RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES
Ray Leonard YUKOS Uppsala, May 22, 2001
Factors to consider
• • • • Existing Reserves Production Capability Export Capability Future Discoveries
New outlook for oil reserves in Russia and Middle East: reality or political numbers game?
Russia & Russian companies’ oil reserves
100 90 80 70 60 50 46.5 40.2
1988 Middle East (OPEC) oil reserves leap
(bn bbl)
700 600 500
(bn bbl)
93
81.8
634
40
30 20 10
400
300
360
0
200
100 0
* LUK, YUKOS, SurgutNG,TNK
** 4 with Onako + Sidanco, Rosneft,
1987
1988
Oil Equivalent Reserves
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Middle East Russia and Caspian Other OPEC Non OPEC exporters
Oil Gas BO
RUSSIAN AND CASPIAN PRODUCTION COMPARED TO WORLD PRODUCTION
16,0
14,0
Caspian Russian % WORLD Production 19,3 0,8 15,2 3,5
25,0
20,0
12,0
10,0
16,5 0,9
15,0
8,0
9,4
6,0
1,1 10,8 10,5
10,0
0,7 10,8 8,8 6,9 5,8
4,0
5,0
2,0
0,0
0,0
1986
1991
1996
2001
2010
% World Production
mmbo/d
TCF GAS
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1,69 2,93 3,74 22,59 19,06 20,47 20,47 4,87 0,07 1,94 1,41 1,06 3,88 2,82 2,12 5,82
9
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
RUSSIAN OFFSHORE
RUSSIA CURRENT PRODUCTION AREAS
CENTRAL ASIA
EAST SIBERIA
YUKOS PRODUCTION
220,000
50
200,000
58
70
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
2000
2001
2002
YUKOS PRODUCTION
110
Yearly Production, million tons
100 90 80 70 60 50 40
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Average daily rate per new well
by Russian oil companies in 2001
80,0
75,4
70,0
60,0
58,0
50,0
t/d
40,0
30,0
27,7 24,2 22,3 21,3 19,7 22,4 18,5 12,8
20,0
10,0
8,3 4,0
0,0
YUKOS
Sibneft
ONAKO SIDANCO
Lukoil TNK
Slavneft
Surgutneftegas Rosneft
Tatneft Total
Bashneft
FSU oil is competitive on the world market
Worldwide full-cycle upstream cost* of oil in 2001
$/bbl
Angola
16
Including Government expenses USA, Mexican Gulf (deep)
USA, stripper wells Venezuela(conv)
12
USA onshore
8
Russia
Western Siberia
China (onshore) Western Canada Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Brasil Mexico
North Sea
Venezuela(x-heavy)
Other Latin America
4
Iran UAE Iraq
USA, Alaska
Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Nigeria
Best Companies**
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Reserves, bln.bbl
* - finding, development and production excl. transportation and taxes (CERA,Sept. 2001)
** - 2001 finding, development and production cost –3.7 $/bbl,
Other
OIL EXPORT ROUTES
GAS EXPORT ROUTES
Future Potential Reserves
250 200 150 100 50 0 Russia and Caspian Middle East Deep Water Oil Gas Total BOE
EXPLORATION MATURITY
Potential of Russian Shelf
• Seven major basins, each equal to or larger than the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea • Extensions of producing trends in Pechora Sea, Kara Sea and Sea of Okhotsk • Thick sedimentary basins with all elements for hydrocarbon accumulations in other Arctic and Pacific Basins
SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2000-2010
W.EUROPE CONSUMPTION
16
15 MMBOD
2,0 3,0 3,0 7,0
16 MMBOD
3,0 4,0 4,0 5,0 RUSSIA+CASPIAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EUROPE
mmbod
OTHER RUSSIA+CASPIAN MIDDLE EAST AFRICA
RU
US CONSUMPTION
25
12 8 4 0
22 MMBOD 20 MMBOD
1,0 2,5 2,5 6,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0
20 15 10 5 0
2000
2010
mmbod
WEST HEMISPHERE USA
EAST ASIA CONSUMPTION
8,0
7,0
30 25
24 MMBOD 18 MMBOD
1,0 2,0 1,0 OTHER RUSSIA+CASPIAN 16,0 AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EAST ASIA 6,0 5,0
2000
2010
mmbod
20 15 10 5 0
11,0
2000
2010
CONCLUSIONS
• Russian oil reserves are probably in the range of 90-105 Billion barrels • These reserves will be capable of sustaining an additional 35% increase over current levels (7.5 MMBOD) for an extended period • New export oil and gas pipelines will allow additional Caspian oil to be marketed and supply Russian oil and gas to the Far East • A combination of mature, developing and frontier exploration can add an estimated 40-50 billion barrels and larger amounts of natural gas • Russian and Caspian oil exports will reach the level of one half of the Middle East by 2010 • Russian gas reserves allow a significant increase from current production and will assume increasing importance as world production eventually peaks and begins to decline