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2013 CHAP REGIONAL WORKSHOPS
Please note that responses in the template should be brief. The Template is intended to present
a summary only.
SOUTHERN REGION
Current Humanitarian Context, ie situation at the time of the meeting/. Prioritization of humanitarian needs/
indicators:
Context Elements: List key elements of the humanitarian context and factors that influence this. Remember to
address both conflict and natural disaster.
Current Caseload: List affected populations, indicating the reason for their vulnerability and current number if
available (state if this is estimated rather than confirmed). You may indicate if the groups are currently assisted by
the humanitarian community
Current Humanitarian Factors influencing this Humanitarian
Context Needs/Indicators
Insecurity & ongoing conflicts -Limited employment -Increased AGE activities and
opportunities increased violence in the region.
-Limited access to primary & -Environmental for the
secondary education
investment national and
-Ongoing military operations
-Corruption in Government and international sources needed
line departments (level playing field).
-Foreign politics -Increased & protection issues in
-Living below the poverty line the region.
-Mistrust; Govt. and civilians
drifted apart
-Negative impact on education.
Especially for women. In 34
provinces of AFG produced more
than 150,000 high school
graduates in 2011. From that,
Kandahar Province produced
only0.12 percent! The province
has 137,000 registered students
only 37,000 of them are girls!
-Increased poverty in the region.
-Increased psychosocial problems
in the region. Especially
prevailing among women.
-Decreased access to education
and health facilities.
-People continue to lose their
livelihood and agriculture during
the period.
-Poor people take up poppy
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 1
cultivation (crash crop).
Reportedly loans given by
belligerents
-Reduced humanitarian access
-Increased mortality and
morbidity in the districts owing
to landmines in footpaths and
auxiliary routs leading to cities.
-Increased crimes in Provincial
capitals.
-Increased job cuts.
Deterioration of Health & -Lack of general health & -Increased number of confirmed
prevailing low level of hygiene awareness. polio cases in the region (end of
malnutrition -Limited or inaccessibility to September) is 15.
clinics/hospitals. -Increased mortality and
-Limited functioning health morbidity in rural areas of the
facilities. region.
-Lack of qualified medical -Increased malnutrition cases in
personal. the rural areas and cities of the
-Cultural restrictions. provinces.
-Poor economy. -Increased diseases outbreaks in
-Lack of awareness regrinding the region.
nutritional food. -Increased AWD/disease
-Drugs sold in pharmacies are not outbreaks in the districts and
regulated. No cold chains, drugs cities.
sold after expiry date, limited -In the recent MICS survey SR
number of qualified staffs in found with highest Acute
pharmacies. Lack of appropriate malnutrition at 29%!
management -Increased TB cases in the
-Immunization campaigns not provinces.
effective owing to insecurity -Increased reported HIV cases (9
confirmed cases in the region.)
-Decreased public awareness
campaigns regarding the risk
of diseases.
Low level of impact seen in -Avoid humanitarian principles -Majority of projects funded by
humanitarian/development by some NGOs funded by PRTs/Military are implemented
interventions. military/PRTs. by contractors (there is a need to
-Lack of professional human build capacity of NGOs/CBOs
resources in government and civil society)
departments and I/NGOs. -Low quality outcome.
-Misusing humanitarian Especially, seen in infrastructure
assistance. projects (PDC Meetings)
-Low level of communication
between civilian and government.
-Lack of credibility and
accountability in government and
some I/NGOs human resources.
-Low level of transparency in
project implementation.
Lack of constructive
management
-Culturally not sensitive while
implementing projects
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 2
Natural disasters -A master plan does not exist for -Increased instances of floods
government to address Natural and dryness in the region.
disasters (ANDMA?), PDMCs - Number of population
are not active. temporally displaced (within
-Poor maintenance of irrigation provinces)owing to lack of water
canals, drainages and sewage during dry months
systems. -Increased agricultural diseases.
-Land usage ignoring old water -Damage and destruction of
streams and irrigation systems houses/ shelters.
-Encroachment of Crown -Increased casualties.
property; illegal construction
CURRENT Caseload Table: I
# Description (in 2012) Population Affected Confirmed Nature of Assistance
(individuals)
1 Conflict induced IDPs 136,897 yes Food, NFIs by WFP,
2012 end August UNHCR & IRC
2 Floods 32,907 Yes Food, NFIs, Shelter &
medicine by (IOM,
UNHCR, WHO, Save the
Children, ARCS &
UNICEF)
3 Severe winter conditions 6,090 Yes NFIs (Winterization
material & family kits
by ADA, IOM &
UNICEF)
4 Dryness/lack of Water 1,512 Yes Food & NFIs, Hygiene
Kits by IOM & SC
Most Likely Scenario. ie: what the humanitarian community believes WILL happen over the next twelve months.
This scenario normally forms the basis for humanitarian planning, especially within the CHAP framework where
applicable.
1. Transition process (leading to 2014) taking place with difficulties
2. Government in SR, will remain in control mainly in Provincial capitals
3. Security situation in SR will remain Volatile & unpredictable (Security Level System 5, RED)
4. Blue and Green attacks will continue
5. Continuous support to Government activities by Black UN and UN will adopt a strategy of’ bankerization’.
6. Food insecurity in may pars of SR will remain the same
7. A significant decrease in infrastructure development projects in SR region
8. Flooding, snowfall, sand storms will take place as usual the population affected will be assisted by
humanitarians in SR
9. Similar pattern of identified Polio cases will be seen in SR.
10. Similar number of reported cases of AWD, TB, Measles will take place
11. Number of returnees arriving in SR (Kandahar from Pakistan) and Nimroz (from Iran) will remain the same.
12. Poppy cultivation remain the same in SR
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 3
Scenario elements: Indicate probable developments, and events that might trigger these, for the next twelve
months. Socio-economic, political, security, health, natural (chronic/sudden onset) elements should all be taken
into account. Indicate sub-regional/cross border implications where applicable and remember the potential impact
of external events.
Transition process (leading to 2014) taking place with difficulties
Gradual reduction of foreign troops; Afghan counter parts filling the gaps; some AGE leaders at district level joint
the peace process and at the same time, ANP joining AGE with sophisticate fire arms issued to them; harassment of
rural communities by ALP.
Government in SR, will remain in control mainly in Provincial capitals/district capitals
This is the pattern seen in the past in SR and this will remain to be the case
Security situation in SR will remain Volatile & unpredictable (Security Level System 5, RED)
If Govt do not negotiate with AGE and come to a consensuses, AGE will continue attacks (stand off, suicide IED,
VBIED). Business as usual!
Blue and Green attacks will continue
Transitional process to be on track, Blue has to train and transfer knowledge to Green. In this process, these
attacks can’t be ruled out.
Continuous support to Government activities by Black UN and UN will adopt a strategy of’ bankerization’.
According their mandate, Black UN will work closely with the Government to facilitate the transition and the peace
process. AGE will perceive UN as their enemies and legitimate targets. UN has already closing their offices in
Provincial capitals and concentrating in Kandahar.
Food insecurity in many parts of SR will remain the same
Generally, SR gas a dry climate (not necessarily a ‘draught’) water scarcity. Farmers depend of melting snow for
their cultivation. That said, draught condition of other region of Afghanistan will have a negative impact on food
arriving in SR. More importantly, SR depends on food and other essential supplies from Pakistan. Closure of border
in irrational manner will have a negative impact on FS in SR. This pattern will continue in 2013.
A significant decrease in infrastructure development projects in SR region
PRTs have already reduced their funding for infrastructure development interventions. This pattern will continue
running up to cut off time, which 2014!
Flooding, snowfall, sand storms will take place as usual the population affected will be assistive by humanitarians in
SR
SR doesn’t experience heavy snowfall, floods, earth quakes and other calamities. These events are predictable and
IACP is in place
Similar pattern of number of identified Polio cases will be seen in SR
Polio NID campaign continue to miss children in their immunisation campaigns. E.g. in Uruzgan 10 percent of
children were missed. Currently, Panjwai and Zarai districts of Kandahar Province are not accessible. This trend will
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 4
continue in 2013.
Similar number of reported cases of AWD, TB, Misdeals will take place
Past few years this trend has been seen and this will continue in 2013. However MOPH and health cluster will
continue to activate DEWS, awareness campaigns and capacity building of health staffs.
Number of returnees arriving in SR (Kandahar from Pakistan) and Nimroz (from Iran) will remain the same
This pattern will remain if not triggered by host countries.
Poppy cultivation remain the same in SR
Afghan Security forces will have less time to involve in coordinated Poppy irradiation campaigns. Alternative crops
such as Safran are still not considered as an option for quick money generating Poppy.
Rationale for the Scenario/Early Warning Indicators: show for each element of the scenario why the HRT believes
this element is possible, how (and by whom) developments are being monitored and which indicators are being
used.
1. Transition process (leading to 2014) taking place with difficulties
Gradual reported handovers reported by media. ANP & ANSF taking control.
2. Government in SR, will remain in control mainly in Provincial capitals
This is the prevailing situation in SR.
3. Security situation in SR will remain Volatile & unpredictable (Security Level System 5, RED)
This is prevailing situation. This will be monitored by Security incidents taking place by ANSO & UNDSS
4. Blue and Green attacks will continue
Reported incidents by media
5. Continuous support to Government activities by Black UN and UN will adopt a strategy of’ bankerization’.
According to their mandate UNMA support government activities e.g. Extension of ISAF engagements till October
2013. In line with perceived threats UN fortify their compounds and engage in implementing more security
measures.
6. Food insecurity in may pars of SR will remain the same
IPC, Food Security assessment report (done yearly), Food Price information by WFP (monthly), Terms of trade for
labour and wheat (monthly), Terms of trade for labour & wheat (yearly), Copying strategy index (yearly), Food
consumption score (yearly) and food production report (yearly). NRVA 2007-2008
7. A significant decrease in infrastructure development projects in SR region
Information from economic ministry SR. PRT funding information. Contacting contractors and their own
information
8. Floods, snowfall, sand storms will take place as usual the population affected will be assisted by
humanitarians in SR
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 5
Trend analysis of historical data. Natural disaster data, maps, surveys and assessments conducted in 2012, etc
9. Similar pattern of identified Polio cases will be seen in SR.
Health risk analysis done by the health cluster in October 2010. Historical data,
10. Similar number of reported cases of AWD, TB, Measles will take place
Health risk analysis done by the health cluster in October 2010. Historical data
11. Number of returnees arriving in SR (Kandahar from Pakistan) and Nimroz (from Iran) will remain the same.
PPVR database Pakistan, Amyesh information in Iran, UNHCR returnee monitoring, IOM database in Afghanistan ad
Pakistan and UNOPS return survey
12. Poppy cultivation remain the same in SR
UNODS reports and trend analysis of historical data, monitoring the AGE activity patterns (e.g. during Poppy
harvesting period there is less incidents reported)
Anticipated Caseload: Who will be affected by the developments and how? What impact will this have on
caseload figures (increase/decrease) and what are the projected new figures in each category.
SR CHAP 2013 MOST LIKELY AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS PLANNING FIGURES: Table .II
Population Affected Population Displaced
Scenarios Provinces Remarks
Most Worst Most Worst
Likely Case Likely Case
Conflict 182,250 324,000 76,950 243,000
Drought 85,514 213,785 23,322 77,740
Flood 322,350 752,150 102,078 322,350
Extreme Winter - - - -
Sand Storm Kandahar - - - -
Disease
Outbreaks 99,152 365,295 - -
Agriculture
Disease 47,827 348,740 - -
Total 737,093 2,003,970 202,350 643,090
Conflict 332,300 598,130 132,920 199,410
Drought 71,800 158,460 34,755 46,930
Flood 53,400 80,100 21,360 26,700
Extreme Winter - - -
Helmand
Sand Storm 3,765 7,530 - -
Disease
Outbreaks 114,435 149,615 - -
Agriculture 190,650 305,160 - -
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 6
Disease
Total 766,350 1,298,995 189,035 273,040
Conflict 15,200 21,000 3,650 5,350
Drought 39,500 54,500 2,800 4,000
Flood 5,600 7,400 1,650 2,400
Extreme Winter 60,500 79,500 1,500 2,050
Sand Storm Zabul - - - -
Disease
Outbreaks 5,300 7,000 650 840
Agriculture
Disease 10,700 14,400 - -
Total 136,800 183,800 10,250 14,640
Conflict 15,998 89,926 14,997 49,999
Drought 120,000 219,999 35,000 75,050
Flood 37,000 109,999 25,000 35,000
Extreme Winter 29,000 55,000 10,000 17,000
Sand Storm Urozgan - - - -
Disease
Outbreaks 21,500 34,999 - -
Agriculture
Disease 150,000 275,100 21,000 37,001
Total 373,498 785,023 105,997 214,050
Conflict 12,000 16,000 600 1,000
Drought 15,500 22,200 1,600 3,600
Flood 23,000 35,000 7,000 16,000
Extreme Winter 2,000 4,000 100 200
Sand Storm Nimroz 50,000 61,000 4,000 8,000
Disease
Outbreaks 8,000 16,000 - -
Agriculture
Disease 15,000 30,000 - -
Total 125,500 184,200 13,300 28,800
Worst Case Scenario: ie what is POSSIBLE, even if it may seem UNLIKELY, in the next twelve months given
the current humanitarian context. Try and think of the worst case and its consequences as this is what will
really allow us to assess preparedness. Sometimes the worst case does happen . . .
1. Severe floods causing disruption of human lives & property, farm animals, assets, and
infrastructure in SR
2. Increase food insecurity and population dying of hunger leading to complex emergency in
SR
3. Decreased Humanitarian space/access
4. Anarchy!
5. More returnee exodus from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 7
6. Increased number of Polio cases. Like manner other diseases such as AWD, Measles, TB,
etc
7. To address dire humanitarian needs NGOs start their own negotiations and signing of
MOUs with AGEs
8. Frequencies of Green attacks against Blue will take place leading to mistrust and seize of
training and technology transfer come to a hold.
9. Poppy cultivation increase in SR (especially in Hilmand Province)
Scenario elements: Indicate possible developments, and events that might trigger these, for the next
twelve months. Socio-economic, political, security, health, natural (chronic/sudden onset) elements should
all be taken into account. Indicate sub-regional/national implications where applicable and remember the
potential impact of external events.
Severe floods causing disruption of human lives & property, farm animals, assets, and
infrastructure in SR
Sever snow falls in the winter causing snow in mountains. Melting of these snows coupled with heavy
torrential rain causing severe floods leading to humanitarian catastrophe.
Increase food insecurity and population dying of hunger leading to complex emergency in SR
Continuation of dry conditions (severe water shortage) combined with declared drought
conditions in other regions of Afghanistan. Pakistan closing their boarder unilaterally and cutting
off essential supplies to population in Southern region. High fuel prices causing food prices to
increase. Communities selling their livestock and selling/eating grain & seeds kept for cultivation.
Mass displacement observed.
Decreased Humanitarian space/access
Negotiations failed between the government and Age at Kabul level and reflecting escalations of
fighting in SR. This will make access difficulties and humanitarian becoming vulnerable for attacks
from belligerents.
Anarchy!
Same as above. However, corruption from the authorities, criminality, kidnapping, IDPs and
population trying to move to adjoining countries and western countries can be seen in SR
More returnee exodus from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan
This can trigger as a result of declining diplomatic links with Afghanistan. Forcible repatriation can
take place.
Rationale for Scenario/Early Warning Indicators: show for each element of the scenario why the HRT
believes this element is possible, how (and by whom) developments are being monitored and which
indicators are being used.
1. Severe floods causing disruption of human lives & property, farm animals, assets, and
infrastructure in SR
Sever snow falls in the winter causing snow in mountains. Trend analysis of historical data. Natural disaster
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 8
data, maps, surveys and assessments conducted in 2012, etc
2. Increase food insecurity and population dying of hunger leading to complex emergency in
SR
IPC, Food Security assessment report (done yearly), Food Price information by WFP (monthly), Terms of
trade for labour and wheat (monthly), Terms of trade for labour & wheat (yearly), Copying strategy index
(yearly), Food consumption score (yearly) and food production report (yearly). NRVA 2007-2008
3. Decreased Humanitarian space/access
Access MAP, 3Ws Map, UNDSS access monitoring data
4. Anarchy!
No of Criminal activities (Police reports), Incident Reports (UNDSS & PRTS/ISAF ad Government), incidents
of people taking law into their own hands, establishment of Tribal Jirga system (taking decisions other than
govt Law).
5. More returnee exodus from neighbouring Iran and Pakistan
PPVR database Pakistan, Amyesh information in Iran, UNHCR returnee monitoring, IOM database in
Afghanistan and Pakistan and UNOPS return survey
6. Increased number of Polio cases. Like manner other diseases such as AWD, Measles, TB,
etc.
Health risk analysis done by the health cluster in October 2010. Historical data.
7. To address dire humanitarian needs NGOs start their own negotiations and signing of
MOUs with AGEs
N/A
8. Frequencies of Green attacks against Blue will take place leading to mistrust and seize of
training and technology transfer come to a hold.
N/A
9. Poppy cultivation increase in SR (especially in Hilmand Province)
When there in insecurity coupled with poverty Poppy Cultivation can increase.
Anticipated Caseload: Who will be affected by the developments and how? What impact will this have on
caseload figures (increase/decrease) and what are the projected new figures in each category.
Please see Table II (Shaded columns)
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 9
Humanitarian Consequences/ Capacity for provincial/ regional Constraints for response
Impact of Scenario sectoral response
Indicate only key areas in which Indicate whether there are Please indicate major
scenario may have humanitarian plans, mechanisms, or resources constraints
implications, ie: on humanitarian are in place to address the
access, on resources consequences, or whether these
(financial/human) or on overall need to be developed and/or
cluster/ sectors needs. there are major constraints.
Transition process leads to There are no plans to address Ambiguity and instability
Insecurity, Political instability this. Still the process is
and Economic down turn of ambiguous. Countries which
economy, provided troops might gradually
decrease funding. Continuous
funding needed for security
sector reform, judicial reform and
good governance. Transition
should reflect a citizen-
articulated vision. Awareness of
transition is not taken place at
grass root level.
Negative Impacts on Education Accelerated withdrawal of ISAF
(especially girls/women),
In a conflict situation, govt can
could risk lives and jeopardize the neglect this. Funding and
Health and other sectors
gains women have achieved recourses for humanitarians
can be a challenge
Humanitarian agencies have a
Increased conflict leads to a Getting information from deep
deterioration of security Contingency Plan to address
issues of conflict induced IDPs. field locations is a constraint.
situation, displacements, and an
expansion of conflict to stable
areas in the country hampering
the developmental progress and
increasing the demand for
humanitarian interventions.
Humanitarian access become a Information is not coming
challenge when protection and Delivery of humanitarian from military about population
delivering humanitarian aid to assistance can be done through
LNGOs (3Ws come into play). Civ- displaced owing to ongoing
the displaced populations.
military coordination is in place operations. Swift response to
affected population can
become difficult
Unemployment /Job cuts; There are no adequate plans to
low investment leading to a revitalise local economy and
negative impact on economy. vocational training facilities.
Extreme weather and difficult Government and military
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 10
terrains, events impair the Though there is extreme cold, might deliver humanitarian
delivery of essential health and there are no avalanches in SR. assistance to ‘win hearts &
nutrition services to affected However in Zabul & Uruzgan minds’ violating Oslo guide
populations. provinces, roads can be blocked lines.
for few days. Winterization plans
are being developed.
Humanitarian are capable of
assisting
Food insecurity due to Generally, SR has a dry climate. Getting information swiftly is a
prolonged dry conditions, Depending on melting snow for problem (from Zabul &
sudden restrictions of cultivation. It is a natural Uruzgan).
commercial food arriving from phenomenon for streams to get
Pakistan, extreme weather dried. There is no plan in place
conditions with negative impact provide assistance to these
on affected population’s health
communities during lean months.
and nutrition status.
SR is endemic for Polio since
DEWS is in place. NID campaigns
Spreading of diseases. E.g. 1999. Some pockets are not
taking place. Health cluster
Polio, Measles, AWD accessible owing to insecurity.
informed that they are further
strengthening cross border Regular population movement
coordination & border to and fro form Baluchistan
vaccination posts. province of Pakistan to
Kandahar Province.
Lack of health facilities and
qualified health workers in
village level.
Discussions and feedback on the 2013 strategic objective outline.
Discussions to include relevance and appropriateness of the strategic objectives to the shared needs
analysis and the appropriate thresholds that distinguish between a humanitarian and a development
intervention. Reference can be made to the national level cluster recommendations / validation done on
each cluster recommendation. (Prioritized by HRT members. Pl see the numbers in RED)
1. Reinforce the Protection Improve access to basic health Thresholds: Afghanistan is a
of Civilians.1 services, protection of children disaster prone country (conflicts
(in schools, armed conflict, mine and natural disasters).
casualties, force recruitment by Population has coping
all belligerents). Proper mechanisms when these coping
contingency planning/ mechanisms couldn’t cope up
prepositioned food & NFIs, with emergencies humanitarian
education and awareness of the intervention is needed.
rights woman, men and children.
2. Reduce mortality and Improve nutrition response Thresholds: GAM & SAM
morbidity.3 activities, awareness, establishing
Nutrition cluster in SR, address
malnutrition (not talk the talk-but
walk the talk!), and emergency
preparedness. In SR health
facilities are lacking. Owing to
insecurity, there is an element of
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 11
insecurity. Selling of low quality
drugs by unqualified pharmacists.
3. Assist and protect the Provide basic health
Threshold: When IDPs &
displaced, returnees and services/screening for health
related issues including returnees settled with
host Communities.
nutrition/HIV-AIDS. Assist in reintegration process
4
reintegration including development process will take
education, shelter & Land (to live place.
& Agriculture). Link them with
development actors.
Some participants felt that when Again, when 1,2,3 are
4. Improve means of
you address all other strategic
subsistence. 2 addresses and ongoing, means
objectives, there will be a
of “substance” will increase
positive impact on ‘improve the
means of subsistence.’ but identify with
“development”
Strengthen coping mechanisms,
5. Promote resilience. 5 emergency preparedness. This When 1,2 & 3 are taking place,
strategic objective indentify population live with dignity,
(somewhat linked to) with all resilience comes into effect!
other objectives especially with 4
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 12
General Observations/ Comments
1. In 2012 CAP HRT members were asked to comment on the situation of three areas namely: 1. Security,
2. Humanitarian access and 3. Provision of Humanitarian Assistance. In this, CHAP participants came into
consensus that situation has not change since 2012 all three areas. Pl. See below:
# Areas of Focus 2012 (changes since 2011) 2013 (Changes since May
2012)
1 Security Gotten Worse Remained the same
2 Humanitarian Access Improved Remained the same
3 Provision of Humanitarian Remained the same Remained the same
Assistance
2. When HRT members were asked to prioritize 2013 draft Strategic objectives, they rated
Strategic Objective four (Improve means of subsistence) as the second priority.
3. Majority of participants felt Strategic Objectives 4 & 5 to be more development oriented.
4. In group exercises, when HRT members were grouped according to Provinces, participants
were more active and came up with outputs reflecting realistic ground situations.
Afghanistan: SR Regional 2013 CHAP preparatory workshop (01/X/12) 13
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