................................................................. 1310
     3.3.       Regional ................................................................................................................................. 1310
     3.4.       Local ...................................................................................................................................... 1411

4.          Consultation................................................................................................................................ 1815
     4.1.      Steering Group ...................................................................................................................... 1815
     4.2.      Wider Consultees .................................................................................................................. 1815
     4.3.      Press Release ....................................................................................................................... 1916
     4.4.      Study Website ........................................................................................................................ 1916
     4.5.      Poster .................................................................................................................................... 2017

5.          Data Collection ........................................................................................................................... 2219
     5.1.      Existing Data Sources............................................................................................................ 2219
     5.2.      Journey Time Surveys ........................................................................................................... 2219
     5.3.      Freight Surveys ...................................................................................................................... 2320

6.          Model Development .................................................................................................................... 2623
     6.1.      Overview ................................................................................................................................ 2623
     6.2.      Highway Model ...................................................................................................................... 2623
     6.3.      Matrix Enhancement .............................................................................................................. 2623
     6.4.      Network Enhancement........................................................................................................... 2724
     6.5.      Mode Choice and Public Transport Models ........................................................................... 2724
     6.6.      Validation ............................................................................................................................... 2825

7.          Transport Baseline Assessment ............................................................................................... 3128
     7.1.       Mode Split .............................................................................................................................. 3128
     7.2.       Distance to Work ................................................................................................................... 3128
     7.3.       Destination of Work Trips....................................................................................................... 3128

8.          Existing and Potential Schemes ............................................................................................... 3532
     8.1.       Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 3532
     8.2.       Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road ............................................................................... 3532
     8.3.       Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway (Phases 1-3) .................................................................. 3532
     8.4.       M55 – Norcross Route Options .............................................................................................. 3633
     8.5.       Completion of the M55-Heyhouses Link Road ....................................................................... 3633
     8.6.       Quality Bus Corridors ............................................................................................................. 3633
     8.7.       Route Management Strategies (RMS) ................................................................................... 3834
     8.8.       Travel Change Measures ....................................................................................................... 3935

9.          Transport Problems and Issues ................................................................................................ 4137
     9.1.       Overview ................................................................................................................................ 4137
     9.2.       Impact of A585 Route Management Strategy (RMS) Proposals ............................................ 4137
     9.3.       Congestion on North-South Routes in Blackpool ................................................................... 4238
     9.4.         Future of the Port ................................................................................................................... 4238
     9.5.         Future of Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway ............................................................................ 4238
     9.6.         Prospects for Rail .................................................................................................................. 4339
     9.7.         Potential Impact of Travel Change Measures ........................................................................ 4339
     9.8.         Impact of Blackpool Masterplan Proposals ............................................................................ 4439
     9.9.         Fleetwood – Thornton Development Corridor ........................................................................ 4440
     9.10.        Future Growth of Blackpool Airport ........................................................................................ 4541

10. Forecasting the Future ............................................................................................................... 4743
  10.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 4743
  10.2. Passenger Trips ..................................................................................................................... 4743
  10.3. Freight.................................................................................................................................... 5147
  10.4. Forecast Trip Growth 2004-2016 ........................................................................................... 5349

11. Identification of Options ............................................................................................................ 5652
  11.1. Specification of the Do Minimum ........................................................................................... 5652
  11.2. Potential Measures for Assessment ...................................................................................... 5652
  11.3. Development of Strategies ..................................................................................................... 6459

12. Strategy Assessment ................................................................................................................. 6762
  12.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 6762
  12.2. Assessment Methodology ...................................................................................................... 6762
  12.3. Assessment of the Do Minimum (2016) ................................................................................. 6863
  12.4. Assessment against Study Objectives ................................................................................... 6964
  12.5. Government Objectives ......................................................................................................... 7065
  12.6. Exclusion Analysis ................................................................................................................. 7972
  12.7. Summary of Strategy Assessment against Objectives........................................................... 8274
  12.8. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 8375

13. The Recommended Plan ............................................................................................................ 8677
  13.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 8677
  13.2. The Plan ................................................................................................................................ 8677
  13.3. Appraisal Summary Table...................................................................................................... 8677
  13.4. Regeneration ......................................................................................................................... 8778
  13.5. Implementation ...................................................................................................................... 8879
  13.6. Summary ............................................................................................................................... 8879

Appendix A – Economic Activity and Regeneration .......................................................................... 9181

Appendix B – Appraisal Summary Tables .......................................................................................... 9787

Appendix C – Traffic Flow Diagrams .................................................................................................. 9989

Appendix D – Coarse Assessments.................................................................................................. 10191

1.          Introduction.........................................................................................................................................
     1.1.       Background to the Study................................................................................................................
     1.2.       Study Objectives ............................................................................................................................
     1.3.       The Study Area ..............................................................................................................................
     1.4.       The Study Team ............................................................................................................................
     1.5.       Structure of the Report...................................................................................................................

2.        Study Approach ..................................................................................................................................
     2.1.    Consultation ...................................................................................................................................
     2.2.    Data Collection ..............................................................................................................................
     2.3.    Model Development .......................................................................................................................
     2.4.    Review of Existing and Potential Schemes ....................................................................................
     2.5.    Development of Growth Scenarios ................................................................................................
     2.6.    Problems and Issues .....................................................................................................................
     2.7.    Assessment of Economic Activity and Regeneration .....................................................................
     2.8.    Identification of Options .................................................................................................................
     2.9.    Assessment and Appraisal ............................................................................................................
     2.10.   Strategy Consultation.....................................................................................................................
     2.11.   Implementation Plan ......................................................................................................................
     2.12.   Draft Final Report ..........................................................................................................................
     2.13.   Final Report ...................................................................................................................................

3.          Policy Context .....................................................................................................................................
     3.1.       Introduction ....................................................................................................................................
     3.2.       National..........................................................................................................................................
     3.3.       Regional .........................................................................................................................................
     3.4.       Local ..............................................................................................................................................
4.          Consultation........................................................................................................................................
     4.1.      Steering Group ..............................................................................................................................
     4.2.      Wider Consultees ..........................................................................................................................
     4.3.      Press Release ...............................................................................................................................
     4.4.      Study Website ................................................................................................................................
     4.5.      Poster ............................................................................................................................................

5.          Data Collection ...................................................................................................................................
     5.1.      Existing Data Sources....................................................................................................................
     5.2.      Journey Time Surveys ...................................................................................................................
     5.3.      Freight Surveys ..............................................................................................................................

6.          Model Development ............................................................................................................................
     6.1.      Overview ........................................................................................................................................
     6.2.      Highway Model ..............................................................................................................................
     6.3.      Matrix Enhancement ......................................................................................................................
     6.4.      Network Enhancement...................................................................................................................
     6.5.      Mode Choice and Public Transport Models ...................................................................................
     6.6.      Validation .......................................................................................................................................

7.          Transport Baseline Assessment .......................................................................................................
     7.1.       Mode Split ......................................................................................................................................
     7.2.       Distance to Work ...........................................................................................................................
     7.3.       Destination of Work Trips...............................................................................................................

8.          Existing and Potential Schemes .......................................................................................................
     8.1.       Introduction ....................................................................................................................................
     8.2.       Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road .......................................................................................
     8.3.       Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway (Phases 1-3) ..........................................................................
     8.4.       M55 – Norcross Route Options ......................................................................................................
     8.5.       Completion of the M55-Heyhouses Link Road ...............................................................................
     8.6.       Quality Bus Corridors .....................................................................................................................
     8.7.       Route Management Strategies (RMS) ...........................................................................................
     8.8.       Travel Change Measures ...............................................................................................................

9.        Transport Problems and Issues ........................................................................................................
     9.1.     Overview ........................................................................................................................................
     9.2.     Impact of A585 Route Management Strategy (RMS) Proposals ....................................................
     9.3.     Congestion on North-South Routes in Blackpool ...........................................................................
     9.4.     Future of the Port ...........................................................................................................................
     9.5.     Future of Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway ....................................................................................
     9.6.     Prospects for Rail ..........................................................................................................................
     9.7.     Potential Impact of Travel Change Measures ................................................................................
     9.8.     Impact of Blackpool Masterplan Proposals ....................................................................................
     9.9.     Fleetwood – Thornton Development Corridor ................................................................................
     9.10.    Future Growth of Blackpool Airport ................................................................................................

10. Forecasting the Future .......................................................................................................................
  10.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................
  10.2. Passenger Trips .............................................................................................................................
  10.3. Freight............................................................................................................................................
  10.4. Forecast Trip Growth 2004-2016 ...................................................................................................

11. Identification of Options ....................................................................................................................
  11.1. Specification of the Do Minimum ...................................................................................................
  11.2. Potential Measures for Assessment ..............................................................................................
  11.3. Development of Strategies .............................................................................................................

12. Strategy Assessment .........................................................................................................................
  12.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................
  12.2. Assessment Methodology ..............................................................................................................
  12.3. Assessment of the Do Minimum (2016) .........................................................................................
  12.4. Assessment against Study Objectives ...........................................................................................
  12.5. Government Objectives .................................................................................................................
  12.6. Exclusion Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 71
  12.7. Summary of Strategy Assessment against Objectives...................................................................
  12.8. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 73

13. The Recommended Plan ................................................................................................................ 76
  13.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 76
  13.2. The Plan .................................................................................................................................... 76
  13.3. Appraisal Summary Table.......................................................................................................... 76
     13.4.        Regeneration ............................................................................................................................. 77
     13.5.        Implementation .......................................................................................................................... 77
     13.6.        Summary ................................................................................................................................... 78

Appendix A – Economic Activity and Regeneration .............................................................................. 80

Appendix B – Appraisal Summary Tables .............................................................................................. 86

Appendix C – Traffic Flow Diagrams ...................................................................................................... 88

Appendix D – Coarse Assessments........................................................................................................ 90

1.          Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 1
     1.1.       Background to the Study.............................................................................................................. 1
     1.2.       Study Objectives .......................................................................................................................... 1
     1.3.       The Study Area ............................................................................................................................ 1
     1.4.       The Study Team .......................................................................................................................... 1
     1.5.       Structure of the Report................................................................................................................. 1

2.        Study Approach ................................................................................................................................ 1
     2.1.    Consultation ................................................................................................................................. 1
     2.2.    Data Collection ............................................................................................................................ 1
     2.3.    Model Development ..................................................................................................................... 1
     2.4.    Review of Existing and Potential Schemes .................................................................................. 1
     2.5.    Development of Growth Scenarios .............................................................................................. 1
     2.6.    Problems and Issues ................................................................................................................... 1
     2.7.    Assessment of Economic Activity and Regeneration ................................................................... 1
     2.8.    Identification of Options ............................................................................................................... 1
     2.9.    Assessment and Appraisal .......................................................................................................... 1
     2.10.   Strategy Consultation................................................................................................................... 1
     2.11.   Implementation Plan .................................................................................................................... 1
     2.12.   Draft Final Report ........................................................................................................................ 1
     2.13.   Final Report ................................................................................................................................. 1

3.          Policy Context ................................................................................................................................... 1
     3.1.       Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1
     3.2.       National........................................................................................................................................ 1
     3.3.       Regional ....................................................................................................................................... 1
     3.4.       Local ............................................................................................................................................ 1

4.          Consultation...................................................................................................................................... 1
     4.1.      Steering Group ............................................................................................................................ 1
     4.2.      Wider Consultees ........................................................................................................................ 1
     4.3.      Press Release ............................................................................................................................. 1
     4.4.      Study Website .............................................................................................................................. 1
     4.5.      Poster .......................................................................................................................................... 1

5.          Data Collection ................................................................................................................................. 1
     5.1.      Existing Data Sources.................................................................................................................. 1
     5.2.      Journey Time Surveys ................................................................................................................. 1
     5.3.      Freight Surveys ............................................................................................................................ 1

6.          Model Development .......................................................................................................................... 1
     6.1.      Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 1
     6.2.      Highway Model ............................................................................................................................ 1
     6.3.      Matrix Enhancement .................................................................................................................... 1
     6.4.      Network Enhancement................................................................................................................. 1
     6.5.      Mode Choice and Public Transport Models ................................................................................. 1
     6.6.      Validation ..................................................................................................................................... 1

7.          Transport Baseline Assessment ..................................................................................................... 1
     7.1.       Mode Split .................................................................................................................................... 1
     7.2.       Distance to Work ......................................................................................................................... 1
     7.3.       Destination of Work Trips............................................................................................................. 1

8.          Existing and Potential Schemes ..................................................................................................... 1
     8.1.       Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1
     8.2.       Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road ..................................................................................... 1
     8.3.       Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway (Phases 1-3) ........................................................................ 1
     8.4.       M55 – Norcross Route Options .................................................................................................... 1
     8.5.       Completion of the M55-Heyhouses Link Road ............................................................................. 1
     8.6.       Quality Bus Corridors ................................................................................................................... 1
     8.7.       Route Management Strategies (RMS) ......................................................................................... 1
     8.8.        Travel Change Measures ............................................................................................................. 1

9.        Transport Problems and Issues ...................................................................................................... 1
     9.1.     Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 1
     9.2.     Impact of A585 Route Management Strategy (RMS) Proposals .................................................. 1
     9.3.     Congestion on North-South Routes in Blackpool ......................................................................... 1
     9.4.     Future of the Port ......................................................................................................................... 1
     9.5.     Future of Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway .................................................................................. 1
     9.6.     Prospects for Rail ........................................................................................................................ 1
     9.7.     Potential Impact of Travel Change Measures .............................................................................. 1
     9.8.     Impact of Blackpool Masterplan Proposals .................................................................................. 1
     9.9.     Fleetwood – Thornton Development Corridor .............................................................................. 1
     9.10.    Future Growth of Blackpool Airport .............................................................................................. 1

10. Forecasting the Future ..................................................................................................................... 1
  10.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1
  10.2. Passenger Trips ........................................................................................................................... 1
  10.3. Freight.......................................................................................................................................... 1
  10.4. Forecast Trip Growth 2004-2016 ................................................................................................. 1

11. Identification of Option .................................................................................................................... 1
  11.1. Specification of the Do Minimum ................................................................................................. 1
  11.2. Potential Measures for Assessment ............................................................................................ 1
  11.3. Development of Strategies ........................................................................................................... 1

12. Strategy Assessment ....................................................................................................................... 1
  12.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1
  12.2. Assessment Methodology ............................................................................................................ 1
  12.3. Assessment of the Do Minimum (2016) ....................................................................................... 1
  12.4. Assessment against Study Objectives ......................................................................................... 1
  12.5. Government Objectives ............................................................................................................... 1
  12.6. Exclusion Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 1
  12.7. Summary of Strategy Assessment against Objectives................................................................. 1
  12.8. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 1

13. The Recommended Plan .................................................................................................................. 1
  13.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 1
  13.2. The Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 1
  13.3. Appraisal Summary Table............................................................................................................ 1
  13.4. Regeneration ............................................................................................................................... 1
  13.5. Implementation ............................................................................................................................ 1
  13.6. Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 1

Appendix A – Economic Activity and Regeneration ................................................................................ 1

Appendix B – Appraisal Summary Tables ................................................................................................ 1

Appendix C – Traffic Flow Diagrams ........................................................................................................ 1

Appendix D – Coarse Assessments.......................................................................................................... 1
1         INTRODUCTION




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1. Introduction

1.1. Background to the Study
The overall aim of the study was to examine options for the Norcross-M55 corridor and to appraise
improvements to principal roads in the Fylde Coast urban area. The study covers all modes and takes
account of the changing demands for travel in light of regeneration proposals for Blackpool and Fleetwood.

The Fylde Coast includes many major employers in the aircraft, nuclear and chemical industries. Blackpool
is also an important administration centre, accommodating large national and regional office headquarters
such as the Bonds and Stock Office and Department of Social Security, as well as banking, insurance and
commercial services to cater for the sub-regional population of a third of a million.

The region is reasonably well linked to the main transport arteries that provide national and international
access, but the A585(T) between the M55 and Fleetwood is under some pressure. In addition, the
highway demands resulting from regeneration planned through the Blackpool Masterplan, Fleetwood to
Thornton Development Corridor and growing demand for freight access to the Port of Fleetwood, will place
significant pressures on the principal highway infrastructure.

The Norcross-M55 scheme has been the subject of study since 1988 and was being progressed until the
preferred scheme was removed from the roads programme over 10 years ago. The preferred scheme the
Red Route, which closely follows the line of the Blackpool boundary, was not well received by the public,
but had the advantage of alleviating pressure on the A585(T) as well as on some of the north-south routes
through Blackpool. The cost of the scheme was high and the benefit to cost ratio was lower than some of
the other alternatives further to the east. The scheme had considerable environmental impact and was
considered to be high risk in engineering terms.

1.2. Study Objectives
 The objective of the study was to identify an agreed strategy that will deliver solutions to:
   Increasing volumes of traffic on the A585(T) between the M55 and Fleetwood;
   Congestion and environmental problems adversely affecting the local communities along the A585
    (T);
   Increasing traffic volumes and congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool and throughout the
    urban coastal strip;
   Growing demand for freight access to the Port of Fleetwood and all-user access to the Wyre
    Peninsula; and
   Provision of capacity and access to support regeneration of the Blackpool and Wyre urban areas.

The above objectives provide a very clear emphasis for the study in that the focus is on strategic access
and the identification of the major transport constraints to development. The study was not to examine
local issues, but concentrate resources on the development of an over-arching strategy for access to the
region.

1.3. The Study Area
The study area adopted for the review stages of the study, including the data collection, transport baseline
assessment, review of transport problems and issues and assessment of economic activity and
regeneration is shown on the map below. This incorporated all of Blackpool Borough, the urban area of
Wyre and some predominantly rural areas of Fylde.




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For forecasting purposes, the study area was extended to that defined in the study brief, which includes
the whole of the Fylde Coast from Fleetwood and the River Wyre as the northern boundary to the River
Ribble as the Southern boundary. The eastern boundary equates to a line north and south through the
town of Kirkham.

1.4.      The Study Team
The team has drawn together inputs from FaberMaunsell and Roger Tym & Partners to cover transport
planning, transport infrastructure engineering, freight, environment, land use and economics.

FaberMaunsell have been lead consultant and are responsible for transport planning, consultation, data
collection, model development, strategy development and evaluation. Roger Tym & Partners (RT&P) are
specialists in economic development, planning and urban and regional economics. RT&P have taken
responsibility for forecasting, as well as the Assessment of Economic Activity and Regeneration.

FaberMaunsell have directed and managed the project, co-ordinated all aspects of the work and been the
principal point of contact with the client Steering Group.

1.5. Structure of the Report
After this introduction, this report has 132 further chapters, which are as follows:
    Chapter 2 provides an overview of the study approach and methodology;
    Chapter 3 outlines the national, regional and local policy context;
    The consultation carried out is described in Chapter 4;
    Chapter 5 details the data collection undertaken as part of the study;
    Chapter 6 sets out the transport models which were developed and enhanced in order to test the
     strategy options;
A transport baseline assessment is provided in Chapter 7;
    Chapter 87 details the existing and potential schemes which are pertinent to the study area;
    An overview of the transport problems and issues in the area is provided in Chapter 98;
    Chapter 109 sets the context in terms of economic activity and regeneration;
    Chapter 110 explains the forecasting methodology and sets out the forecast trip growth rates;
    The strategy options and component measures are defined in Chapter 121;
    The strategies identified are assessed within Chapter 142; and
    Chapter 143 sets out the Recommended Plan.

The report also includes four appendices, which are as follows:
   Appendix A provides an assessment of economic activity and regeneration.                                                                    Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
   The Appraisal Summary Tables are included in Appendix B.
   Appendix C includes the traffic flow diagrams; and
   Appendix D provides a coarse assessment of measures.




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2         STUDY APPROACH




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2. Study Approach

2.1. Consultation
The consultation process has required careful management given the potential for overlap and confusion
with the A585 Route Management Strategy (RMS), which also included a significant amount of
consultation. For the purposes of this study, consultation has been undertaken with the Steering Group,
Wider Consultees and the general public. The public consultation has not however included formal
consultation, as there was considered to be a high level of overlap with the A585 RMS consultation, which
had recently been completed.

The study team has worked closely with the Steering Group throughout the study. The team met with the
Steering Group members individually to discuss problems and issues in the study area. The study brief
included a list of approximately 100 Wider Consultees and it was recommended that face-to-face meeting
were held with 17 of the organisations. Appropriate letters were sent out that explained the study
objectives and invited comments. The face-to-face meetings were held during August 2004. The public
consultation has included the setting up of a study website (www.fyldecoast.info), a press release
(distributed by Lancashire County Council) and a poster which has been distributed for display in public
libraries in the study area. Further details on the consultation process are contained in Chapter 4.

2.2. Data Collection
Discussions with officers from Lancashire County Council and Blackpool Council revealed that there is a
considerable amount of traffic data available covering the whole study area. ATC (Automatic Traffic
Count) and Manual Classified Count (MCC) data was obtained for approximately 40 sites in the study
area. The majority of the counts are up-to-date and have been collected during 2003/2004. The ATC sites
provide an appreciation of hourly, daily and seasonal variation in traffic flow, which is particularly helpful in
the context of this study.

The existing traffic count data has been supplemented by specialised freight surveys, carried out by the
study team, which have been undertaken at a number of sites on the A585 (T). These have been used to
develop a fuller understanding of goods movements, focusing particularly on the impact of port-related
traffic on the route. The Highways Agency also provided ITIS journey time data for the trunk road network,
which is derived from GPS satellite navigation systems. Given the excessive cost of obtaining equivalent
data for other areas of the trunk road network, moving observer journey time surveys were undertaken on
7 routes in the study area.

No public transport surveys were undertaken as part of the data collection process. Electronic Ticket
Machine (ETM) data has been obtained from the Stagecoach ERG system and Blackpool Transport were
able to supply equivalent data. This data provide key inputs in to the mode choice model (see Chapter 6).
The results of the data collection programme are reported in Chapter 5.

2.3. Model Development
Modelling of the existing transportation supply and demand was a key component of the study since data
from the models have been used to assess and appraise the various proposals and to assist in the
development of a coherent strategy.

The approach to modelling aimed to make the best use of the existing highway model of the Fylde Coast
area. The model was limited to a representation of the movements of private vehicles, such as cars and
goods vehicles, and covers only the evening peak hour. The accuracy to which this model replicated
traffic movements in the area was not sufficient for the needs of the current study and for this reason it was
necessary to enhance the model so that current traffic movements are reproduced to a higher degree of
accuracy for both the morning and evening peaks. Additionally, a means of modelling public transport and
the potential switch from car to non-car modes, ie a mode choice and public transport model was required.

The model enhancement incorporated a number of elements:
   Development of AM and PM journey to work trip matrices based on 2001 Census data;
   Development of AM and PM ‘other’ (e.g. leisure, retail, academic) trip matrices based on National Trip
    End totals for the region and a gravity model distribution;
   Matrices of freight movements derived from specialised freight surveys and classified traffic counts;
   Updating the highway model network to include new links and junctions identified through discussion
    with Lancashire County Council;
   Validation of the highway model across screenlines against traffic counts;
   Development of a public transport model to reflect generalised cost of travelling by rail and bus in the
    area to feed into a mode-choice model;
   Forecasting of growth scenarios for application to highway and public transport matrices, taking into
    account changes in population, employment, economic growth and development aspirations; and
   Creation and calibration of the mode-choice model to assess change in mode share relative to car as
    a result of major public transport proposals.

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Further details on the aspects of the model enhancements are discussed in Chapter 6.

2.4. Review of Existing and Potential Schemes
The data gathering process has involved the collection of information on existing schemes and potential
schemes pertinent to the study area. Given the strategic nature of the study, the review does not
incorporate minor schemes such as junction improvements on the local road network. The review
(Chapter 8) includes a description of each scheme, background information, estimated costs (where
available) and scheme status (committed, proposed, potential) The impacts of the schemes are assessed
at the Assessment and Appraisal stage.

2.5. Development of Growth Scenarios
At the study inception meeting it was agreed that low, medium and high forecast scenarios should be
generated for 2016. This would ensure consistency with the Lancashire Structure Plan. A meeting was
set up with planners at Fylde, Blackpool, Wyre and Lancashire to discuss developments which could
impact on travel movement and behaviour in the study area. Following the meeting, a specification was
provided detailing the criteria for those to be incorporated in the forecasting process. The meeting was led
by Roger Tym & Partners, who are specialist planning consultants and are responsible for the forecasting
aspects of the study.

One of the main determinants of trip growth is the assumption on demographic, economic and social
change. For the evaluation of strategies, it is also important that robust scenarios are developed. As such,
these should include a range of potential outcomes from the Blackpool regeneration proposals,
incorporating changes in visitor numbers.

The growth scenarios have been informed by the following inputs:
   TEMPRO (the Government’s standard trip projection programme);
   Working Futures – New Projections of Occupational Employment (2004);
   Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (JLSP) 2001-2016;
   Local Plans 2001-2016 (Blackpool, Fylde, Wyre);
   Growth forecasts for Blackpool Airport; and
   Regeneration proposals for Blackpool (Urban Regeneration Company Commencement Business
    Plan: September 2004).

To inform the spatial development of these scenarios information has also been sourced on the location,
size and proposed use of major new employment sites (minimum 1 Ha, or 2,500 sqm), and for major
housing sites with permission or allocations (minimum 1 Ha or 25 dwellings).

The trip matrices in the models are largely based on productions and attractions at output area from the
Travel to Work data and the demographic information from the 2001 Census. The future year matrices are
to be generated on the basis of forecast changes in the number of households, population and
employment, but also forecast changes in visitor numbers which would result from the regeneration
proposals in Blackpool and plans for the growth of Blackpool Airport.

2.6. Problems and Issues
This assessment uses the information gathering and review, in addition to the individual meetings with
Steering Group members and Wider Consultees to draw out the key problems and issues in the study
area. This identifies a number of existing schemes, which if progressed, could have a significant impact on
transport in the study area. For example, congestion on the A585 (T) and the impact of Route
Management Strategy recommendations has been highlighted as a key issue. Others include the future of
the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway, the future of the Port of Fleetwood and the impact of the Blackpool
Masterplan proposals. This work is incorporated within Chapter 8 of this report.

2.7.      Assessment of Economic Activity and Regeneration
This task has been undertaken by Roger Tym & Partners, who are specialist planning and economic
consultants. Key economic and regeneration indicators are examined for each of the districts located in
the study area and for a ward-based definition of the study area. Figures are also compared against
county, regional and national data. The analysis includes examining employment change, both overall and
by sector, levels of economic activity, qualifications and the prospects in terms of regeneration and
economic development.

2.8.      Identification of Options
In the development of Options, the first task was the specification of the Do Minimum transport network for
2016, which was identified in close consultation with the Steering Group. This enabled the development of
seven strategies comprising measures over and above the Do Minimum. Measures which had the
potential to address the study objectives were identified through the consultation process, review of
reference documents, and identification of problems and issues.

Six of the seven strategies identified had a common set of measures, but were differentiated by the various
M55-Norcross route options.

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2.9. Assessment and Appraisal
This stage followed the identification of strategy options (incorporating scheme identification). As the study
brief indicates, the assessment and appraisal of the strategy options has been relatively broad. However,
it has been necessary to demonstrate that where possible that all issues have been considered and
quantified for each strategy option.

The appraisal process comprised two stages:
   Use of a coarse appraisal framework to classify impacts by different providers and users and rank the
    various strategies; and
   Option testing reflecting the multi-modal version of the Government’s New Approach to Appraisal
    (NATA) and associated guidance from the DfT Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG).

2.10. Strategy Consultation
The preferred and alternative strategies will be consulted on with the key stakeholders and Wider
Consultees. The approach is as follows:
   Prepare and distribute a set of strategy documents seeking views from all relevant parties;
   Revise strategy in light of above consultations; and
   Present revised strategy to the Study Steering Group for confirmation.

2.11. Implementation Plan
An integrated plan has been developed which complements the long term regeneration and growth goals
for the study area. The recommended plan of interventions combines a number of inter-related actions
spanning the short, medium and long-term. A fully integrated plan that illustrates how individual measures
fit the long-term plan was developed. The time component is a key aspect of such a plan. The plan also
identifies those with responsibility for delivering each measure and option within the strategy.

2.12. Draft Final Report
The draft final report put the study in context in terms of policy and reported on each stage of the study as
outlined in this approach. Importantly, the report also summarised the options considered, the reasons for
the elimination of options, the analysis undertaken with regard to assessment and appraisal, the selection
of the recommended plan and way forward.

2.13. Final Report
The draft Final Report has been revised following comments received by the Steering Group. This
amended version forms the Final Report for the study. The report will provide the basis for the Steering
Group to take forward the component measures of the recommended plan.




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3         POLICY CONTEXT




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3. Policy Context

3.1. Introduction
The policy context within which the study has been undertaken is guided at a national, regional and local
level. The new Transport White Paper (published is July 2004) is the key document at the national level,
the transport priorities for the north west region are set out in Regional Planning Guidance for the North
West (RPG 13), now the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) and the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan along
with the Local Transport Plans for Blackpool and Lancashire provide the local context.

3.2.      National
The “Future of Transport: A Network for 2030” was published in July 2004. This White Paper looks at the
factors that will shape travel and transport over the next thirty years and sets out how the Government will
respond to the increasing demand for travel. The paper looks in particular at maximising the benefits of
transport while minimising the negative impact on people and the environment.

It is stressed that a transport network is required that can meet the challenges of a growing economy and
the increasing demand for travel, but can also achieve environmental objectives.

The objectives are to deliver a transport network by 2030 with:
   The road network providing a more reliable and freer-flowing service for both personal travel and
    freight, with people able to make informed choices about how and when they travel;
   The rail network providing a fast, reliable and efficient service, particularly for interurban journeys and
    commuting into large urban areas;
   Bus services that are reliable, flexible, convenient and tailored to local needs;
   Making walking and cycling a real alternative for local trips; and
   Ports and airports providing improved international and domestic links.

The strategy is built around the themes of:
   Sustained investment;
   Improvements in transport management; and
   Planning ahead.

In terms of investment, the White Paper states that spending by the Department for Transport will rise by
an annual average of 4.5% in real terms between 2005-06 and 2007-08. This higher level of spending will
then grow in real terms by 2.25% each year through to 2015. Under improvements in transport
management, the document emphasises better traffic management as a tool for easing congestion.
Additional capacity is to be added to the road network where it makes sense economically and
environmentally. There is also an emphasis on encouraging local authorities to procure bus services
through Quality Contracts. The theme of planning ahead acknowledges that road building will not provide
the solution to all problems on the network and so the Government is to lead the debate on road pricing.

3.3. Regional
A transport strategy for the Fylde Coast needs to be developed within the context of Regional Planning
Guidance for the North West (RPG 13), now the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). The most recent
version of the document is a draft partial review of the guidance, which was submitted in March 2004.

Under the Potential Transport Studies section, the guidance states that there are a number of regionally
significant transport issues in the North West requiring further analysis. This study is one of seven studies
and the need to identify current transport and land-use issues and develop sustainable solutions is
stressed.

Blackpool is referred to under ‘Policy SD3 Key Towns and Cities outside the North West Metropolitan
Area’. The guidance states that:

“Blackpool is a tourist destination of regional and national importance and is a sub-regional centre for the
Fylde Coast. There is a need to provide high-quality modern facilities to support these roles”.

Under Policy ‘T5 The Region’s Airports’, the recent growth of Blackpool Airport, particularly in scheduled
flights within the UK and in Ireland is acknowledged. It is also recognised that there are opportunities for
significant further expansion in the offshore market, which could be facilitated by apron capacity
enhancement and extension to the runway. It is considered that better access to the airport by public
transport is desirable and that travel plans should be set to reduce the number of staff travelling to work by
car. In the longer term, targets for passenger mode split could be set as the airport continues to expand.

In Policy ‘T6 The Region’s Ports’, it is stated that development plan and local transport plans should
recognise and support the various roles of the North West’s ports. The Port of Fleetwood is identified as
one of four in the North West categorised by the Department for Transport as a major port (ie one with a
total cargo of at least 1 million tonnes per annum). The recent upturn in traffic from Fleetwood is also
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acknowledged with the port handling over 1.5 million tonnes of freight in 2002; particularly in high value,
time critical consumer products and perishable goods.

3.4.      Local

Lancashire Structure Plan
The Replacement Joint Lancashire Structure Plan 2001-2016 aims to secure the efficient and effective use
of land in the interest of the public. It sets out strategic policies and proposals for the development, use and
conservation of land in Lancashire and for the management of traffic. It establishes the amount of
development (housing provision, business and industrial land provision) and the broad distribution of
development (re: settlement hierarchy and Strategic Locations for Development).

Lancashire County Council and the Borough Councils of Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool, as Joint
Structure Plan Authorities, have prepared the Deposit Edition of the Replacement Joint Lancashire
Structure Plan 2001-2016 and the Proposed Changes to the Deposit Edition of the Structure Plan. The
document is now at the Pre-Adoptive Completionmposite Edition (PACE) stage.

The strategy, proposals and policies of the structure plan were ‘tested’ at the Examination in Public (EIP) in
January 2004 and generally endorsed by the Panel. The Panel recommended that Lytham St Annes
becomes part of the Blackpool Principal Urban Area, which was accepted by the Joint Structure Plan
Authorities. Post EIP Proposed Modifications to the Structure Plan were subject to public consultation in
October 2004. The JLSP (2001-2016) is due to be adopted at the end of March 2005 and will replace the
Lancashire Structure Plan 1991-2006, which has been operative since February 1997.

The overarching planning and transportation goals are highlighted in General Policy 1 of the Structure
Plan:

“Development will be located primarily in the principal urban areas, main towns, market towns and
strategic locations for development and will contribute to achieving:
       a) The efficient use of land and other resources;
       b) High accessibility for all by walking, cycling and public transport, with trip intensive uses
             focussed on town centres;
       c) A balance of land uses that helps achieve sustainable patterns of development;
       d) Accelerated rates of business development in the regeneration priority areas;
       e) Appropriate development at Blackpool Airport, ports and regional investment sites;
       f) Urban regeneration, including priority use of brownfield sites and enhanced roles for town
             centres as development locations and public transport hubs;
       g) Rural regeneration;
       h) A high quality built environment.”

The Structure Plan includes a number of objectives and targets for the period 2006-2016. Two are
particularly relevant within the context of this study:

      Help to deliver a higher value added, higher wage economy. Target of a 25% increase in the rate of
        Development of business and industrial land in the Regeneration Priority Areas 2001-2016,                                                Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
       compared with the 1991-2000 rate;
      Achieve a highly effective and efficient transport system. Associated targets are:
                 90% of new development to be within 400 metres of an existing or proposed bus stop or
                     within 800 metres of an existing or proposed railway station;
                 Reduce traffic flows to and from the centres of Principal Urban Areas and Main Towns
                     by 5% for 2016 compared to 2001;
                 A 45% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents by
                     2016 compared with 1994-1998 average.

Specific reference is made to the Norcross-M55 Corridor under Policy 8 of the Structure Plan ‘strategic
road network and proposed improvements’. High traffic flows and congestion on north-south routes in the
area are considered to be having a ‘significant impact on the local economy, restricting access to the
regionally significant Port of Fleetwood and holding back the regeneration of Blackpool’. Proposed new
developments at strategic sites in Fleetwood (Docks-North East Thornton) are also considered to require
improved links to the motorway network. It should be noted that the Fylde Coast Easterly bypass was
included as a specific scheme in the original deposit edition of the Structure Plan, but has now been
replaced by the M55-Norcross Corridor under the Pre-Adoption Composite Edition (PACE).

Local Plans
As Borough and Unitary Authorities, Fylde, Blackpool and Wyre are charged with producing individual
Local Plans. These set out more detailed policies to guide development and control the use of land. The
plans are set within the strategic framework set by the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan.




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The Wyre Local Plan Review 2001-2016 (Deposit Draft) includes the following aim in relation to
transportation:

“To ensure that the level and quality of provision of transport infrastructure and services is consistent with
the development of a more environmentally sympathetic, safer, more energy efficient and generally more
sustainable pattern of land use activities”.

With reference to this study, Policy TRAN1 states that the route for the Fylde Coast Easterly Bypass will
continue to be safeguarded.

The Blackpool Local Plan (2001-2016), revised deposit draft (February 2004), section ‘accessibility and
safe journeys for all’ has the aim of:

“Promoting good accessibility by a variety of modes to key destinations, through the integration of
development and transport systems”.

Of specific relevance to this study is the current policy in relation to the longstanding proposal for a Fylde
Coast Easterly Bypass. The plan states that the proposal is:

“No longer included in the Plan and alternative solutions need to be sought to the growth of north-south
movements in the Norcross-M55 Corridor”.

The Fylde Local Plan does not include specific transportation aims or objectives, but relevant policies are
an emphasis on improving walking and cycling facilities, some expansion of on-street parking and the
safeguarding of the Fylde Coast Easterly Bypass and M55 to Heyhouses link.

Local Transport Plans
Whilst the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan covers the whole study area, Blackpool Council produces a
separate Local Transport Plan (LTP) given its status as a unitary authority. Fylde and Wyre Borough
Councils are both incorporated in the Lancashire Local Transport Plan. Together, the two plans provide
the principal funding and monitoring source for the study area.

The Lancashire Annual Progress Report for 2003/4 states that the LTP allocation was £25.39 million and
was supplemented by over £5 million of grants and contributions from the private sector and other
authorities. For 2004/2005 the allocation from Government has increased to £29.21 million.

A central pillar of a transport strategy is that it needs to contribute to the LTP objectives. Lancashire have
developed a set of transport objectives to contribute to the overarching corporate objectives. These are as
follows:
    Develop and maintain safe and effective transport systems;
    Improve the quality of life for the people of Lancashire and the quality of Lancashire’s environment;
    Contribute to the regeneration of Lancashire’s urban and rural areas;
    Plan a better and sustainable future for Lancashire; and
    Services are more efficient and economic and improve year on year.

An important element of the Local Transport Plan is demonstrating this through monitoring. There are a
number of national core and local indicators. The relevant monitoring targets in the LTP include:
   Number of bus journey passengers;
   Bus passenger satisfaction;
   Number of cycling trips;
   Number of deaths and serious injuries;
   Number of children killed and seriously injured;
   Light rail passenger journeys;
   Percentage of rural households within 13 minutes walk of an hourly or better bus service; and
   Congestion - average time lost per vehicle kilometre.

Performance against core indicators are considered to be generally good with improvements in local bus
services and road safety indicators remaining on target. Traffic growth on local roads is on target for below
5% over the plan period, although traffic on motorways and trunk roads is growing at a faster rate. Cycling
is identified as an area where the targets have not been met.

The commencement of the Fylde Coast study is referred to in the Lancashire LTP and states that the study
should provide solutions to the problems of increasing traffic volumes.

In Blackpool the core Local Transport Plan programme amounted to £3.47 million for 2003/2004. This was
supported by a range of additional funding sources (eg Single Capital Pot) to give a total budget of £9.55
million.

The provisional objectives for the Blackpool LTP 2 (2006-11) are as follows:
   Reduce the impact of traffic in the urban environment to improve air quality, personal safety and public
    health;
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     Ensure transport networks support sustainable local communities by allowing access to key work,
      leisure, social, shopping and healthcare opportunities with a full choice of mode wherever possible.
     Promote a step change in attitudes to transport that will support an improved local environment,
      ensure healthier travel choices and make streets and communities safer;
     Support economic growth while managing travel demand growth, by ensuring development is
      accessibly located for walking, cycling and public transport and by integrating parking with traffic
      management; and
     Manage and improve the transport infrastructure to deliver value for money, support economic growth
      and help community development.

In terms of progress towards targets, the 2003/2004 Annual Progress report states that equal numbers of
core indicators are ‘on track’ and ‘not on track’, while 68% of local indicators are ‘on track’. Bus patronage
increased after a reduction last year, and satisfaction with services is ‘on track’. Local road safety and
maintenance figures are also on target. There is a reduced scale programme for 2004/2005 and this will
focus on quality bus and road safety related work.

Economic Development Plans
This EconomicRegeneration Strategy for Blackpool is based on a number of guiding principles:
   The development of the existing partnership of equals to drive the strategy forward;
   The need to develop a healthy year round economy for businesses and individuals;
   The recognition that economic deprivation is the major cause of social problems in the town;
   Social inclusion as a core aim of the partnership;
   The need to strengthen Blackpool as a sub-regional centre for the Fylde coast; and
   The need to develop a sustainable development strategy into the next century.

The Corporate Plan represents Fylde Borough Council’s high level vision and performance statement
document. This includes the following objectives relating to the local economy:
   Promote and develop new and existing business;
   Work with partners to create employment opportunities for all;
   Develop and enhance the reputation of the borough as an excellent place to work, live and invest; and
   Create suitable conditions and a favourable environment for the local economy.

In Wyre, the key objectives in the Economic Development Plan for 2003/04 are all relevant to this study
and include:
   Increase job opportunities across Wyre by developing brownfield sites;
   Develop and promote the rural economy through joint working, including the land-based sector;
   Maximise the economic and environmental benefits of Tourism, by promoting quality Tourism, working
    to develop new opportunities and expanding the target markets, both day and staying visitors;
   Promote actively the potential of Fleetwood as a port including fishing;
   Lobby for improvements to the transport infrastructure;
   Attract resources by bidding appropriately for external funding;
   To improve business competitiveness by working in partnership with key business support
    organisations; and
   Work in partnership to secure the sustainability of our towns, and their environments; and
   Support regional and sub-regional economic development initiatives.




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4         CONSULTATION




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4. Consultation


4.1. Steering Group
At the inception meeting, it was agreed that a meeting should be set up to discuss problems and issues
pertinent to the study area. Given that this was to take place during the holiday period, it was considered
more appropriate to meet with the Steering Group members individually. This also enabled more open
and detailed discussions. The discussions are summarised in the Preliminary Report and the main issues
are incorporated in the identification of Problems and Issues (Chapter 9).

Table 4.1 Steering Group Face-to-Face Meetings
       Organisation              Representative (s)                                                     Venue                                   Date
 Blackpool Council          Bruce Allan Peter Cross, Ian                                       Blackpool Council                            3 August
                            Thompson and Jeremy Walker
 Fylde Borough Council      Tony Donnelly and Andrew                                           St Annes Town Hall                           4 August
                            Shore
 Highways Agency            Sue Mcloughlin, Lindsay Alder                                      Sunley Tower,                                2 August
                                                                                               Manchester
  Lancashire County                          Ray Worthington, Kate Press,                      Lancashire County                            2 August
  Council                                    Chris Anslow, Karen Galloway,                     Council, Preston
                                             Steven McCresh
  North West Regional                        Roy Newton, Dave Colbert,                         NWRA, Wigan                                  11 August
  Assembly                                   Dave Whyte
  Wyre Borough Council                       Colin Hirst, Anna Wilson                          Wyre Borough Council,                        21 July
                                                                                               Poulton


4.2. Wider Consultees
The study brief included a list of approximately 100 Wider Consultees, representing a range of
organisations across the study area. It was proposed that face-to-face meetings should be arranged with
17 of the organisations and that the remainder could be written to.

The 17 organisations were then contacted by the study team and given the opportunity of attending a
meeting. A schedule of the face-to-face meetings arranged is provided in the table below.

Table 4.2 Wider Consultees Face-to-Face Meetings
        Organisation            Representative (s)                                                  Venue                                   Date
 Wyre Business Forum        Ricky Horabin                                                  Wyre Borough Council,                       21 July
                                                                                           Poulton
  Blackpool Local Strategic                   Various stakeholders in                      Technology Management                       30 July
  Partnership                                 Blackpool                                    Centre
  ABP                                         Calum Cooper                                 ABP Fleetwood                               11 August
  Stena Line                                  Stewart Walker                               ABP Fleetwood                               11 August
  Singleton Parish Council                    Maxine Chew                                  Mains Road                                  11 August
  Blackpool Transport                         Steve Burd                                   Blackpool Transport                         11 August
  Little Eccleston with                       Various                                      Cartford Hotel                              16 August
  Larbreck Parish Council
  Stagecoach Lancashire                       Chris Bowles                                 Stagecoach, Preston                         20 August
  Freeport Village,                           Amanda Elliott, Nick Pakes                   Chamber of Commerce,                        19 August
  Fleetwood                                                                                Preston
  Central and West Lancs                      Hugh Evans                                   Chamber of Commerce,                        19 August
  Chamber of Commerce                                                                      Preston
  CPRE                                        David Clarke                                 Chamber of Commerce,                        19 August
                                                                                           Preston
  Blackpool Fylde and Wyre                    Keri Graham                                  Chamber of Commerce,                        19 August
  Hospitals NHS Trust                                                                      Preston
  Blackpool Airport                           Stephen Wiltshire                            Blackpool Airport                           16 September
  Blackpool Pleasure Beach                    David Cam                                    Blackpool Pleasure Beach                    21 September

The Blackpool Local Strategic Partnership covers a range of stakeholders and the study was an item on
the agenda at the July meeting. The Project Manager delivered a presentation, which was followed by a
question and answer session. The meeting at the Chamber of Commerce was attended by four
organisations and took the form of a workshop. A summary of the discussions is provided in the
Preliminary Report.



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A letter explaining the study and inviting comments was sent to the remaining Wider Consultees and
comments were received from the Environment Agency, English Nature and North West Development
Agency. The responses are also included in the Preliminary Report.

4.3. Press Release
A press release was compiled in conjunction with Lancashire County Council (LCC) and circulated to the
Steering Group prior to approval. The press release was then distributed by LCC to the relevant press.
This read as follows:

A NEW study is being carried out into transport for the Fylde Coast.

Consultants FaberMaunsell have been commissioned to look at transport options for the Norcross – M55
corridor and appraise improvements to principal roads in the Fylde Coast urban area. The study will cover
all forms of transport and take account of the changing demands for travel in light of regeneration
proposals for Blackpool and Fleetwood.

A spokesman explained: “This is basically an information and opinion gathering exercise to look at what
could be done to improve transport in the area. The public can find out more about the project and
contribute their opinions on our website or they can write to us.

“Once the report is complete, a strategy will be developed which will also incorporate more minor schemes
and implementation will be phased over a series of time periods. The study will form a key input in the
preparation of the regional transport strategy and form the basis for developing and seeking funding for
detailed schemes.”

The study is being managed by a steering group comprising of Lancashire County Council, Blackpool
Council, Fylde Borough Council, Wyre Borough Council, the Highways Agency, and the North West
Regional Assembly.

For further information, please visit www.fyldecoast.info or send your comments to:

Fylde Coast Sub-Regional Transport Study
FREEPOST NATS675
Warrington
Cheshire
WA1 1BR

4.4. Study Website
The study tender submission included a proposal to set up a website for the study. This was set up during
July 2004. The website address selected was www.fyldecoast.info

The site contained information on the study and forms the main focal point for up-to-date information for
members of the general public as well as stakeholders. Emphasis was put on clarity of design, ease of
navigation and access for all. All the text posted on the website was approved by the Steering Group.

The website had the following structure:
   The Study;
   Objectives;
   Study Outputs;
   Study Management;
   Consultations;
   Links; and
   Your Comments.

The site explained the context and aims of the study and details the study objectives. The outputs of the
study, the assessment of options and the development of a deliverable strategy is explained, in addition to
the management of the study by the Steering Group. The importance of consultation to the success of the
study was emphasised and the ‘your comments’ section, which allows comments to be posted via the
website. This included questions on home postcode, whether the person works in the study area, how
they travel to work, and what they consider to be the main transport related problems in the study area.
Links were set up to the relevant organisations on the Steering Group in addition to pages detailing the
Blackpool Masterplan and Fylde Coast Light Rail. The site also provided telephone contact details and a
Freepost address.




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The front page of the site is shown below.




4.5.      Poster
Given the extensive public consultation undertaken as part of the A585 Route Management Strategy, the
Steering Group were keen to limit the amount of public consultation. As such, the study has not
undertaken any large public exhibitions or surveys. However, it was considered appropriate to develop a
poster for display in public libraries across the study area. The poster provides a brief outline of the aims
of the study and provides a reference to the study website. Comments are also invited via a Freepost
address. The poster is shown below:




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5         DATA COLLECTION




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5. Data Collection

5.1. Existing Data Sources
Lancashire County Council and Blackpool Council hold a range of Automatic Traffic Count (ATC) and
Manual Classified Count (MCC) data for the study area. This has been used in conjunction with the 2001
Census Journey to Work data as the primary sources for the matrix building and highways model
validation process. Journey time data was also used in the model validation process and the Highways
Agency provided ITIS data derived from GPS satellite navigation systems for the trunk road network within
the study area, including the A585(T). The study team looked at the possibility of obtaining equivalent data
for non-trunk routes in the study area, but the costs were found to be prohibitively expensive.

No public transport surveys were undertaken as part of the data collection process. Electronic Ticket
Machine (ETM) data was obtained from the Stagecoach ERG system and Blackpool Transport have
provided equivalent data for relevant bus services and the Tramway.

5.2. Journey Time Surveys
Given the high cost of obtaining the ITIS data for non-trunk routes in the study area, a series of journey
time surveys were undertaken across the road network in the study area. These also incorporated the
A585 and M55 (J3-4) in order to allow comparison with the ITIS data. The surveys were carried out
between 13 July and 23 July 2004 in the AM Peak (07:00-10:00), Off Peak (11:00-14:00) and PM Peak
(16:00-19:00) periods. Seven routes (see Figure 5.1) were surveyed and these can be described as
follows:
    Yellow: Bispham Road/Waterloo Road (A587/A5073);
    Blue: Victoria Road/Fleetwood Road/Poulton Road (B5412/B5268/B5267);
    Orange: M55 (Junction 3) - Fleetwood (via A584 Promenade);
    Pink: Fleetwood Road/Lawsons Road (B5268/B5439);
    Green: Blackpool Town Centre to Singleton (via B5266 and A586);
    Brown: Kirkham – Fleetwood (A585); and
    Red: Kirkham – Little Bispham (A583/B5124).

Table 5.1 shows the average speeds for each route by direction and time period. From this it is apparent
that average speeds are lower during the Off Peak and PM Peak periods, when compared with the AM
Peak. This is likely to be a result of the high volume of seasonal traffic in the area during the time of the
survey. The route with the lowest average speeds is the Yellow route, which comprises Bispham Road
(A587) and Waterloo Road (A5073).

Table 5.1 Average Speeds (mph) by Route
                                                                                                      Time Period
              Route
                                            Direction                     AM Peak                          Off Peak                         PM Peak
                                          Northbound                           18                               14                            19
             Yellow
                                          Southbound                           17                               17                            16
                                          Northbound                           19                               18                            19
               Blue
                                          Southbound                           21                               15                            19
                                          Northbound                           27                               23                            24
             Orange
                                          Southbound                           28                               23                            25

                                          Northbound                           24                               21                            23
               Pink
                                          Southbound                           25                               20                            19
                                          Northbound                            -                               24                            28
              Green
                                          Southbound                           25                               19                            24
                                          Northbound                           31                               31                            25
             Brown
                                          Southbound                           31                               32                            27
                                          Northbound                           28                               23                            23
               Red
                                          Southbound                           27                               25                            23




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Analysis of the data shows that there are a number of areas where average speeds are consistently below
15mph throughout the day. This includes the following sections of the surveyed road network:
   A584 Promenade (Talbot Road – Lytham Road);
   A5073 Waterloo Road (Preston New Road – Promenade);
   A583 Whitegates Drive (Preston New Road – Warbreck Hill Road);
   A587 Rossal Road (Victoria Road – Cumberland Avenue);
   A586 Garstang Road West (approach to junction with St Walburga’s Road);
   A588 Breck Road (Poulton Town Centre);
   B5268 Fleetwood Road North; and
   B5439 Lawsons Road.

Data for all routes has been plotted using time (seconds) against distance (miles). Figure 5.2 shows this
for the Brown route (northbound), which covers the A585(T) between Kirkham and Fleetwood.

Figure 5.2 Brown Route Northbound (Distance and Time)

                                                        Brown Route Northbound


                      2000
                      1800
                      1600
                      1400
       Time (s ecs)




                                                                                                                                       AM Peak
                      1200
                                                                                                                                       Off Peak
                      1000
                                                                                                                                       PM Peak 1
                       800
                                                                                                                                       PM Peak 2
                       600
                       400
                       200
                         0
                             0     2           4              6              8            10             12            14

                                                         Distance (miles)



5.3.                  Freight Surveys

Methodology
Given the importance of the A585(T) in providing freight access to the Port of Fleetwood, a set of
Specialised Goods Vehicle Counts (SGVC) were undertaken in order to provide a fuller understanding of
freight movement on the route. This section presents some of the key findings from the survey, looking
particularly at how port related Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) traffic impacts on the A585(T) during the day.

The surveys were undertaken on 1 July 2004 at the following 43 sites on the A585(T) (see Figure 5.3):
1. A585 Freeport Roundabout (Amounderness Way/Dock Street);
2.A585 ABP Roundabout (Amounderness Way); and                                                                                                           Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
3.2. A585 Little Singleton Crossroads; and
4.3. A585 Greenhalgh.                                                                                                                                   Formatted: Bullets and Numbering

The surveys were carried out during the time periods 08:00-11:00 and 15:00-18:00. It should be noted that
the surveyor at Site 2 relocated to Site 3 after the AM survey as there was considered to be little difference
between the observations at Sites 1 and 2. This provided an opportunity to survey the Little Singleton
junction, which is one of the most significant bottlenecks on the route.

In addition to recording the number of Heavy Goods Vehicles, the surveys also noted the:
    Age of vehicle;
    Direction of travel;
    Vehicle type;
    Body type; and
    Industry type.

Observations
When looking at the port related HGV traffic, it is important to place the survey observations within the
context of the 3 arrivals and departures at the port each day. Services arrive at 00:00, 06:00 and 18:00
and depart at 03:00, 10:00 and 22:00. It is therefore apparent that the 06:00 arrival had the potential to
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impact on the southbound traffic on the A585 (T) and the 10:00 departure could impact on northbound
traffic.

The hourly HGV flows for the four sites during the AM Peak (08:00-09:00) and PM Peak (17:00-18:00) are
shown in Figure 5.3. From this it is apparent that the highest number of HGV’s (115) was observed
travelling in the southbound direction at Site 43 (A585 Greenhalgh) during the AM Peak. Figure 7.3 shows
that the total traffic flow at this location is approximately 1250 vehicles during this period. HGV’s therefore
comprise approximately 9% of the total traffic flow at this time and location.

This high proportion of HGV’s at Site 43 is a result of the 06:00 arrival at the port (22:00 departure from
Larne), which is a key driver accompanied sailing for morning deliveries. The 10:00 departure from
Fleetwood does not appear to have a significant impact on northbound HGV flows on the A585 (T). This is
a result of the sailing being primarily unaccompanied traffic comprising of trailers, many of which would
have been dropped off the night before.

In order to make an estimate of the proportion of HGV traffic which is port-related, the following
assumptions have been made:
    All foreign and Northern Irish plated vehicles are travelling to or from the ferry terminal; and
    All UK registered vehicles owned by companies running vehicles with foreign or Northern Irish plates
     are also destined for the port.

At Site 43 (A585(T) Greenhalgh), which is the closest site to the M55, 11% of all the HGV’s recorded
during the survey periods were either foreign or Northern Irish registered (8% Northern Irish, 3% foreign).
Working from these assumptions, this suggests that at least 11% of the traffic is port related. By
identifying companies running vehicles with Northern Irish or foreign plates and searching the records, it is
possible to identify the number of UK registered vehicles owned by firms who also operated foreign or
Northern Irish plated vehicles. The proportion of vehicles in this group is 4% of the total HGV traffic
recorded. Therefore, it can be assumed that at least 15% of all the HGV traffic recorded has an origin or
destination at the port. As would be expected, the proportion of port related traffic on the A585(T)
increases at the sites closer to Fleetwood. At Site 1 (Freeport Roundabout), 25% of HGV’s were found to
be port related.

Articulated lorries were the most commonly sighted (41.6%), followed by rigid chassis vehicles (32.3%),
whilst lorries with a maximum gross weight of under 7.5 tonnes accounted for the remaining 26.1%.

The most frequently recorded industry was general distribution (36.1%), followed by Food and other
associated industries (17.3%) and building materials (7.5%).




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6         MODEL DEVELOPMENT




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6. Model Development

6.1. Overview
This section outlines the model development approach and summarises the model validation. More
details, particularly in relation to the validation are provided in the model validation report. In order to meet
the study requirements a multi-modal transport model has been developed. Firstly a highway model,
based on the existing regional model, was updated and revalidated so that it adequately reproduces
current movements of cars and heavy goods vehicles in the study area. Secondly, a mode-choice model
and public transport model was developed to model the effect of any major public transport proposals, or
other policies on the split between trips made by car and non-car modes of transport.

It should be borne in mind that the overall study was not per se a modelling study, and that the objective of
the models was to provide information to assist in the development of a set of coherent strategies.
Consequently, whilst the modelling tools should be robust, the development of the models will be
undertaken in a pragmatic way through building on the data that already exists and focussing on
enhancing areas where it is most appropriate.

6.2.      Highway Model
FaberMaunsell was provided with the most recent version of the Fylde Coast Traffic Model (FCTM). This
was originally developed in 1989 to assess various route options for the A585(T) Norcross to M55 Link and
covers the Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre areas; as such it was an appropriate starting point for developing a
highway model for the current study. Enhancements to this model have occurred periodically, with the
most recent model having a base trip pattern relating to 1998. During the re-basing of the model,
significant work was also undertaken by Lancashire County Council (LCC) to improve the accuracy of the
network coding. However, it was acknowledged by LCC that the FCTM model did not replicate observed
traffic counts in the area to a satisfactory level and it was believed that the errors resulted from
inaccuracies in the trip matrix.

In order to test the proposed highway schemes with the FCTM and to have confidence in the model output,
further model enhancements were required in terms of both matrix development and network updating,
with the objective of improving model validation, in particular on the A585(T) corridor and on the north-
south links to the north of Blackpool.

The objective of improving the trip matrix was to obtain a better representation of current traffic movements
(both in terms of volumes and distribution) utilising more recent data on trips made in the area. Network
updating concerns the merits/demerits of incorporating greater detail to ensure that any significant
changes in the highway network since the last update are incorporated into the model. These two aspects
are discussed in more detail below.

The updated model has a base of March 2004, and all counts used in the validation are factored to this
period.

6.3.      Matrix Enhancement
The FCTM was previously an evening peak period model only. The matrices were ‘all vehicles’,
aggregating cars and heavy goods vehicles into one entity. The absence of a morning peak model was a
weakness since any analysis of the economic benefits would require an estimate of those accrued in AM
peak. Disaggregating according to vehicle type facilitates a more accurate economic evaluation, as travel
costs differ significantly depending on vehicle type. Furthermore, given the importance of freight traffic, it
was essential that this traffic was separately identified in the model and forecasting process.

Journey to Work Matrices
In the morning and evening peak hours, a large proportion of journeys are those between home and a
place of work (more commonly referred to as home-based work trips, or ‘HBW’). As such, the approach to
matrix development made extensive use of 2001 Census data, which, amongst various statistics defining
the population of the United Kingdom, contains data on all HBW trips. The Census data is aggregated into
geographical areas made up of around 125 household output areas, and in the context of the wide area
covered by the FCTM, is spatially very detailed.

The data contained within the Census is a valuable, and up to date, source of information on where trips to
work in the study area start from and where they end. The Census can be used to identify HBW trips that
start and terminate inside the study area, i.e. purely internal trips, or those with one end of the trip external
to the study area. However, the census data does not explicitly disaggregate HBW trips into the time of
day and is best used to form a pattern of HBW trip movements to be used in conjunction with information
relating to the number of trips made in the peak hours.

The total number of peak hour HBW trips in 2004 for Blackpool, Fleetwood/Thornton, Wyre and Lytham St
Annes can be found by reference to TEMPRO software. This is a front-end platform for obtaining
projections in terms of trip making derived from the National Trip End Model. It is possible to derive a
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matrix of HBW trips for the study area based on the trip patterns in the 2001 Census data, but constrained
to the overall 2004 trip levels in TEMPRO.

Other Trip Purposes
Apart from HBW trips, there are other trips occurring in the peak hours, relating for example to trips to
schools, shops and leisure facilities; for the purpose of the matrix development all such trips have been
aggregated and defined as ‘other’.

Whilst the total number of ‘other’ trips in the study area can be estimated by reference to the TEMPRO
software, no data is currently available to provide a picture of where these trips are travelling between. To
overcome this, a matrix estimation process was carried out to derive the trip matrices for ‘other’ trips. The
known work traffic was subtracted from the observed total traffic at count locations throughout the model
area, to leave the required ‘other’ traffic at these locations. The matrix estimation used initial ‘other’ trip
matrices derived using the existing 1998 matrix and a gravity-based model, and adjusted these ‘other’ trips
so that the total Passenger Car Units (PCUs) at each count location closely matched the observed total
PCUs.

Freight
The development of ‘other’ trips matrix concerns total PCUs making non-work trips, regardless of vehicle
type. Further work was required to separate which of these trips are car and which are Heavy Goods
Vehicle (HGV). This was done using data from two sources: a specialised survey of freight movements on
the A585(T), and classified traffic counts in the area. On any road link for which a traffic count existed that
differentiated between car and HGV, the ‘other’ traffic using this link was extracted to a separate trip
matrix. The proportions of cars and HGV's for the count site were then applied to the new matrix to give a
separate car and HGV matrix for each site. The car matrices were then added back to the total cars, and
the HGV matrices were added together to create the total HGV matrix.

6.4. Network Enhancement
As stated previously, a comprehensive exercise has already been undertaken by LCC to improve the
modelled representation of the highway network. Efforts were made to add missing links, correct the
speed-flow relationship on modelled links, achieve consistency in junction and link capacities and improve
both the coverage and accuracy of junction coding.

A consequence of the LCC work is that the most recent version of the model should be more accurate in
terms of the capacities of the modelled links and junctions, and hence the delays experienced. It is unusual
for a model of this size to have so many junctions modelled in detail and as such it would not be practical
to undertake a detailed audit of the junction coding across the entire network. A spot check of the junction
coding was therefore undertaken at major intersections in the study area, for example on the main routes.

In terms of updating the modelled representation of the highway network, discussions with officers of
Lancashire County Council and Blackpool Council indicated that the following major highway schemes
have been implemented since the model was last updated:
    North East Link Road, connecting Moor Park Avenue to Norcross Lane;
    Plymouth Road Integrated Transport Scheme; and
    Northern section of the M55-Heyhouses link road.

The schemes highlighted above have been incorporated into the updated base model.

The robustness of the enhanced highway model will be tested by a comparison of modelled flows against
recently observed count data on highway links throughout the study area.

6.5. Mode Choice and Public Transport Models
A mode choice model was developed to represent public transport movements in the area so that the
strategic effect of major public transport proposals can be assessed.

A principal component of the mode choice model is a strategic public transport model to formulate values
for the generalised cost of travel for different modes of transport. Public transport modes include existing
bus and rail and tram services in the area. The generalised cost takes into account monetised values for
waiting, interchange and travel time combined with fare. The model is sufficiently detailed so that the costs
of public transport travel in comparison to other travel options can be determined.

Timetables for major bus, train and tram services were used to develop the public transport model in
conjunction with the Journey to Work Census data and ETM (electronic ticket machine) data.

The assessment of mode choice between car and public transport was then undertaken within an absolute
logit mode choice model. Calibration was undertaken by adjusting the logit model constants until the
modelled mode shares matched the existing mode shares, as observed in the data collected for the model
development.




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6.6.      Validation

Highway
The model validation was undertaken by comparing observed flows/journey times against modelled
flows/journey times. This section summarises the validation of flows, but the validation against journey
time surveys is contained within the Model Validation Report.

The comparison of modelled and observed vehicle flows is carried out on two levels: individual counts and
screenlines. The screenlines used in the model validation are the same as those used in the matrix
estimation process, as there were insufficient counts to use different ones for each task.

In total, 97 counts were used, and from the counts 16 screenlines (8 actual screenlines, in two directions)
were formed. The results of the flow comparisons are summarised in Table 6.1 (AM) and Table 6.2 (PM).
The full validation results are presented in the Model Validation Report.

It is clear that the traffic flows in the new model are a much closer match to the observed than was
achieved in the 1998 model. Only around 50% of the flows compared in the 1998 model met the relevant
DMRB criteria, whereas in both the new AM and PM peak models, this figure is now over 85%.

The validation of screenline flows is also much improved in the new models with most screenlines meeting
the relevant criteria. While in the AM only 81% and in the PM only 75% of screenlines meet the 5%
criteria, 94% of the screenlines in both time periods meet the GEH criteria. This means that in most cases,
the screenlines that are above 5% of observed flow are not over by a significant amount, and are therefore
not considered to be a problem.

Table 6.1 AM Peak Flow Validation Summary
                                                                                                 Number               % Meet
                           DMRB Criteria                                     Total Flows
                                                                                               Meet Criteria          Criteria


        Individual flows within 15% for flows 700 - 2700
                                                                                   44                  42                95%
  1     vph


  2     Individual flows within 100 vph for flows < 700 vph                        51                  42                82%


  3     Individual flows within 400 vph for flows > 2700 vph                        2                  2                100%


  4     Total screenline flows to be within 5%                                     16                  13                81%


  5     GEH Statistic:
        i) individual flows: GEH < 5                                               97                  82                85%
        ii) screenline totals: GEH < 4                                             16                  15                94%

Table 6.2 PM Peak Flow Validation Summary
                                                                                                                                         % Meet
                                                                                              Number Meet             % Meet
                           DMRB Criteria                                    Total Flows                                                 Criteria in
                                                                                                Criteria              Criteria
                                                                                                                                       1998 Model


       Individual flows within 15% for flows 700 - 2700
                                                                                  42                  39                 93%                39%
  1 vph


  2 Individual flows within 100 vph for flows < 700 vph                           53                  47                 87%                54%


       Individual flows within 400 vph for flows > 2700
                                                                                   2                   2                100%                50%
  3 vph

  4 Total screenline flows to be within 5%                                        16                  12                 75%                44%


  5 GEH Statistic:
       i) individual flows: GEH < 5                                               97                  85                 88%                55%
       ii) screenline totals: GEH < 4                                             16                  15                 94%                56%




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Public Transport
The three separate matrices for bus, train and tram, were added together to create a total PT matrix for
each peak period. This was assigned to the full PT network including bus, train and tram, and the total
boardings for each line exported.

The modelled bus and tram boardings were compared with observed boardings along the lines for which
data was provided. It has not been possible to individually validate the matrices for train, owing to a lack of
appropriate data.

The validation for bus and tram trips is generally good, with the modelled routes showing similar levels of
boardings as the actual routes. The total observed boardings compared with modelled boardings for bus
and tram are shown in Tables 6.3 and 6.4 respectively.

Table 6.3 Total Bus Boardings Observed and Compared

                                AM Peak                                                                        PM Peak

                                                                %
      Observed                        Model                                       Observed                     Model                   % Difference
                                                           Difference
           864                          978                    +13%                   1178                      1285                        +9%

Table 6.4 Total Tram Boardings Observed and Compared

                                AM Peak                                                                        PM Peak

                                                                %
      Observed                        Model                                       Observed                     Model                   % Difference
                                                           Difference
           178                          205                    +15%                    435                       429                        -1%




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7         TRANSPORT BASELINE ASSESSMENT




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7. Transport Baseline Assessment

7.1. Mode Split
Figure 7.1 shows that 70% of work trips made from the study area wards are by ‘Car’, either as a driver or
passenger. Other significant modes are ‘Walk’ (13%) and ‘Bus’ (9%). The mode split of trips to the study
area wards is very similar. These figures are also broadly in line with the national average for work trips,
although the proportion of trips made by ‘Train’ is lower than the national average of 4%. However, it
should be noted that rail loadings are significantly higher in off peak periods, particularly in the summer
months. Car ownership is low in some areas of Blackpool, where an estimated 42% of households have
access to a car.

          Figure 7.1 Mode Split Of Work Trips From Study Area Wards




7.2. Distance to Work
The distance of journey to work trips from the study area is shown in Table 7.1. From this it is apparent
that 55% of work trips are less than 5km. 21% of trips are between 10km and 29km and just 6% of trips
are 30km or more. It should be noted that the table excludes those who work from home.

Table 7.1 Study Area: Journey To Work Trip Distance
              2km to                10km to     20km to                                          30km to            40km to
 Less than less than 5km to less less than less than                                            less than          less than 60km and
   2km         5km      than 10km    20km         30km                                            40km               60km      over   Total
     25%                30%                18%                13%                 8%                 3%                 1%                  2%   100%

7.3. Destination of Work Trips
Figure 7.2 shows the destination of work trips from sectors inside the study area and beyond. The sectors
used are as follows:
   Blackpool;
   Fylde Urban;
   Fylde Rural;
   Wyre Urban;
   Wyre Rural; and
   External.

In Blackpool, it is apparent that a very high proportion (71%) of employees live and work in the area. The
next most common work destinations of employees residing in Blackpool are Wyre Urban and External.

In Wyre Urban, the proportion of employees who live and work in the area is 53% with 27% of employees
living in the area travel to Blackpool and 11% travel to the External sector.

56% of employees living in the Fylde Urban area also work there, with 17% travelling to Blackpool and
14% to the External sector. In the Fylde Rural sector, 48% of employees work within the sector they
reside, but a high proportion (24%) travel to the External sector. This is also the case for the Wyre Rural
sector where 48% of employees work in Wyre Rural, but 28% travel to the External sector. The proportion
of employees travelling to Blackpool from these sectors is relatively low (10%-12%). The higher proportion
of trips to the External sector from the Wyre Rural and Fylde Rural sectors is a reflection of the small


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number of large employers, the propensity of residents to travel further and also the closer proximity to the
External sector.
When looking at trips from the External sector, it is notable that the highest proportion of trips (44%) are to
the Fylde Rural sector, with only 21% of trips destined for Blackpool. The high number of trips to Fylde
Rural is a result of the British Aerospace site at Warton. As such, the Warton ward accounts for
approximately 50% of trips to Fylde Rural from the External sector.

Traffic Flows
A set of Manual Classified Counts (MCC) and Automatic Traffic Counts (ATC) were obtained from
Lancashire County Council and Blackpool Council. These are primarily being used in the highway matrix
building and model validation process. Hourly traffic flows on some of the key links in the study area are
presented for the AM and PM Peak periods in Figures 7.3 and 7.4 respectively. The flows are 2003/04
and have been taken from neutral months (ie outside holiday periods and the peak holiday period).
Average weekday figures are used where ATC’s are in place.

As would be expected, traffic flows are highest on the M55 east of Junction 3. During the AM peak hour
there are over 2300 vehicles travelling on the link in the westbound direction (towards Blackpool) and
around 1600 vehicles per hour in the eastbound direction. Traffic flows are significantly lower on the M55
to the west of the junction with the A585 (Junction 3). Whilst these flows are considerable, they are
significantly lower than many urban motorways. The M55 is built to a high standard with 3 lanes in each
direction and has considerable capacity for further traffic growth. The highest flows on the M55 clearly
occur during ‘summer’ months with high volumes of day visitors. However, these flows are outside the
normal peaks and as such do not coincide with local peak hours.

After the M55, the busiest route in the study area is the A585 (T). Traffic flows are highest on the section
just north of Singleton crossroads where the number of vehicles can exceed 1700 (one way) during peak
hours.

Other routes carrying high volumes of traffic include the:
   A583 Preston New Road (provides the main route in to Blackpool Town Centre from the M55);
   A584 Promenade;
   B5124 Devonshire Road;
   A587 Bispham Road; and
   A588 Shard Road.

Traffic Flow Variability
Given the seasonal factors which impact on the study area, it important to obtain an understanding of how
traffic flows vary by month and time period. In order to ascertain the impact, Automatic Traffic Count
(ATC) data for 2003 has been obtained for each month at 10 sites in and around the study area. The
selected sites are as follows:
     A584 Clifton Drive (south of junction with Waterloo Road);
     B5268 Blackpool Old Road (Poulton);
     M55 (Junction 3-4);
     A586 Garstang Road (east of Great Eccleston);
     A583 Preston New Road (south of M55 Junction 4);
     A588 (Shard Bridge);
     A585 (Greenhalgh);
     A585 Garstang New Road (east of Singleton);
     B5261 Queensway (south of Division Lane); and
     A585 Amounderness Way (south of Victoria Road).

The ATC data for the sites listed above has been used to calculate total two way average annual weekday
traffic flows for the AM Peak (07:00-10:00), Off Peak (11:00-14:00) and PM Peak (16:00-19:00). Table 7.2
shows the percentage variation for each month when set against annual average flows for each time
period. When looking at the time periods combined, it is apparent that traffic flows are highest between
August and October. This is consistent with high visitors numbers resulting from school holidays in August
and the Blackpool Illuminations, which run from early September to early November. The months with the
lowest traffic flows are December and January, which are affected by the Christmas period and reduced
visitor numbers.

It is also evident that there is a difference between time periods as the visitor related traffic impacts less on
the AM Peak. During the Off Peak, traffic flows in August are 13% above the average for the year, which
is likely to be a direct result of the school holiday period and high number of visitors. Traffic flows during
the Off Peak are lowest in January when flows are 10% below average for the year. In the PM Peak flows
are between 3% and 6% above average between June and October. Traffic flows are again low in
December and January.




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Table 7.2 Monthly Variation from Annual Average Weekday Flows (2003)
                                                    Time Period
      Month           AM Peak             Off Peak            PM Peak                                                            All Periods
                    Flow      % Var   Flow      % Var      Flow    % Var                                                       Flow       % Var
     January       46,300      -2%   39,400      -10%     49,400    -7%                                                       135,100      -7%
       February               48,300           +2%           41,400            -6%            52,100             -2%          141,800       -2%
         March                50,500           +7%           42,600            -3%            54,100            +2%           147,200       +2%
          April               44,900           -5%           45,300            +3%            52,600            -1%           142,800       -1%
          May                 45,900           -3%           45,100            +2%            53,000             0%           144,000        0%
          June                49,100           +4%           43,900            0%             54,700            +3%           147,700       +2%
          July                47,700           +1%           45,500            +3%            54,900            +3%           148,100       +2%
        August                44,200            -7%          49,900           +13%            56,100            +6%           150,200       +4%
     September                50,300           +6%           44,200             0%            55,600            +5%           150,100       +4%
       October                50,000           +5%           45,900            +4%            56,400            +6%           152,300       +5%
      November                50,300           +6%           41,400            -6%            52,200             -2%          143,900       0%
      December                41,700           -12%          43,100            -2%            46,100            -13%          130,900       -9%
       Annual
                              47,400              -          44,000               -           53,100               -          144,500        -
      Average

Table 7.3 shows equivalent information as in Table 7.2 for all time periods, but split down between north-
south and east-west routes. It is apparent that there is more variation in flows on east-west routes (eg
M55 and A586) compared with north-south links. For example, traffic flows for all time periods in August
are 8% higher than average on east-west routes, compared with north-south routes where flows are just
2% above the average for the year. The site with the highest variation is the M55 where off peak flows are
29% higher in August compared with the average for the year. This is a reflection of the fact that the
majority of visitors access the area on east-west routes, whereas the north-south routes can generally be
expected to carry a higher proportion of local traffic.

Table 7.3 Monthly Traffic Flow Variation by Route Direction (All Time Periods)
                              North-South                East-West             Total Flow
         Month
                           Flow         % Var        Flow          % Var
        January           90,200         -6%        44,900          -8%         135,100
       February           95,400         0%         46,400          -5%         141,800
         March            98,600         +3%        48,600           0%         147,200
          April           92,900         -3%        49,900         +2%          142,800
          May             95,700         0%         48,300          -1%         144,000
         June             98,100         +2%        49,600         +2%          147,700
          July            98,300         +3%        49,800         +2%          148,100
        August            97,400         +2%        52,800         +8%          150,200
      September           98,700         +3%        51,400         +6%          150,100
        October           99,100         +3%        53,200         +9%          152,300
      November            96,000         0%         47,900          -2%         143,900
      December            89,200         -7%        41,700         -14%         130,900
   Annual Average         95,800           -        48,700            -         144,500

This data has been used in the model validation process as all counts have been factored to March 2004,
which is considered to be a neutral month.




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8         EXISTING AND POTENTIAL SCHEMES




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8. Existing and Potential Schemes

8.1. Introduction
This section reviews the existing and potential schemes (committed, planned and shelved), which are
considered to be pertinent to the area and the study objectives.

8.2. Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road
The provision of a Town Centre Distributor Road is intended to serve the function of a new secondary
distributor, and can be largely developed within the existing road network. This scheme is currently being
progressed by Blackpool Council. The road will provide a link to the major development proposals and to
key transport interchanges, enhancing accessibility to these facilities for all users, whilst allowing greater
accessibility of the town centre core for public transport vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists. The design of
the new distributor road will be targeted particularly at reducing unnecessary traffic movements along key
routes, such as the Promenade. The result will be less severance between the town centre and the
seafront and enhanced linkages to the Tramway. The route of the scheme is shown in Figure 8.1. While
sections of the road have been completed, funding for the completion of the scheme is not committed.
The 2003/04 Blackpool Local Transport Plan Annual Progress Report estimates an outturn expenditure on
the scheme of £1.77 million in the period 2002-06.

Within the context of this study, the scheme will contribute towards the objectives of providing capacity and
access to support the regeneration of Blackpool, and also help reduce traffic volumes on some north-south
routes, such as the promenade. However, it does not assist in improving access between the M55 and
Fleetwood, reduce congestion problems on the A585 (T) or reduce traffic volumes on many other north-
south routes.

8.3.      Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway (Phases 1-3)
In 1999 Blackpool Council and Lancashire County Council jointly commissioned a study into possible
options for the future of the Blackpool to Fleetwood Tramway. The principal aims were to assess the
current situation, identify options and propose a course of action that the transport authorities would find
practical, achievable and fundable.

The study recognised that the existing tram system continues to play a central role in the economy of
Blackpool and the Fylde Coast both as part of the public transport network, but also as a tourist generator
in itself. It was also acknowledged that the tramway has suffered from a lengthy period of under-
investment, is not fully accessible, has long journey times and lacks the attractiveness of modern light rail
systems.

A range of options were considered including:
   Closure;
   Continue operating with the current levels of service;
   Bringing the existing system up to modern light rail standards; and
   Development of a fully integrated and expanded light rail system for the Fylde Coast.

After looking at forecast patronage levels as well as economic and financial implications, the study made
the following recommendations:
    Upgrading of the existing tramway to modern light rail standards;
    Developing a rapid transit link to St Annes and Lytham;
    Creating a new on-street route to link to Blackpool North Railway Station; and
    Examining in detail the possibility of creating a new link between Blackpool and Fleetwood via Poulton                                      Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
     and Thornton.
  Examining in detail the possibility of creating a new link between Blackpool and Fleetwood via Poulton
and Thornton.

Phase 1 involves the comprehensive upgrading of the infrastructure, vehicles, systems and operation of
the existing Tramway route to enable a modern high quality metro service to be operated between
Fleetwood and Starr Gate. Phase 2 is an extension of the route to St Annes and Lytham, together with
possible further works on the existing Tramway. Phase 3 comprises a further extension of the route along
existing and former rail corridors from Blackpool North Station to Poulton-le-Fylde and Thornton, rejoining
the existing alignment south of Fleetwood. The study team were advised that there are issues regarding
the feasibility of constructing Phase 3 and that the scheme should not be assessed within the study. All
routes are shown in Figure 8.1.

Following the initial scoping study, an Annex E bid was submitted in July 2001 to seek funding to
commence work on rebuilding the existing route to modern light rail standards. The cost estimate for
Phase 1 of the scheme was £170 million, which included a significant amount of optimism bias. The costs
were considered to be low risk given the existing route and that Transport and Works powers would not be
required. A series of meetings were then held with the Department for Transport to discuss technical and
financial issues. In July 2004, the Government announced that the bid had not been successful.
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The relevant partners are currently liasing with the Department for Transport in connection with a revised
bid of approximately £106.5 million.


8.4. M55 – Norcross Route Options
In 1990 the Department of Transport undertook a public consultation exercise for a new trunk road the
‘A585 Norcross to M55 Link’. Three routes were identified as potential options:
    Pink Route – following the alignment of the existing A585(T) from Norcross to the M55 Junction 3
     (north of Kirkham);
    Red Route – running south from Norcross to the M55 at Junction 4; and
    Yellow Route – runs in a south-easterly direction across the Fylde from Norcross to the M55 Junction
     3 (north of Kirkham).

Although the Yellow route found most favour at the public consultation, the Red route was selected by the
Secretary of State as the preferred route in 1992 and was protected by the Department of Transport. The
principal reason for the selection of the Red route was because it performed two functions in both
addressing problems on the A585(T), but also on north-south routes in Blackpool. The route followed a
similar alignment to the Fylde Coast Easterly Bypass, which was included in the 1989 Lancashire Structure
Plan.

However, the Department for Transport withdrew the proposal at the Trunk Road Review in March 1994. It
was considered that the scheme would open up a new trunk road corridor and that it was therefore
environmentally unacceptable.

The decision was contested by Lancashire County Council in a Technical Appraisal Report published in
October 1994. This stated that the two alternatives would do little to provide relief for the local road
network, in particular north-south routes through the Fylde Coast urban area. The report considered that
additional highway capacity would still be required to relieve north-south routes in Blackpool. Following the
removal of the scheme from the roads programme, the County Council protected the route for
development control purposes pending further reviews of the scheme.

The M55 – Norcross route options have since been revisited by Lancashire County Council. Purple and
Blue routes were added as additional options to those identified previously. The Purple route is a sub
option of the Pink route as it leaves the A585 (T) close to the junction with Mile Road (B5269) before
running to the north of Singleton village and connecting with the A586 west of the Little Singleton
crossroads. The Blue route is intended to minimise environmental impacts by following the rail line from a
new junction with the M55 also to a point west of Little Singleton crossroads on the A586. All the routes
are shown indicatively in Figure 8.2. It should be noted that some of the alignments have not been
released to the public and remain confidential.

The estimated cost of the Red route was £152 million (Quarter 4, 2001) and it is the most expensive
option. This is largely due to the fact that forecast traffic flows are such that the scheme would have to be
grade separated. Cost estimates for the remaining route options were significantly lower: Blue (£95
million), Yellow (£51 million), Pink (£66 million) and Purple (£70 million). These options could all be
constructed at-grade. All prices are Quarter 4 (2001).

As stated in the brief, the M55 to Norcross route options are to be assessed as part of this study in terms
of their appropriateness and deliverability.

8.5. Completion of the M55-Heyhouses Link Road
There is currently no direct link between the M55 motorway and St. Annes. Access by way of the Squires
Gate Link road is circuitous, as is the main alternative route via Queensway, School Road and Whitehill
Road. The more direct route via Wild Lane/North Houses Lane is a single track road with passing places.
Fylde Borough Council considers that a new direct link road to the motorway is necessary in order to
accommodate growth. As such, a link from the M55 – Heyhouses (see Figure 8.1) is included in the
Lancashire Joint Structure Plan.

The northern section of the road, just south of Junction 4 (M55), has been constructed as part of a retail
development and a section to the south has also been completed. Planning permission for the remainder
of the road has been applied for and the cost of the scheme was estimated at £8 million (2000 prices). It
was anticipated that approximately 50% of the funding would be made available from a private developer
as part of an application for a housing development. However, progression of the scheme has been put on
hold as the development has been referred to the Secretary of State and a decision is still awaited.

8.6.      Quality Bus Corridors
A study of Line 14 has recently been undertaken by Halcrow and reported in January 2004. This is a key
strategic north-south bus route in the study area connecting Fleetwood, Blackpool and St Annes (see
Figure 8.1). There are also plans to develop Quality Bus Corridors on Lines 7 and 11 (Cleveleys –
Lytham).


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Line 14 is a high frequency service covering a total route length of 31 kilometres. As such, it is considered
to be one of the most important routes in Blackpool, Fylde and Wyre. The study has looked at issues
relating to journey times, journey time reliability, bus stop location and interchange.




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A detailed list of issues were identified on the route which related to:
   Poor passenger waiting environments;
   Difficulty boarding and alighting due to on street residential parking;
   Anti-social behaviour around schools and controlling boarding of buses;
   Junction delays;
   Inappropriate bus stop locations;
   Inadequate crossing facilities; and
   Poor interchange facilities.

The study identified the following principal measures:
   Contraflow bus lanes (Central Drive, Talbot Road);
   Passenger waiting improvements (Blackpool Sixth Form College);
   Interchange improvements (Talbot Road, Broadwater, Layton Square);
   Bus stop accessibility improvements (Central Drive, Broadwater;
   Selective Vehicle Detection (SVD) at Blackpool Road/Poulton Road and Fleetwood Road/Poulton
    Road junctions; and
   Bus stop infrastructure upgrades (throughout).

Given the north-south emphasis of the Fylde Coast Study, improvements to Line 14 are important in
offering a high quality public transport alternative. The aspirations for the route are reflected in the
Blackpool Council and Lancashire County Council target of achieving a 15% increase in the level of
patronage on the route.

In terms of funding, £360,000 for 2004/05 and £125,000 for 2005/06 has been allocated within the LTP for
public transport improvements across Blackpool BC. Allocations for Line 14 are to start in 2004 and the
implementation programme runs until 2010,.
 which is the end of the 2006-2010 LTP.

8.7. Route Management Strategies (RMS)
Route Management Strategies are developed by the Highways Agency (HA) to provide a framework for
managing individual trunk routes. Their aim is to identify problems and their courses and suggest ways in
which they could be dealt with, and in which order. It should be noted that the RMS’s are primarily
concerned with the management and utilisation of the existing route over a ten year period, and that any
discussion of alternative routes is outside the remit of the process.

A585 Route Management Strategy (RMS)
The A585 RMS was published on 16 August 2004 and is of direct relevance to the Fylde Coast Study
given the common objectives of delivering solutions to congestion and environmental problems on the
A585(T).

Following a consultation process with the public and stakeholders, a number of issues were identified
which are detailed in under Problems and Issues section (Chapter 9).

The study has recommended the following 16, ‘Route Outcomes’, of which 9 are identified as ‘Key Route
Outcomes’.
         RO 1 To improve Windy Harbour Junction

         RO 2 To improve Little Singleton Junction

         RO 3 To improve Shard Road Junction
          RO 4 To improve Thistleton South Junction
          RO 5 To improve Norcross Roundabout Junction
          RO 6 To improve Skippool Roundabout Junction
          RO 7 To improve Victoria Road Roundabout Junction
          RO 8 To improve West Drive Junction

         RO 9 To improve safety of access to residential & commercial premises
          RO 10 To provide safe overtaking opportunities

         RO 11 To improve road users’ journey time reliability and predictability

         RO 12 To facilitate and support regeneration without further congestion
          RO 13 To contribute to delivery of Highways Agency Biodiversity Action Plan

         RO 14 To reduce noise intensity caused by traffic

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         RO 15 To improve safety and accessibility for vulnerable users

         RO 16 To encourage shift from private to public transport

Route Management Strategies do not incorporate any scheme designs, costs or timescales. However, the
study team are aware that the Highways Agency have been working for some time on various options for
key junctions along the route (e.g Little Singleton). The next stage is for the Highways Agency to draw up
a Route Management Plan, which will incorporate more detailed proposals and include a timescale.

In terms of objectives, there is clearly significant overlap between A585 RMS and this study. Two of the
five objectives of this study relate specifically to the A585(T) in identifying an agreed strategy to deliver
solutions to increasing traffic volumes on the route and associated congestion and environmental
problems. However, there is a clear distinction in the differing remits of the two studies. The A585 RMS
has looked to identify short to medium term solutions to problems on the route, whereas this study has a
medium to long term emphasis. Three of the key outcomes of the RMS relate to improving the junctions at
Windy Harbour, Little Singleton and Shard Road, which are some of the most significant bottlenecks on the
route. Given that the RMS does not identify or evaluate specific schemes, it is not possible to ascertain
the extent to which the key outcomes might reduce congestion on the route. A clearer indication will be
provided when details of the proposed schemes are released by the Highways Agency. Nevertheless, it is
unlikely that the schemes under consideration will offer a solution to congestion and environmental
problems on the route in the medium to long term.

M55 Route Management Strategy (RMS)
The M55 RMS is also of relevance to the study as it provides strategic access to the Fylde Coast and the
Port of Fleetwood. The study was published in May 2002. Problems identified which are relevant to the
study area are congestion on exit slip roads at junction 3 and poor pedestrian crossing facilities at
Junctions 3 and 4. Congestion on the slip roads is not considered to be a major problem at present, but it
could become an issue with the traffic growth projected. The ‘Possible Actions’ put forward included
monitoring of Junction 3 and improved pedestrian crossing facilities at the junction. These
recommendations are still to be taken forward to a Route Management Plan.

8.8. Travel Change Measures
A range of travel change measures, such as the development of Workplace Travel Plans and School
Travel Plans are being developed across the study area. For example, the latest Local Transport Plan
Annual Progress Reports (2003/04) state that over 12 School Travel Plans (STP’s) have now been
established in Blackpool and a further 41 have been approved across Lancashire. The study brief requires
that the potential impact of ‘soft’ measures is assessed in relation to the overall level of travel demand.
Chapter 9 reports the findings of national research in this area.




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9         TRANSPORT PROBLEMS AND ISSUES




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9. Transport Problems and Issues

9.1. Overview
This section uses the information gathering and review, in addition to the individual meetings with Steering
Group members and Wider Consultees to draw out the key problems and issues pertinent to the study
area. These are explored in more detail within this chapter, but key points, which have been raised by
more than one party can be summarised as follows:
   Potential for A585 RMS recommendations to abstract potential benefits in assessing the M55 –
    Norcross options;
   Little Singleton junction is seen as the most significant bottleneck on the A585 (T);
   Support for the development of Park and Ride for Blackpool;
   Bus links between Fleetwood, Poulton and Preston are poor;
   Whilst the Fleetwood-Larne ferry service is considered a success, major investment is required in new
    vessels and the port infrastructure;
   Implications of future growth at Blackpool Airport;
   Potential need to identify new schemes to address congestion problems on north-south routes in
    Blackpool;
   Uncertainty relating to the implications of the Blackpool Masterplan proposals;
   The potential and impact of the Fleetwood – Thornton Development Corridor; and
   Whether plans for the full upgrade of the Blackpool – Fleetwood tramway are to be progressed?

9.2. Impact of A585 Route Management Strategy (RMS) Proposals
The A585 RMS was published on 16 August 2004. As described in Chapter 8, this is of direct relevance to
this study given the common objectives of delivering solutions to congestion and environmental problems
on the A585(T).

Following a consultation process with the public and stakeholders, a number of issues were identified
under the five Government objectives of Economy, Safety, Accessibility, Environment and Integration.

Economy
   Congestion during peak hours, weekends and holiday periods. Specifically at Windy Harbour, Little
    Singleton and Norcross;
   Low journey time predictability and reliability;
   Congestion caused during periods of high HGV usage; and
   The effect of new developments on the local road network.

Safety
   Personal Injury Accident rates at Victoria Road, West Drive, Rossall Lane and Norcross roundabout
    junctions;
   High numbers of accidents involving motorcycles in the southern half of the route;
   High numbers of accidents involving cyclists in the northern section; and
   Significant hindrance to passage of emergency vehicles at peak times.

Environment
   Noise intensity through the residential areas north of Skippool; and
   There is no Biodiversity Action Plan for the route.

Accessibility
   Difficulty of access on to the road for local residents due to high traffic volumes; and
   Crossing facilities are poor for vulnerable users at many junctions and sparse in other locations.

Integration
    Lack of public transport in the area; and
    Discontinuity of cycle lanes.

The A585 RMS has recommended 16 ‘Route Outcomes’, of which nine are identified as ‘Key Route
Outcomes’. The strategy does not incorporate any scheme designs, costs or timescales, but the study
team are aware that the Highways Agency have been working for some time on various options for key
junctions (e.g Little Singleton). Three of the nine ‘Key Route Outcomes’ related specifically to improving
the junctions of Windy Harbour, Little Singleton and Shard Road. It is considered that the study team
should liaise closely with the Highways Agency as the schemes are developed in order to be able to
ascertain their impact. These schemes have the potential to abstract benefits in the assessment of the
M55-Norcross options if set against a Do Minimum scenario, but are unlikely to offer a solution to problems
on the A585(T) in the long term.




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9.3. Congestion on North-South Routes in Blackpool
One of the objectives, as stated in the study brief is to deliver solutions to:

“Increasing traffic volumes and congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool and throughout the urban
coastal strip”.

In the early to mid 1990s, it was intended that the Fylde Coast Easterly Bypass (Red route) would provide
a dual function of alleviating problems on the A585(T), but also relieve north-south routes in Blackpool. It
was primarily for this reason that the Red route was selected as the preferred scheme. Public consultation
favoured the Yellow route, but this was considered to only address problems on the A585 (T).

Until recently, Blackpool and Lancashire continued to support the progression of the Fylde Coast Easterly
Bypass, but the Blackpool Local Plan (2001-2016) revised deposit draft (February 2004) states that:

“The proposal is no longer included in the Plan and alternative solutions need to be sought to the growth of
north-south movements in the corridor”

Under the initial review of existing and potential schemes (Chapter 8), the Blackpool Town Centre
Distributor Road, Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway proposals and Quality Bus Corridors on Lines 14, 7
and 11 have been identified as schemes which could contribute towards reducing congestion on north-
south routes in Blackpool.

9.4. Future of the Port
The Port of Fleetwood is one of four in the North West categorised by the Department for Transport as
‘major ports’ (those with a total cargo of at least 1 million tonnes per annum). The port has experienced
considerable growth in recent years and handled over 1.5 million tonnes of freight in 2002. 50% of the
ports revenues are derived from the Ro-Ro services to Larne in Northern Ireland. The services carry a
high proportion of high value, time critical consumer products.

The future of the port is clearly important in the assessment of schemes to be undertaken as part of this
study. The need to cater for port related activity and meet future growth in port traffic would play a
significant role in the justification of the most appropriate route/scheme. The proposed de-trunking of the
A585(T) was refused primarily on the grounds that the route provides strategic access to the Port of
Fleetwood. FaberMaunsell have recently undertaken a study in North East Wales, where the focus was on
improving access to the Port of Mostyn. A decision to switch services from Mostyn to Liverpool was made
midway through the study, which resulted in a loss of impetus for the schemes under consideration.

Stena Line, who recently acquired the service from P&O, have traditionally operated short sea crossings,
such as Stranraer-Belfast and Holyhead – Dublin. With the advent of the Working Time Directive and
changes to EU Drivers Hours regulations, they saw the potential benefits of acquiring a diagonal Irish Sea
route. Stena see Fleetwood as the key driver accompanied port within the corridor and are looking to
maintain and develop this position. There are currently three sailings a day, which are operated by the
same number of vessels. The third sailing (03:00) was introduced in 1999 and acts as a ‘mop up’ in
catering for surplus traffic from the premium 22:00 sailing.

A number of large Northern Ireland hauliers are key customers, including Montgomery Transport (now
incorporating Dukes), Woodsides, McBurney and Connolly. Montgomery are acknowledged to be by far
the largest and command cheap rates and a high number of spaces. Stena consider Montgomery to
provide ‘bed rock’ traffic and acknowledge that they would be hard to replace, should their operations
change.

The route is perceived as successful and there has been recent growth, but Stena and ABP now face
significant investment decisions in planning for the long term. The vessels are in need of replacement (30
years old) and the quayside infrastructure also requires upgrading. One option currently being considered
is replacement of the three vessels with two ‘max’ vessels, which would be the largest accessible to the
port. These would be fast enough to cover the existing three sailings from each port and also provide
additional capacity. Stena currently have a positive market outlook, but are facing the question of whether
Fleetwood is the right location for the longer term. The scale of investment required does attach a degree
of risk and uncertainty to the future of the operation.

Given the pivotal role of the port within the context of this study, and the current investment decisions to be
made, it is proposed that the study team should continue to liaise closely with ABP and Stena Line over
the coming months. It is intended that specific growth scenarios should be developed for the port within
the modelling process.

9.5. Future of Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway
As stated in Chapter 8, an Annex E was submitted in 2001 for the comprehensive upgrading of the
infrastructure, vehicles, systems and operation of the existing tramway route between Fleetwood and Starr
Gate (Phase 1). In addition, there are proposed extensions of the system to Blackpool North, St Annes
and Lytham (Phase 2) and a further extension from Blackpool North tto Poulton-le-Fylde, Thornton and
Fleetwood (Phase 3).

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In July 2004, the Government announced that the £170 million bid for Phase 1 of the project had not been
successful. The relevant partners are to meet with the Department for Transport to discuss the way
forward. One option currently being considered is the maintenance and renewal of the existing system,.
which has an estimated cost of £40 million. In the absence of any significant investment, the section
between Thornton Gate and Fleetwood is at risk of closure. Whilst this has the newest track, the overhead
is in urgent need of replacement.

If the maintenance and renewal option is pursued, the case for a full light rail upgrade could be
undermined, at least in the short to medium term. However, if it is decided to continue developing
proposals for a full upgrade, the study will need to consider linkages as part of assessing the M55-
Norcross options. For example, Phase 3 is considered to be particularly relevant as the scheme has
potential to abstract traffic from the A585 (T). In addition, there is also a risk that simultaneous progression
of two major north-south transport schemes could result on the approval of one at the expense of the
other.

9.6. Prospects for Rail
Although only 1% of work trips from the study area wards are made by rail, loadings are significantly higher
in off peak periods, particularly during the summer months.

On 1 July 2004, Serco-NedRailways were announced as the preferred bidder for the new Northern Rail
Franchise. The new franchise covers inter-urban, commuter and rural services throughout the north of
England, including all services to Blackpool North and Blackpool South. The franchise started in
December 2004 and will last eight years, the final two of which are dependent on achieving performance
targets.

The franchise will provide the existing levels of service, but the key emphasis will be on ‘making best use’.
It is hoped that improvements to services will be delivered through:
     Contractualised, specified targets for year on year reductions in cancellations and improved
      punctuality; and
     A financial penalty/incentive regime ensuring quality of station and train facilities over the whole of the
      franchise.

The Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) is currently developing a set of Regional Planning Assessments (RPA)
in order to form a basis for planning rail services over the medium to long term (5-20 years). The plans are
also aimed at:
    Ensuring the plans for the railway reflect (where appropriate) regional and local policies;
    To form a framework for Route Utilisation Studies and the prioritisation of physical infrastructure
     projects;
    Guiding the further development of franchise specifications by the SRA; and
    Guiding the provision of freight capability.

The Regional Planning Assessment (RPA) for the North West is being progressed at present.

9.7. Potential Impact of Travel Change Measures
As discussed in Chapter 8, Workplace and School Travel Plans are being developed across the study
area. The study brief states that the potential impact of new packages of soft measures on the overall
level of travel demand is to be appraised. To initiate the process, this section outlines the findings of
national research in this area.

The Department for Transport have commissioned a number of reviews looking at the impact of travel
change measures or soft factors. The most recent review is entitled “Smarter Choices – Changing the
Way We Travel” and was published in July 2004. The report draws on earlier studies on the impact of soft
measures, new evidence from the UK and abroad, case studies and the experience of commercial, public
and voluntary stakeholders.

The assessment focuses on ‘high intensity’ and ‘low intensity’ policy scenarios for the next 10 years. The
‘high intensity’ scenario identifies the potential of significantly expanding activity to a more widespread
implementation of current good practice. The ‘low intensity’ scenario is defined as a projection of the
current (2003/04) levels of activity on soft measures. The impacts of the ‘high intensity’ scenario is
summarised as:
    A reduction in peak period urban traffic of 21% (off peak 13%);
    A reduction of peak period non-urban traffic of around 14% (off peak 7%); and
    A nationwide reduction in all traffic of 11%.

The ‘low intensity’ scenario is forecast to reduce peak period urban traffic by 5% and a nationwide
reduction in all traffic of 2%-3%.




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In looking at individual measures, the report states that:
    Workplace travel plans typically reduce car commuting by between 10% and 30%;
    School Travel Plans on average cut school run traffic by between 8% and 15%;
    Personalised travel planning initiatives report reductions in car use of 7% to 15% in urban areas; and
    Teleconferencing can reduce business travel by between 10% and 30%.

The study will look further at the extent to which such measures can contribute towards achieving the aims
and objectives.

9.8. Impact of Blackpool Masterplan Proposals
Blackpool is the largest coastal resort destination in the UK and is one of the country’s largest seaside
towns. However the town has been in steady decline for many years and this has impacted upon the
numbers visitors to Blackpool. In 2003 the number of visitors to Blackpool was estimated to be in the
region of 10.6 million per year, which has fallen from over 13 million in 1987.

The Council, working with the NWDA, the Government Office for the North West and others, has made
progress in starting the regeneration process. European funding has been used to develop a Masterplan
and Vision for Blackpool. This Vision is:

“of a regenerated seaside resort, driven by quality, which has been shaped into a national and international
destination, delivering benefits for residents and visitors”.

It is anticipated that the proposed liberalisation of gaming and the development of resort casinos could act
as a catalyst for the reversing the decline of the resort. A major new retail development is also proposed in
the town centre and commercial opportunities have been identified for the conference sector.

Blackpool Council together with the NWDA and English Partnerships established a URC (Urban
Regeneration Company) in February 2005. The URC operates within a 200–hectare area focused on the
town’s seafront, main visitor areas and the town centre. The area has now been extended south to include
Blackpool Airport.

The Blackpool URC Commencement Business Plan (September 2004) forecasts 9,015 net additional jobs
in the Blackpool Travel to Work Area, which incorporates all of the study area. The Business Plan states
that visitor numbers are expected to nearly double to 20 million upon delivery of the major visitor
destinations. It is acknowledged that improvements to transport infrastructure are required in order to
facilitate this growth and the plan proposes a number of high volume car parks located off Seasiders Way.

These proposals clearly have significant implications for this study. As such, the forecast number of
visitors and jobs are incorporated to varying degrees within the ‘medium’ and ‘high’ growth scenarios for
car and public transport trips. The forecasting methodology is outlined in Chapter 110.

9.9. Fleetwood – Thornton Development Corridor
This corridor is identified as a Strategic Location for Development in the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan
(2001-2016) and accounts for 81.5% of Wyre’s employment land supply. The area totals some 512
hectares stretching from Fleetwood to north-east Thornton. Currently, it encompasses land uses for
housing, retail, employment and recreation. There are also large areas of derelict land in addition to
conservation areas.

Wyre Borough Council prepared a situation report for the Strategic Development Area in January 1999 and
outlined a vision for the area, which includes:
    The successful completion of the Harbour Village development;
    A framework to help facilitate diversification of activities at the Hillhouse International site;
    The provision of greater employment opportunities;
    A strategy for the restoration and the re-use of the landfill site;
    A framework to facilitate the reinstatement of rail services to Fleetwood;
    The integration of existing communities within the SDA and the urban area;
    Improved links between the component parts of the SDA (refer to Plan 6);
    Identifiable transport links to the urban area;
    A better quality built environment; and
    Improved understanding and appreciation of the natural environment.

Further to the visioning work, the NWDA are currently preparing a Waterside Development vision
statement for the corridor and the study team will look to obtain outputs of the work, when available.

The Wyre Borough Council Local Plan First Deposit (April 2004) identifies four key development
components for the area:
1. Fleetwood Dock – housing, retail, commercial and employment uses;
2. Fleetwood Marsh and surrounding area – restoration for informal recreation and nature conservation
    purposes;
3. The Hillhouse site – business and commercial uses; and

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4.   The district of Burn Naze – housing and community uses including locally focuses service facilities,
     retailing and open space.
In terms of housing, allocations have been made at Fleetwood Dock and Stanah (south of the ICI
complex). An application has recently been submitted for 380 dwellings at Fleetwood Dock, which
contributes towards the objective of completing the Harbour Village. In 2000/2001, an application was
submitted for 525 dwellings in the corridor at Thornton. Wyre Borough Council were minded to approve
the application, but it was refused by the Secretary of State, primarily on the grounds that the site is
greenfield.

Although ICI have now suspended operations on the Hillhouse site, there are a number companies
associated with the chemical industry which are still present. These companies are currently in
negotiations with Wyre Borough Council regarding potential expansion of their operations. The 1st Deposit
Draft Wyre Borough Local Plan (2001 - 2016) further promotes the SLD concept. Strategic targets have
been set for both housing, and business and industrial development. Allocations have been made for
101.3Ha of Employment Land and a Mixed Development Opportunity Area provides for a minimum of 350
houses in contributing to the overall SLD target of 1000 houses. In delivering a comprehensive vision for
the area of land within the Strategic Location for Development it is proposed that a development strategy
and vision be prepared. That plan will encourage and guide investment in the form of a Supplementary
Planning Document (SPD) - "Strategic Location for Development Brief - Fleetwood / Thornton.

The potential role of the corridor in providing a key employment base for the area is a key issue for this
study. Of particular relevance is the vision of achieving ‘identifiable transport links to the urban area’,
which highlights the perception that the corridor is not accessible relative to other strategic sites. An
improved transport network is clearly pivotal to ensuring that the corridor meets its potential in terms of
housing, employment and tourism. The transport forecasts developed for this study reflect the proposed
increase in employment within the corridor and the distribution reflects the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan.
The forecasting methodology is explained in more detail in Chapter 110.

9.10. Future Growth of Blackpool Airport
Blackpool Airport traditionally has a basis of scheduled flights to the Isle of Man, but Ryanair services
(introduced in 2003) now provide two flights a day to London Stansted and one to Dublin. Flykeen operate
3 services a day to Belfast (via the Isle of Man) and a further direct service to Belfast. There are also a
number of irregular charter services, which operate throughout the year. The airport has a significant
geographical catchment including the Fylde Coast, north and east Lancashire and Cumbria.

Prior to the introduction of Ryanair services in 2003, passenger numbers at Blackpool Airport were
relatively static for over a decade. In 1990, the airport carried approximately 100,000 passengers, which
remained largely unchanged through to 2002. It is anticipated that passenger numbers in 2004 could
reach between 250,000 and 300,000.

In July 2004, Blackpool Council sold the airport to Wolverhampton based ‘City Hopper’ for £13 million and
there are ambitious plans for further development and growth. The Airport are looking to attract low cost
airlines to operate services to destinations such as mainland Spain, Paris and Amsterdam. Indeed, a daily
service to Barcelona is due to commence in May 2005. The immediate target is to reach 1 million
passengers within 4 years. Blackpool Airport indicate that this could be reached within 18 months, but the
current facilities may restrict this to 800,000 in the short term. The runway is not currently long enough to
handle some of the larger aircraft and there are plans to extend the runway to the east within the next 5
years. Although longer term forecasts and targets for passenger number are still to be set, the airport
consider that between 4 and 5 million passengers could be achieved by the forecast year for this study of
2016. A 10 year Masterplan for the Airport is to by drawn up by the end of the year.

Public transport access to the Airport is relatively poor as there is no rail station and at present no buses
directly serve the site. A limited number of express coaches are due to start operating in March 2005. The
need for improved public transport access is stressed under Policy T5 ‘The Regions Airports’ in Regional
Planning Guidance for the North West (RPG13), now the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS).

It is apparent from recent increases in passenger numbers and discussions with the new owners that the
future growth of Blackpool Airport and associated development impacts is a significant issue for the study.
The impacts will be incorporated within the forecasting process (see Chapter 10) and considered alongside
the Blackpool Masterplan proposals, which have the potential to transform Blackpool in to a high quality
national and European destination, where the Airport would be expected to play a key role.




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10 FORECASTING THE FUTURE




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10. Forecasting the Future

10.1. Introduction
After the validation of the highway and public transport models, the next stage in the evaluation of
strategies is an assessment of future travel demand against the existing and potential transport systems.
Following consultation with the Steering Group, the study team have identified an approach for forecasting
the number of passenger (car/public transport) trips and Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) freight movements.
An assessment of economic activity and regeneration was undertaken as part of the baseline work and
this has also informed the forecasting methodology. This assessment is included in Appendix A. This
note sets out the proposed methodology.

The study brief states that the consequences of a ‘do nothing’ approach to transport investment are to be
evaluated against low, medium and high growth scenarios in economic activity, including jobs created and
additional tourist visits. At the study inception meeting, it was agreed that the forecast year should be
2016, which would ensure consistency with the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (JLSP) for the period
2001-2016. As both the highway and public transport models have 2004 as the base year, growth factors
are required for the period 2004-2016. For forecasting purposes, the study area has been extended to
incorporate the whole of Fylde Borough, as was defined in the study brief.

10.2. Passenger Trips

 Methodology
One of the main determinants of trip growth is the assumption on demographic, economic and social
change.

As such, the growth scenarios have been informed by a range of inputs, which include:
   TEMPRO (the Government’s standard trip projection programme);
   Working Futures – New Projections of Occupational Employment (2004);
   Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (JLSP) 2001-2016;
   Local Plans 2001-2016 (Blackpool, Fylde, Wyre);
   Growth forecasts for Blackpool Airport;
   Forecast change in car occupancy; and
   Regeneration proposals for Blackpool (Urban Regeneration Company Commencement Business
    Plan: September 2004).

The future year matrices have been generated on the basis of forecast changes in the number of
households, population and employment, but also forecast changes in visitor numbers which would result
from the regeneration proposals in Blackpool and plans for the growth of Blackpool Airport.

To inform the spatial development of these scenarios, information was also sourced on the location, size
and proposed use of major new employment sites (minimum 1 Ha, or 2,500 sqm), and for major housing
sites with permission or allocations (minimum 1 Ha or 25 dwellings).

Employment
The base year employment data was generated from the number of jobs in the study area in 2001 (using
Census data), but adjusted on the basis of the percentage change between the 2001 and 2004 TEMPRO
forecasts.

The low growth scenario is represented by zero employment growth to 2016. This enabled schemes to be
assessed against a scenario where there is minimum additional demand on the transport system, thereby
presenting a worse case for scheme benefits. It is also assumed that there will be no re-distribution of
employment within the study area.

Both the medium and high growth scenarios begin with a level of employment growth derived from an
Institute of Employment Research (IER), University of Warwick/Cambridge Econometrics projection of
                                    1
employment for Lancashire to 2012 , extrapolated to our forecast year of 2016. The extrapolation
assumes the continuation of the same average annual rate of growth as used in the latter period covered
by the projections (2007 to 2012). The annual rate of growth for Lancashire to 2016 is therefore 0.4% p.a.
The study area is assumed to grow at the same rate as the county, resulting in employment growth from
2004 to 2016 of 7,300, equivalent to an overall growth of 5%. This rate of growth is very close to the
TEMPRO forecast, which predicts that the number of jobs in the study area will rise by 4% in the period
2004 to 2016.



1
 Produced for ‘Working Futures – New Projections of Occupational Employment’ (2004), commissioned by the Sector
Skills Development Agency in association with the Learning & Skills Council, Department for Employment & Skills
(DfES), Department for Work & Pensions, Department of Trade and Industry, Regional Development Agencies (RDAs)
and Regional Government Offices, which considers future skills needs on the basis of future employment levels.
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The distribution of the basic level of employment growth within the study area under both the medium and
high growth scenarios reflects the provision of employment land based on the Joint Lancashire Structure
Plan strategy and objectives. The JLSP does not forecast numbers of jobs, but does set out the level of
employment land provision required in each local authority district. Table 10.1 shows the business and
industrial land provision between 2001 and 2016, as defined by the JLSP.

Land take-up and potential take-up in Fylde and Wyre has been split down to Fylde Urban, Fylde Rural
and Wyre Urban to isolate the Wyre Rural area (outside the study area) and also ensure consistency with
TEMPRO zones. The split has been derived from the business and industrial land allocations for 2001-
2016, as defined in the respective Local Plans.

Table 10.1 JLSP Business and Industrial Land Allocations (2001-2016)


                                          Provision (Hectares) based on                            % of Employment Land
                                          JLSP Strategy and Objectives                             Provision in Study Area


Blackpool                                                      40.0                                                 20
Fylde Urban                                                     8.4                                                 4
Fylde Rural                                                    36.6                                                 18
Wyre Urban                                                    113.7                                                 57
Study Area                                                    198.7                                                100
Source: Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (2001-2016): Pre-Adoption Composite Edition (PACE)

In addition to the basic employment growth in the study area as derived from the IER/CE projections, the
medium and high scenarios are supplemented with an additional level of growth to reflect the regeneration
proposals in the Blackpool. The Blackpool Urban Regeneration Company (URC) Commencement
Business Plan (September 2004) forecasts 9,015 net additional jobs in the Blackpool Travel to Work Area,
which incorporates all of the study area. Given that this is a 15 year plan, it can be assumed that 80%
(7,212 jobs) could have been generated by 2016. In distributing these additional jobs, the study team
have assumed that 80% would be based within the Blackpool Council area, with the remainder distributed
evenly across the study area.

Table 10.2 shows the forecast change in employment which will result from applying this methodology for
the medium scenario. This forecasts that employment will increase by 7.7% across the study area. The
area which shows the largest proportional increase is Wyre Urban where an additional 3,725 jobs are
forecast, representing a 15.4% increase for the area. This reflects the high allocation of business and
industrial land in the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan. In Blackpool an additional 4,111 jobs are forecast,
which represents an increase of 6.8% for the area.

Table 10.2 Forecast Employment 2004-2016 (Medium)
                                                       2016 Forecast                 Difference                % Change
         Area                  2004 Base                                                                      (2004-2016)
                                                                                    (2004-2016)

Blackpool                         60,272                     64,383                     +4,111                     +6.8%
Fylde Urban                       18,730                     19,228                      +498                      +2.7%
Fylde Rural                       22,053                     23,412                     +1,359                    +6.2%
Wyre Urban                        24,234                     27,960                     +3,725                    +15.4%
Study Area                       125,289                    134,982                     +9,693                     +7.7%

Table 10.3 presents the forecast change in employment under the high scenario. The most significant
change from the medium scenario is the number of additional jobs (6,996) in the Blackpool area, which
represents an increase of 11.6%. The overall increase in employment forecast for the study area is
10.6%.

Table 10.3 Forecast Employment 2004-2016 (High)
                                                       2016 Forecast                 Difference                % Change
         Area                  2004 Base                                                                      (2004-2016)
                                                                                    (2004-2016)

Blackpool                         60,272                     67,268                     +6,996                    +11.6%
Fylde Urban                       18,730                     19,468                      +738                     +3.9%
Fylde Rural                       22,053                     23,652                     +1,600                    +7.3%
Wyre Urban                        24,234                     28,200                     +3,966                    +16.4%
Study Area                       125,289                    138,588                    +13,299                    +10.6%


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Households
Both the low and medium scenarios reflect household growth in line with the JLSP housing forecast. Table
10.4 presents the number of households in 2004, which has been calculated from 2001 Census data and
the annual rate of completions specified by the JLSP. This shows that the number of households in the
study area is forecast to increase by 3.3% in the period 2004-2016.

Table 10.4 Forecast Households 2004-2016 (Low/Medium)
                                                                                                  Difference                  % Change
                   Area                         2004 Base           2016 Forecast
                                                                                                 (2004-2016)                 (2004-2016)

Blackpool                                          65,551                 67,069                     +1,518                      +2.3%
Fylde Urban                                        19,960                 21,115                     +1,155                      +5.8%
Fylde Rural                                        13,268                 13,502                      +234                       +1.8%
Wyre Urban                                         33,801                 35,245                     +1,444                      +4.3%
Study Area                                        132,580                136,931                     +4,351                      +3.3%
Notes:
1) District wide allocations taken from, the JLSP 2001-2016 Pre-Adoption Composite Edition (PACE)
2) Lancashire County allocation includes additional 350 dwellings proposed in the Report of the Panel into the
EIP(March 2004)
3) Household growth is 3% below housing growth to allow for vacancies
4) 2004 base households taken from 2001 Census and adjusted on basis of annual completions

The high growth scenario adopts the same approach to converting housing projections to households as
the low and medium scenarios, but the underlying housing change is in line with recent past trends rather
than the JLSP housing provision, resulting in higher overall growth of 7.3% for the study area (Table 10.5).

Table 10.5 Forecast Households 2004-2016 (High)
                                                                                                Difference (2004-                    % Change
                   Area                         2004 Base           2016 Forecast
                                                                                                      2016)                         (2004-2016)

Blackpool                                          65,551                 68,511                        +2,960                          +4.5%
Fylde Urban                                        19,960                 22,121                        +2,161                         +10.8%
Fylde Rural                                        13,268                 14,521                        +1,253                         +9.4%
Wyre Urban                                         33,801                 37,101                        +3,300                          +9.8%
Study Area                                        132,580                142,254                        +9,674                          +7.3%
Notes:
1) District wide allocations taken from the, JLSP 2001-2016 Pre-Adoption Composite Edition (PACE)
2) Lancashire County allocation includes additional 350 dwellings proposed in the Report of the Panel into the
EIP(March 2004)
3) Household growth is 3% below housing growth to allow for vacancies
4) 2004 base households taken from 2001 Census and adjusted on basis of annual completions

Under all scenarios the household (and therefore population) growth is be distributed to reflect identified
housing land allocations, with the balance of the total growth, which is lacking a specific location,
distributed according to the current land use pattern.

Population
The population forecasts are consistent with the households forecast for the three scenarios. Population
was derived from applying the TEMPRO forecast household occupancy for 2016 to the forecast number of
households in 2016.

Table 10.6 presents the low and medium scenario forecast population in 2016 on the basis of the JLSP
household and TEMPRO household occupancy forecasts. This shows that the population of the study
area is forecast to decrease to 287,481 (-0.3%) when compared with the population in 2004.

Table 10.6 Forecast Population 2004-2016 (Low/Medium)
                                                                                                 Difference                 % Change
Area                                           2004 Base 2016 Forecast
                                                                                                (2004-2016)                (2004-2016)
Blackpool                                         145,041                141,958                     -3,083                     -2.1%
Fylde Urban                                        40,070                 41,376                     +1,306                     +3.3%
Fylde Rural                                        31,466                 30,657                      -810                      -2.6%
Wyre Urban                                         73,026                 73,490                      +464                      +0.6%
Study Area                                        289,603                287,481                     -2,123                     -0.7%

The population forecast under the high scenario is presented in Table 10.7, which is calculated by applying
the forecast TEMPRO occupancy in 2016 to the forecast number of households. This results in a forecast
increase in population of 3.1% across the study area between 2004 and 2016.
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Table 10.7 Forecast Population 2004-2016 (High)
                                                                                                     Difference                     % Change
Area                                            2004 Base           2016 Forecast
                                                                                                    (2004-2016)                     (2004-2016)

Blackpool                                         145,041                145,010                           -31                              0.0%
Fylde Urban                                        40,070                 43,347                        +3,277                          +8.2%
Fylde Rural                                        31,466                 32,971                        +1,504                          4.8%
Wyre Urban                                         73,026                 77,359                        +4,333                              5.9%
Study Area                                        289,603                298,687                        +9,084                          +3.1%

Visitors
In 2003 the number of visitors to Blackpool was estimated to be in the region of 10.6 million per year,
which has fallen from over 13 million in 1987. Day trips are known to comprise 58% of these visits. The
Blackpool URC Commencement Business Plan states that visitor numbers are expected to nearly double
to 20 million upon delivery of the new major visitor destinationsattractions. The timeline suggests that the
main attractions will be in place by the study forecast year of 2016. As such, it is important that the
forecast increase visitor numbers are incorporated within the medium and high scenarios.

A programme of roadside interviews (RSI) was undertaken in Blackpool on weekdays during last week of
September 1999. An analysis of the journey purpose data has been undertaken and the results are
presented in Table 10.8.

Table 10.8 Journey Purpose (Car trips) from Blackpool RSI Surveys (September 1999)

 Journey Purpose                                                                     AM Peak (%)                     PM Peak (%)

 Home Based Work                                                                            69%                             43%
 Home based other                                                                           10%                             22%
 Non home based business                                                                     5%                              5%
 Non home based other                                                                        4%                             10%
 Home based education                                                                       11%                              4%
 Home based shopping                                                                         1%                              8%
 Home Based Entertainment/Illuminations                                                      1%                              5%
 Non Home Based Entertainment/Illuminations                                                  0%                              3%
 Total                                                                                     100%                            100%

For these purposes it is assumed that visitor trips are represented by the Home Based and Non Home
Based Entertainment/Illuminations category. It is therefore apparent that together these categories
comprise just 1% of trips in the AM Peak and 8% of trips in the PM Peak.

In order to reflect the forecast increase in visitor numbers in the medium and high growth scenarios, the
entertainment and illuminations trips were factored up across the 1999 RSI cordon. As with employment,
the medium scenario will assume 50% of the forecast increase in visitors will be realised, whereas the high
forecast will assume 100%. The low scenario assumes that visitor numbers will continue to decrease in
line with past trends, which equates to a 20% reduction in visitor trips between 2004 and 2016. This
entertainment and illuminations trips have therefore been factored down accordingly.

Blackpool Airport
The number of passengers using the Airport has increased markedly over recent years from around
100,000 in 2002 to approaching 300,000 in 2004. This follows the successful introduction of ‘budget’
services to London Stansted and Dublin. City Hopper Airports have recently acquired a controlling stake in
Blackpool Airport from the Council and announced further expansion plans.

The three major physical and operational constraints to expansion are the length of the runway, which
limits the size of aircraft the Airport can handle, the size of the apron, which can only hold five aircraft at
any one time and the terminal capacity. In the current operational environment it is our considered view
that the most important influence on passenger throughput is the apron size.

Assuming a turnaround period of 45 minutes (taken from Ryanair’s operation at Blackpool), the number of
departures per hour would be restricted to a maximum of seven. The study team have learned that the
Airport consider the Boeing 737-800, Airbus A320 and Embraer (170/190) aircraft to be important in
providing services in the future. Taking the average capacity of these aircraft and assuming a 90%
average loading, the number of passengers per hour could reach around 900. Assuming a public transport
mode share of 10%, and average vehicle occupancy of two (approximate at Manchester Airport), 900
passengers could generate around 400 vehicle trips per hour to the Airport.

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400 trips is approximately 10% of the vehicles entering the Airport Cordon at Manchester Airport during the
AM Peak hour. Manchester Airport currently carries approximately 20 million passengers, which indicates
that Blackpool Airport could potentially carry two million passengers a year. This is consistent with the
Blackpool URC Business Plan (September 2004) which states that the Airport will carry an additional 1.8
million passengers.

The associated increase in employment at the Airport is incorporated within the employment forecasts.
These reflect the Blackpool URC Commencement Business Plan (September 2004) which forecasts that
1,350 jobs will be generated at the Airport.

Summary of Scenarios

The low, medium and high scenarios for passenger trips can be summarised as follows:

1.     Low
The change in number of households is to be derived from the JLSP forecast household growth. Zero
employment growth is assumed, which represents a pessimistic option for future economic growth in the
area. This in turn implies no real change to the net outflow of commuter trips in the morning. It is
assumed that the number of visitor trips remains constant.

2.      Medium
This scenario is also represented by household change as forecast by the JLSP. Employment change is
not forecast as part of the JLSP, but business and industrial land provision is allocated. A Sector and
Skills Development Agency forecast for Lancashire was used, and the employment places distributed on
the basis of the business and industrial land provision in the JLSP and Local Plans. This scenario also
incorporates some employment growth resulting from the Blackpool Masterplan. It is assumed that 50% of
the net increase in employment forecast in the Blackpool Urban Regeneration Company (URC)
Commencement Business Plan (September 2004), will be realised. The scenario also includes 50% of the
business plans forecast increase in visitor numbers and forecast increase in passenger numbers at
Blackpool Airport as stated above.

3.      High
The high scenario is represented by household change in line with past completions. This generates a
larger increase in household growth, but the increase will be distributed on the basis of the JLSP forecast.
Employment change will be largely consistent with the medium scenario, but will assume that 100% of the
forecast net increase resulting from the Blackpool URC Commencement Business Plan will be realised.
The scenario also incorporates 100% of the business plans forecast increase in visitor numbers and the
forecast increase in passengers at Blackpool Airport as stated above.

10.3. Freight

Introduction
The Port of Fleetwood is one of four in the North West categorised by the Department for Transport as
‘major ports’ (those with a total cargo of at least 1 million tonnes per annum). Given the differing influence
of traffic growth, it was considered reasonable to forecast growth for the port and non-port separately. In
the case of Fleetwood, this can be linked in part to the Northern Ireland economy, which has grown
significantly in recent years.

The port-related HGV traffic was identified from surveys undertaken by the study team on the A585 in July
2004. The results of the surveys were used as an input to the traffic model to ensure that HGV
movements to the port are properly represented.

Three scenarios (Low, Medium and High) have been identified for port related traffic. The growth factors
for each scenario for port related and non-port related HGV traffic are shown in Table 10.9 and the
methodology is explained below.

Table 10.9 HGV Growth Factors (2004-2016)

           Scenario                                Port Related                              Non-Port Related

             Low                                          0                                           +6%
            Medium                                      +33%                                          +13%
             High                                       +51%                                          +19%

Port Related
The port handled 1,521,000 tonnes of freight in 2002. Given an estimated average 22 tonnes of freight per
laden shipping unit (driver accompanied artics or unaccompanied semi trailers), this equates to
approximately 69,100 port related HGV movements per annum. Given an additional 10% for solo tractor
unit movements for semi trailer collection, the estimated total number of port related HGV movements is
76,000.

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There are currently three sailings a day (10:00 hours, 22:00 hours and 03:00 hours) between Fleetwood
and Larne, which are operated by the same number of vessels. The third sailing (03:00) was introduced in
1999 and acts as a ‘mop up’ in catering for surplus traffic from the premium driver accompanied sailing at
22:00 hours. The 10:00 and 22:00 hours sailings currently operate at near 100% capacity, whereas the
03:00 hour sailing operates at around 75% capacity. One option currently being considered is
replacement of the three vessels with two ‘max’ vessels, which would be the largest accessible to the port.
These would be fast enough to cover the existing three sailings from each port.

The three scenarios developed for port related HGV traffic are as follows:

1. Low
The low growth forecast represents no additional HGV traffic in 2016 from the 2004 base year flows. This
can be considered a fairly pessimistic scenario given the recent growth in the Northern Ireland economy.

2. Medium
This forecast is represented by an increase in HGV traffic (2004-2016) equivalent to the additional capacity
provided from the provision of a fourth sailing with a similar sized vessel (+33%) between Fleetwood and
Larne. Given the need for replacement of the existing vessels, it is more likely that this would be achieved
by introducing new larger and faster vessels. Such growth may also have implications for the quayside
infrastructure, which is nearing the end of its lifespan.

3. High
Following a long period of stagnation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Northern Ireland is now growing
at 3% per annum. The HM Treasury ‘Forecasts for the UK Economy’ states that GDP could rise by up to
3.5% per annum by 2005. The high forecast therefore assumes that port related HGV traffic will grow at
3.5% per annum between 2004 and 2016, which equates to a 51% rise over the period. As with the
medium forecast, this will have implications in terms of new vessels and possibly the quayside
infrastructure. In the early 1980’s planning permission was granted for the construction of a second berth
at Fleetwood, but it was not constructed. The requirement for a second berth may need to be reviewed
under such a scenario and costs incorporated within the strategy options.

Non-Port Related

1. Low
This scenario assumes that current non-port related HGV traffic for local distribution and servicing activity
grows in line with the low rigid HGV forecast from National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF) 1997. The rigid
HGV figure is used owing to the predominance of 7.5 Tonnes rigid vehicles on local servicing and
distribution activity in urban areas. The NRTF forecasts that rigid HGV traffic will increase by 0.43% per
annum between 2001 and 2006, by 0.46% per annum between 2006 and 2011 and by 0.55% per annum
between 2011 and 2016. Using these factors, HGV traffic is forecast to grow by 6% over the period 2004-
2016. Although the low forecast for employment assumes no additional jobs, it is plausible that this
increase in HGV traffic could result from increased spending and higher real GDP per capita.

2. Medium
The medium forecast assumes that current non port-related HGV traffic for local distribution and servicing
activity grows in line with the central rigid HGV forecast from National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF)
1997. NRTF forecasts that rigid HGV traffic will increase by 0.77% per annum between 2001 and 2006,
by 0.80% per annum between 2006 and 2011 and by 0.91% per annum between 2011 and 2016. Using
these factors, HGV traffic would be forecast to grow by 11% over the period 2004-2016.

In addition, the medium scenario incorporates potential HGV traffic growth resulting from the Blackpool
Masterplan. The Blackpool Urban Regeneration Company Business Plan (September 2003) forecasts the
net increase of 9,015 jobs within the Blackpool Travel to Work Area (TTWA). In the absence of specific
traffic forecasts, it is assumed that HGV traffic will grow in line with the employment forecasts.

Given that the 15 year timeframe, it is assumed that 80% of the forecast net additional jobs will be in place
by the study forecast year of 2016. The medium forecast assumes that 50% of these will have come to
fruition, which equates to 3,606 jobs (+2.3%), from the 2004 base employment in the Blackpool TTWA, as
forecast by TEMPRO. By incorporating the regeneration proposals, HGV traffic is forecast to increase by
13% between 2004 and 2016.

3. High
The high forecast assumes that current non port-related HGV traffic for local distribution and servicing
activity grows in line with the high rigid HGV forecast from National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF) 1997.
The NRTF forecasts that rigid HGV traffic will increase by 1.07% per annum between 2001 and 2006, by
1.10% per annum between 2006 and 2011 and by 1.2% per annum between 2011 and 2016. Using these
factors, HGV traffic would be forecast to grow by 15% over the period 2004-2016.

The high scenario also incorporates potential HGV traffic growth resulting from the Blackpool Masterplan
and assumes that HGV traffic will grow in line with employment. As with the medium scenario, it is also
assumed that 80% of the forecast net additional jobs will be in place by the study forecast year of 2016.
However, the high scenario assumes that 100% of these will have come to fruition, which equates to 7,212
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jobs (+4.7%), from the 2004 base employment in the Blackpool TTWA, as forecast by TEMPRO. By
incorporating the Masterplan, HGV traffic is forecast to increase by 19% between 2004 and 2016.

10.4. Forecast Trip Growth 2004-2016

Trip Growth by Mode (2004-2016)
Table 10.10 presents the percentage change in trips by mode and scenario for the AM and PM Peak
periods. This shows that the overall level of growth forecast is between 2% and 3% under the low
scenario, around 11% under the medium scenario and 14.5% for the high scenario.

The medium scenario forecast was used in the assessment of the strategy options and recommended
strategy. It should be noted that the low scenario for car and public transport is based on pessimistic
assumptions, which include zero employment growth, declining population and a continuation of the
decline in visitor numbers to Blackpool. The low percentage trip growth forecast under this scenario
reflects an increased propensity to make trips and rising car ownership levels. The low scenario was
developed in order that the recommended strategy could be tested against a worst-case scenario in terms
of economic benefits. The overall level of growth forecast under the medium and scenarios are fairly
similar as both assume that regeneration in Blackpool will result in increased employment and visitors,
albeit to varying degrees.

Table 10.10 Change in Trips by Mode (2004-2016)
                                           AM Peak                                                            PM Peak
  Scenario                                            Public             All                                           Public                All
                       Car            HGV           Transport           Trips           Car            HGV           Transport              Trips
  Low                +2.0%           +5.9%            +0.6%            +2.1%          +3.4%           +6.2%             -3.1%               +3.2%
  Medium            +11.2%          +13.6%           +12.9%           +11.4%         +10.8%          +13.4%            +15.0%           +11.0%

  High              +13.1%          +20.2%           +17.6%           +13.5%         +14.0%          +20.2%            +22.0%           +14.5%


Change in Total Trips by Sector (2004-2016)
Table 10.11 presents the change in the number of origins and destinations by sector for the AM Peak
under the medium growth scenario. The sector boundaries are shown in Figure 7.2. It should be noted
that the ‘Wyre Rural’ sector is not located within the study area, but is included in this analysis to illustrate
the changing patterns of movement.

In the AM Peak it is apparent that the largest increase in origins is from the ‘External’ sector from where
over 2400 additional trips are forecast, representing an increase of 37.6%. This reflects the increase in
trips to the study area resulting from the high level of employment growth. The increase in origins within
the study area during the AM Peak is comparatively low owing to the low population growth forecast. The
largest increase in destinations is to ‘Blackpool’ where an additional 2522 trips (+11.1%) are forecast,
followed by ‘Wyre Urban’ where an additional 962 trips (14.8%) are forecast. This is a result of the
assumptions relating to the increase in employment to follow from regeneration in Blackpool and the
Fleetwood to Thornton Development Corridor, in addition to the growth of Blackpool Airport. The number
of destinations to ‘Fylde Urban’ also shows a significant increase, which is partly a result of the growth
forecasts for Blackpool Airport (some of which is located within Fylde Borough.

The forecast increase in trips from the ‘External’ sector begins to re-dress the net outflow of trips from the
study area in the AM Peak.

Table 10.11 Change in Total Trips by Sector (2004-2016) - AM Peak (Medium Scenario)

             Sector                                    Origins                                  Destinations

  Wyre Urban                                      +545 (+8.2%)                                 +962 (+14.8%)
  Blackpool                                      +1241 (+6.0%)                                +2522 (+11.1%)

  Fylde Urban                                      +828 (+11.6)                                +856 (+12.6%)
  Wyre Rural                                      +233 (+9.9%)                                  +134 (+8.3%)
  Fylde Rural                                     +344 (+5.5%)                                  +477 (+8.6%)
  External                                      +2484 (+37.6%)                                 +723 (+11.2%)
  Total                                         +5675 (+11.4%)                                +5675 (+11.4%)

Table 10.12 shows the equivalent information for the PM Peak under the medium scenario. This
demonstrates the corresponding increase in destinations to the ‘External’ sector and increase in origins
from ‘Blackpool.

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Table 10.12 Change in Total Trips by Sector (2004-2016) - PM Peak (Medium Scenario)
             Sector                                    Origins                                  Destinations

  Wyre Urban                                     +657 (+11.3%)                                  +450 (+7.5%)
  Blackpool                                     +2900 (+12.1%)                                 +1909 (+7.9%)

  Fylde Urban                                    +970 (+12.6%)                                +1004 (+12.8%)
  Wyre Rural                                      +135 (+7.1%)                                  +187 (+8.1%)
  Fylde Rural                                     +405 (+7.7%)                                  +216 (+5.5%)
  External                                        +584 (+8.8%)                                 +1885 (27.1%)
  Total                                         +5651 (+11.0%)                                +5651 (+11.0%)




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11 IDENTIFICATION OF OPTIONS




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11. Identification of Options

11.1. Specification of the Do Minimum
The study team have liased with the Steering Group to identify existing schemes, which are expected to be
completed by 2016. Following these discussions, it is proposed that the Do Minimum should comprise a
number of schemes over and above the existing transport network (see Figure 11.1):
   Improve Little Singleton Junction;
   Improve Windy Harbour Junction;
   Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road; and
   Line 14 Quality Bus Corridor.

The A585 Route Management Strategy (RMS) included recommendations to improve the Little Singleton
and Windy Harbour junctions. The RMS does not specify the individual schemes, but over recent years
the Highways Agency have developed a number of options for the Little Singleton junction. Of these, the
roundabout option had the greatest impact in terms of reducing delays at the junction. Whilst there is
uncertainty regarding implementation of the roundabout at Little Singleton, it was considered prudent to
incorporate the scheme as it would present a ‘worst case’ in assessing the benefits for the M55-Norcross
Route options. This would also be consistent with the tests undertaken by Lancashire County Council
(circa 2001). The scheme at Windy Harbour would most likely comprise adding a right turn lane in the
northbound direction (towards A586). The A585 RMS also recommended improving the Shard Road
junction, but a scheme has still to be specified for this.

The Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road is a scheme targeted particularly at reducing unnecessary
traffic movements along key routes, such as the Promenade. Some minor elements of the scheme have
already been introduced. Whilst the majority of the scheme is only at a very preliminary design stage and
funding is not committed, it is included in the Do Minimum, as the scheme is to be progressed as a matter
of priority within the next Blackpool Local Transport Plan (2006-2011). The scheme has been coded into
the ‘Do Minimum’ highway model network and improved journey times on the route have been represented
by removal of delays at signals.

The Line 14 Quality Bus Corridor proposals are currently being progressed by Blackpool Council. This
is a high frequency key strategic north-south bus route in the study area connecting Fleetwood, Blackpool
and St Annes. As such, it is considered to be one of the most important routes in Blackpool, Fylde and
Wyre. A range of measures have been identified to improve passenger facilities and reduce delays for
buses at key junctions. The aspirations for the route are reflected in the Blackpool Council and Lancashire
County Council target for achieving a 15% increase in the level of patronage on the route.

There are a number of notable exemptions from the Do Minimum. An Annex E was submitted in July 2001
for the conversion of the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway to modern Light Rail standards. In July 2004,
the Department for Transport announced that the bid for Phase 1 of the scheme had not been approved.
The relevant partners are currently working on preparing a revised bid. Given the uncertainty regarding
funding, the scheme is not included within the Do Minimum and it is assumed that the existing system will
be retained and maintained.


The completion of the M55 – Heyhouses link road would provide a direct link between the M55 and St
Annes. It was anticipated that approximately 50% of the funding would be made available from a private
developer as part of an application for a housing development. Progression of the scheme has been put
on hold as the development has been referred to the Secretary of State and a decision is still awaited. It
was therefore decided to exclude this scheme from the Do Minimum and introduce it as part of the
Strategy Options 1 to 6.

11.2. Potential Measures for Assessment
Following the baseline and consultation stages of the study a range of potential measures were identified
which could contribute to meeting the study objectives. The schemes were identified through the Local
Transport Plans, the Steering Group, Wider Consultees, the study team and the public. This includes
many of the existing schemes identified in Chapter 8. This section provides a description each measure to
be taken forward to the assessment stage, including the origin/history of schemes (where applicable) and
capital cost estimates in 2004 prices.

Phase 3 of the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway (identified in Chapter 8) has not been taken forward to this
stage. The scheme comprised of an extension along existing and former rail corridors from Blackpool
North Station to Poulton-le-Fylde and Thornton, rejoining the existing alignment south of Fleetwood. The
study team were advised that there are issues regarding the feasibility of constructing Phase 3 within the
study timescales and that the as such the scheme should not be assessed within thee study.




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M55-Norcross Route Options
The various M55-Norcross route options are re-assessed in terms of their appropriateness and
deliverability. It should be noted that the Blue, Yellow, Pink, Purple and Green routes are consistent north
of the junction with the A586, where there are alternative north and south route options to Skippool. For
the purposes of these assessments, the south option has been used for each route, as it is the least
expensive option and reduces vehicle kilometres on the network. All cost estimates are in 2004 prices and
include an optimism bias allowance of 45%. A technical note detailing the cost estimate assumption has
been prepared and submitted to the Highways Consultancy at Lancashire County Council. The alignments
for the route options are shown in Figure 8.2.

Red Route
More commonly known as the Fylde Coast Easterly Bypass, this dual 2 grade separated scheme provides
a direct link between the M55 at Junction 4 and the A585 (T) at Norcross. The alignment of the route runs
immediately adjacent to Marton Mere and the communities of Staining, Normoss and Carleton. In order to
reduce the environmental impact of the scheme, much of the route was to be built in a cutting with pump
drainage.

Although the scheme was not well received at public consultation, it was selected as the preferred route in
1992 as it performed two functions in addressing congestion problems on both the A585 (T) and north-
south routes in Blackpool. However, the scheme was considered to be very environmentally sensitive and
high risk in engineering terms. The scheme was withdrawn at the review of the Trunk Road Programme in
1994, but the alignment continues to be protected by Lancashire County Council. The scheme has been
re-evaluated as part of this study and the updated cost estimate for the scheme is £190.2 million.

Blue Route
This is an at-grade link (Dual 2) from the M55 (east of Junction 4) to Skippool, following the alignment of
the rail line with widening of the existing A585 (T) as far as Norcross. The route also bypasses the Windy
Harbour and Singleton Crossroads junctions. The revised cost estimate for the scheme is £103.9 million.

Yellow Route
This is an at-grade link (Dual 2) between Greenhalgh and Skippool, with widening of the existing A585 (T)
as far as Norcross. The route runs between Weeton Camp and Singleton, bypassing the Windy Harbour
and Singleton Crossroads junctions.

The route was the most popular at the public consultation undertaken in the early 1990’s, was not selected
as the preferred option as it has less impact on congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool. The
revised cost estimate for the scheme is £95.8 million.

Pink Route
This is a new at-grade (Dual 2) link primarily running alongside the existing A585 (T) between the M55
(Junction 3) and Norcross. The route bypasses the congested Singleton Crossroads junction. The revised
cost estimate for the scheme is £113.9 million.

Purple Route
This route is consistent with the pink route running alongside the existing A585 (T) but then running to the
north of Singleton village to Skippool. The existing A585 (T) would be widened between Skippool and
Norcross. The route bypasses the Windy Harbour and Singleton Crossroads junctions. The revised cost
estimate for the scheme is £128.8 million.

Green Route (lower cost alternative)
A low cost alternative has been identified which is consistent with the Purple Route west of the junction of
the A585 (T) and the B5269 (Mile Road), but there are no changes to the road network south of the B5269.
This route would also bypass the Singleton Crossroads and Windy Harbour junctions. The estimated cost
of the scheme is £86.0 million.

20mph zone on Blackpool Promenade
The promenade currently performs a number of conflicting functions including a walkway for pedestrians
along the sea front, providing access to the beach and piers, the route of the tramway and dual
carriageway which carries a high volume of through traffic. It is clear that these differing functions give rise
to conflicts between different users resulting in road safety issues and a high number of accidents. In the
five year period from 1999-2003, there were over 170 recorded personal injury accidents and over 240
casualties on the section of the Promenade between North Pier and South Pier.

A 20 mph zone between North Pier and South Pier (see Figure 11.2) would give the opportunity to create a
gateway into this core area, thereby increasing driver attention and reducing the accident risk to vulnerable
road users. With a lower speed the likelihood of a fatal or serious accident falls.

Given the volume of through traffic on the Promenade, implementation of a 20 mph zone would clearly
have implications for other north-south routes in Blackpool. The Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road
has the potential to accommodate traffic from the Promenade and is included in the Do Minimum. It is
therefore considered that the Distributor Road should be implemented prior to a 20mph zone.
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A cost of £1.6 million has been allocated to the scheme which could include:
   20mph signage per side junction & at start/finish at either end;
   Repeat 10/20mph signage every 60 metres;
   'Bus friendly' vertical features (eg speed cushions); and
   Road markings - roundels etc.

The vertical features comprise the highest proportion of the cost allocation. There may also be
opportunities for providing additional public realm improvements, which could be provided at an additional
cost.

Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1 (Starr Gate - Fleetwood)
Phase 1 comprises upgrading infrastructure, vehicles, systems and operation of the existing Tramway
route to allow for a modern high quality metro service to be operated between Fleetwood and Starr Gate
(see Figure 11.2). This will include the provision of a fleet of new low-floor trams, together with the
upgrading of selected trams from the existing fleet, new low-platform stops, provision of traffic signals at
road crossings and priority for trams. This is forecast to result in a reduction of the end-to-end journey time
of around 25%. An Annex E submission for funding the scheme was submitted to the Department for
Transport in 2001, but in 2004 it was announced that the bid had not been approved. For the purposes of
this study, the estimated cost of the scheme is £106.5 million, which includes 44% optimism bias. The
level of optimism bias is lower than the standard rate as the scheme relates to upgrading an existing
system and is not considered to be subject to the same level of cost escalation risk as other LRT schemes.
It should be noted that the relevant partners are currently preparing a revised bid, which is likely to reduce
the cost to Government.

The study team have benchmarked the Blackpool Tramway costs against the outurn costs of other Light
Rail Schemes in the UK (re-based to 2004/05 prices). The outurn costs used were taken from the Report
by the Comptroller and Auditor General ‘Improving public transport in England through light rail’ (April
2004). A comparison of costs per kilometre showed the Blackpool Tramway costs to be in a similar
ballpark to other schemes which primarily use existing rail alignments.

Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 2 (Lytham St Annes – Blackpool)
Phase 2 would build upon the conversion of the existing Tramway to modern LRT standards (Phase 1) and
comprises of an extension to St Annes and Lytham and a link to Blackpool North Station. The alignment of
the scheme is shown in Figure 11.3.

The scheme would use the existing South Fylde line alignment and involve further works on the Phase 1
Tramway alignment. The section of the existing rail line between the Pleasure Beach and Blackpool South
would be curtailed. It is anticipated that Phase 2 would significantly improve public transport connectivity
between the northern and southern areas of the Fylde, improve the level and quality of service on the
South Fylde line and improve connections to the expanding Blackpool Airport.

The Annex E submission prepared in 2001 estimated the cost of the Phase 2 extension to be £72.5 million
(2001/02 prices). For the purposes of assessment within this study, a broad working cost estimate of £90
million (2004 prices) has been used, but it should be noted that costs for the scheme are to be revised by
Steer Davis Gleave.

Complementary Measures
The highway model tests show that the M55-Norcross scheme options have significant traffic impacts on
the surrounding highway network. This provides an opportunity to consider the use of road space where
traffic flows are to be reduced, including the reallocation to more sustainable modes of transport (ie
pedestrians, cyclists and public transport). Conversely, mitigation measures may be required on the links
where traffic flows are forecast to increase, although these are fewer in number. All of the scheme options
will enable re-allocation of roadspace on the current alignment of the A585, which could include the
redesign of junctions such as Singleton Crossroads to improve facilities for vulnerable road users.

A cost allowance of £3.5 million has been made, allowing for complementary measures along 20 km of
the road network, including the key section of the A585 between the M55 (Junction 3) and Norcross. The
cost is based on a rate of £170,000 per kilometre, which has been derived from work undertaken by
FaberMaunsell earlier in 2004 for complementary measures included as part of the Annex E submission
for the SEMMMS Relief Roads in Greater Manchester.

Completion of M55 – Heyhouses Link Road
There is currently no direct link between the M55 motorway and St. Annes. Access by way of the Squires
Gate Link road is circuitous, as is the main alternative route via Queensway, School Road and Whitehill
Road. The more direct route via Wild Lane/North Houses Lane is a single track road with passing places.
Fylde Borough Council considers that a new direct link road to the motorway is necessary in order to
accommodate growth. As such, a link from the M55 – Heyhouses (see Figure 11.2) is included in the
Lancashire Joint Structure Plan.

The northern section of the road, just south of Junction 4 (M55), has been constructed as part of a retail
development and a section to the south has also been completed. Planning permission for the remainder
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of the road was routed in 2001. It was anticipated that approximately 50% of the funding would be made
available from a private developer as part of an application for a housing development. However,
progression of the scheme has been put on hold as the development has been referred to the Secretary of
State and a decision is still awaited. The revised cost estimate for the scheme is £15.2 million (2004
prices), which includes an optimism bias allowance of 45%.




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Enhanced Demand Responsive Public Transport
Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) is an innovative form of public transport that utilises recent
developments in information technology and telematics to deliver flexible, user orientated bus services.

The key elements of the system are the ability to:
   Accept advance booking of trip requests by telephone and internet as well as conventional bus stop
    pick-up;
   Dynamically update timetables, routes and schedules to accommodate these requests; and
   Communicate this revised scheduling information to vehicles and drivers in real time.

The DRT services currently in place in the study area are operated by ‘Ride-Ability’ and ‘WyldereFyre’.
Ride-Ability’ essentially serves elderly and disabled people in Blackpool and urban areas of Wyre, whereas
‘WyldereFyre’ is available to all and serves rural areas of Wyre and Fylde.

WyldreFyre pilot was launched in 2002, initially with one bus provided by Blackpool, Wyre and Fylde NHS
Trust. The function of the service is now broader and it operates three buses with 50% of the funding
being provided by the Health Care Trust and the remainder being sourced by Lancashire County Council
and the Countryside Agency. The aim of ‘WyldeFyre’ is now to provide a community based accessible and
affordable transport service for isolated people in the rural Wyre and Fylde area.

Blackpool have operated dial-a-ride services for around 15 years and these have been branded as ‘Ride-
Ability’ since 2000. Four buses now operate and a service has recently been launched between Kirkham
and Blackpool, branded as the ‘Kirkham Link’.

Enhanced DRT in the study area could include a review of the existing services provided by ‘WyldeFyre’
and ‘Ride-Ability’ with a focus on the potential for demand responsive transport to provide access to
employment, particularly to outlying sites which are not well served by public transport (eg Blackpool
Technology Park). The review could also examine the potential for better linkages with other service
providers and improved marketing of existing services.

In Blackpool, DRT could play a significant role in improving access to outlying employment sites, which are
not well served by conventional public transport. A capital cost of £0.5 million has been allocated for the
provision of an additional three buses, but it should be noted that there are likely to be high revenue
implications in terms of the level of subsidy required. An indicative estimate based on previous experience
of this type of operation is £200,000 per annum (Urban Bus Challenge bids and Deeside Shuttle Project).

Enhanced Ticketing
The main bus operators in the study area are Blackpool Transport and Stagecoach. Blackpool Transport
serve the urban areas of Blackpool, Wyre and Fylde, but Stagecoach are the predominant areas in the
rural areas of Fylde. Blackpool Transport currently offer a ‘Zone Card’ which is valid on all of their bus and
tram services across the Fylde Coast area. The ‘Zone Card’ is also valid on HandyBus but does not cover
Stagecoach services. In order to improve integration between the operators and facilitate interchange, it is
recommended that the ‘Zone Card’ is extended to cover all bus operators and rail services in the Fylde
Coast area. It is suggested that peak and off peak versions of the card should be made available. The
tickets could be set up to allow integration within any future Smartcard scheme.

Driver Rest Facilities/Lorry Park on the A585
Driver rest facilities and lorry parking are important support services to road freight based within the study
area and, to an even greater extent, for freight vehicles travelling into or through the region to collect or
deliver, or for shipping to and from Northern Ireland through the Port of Fleetwood. Drivers of most goods
vehicles over 3.5 Tonnes Maximum Gross Weight are required to take breaks from driving throughout the
day and overnight rest by the European Union Driver Hours Directive 3820/85. Even when drivers of
goods vehicles are not mandated to stop by legislation, they may have a legitimate need to stop and rest in
locations away from base or their designated destination.

In recent times, lorry parking areas have become increasingly high profile with drivers and operators
complaining about the lack of secure parking and driver facilities. The matter is not as straightforward as
some people think because the transport industry is differentiated by need. This measure would require a
supporting piece of work to review driver rest and lorry parking facilities within the Study Area. This review
could identify the level of use of any existing facilities and the potential demand at specific locations for
additional facilities. The demand for sites serving the Port of Fleetwood would play a particularly important
role in this review, which would cover not only an assessment of available vehicle space, but also the level
of facilities made available for drivers.

Enhanced Cycle Network
In consultation with the Steering Group and relevant cycling officers, the study team have reviewed the
current cycle network in the study area. This has been undertaken with the objective of identifying a
proposed network for the Fylde Coast which contributes towards reducing congestion on the A585(T) and
on north-south routes in Blackpool and which is an integrated network across the Blackpool, Fylde and
Wyre borough boundaries.

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Consultation with Lancashire County Council (LCC) in conjunction with Fylde and Wyre identified the
following issues:
    Aspiration for a route alongside the A585(T) Amounderness Way – key for accessing employment
     sites;
    Need to develop routes from Blackpool eastwards to Wyre and Fylde;
    Requirement to improve routes around and across the Wyre Estuary;
    Promenade route from North Shore should be extended beyond the Blackpool boundary;
    Cycle routes are required to Poulton-le-Fylde station;
    Outline proposals for a route along the southside of the estuary;
    Poor cycle access between St Annes and the M55 (Junction 4); and
    Extension of the route on the B5261 Queensway that currently terminates at the Fylde boundary.

LCC have advised that routes between Stanah and Fleetwood and a joint cycle/footway on the
Amounderness Way (A585) have been identified as provisional schemes for the next Lancashire Local
Transport Plan (2006-2011). It is intended that the Amounderness Way scheme could be implemented
jointly with the Highways Agency.

Blackpool Council have recently implemented a second major cycle route, linking the town centre and
Staining, where the route is connected to the Lancashire Cycleway. This completes a section of the
National Cycle Network (NCN) between Blackpool and Kellamergh, near Warton. The main scheme being
progressed at present is Layton District Centre. Within the next Local Transport Plan (LTP) period (2006-
2011), Blackpool Council are also looking to develop a cycle route on the southern section of the
Promenade as far as Squires Gate. A proposed cycle network has been put forward within the LTP
Annual Progress Report (2003/04), which covers most of the principal road network. The approach for the
next LTP is likely to concentrate on addressing key junctions which are dangerous to cyclists.

The main routes forming the enhanced cycle network proposals are as follows:
   Promenade (Blackpool boundary – Fleetwood);
   Promenade (North Pier – Squires Gate);
   Heyhouses–Preston New Road;
   Fleetwood – Poulton-le-Fylde (via Stanah and Skippool);
   Skippool – Hambleton (via Shard Bridge);
   Singleton – Fleetwood (via A585 Amounderness Way);
   Queensway (Fylde boundary) – Hawes Side/Devonshire Road; and
   Blackpool – Skippool (via Poulton-le-Fylde).

Existing and proposed cycle routes in the study area are shown in Figure 121.54. The cost of developing
the proposed cycle network has been estimated at £2.8 million (2004 prices). This has been calculated
on the basis of £20 per metre for on-road routes and £40 per metre for off road routes.

Enhanced Driver Information
This measure includes the provision of Variable Message Signs (VMS) on the M55 and A585(T). VMS
signs can provide up-to-date information on traffic conditions on the surrounding road network, resulting in
reduced journey times, lower levels of driver stress and lower numbers of accidents.

It is suggested that 2 by 16 digit cantilever stands could be implemented on the M55 and 2 by 12 digit VMS
signs be constructed on the preferred M55-Norcross (A585) scheme. This would enable the provision of
information on signed diversionary routes for incidents on the M55/A585 and also real time ferry
information for the Fleetwood to Larne Ro-Ro service. Based on VMS sign unit costs of £102,000 (2 by 16
digit) and £60,000 (2 by 12 digit) and using the guidelines of one sign per kilometre, a cost of £3.7 million
allowed for the provision of 22 signs on the M55 and 24 signs on the A585 (T).

Enhanced Bus Services to Blackpool Airport
Blackpool Airport traditionally has a basis of scheduled flights to the Isle of Man, but Ryanair services
(introduced in 2003) now provide two flights a day to London Stansted and one to Dublin. Further to this,
Ryanair have recently announced that a daily service to Barcelona will begin operating from March 2005.
Prior to the introduction of these services in 2003, passenger numbers at Blackpool Airport were relatively
static for over a decade. In 1990, the Airport carried approximately 100,000 passengers, which remained
largely unchanged through to 2002. It is anticipated that passenger numbers in 2004 could reach between
250,000 and 300,000. The immediate target is to reach 1 million passengers within 4 years. Blackpool
Airport indicates that this could be reached within 18 months, but current facilities may restrict this to
800,000 in the short term.

Whilst a number of local and express bus services pass the entrance to Blackpool Airport on Squires Gate
Lane, there are no services currently providing direct access to the Airport site. As the Airport grows, the
need for good public transport access will become increasingly important. From March 2005, the three
daily National Express services which pass the Airport will directly serve the site. This will comprise of a
daily service to London (via Preston and Birmingham), Leeds (via Preston and Bradford) and Coventry (via
Wolverhampton and Birmingham).


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This measure would involve further development of bus services to Blackpool Airport in line with the
growth in passenger numbers. It is suggested that as well as long distance coach services, there is a
need for the development of short and middle distance services. The X61 Stagecoach service and Line 7
Blackpool Transport service could both potentially serve the Airport. The X61 provides an hourly service to
Preston and Manchester and Line 7 runs every 20 minutes between Lytham, Blackpool and Cleveleys.

There may also be scope for improving linkages between the Airport and Squires Gate station in
developing a Surface Access Strategy for facilitating the growth of Blackpool Airport.

Fleetwood – Poulton Rail Station Bus Link
The town of Fleetwood is one of the largest towns in Lancashire not to have a rail station and the bus links
to Poulton station are poor. In March 2000, Lancashire County Council submitted a Rail Passenger
Partnership support funding application to the Shadow Strategic Rail Authority (SSRA) for a bus/rail link
between Poulton-le-Fylde and Fleetwood (via Thornton). The link would comprise two buses operating an
hourly service, which would connect with train arrivals and departures and be fully integrated with the
national rail fares system. It is understood that the scheme was not progressed as the prospective
operator withdrew their interest in the service.

The study team consider that the operation would most likely require two minibuses at a cost of
approximately £160,000. Operational costs are estimated to be in the region of £120,000 per annum.

Freight Quality Partnership (FQP)
FQP’s are intended to be an innovative approach to address freight issues in local areas, with the aim of
finding workable local solutions to local freight related problems. Most often local authority led-initiatives
(outlined in many local highways authorities' Local Transport Plans), involve a diverse range of
stakeholders - the local authority, freight transport trade associations, industry operators, environmental
groups and other interested parties - meeting to discuss how the efficient, economic, safe and sustainable
movement of freight within a defined geographical area might be improved.

The most successful FQP’s agree strict terms of reference and produce action plans with timetables for
outputs. This insures that those parties involved feel engaged in a proactive mechanism more likely to
achieve positive change. Outputs from productive FQP’s throughout England have included:
   Development of preferred lorry routeing strategy:
   HGV signage reviews in urban and extra-urban areas;
   Development and distribution of HGV driver route maps;
   Review of the provision of information boards at industrial estates;
   Assessment of the potential to increase out of hours deliveries; and
   Assessment of the potential for modal shift.

In the case of the study area, it might be possible to establish one or more FQPs along the route in the
interests of addressing local freight related issues. A trial FQP could be established to cover a specified
section of the A585, potentially where freight traffic related conflict has historically (or anecdotally) been
the greatest. The Port of Fleetwood and its associated freight related traffic, also lends itself ideally to the
development of a site-specific FQP. Thought could be given to either establishing an original Port of
Fleetwood FQP or to developing any existing Port/Local Authority liaison group.

Park and Ride at Junction 4 (serving Blackpool Town Centre, Hospital and Blackpool Airport)
Well designed and located Park and Ride schemes can persuade drivers to choose to leave their cars
behind for the last and most congested part of their journey. A number of the wider consultees interviewed
earlier in the study suggested that Park and Ride should be explored, particularly for improving access to
Blackpool Town Centre and the Victoria Hospital (where there are significant parking problems). Given the
recent and projected growth at Blackpool Airport, it is proposed that the town centre services would also
serve the Airport and would therefore have synergies with the enhanced bus services to Blackpool Airport
measure. This concept is shown in Figure 11.3.

A site at Junction 4 of the M55 would be ideal for providing access from the strategic road network to
Blackpool Town Centre, Victoria Hospital and Blackpool Airport. In 2001, a planning application was
submitted for a Snowdome and associated retail at this site. It is understood that the application was
refused as the development risked undermining retail business in Blackpool Town Centre. A proposal for
Park and Ride was included as part of the application and it was intended that the X61 would provide the
bus service to Blackpool Town Centre.

Costs for Park and Ride vary depending on the proposed site specification and the extent of facilities to be
provided. Further investigations would be required to establish whether land is available on a developed
site, or whether the site would be need to be built on greenfield land. An average cost of £5,000 per space
can be derived from sites implemented in during 2004 in Cringleford (Norfolk) and Sailsbury. If a 600
space car park is assumed, the capital cost of the scheme would be £ 3 milllion (2004 prices).

Quality Bus Corridors (QBC) on Lines 7 and 11
The aim of Quality Bus Corridors is to encourage more people to use buses by improving service reliability
and journey times; enhancing the bus stop environment; improving the quality of passenger information

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and providing better pedestrian access to bus stops. The improvements can also provide better facilities
for pedestrians and cyclists to make walking and cycling safer.

Quality Bus Corridors aim to address these needs by:
   Providing more shelters and improving the location, lighting, and ease of access to and from stops;
   Providing better, and more easily understandable, information at bus stops;
   Helping to keep buses running to time by providing a series of bus priority measures (including
    separate bus lanes and priority at traffic signals);
   Providing more and better crossing points for pedestrians to get to and from bus stops safely; and
   Providing enhancements to the general streetscene, such as better paving and street lighting, to
    improve safety and security.

Blackpool Council, in conjunction with Fylde and Wyre are currently developing a Quality Bus Corridor for
Line 14, which is a key north-south route between St Annes and Fleetwood. The route covers a total
length of 31 kilometres and is a high frequency service.

Quality Bus Corridors on Lines 7 and 11 between Lytham-Cleveleys (see Figure 11.2) are also key north-
south routes in the study area and are included as part of the package of common measures. Delivering a
solution to increasing traffic volumes on north-south routes in Blackpool is one of the study objectives and
QBC’s on these routes could assist in reducing delays for bus passengers.

The estimated cost for implementing the QBC’s on Lines 7 and 11 is £10.4 million for a combined route
length of 43km. The costs are derived from M60 JETTS (Junction Eighteen to Twelve Transport Study)
QBC’s, which are currently being progressed by GMPTE and FaberMaunsell. An average cost per
kilometre of £0.3 million is used for the sections of the route within the Blackpool Council area, which is
consistent with the M60 JETTS working average. In Fylde, the assumed cost per kilometre is 50% of this
at £0.15 million, which reflects the lower level of works required for a less congested network.

Real Time Passenger Information (RTPI)
RTPI is based on GPS technology and delivers bus service information directly to passengers and bus
operators. With the RTPI system the location of the bus on the route is transmitted via a satellite to a
central processor, which then calculates the distance and journey time to the next bus stop. This
information is then relayed to a display, which can be mounted in the bus shelter or on the bus stop itself.
These displays provide an up to the minute countdown to the actual time the next bus will arrive at the stop
and can display special messages to inform passengers of any delays or disruptions to the service. The
bus operator benefits from improved punctuality and run times and more effective scheduling and
management of the bus fleet using the same information displayed in the depot.

The RTPI system interacts with the Urban Traffic Control system using selective vehicle detection that can
be linked to the GPS data to identify individual services. This enables the traffic control system to take into
account whether a bus is running on, or behind schedule and to make appropriate decisions on the level of
priority to be provided to the bus by the downstream traffic signals.

The estimated capital cost for providing RTPI for Blackpool Transport fleet is approximately £700,000.
This is based on depot costs of £148,652 and an average cost per bus of £3,600.

School Travel Plans
Across the UK, the proportion of children travelling to school by car has almost doubled in the last 20
years. School related trips can comprise up to 20% of peak hour trips, contributing to the increased levels
of congestion on the road network. This in turn has raised concerns relating to the safety of routes to
school and fear of traffic accidents. School Travel Plans are documents which set out a package of
practical measures for reducing the number of car journeys to schools and for improving children’s safety
on the school journey. The aim is to encourage parents and children to choose walking, cycling and use of
public transport for their journey to school.

Schools can obtain funding for the development of School Travel Plans (STP’s) and measures such as
cycle shelters can be implemented as part of the plan. Other initiatives which can be included as part of
STP’s include Walking Buses, Car Sharing and Road Safety/Cycle Training.

The study brief requires that the potential impact of ‘soft’ measures is assessed in relation to the overall
level of travel demand. In a Department for Transport (DfT) review of travel change measures or soft
factors “Smarter Choices – Changing the Way We Travel” (July 2004), it is stated that on average School
Travel Plans cut school run traffic by between 8% and 15%.

Much has already been achieved in terms of developing School Travel Plans across the study area. The
latest Local Transport Plan Annual Progress Reports (2003/04) state that over 12 STP’s have now been
established in Blackpool and a further 41 have been approved across Lancashire. Inclusion of School
Travel Plans within the package of common measures represents the need for a continued and increased
emphasis in their development across the study area.



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Workplace Travel Plans
The DfT report ‘Smarter Choices – Changing the Way We Travel’ states that based on existing studies and
new evidence from the UK and abroad, successful Workplace Travel Plans can typically reduce car
commuting by between 10% and 30%.

Blackpool Council and Lancashire County Council have been working with employers in the study area on
the development of Travel Plans. This has involved some of the largest employers in the study area
including Blackpool Council (6,000 jobs), the Government Offices at Norcross (4,000 jobs) and British
Aerospace at Warton (over 10,000 jobs).

Blackpool Council have a travel plan in place and are currently looking at measures to implement as part
of the plan. The Local Transport Plan Annual Progress Report (2004) states that this is to centre on
proposals to provide discounted bus season tickets and upgrade cycle facilities at council buildings.
Blackpool Victoria Hospital has made significant progress in implementing their travel plan though
measures such as staff parking schemes. It should be noted that the travel plans at Blackpool Council and
Victoria Hospital could have linkages to the proposal to develop a Park and Ride scheme at Junction 4 on
the M55. Blackpool Council are keen to encourage the Government Offices at Norcross to look at
producing a travel plan, which if successful could contribute significantly towards the study objectives of
reducing congestion on the A585 (T) and on north-south routes in Blackpool.

Travel Plans are included within the common package of measures in recognition of their importance and
potential for contributing towards the study objectives. In order to improve the effectiveness of the Travel
Plans an increased emphasis needs to be placed on implementation of the plans in the next Local
Transport Plan period (2006-2011).

11.3. Development of Strategies
Following the identification of measures, the next stage was to assign measures to strategies, which would
form the basis of the study assessment. Six of seven strategies are based around the various highway
route options between the M55 and Norcross and were combined with a common package of measures,
many of which could be delivered through the Local Transport Plan process.

In addition to this, a Maximum Public Transport strategy was developed which comprised solely of public
transport schemes. This was established in order to ascertain the potential for public transport to address
the problems identified in the study brief.

The M55-Norcross strategies can therefore be defined as:
   Red;
   Yellow;
   Blue;
   Pink;
   Purple; and
   Green (lower cost option).

These common set of measures and the estimated capital costs are listed in Table 11.1.

Table 11.1 M55-Norcross Strategies
                                                                                                        Approx Capital Costs
  Scheme
                                                                                                             (£ million)
M55-Norcross Scheme                                                                                          see below
20 mph zone on Blackpool Promenade                                                                                    £1.6
Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1 (Starr Gate -                                                               £106.5
Fleetwood)
Complementary Measures                                                                                                £3.5
Completion of M55 – Heyhouses Link Road                                                                              £15.2
Enhanced Demand Responsive Public Transport                                                                           £0.5
Driver Rest Facilities/Lorry Park on the A585                                                                         £1.0
Enhanced Cycle Network                                                                                                £2.8
Enhanced Driver Information                                                                                           £3.7
Enhanced Express Bus Services to Blackpool Airport                                                                      -
Fleetwood – Poulton Rail Station Bus Link                                                                            £0.16
Freight Quality Partnership                                                                                             -
Quality Bus Corridors on Lines 7 and 11                                                                              £10.4
School Travel Plans                                                                                                     -
Workplace Travel Plans                                                                                                  -


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A decision was made in consultation with the Steering Group that these strategies should be balanced with
sufficient public transport and demand management measures. The most notable scheme was Phase 1 of
the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway, which is complementary to the M55-Norcross schemes, following
a north to south alignment. The scale of cost is high but considering that Blackpool Borough Council and
Lancashire County Council are actively promoting the scheme with the DfT it was considered wise to
incorporate it in all the strategies.

The component measures and approximate capital costs of the Maximum Public Transport Strategy are
shown in Table 11.2.

Table 11.2 Maximum Public Transport
                                                                                                         Approx Capital
  Scheme
                                                                                                         Costs (£ million)
Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1 (Starr Gate -                                                        £106.5
Fleetwood)
Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 2 (Lytham St Annes –                                                         £90
Blackpool)
Enhanced Demand Responsive Public Transport                                                                       £0.5
Enhanced Express Bus Services to Blackpool Airport                                                                   -
Enhanced Ticketing                                                                                                   -
Fleetwood – Poulton Rail Station Bus Link                                                                            -
Park and Ride at Junction 4 (serving Blackpool Town Centre,                                                       £3.0
Hospital and Blackpool Airport)
Quality Bus Corridors on Lines 7 and 11                                                                          £10.4
Real Time Passenger Information                                                                                   £0.7




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12 STRATEGY ASSESSMENT




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12. Strategy Assessment

12.1. Introduction
Seven strategies were developed as possible solutions to meet the objectives of the study. The next stage
was to evaluate all of the strategies against the overall aims of the study and wider Government objectives.
The results of this evaluation were used to determine the recommended plan to be taken forward by the
Steering Group.

As set out in Chapter 121, a list of schemes was identified and assembled in to either a common package
of measures (to be tested with the M55-Norcross strategies), or alternatively allocated to a separated
package entitled ‘Maximum Public Transport’, which did not include any highway measures. The schemes
were identified through the Local Transport Plans, the Steering Group, Wider Consultees, the study team
and the public.

This section of the report evaluates the strategies against the study objectives, the Government ‘s core five
national objectives and coarse assessments are also undertaken against the Blackpool and Lancashire
LTP objectives.

Only those measures which contribute towards the study objectives would be taken forward to the
recommended plan. At this stage it is appropriate to reiterate the study objectives, which were to identify
an agreed strategy that will deliver solutions to:
   Increasing volumes of traffic on the A585(T) between the M55 and Fleetwood;
   Congestion and environmental problems adversely affecting the local communities along the A585
    (T);
   Increasing traffic volumes and congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool and throughout the
    urban coastal strip;
   Growing demand for freight access to the Port of Fleetwood and all-user access to the Wyre
    Peninsula; and
   Provision of capacity and access to support regeneration of the Blackpool and Wyre urban areas.

12.2. Assessment Methodology
All of the strategy options have been tested against the Do Minimum network for 2016 and the medium
growth trip matrix has been used for assessment purposes. AM and PM Peak transportation models for
2004 and 2016 have been used and for purposes of the assessment an opening year of 2011 is assumed.
The timescale outlined in the recommended plan presents a more flexible time span for scheme
implementation.

The M55-Norcoss schemes have been assessed using the transport models (as described in Chapter 6)
and where possible other schemes have also been assessed within the models. However, the transport
models, due to their strategic nature, are inappropriate tools for assessing in detail some of the schemes
identified. As such, these schemes have been assessed on a coarse and qualitative basis, and if
appropriate, put forward for further work, which would be outside the remit of this particular study.

Schemes assessed in the transport models include:
   20 mph zone on Blackpool Promenade;
   Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phases 1 and 2;
   Fleetwood – Poulton Rail Link;
   M55-Norcross Options;
   Completion of M55- Heyhouses link road; and
   Quality Bus Corridors (Lines 7 and 11).

The costs for the above schemes have been included in the economic assessment. The economic
assessment does not include costs for those schemes which have only been assessed outside of the
model.

The assessments against the study and Government objectives makes use of quantitative and qualitative
indicators and a ‘ticks and crosses’ scoring system is used. This is consistent with the seven point scale
used in the Appraisal Summary Tables, where one tick denotes ‘Slightly Beneficial’ and three ticks would
be equivalent to ‘Largely Beneficial. The Appraisal Summary Tables are included in full in Appendix B.
The assessment against Government objectives have been undertaken in line with the Department for
Transport’s Transport Appraisal Guidance (TAG).

Tables 12.1 and 12.2 show the assessment criteria for the study and Government objectives respectively.




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Table 12.1 Assessment Criteria for Study Objectives
                        ObjectivesBJECTIVES                                                              Assessment Criteria
Relief of traffic volumes on the A585                                                   Output from the traffic model
Congestion and environmental problems affecting local                                   Journey time forecasts from the traffic model
communities on the A585                                                                 and some qualitative assessment
Congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool and the                                   Forecast changes in traffic flows on north-
Urban Costal Strip                                                                      south routes from the traffic model
                                                                                        Journey time forecasts between the M55
Growing Demand for freight access to the port                                           and Fleetwood from the traffic model and
                                                                                        some qualitative assessment
Capacity to support regeneration of the Blackpool and                                   Qualitative assessment in light of
Wyre urban areas                                                                        regeneration proposals


Table 12.2 Assessment Criteria for Government Objectives
  ObjectivesBJECTIVES                                                              Assessment Criteria
Environment                                  Mainly quantitative indicators, such as proximity of properties to the route,
                                             loss of hedges, woodland etc. Backed up by qualitative commentary.
Safety                                       Quantitative assessment including forecast change in the number of
                                             accidents (from accident model) and qualitative assessment in terms of
                                             security.
Economy                                      Transport Economic Efficiency assessment based on the Benefit to Cost
                                             Ratios (BCR’s), but assessment supplemented by qualitative assessment
                                             in terms of reliability and wider economic impacts.
Accessibility                                Mainly qualitative assessment for option values and access to the
                                             transport system and severance.
Integration                                  Mainly qualitative assessment, including the impact on interchange,
                                             consistency with land use policies and other Government policies.


12.3. Assessment of the Do Minimum (2016)
As specified in Chapter 121, a Do Minimum transport network was developed which incorporated the
following schemes:
    Improve Little Singleton Junction;
    Improve Windy Harbour Junction;
    Blackpool Town Centre Distributor Road; and
    Line 14 Quality Bus Corridor.

Appendix AC shows the change in traffic flows forecast between the 2004 base and the 2016 Do
Minimum. From this it is apparent that the most significant increases in traffic are forecast on east-west
routes. This is particularly so for long distance routes such as the M55 and A586 where peak hour flows
are forecast to increase by 19% and 26% respectively. This reflects the increase in trips to the study area
resulting from the forecast employment growth assumptions in the medium trip growth scenario.
Significant increases in traffic flows are also forecast around the Fleetwood – Thornton development
corridor and on approaches to Blackpool Airport.

Car journey times on the key section of the A585(T) between the M55 (Junction 3) and Fleetwood have
been extracted from the model in order to assess the Do Minimum for 2016. Table 132.3 compares the
2004 base journey times with the 2016 Do Minimum for the AM and PM Peak periods. This shows that the
schemes in the Do Minimum will not prevent journey times between the M55 and Fleetwood from
increasing by 2016, when compared with the 2004 base. Journey times are generally forecast to increase
by between 3% and 8%, but it can be expected that the delays will be significantly greater if the Do
Minimum schemes are not implemented.

The most important Do Minimum scheme for reducing congestion on the A585(T) is the upgrade to the
Little Singleton Junction. However, this will not provide a long term solution to congestion on the A585(T),
or deliver the improved access required to facilitate development of the Fleetwood to Thornton Strategic
Development Site.

Table 12.3 Journey Times Comparison (M55 Junction 3 - Fleetwood)
                          Base (2004)         Do Minimum (2016)                                                                 % Change
                      AM Peak    PM Peak    AM Peak        PM Peak
                                                                                                                       AM Peak              PM Peak
                       (mins)     (mins)     (mins)         (mins)
Northbound              26.0       23.8        27.9          25.6                                                         7.4%               7.5%

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Southbound                              30.8               25.6                31.8                  27.3                 3.3%              6.5%

12.4. Assessment against Study Objectives
This section assesses the performance of each strategy option is addressing the study objectives, which
are to deliver solutions to:

a) Increasing volumes of traffic on the A585(T) between the M55 and Fleetwood
The impact of each strategy option on traffic flows on the A585 (T) and surrounding highway network is
shown in Appendix AC. All the M55-Norcross options significantly reduce the traffic flows on the existing
A585(T), but the Yellow option is the most successful in this respect. On the section of the A585(T)
between the Windy Harbour and Singleton Crossroads junctions, traffic flows with the Yellow option are
forecast to decrease by around 65%, when compared with the Do Minimum in 2016. The Purple and
Green options all reduce traffic flows on this section by around 50% to 60%, whereas the Red and Blue
options are forecast to reduce flows by between 30% and 40%. The impact of the Red and Blue options is
less as their alignments run further away from the existing A585(T). The Pink option follows the A585(T)
alignment between Windy Harbour and Singleton Crossroads.

Appendix AC shows that the Maximum Public Transport option has only a minor impact on traffic flows on
the road network.

b) Congestion and environmental problems adversely affecting local communities on the A585(T)
In order to assess the impact of the strategy options on congestion on the A585(T), journey times have
been output between the M55 (Junction 3) and Fleetwood. Table 12.4 presents the forecast AM journey
times in 2016 for Do Minimum and the respective strategy options in 2016. The options are then ranked in
terms of their impact on journey time reduction, where 1 denotes the greatest impact.

It is apparent that the Red option results in the most improved journey time between the M55 and
Fleetwood. The journey times compared with the Do Minimum in 2016 are forecast to decrease by 35%
and 40% for the northbound and southbound directions respectively. Whilst the Red option provides a less
direct route compared with some alternatives, the time savings are greater as the scheme is grade
separated and less subject to junction delays.

Yellow is the second most effective option at reducing congestion between the M55 and Fleetwood, as
journey times are also forecast to decrease by over 30% in both directions. Green is the least effective of
the M55-Norcross options, but is still forecast to reduce journey times along the route by between 18% and
22% in the AM Peak.

Journey time reductions will also reduction in improved reliability, which provides an additional benefit in
relation to congestion.

Table 12.4 Strategy Options: AM Peak Journey Times Comparison (M55 Junction 3 - Fleetwood)
                             Strategy 2016        % Change from Do Min
                                                                             Ranking
       Option             North         South
                                                   North       South       (JT Savings)
                         (mins)         (mins)
Do Minimum                 27.9          31.8        -           -               -
Red                                      18.1                   19.0                -35.0%                -40.2%                       1
Blue                                     21.9                   20.9                -21.4%                -34.4%                       5
Yellow                                   19.4                   19.9                -30.6%                -37.5%                       2
Pink                                     20.3                   20.7                -27.1%                -34.8%                       4
Purple                                   19.6                   20.1                -29.7%                -36.9%                       3
Green                                    22.7                   24.7                -18.5%                -22.2%                       6
Maximum Public
                                         24.8                   31.8                 -3.1%                   0%                        7
Transport

In terms of the impact on local communities, the alignments of the Red, Yellow and Blue options are
located furthest from local communities on the A585(T). These options would be particularly beneficial for
the community around Singleton Crossroads. The Purple and Green options would also improve the
immediate local environment around Singleton Crossroads, but the routes run between the village of
Singleton and the A585(T). This has the potential to adversely impact on the local community as a result
of the severance generated. The Pink option largely following the existing alignment of the A585(T) and as
such would provide less benefit still for communities on the route.

Whilst the Red option would relieve traffic from communities on the A585(T), the option could impact
adversely on communities such as Staining, Normoss and Carleton. The Yellow option would have a
lower impact on local communities as the route cuts through an area of open countryside, but this
adversely impacts on landscape. The environmental impacts of the Blue route are less as the alignment
runs parallel to the rail line, which with the exception of Weeton village, is away from local communities.


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c)   Increasing traffic volumes and congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool and throughout
     the Urban Costal Strip
The Red option is the most successful in reducing traffic volumes on north-south routes as it runs closest
to the urban area of Blackpool. Appendix AC shows that traffic is forecast to decrease by approximately
20% on key north-south routes such as the A587 and A584 Promenade, when compared with the Do
Minimum in 2016. The Blue option also impacts on traffic flows on north-south routes as flows on the
A587 and the A584 Promenade are forecast to decrease in the region of 5%-10%. The traffic impact of
the Yellow, Pink, Purple and Green options is less as flows are typically forecast to decrease in the region
of 2%-5% on the A587 and A584.

d) Growing demand for freight access to the port and all user access to the Wyre Peninsula
All the M55-Norcross options would be effective in providing improved access to the Port of Fleetwood and
across to the Wyre peninsula. As shown in Table 12.4, the Red and Yellow options would be the most
effective at reducing journey times between the M55 and Fleetwood. However, the Purple, Pink, Blue and
Green options are also effective at reducing congestion on the A585(T).

e)    Provision of capacity and access to support regeneration of the Blackpool and Wyre urban
      areas
The Red option provides the highest volume of additional capacity of the M55-Norcross options as it is the
only grade separated route option. This option would also be the most effective in facilitating regeneration
proposals in Blackpool as the scheme also serves as an outer ring road. The Blue option would also
facilitate regeneration in Blackpool, albeit to a lesser extent. In terms of supporting regeneration of the
Wyre urban area, as with access to the Port, the Red and Yellow options would be the most effective.

The Maximum Public Transport option includes the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway Phase 2 and Park
and Ride schemes, which could facilitate the wider regeneration objectives in Blackpool.

12.5. Government Objectives
This section evaluates the strategy options against the Government’s core five objectives of Environment,
Safety, Economy, Accessibility and Integration. Risk is added as an additional objective, which reflects the
increasing emphasis on reducing the level of risk, following repeated cost escalations in the construction of
transport schemes. These assessments have been undertaken in line with the Department for Transport’s
Transport Appraisal Guidance (TAG).

The Appraisal Summary Tables for each of the options are included in Appendix B.

Environment

The M55-Norcross route options are overlaid against the environmental features in Figure 12.1.

Noise
For the purposes of this study, noise has been assessed in terms of the number of properties located
within 50 metre of the new highway route option compared with the Do Minimum. This shows that all of
the options result in a net reduction in the number of properties within this category. This ranges from a
net reduction of 155 properties with the Red option through to 171 properties with the Blue option. Further
work on noise impacts will be required at the scheme development stage.

Local Air Quality/Greenhouse Gases
All full environmental assessment in accordance forwith the DfT Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) would
require the development of an environmental model to forecast the change in NO 2 and PM10 . However,
the TAG guidance does state that beyond 200 metres, the contribution of vehicle emissions from the road
centre to local pollution levels is not significant. As with the noise assessment, all of the options result in a
net reduction in the number of properties within 200 metres of the route. This ranges from a net reduction
of 268 properties with the Red option through to 559 properties with the Blue option. A fuller
environmental assessment would need to be undertaken at the scheme development stage.

Landscape
The Red and Pink options have the most significantly adverse impacts on landscape. The only option
which passes through Greenbelt land is the Red route (between Staining and Carleton). This route also
runs immediately adjacent to Marton Mere Nature Reserve.

The Pink route, which mostly runs parallel to the existing A585 (T), would result in the loss of over 6000
metres of hedges and over 3800 metres of woodland. The Blue, Yellow, Purple and Green options all
pass through Grade 2 (Very Good) and Grade 3 (Good) Agricultural Land, but do not cross any areas of
Greenbelt land. All of these routes have implications in terms of hedges and trees, but the impacts are not
as significant as the Pink option.

Townscape
The alignment of the Red option runs through a predominantly built up area, which has implications for
Townscape and visual intrusion. The construction cost estimates have assumed that the route would be
built in cutting in order to mitigate the impacts. The reduction in traffic flows on north-south routes could (to
some extent) offset the negative impacts. Other options primarily run through rural areas to the south of
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Skippool. However, the section of route between Skippool and Norcross (common to all these options)
involves upgrading the current A585(T) alignment, which have an impact on townscape.




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Heritage of Historic Resources
The environmental features (Figure 12.1) shows the location of listed buildings in the M55-Norcross
Corridor. From this it is apparent that none of the route options would require acquisition of any listed
buildings. The Red, Blue, Yellow, Purple and Green options do pass to within around 500 metres of 2 to 3
listed buildings. The Pink option does not pass within close proximity to any listed buildings. The study
team obtained a list of the Scheduled Ancient Monuments in Lancashire and a review of this showed that
none of the locations are in the M55-Norcross Corridor.

Biodiversity
Red is the only option where the biodiversity impacts are significantly adverse. The alignment of the route
runs immediately adjacent to Marton Mere Nature Reserve, which is considered to be of particularly high
value in terms of biodiversity. It is possible that the impacts could be mitigated to some extent by ensuring
best practice design and construction. The impact for the other options is considered to be only slightly
adverse as the routes do not pass through any designated sites. However, it is recognised that small
habitat loss may result from the construction of new infrastructure.

Water Environment
In terms of water environment, the impact of the Red option is again considered to be significantly adverse
as a result of the close proximity to Marton Mere. Construction of new infrastructure has the potential to
impact on surface or groundwater resources. The environmental features plan (Figure 12.1) also shows
that the Blue option follows the course of a tidal floodplain, which has potential to impact adversely on the
water environment. The impact of the other options is considered to be slightly adverse.

Physical Fitness
The new cycling/walking routes and travel plans included in the package of common measures would
facilitate improved physical fitness by improving safety for vulnerable road users. The public transport
measures will also encourage more walking. The impact of on physical fitness is not considered to be
significantly different between the strategy options.

Journey Ambiance
This can be affected by traveller care, travellers’ views and traveller stress. For road users all options
include measures which will improve driver information and rest facilities for HGV drivers. The public
transport measures included in each option will improve the ride quality of the journeys and the general
ambience of the passenger environment through the provision of new vehicles. Traveller stress can be
reduced affected by frustration, fear of potential accidents and route uncertainty. All of the options will
lessen frustration by reducing congestion, lower the rate of accident risk and improve route clarity,
particularly between the M55 and Fleetwood.

Summary

Table 12.5 provides a summary assessment of the strategy options against the Government’s
environmental sub-objectives.

Table 12.5 Assessment Against Environmental Sub-Objectives
                                                                                          Strategy Option
               Sub-objective                                                                                                           Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink       Purple        Green           Public
                                                                                                                                       Transport
Noise                                                                                                                            
Local Air Quality /Greenhouse
Gases
                                                                                                                                 
Landscape                                                                                                                        -
Townscape                                                                                                                            
Heritage of Historic Resources                           -            -             -            -            -             -                -
Biodiversity                                                                                                                         -
Water Environment                                                              -            -            -             -                -
Physical Fitness                                                                                                                      
Journey Ambiance                                                                                                                

Safety

Accidents
A model has been developed in accordance with COBA guidance (as set out in DMRB volume 13) to
evaluate the impact of the strategy options on accidents in the study area.

Table 12.6 presents the percentage change in the number of accidents (2011-2040) forecast in the study
area for each option compared with the Do Minimum and the Present Value of Benefits (PVB) in the 30
year period from 2011 to 2040. This shows that all the strategy options are forecast to reduce accidents in
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the study area by 3% or more, resulting in benefits in excess of £30 million over a 30 year period. The
Red option has the highest savings as accidents in the study area are forecast to decrease by 5.3%,
resulting in a saving of £54 million (PVB).

The accident savings on the M55-Norcross options are a result of traffic transferring to higher standard
links, which have a lower accident rates. The accident savings forecast to result from the Maximum Public
Transport option are a result of a reduction in the number of vehicle kilometres on the network following
mode transfer to public transport.

Table 12.6 Summary of Accident Benefits
                                                                                            Strategy Option
               Sub-objective                                                                                                                Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink         Purple         Green             Public
                                                                                                                                            Transport
% Change in Accidents in the Study
                                    -5.3% -4.0% -4.2% -3.2%                                                   -3.7%          -4.8%           -0.5%
Area from Do Minimum
Economic Saving PVB £m
                                   £53.6m £38.6m £42.5m £34.7m                                               £37.8m         £38.7m           £5.7m
(30 years, 2011-2040)

Security
The public transport measures, particularly Blackpool-Fleetwood Tramway Phases 1 and 2, will deliver
improved security for public transport passengers through associated measures such as enhanced lighting
and CCTV systems. TAG (Transport Appraisal Guidance) states that road users are more vulnerable to
crime when vehicles are travelling at lower speeds, or where they are required to stop their vehicles. All of
the M55-Norcross options will improve security for road users by increasing the average speed at which
vehicles are travelling. In addition, the driver rest facilities/lorry park on the A585, included as one of the
common measures, would improve security for HGV drivers. The additional schemes included within the
Maximum Public Transport option, particularly Phase 2 of the Tramway will provide additional benefits in
terms of security.

Summary
Table 12.7 provides a summary assessment of the strategy options against the Governments safety sub-
objectives.

Table 12.7 Assessment Against Safety Sub-Objectives
                                                                                          Strategy Option
                  Objective                                                                                                            Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink       Purple        Green           Public
                                                                                                                                       Transport
Accidents                                                                                                                        
Security                                                                                                                              

Economy

Transport Economic Efficiency
An economic model has been developed in order to derive the Present Value of Costs (PVC), Present
Value of Benefits (PVB) and the Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) for each of the strategy options.

The PVC’s presented are based on the discounted scheme capital cost estimates. The PVB’s are derived
from outputs from the transport model and have been calculated in accordance with COBA guidance for
the economic evaluation of transport schemes.

It is therefore evident from Table 12.8 that the Blue, Red and Yellow strategy options perform best in terms
of the Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR). Whilst the Red option delivers the highest benefits, the higher cost of
the scheme results in the overall BCR being lower than the Blue and Yellow options. All of the M55-
Norcross options have a BCR of at least 1 – the Green option has the lowest BCR at 1.8.

It should be noted that the BCR’s of the M55-Norcoross schemes are higher if assessed on their own,
rather that as part of a strategy option.

The Maximum Public Transport option results in the lowest BCR of 0.5.




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Table 12.8 Summary Economic Assessment
                          Present Value                                     Present Value                  Benefit to Cost
      Strategy Option
                          of Costs (£m)                                    of Benefits (£m)                 Ratio (BCR)
Red                                                   237.2                        729.5                             3.1
Blue                                                  172.3                        617.5                             3.6
Yellow                                                166.2                        507.7                             3.1
Pink                                                  179.8                        452.8                             2.5
Purple                                                191.0                        497.7                             2.6
Green                                                 158.8                        280.8                             1.8
Maximum Public Transport                              149.2                         70.3                             0.5

Reliability
All of the M55-Norcross options will relieve key bottlenecks on the A585(T) and reduce the number of
accidents, thereby delivering significant improvements in journey time reliability on the highway network.
Improved reliability will be of particular value for current port-related HGV traffic, and facilitate growth of the
port. The Red option and to a lesser extent the Blue option would provide the additional benefit of
improving reliability on north-south routes in Blackpool.

Quality Bus Corridors and the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1 will assist in improving reliability
for public transport users. The Maximum Public Transport option would provide additional benefits in
terms of public transport reliability through the Blackpool-Fleetwood Tramway Phase 2, Park and Ride and
Real Time Passenger Information.

Wider Economic Impacts
Congestion on the A585(T) is considered to be a constraint to both attracting employers to the urban area
of Wyre and enabling residents of the area to access opportunities outside the area. In particular, an
improved route between the M55 and Fleetwood would facilitate the development of the Port and the
Fleetwood – Thornton corridor. North West Regional Planning Guidance (RPG13), now the Regional
Spatial Strategy (RSS) stresses the importance of the Port and the Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (JLSP)
for 2001-2016 identifies the site at Fleetwood (Docks – North East Thornton) as a ‘Strategic Location for
Development’ under Policy 3. The JSLP also highlights the need for improved links between the motorway
and the site.

All of the M55-Norcross strategy options would generate wider economic impacts by improving access to
the Wyre urban area and areas of north Blackpool. However, the Red option would provide the additional
benefit of significantly reducing congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool, which would complement
the Blackpool Masterplan proposals.

All options include Phase 1 of the Blackpool-Fleetwood Tramway, which is particularly important in terms
of facilitating the success of the Blackpool Masterplan. and regeneration proposals for the urban area of
Wyre.
As part of the Annex E submission to the Department for Transport (DfT), an Economic Impact Report
(EIR) was produced for Phase 1, in order the ascertain the wider economic impacts of the scheme. This
stresses that the tram is an integral part of the Blackpool image, on a par with Blackpool Tower and the
Pleasure Beach. Clearly, closure of the Tramway, which for modelling purposes is assumed after 2016 in
the Do Minimum, would be a major loss.

The EIR forecasts that a high estimate of 650 jobs and a low estimate of 410 jobs would be expected to be
safeguarded or created under Phase 1, compared with the tramway closed in the Do Minimum. It is
anticipated that there would be further benefits through:
    The tramway acting as an attraction to the area;                                                                                            Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
    Safeguarding against an image of deterioration if the Tramway closed;
    The upgraded tramway forming part of an improved modern image; and
    Adding confidence to investment decisions,

The EIR stresses the importance of the scheme in securing the wider regeneration of Blackpool. This
satates that:

“while the Tramway alone will not significantly impact on perceptions to attract investment, a modern
Tramway in combination with other regeneration proposals will assist in improving the image of Blackpool”.

Phase 1 of the tramway also serves some of the most deprived wards in the study area. Figure 2
(contained within Appendix A) shows the Index of Multiple Deprivation and demonstrates that a high
proportion of wards on the route are within the bottom 20% in terms of deprivation.


Summary
Table 12.9 provides a summary assessment of the strategy options against the Governments economic
sub-objectives.
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Table 12.9 Assessment Against Economic Sub-Objectives
                                                                                          Strategy Option
               Sub-objective                                                                                                           Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink       Purple        Green           Public
                                                                                                                                       Transport
Transport Economic Efficiency                                                                                                  
Reliability                                                                                                                     
Wider Economic Impacts                                                                                                         

Accessibility

Options Values
The DfT Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) states that it is ‘particularly important to consider option
values if the strategies or plans include measures which will substantially change the availability of
transport services within the study area’. Examples cited are the opening or closure of a rail service, or the
introduction or withdrawal of weekend buses serving a particular rural area. Given this, it is considered
that the impact on options value will be the same for the M55-Norcross options. However, some of the
common measures included options, such as enhanced Demand Responsive Transport and the provision
of driver rest facilities/lorry parks, would improve option values.

Severance
Severance has been assessed in terms of whether people wishing to make pedestrian movements will be
able to do so, but also in terms of if people are likely to be dissuaded from making journeys on foot.

The Red option is considered to have the greatest impact in terms of severance as the majority of the
alignment passes through a built-up area with relatively high levels of pedestrian movement. The scheme
is also the only option under consideration which is grade separated, with the route being constructed in-
cutting. The scheme would result in the severance of 8 footways, which could hamper east-west
movement for pedestrians, even with retention of links through the provision of bridges. These impacts
would be offset to some extent reduced levels of severance on north-south routes in Blackpool and the
A585(T).

The Blue option has the least impact as the alignment follows an existing rail corridor and does not pass
within close proximity of local communities. The reduction in traffic around the Singleton Crossroads
junction is likely to result in an overall reduction in the level of severance. The Pink and Purple options
both pass between the village of Singleton and Singleton Crossroads and therefore have the potential to
impact adversely on the level of severance for the local community in the area. The Yellow option passes
further away from the local communities (to the south of Singleton village) and as such the impact on
severance would be less.

Cycling routes and 20 mph zone on Blackpool Promenade (included in the package of common measures)
would assist in reducing the level of severance across the study area.

Access to the Transport System
The most important determinant of access to the transport system is the availability of a vehicle for private
use. In areas of low car ownership, such as parts of Blackpool, access to the public transport system is of
crucial importance. The Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1 and improvements to bus services
included in the package of common measures can all be expected to enhance the access to the transport
system under all strategy options. The Maximum Public Transport Strategy includes measures such as
Real Time Passenger Information and Enhanced Ticketing, which would deliver further improvements.

Summary
Table 12.10 provides a summary assessment of the strategy options against the Governments
accessibility sub-objectives.

Table 12.10 Assessment Against Accessibility Sub-Objectives
                                                                                          Strategy Option
               Sub-objective                                                                                                           Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink       Purple        Green           Public
                                                                                                                                       Transport
Option Values                                                                                                                         
Severance                                                                        -                                                    
Access to the Transport System                                                                                                        



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Integration

Transport Interchange
The DfT Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) states that this is to be assessed in terms of passenger
interchange and freight interchange. The M55-Norcross options will all deliver equal improvements to
passenger interchange through measures such as the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1, Quality
Bus Corridors and enhanced bus services to Blackpool Airport. These measures will improve key aspects
of interchange such as the quality of the passenger waiting environment, level of facilities and information.
The Maximum Public Transport option would deliver additional benefits from Real Time Passenger
Information and a link to Blackpool North rail station (incorporated in Phase 2 of the Blackpool to
Fleetwood Tramway).

In terms of freight interchange, the M55-Norcross options include the provision of driver rest facilities/lorry
park on the A585(T) for access to the Port of Fleetwood. This would deliver improvements to key
indicators of interchange quality, such as the level of facilities available for freight users and security.

Land Use Policy
This is concerned with the extent to which the strategy options are integrated with land use proposals and
policies and wider proposals and policies concerning transport. The assessment is made in the context of
national, regional, strategic and detailed local planning policies.

All of the strategy options complement the Government’s White Paper ‘The Future of Transport: A Network
for 2030’. The strategy options include measures which will help deliver the national objectives of
delivering a more reliable freer flowing road network, more reliable, flexible and convenient bus services
and enabling ports and airports to provide improved international and domestic links.

There is also consistency with the strategy options and Regional Planning Guidance for the North West
(RPG 13), now the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS). This states that current congestion problems in the
area are identified as being ‘regionally significant’. The guidance also stresses the importance of the Port
of Fleetwood and Blackpool as a tourist destination.

The Joint Lancashire Structure Plan (JLSP) sets the overarching land use policy for the area for the period
2001-2016. Under Policy 8 (Strategic Road Network and Proposed Improvements), the JLSP states that
current congestion is considered to be having a ‘significant impact on the local economy, restricting access
to the regionally significant Port of Fleetwood and holding back the regeneration of Blackpool’. Proposed
developments at strategic sites in the Fleetwood – Thornton corridor are also considered to require
improved links to the motorway network. All of the M55-Norcross options would fit within the context of
addressing the above issues.

The M55-Norcross options would also complement the Local Plans for Fylde and Wyre, which are broadly
consistent with the JLSP. However, the Red option does not align well with the Blackpool Local Plan,
which states that the Red route is no longer included in the Plan and alternative solutions need to be
sought to congestion on north-south routes. In relation to the Blue option, the requirement for a new
motorway junction with the M55 could raise issues relating to new development pressures on land around
the junction.

A coarse assessment of how the strategy options complement the Blackpool and Lancashire Local
Transport Plan objectives has been undertaken and this is included in Appendix CD.

Other Government Policies
The impact of transport proposals on other Government policies is considered in order to assess the affect
on overall policy integration within Government. For the M55-Norcross options common component
measures such as enhanced Demand Responsive Transport, School Travel Plans and Workplace Travel
Plans can be seen to be consistent with access to education and work policies. For the Maximum Public
Transport strategy option, enhanced Demand Responsive Transport and Park and Ride to Blackpool
Victoria Hospital would be consistent with access to work and healthcare policies.

Summary
Table 12.11 provides a summary assessment of the strategy options against the Governments Integration
sub-objectives.




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Table 12.11 Assessment Against Integration Sub-Objectives
                                                                                          Strategy Option
               Sub-objective                                                                                                           Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink       Purple        Green           Public
                                                                                                                                       Transport
Transport Interchange                                                                                                                  
Land Use Policy                                                                                                             
Other Government Policies                                                                                                              




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Risk

Financial/Construction
The Red option is considered to have a much higher level of financial/construction risk relative to the other
options. The scheme would mostly mainly be constructed in-cutting in order to reduce the environmental
impacts and would be below sea level in sections, which requires a pump drainage system. The alignment
of the route, which runs through an urban area, Greenbelt and a nature reserve also represents a greater
challenge in engineering terms, thereby increasing the level of risk attached to the costs.

The Blue route also has a degree of financial/construction risk as the alignment follows the course of a
floodplain throughout, and the scheme would requires bridging of the rail line and a new junction with the
M55. In addition, Tthe weaving distance between the merge and diverge points between Junction 4 and
the new junction would be approximately 1700 metres to 1800 metres. This is under the minimum 2000
metre standard as set out in the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (Volume 6 Section 2) and
construction of the junction would therefore require a departure from standards.

The Yellow, Pink Purple and Green options are all considered to be relatively low risk schemes in terms of
potential cost escalations resulting from construction difficulties. The review environmental features
showed that the Pink option crosses an Ethylene pipeline and this has been incorporated in the cost
estimate for the scheme.

All of the M55-Norcross scheme costs incorporate an optimism bias allowance of 45%, which is the
standard Department for Transport rate for major highway schemes. The level of risk attached to Phase 1
of the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway is considered to be much less than other LRT schemes as the
route alignment is already in place. As such, the scheme costs incorporate a lower level of optimism bias
of 44%, as opposed to the standard rate of 57% for LRT schemes. For Phase 2 (included in the Maximum
Public Transport strategy) the costs include 57% optimism bias as the scheme requires a Transport and
Works Act for the alignment, which increases the level of risk.




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Acceptability
The acceptability of a scheme can be seen in relation to the public and stakeholders. A public consultation
was carried out in the early 1990’s on the Red and Yellow routes and showed a strong preference for the
Yellow route. The Red route was unpopular owing to the fact that the alignment runs within close proximity
to local communities, whereas the Yellow route was considered to be ‘out of the way’. A public
consultation has not been undertaken for the other options, but it is likely that the Pink option would be
unpopular with the public as the majority of the alignment runs parallel to the existing route. This would
have the potential to worsen the local environment for those adversely affected by the A585(T) at present.
The Purple and Green options may be unpopular with some sections of the local community as the route
severs the area between Singleton village and Singleton Crossroads.

The Blue route is generally some distance from local communities and as such is likely to be more popular
with the public, but the requirement for a new junction with the motorway network does not fit well with
Highways Agency policy. This is expressed in the document ‘Control of Ddevelopment affecting trunk
roads and agreements with developers under section 278 of the Highways Act 1980’ (DTLR, 2001). The
document states that:

“For the future, and in keeping with the objectives of an integrated transport policy, the Agency will adopt a
graduated policy on the provision of new connections to trunk roads or the intensified use of existing ones.
Access will be most severely restricted in the case of motorways and high standard routes of the greatest
strategic importance”.

In view of the concerns relating to an additional motorway junction, the option of closing the existing
Junction 3 was considered, but not assessed in detail as the impact in terms of access to/from Kirkham
would not be acceptable.

Environmental organisations are key stakeholders in the planning and development of schemes. The
environmental sensitivities discussed in relation to the Red option would result in strong objections from
such groups, should the scheme be progressed. The other options are less sensitive in environmental
terms, but could still be opposed on environmental grounds.

Summary
Table 12.12 provides a summary assessment of risk of each strategy option in terms of financial/
construction risk and risk in terms of acceptability.




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Table 12.12 Assessment of Risk
                                                                                          Strategy Option
                   Category                                                                                                            Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink       Purple        Green           Public
                                                                                                                                       Transport
                                                        High       Medium Low    Low    Low    Low
                                                                                                     Medium Risk
Financial/Construction                                  Risk        Risk  Risk   Risk   Risk   Risk
                                                        High        High Medium Medium Medium Medium
                                                                                                      Low Risk
Acceptability                                           Risk        Risk  Risk   Risk   Risk   Risk

12.6. Exclusion Analysis
A number of the measures identified in the strategy options have been assessed in isolation in order to
ascertain their contribution to the study objectives and also enable the identification of a package of
measures which provides good value for money.

Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1
Phase 1 of the Tramway involves the comprehensive upgrading of infrastructure, vehicles, systems and
operation on the existing route between Fleetwood and Starr Gate. The scheme is to play a key role in
facilitating wider regeneration of Blackpool as tourist destination, as envisaged in the Blackpool
Masterplan. In July 2004, the Government announced that a £170 million bid for the scheme bid had not
been successful. Blackpool Council and Lancashire County Council are currently liasing with the
Department for Transport and are preparing a revised bid. Based on the most recent information relating
to the bid a cost of £106.5 million (2004 prices) has been assumed, which includes 44% for optimism bias.

The economic assessment of the scheme shows a Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) of 0.9, which includes the
44% for optimism bias in the costs. The study team believe that this level of optimism bias is high given
that the scheme is restricted to the existing alignment and does not require Transport and Works Act
powers.

The assessment was undertaken on the basis of the following:
   30 year assessment period (2011-2040);                                                                                                              Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
   The scheme opens in 2011, construction starts in 2009;
   The existing system closes in 2016 under the Do Minimum;
   Base year AM and PM data provided by Blackpool Transport for weekdays in April 2004;
   Annualisation factor derived from base AM and PM peak data and the annual passenger numbers
    quoted in the Blackpool Local Transport Plan Annual Progress Report (APR) 2004;
   Operating costs for Phase 1 are assumed to be cost neutral relative to the Do Minimum, given the
    running and depreciation costs of replacement buses; and
   The new system is not modelled as a new mode, but the relative ‘attractiveness’ of tram has been
    increased relative to the existing system.


The assessment undertaken for this study has assumedption that the current tramwaysystem will close in
the Do Minimum scenario after 2016. This is in recognisesition of the condition of the existing
infrastructure and the continued maintenance of the system is not considered to be sustainable.fact that
indefinite continuation of the system is neither viable or realistic. The economic assessment of the scheme
shows a Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) of 0.9, which includes 44% for optimism bias in the costs.

It should be recognised that the limitations resulting from of the strategic nature of the public transport
model used in this study means that many of the wider bebenefits will not be captured. The models
developed for the study are based on weekday AM and PM Peak periods, but given the tramways role as
a tourist attraction, much of the benefits relate to the weekend and off peak periods during the week. A
more detailed assessment of the revised bid is currently being undertaken by consultants Steer Davis
Gleave.

Although the assessment carried out as part of this study gives a benefit to cost ratio of less than 1, the
case for the tramway rests much more in terms of the wider regeneration benefits by facilitating the
success of the Blackpool Masterplan area and regeneration proposals for the urban area of Wyre. The
tramway is a major part of the Blackpool image
 and a key facet of the Masterplan proposals.

  The wider impacts are expressed in the Economic Impact Report (EIR), which was carried out in 2003 to
support the Annex E bid. The EIR concludes that the wider economic and social impacts arising from
Phase 1 are significant and the greatest benefits are expected in the tourism sector where employment is
forecast to rise. A high estimate forecasts 650 jobs, and a low estimate of 410 jobs, would be expected to
be safeguarded or created under Phase 1, compared with the tramway closed in the Do Minimum. It is
anticipated that there would be further benefits through the tramway attracting tourists into the area,
improving the overall image of Blackpool and adding confidence to investment decisions.
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Currently, the tramway continues to play a major role in terms of Blackpool’s image and performs a key
function in maintaining the capacity of the resort to handle visitors. It is also worth noting that a high
proportion of wards served by the tramway in Blackpool and the urban area of Wyre fall within the most
deprived category in the Index of Multiple Deprivation. This is shown in Figure 2, which is contained within
Appendix B.
A more detailed assessment of the revised bid is currently being undertaken by Steer Davis Gleave.

The scheme is to be taken forward to the recommended plan in recognition of the pivotal role of an
upgraded tramway in meeting the study objective of providing capacity and access to support regeneration
of the Blackpool and Wyre urban areas.
 facilitating the regeneration of Blackpool.




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Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 2
Phase 2 would build upon the conversion of the existing Tramway to modern LRT standards (Phase 1) and
comprises of an extension to St Annes and Lytham and a link to Blackpool North Station. The scheme
would use the existing South Fylde line alignment and involve further works on the Phase 1 Tramway
alignment. The northern section of the existing rail line would be curtailed between Pleasure Beach and
Blackpool South. The scheme includes terminating the existing rail service on the South Fylde line at St
Annes, but doubling the existing frequency of the service between Preston and St Annes.

For the purposes of assessment within this study, a broad working cost estimate of £90 million (2004
prices) has been used, but it should be noted that costs for the scheme are to be revised by Steer Davis
Gleave. The economic assessment undertaken showed a Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) of 0.8.

Whilst recognising that Phase 2 could significantly improve public transport connectivity between the
northern and southern areas of the Fylde, it is considered that the scheme is not key to addressing
problems in the M55-Norcross Corridor. As such, the scheme is not included in the recommended plan.




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Completion of M55 – Heyhouses lLink rRoad
This completion of this scheme would provide a direct link between the M55 and St Annes. The
assessment showed that the link represents good value for money in economic terms as the scheme has a
Benefit to Cost Ratio of 4.5. However, the scheme is not successful in contributing to the study objectives
of addressing congestion problems on the A585(T) and north-south routes in Blackpool, which is
demonstrated by the coarse assessment (Appendix DC). The impact of the scheme in terms of traffic
flows on the surrounding road network is presented in Appendix AC. This shows that whilst the scheme
relieves key links between St Annes and Blackpool, it has little impact on links to the north of the M55.

The current position of Lancashire County Council (LCC) is that for the scheme to be progressed at least
50% of the funding should be made available from a potential housing development. The planning
application has been referred to the Secretary of State and a decision is still awaited. Given the
assessment above, although the scheme represents good value for money in general economic terms,
within the terms of the objectives of this study it is considered that the scheme should not be considered a
priority and that the current position of Lancashire County Council should be left unchanged. As such, the
scheme has not been taken forward in to the recommended plan.

M55-Norcross Options
In order to ascertain the individual impact of the M55-Norcross options, model tests were carried out for
the Blue and Yellow routes without any supporting strategy. Table 12.13 shows that the Benefit to Cost
Ratios (BCR’s) for the Yellow and Blue routes are 4.8 and 5.0 respectively, compared with 3.1 and 3.6
under the full strategy option.

Table 12.13 Economic Summary: M55-Norcross Schemes (no supporting strategy)
                            Present Value    Present Value     Benefit to Cost
          Scheme
                            of Costs (£m)   of Benefits (£m)    Ratio (BCR)
Yellow Route (no strategy)                                72.1                         347.5                            4.8
Blue Route (no strategy)                                  85.3                         425.0                            5.0

Whilst the individual schemes deliver higher BCR’s, it is considered that a supporting package of
measures is critical in ensuring that a transport network is developed in a way which both facilitates
regeneration proposals and delivers sustainable travel choice.

Park and Ride at Junction 4
In 2001 a Park and Ride scheme to Blackpool Town Centre was proposed at Junction 4 as part of a
planning application for a Snowdome and associated retail development. The study consultation process
showed strong support for developing a Park and Ride scheme from the M55 to serve destinations such as
Blackpool Town Centre, the Airport and Blackpool Victoria Hospital. It is possible that such a scheme
could be linked with the existing X61 (Manchester-Preston-Blackpool) express bus service.

In order to establish the potential market for Park and Ride, a select link analysis of the highway model
was undertaken. This showed that in the AM Peak hour, approximately 400 of the 2700 cars (15%) pass
through the site and had a destination close to either Victoria Hospital, Blackpool Town Centre, or the
Airport. Given this market and the strong support for Park and Ride amongst the wider consultees, the
measure is to be taken forward to the recommended plan for further feasibility work.

Other Measures
The highway and public transport models developed as part of this study are inappropriate tools for
assessing many of the other measures identified over and above the M55-Norcross highway schemes.
Appendix CD provides a coarse assessment of how these measures contribute towards the study
objectives, as well as the Local Transport Plan objectives for Lancashire and Blackpool.

This shows that with the exception of the completion of the M55-Heyhouses link road and Demand
Responsive Transport, all the measures have potential to contribute towards the study objectives. All of
the remaining measures are therefore to be taken forward in to the recommended plan, but in recognition
that further work will be required in order to confirm their viability, whether they provide good value for
money and the level of priority which should be afforded to them in relation to other proposals.

12.7. Summary of Strategy Assessment against Objectives
A summary of the assessment of each strategy against the study objectives is provided in Table 12.14.
This shows that the Red option performs best against the study objectives as it is the most effective in
reducing traffic and congestion on the A585(T), as well as improving access to the Wyre urban area, the
port and reducing congestion on north-south routes. The Blue, Yellow and Purple options also perform
well, but are less effective particularly in terms of reducing congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool
and supporting the regeneration of Blackpool.




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Table 12.14 Assessment Against Study Objectives
                                                                                            Strategy Option
                  Objective                                                                                                                 Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink         Purple         Green             Public
                                                                                                                                            Transport
Relief of traffic volumes on the
                                                                                                                   
A585
Congestion and environmental
problems affecting local                                                                                           
communities on the A585
Congestion on north-south routes in
Blackpool and the Urban Costal                                                                                                        
Strip
Growing Demand for freight access
to the port
                                                                                                                 
Capacity to support regeneration of
the Blackpool and Wyre urban                                                                                                     
areas

Table 12.15 provides a summary of the assessment against Government objectives. From this it is evident
that although the Red option performs well against the study objectives, the option performs much less
well against Government objectives, particularly environment and accessibility. The table also
demonstrates that the Blue and Yellow options perform best overall against this set of objectives.

Table 12.15 Assessment Against Government Objectives
                                                                                            Strategy Option
                  Objective                                                                                                                 Maximum
                                                        Red          Blue        Yellow         Pink         Purple         Green             Public
                                                                                                                                            Transport
Environment                                                                                                                            
Safety                                                                                                                            
Economy                                                                                                                         
Accessibility                                                                                                                          
Integration                                                                                                                       
Risk                                                    High       Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium                                        Medium

The draft Final Report recommended that the Blue and Yellow options should be taken forward to the
recommended plan. Although both options performed well against both the study and Government
objectives, the Blue option has the advantage of being located within an existing transport corridor. The
route also runs parallel to the rail line, which reduces the impact on landscape. The option is alsoslightly
more effective at reducing traffic flows on north-south routes in Blackpool and is more beneficial in terms of
severance. However, the route requires a new junction with the M55, which raises a number of issues in
relation to construction risk and acceptability, as discussed earlier within this chapter. The Yellow option is
lower risk in terms of construction, does not require a new junction with the M55 and more effective in
relieving the A585(T), improving journey times on the key route between the M55 (Junction 3) and
Fleetwoood. and is also more effective in improving access to the Port.

 It was acknowledged that whilstalthough the options had respective lative advantages and disadvantages,
these would be the most effective in meeting the study and Government objectives. However, fFollowing
consultation with the Highways Agency, it was decided to remove the Blue option was removed from the
recommended plan in the Final Report as a result of their concerns relating to the implications of a new
junction with the M55. This does not discount the opportunity to include the Blue option and others in any
future public consultation, but the Yellow option would be the preferred option in the recommended plan.

12.8. Conclusions
The conclusions from the assessment of the strategies was as follows:
   Red- whilst being the most effective option in terms of reducing journey times between the M55 and
    Fleetwood and relieving north-south routes in Blackpool, the environmental impacts of the scheme
    and the level of construction risk were found to be unacceptable (REJECT).
   Blue- addresses congestion problems on the A585(T) and provides some relief to north-south routes
    in Blackpool. However, the option would require a new junction with the M55 and the implications of
    this were considered to be unacceptable (REJECT).
   Yellow -– although this is less effective in relieving congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool, the
    scheme provides effective relief to the A585(T), the level of construction risk is relatively low (CARRY
    FORWARD).
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     Pink- reduces congestion on the A585(T) by providing an upgraded parallel route, but the option
      would not improve the environment for the local communities (REJECT).
     Purple- reduces congestion on the A585(T), but there would be significant impacts in terms of
      severance for the local community as the scheme bisects the area between Singleton village and
      Singleton Crossroads (REJECT).
     Green- as with the Purple option, this reduces congestion on the A585(T), but there are adverse
      severance impacts with the scheme bisecting the area between Singleton village and Singleton
      Crossroads (REJECT).
     Maximum Public Transport – this alone will not deliver solutions to congestion problems on the
      A585(T), but some of the measures could contribute towards an effective overall strategy for the Fylde
      Coast (CARRY FORWARD SOME COMPONENT MEASURES).

The Yellow strategy option is therefore to be taken forward to the recommended plan, along with some of
the component measures from the Maximum Public Transport option.




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13 THE RECOMMENDED PLAN




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13. The Recommended Plan

13.1. Introduction
Chapter 132 details the assessment of strategy options against the study/ and Government objectives, and
following an exclusion analysis, concludes with the recommendations in terms of components to be carried
forward to this plan. This chapter presents the final plan and undertakes an overall assessment, leading
through to the specification of an implementation plan and phasing programme for the main scheme.

13.2. The Plan
This plan includes a package of measures which will meet the study objectives over a long term timespan.
In the short term, it is recommended that the schemes included in the Do Minimum, particularly upgrades
to key junctions on the A585(T), should be progressed in order to deliver improvements required in the
short term.

Following the strategy assessment, the Yellow option has been taken forward to the recommended plan,
along with a number of measures included in the Maximum Public Transport strategy option. The
exclusion analysis resulted in the removal of the M55-Heyhouses link road, Demand Responsive Public
Transport and the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway Phase 2. The full components of the recommended
plan are shown in Figure 13.1

The strategy assessment demonstrated the recommended option would be effective in meeting the study
objectives, performs well in economic terms and does not have negative implications which could be
considered as ‘show stoppers’.

Table 13.1 shows that the recommended option contributes towards each of the study objectives and is
particularly effective in addressing problems on the A585(T) and improving access to the Port of
Fleetwood.

Table 13.1 Recommended Plan: Assessment Against Study Objectives
                                                                                                                            Option
                                           Objective
                                                                                                                Recommended Yellow

Relief of traffic volumes on the A585(T)                                                                                     
Congestion and environmental problems affecting local communities
                                                                                                                             
on the A585
Growing Demand for freight access to the port                                                                                
Congestion on north-south routes in Blackpool and the Urban Costal
Strip
                                                                                                                                
Capacity to support regeneration of the Blackpool and Wyre urban
areas
                                                                                                                              

It is recommended that Lancashire Council should now undertake a public consultation on the
recommended Yellow route, but also present the other M55-Norcross options for consideration as potential
alternatives.

13.3. Appraisal Summary Table
A detailed assessment of the strategy options against the Government’s core five objectives of
Environment, Safety, Economy Accessibility and Integration, in addition to Risk, is undertaken in Chapter
132. This section summarises assessment for the recommended options. The full Appraisal Summary
Table (AST) for the recommended plan is included in Appendix B.

Environment
There are no factors which have emerged in the assessment which could be considered as ‘showstoppers’
in environmental terms. The recommended option will result in a reduction in the number of properties
being adversely affected by noise and poor air quality. This is attributable to route alignment being more
removed from centres of population compared with the existing route. However, this option would
generate some impacts on landscape as it cuts through an area of open countryside.

Safety
The accident model forecasts that the recommended option will reduce the number of accidents in the
study area. This is largely a result of traffic using higher standard links, which have lower accident rates.
Measures included in the supporting package such as the enhanced cycle network and 20 mph zone on
Blackpool Promenade will also serve to improve safety.



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Economy
The strategy will result in a substantial benefit stream, which supports a strong economic case. This
follows largely from journey time savings on the highway and public transport networks, but benefits will
also be derived from improved journey time reliability and wider regeneration impacts.

An economic summary of the recommended option is provided in Table 13.2. The removal of the M55-
Heyhouses link road from the recommended plan has resulted in a reduction in the overall Benefit to Cost
Ratios (BCR’s) from the corresponding original strategy option. Whilst this scheme performed well in
economic terms, the study team considered that it should not be included in the recommended plan as it
does not satisfy the overall objectives of the study.

Table 13.2 Economic Summary of the Recommended Option
                          Present Value    Present Value                                                   Benefit to Cost
      Strategy Option
                          of Costs (£m)   of Benefits (£m)                                                  Ratio (BCR)
Recommended Yellow             154.7           405.4                                                            2.6

The recommended options was also tested using the low and high growth scenarios in order to
demonstrate that the economic justification of the strategy was not dependent on regeneration
assumptions made in the medium scenario. This showed that the BCR’s for the low and high scenarios
are 2.9 and 4.2 respectively. The differences will partly attributable to the varying assumptions relating to
the changing distribution of trip patterns. This demonstrates that there is no clear relationship between the
number of trips and economic benefits. For example, increased traffic flows will deliver benefits for
additional users, but more trips on the network can also increase car journey times, which acts to reduce
economic benefits.      TO ADD


Accessibility
The recommended option will reduce severance around the Singleton Crossroads junction. This may
generate some severance as the alignment runs to the south of Singleton village, but the impact would be
limited as the area is away from the main population clusters. It is anticipated that access to the public
transport system would be improved through the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1 and
improvements to bus services.

Integration
Passenger interchange will be improved through measures such as the Blackpool – Fleetwood Tramway
Phase 1, Quality Bus Corridors and enhanced bus services to Blackpool Airport. The recommended
option will also improve freight interchange through driver rest facilities/lorry park on the A585(T) in order
to facilitates access to the Port of Fleetwood.

The recommended option is integrated and consistent with policies at a national, regional and local level.
North West Regional Planning Guidance (RPG13), now the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) and the Joint
Lancashire Structure Plan (JLSP) in particular are key documents at a local and regional level. These both
stress the need to address congestion problems in the M55-Norcross corridor, something which is
specifically targeted by the recommended options. Workplace Travel Plans and School Travel Plans
would also complement other Government policies such as access to education and work.

Risk
The recommended option is not considered to be high risk in terms of construction. In terms of
acceptability, the Yellow route was popular at the public consultation carried out in the early 1990’s as the
alignment was considered to be ‘out of the way’. However, there are environmental implications which
some stakeholders may consider to be unacceptable.

13.4. Regeneration
Both the recommended option would be effective in facilitating the regeneration of the Wyre urban area
through the provision of an improved link with the M55. This complements Regional Planning Guidance
(RPG 13), now the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS), which states that congestion problems in the area are
‘regionally significant’ and emphasises the role of the Port of Fleetwood. In the Joint Lancashire Structure
Plan (JLSP), the current level of congestion is considered to be having a significant impact on the local
economy, and with improved access to the M55 is required..

The plan would also facilitate regeneration of Blackpool, by reducing congestion on north-south routes,
and improving linkages between the M55 and north Blackpool. In particular, the inclusion of the Blackpool-
Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1 is key to achieving the study objective of providing capacity and access to
support regeneration of the Blackpool and Wyre urban areas. An upgraded tramway also forms a key
component of the Blackpool Masterplan proposals.

The Economic Impact Report (EIR) which was completed in 2003 as part of the maximising the potential of
the Masterplan proposals. Annex E submission for Phase 1 of the tramway, stresses that the tram is an
integral part of the Blackpool image and is on a par with Blackpool Tower and the Pleasure Beach.
Closure of the tramway, assumed in the Do Minimum, can therefore be expected to have a significantly
adverse impact on the local economy. The EIR forecasts that a high estimate of 650 jobs and a low
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estimate of 410 jobs would be safeguarded or created as a result of the scheme. This does not take into
account additional benefits such as those resulting from the improved image of the town and addition
confidence to investment decisions.




13.5. Implementation
Implementing the strategy will be the responsibility of all the organisations on the Steering Group. Their
role will vary from implementation of an element of the strategy requiring expenditure on infrastructure, to
active support for policies and interventions in the strategy.

Lancashire County Council and the Highways Agency will be responsible for taking forward and
implementing the Yellow routes between the M55 and Norcross. Blackpool Council and Lancashire
County Council will be responsible for managing a large proportion of the remaining elements, including
measures such as the Quality Bus Corridors, cycle routes and School Travel Plans. A significant
proportion of the strategy will be implemented through the Local Transport Plans (LTP’s) and the
completion of this study is timely in terms of informing the second LTP period (2006-2011).

Table 13.3 is an Implementation Plan for the various component measures of the recommended plan.
This includes the delivery agency, approximate capital costs and the timescale for delivery. In terms of
timescale, the majority of measures have been allocated for implementation within the next Local
Transport Plan (2006-2011). The exceptions to this are the Yellow route and the Blackpool – Fleetwood
Tramway Phase 1, which would both require longer planning periods. Complementary Measures to be
implemented with the yellow route isare also allocated to this longer term timescale.

It is recommended that a review of the measures allocated to the 2006-2011 timescale should be
undertaken by the Steering Group in order to identify ‘early wins’ for implementation within the first two
years of the next Local Transport Plan.

Table 13.3 Implementation Plan
                                                                                                           Approx                     Opening
                                                                           Delivery Agency
  Scheme                                                                                                 Capital Costs                  Year
                                                                                                          (£ million)                Timescale
Yellow route (M55-Norcross)                                                  LCC/Highways                       £95.8                2014-2016
                                                                                Agency
20 mph zone on Blackpool Promenade                                                BC                             £1.6                2006-2011
Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Phase 1                                         BC & LCC                       £106.5                2010-2012
(Starr Gate - Fleetwood)
Complementary Measures                                                          BC & LCC                         £3.5                2014-2016
Enhanced Ticketing                                                              BC & LCC                           -                 2006-2009
Driver Rest Facilities/Lorry Park on the A585                                       LCC                          £1.0                2006-2011
Enhanced Cycle Network                                                          BC & LCC                         £2.8                2006-2011
Enhanced Driver Information                                               Highways Agency                        £3.7                2006-2011
Enhanced Express Bus Services to Blackpool                                           BC                            -                 2006-2009
Airport
Fleetwood – Poulton Rail Station Bus Link                                           LCC                         £0.16                2006-2011
Freight Quality Partnership                                                     BC & LCC                           -                 2006-2009
Park and Ride at Junction 4 (serving Blackpool                                       BC                          £3.0                2008-2011
Town Centre, Hospital and Blackpool Airport)
Quality Bus Corridors on Lines 7 and 11                                         BC & LCC                        £10.4                2006-2009
Real Time Passenger Information                                                 BC & LCC                        £0.7                 2008-2011
School Travel Plans                                                             BC & LCC                           -                 2006-2011
Workplace Travel Plans                                                          BC & LCC                           -                 2006-2011
Total                                                                                                  £237.3 or £229.2              2006-2016

13.6. Summary
The recommended plan successfully contributes to meeting the study objectives, as well as those at a
national, regional and local level. The plan is based around the Yellow route, which in itself will meet the
study objectives, but the package of supporting measures are important in facilitating regeneration and
providing viable alternatives to the private car. As such, the implementation of the package of measures
will ensure that the objectives are met more fully. It should also be emphasised that whilst this package
comprises of measures which are complementary, many can also be expected to perform well on a stand
alone basis.

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As stated earlier in this chapter, this plan has been developed to meet the study objectives over a long
term timespan. The recommendations should not slow the progression of measures included in the Do
Minimum, particularly upgrades to key junctions on the A585(T), which are important to delivering
improvements required in the short term.




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APPENDIX A – ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND
REGENERATION




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Appendix A – Economic Activity and Regeneration

Introduction
In this section we review some of the key economic and regeneration indicators for the Fylde Coast Study
area. We have examined data for each of the districts located within the study area, and for a ward based
definition of the study area (see Section 1.3). These are compared to the county, regional and national
data.

Employment
Between 1995 and 2002, employment in the study area increased by 9.0%, compared to an increase of
12.4% across GB as a whole and 13.7% in the North West region. However, this disguises an above
average increase in employment in Blackpool over the period (16.3%), extremely poor growth in Wyre and
slight decline in Fylde.

Table 1 Employment Change, 1995-2002
                              1995                                            2002                          Change 1995-2002
                               No.                                             No.                           No.           %
Great Britain             22,728,900                                      25,548,100                     2,819,200       12.4
North West                 2,614,700                                       2,974,100                      359,400        13.7
Lancashire                  418,700                                         470,400                        51,700        12.3
Blackpool                    53,500                                          62,200                         8,700        16.3
Fylde                        34,800                                          34,300                         -500          -1.4
Wyre                         29,600                                          29,800                          200           0.7
Study Area                   79,200                                          86,300                         7,100          9.0
Source: NOMIS, ABI 2002/AES 1995

Tables 1 and 2 show that the main source of the growth in Blackpool was the public administration,
education and health sectors with the 53.9% increase corresponding to an actual gain of 8,400 jobs. In
Fylde, the overall loss in jobs was largely due to the reduction of 27.3% in this same sector (corresponding
to 2,600 jobs) counteracting increases in other services of 500 jobs, banking, finance etc of 700 jobs and
distribution, hotels & restaurants of 700 jobs. However, there was also a notable reduction in
manufacturing employment of 1000 jobs (8.4%).

Table 2 Change in Employment by Sector, 1995-2002 (absolute change)

                                                                                                     Black-                                   Study
                                                      GB          North West          Lancs                          Fylde           Wyre
                                                                                                      pool                                    Area
Manufacturing                                     -579,700           -86,300         -10,100           -400          -1,000          -1,100   -900
Distribution, hotels and
                                                   936,800          125,300           13,900           800             700           1,200    1,100
restaurants
Transport and communications                       209,700           25,900            2,700           -700           -100            300     -800
Banking, finance and insurance,
                                                   960,100          123,100           14,000          1,200            700              0     1,200
etc
Public administration,education &
                                                   842,300          117,500           12,600          8,400          -2,600          -2,600   5,600
health
Other services                                     285,400           28,000            4,600          -1,000           500            500     -800

TOTAL EMPLOYEES                                   2,819,200         359,300           51,700          8,800           -400            200     7,100
Source: NOMIS, ABI 2002/AES 1995

In Wyre increases in employment in construction (1,400 jobs), distribution, hotels etc (1,200) and other
services (500) were offset by the large reduction in employment in public administration, education and
health (2,600 jobs) and manufacturing (1,100 jobs).




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Table 3 Change in Employment by Sector, 1995-2002 (%)
                                               North                                                        Black-                                 Study
                                        GB     West                                          Lancs           pool          Fylde       Wyre        Area
                                         %      %                                              %              %             %           %            %
Manufacturing                                                      -14.5        -16.1          -9.7          -7.4          -8.4        -24.8       -10.0
Distribution, hotels and restaurants                               17.5          20.3          14.1          4.2           10.4           15.3      4.5
Transport and communications                                       15.6          17.0          13.4         -28.1          -8.7           25.9     -21.7
Banking, finance and insurance, etc                                23.8          31.4          29.5          23.3          15.3           -0.1      16.4
Public administration,education & health                           15.3          18.0          11.3          53.9          -27.3       -25.0        22.8
Other services                                                     26.9          24.1          25.5         -21.2          47.7           30.1     -13.4
TOTAL EMPLOYEES                                                    12.4          13.7          12.3          16.4          -1.2           0.8       8.9
Source: NOMIS, ABI 2002/AES 1995

In comparison with the national situation, the study area as a whole has not experienced as great a loss in
manufacturing employment, with the exception of Wyre which has experienced a 28% reduction in its
manufacturing base. However, this is largely a consequence of the relatively low base jobs in this sector in
Blackpool, so that the area is less exposed to the impact of restructuring in this sector. Given the
importance of this sector to employment in Fylde, where it still provides over 30% of employment in the
district (see Table 4 below), the absolute losses experienced are quite large, but in percentage terms the
area has fared well relative to the national and regional situation.

The decline in employment in transport and communications in the study area appears particularly severe
when compared to the increase in the sector at national, regional and even county level, as does the
situation with respect to employment in the other services sector. While the increase in employment in
banking, financial services and insurance is a positive development given the potential for higher skilled
employment in these sectors, it is also below par compared to the change taking place at the regional and
county level.

Table 4 Employment Structure, 2002
                                                                    North                         Black-                                         Study
                                                       GB           West           Lancs           pool            Fylde           Wyre          Area
                                                       %             %               %              %               %               %              %
Manufacturing                                         13.4            15.1           20.0             7.9           31.5           11.3           9.6

Construction                                           4.5            4.7             6.3             3.7           4.3             9.9           5.2

Distribution, hotels and restaurants                  24.6            25.0           23.8           30.7            20.4           29.5          30.2

Transport and communications                           6.1            6.0             4.8             3.0           2.2             4.6           3.3

Banking, finance and insurance, etc                   19.6            17.3           13.1           10.1            15.8            9.2          10.0

Public administration,education &
                                                      24.9            26.0           26.3           38.4            19.9           26.1          34.9
health

Other services                                         5.3            4.8             4.8             6.0           4.6             6.7           6.2

TOTAL EMPLOYEES                                       100.0          100.0          100.0          100.0           100.0           100.0         100.0
Source: NOMIS, ABI 2002/AES 1995

In 2002, the largest employment sectors in the study area were public administration, education and health
(35% of all jobs in the area) and distribution, hotels and restaurant (30%). While this is common across
the country, here they do appear particularly dominant and thus the economy may be more exposed to
change in these sectors. The highest proportion of financial services jobs are found in Fylde (15.8%),
although this remains lower than the average across the region and nationally. Fylde also has the largest
proportion of manufacturing jobs (31.5%), compared to a regional average of just 15.1%. Wyre also
appears to be reliant on employment in the distribution, hotels and restaurant sector, reflecting the
influence of tourism.

Labour Market
A key feature of the labour market in the wider study area is the relatively older population structure,
particularly in Fylde where almost 23% of the resident population are aged over 65, compared to a national
average of 16%. This impacts on the local economy in several ways, but one of the most significant is that
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it reduces the potential labour force available for employers to draw upon, notwithstanding policy initiatives
to extend the retirement age.

Table 5 Population and Age Structure
                        TOTAL
                                       Under 16 yrs                                                16 to 64                          Over 65 yrs
                     POPULATION
                                       No         %                                           No                  %               No             %
England & Wales       52,041,916  10,488,736 20.2%                                       33,240,406             63.9%         8,312,774        16.0%
North West Region      6,729,764   1,392,209    20.7%                                     4,261,475             63.3%         1,076,080        16.0%
Lancashire             1,134,974    232,012     20.4%                                      714,449              62.9%          188,513         16.6%
Blackpool               142,283      26,872     18.9%                                       87,554              61.5%           27,857         19.6%
Fylde                    73,218      12,826     17.5%                                       43,713              59.7%           16,679         22.8%
Source: ONS – Census 2001

Economic activity measures the number of people of working age who are actually in work, or are not
employed but are actively seeking work. It tends to be higher in areas where the economic situation is
more buoyant and where employment is more readily available, and where demand for labour can inflate
wages, so as to encourage people into work. The economic activity rate for the study area is lower than
the national average (see Table 6), but higher than the regional situation. Of the individual districts, both
Fylde and Wyre have a higher rate than the regional average, while Fylde also has greater activity than the
national average. Economic activity in Blackpool is on a par with the regional situation, although lower
than the national average.

Table 6 Economic Activity, 2001
                                  Working Age                                                                                           % Part Time
                                                Economic                  Unemp.                                       Self
                                   Population                All Employed                                                               (as % of FT
                                               Activity Rate               Rate                                      Emp.Rate
                                    (16 to 64)                                                                                            and PT)
England and Wales                   33,240,406               75.3%            22,795,520              5.0%              12.4%               22.5%
North West                          4,261,475                72.6%             2,794,557              5.7%              11.1%               23.4%
Lancashire                           714,449                 74.4%              485,270               4.5%              12.5%               23.8%
Blackpool                             87,554                 72.6%              57,217                6.7%              15.5%               26.5%
Fylde District                        43,713                 76.3%              31,221                3.1%              15.2%               23.5%
Wyre District                         62,471                 75.4%              43,398                4.1%              16.2%               26.8%
Study Area                           160,730                 74.2%              108,590               5.3%              15.7%               26.3%
Source: ONS – Census 2001
                                                                                                            2
The unemployment rate for the study area measured by the 2001 Census is higher than the national and
Lancashire averages, although lower than the regional average. Of the three districts being considered,
we can see from Table 6 that the unemployment rate was highest in Blackpool and lowest in Fylde, where
it was 3.1% and much lower than in all the comparison areas.

An important feature of the labour market in the study area is the relatively high levels of self employment,
at 15.7% compared to a national level of 12.4% and a regional level of 11.1%. High self-employment can
be interpreted as an indication of a buoyant and entrepreneurial economy. However, it can sometimes be
more a reflection of the scarcity of other employment opportunities, which is often the case in more rural
areas.

There is also a higher than average incidence of part-time work in the study area, with 26.3% of people
working part-time, compared to 22.5% in England and Wales. This will be a result of the importance of
tourism to the local economy as it requires flexible working patterns to cope with the peaks and troughs
through the year and even during the day in the hospitality sectors.

We can see in Table 7 below that while the study area has representation of managers and senior officials
in line with national average, there are relatively fewer people in the professional occupations. There are
also fewer residents employed in associate technical and professional occupations, although the gap is not
so severe. As a consequence, we can see that there are relatively more people in administrative and
secretarial work, skilled trades, personal service, sales and customer service and the elementary
occupations.

There are also notable variations in the occupational structure of the individual districts, with a high
proportion of the residents of Fylde employed in professional and associate professional occupations and
a particularly low incidence of these occupations being held by residents of Blackpool. The nature of the
dominant employment sectors in Blackpool is also reflected in the high proportion of its residents employed
in lower skilled occupations (personal services, sales and customer service and elementary occupations).


2
 Which is ‘self-assessed’ by the individual completing the Census form, rather than reflecting unemployment benefit
claimants
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Table 7 Occupational Structure, 2001 (%)
                                                                                                                                           Process;
                           Managers                       Associate                                                        Sales and
                                           Profess-                  Admin &              Skilled           Personal                        Plant/   Element-
                           and Senior                      Prof. &                                                         Customer
                                            ional                   Secretarial           Trades            Service                        Machine ary Occs.
                            Officials                     Technical                                                         Service
                                                                                                                                          Operatives
England & Wales   15.1                        11.2              13.8        13.3            11.6              6.9                   7.7       8.5      11.9
North West        13.7                        10.5              12.8        13.1            11.7              7.6                   8.3       9.8      12.5
Lancashire        14.0                        10.6              12.5        12.4            12.8              7.9                   7.9      10.3      11.8
Blackpool         15.6                         5.8              10.7        14.5            11.8              9.4                   9.3       8.2      14.7
Fylde District    17.2                        14.4              14.9        13.5            10.4              7.6                   6.6       5.7       9.8
Wyre District     13.9                        10.0              12.1        15.8            13.9              8.1                   7.7       7.9      10.7
Study Area        15.0                         7.9              11.7        14.9            12.6              8.7                   8.5       7.9      12.8
Source: ONS – Census 2001

This occupational structure is reflected in the skill levels evident in the population (using qualification levels
as an approximate measure of skills). As Figure 1 demonstrates, there are very high proportions of the
residents of Blackpool without any qualifications, and consequently, low levels of people with qualifications
above NVQ Level 3 (broadly equivalent to 2 ‘A’ levels). In Fylde however, we can see that there are above
average proportions of the resident population with the higher level qualifications with 30% with NVQ Level
3 and above, compared to the national average of 28% and a regional average of just 25%.

Figure 1 Qualifications Held By Working Age Population (16-74), 2001 (%)




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  Source: ONS – Census 2001

Deprivation
An important measure of the relative prosperity of an area can be found in the Indices of Deprivation,
produced by the ODPM. This assesses the multiple deprivation present in an area based on ‘packages’ of
indicators in seven domains:
    Income deprivation;
    Employment deprivation;
    Health deprivation and disability;
    Education, Skills and Training deprivation;
    Barriers to housing and services;
    Living environment deprivation; and
    Crime.

The index is produced at Super Output Area level (SOA), which is smaller than ward level and thus can
allow quite detailed assessment of the incidence of disadvantage. As we can see in Figure 2, large areas
within Blackpool feature amongst the worst 20 per cent of SOAs in England. There is also a concentration
of SOAs in this category in Fleetwood/Thornton in Wyre district. There are no SOAs in the worst 20% in
Fylde. In the case of Blackpool, this points to a structural problem when set against relatively low rates of
unemployment. This is likely to be a result of a high proportion of low paid jobs.



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Regeneration and Economic Development

Blackpool
Blackpool is recognised in Regional Policy (Regional Spatial Strategy and the Regional Economic
Strategy) as a regeneration priority area (coastal towns), reflecting the incidence of disadvantage present
(see above) in the area as well as the particular issues that have to be faced to enable the resort to
respond to the changes in UK tourism.

The main emphasis for development in Blackpool is the Masterplan, published in 2003. This provides a
framework for an ambitious regeneration programme which proposes new and improved facilities including
a conference centre, hotels and casino, major visitor attractions and a greatly enhanced retail offer,
combined with comprehensive public transport, environmental and landscape improvements. If fully
implemented these could result in almost 1 million sqm of development in the town. The improvement in
facilities is anticipated to stem the loss of visitors to the resort, returning the staying visitors to levels of
around 6 million each year.

There are a number of other regeneration initiatives currently underway, largely co-ordinated through the
Blackpool Challenge Partnership, originally established to implement SRB funded programmes. Other
programmes operating in parts of Blackpool are ERDF (Objective 2) and the Neighbourhood Renewal
Fund.

Fylde
While Fylde appears relatively prosperous against a number of measures there are issues affecting the
local economy such as the restructuring in agriculture and defence industries and the changing nature of
UK tourism that are being addressed by the borough council and partners. One focus is on town centre
regeneration, to ensure that these continue to offer attractive and competitive locations for businesses and
the facilities that are attractive to residents and visitors. Initiatives underway seek to improve the
environment and appearance of the centres, improve accessibility and support business development
through the provision of advice and support on aspects including starting up and expanding businesses,
health and safety training, information technology and environmental issues.

Wyre
Economic Development priorities for Wyre include encouraging employment development on brownfield
sites; working with partners to develop the rural economy through local food initiatives and market town
development; working to develop new tourism opportunities; developing the potential of Fleetwood port;
improving the transport infrastructure and supporting business development.

Fleetwood is a focus for regeneration and the Regeneration Partnership has been successful in sourcing
funds for various schemes through the SRB programme. The Fleetwood-Thornton Strategic Development
Area offers a major opportunity for new employment, housing and community facilities utilising
considerable areas of previously developed land. Some development already exists, but as the total site
area is some 500 hectares, opportunities remain. Fleetwood also has ERDF Objective 2 status and so is
able to offer financial support towards projects that will encourage new business development.

Conclusion
Fylde is relatively prosperous on many measures compared to national and regional averages. Blackpool
however clearly has structural problems in its economy which lead to it performing badly against many
indicators. Proposals for the resort’s regeneration are understandably bold, as maintaining the status quo
will not be sufficient to regenerate the town. However, the scale of the overall development represents a
huge challenge in terms of its implementation. The situation is more mixed in Wyre, although there are
areas of need and opportunity, especially the Fleetwood Thornton area that can be exploited which could
improve the overall situation.




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APPENDIX B - APPRAISAL SUMMARY TABLES




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Appendix B – Appraisal Summary Tables




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APPENDIX C – TRAFFIC FLOW DIAGRAMS




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Appendix C – Traffic Flow Diagrams




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APPENDIX D – COARSE ASSESSMENTS




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Appendix D – Coarse Assessments




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