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					BATTLEGROUNDS:	
  
An	
  in-­‐depth	
  look	
  at	
  swing	
  state	
  trends	
  
for	
  the	
  2012	
  presiden7al	
  elec7on	
  
               Philip Garland, Ph.D., VP Methodology
               Dave Goldberg, CEO
               Liana Epstein, Ph.D., Senior Methodologist
               Annabell Suh
THE CHALLENGE

 You hear a lot in these presidential elections about
 “battleground” states, also known as “swing” states.


 Here at SurveyMonkey we wanted to know just how much
 these supposed swing states had swung over the past month.


 Are voter preferences in these states really as fickle as people
 think they are? Or do they stay constant?


                             Here’s what we found out…
  Some battleground states didn’t look
like fair fights at all, with one candidate
      clearly dominating the state…
FOCUS ON: COLORADO


SNAPSHOT:	
  Though	
  there	
  have	
  been	
  some	
  bumps	
  along	
  the	
     IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
way,	
  Obama	
  has	
  maintained	
  a	
  hearty	
  lead	
  over	
  Romney.	
      1.  Dueling	
   ads:	
   On	
   10/15	
   Romney	
   releases	
   a1ack	
  
                                                                                        ads	
   in	
   Colorado	
   blas8ng	
   Obama’s	
   claim	
   that	
   he	
  
                                                                                        has	
   improved	
   the	
   economy.	
   The	
   same	
   day	
   the	
  
                                                                                        Denver	
   Post	
   publishes	
   an	
   ar8cle	
   repor8ng	
   that	
  
                                                                                        economy	
  is	
  unlikely	
  to	
  improve.	
  A	
  dip	
  in	
  Obama’s	
  
                                                                                        support	
  numbers	
  follows.	
  
                                               3	
                                  2.  2nd	
   debate:	
   In	
   the	
   debate	
   on	
   10/16	
   Obama	
  
                                                                                        men8ons	
   the	
   recent	
   Aurora	
   shoo8ng,	
   but	
  
                                                                                        hedges	
  a	
  direct	
  ques8on	
  about	
  gun	
  control.	
  This	
  
                                                                                        seems	
  to	
  hurt	
  his	
  standing	
  in	
  Colorado,	
  contrary	
  
                       1	
   2	
                                    4	
                 to	
  his	
  surge	
  in	
  popularity	
  across	
  the	
  na8on.	
  
                                                                                    3.  3rd	
   debate:	
   No	
   gun	
   control	
   men8ons	
   in	
   the	
  
                                                                                        debate	
   on	
   10/22,	
   support	
   for	
   Obama	
   spikes	
  
                                                                                        slightly.	
  Romney’s	
  remains	
  unchanged.	
  
                                                                                    4.  Sandy	
   backlash:	
   On	
   10/29,	
   ex-­‐FEMA	
   Director	
  
                                                                                         Michael	
   Brown	
   cri8cizes	
   Obama’s	
   response	
   to	
  
                                                                                         Hurricane	
   Sandy	
   on	
   Colorado	
   radio.	
   He	
   also	
   talks	
  
                                                                                         up	
  Romney,	
  and	
  predicts	
  he	
  will	
  win	
  the	
  state.	
  
FOCUS ON: FLORIDA


   SNAPSHOT:	
  Romney	
  has	
  a	
  substan8al	
  lead	
  over	
  Obama.	
                   IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
                                                                                               	
  
   According	
  to	
  our	
  data,	
  Florida	
  is	
  not	
  a	
  ba1leground	
  state.	
     1.  2nd	
   debate:	
   A	
   microcosm	
   of	
  
                                                                                                   a	
   na8onal	
   trend,	
   Obama	
  
                                                                                                   “wins”	
   the	
   debate	
   on	
  
                                                                                                   10/16,	
   narrowing	
   the	
   gap	
  
                                                                                                   between	
   the	
   candidates	
  
                                                                                                   slightly.	
  
                                                                                               2.  3 r d	
   d e b a t e :	
   R o m n e y	
  
                                                                                                   emphasizes	
  crea8ng	
  energy	
  
                                                                                                   independence	
  in	
  the	
  U.S.,	
  a	
  
                              1	
                       2	
           3	
                          key	
   issue	
   in	
   Florida,	
   in	
   the	
  
                                                                                                   debate	
  on	
  10/22.	
  
                                                                                               3.  Speak	
   their	
   language:	
  
                                                                                                   Romney	
   releases	
   a	
   Spanish	
  
                                                                                                   language	
   commercial	
   on	
  
                                                                                                   10/25,	
   perhaps	
   hiZng	
  
                                                                                                   home	
   with	
   undecided	
  
                                                                                                   Hispanic	
  voters.	
  
FOCUS ON: PENNSYLVANIA

SNAPSHOT:	
  Obama	
  built	
  a	
  huge	
  lead	
  by	
  mid-­‐month,	
  which	
  dipped	
  a	
  bit	
  but	
  grew	
  again	
  at	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  
the	
  month,	
  mirroring	
  na8onal	
  trends.	
  The	
  fact	
  that	
  all	
  shi[s	
  in	
  vo8ng	
  preferences	
  in	
  Pennsylvania	
  can	
  
be	
   linked	
   to	
   na8onal,	
   rather	
   than	
   state-­‐level,	
   trends,	
   supports	
   the	
   idea	
   that	
   Pennsylvania	
   is	
   not	
   a	
  
ba1leground	
  state	
  in	
  the	
  2012	
  presiden8al	
  elec8on.	
  
                                                                                                            IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
                                                                                                            1.  Na7ve	
  son:	
  The	
  usual	
  post-­‐VP	
  debate	
  spike	
  
                                                                                                                a[er	
   10/11	
   is	
   in	
   full	
   effect	
   given	
   Biden’s	
  
                                                                                                                background—he	
   was	
   born	
   in	
   Scranton,	
  
                                                                                                                Pennsylvania.
                                                                                                            2.  3rd	
  presiden7al	
  debate:	
  Support	
  for	
  Romney	
  
                                                                                                                rises	
   a[er	
   the	
   final	
   presiden8al	
   debate	
   on	
  

                  1	
                                      2	
                               3	
                10/22,	
  while	
  support	
  for	
  Obama	
  took	
  a	
  dip.	
  
                                                                                                                This	
   is	
   likely	
   linked	
   to	
   Romney’s	
   focus	
   on	
  
                                                                                                                the	
   issue	
   of	
   job	
   crea8on,	
   a	
   key	
   issue	
   with	
  
                                                                                                                Pennsylvania	
  voters.	
  
                                                                                                            3.  Hurricane	
   Sandy:	
   As	
   in	
   many	
   other	
   swing	
  
                                                                                                                states,	
   the	
   combina8on	
   of	
   Chris	
   Chris8e’s	
  
                                                                                                                praise	
   of	
   Obama	
   and	
   the	
   repor8ng	
   of	
  
                                                                                                                Romney’s	
   past	
   comments	
   about	
   cuZng	
  
                                                                                                                FEMA	
  produce	
  a	
  posi8ve	
  bump	
  for	
  Obama	
  
                                                                                                                and	
  a	
  nega8ve	
  one	
  for	
  Romney.	
  
Others were true tossup states that
     swung back and forth…
FOCUS ON: MICHIGAN

 SNAPSHOT:	
  Obama	
  has	
  maintained	
  a	
  small	
  but	
  stable	
  lead	
  over	
                 IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
 Romney	
  and	
  is	
  pulling	
  away.	
  It	
  now	
  seems	
  a	
  sure	
  win	
  for	
  Obama.	
     1.  Na7ve	
  son:	
  A	
  PBS’s	
  documentary	
  about	
  
                                                                                                              Romney	
   airs	
   on	
   10/10	
   and	
   highlights	
  
                                                                                                              Romney’s	
   Detroit	
   background.	
   His	
  
                                                                                                              popularity	
  spikes.	
  
                                                                                                          2.  Cri7cal	
  aide:	
  On	
  10/15	
  a	
  former	
  aide	
  of	
  
                                                                                                              Romney’s	
   father	
   (who	
   was	
   the	
  
                                                                                                              governor	
   of	
   Michigan	
   from	
   1963-­‐1969),	
  
                                                                                                              cri8cizes	
  him.	
  The	
  gap	
  widens	
  slightly	
  in	
  
                                                                                                              Obama’s	
  favor.	
  
                                                                                                          3.  SuperPAC	
   Ads:	
   The	
   pro-­‐Romney	
   super	
  
                                                                                                               PAC,	
   “Restore	
   Our	
   Future”	
   buys	
   $1.6	
  
                                                                                                               million	
   in	
   ad	
   8me	
   in	
   Michigan	
   and	
  
                                                                                            4	
  
                                     2	
                  3	
                                                  launched	
  two	
  new	
  ads	
  on	
  10/23.	
  For	
  a	
  
                                                                                                               brief	
  moment,	
  Romney	
  is	
  ahead.	
  
                                                                                                          4.  Hurricane	
   Sandy:	
   As	
   in	
   many	
   other	
  
                                                                                                              swing	
   states,	
   the	
   combina8on	
   of	
   Chris	
  
               1	
                                                                                            Chris8e’s	
   praise	
   of	
   Obama	
   and	
   the	
  
                                                                                                              repor8ng	
   of	
   Romney’s	
   past	
   comments	
  
                                                                                                              about	
  cuZng	
  FEMA	
  produce	
  a	
  posi8ve	
  
                                                                                                              bump	
   for	
   Obama	
   and	
   a	
   nega8ve	
   one	
  
                                                                                                              for	
  Romney.	
  
FOCUS ON: IOWA

 SNAPSHOT:	
  Our	
  data	
  showed	
  a	
  8ght	
  race,	
  with	
  Obama	
  rising	
       IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
 slowly	
  and	
  then	
  plumme8ng	
  suddenly.	
  He	
  bounced	
  back	
  and	
           1.  Des	
   Moines	
   Register:	
   The	
   race	
   in	
   Iowa	
  
 now	
  it’s	
  anyone’s	
  game.	
                                                              suddenly	
   becomes	
   a	
   tossup	
   a[er	
   the	
  
                                                                                                 Des	
   Moines	
   Register	
   cri8cized	
   Obama	
  
                                                                                                 on	
   10/24	
   for	
   insis8ng	
   that	
   comments	
  
                                                                                                 he	
  made	
  to	
  the	
  newspaper	
  remain	
  off-­‐
                                                                                                 record.	
  	
  
                                                                                     3	
  
                                                                                             2.  Des	
   Moines	
   Register	
   strikes	
   again:	
   The	
  
                                                                                                 Register’s	
   endorsement	
   of	
   Romney	
   on	
  
                                                                                                 10/27	
   precedes	
   a	
   widening	
   of	
  
                                                                                                 Romney’s	
  lead	
  in	
  Iowa.	
  
                                                       1	
           2	
  
                                                                                             3.  Hurricane	
   Sandy:	
   The	
   jump	
   in	
   support	
  
                                                                                     3	
         for	
   Obama	
   here	
   is	
   a	
   microcosm	
   of	
   a	
  
                                                                                                 na8onal	
   trend	
   in	
   the	
   wake	
   of	
   Chris	
  
                                                                                                 Chris8e’s	
  praise	
  of	
  Obama’s	
  handling	
  of	
  
                                                                                                 Hurricane	
   Sandy	
   (10/29	
   onwards),	
   and	
  
                                                                                                 the	
   emergence	
   of	
   a	
   past	
   statement	
  
                                                                                                 from	
   Romney	
   that	
   he	
   wanted	
   to	
   cut	
  
                                                                                                 FEMA	
  (10/30	
  onwards).	
  
FOCUS ON: VIRGINIA

SNAPSHOT:	
  Romney	
  had	
  a	
  slim	
  lead	
  in	
  Virginia,	
  but	
  lost	
  it	
  mid-­‐   IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
month.	
  He’s	
  been	
  recovering	
  steadily	
  ever	
  since,	
  but	
  the	
  8de	
           1.  VP	
   debate:	
   A[er	
   the	
   debate	
   on	
   10/11,	
  
could	
  turn	
  against	
  him	
  again	
  at	
  any	
  moment.	
                                      support	
   for	
   Romney	
   jumps	
   while	
   support	
  
                                                                                                        for	
  Obama	
  plummets.	
  
                                                                                                    2.  “GoLa	
   Vote”:	
   Obama’s	
   “Go1a	
   Vote”	
   bus	
  
                                                                                                         tour	
   makes	
   mul8ple	
   stops	
   in	
   Virginia	
   on	
  
                                                                                                         the	
  15th,	
  drumming	
  up	
  support	
  for	
  Obama.	
  
                                                                                                    3.  Romney	
   rallies:	
   At	
   a	
   Virginia	
   rally	
   on	
   10/18,	
  
                                                                                                         Romney	
  issues	
  Obama	
  a	
  double	
  whammy:	
  
                                                                                                         first,	
  he	
  expresses	
  concern	
  about	
  Obama’s	
  
                                                                                                         cuts	
   in	
   defense	
   spending	
   (a	
   hot-­‐bu1on	
  
                                                                                                         issue	
   here),	
   and	
   then	
   he	
   raises	
   ques8ons	
  
                                               3	
                                                       about	
  Obama’s	
  religion.	
  
                                                                                                    4.  3rd	
   debate:	
   Romney	
   repeatedly	
   brings	
   up	
  
                 1	
              2	
                     4	
       5	
     6	
                          Obama’s	
   defense	
   spending	
   cuts	
   in	
   the	
  
                                                                                                         third	
   debate	
   and	
   the	
   gap	
   between	
   the	
  
                                                                                                         candidates	
  narrows	
  sharply.	
  
                                               3	
                                                  5.  Late	
  night:	
  A	
  na8onal	
  trend	
  is	
  at	
  work	
  here:	
  
                                                                                                         Obama	
   appears	
   on	
   The	
   Tonight	
   Show	
   on	
  
                                                                                                         10/24	
  and	
  his	
  numbers	
  get	
  a	
  boost.	
  
                                                                                                    6.  Sandy	
  backlash:	
  No	
  Hurricane	
  Sandy	
  bump	
  
                                                                                                         for	
   Obama	
   in	
   this	
   state.	
   Ever	
   since	
   Sandy	
  
                                                                                                         hit,	
   Virginia’s	
   have	
   flocked	
   to	
   Romney	
   is	
  
                                                                                                         droves.	
  	
  
FOCUS ON: WISCONSIN

SNAPSHOT:	
  Romney	
  had	
  an	
  early	
  lead	
  in	
  Wisconsin,	
  but	
  Obama	
     IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
has	
  surged	
  back.	
  Don’t	
  count	
  Romney	
  out	
  yet	
  though…	
               1.  Wisconsin	
  pride:	
  Wisconsinite	
  Paul	
  Ryan	
  makes	
  
                                                                                                his	
   home	
   state	
   proud.	
   On	
   10/10,	
   Ryan’s	
   public	
  
                                                                                                statement	
   that	
   Romney’s	
   stance	
   on	
   abor8on	
  
                                                                                                matched	
   his	
   own	
   got	
   a	
   posi8ve	
   response.	
   On	
  
                                                                                                10/11,	
   Ryan’s	
   debate	
   performance	
   further	
  
                                                                                                buoys	
  the	
  8cket’s	
  popularity.	
  
                                                                                            2.  2nd	
  presiden7al	
  debate:	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  microcosm	
  of	
  
                                                                                                a	
   broader	
   na8onal	
   trend;	
   Obama	
   “wins”	
   the	
  
                                                                                                debate	
  on	
  10/16	
  and	
  the	
  race	
  8ghtens.	
  	
  
                  1	
                                                           4	
  
                              2	
             3	
                                           3.  Media-­‐inspired	
   backlash:	
   On	
   10/18	
   local	
   news	
  
                                                                                                outlets	
   report	
   on	
   a	
   Wisconsin	
   sign	
   calling	
   for	
  
                                                                                                Obama’s	
  head	
  to	
  be	
  hung	
  in	
  a	
  noose.	
  A	
  week	
  
                                                                                                later	
   the	
   story	
   breaks	
   that	
   a	
   prominent	
   CEO	
  
                                                                                                has	
   emailed	
   employees	
   warning	
   them	
   not	
   to	
  
                                                                                                vote	
   for	
   Obama.	
   Outrage	
   ensues	
   and	
   Obama’s	
  
                                                                                                lead	
  widens.	
  
                                                                                            4.  Paying	
   a	
   visit:	
   Romney’s	
   first	
   trip	
   (11/1)	
   to	
  
                                                                                                Wisconsin	
   since	
   August	
   gives	
   him	
   a	
   figh8ng	
  
                                                                                                chance	
  in	
  the	
  state	
  again.	
  
   In a few states, the trends varied
 based on how we analyzed our data,
and figuring out what was going on got
    a whole lot more complicated…
FOCUS ON: NEVADA
SNAPSHOT:	
  Obama	
  was	
  ahead	
  early	
  in	
  the	
  month	
  but	
  lost	
  momentum	
  and	
  never	
  recovered.	
  Or	
  did	
  he?	
  



                                                                                                                                                                                                          w
 r	
                      1	
                                                                                                                                                                             e
                                                                                                                                                                                                          i
                                                         2	
                3	
   4	
                                                                                                                     g
 a	
                                                                                                                                                   2	
  
                                                                                                                           1	
                                                                4	
         h
                                                                                                                                                                                                          t
 w	
                                                                                                                                                                                                      e
                           1	
                                                                                                                                                                            d	
  



IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
1.  VP	
  debate:	
  A[er	
  the	
  debate	
  on	
  10/11,	
  support	
  for	
  Romney	
  jumps	
  while	
  support	
  for	
  Obama	
  plummets.	
  
2.  3rd	
  debate:	
  The	
  lead	
  Obama	
  had	
  evaporates	
  a[er	
  the	
  third	
  presiden8al	
  debate	
  on	
  10/22.	
  Although	
  this	
  debate	
  was	
  seen	
  as	
  leaning	
  in	
  
    Obama’s	
  favor,	
  Romney	
  uses	
  the	
  debate	
  to	
  strongly	
  emphasize	
  job	
  crea8on	
  (while	
  Obama	
  focused	
  on	
  foreign	
  policy),	
  a	
  top	
  concern	
  of	
  
    Nevada	
  voters.	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  dis8nctly	
  different	
  impact	
  from	
  the	
  na8on	
  as	
  a	
  whole	
  (which	
  saw	
  a	
  small	
  pro-­‐Obama	
  bump).	
  
3.  Romney’s	
   rally??:	
   Realizing	
   that	
   the	
   theme	
   of	
   job	
   crea8on	
   is	
   resona8ng	
   with	
   Nevadans,	
   Romney	
   focuses	
   on	
   Nevada-­‐specific	
   economic	
  
    issues	
  at	
  his	
  next	
  big	
  rally.	
  According	
  to	
  our	
  raw	
  model,	
  this	
  has	
  a	
  raw	
  impact—but	
  according	
  to	
  our	
  weighted	
  model,	
  it	
  doesn’t	
  hit	
  
    home	
  where	
  it	
  counts.	
  Which	
  is	
  right?	
  We’ll	
  see	
  on	
  Elec8on	
  Day.	
  
4.  Hurricane	
  Sandy:	
  As	
  in	
  many	
  other	
  swing	
  states,	
  the	
  combina8on	
  of	
  Chris	
  Chris8e’s	
  praise	
  of	
  Obama	
  and	
  the	
  repor8ng	
  of	
  Romney’s	
  
    past	
  comments	
  about	
  cuZng	
  FEMA	
  produce	
  a	
  posi8ve	
  bump	
  for	
  Obama	
  and	
  a	
  nega8ve	
  one	
  for	
  Romney.	
  

SO	
  WHERE	
  ARE	
  WE	
  NOW? 	
  Well,	
  that	
  depends	
  on	
  which	
  model	
  you	
  like	
  here.	
  Our	
  raw	
  model	
  has	
  Obama	
  s8ll	
  trailing	
  by	
  a	
  point;	
  our	
  
                                     weighted	
  model	
  has	
  Obama	
  leading	
  by	
  more	
  than	
  3	
  points.	
  
FOCUS ON: OHIO
 SNAPSHOT:	
  Who’s	
  on	
  top?	
  To	
  be	
  honest,	
  we’re	
  not	
  sure.	
  The	
  raw	
  data	
  and	
  the	
  weighted	
  data	
  are	
  quite	
  
 different	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  predic8ng	
  a	
  winner.	
  But	
  the	
  bumps	
  in	
  the	
  road	
  are	
  the	
  same.	
  



                                                                                                                                                                                                                w
                                                                                                                                                                                                                e
  r	
                                                                                                                                                                                                           i
  a	
                                       1	
                  2	
                          3	
                                            1	
                           2	
            3	
                   g
                                                                                                                                                                                                                h
  w	
                                                                                                                                                                                                           t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                d	
  



 IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
 1.  2nd	
  debate:	
  On	
  the	
  na8onal	
  level,	
  Obama’s	
  debate	
  “win”	
  on	
  10/16	
  increases	
  his	
  popularity,	
  but	
  this	
  trend	
  does	
  not	
  hold	
  in	
  Ohio.	
  This	
  is	
  
      likely	
  due	
  to	
  Romney’s	
  focus	
  on	
  job	
  crea8on,	
  a	
  hot-­‐bu1on	
  issue	
  in	
  Ohio.	
  (59%	
  of	
  Ohioans	
  say	
  their	
  biggest	
  concern	
  is	
  the	
  economy.	
  
 2.  Fishy	
  vo7ng	
  business:	
  News	
  breaks	
  on	
  10/23	
  that	
  many	
  vo8ng	
  machines	
  were	
  8ed	
  to	
  Romney	
  donors.	
  Ohio,	
  which	
  has	
  a	
  history	
  of	
  
      vo8ng	
  machine	
  controversy,	
  may	
  have	
  taken	
  this	
  revela8on	
  badly.	
  
 3.  Ad	
  blitz:	
  Two	
  new	
  ads	
  are	
  released	
  in	
  Ohio	
  on	
  10/29.	
  One	
  highlights	
  a	
  key	
  evangelical	
  endorsement,	
  and	
  the	
  other	
  a1acks	
  Obama’s	
  
      record	
  suppor8ng	
  the	
  auto	
  industry.	
  The	
  la1er	
  is	
  an	
  important	
  issue	
  in	
  Ohio;	
  again,	
  job-­‐crea8on	
  issues	
  in	
  Ohio	
  are	
  key.	
  
 SO	
  WHERE	
  ARE	
  WE	
  NOW? 	
  Well,	
  that	
  depends	
  on	
  which	
  model	
  you	
  like	
  here.	
  Our	
  raw	
  model	
  has	
  Romney	
  up	
  by	
  5	
  points;	
  our	
  weighted	
  
                                      model	
  has	
  Obama	
  leading	
  by	
  3	
  points.	
  They	
  call	
  Ohio	
  a	
  swing	
  state	
  for	
  a	
  reason!	
  
FOCUS ON: NORTH CAROLINA
 SNAPSHOT:	
  No	
  state	
  has	
  us	
  more	
  confused	
  than	
  North	
  Carolina.	
  Not	
  only	
  does	
  each	
  of	
  our	
  models	
  
 project	
  a	
  different	
  winner—but	
  there	
  are	
  also	
  different	
  bumps	
  and	
  trends	
  depending	
  on	
  which	
  one	
  
 of	
  our	
  three	
  models	
  you	
  look	
  at.	
  We’ll	
  let	
  you	
  make	
  up	
  your	
  own	
  mind	
  here.	
  



                                                                                    1	
                      3	
                 5	
  
                                            4	
          5	
                                   2	
                                                                               2	
                          5	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                               4	
  

                               raw	
                                                    weighted	
  model	
  #1	
                                                     weighted	
  #2	
  
 IN-­‐DEPTH:	
  
 1.  A	
  liLle	
  faith:	
  On	
  10/11	
  Romney	
  prays	
  with	
  legendary	
  evangelist	
  and	
  North	
  Carolina	
  resident	
  Billy	
  Graham.	
  
 2.  A	
  radio	
  gaffe:	
  On	
  10/17,	
  Romney’s	
  son	
  Tagg	
  goes	
  on	
  a	
  local	
  North	
  Carolina	
  News	
  radio	
  show	
  that	
  he	
  wanted	
  to	
  “take	
  a	
  swing	
  at	
  
     the	
  president.”	
  This	
  seems	
  not	
  to	
  go	
  over	
  well	
  with	
  voters.	
  
 3.  3rd	
  debate:	
  Romney’s	
  debate	
  performance	
  on	
  10/22	
  resonates	
  in	
  North	
  Carolina	
  .	
  
 4.  Hurricane	
  Sandy:	
  The	
  hurricane	
  anxiety	
  builds,	
  and	
  so	
  do	
  Obama’s	
  poll	
  numbers.	
  
 5.  Sandy	
   strikes	
   again:	
   This	
   is	
   a	
   microcosm	
   of	
   a	
   na8onal	
   trend.	
   The	
   combina8on	
   of	
   Chris	
   Chris8e’s	
   media	
   blitz	
   on	
   10/30	
   praising	
  
      Obama’s	
  hurricane	
  response	
  and	
  the	
  repor8ng	
  on	
  10/31	
  of	
  Romney’s	
  past	
  comments	
  about	
  cuZng	
  FEMA	
  8ghten	
  the	
  race.	
  
 SO	
  WHERE	
  ARE	
  WE	
  NOW? 	
  Your	
  guess	
  is	
  as	
  good	
  as	
  ours.	
  
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