PowerPoint Presentation by gMavs96

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 11

									      Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
         Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

     Data Infilling                                                            Using only the time serie itself

                                            Infilling
           25
                                                                                              Lin. Interpolation
           20
                                                                                              -Very short time series
                                                                                              -No input
Q [m3/s]




           15

           10

           5

            0
           01-Jan-   20-Feb-   11-Apr-   31-May- 20-Jul-63 08-Sep-        28-Oct-   17-Dec-
              63       63        63         63                63            63         63

                                  Original data         Linear interpolation



                                     +
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling                                                        Using only the time serie itself
                                         Infilling
             25                                                                      Recession
             20
                                                                                     - weeks-months
  Q [m3/s]




             15
                                                                                     -Dry period, baseflow
             10

             5

              0
             01-Jan- 20-Feb- 11-Apr- 31-May-    20-Jul-    08-Sep- 28-Oct- 17-Dec-
                63     63      63       63        63          63     63       63

                                   Original data          Recession


                                                                t
                                Qt  Qt -1  e                   k



                                 K from analysis baseflow within time series
                                 K from trial and error
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling                                                       Using only the time serie itself
                                        Infilling
            25                                                                    Autoregression
            20                                                                    -Low dynamic
                                                                                  -Not for peak events
 Q [m3/s]




            15

            10

            5

             0
            01-Jan- 20-Feb- 11-Apr- 31-May-     20-Jul- 08-Sep- 28-Oct- 17-Dec-
               63     63      63       63         63       63     63       63

                                Original data       Autoregression




                                                                        Statistical relation Q and P(t)
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling                                                          Using only the time serie itself
                                           Infilling
            30                                                                  Moving average +
            25
                                                                                Autoregression
            20
 Q [m3/s]




            15

            10                                                                  Determine parameters
             5                                                                  using best fit!
              0
            01-Jan-61     16-May-62             28-Sep-63         09-Feb-65     - Graphically
                                      Original data    MA-LI-AR                 - RMSE




                        Average Q over ?? days
  Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
     Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling                                                     Using only the time serie itself
                                      Infilling
           25                                                                  Moving average +
           20                                                                  Autoregression
                                                                               -Periodicity
Q [m3/s]




           15

           10
                                                                               -Seasonality
           5

            0
           01-Jan- 20-Feb- 11-Apr- 31-May-   20-Jul- 08-Sep- 28-Oct- 17-Dec-
              63     63      63       63       63       63     63       63

                                 Original data     MA-LI-AR




                      Average Q over ?? days
                                                    Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
                                                       Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

                                                  Data Infilling                                                                                                                                          Using external data
                    30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Linear regression
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               180
                    25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  between 2 or more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               160


                    20                                                                                                                                                                                            stations     140
Q Hagafiro [m3/s]




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q Mpanga [m3/s]
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               120

                    15                                                                                                                                                                                            Flow-flow relation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               80
                    10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               60


                    5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40                            y = 0.0921x - 0.4293
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               20

                    0                                                                                                                                                                                                          0                             R2 = 0.5495
                         Jan/1961

                                    Jan/1962

                                               Jan/1963

                                                          Jan/1964

                                                                     Jan/1965

                                                                                Jan/1966

                                                                                           Jan/1967

                                                                                                      Jan/1968

                                                                                                                 Jan/1969

                                                                                                                            Jan/1970

                                                                                                                                        Jan/1971

                                                                                                                                                   Jan/1972

                                                                                                                                                              Jan/1973

                                                                                                                                                                         Jan/1974

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan/1975

                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan/1976

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan/1977
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30



                                                                                                         Hagafiro                      Mpanga                                                                         25



                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20                                                                 y = 0.0921x - 0.4293
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              R = 0.5495


                                                                                                                                                                                                                      15



                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5



                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0         20                 40   60   80   100   120   140   160      180       200
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling                                                                  Using external data
                                          Infilling
            25                                                                          Linear regression
            20
                                                                                        between 2 or more
            15
                                                                                        stations
 Q [m3/s]




            10
                                                                                        Flow-flow relation
            5


             0                                                                           y = 0.0921x - 0.4293
            01-Jan- 20-Feb- 11-Apr- 31-May-      20-Jul-   08-Sep- 28-Oct- 17-Dec-
               63     63      63       63          63        63      63       63
                                                                                        R2 = 0.5495
                          Original data        Flow -Flow linear relationship
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling                Using external data

Flow-flow relation
Simplified form using ratio of catchment areas


Area Hagafiro = 331 km2
Area Mpanga = 2585 km2
                                    y = 0.0921x - 0.4293
QHagafiro = Q Mpanga * (331/2585)
QHagafiro = Q Mpanga * 0.128
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling             Using external data

                              Linear regression between
                              2 or more stations
                              Flow-flow relation




                                   Multiple linear
                                   regression between 2
                                   or more Q, P stations
                                   Q - (P, Q) relation
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling: Example Kenia

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

  0
12/09/1939 24/01/1941 08/06/1942 21/10/1943 04/03/1945 17/07/1946
Water Resources Assessment in sub-Saharan Africa:
   Prediction in ungauged or data scarce basins

Data Infilling: Example Kenia
1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

 800

 600

 400

 200

   0
 12/09/1939   24/01/1941   08/06/1942   21/10/1943   04/03/1945   17/07/1946

								
To top