Economics 471 International Case Study: The US-Canadian Lumber Dispute (Lumber IV) (40 Minute PowerPoint Presentation) To connect to websites mentioned below, you must log in via UW computer or connect remotely (via UW libraries). You may be required to use MS Internet Explorer as your web browser to access some sites. The purpose of this project is to give you the opportunity to study a case of dumping in the real world. Your presentation will include both the political and the empirical dimensions of antidumping duties. This outline will guide you in your preparation for the presentation. The learning objective of this project is for you and your teams to present both the news and data that characterize the dispute. You are expected to produce a power point presentation that addresses each task outlined below in detail. You must to identify the intentions of both countries involved and how each country attempted to achieve its agenda. You must identify winners and losers of the “legislation.” Here is the minimum amount of information you are required to collect Task Suggested Source Search news articles to provide Start with background on the specific anti http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_%E2%80%93_Canada_softwood_lumber_d dumping duty (including a time ispute, line). See also various other web sites like Lexus Nexus, Wall Street Journal, New York Times. See also information on the Soft Wood Lumber Agreement http://www.cintrafor.org/publications/factsheets/FS42.pdf and http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/het/softwood/disputes.htm or, if you have a lot of time: http://www.amazon.com/Softwood-Lumber-War- Economics-U-S-Canadian/dp/1933115564. Much of this can also be read on Google books (here) Provide a timeline and Go to the USITC website http://www.usitc.gov/. analysis of the USITC 1) DESCRIBE WHAT IS INVOLVED IN A USITC INVESTIGATION investigation and ruling. Click on ABOUT THE USITC Import Injury Investigations, and 2) FIND THE SOFTWOOD LUMBER INVESTIGATION Return to the home page (http://www.usitc.gov/), and find http://www.usitc.gov/publications/docs/pubs/701_731/pub3509.pdf by searching for “SOFTWOOD LUMBER” a) OUTLINE THE REASONS FOR THE TARIFF b) OUTLINE THE “REMEDIES” I. Link the proposed remedies to the determination (how are the remedies supposed to fix the injury?) See also the Bush Administration Policy Bulletin on Lumber http://www.trade.gov/media/PressReleases/0603/lumber_061803.html and the Canadian response Task Suggested Source The US is a member of I) To understand the role of the WTO, go to the WTO. Outline the http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact1_e.htm and click on SETTLING WTO’s official dispute DISPUTES on the left side bar. Read the sub sections settlement summary a) “A UNIQUE CONTRIBUTION” and all related b) “THE PANEL PROCESS.” documents position and Click on the AGREEMENTS section on the left side bar and read the sub sections its ruling. a) “OVERVIEW” Outlines how WTO and b) “TARIFFS” US gov’t/USITC c) “ANTI DUMPING, SUBSIDIES” positions differ a. Why does the WTO investigate? b. What does the WTO investigate? II) Go to the WTO website http://www.wto.org/. On the top of the page, click on “TRADE TOPICS” DISPUTE SETTLEMENT THE DISPUTES find DISPUTE CASES. On the left side bar, click on “DISPUTES CHRONOLOGICALLY” and find the dispute (DS247, DS264, DS277, DS311) Read the case summary and click on the “ALL DOCUMENTS” on the right side of the page. Create a zip file and download all documents in English. Choose the option to include an index file, and choose the option to download documents in English. Open the index file once you downloaded the zip. What does WTO case claim to be the problem with the Countervailing Duty? 1) How does the US defend itself? 2) What is the WTO’s final ruling? Be very specific and detailed about the reasons for its ruling! See also http://www.economist.com/node/1560792 Obtain import data Use either a UW computer or log in remotely to UW libraries to enter the UN Comtrade (both quantity and database. On the main UW library web page, type “COMTRADE” into the search feature. It value) from the United will produce search results. Click on UN COMTRADE Connect to this title online; UW Nations Commodity restricted database DATA QUERY BASIC SELECTION Trade Statistics 1) SELECT CLASSIFICATION Click HS: AS REPORTED Database in order to 2) Click on the COMMODITY tab. In Step 1 SELECT SOURCE, indicate COMMODITIES track the volume of SEARCH. In Step 2 SELECT ITEMS indicate SOFTWOOD in HS AS REPORTED 3. Hit Canadian lumber SEARCH. Check the box next to 44. Click ADD imports to the US and 3) Click on the REPORTERS tab and select the USA (Click ADD) (imputed) prices for the 4) Click on the PARTNERS tab and select CANADA (Click ADD after selecting each 5 years before, during partner) and 5 years after the 5) Click on the YEARS tab and select the years 1996 – 2010 (Click ADD after selecting each duties were imposed. year) 6) Click on the OTHERS tab and select IMPORT 7) Click SUBMIT QUERY Isolate the 5 most 8) Click DIRECT DOWNLOAD to obtain an Excel file important claims by the WTO, USITC, Canada and US, and comment Graph the data for a) Trade Value, b) Trade Quantity and c) Price (Value/Quantity). how the data relates to 1) Comment on how the duty affected a), b), c) and trade theory implications. those claims 2) Isolate the 5 most important claims by the WTO, USITC, Canada and US, and comment how the data relates to those claims Obtain employment Go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics website http://www.bls.gov/. Click on SUBJECT AREAS data from the Bureau of NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT. On the left side bar, click on “CES Databases” click on Labor Statistics for ONE-SCREEN DATA SEARCH for EMPLOYMENT, HOURS, AND EARNINGS. aggregate number of ii. In field (1) click on “All employees, Thousands” hours worked in the iii. In field (2) click on “Durable goods” affected industry in the iv. In field (3) click on “31321000 Wood Products” 5 years prior, during v. Field (4) is prefilled and 5 years post duty vi. Field (5) click on “Get Data” imposition. vii. Change the date range and select the box to produce the graph viii. You can also click on the link next to DOWNLOAD for an Excel file 1) Comment on the effect of the duty on labor in the US. Did it have its designed effect? Additional data sources for volume, price etc Data Resources 1) “North American Lumber Annual Historical Data – 2010.” RISI. www.risiinfo.com, www.risiinfo.com/Marketing/ahd/Excerpts/na_lumber.pdf 2) Hajdu, Csaba. “The US-Canada softwood lumber dispute – a brief history” 3) “US – Canada Trade Dispute Timeline.” Random Lengths. www.randomlengths.com/pdf/Timeline.pdf. OVERALL 1) Identify ALL winners and losers of the duty. ANALYSIS 2) Who do you think lobbied for and against the duty? (Extra credit: Can you identify the PAC contributions of the beneficiaries of the duty?) 3) What additional data would you want to collect to sharpen your implications that you derived from the BLS and UNComTrade?
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