Employment
California
Million
13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Employment
Oakland MSA
Thousand
1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Employment
San Francisco MSA
Thousand
1025 1000 975 950 925 900 875 850 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Employment
Orange County MSA
Thousand
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Employment
Los Angeles MSA
Million
4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Employment
San Jose MSA
Thousand
1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
California MSA Employment
Ranked by Percent Change in Jobs
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Metropolitan Area Riverside Ventura Vallejo Orange County Salinas Modesto Santa Rosa San Diego Oakland Los Angeles Nov-97 855.3 245.6 153.3 1249.7 119.0 136.4 166.4 1064.8 962.3 3907.1 Nov-98 897.0 255.1 159.1 1296.6 122.8 140.3 170.9 1092.4 987.1 3998.3 Absolute Change 41.6 9.5 5.8 46.9 3.8 3.9 4.5 27.6 24.9 91.3 Percent Change 4.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3%
Rosen Consulting Group
California MSA Employment
Ranked by Percent Change in Jobs
Rank 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Metropolitan Area Stockton Sacramento Santa Barbara San Francisco Fresno San Jose Bakersfield Nov-97 169.4 630.6 152.1 996.5 278.5 946.8 181.2 Nov-98 173.3 645.2 155.6 1015.5 282.9 956.6 182.4 Absolute Change 4.0 14.7 3.5 19.0 4.5 9.8 1.3 Percent Change 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7%
Rosen Consulting Group
Single Family Housing Starts
Units (000)
1600
1451 433 1
1400 1200 1000
813
1309 1151 1162 1194 1179 1146 1084 072 1081 1068 1 1003 888 892 852 705 894
1132
1265 1192 1161 1134 1126 1076 1030
840
800 600 400 200 0 70 72 74 76 78
663
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
Rosen Consulting Group
California Single Family Permits
Units (000)
180 160
175 162163 140 143 127 113114 103 90 71 76 60 51 87 74 76 78 70 69 74 104 93 84 147 136
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
124 113 103
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
Rosen Consulting Group
Existing Single Family Home Sales
Units (000)
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Rosen Consulting Group
2476 2 2 2252 334 272 2018 1612 3986 3827 3650 3064 3946 3802 3802 3520 3474 436513 3 3 3346 3214 3 3211 220 2868 2719 4770 4215 4087
2973 2419
1990
Existing Single Family Home Sales
California
Units (000)
700
631 605
600 500
426 455 405 401 361
559
573
587 562 539 512 488 465 405 382 336 343 453 425 428 435 483 425 506 555
400 300 200 100 0
266
234
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
Rosen Consulting Group
Housing Affordability
% Able to Afford Median-Priced Home
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35% 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
California Housing Affordability
% Able to Afford Median-Priced Home
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Residential Mortgage Rates
Fixed and Adjustable
13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Rosen Consulting Group
FRM ARM
Existing Median Home Price Appreciation
Annual % Change
16 14 12 10 8 6 4
2.1 3.7 3.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.4 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.8 7.7 8.2 7.9 6.8 6.4 6.6 5.0 4.7 5.0 4.8 10.7 10.3 14.4 13.5 12.6 11.7
2 0 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Existing Median Home Price Appreciation
California
Annual % Change
30 25
20.2
28.1
20 15 10 5 0
9.2 7.2 10.0
16.9
18.7 18.3 13.8 11.5 8.2 3.8 4.9 2.3 -0.1 6.3
18.4 16.6
8.2 3.8 5.0
-1.2
-5 -10 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
-1.6 -4.6
-1.7 -3.7
-0.6
92
94
96
98
Rosen Consulting Group
World Output Growth
Annual Growth
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Pessimistic Base
f 98 19 20
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Rosen Consulting Group
19
00
f
Output Growth
North America
Annual Growth
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
f f 99 19 20 90 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 -1 9 -1 9 19 19 19 19 19 85 90 19 00 f
19
Rosen Consulting Group
19
Output Growth
Western Europe
Annual Growth
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5%
f f 99 19 20 90 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 -1 9 -1 9 19 19 19 19 19 85 90 19 00 f
19
Rosen Consulting Group
19
Output Growth
Asia
Annual Growth
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
80 -1
Asia ex. Japan
Japan
19
Rosen Consulting Group
19 f 99 20 f 00 f
9
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
98
Output Growth
South America
Annual Growth
7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2%
f f 99 19 20 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 -1 9 19 19 19 19 19 88 19 00 f
Rosen Consulting Group
19
100
110
120
130
140
US$ / Ton
80
90
Rosen Consulting Group
Commodities Prices
Copper, 1996-1998
Ja nM 96 ar M 96 ay -9 Ju 6 lSe 96 pN 96 ov Ja 96 nM 97 ar M 97 ay -9 Ju 7 lSe 97 pN 97 ov Ja 97 nM 98 ar M 98 ay -9 Ju 8 lSe 98 pN 98 ov -9 8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
US$ / Barrel Brent Crude
Rosen Consulting Group
Commodities Prices
Oil, 1996-1998
Ja nM 96 ar M 96 ay -9 Ju 6 lSe 96 pN 96 ov Ja 96 nM 97 ar M 97 ay -9 Ju 7 lSe 97 pN 97 ov Ja 97 nM 98 ar M 98 ay -9 Ju 8 lSe 98 pN 98 ov -9 8
World Economic Outlook Risks and Opportunities
• Asian Financial, Economic and Social Crises
• Asian Crises’ Effect on Other Regions
• Slow Pace of Banking Reform in Japan • The Introduction of European Monetary Union • Threat of Deflation - Worldwide Overcapacity • Threat of Protectionism and Capital Controls
Rosen Consulting Group
Exchange Rates
1995 - 1998
Cumulative Change vs. USD
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% -90%
C A hin Un rge a ite nti d na Ne St th a te er s Ph lan ili ds pp in e M s ex Hu ico ng In a do ry ne si Tu a rk ey K in g Un ite d do m
Rosen Consulting Group
Exchange Rates
Volatility, 1995 - 1998
Annualized Standard Deviation
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
C Ho hi ng na K on g Ne Br th a z i l er la Ph n d s ili pp in es Ja pa M n al ay s Th ia ai l In and do ne si a A rg e nt in a
Rosen Consulting Group
10
0
2
4
6
8
Rosen Consulting Group
10=Best, 0=Worst
9.8 9.7 9.2 9.0 8.9
Total Score
Country Risk Index
3.4 3.1 2.9 2.4
Un ite d Ne Sta Un th te ite er s d lan K in ds gd o C m an Si ad ng a ap or M e ex ic Tu o Ph rk ili ey pp in Th e s ai In lan do d ne si a
1.1
Country Return Index
Total Score
10=Best, 0=Worst
10 8 6 4 2 0
ai Fi n nl a Po nd Sw rtu itz ga Ne erl l th an er d la G nd er s m A an rg en y tin B el a gi D um en m ar Un Fr k ite an d ce St at es Sp
8.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 6.8
Rosen Consulting Group
Country Return Index
Total Score, 1998-1999
10=Best, 0=Worst
10 8 6 4 2 0
e M s ex ic o B ra zi So J a l ut pa h n A fr Th ica Ph aila ili nd pp Si in ng e s Ho ap ng ore K o M ng al a In ys do ia ne si a St at
6.8 4.8 4.8 4.2
3.8
3.7
3.4 2.6 2.5 1.8 0.0
Un ite
Rosen Consulting Group
d
Risk and Return
Country Index Comparison
Return Index
10 9
Netherlands Finland Spain
Italy
Argentina
8 7
China Poland
United States
Sweden United Kingdom
6 Czech Republic 5
Brazil
Turkey
Risk Index
10
8
Hong Kong Singapore
Japan
6
4 3 2 1
4
2
Thailand
0
Indonesia
0
Rosen Consulting Group
Real Estate Cycle Office
12
Jakarta - 1:30 Decline Phase Hong Kong/ Singapore - 2:00
Overshooting Phase Atlanta - 9:30
9
Tokyo - 2:30
3
London - 8:30
Growth Phase
6
San Jose/ Warsaw - 8:00
Absorption Phase
Bangkok/Seoul - 4:00
Berlin - 5:00
Lisbon/New York/ San Francisco - 6:30
Rosen Consulting Group
Madrid - 5:30 Paris - 6:00
Central London Office Market Supply and Demand
Square Feet, Millions
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
1Q 96 2Q 96 3Q 96 4Q 96 1Q 97 2Q 97 3Q 97 4Q 97 1Q 98 2Q 98 3Q 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Construction Net Absorption
London - City Submarket Office Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
3Q 98 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 97
Rosen Consulting Group
London - City Submarket Prime Office Rents
GBP per Square Foot
70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30
1Q 98 2Q 98 3Q 98 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 97
Rosen Consulting Group
Hong Kong Apartment Prices (“C” Units)
HK $ per Square Meter
110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000
1Q 93 1Q 94 1Q 95 1Q 96 1Q 97 1Q 98
Rosen Consulting Group
Hong Kong Office Market Supply and Demand
Square Meters, 000s
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
2Q 98 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 f
Construction Net Absorption
Rosen Consulting Group
Hong Kong Office Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 99 f
Rosen Consulting Group