LWEC PB May 2011 Item 06 Adaptation

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					                                                                                     ITEM:        6
                                                                                  LWEC PB 11/04




LIVING WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PARTNERS’ BOARD


CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION



Purpose

The purpose is to 1) review the policy drivers for adaptation to climate change and evidence needs
arising from these, 2) discuss the approach being taken by LWEC to adaptation and 3) discuss how
research under LWEC to date is addressing priority areas for early action.

Following a presentation on the above at the meeting, Partners will be asked to discuss where they
are likely to be making further investments in adaptation research and how LWEC can coordinate
these to ensure maximum added value. This follows a presentation on adaptation to the Business
Advisory Board in April; their advice to the LWEC Partners’ Board is included.



Action

The Partners’ Board is asked to:

  i)     NOTE the update from the Defra Adapting to Climate Change programme and evidence
         needs arising from the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA);

 ii)     NOTE the main points arising from the BAB discussion on adaptation;

iii)     DISCUSS the research funded on adaptation to date and IDENTIFY whether there are any
         major gaps in activities;

iv)      SHARE plans for further investment in this area and AGREE how this can best be
         coordinated to ensure co-design, co-delivery and co-production to maximise investment;
         address emerging priorities (e.g. from the CCRA) and maximise impact.




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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION


Introduction

1. Climate change adaptation is central to LWEC’s strategic goal of ‘ensuring that decision-
   makers in government, business and society, have the knowledge, tools and foresight to
   mitigate, adapt to and benefit from environmental change’.

2. This paper, and presentations to be made on 26 May, will provide:
   i) A consideration of what adaptation is, the debates surrounding it and what LWEC
      partners have funded to date;
   ii) An update on the current status of the Government’s Adapting to Climate Change
       Programme led by Defra and evidence needs arising from activities such as the
       Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) (presentation to be given by Rupert Lewis,
       Defra);
   iii) Feedback on the above from the LWEC Business Advisory Board who considered
        Adaptation at their meeting in April.

3. Partners will then be asked to discuss whether they are likely to be making further
   investments of relevance in the near future and how through co-design, co-production and
   co-delivery of research LWEC can ensure that this investment has maximum impact.


LWEC and Climate Adaptation

Adaptation
4. To date much of the research on climate change has focused on climate science and
   mitigation responses that enable the development of a low carbon economy. Research on
   impacts and adaptation responses has been slower to develop, in part because of the
   political imperative requiring a focus on mitigation, and in part because of the fragmented
   nature of adaptation research.
5. In the past, adaptation has often been responsive, for example to extreme events such as
   flooding. In anticipation of climate change, there is now a much greater emphasis on
   proactive and planned change.
6. Adaptation responses can be differentiated along several dimensions: by spatial scale
   (local, regional, national); by sector (agriculture, tourism); by climatic zone (dryland,
   floodplains etc); by actor (national or local government, business, NGOs, local
   communities and individuals). Given that climate change has the potential to have an
   impact on all of these, the scope of research on climate adaptation is wide and diffuse.
   Most research is either very generic or addresses specific research dimensions.
7. Government responses to adaptation lie with Defra and the devolved administrations; the
   Scottish Government has recently established a virtual climate change research centre to
   advise on climate mitigation and adaptation. Defra’s Adapting to Climate Change (ACC)
   programme is working across numerous sectors to provide information, raise awareness
   and enable action on climate change adaptation. ACC is currently developing an in-depth
   Climate Change Risk Assessment of a number of sectors in the UK, including business
   and organisations with functions of a public nature. The Environment Agency is taking on


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      a new, additional role as the Government’s delivery body in England for advice on
      climate adaptation
8. Adaptation to climate change for business involves the management of risk and provides
   opportunities, as outlined in recent reports1. The UKTI report focused on the
   opportunities in four sectors: financial services, infrastructure and construction,
   professional services and consulting, agriculture and life sciences.

Adaptation debates
9. Debate: To enable persistence or enable change
                  a. There is considerable related research and debate on issues such as resilience,
                  vulnerability, adaptive capacity, risk and transition pathways. Some of that
                  discourse is confusing, especially where it is concerned with vulnerability and
                  more especially resilience, a term which is interpreted in a variety of ways.
                  b. Increasing resilience is often seen as enabling persistence as opposed to
                  accommodating change.
10. Debate: To what extent is there a need for more detailed climate predictions?
                  c. Many climate scientists, funding agencies, and decision makers argue that
                  more accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of temporal and spatial
                  scales (and better understanding of the associated uncertainties) are a key element
                  of decision making related to climate adaptation.
                  d. Others argue that there will always be limits to climate prediction, that climate
                  is only one of many factors that will influence decisions on adaptation efforts -
                  and often climate is not the most important factor. Robust adaptation in this case
                  requires options to be explored against a range of future climate and socio-
                  economic scenarios.
11. Debate: What types of decisions on adaptation actions need to be made?
                  e. What is the life time of decisions? Short lead and short consequence (e.g.
                  planting cultivars); short lead time and long consequence (e.g. watering hole);
                  long lead time and short consequence (e.g. new cultivar); long lead time and long
                  consequence (e.g. new town)
                  f. Is incremental adaptation preventing more transformative decisions?
                  Incremental decisions enable the continuation of what we are currently doing –
                  climate proofing current practices (e.g. changing cultivars to continue farming,
                  upgrade existing flood defences). Transformative decisions require fundamental
                  change in objectives (e.g. let land flood, build new barrage). Rather than aiming
                  for 2 °C and planning for 4 °C (transformational adaptation), are we are aiming
                  for 4 °C (mitigation) and planning for 2 °C (incremental adaptation) with a
                  consequent danger of maladaptation?

What is LWEC doing on climate adaptation?
12. Adaptation to climate change is considered by the LWEC partners to lie at the core of its
    activities and is encapsulated both within the vision for LWEC and specifically in the
    Climate Challenge, which was originally defined in terms of being able to predict the
    impacts of climate change, mitigate or adapt to these, and manage extreme events better.

1UKTI: Adapting to an uncertain climate: a world of commercial opportunities: (www.ukti.gov.uk/uktihome/item/128100.html); Defra: Opportunities for UK
Business from Climate Change Adaptation: (ww2.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/sectors/business/)


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13. At a time when the policy and evidence requirements on adaptation were not clear in
    2009 LWEC with Defra commissioned a report from AEA on Developing an Action Plan
    for Research to enable the UK to adapt to climate change2. This highlighted key gaps.
    LWEC and the Adaptation Sub Committee of the Climate Change Committee are now
    working together to identify further evidence gaps and research priorities.
14. Specific aspects of the LWEC programme relating to adaptation are listed in bullets 15-
    17. In general these relate to
           a. Improving climate and climate impact model performance with the latest research
           b. Deepening understanding of the risk management and potential impacts of climate
               change
           c. Advancing understanding of the public and private options to climate change
           d. A range of sectoral activities, focusing on the LWEC challenge areas
15. The LWEC challenge areas map broadly onto the five proposed themes for a National
    Adaptation Programme. It is anticipated that substantial outputs from the challenge
    programmes will be relevant to the adaptation agenda.
           a. Natural Environment & Biodiversity (LWEC Ecosystem challenge)
           b. Agriculture & Forestry (LWEC Resources challenge)
           c. Health & Wellbeing (LWEC Health challenge)
           d. Infrastructure & Buildings (LWEC Infrastructure challenge)
           e. Business & Economy (LWEC Societal challenge)
16. Discussions are being held with Defra ACC on LWEC producing an Annual Report
    Card3, synthesising the current state of research and knowledge available on adaptation in
    a highly accessible and actionable format for policy advisors and decision makers.
17. Major activities in the LWEC programme that relate to furthering our understanding of
    climate impacts and adaptation are highlighted in Table 1. They are arranged according to
    the priority areas for action that have been identified by the Adaptation Sub-Committee4.
           a. Land use planning,
           b. National infrastructure,
           c. Buildings,
           d. Natural resources,
           e. Emergency planning

Enabling adaptation
18. Climate services: The Met Office is leading on the development of climate services to
    provide climate information on the spatial and temporal scales required by business to
    adapt to current climate variability and future climate change.
19. Risk management: The Cranfield Risk Centre is focusing on a range of aspects of risk
    management. Examples of specific activities targeted at risk management are the
    development of a flooding strategy to deliver better flood risk management and
    exploration of the changing risks of infectious disease together with improved
    diagnostics.


2   http://www.lwec.org.uk/news-archive/2010/01032010-developing-action-plan-research-enable-uk-adapt-climate-change
3   Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership Annual Report Card: http://www.mccip.org.uk/annual-report-card/2010-2011.aspx
4   ASC: How well prepared is the UK for climate change? http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/adaptation

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20. Robust adaptation: LWEC partners are exploring how decisions on adaptation can be
    made to take account of uncertainties relating to future climate and climate impacts e.g.
    Thames 2100 project led by the EA5.
21. Taking a systems approach: LWEC is encouraging research at larger scales from a
    systems perspective to enable better decisions that take account of trade offs and
    synergies e.g. UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC), Tyndall
    Coastal Simulator.
22. Making best use of existing knowledge and programmes: We are constantly looking to
    see how we can make better use of current investments and knowledge, e.g. the ARCC
    programme has identified how we can make better use of current unlinked investments on
    the heat island effect.
23. Exploring transition: Adaptation has to occur on appropriate time scales. Research by
    NERC and the Met Office is showing when particular climate impacts are likely to occur,
    whilst the ITRC is exploring how transitions can be made in complex infrastructure
    systems.
24. Members are asked to review the current range of activities and to discuss whether there
    are any major gaps. Consideration should also be given as to whether sufficient attention
    has been given to the need for transformative change.

Input from the Business Advisory Board

25. The main points arising from the discussion with the BAB were:
               Defra’s ‘Opportunities for UK Business from Climate Change’ report was welcomed
                by the BAB and the need to publicise it more widely was highlighted. Working with
                the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) is a useful route to
                dissemination and other industry bodies and trade associations should also be used.
               The CIMA web survey was welcomed and felt to be useful in helping small
                businesses understand the issues and apply them to their own businesses, however
                awareness needs to be raised through the appropriate networks.
               Adaptation is not a meaningful concept for business; presenting in terms of risk
                assessment is more powerful.
               ‘Just-in-time’ supply chains and the interdependencies between supply chains are
                points of high risk of disruption that can decrease resilience in unexpected and
                complex ways. For example, logistics cuts across all sectors can have far reaching
                and complex impacts on supply chain resilience, as highlighted by the recent
                earthquake in Japan.
               Businesses are starting to recognise the benefits of mitigation. The drivers for
                adaptation however are less clear and will only pay off if the anticipated event
                occurs; therefore businesses tend to defer action until the last minute. Action needs
                to be taken to create the push for adaptation, such as development of an
                environmental change resilience kite-mark.
               It is important to deal with mitigation and adaptation together; confusing to separate.
26. In relation to the summary of the research on adaptation that has been funded through the
    LWEC partners the discussion highlighted:

5   http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/planning/109030.aspx

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        The wealth of research, data and models that are being developed within the UK
         research base that business is not aware of.
        There are opportunities for the research community to apply its knowledge to issues
         that business faces (e.g. urban heat island effect).
        Communication to business should focus on the consequences and outcomes of the
         underlying science in terms that are meaningful to business (such as increased costs of
         materials, length of close-down periods), rather than focusing on the science itself.
        The BAB advised that the findings of the Defra CCRA should be used to inform
         where there are gaps in the research that can inform new funding initiatives. Business
         should be brought into the research to guide programmes towards its needs.
        Researchers should be encouraged to think ‘up front’ who will be the beneficiaries of
         their research and incentivised to engage with business.
        Research on risk assessment and decision making was agreed to be an area of interest
         for future discussion, drawing on the investment in the Cranfield Risk Centre which
         focuses on understanding and managing natural and environmental risks.
27. The main action arising was for Andrew Watkinson and Defra to discuss the adaptation
    agenda further, considering where the needs and opportunities identified through the
    Climate Change Risk Assessment present research opportunities for the LWEC partners,
    and where LWEC-funded research can be applied to the issues the CCRA raises.


Future investments under LWEC
28. Following the announcement of the Comprehensive Spending Review outcomes, Partners
    have been revising evidence priorities and delivery plans and considering where future
    investments will be made. Partners are invited to share plans for investments to address
    adaptation priorities and to discuss how these can be delivered in partnership to both
    maximise the investment and ensure co-design, delivery and production to maximise
    outcomes and impact.


Action
29. The Partners’ Board is asked to:

  i)     NOTE the update on from the Defra Adapting to Climate Change Programme and
         evidence needs arising from the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA);

 ii)     NOTE the main points arising from the BAB discussion on adaptation;

iii)     DISCUSS the research funded on adaptation to date, and IDENTIFY whether there
         are any major gaps in activities;

iv)      SHARE plans for further investment in this area and AGREE how this can best be
         coordinated to ensure co-design, co-delivery and co-production to maximise
         investment, address emerging priorities (e.g. from the CCRA) and maximise impact.




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Table 1: Adaptation research in LWEC

In their report “How well prepared is the UK for climate change?”6 the Adaptation Sub-committee, identified five priority areas for early action.
The table indicates the LWEC accredited activities which are relevant to those priorities. There will also be relevant knowledge and skills within
other research programmes and grants (e.g. The Sustainable Urban Environment Programme7).

1. Taking a strategic approach to land use planning
What is the issue?                   What are the research goals?                                                          What are the outputs?                                              Links to policy/business users.
- Ensure that new                     ARCADIA: Adaptation and Resilience in                                                Spatial Urban Weather Generator                                  ARCC Co-ordination network.9
buildings and                          Cities: Analysis and Decision making using                                            (compatible with UKCP09)                                         ARCADIA
infrastructure are                     Integrated Assessment (ARCC8). To provide                                            Scenarios of London’s economy for                                 Greater London Authority
sited in areas that                    system-scale understanding of the inter-                                              analysis of adaptation options.                                   London First
minimise exposure                      relationships between climate impacts, the                                                                                                              Arup
                                                                                                                            Spatial land use simulator for
to flood risk, do not                  urban economy, land use, transport and the
                                                                                                                             analysis of vulnerability and                                     Commission for Architecture
increase flood risk to                 built environment and to use this understanding                                                                                                           and the Built Environment
others, and do not                                                                                                           adaptation options at a city scale.
                                       to design cities that are more resilient and                                                                                                            Royal Town Planning Institute
create a legacy of                     adaptable.                                                                           Climate change scenarios at                                       Town and Country Planning
flood defence or                                                                                                             neighbourhood-scale.                                                Association
water supply costs.
                                      SNACC: Suburban neighbourhood                                                        Portfolio of potential adaptation and                             DCLG
                                       adaptation for a changing climate (ARCC).                                             mitigation strategies for suburbs,                               SNACC
-Enhance green                         Identifying effective, practical and acceptable                                       based on understanding of                                         Bristol/Oxford/Stockport City
space where                            means of suburban re-design to reduce                                                 technical performance (e.g.                                         Councils
effective in the                       impacts of climate change.                                                            potential for carbon reduction,                                   ARUP
design of towns and                                                                                                          reduce heat, provide shade),                                      White design
cities to help                                                                                                               practicality (e.g. costs, scale,                                  Advisory group: DCLG, CABE,
                                      National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA)                                                   extent of re-modelling) and

6 http://downloads.theccc.org.uk.s3.amazonaws.com/ASC/CCC_ASC_Report_web_1.pdf
7 The Sustainable Urban Environment (SUE) programme (EPSRC, £40m, 2004 - 2010) was18 multidisciplinary consortia that investigate all aspects of improving sustainability in the urban environment including: waste, water management,
transport planning and strategy, spatial planning, regeneration and stakeholder engagement. http://www.epsrc.ac.uk/about/progs/pes/sue/Pages/default.aspx
8 Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARCC) programme (EPSRC, UKCIP, ESRC, £12million, 2009-2013) comprises 14 research projects concerned with the probable effect of climate change on buildings and infrastructure.

9 Uk Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) coordinatse the ARCC Co-ordination Network between researchers and stakeholders to increase the efficacy of dissemination of research. http://www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk/




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manage surface                           (Defra, NERC, ESRC, WAG, SG, 2009-2011,                                             acceptability (e.g. impact on                                    RTPI, Consulting Excellence
water drainage and                       £1.2m) includes a comprehensive overview of                                         house prices, visual intrusion).                                 SW, Forum for the Future,
cope with rising                         the extent of green spaces.                                                                                                                          Modern Built Environment
temperatures and                                                                                                                                                                              KTN, Improvement and
heatwaves.                                                                                                                                                                                    Development Agency for Local
                                                                                                                                                                                              Government (IDeA)
-Manage competing                    Social and Environmental Economic                                                  Method to incorporate market and                               SEER
pressures on land –                   Research (SEER) into Multi-Objective Land                                           policy pressures of rural land use                              Defra
urban, natural and                    Use Decision Making; (Defra, ESRC, £1.8m,                                           (for agriculture and forestry).
agricultural – in                     2010-2014): Economic assessment of (a) the                                         Predictions of agricultural incomes                            Adapting Rural Living and Land
response to a                         primary effects of policy, market or                                                in different land use scenarios.                               Use to Environmental Change
changing climate.                     environmental change upon land use (e.g.                                                                                                           (RELU Phase IV) is fundamentally
                                      economic impacts on rural livelihoods) and (b)                                     Model to predict land use decision                             about engaging with stakeholders
                                      the consequences of that land use change on                                         making at the level of an individual                           through (1) Building networks and
                                      secondary factors (e.g. GHG release/ uptake;                                        farm.                                                          capacity for knowledge exchange
                                      diffuse pollution, ecosystem services,                                             Model of the impacts of land use                               and learning between researchers
                                      biodiversity, outdoor recreation services).                                         and farm activity change on                                    and policy makers, businesses,
                                     Rural Communities Adapting and Living                                               agricultural greenhouse emissions                              practitioners, local communities
                                      with Climate Change (RELU Phase IV)10                                               and sequestration.                                             and public, and (2) promoting
                                      Impacts on rural communities of (i) climate                                        (RELU Phase IV) Methods to                                     novel partnerships for
                                      change mitigation and adaptation policy (ii)                                        engage with rural communities                                  interdisciplinary research.
                                      alternative practices, and (iii) environmental                                      around likely acceptance of                                     Welsh Assembly
                                      changes associated with climate change.                                             mitigation/ adaptation strategies,                              Defra
                                     Building Adaptive Strategies for                                                    adoption of new sustainable                                     Scottish Government
                                      Environmental Change in River                                                       practices and how knowledge                                     UKWIR
                                      Catchments. How to engage stakeholders to                                           generated through research can be                               Environment Agency
                                      facilitate sustainable agricultural practices                                       most effectively transferred into
                                      (RELU Phase IV).                                                                    useful policy and practice.


10Rural Economy & Land Use (RELU) is an interdisciplinary research programme (NERC, BBSRC, ESRC, Defra, SG, £m, 2004-2011)to inform future policy and practice with choices on how to manage the countryside and rural economies
http://www.relu.ac.uk/. RELU phase (IV) is called Adapting Rural Living and Land Use to Environmental Change (£1.4m, 2010-2011)




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2. Providing national infrastructure (energy, water, transport, waste and communications)
What is the issue?     What are the research goals?                          What are the outputs?                     Links to policy/business users.
-Ensure                Energy infrastructure/Waste                            Virtual environment in which to test    UK ITRC
infrastructure can     infrastructure/Communications infrastructure            strategies for long term investment     The consortium has set up links
cope with rising        UK ITRC: UK Infrastructure Transition                 in national infrastructure and          with government agencies and
temperatures               Research Consortium (ARCC). The research            understand how alternative              industry bodies who will also help
                           will deal with energy, transport, water, waste      strategies perform & what risk of       to support the research, promote
                           and information and communication                   failure.                                the findings and make sure that
-Resilient to
                           technologies (ICT) systems at a national scale,    Different network adaptation            recommendations are taken up:
potential increases
                           developing new methods for analysing their          strategies – tested for vulnerability   AEAT, Arup, Atkins, Black and
in certain extreme
                           performance, risks and interdependencies.           – under a wide range of                 Veatch, Halcrow, JBA, Mott
weather events,
                           Develop transport scenarios and test resilience     technological, socio-economic and       MacDonald, MWH, Royal
such as storms,
                           of network adaptation strategies                    climate futures.                        Haskoning, Parsons Brinckerhoff,
floods and droughts
                                                                                                                       Swanbarton, Bam Nuttal, Costain.
                                                                              UK transport scenarios for 2050
-Takes account of      Transport infrastructure                                which demonstrate alternative           FUTURENET
                                                                               futures of transport provision.
changing patterns of    FUTURENET: Future Resilient Transport                                                          Network Rail
consumer demand          Networks (ARCC). Consider the nature of the          Case study – the effect of climate       Highways Agency
in areas such as         UK transport system in 2050, both in terms of         change on the transport system           IMechE
energy and water         its physical characteristics and its usage. What      including points of vulnerability &      WSP
use, travel and          will be the shape of the transport network in         identification of network adaptation
consumption.             2050 that will be most resilient to climate           options for resilience.
                         change?
                       Water infrastructure                                   Model of water supply/ demand            Anglian Water, Southern
                        ARCC-Water: Water System Resilience                   and transfer (between different           Water, Essex and Suffolk
                         (ARCC). An integrated ‘whole system’                  water utility regions) to assess the      Water, Thames Water, Three
                         approach to water resource planning in SE             vulnerabilities of water                  Valleys Water
                         England, modelled under different demand              infrastructure systems and assess        Environment Agency, Defra,
                         projections and under different climate change        effectiveness of adaptation options.      OFWAT, Natural England
                         scenarios. What portfolio of infrastructure and      Portfolio of adaptation options          UKWIR
                         demand management options ensure a secure             (demand-side, supply-side,               Water UK



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                          water supply (i.e. that has increased reliability      infrastructure /technology solutions)      WWF
                          and reduced vulnerability to failure) and also         to ensure reliability of water             WaterWise
                          enhances the environment?                              supplies whilst considering costs,         Tynemarch
                                                                                 carbon use, environmental                  Aquaterra
                                                                                 sustainability, social acceptability
                                                                                 and policy/regulatory framework.
3. Designing and renovating buildings
What is the issue?     What are the research goals?                           What are the outputs?                      Links to policy/business users.
- Ensure buildings     Climate projections & models for urban areas            Sets of probabilistic weather years      PROMETHEUS
can cope with rising    PROMETHEUS; The use of probabilistic                   for 2030, 2050 and 2080 for               Jacobs UK
temperatures and          climate data to future proof design                   various locations across the UK           Building Research
floods and minimise       decisions in the buildings sector (ARCC).             based on the UKCP09 projections–            Establishment (BRE)
water use through         Develop probabilistic reference years that can        includes wind direction and wind          Department for Children
appropriate use of        be understood and used by building designers          speed data for the building sector          Schools and families
construction              to study the thermal performance of buildings         (distributed by CIBSE).                   CIBSE
materials and             under future conditions.                             Understanding of needs/ hurdles           RIBA
through better                                                                  faced by practitioners when using         Constructing Excellence
design.                                                                         probabilistic data in building sector.   COPSE
                        COPSE: Coincident Probabilistic climate
                         change weather data for a Sustainable built           New climate data for use by               IES
                         Environment (ARCC). Method for deriving                building design practitioners             EDSL
                         weather data for building designers that is            developing a new design reference         Design Builder Software Ltd
                         based on future data rather than observational         year, taking into account urban           Derrick Braham Associates
                         records.                                               heat island effect.                       Bristol City Council
                                                                               Case studies of new-build and             3DReid
                                                                                refurbishment projects: plant size        Faber Maunsell
                        PROCLIMATION: The use of probabilistic
                                                                                implications; natural ventilation         Burro Happold
                         climate scenarios in building environmental
                                                                                provision; daylight and solar use,        Aedas Architects Ltd
                         performance simulation (ARCC). To develop
                         and implement methodologies for combining              potential for carbon reduction.           Feilden Clegg Bradley
                         probabilistic weather data with existing building     Methods for combining probabilistic       Hoare Lea R&D
                         analytical procedures (e.g. simulation of              weather data with existing building       King Shaw Associates




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   building energy and thermal comfort                   analytical procedures (e.g.           Roger Preston Environmental
   performance).                                         simulation of building energy and     CIBSE
                                                         thermal comfort performance) to      PROCLIMATION
                                                         inform risk-based decisions.          CIBSE
                                                                                               Ove Arup
Building design - general                               Design and decision tools to enable Innovation Platform
 Low Impact Buildings Innovation Platform               holistic building design.             Govt dept. and bodies (e.g.
   (TSB, £53m, 2009-2014) helping the UK                Better materials and components:       Design Council), devolved
   construction industry design and deliver              filling in the gaps in what is         administrations
   buildings that meet the targets set by CLG, and       commercially available with           UK Green Building Council,
   are resilient to climate change.                      improved buildability, performance    Trade bodies and professional
                                                         and cost                               institutions
                                                        Build process: adapting the supply    Zero Carbon Hub
 The impact of increasing change in wind                                                      Modern Built Environment
   patterns on building design and                       chain and build process to deliver
                                                         low-impact buildings quickly,          Knowledge Transfer Network
   operations? (LWEC Systematic Review                                                         Carbon Trust
   NERC,TSB, £30k, 2009-2011) A summary of               economically, at scale, and with low
                                                         levels of defects                     Energy Technologies Institute
   the evidence for end-users.
                                                                                               Energy Efficient Buildings
                                                        Management and operation of
                                                                                                Public Private Partnership
                                                         buildings: ensuring that low-impact
Building designs to minimise water use                                                          (E2B PPP)
                                                         buildings perform as they were
                                                        designed to
                                                        Low-carbon energy sources:
                                                         integrating them into low-impact
                                                         buildings and the supply grid.
Rising temperatures and building design                 Model heat from buildings and their SCORCHIO
 SCORCHIO: Sustainable Cities: Options for              surroundings in order to develop a    Manchester City Council
   Responding to Climate Change Impacts and              new heat and human comfort            Greater Manchester Authorities
   Outcomes (part of ARCC). Tools that use the           vulnerability index.                  Sheffield City Council
   latest forecasts to help planners, designers,        GIS tool to identify future heat     LUCID
   engineers and users to adapt urban areas -            hazards at the building,              Greater London Authority



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  emphasis on heat and human comfort.                  neighbourhood and city scale for          CABE
 LUCID: The Development of a Local Urban              use by local authorities and others       Max Fordham LLP
  Climate Model and its Application to the             to aid long term design and               CIBSE
  Intelligent Development of Cities (part of           planning in urban areas.                  Lancefield Consulting
  ARCC). To understand the impact of local            Tools to model the impact of local        Fielden Clegg Bradley Studios
  temperature on energy use in buildings – and         climate in urban areas - decision          LLP
  comfort, and on air quality and health.              support framework to aid decision       Environment Agency
 Low Carbon Future: Decision support for              makers.                                 Fulcrum
  building adaptation in a low carbon climate         Method for adequately sizing           Low Carbon Future
  change future (part of ARCC). Practical              HVAC (heating, ventilating, and air-    Bennetts Associates
  design method for adapting existing and new          conditioning) plant and equipment       Fulcrum Consulting
  buildings to future climates without need for        in buildings.                           SMC Parr
  sophisticated statistical knowledge by designer.    Practical guidance and design tools     Turner and Townsend
 Schools Climate Change Adaptation Study              for schools: how to avoid               Land Securities Trillium
  (part of 'Impacts of Climate Change in the UK,       overheating in new and existing         CIBSE
  and Adaptation Options' programme’, Defra,           school buildings; how to improve        CIRIA (Construction Industry
  £120k plus match funding, with approximately         external areas.                           Research and Information
  £500-700k funding for demonstration projects).                                                 Association)
                                                                                               BSRIA
                                                                                               RIBA
Flooding and building design                          Develop model of property              DOWNPIPE:
 DOWNPIPE: Design Of Water Networks                   drainage system and use rainfall         Arup
   using ProbabilistIc PrEdiction (part of             data to more accurately identify the     Buro Happold
   ARCC). Use of probabilistic climate scenarios       loads on drainage systems, where         Chartered Institute of Plumbing
   in decision making for adaptation of building       flooding might occur and its likely       and Heating Engineering
   and property drainage.                              extent.                                  CIRIA
                                                      Decision-making tool to facilitate       National Archives of Scotland
                                                       cost-effective design and                Paisley Abbey
 The impact of climate and extreme events
  on local-scale flood risk for individual
                                                       adaptation of property drainage          Scottish Water
  developments (LWEC Systematic Review
                                                       systems.                                 Scottish & Northern Ireland
                                                      A summary of evidence for end-            Plumbing Employers Federation



                                              66
                        NERC, TSB, £30k, 2009-2011).                          users on the impact of climate and     Society of Public Health
                                                                              extreme events on local-scale flood     Engineers
                                                                              risk for individual developments       World Plumbing Council
4. Managing natural resources sustainably
What is the issue?   What are the research goals?                          What are the outputs?                    Links to policy/business users.
- Using water more    LWEC leads on the UK Water Research and              Map of water-relevant research that       Defra, DECC, DfID
efficiently            Innovation Framework (UKWRIF) Facilitates             has been funded by LWEC                   Environment Agency
                       collaboration and joint initiatives around issues     members.                                  UKWIR
                       such as: regulation of water; innovation; water                                                 Halcrow
                       resource management, on national and                                                            Scottish Water
                       international scale. Innovation Pipeline:                                                       Southwest Water
                       improve the translation of research into use
                       and to address skills and capacity issues
                       across the different users and uses of water.
- Making space for    LWEC leads on UK Flood Research Strategy.            Projections of river flows in major    Future flows
water along rivers     (NERC, EA, 2010-) To make best use of UK              rivers across England and Wales in      UKWIR
and the coast          research investment and contribute to the UK’s        2050s.                                  Defra, Environmental Agency
                       understanding of both the causes of flooding         Education materials to engage
                       and responses to it.                                  coastal communities with sea level
                      Future Flows and Ground Water levels (part            rise and requirement for
                       of 'Impacts of Climate Change in the UK, and          adaptation.
                       Adaptation Options' programme’, Defra, EA,           Simulator to assessment of the
                       NERC, £761k, 2009-2012) Assessment of the             impact of sea level rise in East
                       impact of climate change on river flows and           Anglia.
                       groundwater levels to be used for water
                       resources management, regulatory decision
                       making and others(fish, ecology, navigation,
                       channel morphology, water quality modelling).
                      Communities at risk of coastal flooding and
                       erosion (part of 'Impacts of Climate Change in



                                                                     67
                         the UK, and Adaptation Options' programme,
                         Defra, £50k) Engaging coastal communities
                         with the UKCP09 Projections and will develop
                         and test messages and components of
                         presentations and graphics on adaptation.
                        Tyndall Coastal Simulator is an operational
                         tool to assess the impact of sea level rise in
                         East Anglia for use in coastal management by
- Improving/            National Ecosystem Assessment (Defra,             Future scenarios of how                 Defra
extending ecological     NERC, ESRC, WAG, SG, 2009-2011, £1.2m)             ecosystems and services might
networks so species      Future scenarios of how ecosystems and             change with time (and climate
can adapt and move       services might change and policy responses.        change).
as the climate          Resilience of ecosystems to environmental         Summary of evidence on the
changes                  change (Systematic Review, Defra, 2009)            resilience of ecosystems to
                        Collaborative Conservation in Agri-                environmental change.
                         Environment Schemes (RELU Phase IV).
                         Explore whether collective agri-environment
                         scheme contracts would allow neighbouring
                         land mangers to jointly conserve environment –
                         thus protecting a wider area/species’ range
5. Effective emergency planning
What is the issue?     What are the research goals?                       What are the outputs?                    Links to policy/business users.
-Making better use     Probabilistic weather forecasts                     UK Climate Projections                  Defra/DfID
of probabilistic        Integrated Climate Programme (DECC,                (UKCP09) Data is focussed on the
weather forecasts to      Defra, DfID, UK Met Office, £72m, 2007-2012)      UK, and is free of charge.
anticipate extreme        Tailored advice on the nature and impacts of      Projections of: temperature,
weather events            climate change in UK and globally to UK           precipitation, air pressure, cloud
more effectively          government developing climate change              and humidity, sea level rise, storm
                          adaptation strategies. A key product are the UK   surge, sea surface and sub-surface
                          Climate Projections (UKCP09) which are            temperature, salinity, currents, and



                                                                     68
                                simulations from climate models to give              waves.
                                projections of future changes to the climate in     Weather Generator. Estimates of
                                the UK and the probability of each outcome.          temperature and precipitation with
                                                                                     smaller scales.
                            Extreme weather prediction
                             [Not LWEC accredited] NCAS Weather,
                               Challenge IV: Improving predictive capability
                               for high impact weather
                             [Not LWEC accredited] Met Office modelling
                               climate variability and predictability
-Create plans that           [Not LWEC accredited] CREW: Community                 Map of possible future extreme           British Damage Management
reduce impact on              Resilience to Extreme Weather.11 (EPSRC,               weather events (e.g. flooding,            Assoc.
and ensure                    2008-2011) Understand the probability of               heatwaves, subsidence, wind,             Association of British Insurers
continuation of care          current and future extreme weather events and          lightning); identify risk,
for the most                  their likely socio-economic impacts. Develop           vulnerabilities, barriers and drivers    Local authorities
vulnerable groups in          tools for improving the capacity for resilience of     that affect local communities – and
society during                local communities to the impacts of extreme            assess adaptive capacity.
heatwaves and                 weather events.                                       Models to support effective
floods.                      Flood, vulnerability and urban resilience: a           planning to cope with extreme
                              real-time study of local recovery following            weather (Case study – 6 south-east
                              the floods of June 2007 in Hull (ESRC,                 London boroughs)
                              EPSRC, EA, £150k, 2007-2009). Real-time               Interactive flood simulation
                              longitudinal study to understand the everyday          recovery tool which can be used to
                              experiences of individuals following the floods        train policy makers and emergency
                              of June 2007                                           planners (tested by the Cabinet
                                                                                     Office emergency planning team).
                                                                                    Archive of people talking about
                                                                                     their experiences of flood recovery.

11
 Community Resilience to Extreme Weather: www.extreme-weather-impacts.net




                                                                             69
- Creating plans and                     Communicating climate impacts                                                          UKCIP tools include:                           UKCIP work with wide-range of
developing business                       The UK Climate Impacts Programme                                                      Adaptation Wizard: steps to                   public and private sector
continuity plans                           (UKCIP) is partly Defra12 funded to provide                                            determine an organisations                    companies
based on high-                             organisations with guidance on how to initiate a                                       vulnerability to climate change/
quality climate risk                       decision-making process to help them to go                                             develop adaptation strategy.
information so that                        beyond raising awareness to undertaking
businesses can                                                                                                                   BACLIAT (Business Areas
                                           assessments, which then lead to the                                                    Climate Impacts Assessment
cope better with                           implementation of practical adaptation actions.
disruptions to their                                                                                                              Tool) helps users explore the
supply chains during                                                                                                              implications of climate change for
floods and damage                        Managing risk                                                                            their business or sector.
to assets from                            Centre in Understanding and Managing                                                  CLARA (Climate Adaptation
severe weather.                            Natural and Environmental Risks (EPSRC,                                                Resource for Advisors) helps
                                           ESRC, NERC, Defra, £1.2m, 2008-2011)                                                   business advisors to support SMEs
                                                                                                                                  in preparing for the impacts of
                                                                                                                                  climate change.
UNDERPINNING SCIENCE
What is the issue? What are the research goals?                                                                                       What are the outputs?                    Links to users in policy and
                                                                                                                                                                               business
-Improving climate                             Understanding climate processes                                                         The outputs from the JWCRP will        
prediction and reducing                         Joint Weather & Climate Research                                                       feed into building and assessing
uncertainty                                      Programme (Met Office, NERC, £13.6m,                                                   a high resolution global model for
                                                 2009-2014)                                                                             the variabiliy of weather from
                                                                                                                                        seasonal to decadal and on
                                                Integrated Climate Programme (UK Met
                                                                                                                                        extreme weather which, in turn
                                                 Office, DECC, Defra £72m, 2007-2012)
                                                                                                                                        will lead to climate predictions at
                                                 provides tailored climate change advice to UK
                                                                                                                                        a local, regional and global level.
                                                 government developing climate change
                                                 adaptation strategies.                                                                Improved predictions of the
                                                                                                                                        likelihood of floods and droughts.
                                                Identification and modelling of the

12   From Sept2011, the Environment Agency will be responsible for delivering Defra’s work on adaptation. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/news/headlines/




                                                                                                                      70
   processes that govern climate on multi-
   decadal to centennial time-scale (NERC, UK
   Met office, EA, £2.25 million, 2007-2015)
Impacts of climate change
 Changing water cycle (NERC, £10.1m, 2009-
   2014): How global water cycle is changing,
   better predictions for next decades of regional
   precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture,
   hydrological storage and fluxes. How local to
   regional scale environment will respond to
   changing climate and land use and consequent
   impacts on the sustainable use of soil / water.
 Quantifying Uncertainty in Predictions of
   Regional and Local Climate Change and
   Climate Impacts - EQUIP (NERC, Met Office,
   Env. Agency £1.5m, 2010-2012) Understand
   and develop guidance on the quality and value
   of current climate and impact predictions, plus
   a greater understanding of the limitations of
   these models. Quantifying future risk to crop
   production. Quantify impacts of changes in
   droughts and heat waves.




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