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Developing CSTs for the European Railway System - Intlrailsafety Powered By Docstoc
					R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System




                    Developing Common Safety Targets
                     for the European Railway System

          Roberto Piazza, Peter Mihm and Christophe Cassir

                      IRSC, Dublin, 23 October 2006




IRSC 2006, Dublin                  n° 1                23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir                      The legal bases for
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                        developing CSTs at EU level

    Treaty establishing the European Community, in particular Article 71§1.c:
     “1. For the purpose of implementing Article 70 (common transport policy at
     EC level), and taking into account the distinctive features of transport, the
     Council shall (…) lay down:
     …
     (c) measures to improve transport safety;
     …
     “
    Directive 2004/49/EC, which, on the other hand, acknowledges that safety
     levels in the Community rail system are generally high, in particular
     compared to road transport, and requires:
     - that current safety performance of rail is not reduced in any Member State
     - that CSTs are developed, expressed in risk acceptance criteria
     (1st set of CSTs to be adopted by the European Commission by end of April
     2009 - Article 7)

    Mandate of the European Commission to the European Railway Agency –
     issued 16/12/2005
     (1st set of CSTs to be submitted to the European Commission by end of
     September 2008)
IRSC 2006, Dublin                       n° 2                         23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir          Main aims of establishing
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                    CSTs at EU level


    Limit differentiation of national policies in the field of
     safety targeting, as this may hinder the competitive
     potential of railway transport with respect to other
     transport modes by fragmenting the EU market

    Harmonise the way safety is monitored and reduce
     existing differentiation in the safety performance of
     railway systems in Member States

    Avoid that “safety arguments” are unduly used by
     Member States for creating barriers to the entry into
     the respective national markets by newcomers

IRSC 2006, Dublin               n° 3                         23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the         Two main options for safety targeting
European Railway System


  Option  1: targeting the individual/collective risk of
   incurring into a given category of consequences of a
   given category of accidents.
  Option 2: targeting the occurrence of possible

    causes of accidents (i.e. broken rails/axles/wheels,
    signal failures, n. of SPADs, etc.).
    Dir.2004/49/EC (Art.7) mandates the development of CSTs
    expressed in terms of risk acceptance criteria for
    individuals and the society as a whole (i.e. option 1).
    Option 2 may be used for complementary targets and/or
    for 2nd set of CSTs.
IRSC 2006, Dublin                 n° 4                      23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir   The approach taken by the European
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System         Railway Agency for developing CSTs


    A two step approach:

       First develop a quantitative baseline for
        understanding the level of safety performance of
        railway transport in the different Member States,
        expressed in terms of risk to individuals + societal
        risk (National Reference Values - NRVs)

       Then derive CSTs from NRVs, by iteratively setting
        targets and checking the outcomes of the impact
        analysis, until an optimum is reached


IRSC 2006, Dublin                  n° 5                    23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                               How many NRVs and CSTs ?

                                                                                   Passengers
                        At least 6 at MS
                              level                                                    Staff
                       (according to Art.7 SD)
                                                                              Level Crossing Users
    CSTs                         +
                       CSTs for parts of the                                          Others
                         railway system
                                                                              Unauthorised persons
                         (where feasible)                                      on railway premises
                                                                                       +
                                                                                  Societal Risks
                    One NRV for:
                    - each correspondent CST
                    - each MS, excepted MS                      At least 6 (NRVs) x 23 (MSs) = 138 NRVs
    NRVs
                    without railway systems (Malta
                    and Cyprus) = 23                                                   +
                                                            NRVs for parts of the railway system (where feasible)


IRSC 2006, Dublin                                    n° 6                                       23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                                  How to measure NRVs and CSTs ?



Measurement:

       CSTs                     Expressed in                        Will have the same
                               terms of RISK                         unit of measure
                               ACCEPTANCE                          which is adopted for
       NRVs                      CRITERIA                            quantifying RISK

Dimensional Definition:
                    Frequency of the event                  Consequences of the
   RISK                                                                                   [ Consequences /
                                   Unit of Time                   event
    of a     = [ n.of events /                      ] X                               =     Unit of Time
                                   Unit of Product (*)                                                     ]
   given                                                         [ Consequences /
                                                                                            Unit of Product
   event            (*) train*km, pax*km, tonn*km                     event ]




IRSC 2006, Dublin                                         n° 7                               23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir               NRVs: the list of formulae and scaling factors
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                     which has been selected by the CST WG
                                                                                                                 Preferred scaling
 Category at risk                             Preferred complete formulae
                                                                                                                      factors
                    NRV     Number of pax fatalities and weighted serious injuries per year arising from      Passenger train*km per
                    1.1     significant accidents / n. of passenger train*km per year                         year
 Passengers
                    NRV     Number of pax fatalities and weighted serious injuries per year arising from      Passenger*km per year
                    1.2     significant accidents / n. of passenger*km per year
                            Number of employee fatalities and weighted serious injuries per year arising
 Employees          NRV 2                                                                                     Train*km per year
                            from significant accidents / n. of train*km per year
                                                                                                              Train*km per year per LC
 Level crossing             Number of level-crossing user fatalities and weighted serious injuries per
                    NRV 3                                                                                     (To be further discussed by
 users                      year arising from significant accidents / (n. of Train*km per year / n. of LCs)   a specific Taskforce)

                            Yearly number of fatalities and weighted serious injuries of persons
 Others             NRV 4   belonging to the category “others” arising from significant accidents / n. of     Train*km per year
                            train*km per year
 Unauthorised
                            Number of fatalities and weighted serious injuries of unauthorised persons
 persons on
                    NRV 5   on railway premises per year arising from significant accidents / n. of           Train*km per year
 railway
                            train*km per year
 premises

 Whole                      Number of fatalities and weighted serious injuries to persons per year
                    NRV 6                                                                                     Train*km per year
 society                    arising from SIGNIFICANT ACCIDENTS / n.of train*km per year


IRSC 2006, Dublin                                                n° 8                                               23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System             NRVs, CSTs and data feeding

• NRV and CST for passengers risk NRV1;CST1       Common Safety Indicators
                                                          for 1st set, only data from 2006

• NRV and CST for staff risk  NRV2;CST2

• NRV and CST for
  level crossing users risk NRV3;CST3
                                                            EUROSTAT data
                                                   for 1st set, full data from 2004, 2005, 2006 +
• NRV and CST for                                   partial data (w/o production data) from 2007
  unauthorised persons risk NRV4;CST4

• NRV and CST for risk to others NRV5;CST5
                                                                   Others
                                                         Voluntary time series from MS
• NRV and CST for societal risk  NRV6;CST6           Extra normalisation (production) data



  NRVs & CSTs for parts of the railway             Will specific data be available ?
  system as defined by Article 3e of Dir.          If not, careful assumptions and
  2004/49/EC                                          estimates will be necessary


IRSC 2006, Dublin                           n° 9                               23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir                                                                        Data for Common Safety Indicators
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                                                                              as defined by Annex I of the safety Directive


                                                                                                                                                        Issues:




                                                                                                                    Unauthorised persons
                              Number of accidents




                                                                                         Level crossing users
                                                                                                                                                         The use of national definitions
                                                                                                                                                           for indicators (at least for 2006




                                                                         Employees
                                                        Passengers
                                                                                                                                                           annual safety report) poses a




                                                                                                                                               Others
                                                                                                                                                           limit on the comparability of
                                                                                                                                                           data for different MSs
                                                    K         SI     K         SI    K                 SI       K               SI         K      SI
                                                                                                                                                         Data will be available only for
Collisions
                                                                                                                                                           2006 onwards
Derailments
Level-crossing accidents

Accidents to persons caused
by rolling stock in motion

Fires in rolling stock
Others
Suicides                                                                                                                                                CST6 ?
Total (excluding suicides)
Total relative to train km
(excluding suicides)

  K = Killed
  SI = Seriously Injured                            CST1 CST2 CST3 CST4 CST5

IRSC 2006, Dublin                                                                                                                          n° 10                                23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                                                                                            EUROSTAT data




                                       Number of accidents
                                                                                                                       Issues:
                                                                                                                        Uncertainty for CST3, CST4, CST5
                                                                                                                        Need to check that suicides data




                                                                                  Employees
                                                                 Passengers
                                                                                                                          are not included in “ Accidents to




                                                                                                  Others
                                                                                                                          persons caused by RS in motion”
                                                             K         SI     K         SI    K       SI
                                                                                                              ~CST5
 Collisions
 Derailments
 Level-crossing accidents
                                                                                                               ~CST3
 Accidents to persons caused by
 rolling stock in motion

 Fires in rolling stock                                                                                        ~CST4
 Others
 Unknown

 Total

 Total relative to train(or pass) km                                                                          CST6 ?
  K = Killed
  SI = Seriously Injured                               CST1                       CST2

IRSC 2006, Dublin                                                                                          n° 11                               23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir   Commonalities amongst Member States:
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System         the most exposed categories of individuals
    The most exposed category of individuals in 2004 was the category
    « others » (i.e. not passengers, nor employees)
                                (year 2004 – Source: Eurostat)




IRSC 2006, Dublin                         n° 12                    23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir    Commonalities amongst Member States:
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System          accidents causing the majority of fatalities
    Most of the fatalities in 2004 were due to « accidents at level crossings »
    and to « individual accidents to persons caused by RS in motion »
                                (year 2004 – Source: Eurostat)




IRSC 2006, Dublin                          n° 13                        23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir                     The differentiation of statistical data amongst
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                           European Countries: a first problem to face

     The N.of fatalities per Mio train*km caused by railway accidents in countries of
     the European area [(EU + EEA) Member States] in 2004 and 2005 lied in a range
     0,05  3 (510E-8  310E-6 Fatalities/train*km), which means that there was a
     variation of two orders of magnitude between the best and the worst
     performing MS.
                         N.of fatalities per Mio train*km caused by railway accidents in countries of the European area
                                             [(EU + EEA) Member States + Turkey] - years 2004 and 2005
                                   (source EUROSTAT - data for 2005 from DK, DE, ES, FR, IE, LU, NL, NO, PT, SE and UK not available)



 6

 5                                                                                                                                                              Average
                                                                                                                                                                value for:
 4                                                                                                                                                            2004 = 0,92
                                                                                                                                                              2005 = 1,13
                                                                                                                                                               (excluding
 3                                                                                                                                                            zero values)

 2

 1

 0
     BE   CZ   DK   DE   EE   GR     ES      FR     IE      IT    LV      LT     LU     HU     NL     AT      PL     PT     SI     SK   FI   SE     UK   TR    NO


                                                                               2004     2005



IRSC 2006, Dublin                                                               n° 14                                                             23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir     The differentiation of statistical data amongst
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System           European Countries: a first problem to face
    Also for the number of accidents per million train*km there was a variation of
    two orders of magnitude between the best and the worst performing MS
    (0,5  40) .
                                (year 2004 – Source: Eurostat)




IRSC 2006, Dublin                            n° 15                         23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir                          The differentiation of statistical data amongst
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                                European Countries: a first problem to face


    …same order of magnitude of variation for the number of passenger
    fatalities per billion train*km (0,06  3).


                            Passenger fatalities per Bln passenger*km from railway acc.in countries of the European area
                                              [(EU + EEA) member States + Turkey] - years 2004 and 2005
                                 (source EUROSTAT - data for 2004 from LT and SI n.a.; data for 2005 from DK, DE, LT, PT, SI and UK n.a.)


   10
    9
                                                                                                                                                                  Average
    8                                                                                                                                                             value for
    7                                                                                                                                                             2004 and
    6                                                                                                                                                               2005
                                                                                                                                                                 (excluding
    5
                                                                                                                                                                zero values):
    4                                                                                                                                                               1,00
    3
    2
    1
    0
        BE   CZ   DK   DE   EE    GR    ES     FR     IE      IT    LV      LT    LU     HU      NL    AT     PL     PT      SI    SK       FI   SE   UK   TR     NO


                                                                                 2004     2005



IRSC 2006, Dublin                                                                n° 16                                                                23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the         Data insufficiency: a second problem to face
European Railway System



          Coping with data insufficiency
         It is evident from Eurostat data for 2004 and 2005 that
          there are significant differences in safety performance
          between MSs (two orders of magnitude variation of total
          FWI/train*km amongst Member States, as already
          shown)
         There is a need to analyse why these large differences
          occur and also to study additional data to see how
          annual fluctuations might influence these results
         A longer time series of national data would serve to
          average out some of the effects of the high-consequence
          low-frequence events and also to give more significance
          to the data for small Member States with few events


IRSC 2006, Dublin                       n° 17                      23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the                                                                                             Comparability analysis of data
European Railway System


                                          Comparability analysis: National time series vs. Eurostat time series
                                          Case 1:                consistency of the two different time series
                                          Case 2:                inconsistency of the two different time series

                                                  Case 1:                                                                                                                    Case 2:
                                          4,5                                                                                                                        4,5




                                           4
                                                                                                                                                                      4


                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Eurostat
                                                                                                                                                                     3,5
                                          3,5


                                                                                               Eurostat
                                                                                                                                                                      3




                                                                                                                              FWI (per million passenger train km)
                                           3
   FWI (per million passenger train km)




                                                                                                                                                                     2,5
                                          2,5



                                                                                                                                                                      2
                                           2



                                                                                                                                                                     1,5
                                          1,5



                                                                                                                                                                      1
                                           1



                                                                                                                                                                     0,5
                                          0,5



                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                      1988     1990   1992   1994   1996          1998    2000      2002    2004   2006
                                           1988     1990   1992    1994   1996          1998   2000   2002   2004    2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Year
                                                                                 Year




IRSC 2006, Dublin                                                                                                           n° 18                                                                                                          23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the                                         Treatment of data
European Railway System


     Averaging and forecasting techniques:
        Moving averages, exponential smoothing, trend lines etc
        Objective is to find NRVs less sensitive to annual random fluctuations and
         influence from low frequency/high impact accidents
        The approach may also facilitate setting targets for annual risk reduction

                     4,5
              Risk




                      4                                                                             Outcome of
                                                                                                   averaging and
                     3,5                                                                             smoothing

                      3


                                                                                                    Estimated
                     2,5
                                                                                                    long term
                                                                   f
                      2                                                                               trend

                     1,5

                                                                                                    Raw data
                      1



                     0,5



                      0
                      1988   1990   1992   1994   1996          1998   2000   2002   2004   2006
                                                         Year


IRSC 2006, Dublin                                        n° 19                                     23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir   A descending long-term trend for
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System         passenger fatalities




IRSC 2006, Dublin                   n° 20                    23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir          Common Safety Targets – how to set up 1st set of
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                CSTs from NRVs ?




 Lowest impact CST

                                                                             ΔR D            ΔR F    NRVs =
 Optimal impact CST                                                                                  National
 (best overall « Cost /                                                                              Reference Values
 Benefit » ratio ?)                                                                                  of safety
                                                                                                     performance for
 Weighted impact CST                                                                                 each MS

                                                       MS C


                                                                      MS D




                                                                                              MS G
                                                MS B




                                                                                      MS F
                                         MS A




                                                                               MS E
 Highest impact CST
                          Risk




                           ΔRX   = range of tolerance for MS X in a given time horizon
                     (will a range of tolerance for NRVs also have to be considered for each MS ?
                              It will depend on the approach finally adopted for setting CSTs)

IRSC 2006, Dublin                                             n° 21                                   23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir                                             ERA’s CST WG: overall flowchart of
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System                                                   activities and deliverables
  5-year                1. Progress      Annotated        2. Progress      Preliminary                                  Recommendation laying down the 1st set      Guidelines for
Workcalendar               report        structure           report           Draft                                      of CSTs + accompanying report + draft      use of 1st set
                                                                                                                           guidelines for use of 1st set of CSTs      of CSTs

             12/05             11/06       01/07                 11/07         01/08                     07/08                                              09/08                 04/09


  WG members           Inputs from WG members                             Inputs from WG members
   comments            Existing safety targets; definitions, rules &      Time series / Pilot values at MS                       Inputs
                       prodedures for use at MS and Company               and Company level, additional
                       level (operators, infrastructure manager, …)       information for benchmarking, …




                                                                                                        Consultation of
                                                                                                        social partners
                     Pré-conditions            Setting values for 1st set of
                     Development of a                     CSTs
                     method for setting up                                               Draft of
                     1st set of CSTs                                                                                                          Delivery of       Adoption by EC
  Working plan                                                                         recommen-        Information of          Final
                                                                                                                                             Recommenda          and Article 21
   strategy          Survey existing Safety                                            dation for 1st   NSA Network          adjustment
                                                                                                                                                 tion             committee
                     targets                                                           set of CSTs
                                                    Guidance and rules /
                     Definition of                 procedures for use and
                     measurement units             enforcement of 1st set of
                                                           CSTs

                                                                                                          Translation



                                             Drafting                                   Drafting
                                                                  Drafting
                                          Structure and                                Recommen-
                                                               Technical Part
                                          General part                                   dation


                                                                                        Drafting Guideline for use of 1st set of CSTs



                         Elaboration of the recommendation for 1st set of CSTs

IRSC 2006, Dublin                                                                        n° 22                                                              23 October 2006
R.Piazza, P.Mihm and C.Cassir
Developing CSTs for the
European Railway System




                                Thank you for your attention!




IRSC 2006, Dublin                            n° 23              23 October 2006

				
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