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Tides Foundation Lecture, Sept 2009

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Tides Foundation Lecture, Sept 2009 Powered By Docstoc
					The Long March for Climate Justice
Dr. M. K. Dorsey - Dartmouth College, Environmental Studies Program Tides Center, Pacific Room • 28 Sept. 2009

3 Objectives Today
• Get Context & the Deep Background • Sketch market mania, madness & orthodoxy

• Elaborate the nature of climate justice & role of institutions in the pre- & post-2012 world --The Next 69 days…

Also today…
Re-THINKING Re-CONSIDERING

Lessons from the First 100 Days…

In synch or Out of synch?

docLINK

Background…

Present CO2 Level (383ppm)

?

Mount Pinatubo Eruption

Oil Embargo

Agung volcano (Bali)

Re-THINKING Re-CONSIDERING Science

Its all a HOAX!!!

But seriously…

What’s on DEEP Background?

Emissions Must Go to Zero…
( or

negative ?)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/235 52526

A late November 2008 meta-data report by the Public Interest Research Centre (PIRC) says:

“…critical climate [collapse]
processes might have begun … almost a century ahead of schedule…”

--Public Interest Research Centre. Climate Safety. 25 November 2008.

“The IPCC’s estimates are now two years old. More recent science shows that we are on track for sealevel rise of at least one and maybe two meters by the end of the century. That would spell disaster, even disappearance, for some of our islands. If the science is moving, so too must world leaders… [we need] 1.5º to stay alive”
--Ambassador Dessima Williams, Permanent Representative of Grenada and Chair of AOSIS, 11 Sept. 2009.

Are we OUT OF TIME…? IPCC „too conservative‟ Copenhagen 12 March 2009

September Sea Ice Extent 1978-2008

by 2050 from shipping

by 2050 from shipping

(Note: These projections should be considered preliminary, but illustrative.)

16

Granier CATF/GISS Arctic workshop, January 7, 2007, NYC

Increased shipping will bring more short-lived pollutants to the Arctic Potential surface ozone increase, Potential black carbon increase,

Role of Short-term forcers Globally?
1.4

Temperature impact from CO2 compared to other climate forcings, relative to 1750

Temperature in degrees C

1.2

1

Black carbon

0.6

Carbon dioxide
Tropospheric ozone

0.4

0.2

0

CO2

Short-lived Climate Forcings

Ramanathan, 2008

0.8

Key Policy Issues & Problems

Climate (in)Justice
(Spreading globally)

All countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable.
In this decade over 3 billion people in developing countries could to be affected by climate related disasters People in developing countries are affected at 20 times the rate of those in developed countries
4,000

Number affected (Millions)

3,000 Dev'ed 2,000 CIT Dev'ing LDC 1,000

-

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

Source: World Bank analysis based on CREDA data.

Maplecroft Climate Change Risk Report (2009/2010)

22 African countries
out of 28 across the world at

„extreme risk‟

Late 2008… Climate refugee resettlements underway…

Randeep Ramesh in Male, Maldives November 11, 2008

The Maldives will begin to divert a portion of the country's billion-dollar annual tourist revenue into buying a new homeland - possibly in Australia - as an insurance policy against climate change that threatens to turn the 300,000 islanders into environmental refugees, the country's first democratically elected president has said.

3 June 2009

Item #1 on To-Do List First 100 Days…

Overview
HR 2454 The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 • Passed the House 219-212 on June 26th after 3 months of hearings and revisions • Senate EPW committee hearings commenced this week • Senate floor vote as early as mid-September
What HR 2454 does:  A clean energy title, designed both to set new standards for current types of power generation and to accelerate development and deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage.    An efficiency title that provides funding for energy efficiency programs, and the setting of stronger building codes and product efficiency standards. A cap and trade program that sets mandatory caps on 87% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including the electric power and oil and gas sectors, and heavy industry. Measures designed to ease the transition into a low carbon economy by providing assistance to those impacted by a cap - including industry, affected sectors of America’s workforce, and low income households; these also include support for international climate change programs.

Key issues: • Green Jobs…Any? Enough? • Allowance distribution -- Who bears the costs?) • Offsets - Rules, who’s in charge, limits…?) • International engagement, trade and competitiveness…? • Targets…??

Key policy question…

Are markets FAST enough & do they drive INNOVATION?

Debating Prof. M.K. Dorsey at the International Economic Forum of the Americas, Climate Change Panel… Montreal, Canada 2008

“…it will take five to ten years for
carbon markets to work properly…”
--Prof. Christoph Böhringer, Chair for Economic Policy at the University of Oldenberg, & University of Heidelburg

“I agree.”
--Luc Bertrand, President and CEO, Montréal Climate Exchange, June 2008

Did you miss the

(3)
warnings? The CAVEATS…

First Warning

Market Caveat…

Emissions permits are “assets that, like other property rights, owners will fight to protect.”
David Victor, 2000

“Firms may end up putting as much effort into rent capture as into finding efficient ways to reduce carbon usage. Investments may be delayed in the hope that high observed marginal costs would lead to more generous allowance allocations as compensation. The increased complexity of the programme… may lead some groups to seek exemptions or bonus allowances…Groups will invest in lawyers, government lobbying, and public relations campaigns. This will lead to high costs and delays.”
Peter Cramton and Suzi Kerr, 2001

“Bullshit . . . stupid . . . a mockery . . . an outrageous waste of public money.”
UK Parliamentary Committee on the UK Emissions Trading Scheme, 2004

“European Commissioner for Energy gives damning

verdict on EU’s efforts to tackle climate change . . . „A failure‟ . . .”
TV Channel 4 Evening News, London, lead story, 7 March 2007

“Emissions trading… would make money for some

very large corporations, but don‟t believe for a minute that this charade would do much about global warming . . . old-fashioned rent-seeking . . .
making money by gaming the regulatory process.”
Wall Street Journal, 3 March 2007

Second Warning

Offset Caveat…

“No one has any idea how to calculate [the climatic value of biotic] offsets. Nor is it likely they ever will.”
L. Lohmann, 1999

Offsets: “Like eating salad in order to justify eating dessert.”
--Washington Times, 8 March 2007

Whereas in practice…

“ . . . mitigation activities in developing countries [i.e., offsets] provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically.”
--Axel and Katharina Michaelowa, Climatic Change, Sept. 2007

Third Warning…Last CAVEAT

Rise of Carbon Trading Malfeasance, Fraud
&

Criminal Activity…

“If you are going to trade any commodity on the open market, you are creating a profit and loss situation. There will be fraudulent

trading of carbon credits…In future, if you
are running a factory and you desperately need credits to offset your emissions, there will be someone who can make that happen for

Absolutely, organized crime will be involved.”
you.
--Peter Younger, Interpol, told Reuters in an interview at a forestry conference in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian island of Bali, 2007

From this summer… (echoing Interpol)

Given the Warnings: WHY? • The Theory…

WHY THIS: Key “Solution” from the first 100 days?

So on one side of the theory coin…

“Carbon trading’s [and offsets] objective is “to reduce the costs of emissions reductions for industrialised countries.”
Ken Newcombe, World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund,
Bonn, 6 June 2000

On the other side of the theory coin…

“The complete relinquishment of land and labour to the market mechanism would result in the demolition of society.”
Karl Polanyi (1944)

The Reality…

“[the EU Emissions Trading Scheme] ETS has done nothing to curb emissions . . . it is a highly regressive tax falling mostly on poor people . . . Enhances the market power of generators. Have policy goals been achieved? Prices up, emissions up, profits up . . . so, not really.”
Peter Atherton, Citigroup Global Markets, January 2007

“All generation-based utilities – winners. Coal and nuclearbased generators – biggest winners. Hedge funds and energy traders – even bigger winners. Losers . . . herm . . . Consumers!”
Ibid.

“The price

of carbon has had virtually no effect on the market so far and virtually no effect on climate change
. . . There must be more focus on energy efficiency, more research and development and more renewable energy. The truth is that Europe has performed less well on carbon dioxide since the late 1990s than the United States -- and Europe is inside Kyoto and has an emissions trading scheme.”
Dieter Helm, energy economist, Oxford University, October 2007

So Ken Newcombe of yester-year …

Versus: The new Ken Newcombe from earlier in
2008…

“I'm not at all convinced from what we've seen internationally that a cap and trade regime and a price on carbon is going to motivate investment in truly transformational technologies.”
--Goldman Sachs, Carbon Head, Ken Newcombe, 17 Jan. 2008,
To Carbon Policy Forum in New York.

Re-Meet the even newer still Ken Newcombe from later in 2008…

“We are thrilled to be trading on the CCFE [Chicago Climate Futures Exchange] and supporting the pioneering efforts of the Chicago Climate Exchange.”
-- Ken Newcombe, CEO of C-Quest Capital LLC,

19 November 2008.

“Carbon trading may have been the
answer once but not any more... It will just take too long to achieve anything, and we no longer have the luxury of time.

”

--Professor Kevin Anderson, Director of the UK’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Discussion at the Royal Society, October 2008

“So far, the European market has been a costly mistake…The Kyoto Protocol period is almost a lost decade.”
--Catrinus Jepma, Professor of Energy & Sustainability, University of Groningen, The Netherlands, 5 Nov. 2007

Just How Much?

One data point…

Foundations, False Solutions & CO2 Markets
• Joyce Foundation $347,600 in 2000 - CCX • Joyce Foundation $760,100 in 2001 - NW Kellog School for CCX
• …by April 2008 - Environmental Data Services (ENDS) claims that offset buyers should avoid credits emanating from the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), the New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme (NGACs) and Renewable Energy Credit projects, on the grounds that they were not developed specifically as offset schemes and as such do not adhere to the most robust offset criteria.

• As of 25 Sept 2009
CCX down 90%…

WHAT WILL COME TOMORROW…

Resistance is Fertile…?

Climate Justice & The Next 69 days…

On the road to Copenhagen… Two Axes

The First Axis
• • • • • • Big fossil fuel-using companies Banks, hedge funds, traders Hegemonic science and scientists & large-NGOs Consultancies (CDM verifiers, etc.) Corporate “citizens” in Southern countries Governments (that want to delay… or go slow…)

The Second Axis: Resistance
• •
Emerging, global climate justice movement People fighting fossil fuel developments People struggling against companies benefiting from false solutions: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), REDD, & offset-styled-stuff Local & particular knowledge of low-carbon technologies & social organization Renewable energy movements Energy democracy & sovereignty

•

•

What’s coming from the First Axis… In the form of ACES, etc…

RECALL: The Overview
HR 2454 The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 • Passed the House 219-212 on June 26th after 3 months of hearings and revisions • Senate EPW committee hearings commenced this week • Senate floor vote as early as mid-September
What HR 2454 does:  A clean energy title, designed both to set new standards for current types of power generation and to accelerate development and deployment of clean energy technologies such as renewables, energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage.    An efficiency title that provides funding for energy efficiency programs, and the setting of stronger building codes and product efficiency standards. A cap and trade program that sets mandatory caps on 87% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including the electric power and oil and gas sectors, and heavy industry. Measures designed to ease the transition into a low carbon economy by providing assistance to those impacted by a cap including industry, affected sectors of America’s workforce, and low income households; these also include support for international climate change programs.

Key issues: • Green Jobs…Any? Enough? • Allowance distribution -- Who bears the costs?) • Offsets - Rules, who’s in charge, limits…?) • International engagement, trade and competitiveness…? • Targets…??

Pollution targets inadequate
• 15-18% below 2005 levels by 2020 and 73-75% under 2005 levels by 2050 are inadequate (= 1-4% under 1990 levels by 2020 and 68-71% below 1990 levels by 2050) • Targets contemplated for industrialized countries in the international negotiations are 25-40% under 1990 levels by 2020 and at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. • Small Island States, calling for >>45% below 1990 levels by 2020 for industrialized countries. “1.5º to stay alive”

And also…

• Bill lacks integrity by relying on huge number of carbon offsets • Renewable targets not strong enough • Dirty energy qualifies as “renewable” • Taxes households to pay for unproven and costly “Carbon capture & storage” • Bill gives at least 60-90% of pollution permits away for free • Allocations & funding for international obligations is underfunded • Bill opens up carbon derivatives market in U.S. … part of the biggest CO2 mkt...

Second Axis…
(Two Paths)

Two NGO Tendencies…

On the one hand…

Select Grass-top/Astro-turf NGO Offerings…

• John Bennett Executive Director, Climate Action Network: “Our acceptance of emission trading has secured us significant allies in the Canadian business community.”

Select Grass-top/Astro-turf NGO Offerings…
• Matthew Bramley, Director, Climate Change, Pembina Institute, CAN Member: “Those of us who do think there is a place for [“an embrace of market mechanisms”] accept that markets involve people making and trying to maximize profits. Obviously regulators must play a strong role to prevent abuses. But I don't accept that making profits out of emisisons trading is necessarily an abuse. The point I was trying to make was that profit-making opportunities resulting from

GHG reduction policies widen the constituency for such policies, thereby making their implementation more likely.”

New Revolving Door NGO Bird Flu I-4me-UR2
FOE, Greenpeace, WWF  Trading Houses, consultancies, etc.  Maintain CAN-International ties  Negotiate for Countries/Parties

WAR ROOM!
• 18 Sept - The redubbed: “Clean Energy Works” (CEW)

Campaign Launches; -- a coalition of environmental, labor, veteran and hunting and fishing advocacy groups.
• Support a bill… any bill? Even one defined by “pixie dust” • Support Pricing Carbon, preferably with a carbon market

On the other hand…

The Alternative NGO Tendency…

Fighting for Climate Justice, Globally: Den Haag to Bali to Poznan & Beyond

Resistance inside CA, USA
(from the US) 19 February 2008

RADICAL NEW AGENDA NEEDED TO ACHIEVE CLIMATE JUSTICE Poznan statement from the Climate Justice Now! Network 12 December 2008
PART I Achieving low carbon economies, without resorting to offsetting and false solutions such as nuclear energy and "clean coal", while protecting the rights of those affected by the transition, especially workers. · · · Keeping fossil fuels in the ground. Implementing people's food and energy sovereignty. Guaranteeing community control of natural resources.

·
· ·

Re-localisation of production and consumption, prioritising local markets
Full recognition of Indigenous Peoples, peasant and local community rights, Democratically controlled clean renewable energy.

· Rights based resource conservation that enforces indigenous land rights and promotes peoples sovereignty and public ownership over energy, forests, seeds, land and water
· Ending deforestation and its underlying causes.

RADICAL NEW AGENDA NEEDED TO ACHIEVE CLIMATE JUSTICE Poznan statement from the Climate Justice Now! Network 12 December 2008 PART II · · Ending excessive consumption by elites in the North and in the South. Massive investment in public transport

· Ensuring gender justice by recognising existing gender injustices and involving women in decision making. · Canceling illegitimate debts claimed by northern governments and IFIs. The illegitimacy of these debts is underscored by the much greater historical, social and ecological debts owed to people of the South.

THANKS! PLEASE BE IN TOUCH… Dr. Michael Dorsey, Dartmouth College michael.dorsey@dartmouth.edu (Subject: COP15-HELP)

Dr. Michael Dorsey, Dartmouth College Asst. Professor of Global Environmental Policy michael.dorsey@dartmouth.edu
• “Climate Knowledge and Power: Tales of Skeptic Tanks, Weather Gods and Sagas for Climate (in)Justice”, Capitalism, Nature, Socialism (CNS), Vol. 18, No. 2, June 2007

• Dorsey, Michael K. 2008. “The African American Climate Change Crisis: Quiet Nightmare or Subtle Opportunity?” Focus Magazine, January/February.
•Dorsey, M.K. 2007. “Green Market Hustlers,” Foreign Policy In Focus, June 19 (Washington, DC). •Dorsey, M. K. 2007 Carbon Trading Won’t Work. LA Times. • Erion, G. C. S. and M. K. Dorsey. 2005. Montreal 2005 Climate Change Conference: Neoliberal BirdFlu Infects Climate Talks. The Bullet. •Dorsey, Michael K. 2005. Conservation, collusion and capital. Anthropology News Vol. 46, No. 7 (October), pp. 45-46. • Lohmann, Larry, Jutta Kill, Graham Erion and Michael K. Dorsey. 2005. “Is following the American pollution trading model a recipe for injustice in global carbon markets?” in P. Bond and R. Dada (eds.) Trouble in the Air: Global Warming and the Privatised Atmosphere (Durban, South Africa and Amsterdam, The Netherlands: University of KwaZulu Natal Press and Transnational Institute Press), pp. 149-86.

“If you are the big tree,We are the small axe --Sharpened to cut you down, (well sharp)” --Bob Marley


				
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Description: A talk on carbon markets and the counterveiling battle for climate justice.