WINTER 1213layman by 9pDQ63

VIEWS: 0 PAGES: 28

									…WINTER PREVIEW 2012-13….
    ( for NON wx geeks)

   EXTREME OR NOT EXTREME

   THAT   IS THE QUESTION !!!!
 …WINTER 2009-10… 2010-11
featured lots of cold and at times
         significant cold

        WINTER 2011-12
the exact opposite winter 2009-10
      … and winter 2010-11
See that BIG PURPLE blob
  NORTH of Alaska? That
   featured called the PV
(Polar Vortex) stays up there
         al last winter.

  Normally that feature is over
eastern Canada. By staying up
 there it get all the super cold
    air stuck up there over
            Alaska

And it prevent any big cold air
outbreaks from getting into the
             US
   Now compare my
    explanation to
   someone’s else
‘EXPLANATION” of what
 went wrong Last winter

  Japan Tsunami Debris
 wave?? Folks that is just
 plain ‘ol Bravo Sierra (BS)
   you see WHY looking at Last
  winter is SOOOO Important ?
  If you cannot “ see it “ ..if you
explanation is some BS theory ..
   then how can you get THIS
 coming winter forecast right ?
AUTUMN PATTERN
  2012 (10/8/12)

 Research shows that OCTOBER
weather pattern are often clues for
      the upcoming Winter

But for some reason that is not the
 case with NOVEMBER weather
             patterns

So far the Upper air Jet stream
patterns are VERY different from
      what we saw last winter
This image shows TWO weather Models -- left side EUROPEAN
MODEL .. Right side GFS . This is for the END of OCTOBER

These maps says eastern US is going to turn WARM last week of
OCT into NOV but western US will turn cold. And western Canada
cold and SNOW. Often times.. Early cold and snow in western
Canada helps supply cold air for central and eastern US later in
the winter months
LETS TALK SNOW COVER
            OCT 15…
    ORANGE ACTUAL SNOWFALL …
        Blue = Above Normal Snow
BIG increase in snow cover over last 2 weeks
             EL NINO…

Most Winter forecasts that have already
been issued were heavily based on weak
   El Nino lasting through the Winter

  WEAK El Nino events OFTEN bring
  About colder & snowier then Normal
 Winters for some portion of the central/
             eastern CONUS
      BUT…

 Data shows the
 El Nino has died
off over last 21-30
       days
        LETS TAKE ABOUT THE CFS
                version 2.0
As a general rule over the last 20 years climate models
have been pretty bad and next to useless.
But CFS version 2.0 is different. WHY?

1. The CFS model in an ensemble of 16 runs AND based
   on the last 14 days.
2. The MONTHLY Model is based on 10 day time
   increments.
3. As conditions change so does the CFS Model. Is that a
   good thing or bad ?
At end of APRIL the CFS for JUNE 2012… showing
WET and cool over the midwest and hot over
pacific NW.
But.. once the CFS saw El Nino breaking down..
CFS did change BIG TIME.



                           20 MAY - 29 MAY 2012




The CFS Models runs
from last 10 days of MAY
show EXTREME HEAT
and DROUGHT
 CFS MODEL for DEC JAN
FEB seem to be awfully warm


                    This run for
                     DEC 2012
                    based on the
                    end of AUG
                    AND El Nino
                     still thriving
This run for
 JAN 2013
based on the
end of AUG
AND El Nino
 still thriving
This run for
 FEB 2013
based on the
end of AUG
AND El Nino
 still thriving
 The CFS Models
runs from OCT 6 to
OCT 16..

Shows cold air over
Canada in NOV and
a VERY WARM
WINTER Jan Feb
March of 2013 !!!

But with all the Big
changes happening
over last 2-3 weeks
new runs of CFS
Likely to be Much
colder
    WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS
For those that do NOT know what we mean by ANALOG years in the weather biz…
the term refers to the method of looking at SEVERAL key parameters in the
atmospheric then searching past (climate) for similar conditions. The idea here is to
give the forecast clues or TRENDS about what the upcoming season will look like.



SOMETIMES the analog works.. MOSTLY for stable
patterns.. But you have to key on the right “ things” in
the atmosphere to work on
WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS
        THE QBO
  the QBO quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is high level wind at the
 very top of the atmosphere ( 30 mb) that exists over the Equator that
 oscillates from East (negative QBO) to West ( Positive QBO) . A full
 cycle can take anywhere from 18 to 30 months . The strongest Positive
 values are usually around +15.00 or so while the strongest Negative
 values will exceed -25.00 or so. The QBO winds work there way
 down to into the Lower levels and affect weather patterns.


 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

 LINK FOR ACTUAL QBO DATA
 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data
  WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS
          THE QBO
                          strongly POSITIVE QBO values correlate to Non
JAN 2012 -16.07
                         Blocking weather patterns in the Jet stream
FEB 2012 -15.25
MARCH 2012 -16.74
APRIL 2012… -17.62       And strongly Negative QBO values in the cold
                         season Months = +AO and +NAO patterns
MAY 2012… -22.04
JUNE 2012…. -25.89
JULY 2012… -27.82        BUT… QBO values that are “weak” (-10 to +10)
                         strongly favor Blocking patterns over N Hemisphere
AUG 2012… -27.93
                         in the cold season months ( NDJFM)
SEPT 2012… -26.60
 QBO is beginning to
                         So… ASSUMING the OCT QBO values ( comes
weaken
                         out 11/5/12) will be “ rising “ (moving to zero) and
                         that trend continues for NOV values ( comes out
OCT 2012 ??              12/5/12) … what will the QBO be like in DJFM??
Data comes out 11/5/12

NOV 2012 ???
Data comes out 12/5/12
WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS
        THE QBO
  HIGH Probability that OCT values will be -20 to -25 and NOV values
 between -15 to -20.. But again this is FORECAST/ assumption

 This IMPLIES that QBO will be moving towards ZERO during JAN
 …FEB MARCH 2013 .

 SOOOOOO.. Lets look at ALL the QBO autumns with strongly - QBO
 values that rose to -10 or high (towards 0).



 QBO ANALOG WINTERS
 2003-04 1989-90 1984-85 1979-80 1970-71
SUMMARY OF MY EARLY
IDEAS for WINTER 2012-13
SUMMARY OF MY EARLY
IDEAS for WINTER 2012-13
SUMMARY OF MY EARLY
IDEAS for WINTER 2012-13
STARTING NOV 1… wxrisk.com Will be using the Prof
Zielinksi WINTER STORM INDEX SCALE

 this is a proven well research INDEX that can be used
all around the country. I will be posting more about it on
the web site soon

And S.E.C.S. --(SEX) Significant East Cost Snowstorm
newsletter a subscription service… with 2 levels of
coverage BASIC and ADVANCED

								
To top