Justin Bieber or Selena Gomez by xiaoyounan

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									Justin Bieber or Selena Gomez? An
 Analysis of the Music Theory and
  Neurotransmittic Forces Behind
       Successful Pop Songs
           Anne Bogert
             EC 700
      Poker Face or Paparazzi?
• Which Lady Gaga song sold more copies?
  – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bESGLojNYSo
  – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2smz_1L2_0
    &ob=av2n
             Broadly Speaking
• Why does one pop song sell more copies than
  another pop song?
  – How established the artist is in the industry (Lee
    2003)
  – Proportion of population that is teens and pre-
    teeens (Burke 1994)
  – Prices of substitute goods (Stevans & Sessions
    2003)
  – Season and weather conditions (Christman 2003)
    Demand Inelasticity of Music
• Demand for singles and albums was found to
  be highly inelastic
  – …Even in recessionary times with a negative
    outlook (Sweeney 2003)
  – …Even with the advent of file sharing and illegal
    downloads (Stevans and Sessions 2005)
   Hamlen (1991) and Asai (2011)
• Regressed the log of single sales against
  physical and musical attributes of artists
  – Female, black, primary songwriter, cross-genre,
    wide voice range, moonlighting in acting were all
    significant
• Regressed the log of single and album sales
  against non-musical individual artist variables
  – Total previous sales, strength of fan base, gender,
    and record label were all significant
              Lacking Literature
• Use of aggregated sales data
  – Micro analyses few and far between
• Measurement Error
  – Chart performance used as LHS variable
     • Sale cycle concentrations prove this can be unreliable
       (Asai 2009)
           Your Brain on Music
• While listening to a pleasurable piece of
  music…
  – Get the chills
  – Reward centers are activated
  – Activity in the amygdala is inhibited
  – Dopamine released by nucleus accumbens
  – Positive mood associated with higher levels of
    dopamine
Your Brain on Music
     Contribution to Literaature
• Analyze demand for pop music on a Micro
  level
  – Control for artist and macro variables
  – Prove that the success of a pop song can be traced
    back to the elements of music theory present in a
    song
    Data Summary and Methods
• Cross-Sectional
• 350 observations
  – Singles released by solo artists in 2011
     • Selected randomly from the Billboard Hot 100
       beginning January 22, 2011
  – Sales data (LHS) provided by Nielsen Sound Scan
  – All RHS variables determined through my own
    research
Sample Equation
       Possible Transformations
• Square Terms
  – Previous album, artist age, bpm, vocal range
• Interaction Terms
  – Tonality and key (key signature), chord progression
    and key
       Potential Research Issues
• Causality
  – I.E. “Songkey”
• Ommitted Variable Bias
  – Not really examining macro factors
Research Relevance

								
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