FSNAU somalia by Ur3rt30v

VIEWS: 25 PAGES: 23

									    Food Security and
                               Livelihood-based
Nutrition Analysis Unit
               Somalia
                                 Food Security
                               Monitoring/Early
                              Warning in Somalia

                              Nairobi, 26 September, 2011



        EUROPEAN COMMISSION
             Food Security Analysis Unit (FSNAU)
                                                  Field Staff Distribution and Locations
Somali Livelihoods, Food Security and
    Nutrition Information and Analysis Unit
    •     Baseline Livelihoods Analysis
    •     Seasonal & Emergency Assessments
    •     Early Warning Monitoring
    •     Nutrition Situation Analysis
    •     Integrated Food Security Analysis
    •     Applied Research

1.   Information is Used to Inform:
     •    Humanitarian Appeals & Response
     •    Development Programming
     •    Project Monitoring
     •    Strategic Planning

2.   Total staff number: 68
     •    Field Analysts: 30
               14 Nutrition Analysts
               16 Food Security Analysts
     •    NBI Based Staff: 38
               Food Security Team
               Nutrition Team
               Data Systems Team
               Operation Support Team
     •    Network of Field Data Enumerators: 91
           Foundation of FSNAU Food Security and
                      Nutrition analysis
1.   Baseline description and
     understanding of livelihoods

2.   Main Components:
     •  Livelihood Assets & Strategies
     •  Coping, Seasonality, Gender
     •  Shocks & Hazards
     •  Early Warning Indicators
     •  Underlying Causes of
        Vulnerability

3.   FSNAU Information Products:
     •  Livelihood Zone Maps
     •  Livelihood Baseline Data
     •  Livelihood Zone Reports
     •  Livelihood Profiles
            Somali Livelihood Systems/Zones
 A total of 33 rural livelihood zones :
    o Riverine (5);
    o Agropastoral (14);
    o Pastoral (14)

 Total area under rural LZs: 634sq.km
    o Pastoral (74%);
    o Agropastoral (24%);
    o Riverine (2%)

 Total rural population: 4.5mln people
    o Pastoral (48%);
    o Agropastoral (43%);
    o Riverine (9%)

 Major concentrations of LZ populations:
    o Pastoral - North and Central (70%);
    o Agropastoral - South (88% );
    o Riverine - South (100%)
         Importance of Agriculture and Livestock in
                         Somalia
Food source of the poor:

 Farming LZ: 60-70% comes
  from own production of
  cereals

 Pastoral LZs: 15-20% (livestock
  products)

Income source of the poor:

 Farming LZ: 60-70% of crop
  sales, farm labour and zakat

 Pastoral LZs: 70-80% from
  livestock/livestock product
  sales, zakat
 Main Crops and Livestock Species
Crop Areas          Livestock areas
                 FSNAU Monitoring System
Seasonal: assessments - Deyr and Gu (primary data)
• Crop: Cereal (maize, sorghum) planting , harvesting, production; inputs
  and irrigation, cash crop production; cereal flow; stocks, post-harvest
  losses, etc.
• Livestock: rainfall performance, pasture conditions, water conditions and
  prices, migration patterns, livestock conception, calving/kidding, off-take,
  debt level, food and income sources, etc.


Monthly:
• Rainfall Performance – satellite imagery (Spot and NOAA), rain-gauges
  (Fewsnet and SWALIM), ground-truthing
• Cereal availability on the markets - primary
• Livestock and cereals prices, daily labour wage rates, import commodity
  prices, etc. - primary
• Cereal imports (cross-border and official through ports) - secondary
• Relief food assistance statistics - secondary
                                    Agricultural Seasonality



                                      Oct         Nov     Dec         Jan         Feb     Mar     Apr         May       Jun     Jul        Aug     Sep
Cereals                  Zone
                                            Deyr wet season             Jilaal dry season               Gu wet season                  Hagaa dry season
Irrigated maize          South
Rain-fed maize           South
Sorghum (Irrigated in
Hiran)                   South
Sorghum (long cycle)     NW
Rain-fed maize           NW

land preparation
planting
weeding
harvesting
                                              Oct       Nov     Dec         Jan         Feb     Mar     Apr     May       Jun    Jul       Aug     Sep
Cereals                 Zone
                                                 Deyr wet season              Jilaal dry season            Gu wet season          Hagaa dry season
Off-season sesame, Juba , Shabelle, Hiran
maize and cowpea and Gedo Riverine
                                    Pastoral Seasonality


Livestock Species        Oct     Nov    Dec   Jan     Feb      Mar   Apr   May    Jun   Jul       Aug     Sep
                          Deyr wet season      Jilaal dry season      Gu wet season           Hagaa dry season
Sheep&goat
Cattle
Camel

Conception

Calving/kidding

Peak of Normal Sales

Peak of distress sales



   Normal selling peak: 70 days window between the end of Ramadan and the beginning of Hajj
   Distress selling peak: end of Jilaal
                      Crop Assessment
District, Village questionnaires (KI, focus groups); Cereal flow
(traders, grain trade brokers, store owners, etc)
                  Pastoral Assessment
Key informant questionnaire on seasonal performance; Pastoral
households on herd dynamics, food source, debts, etc.
                                   Climate
                          Gu 2011 Rainfall Performance

                                   July 2011 NDVI Absolute
Gu 2011 RFE percentage of Normal
                                     Difference from LTM
                       Crop Performance (Gu 2011)



                                                                           Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera Gedo, July 2011




                                                                              Failed crop. Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011




Average Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July ‘11



                                                                     Average Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July ‘11
                            Cereal Availability (Gu 2011)

Calendar year cereal harvests in southern Somalia   Cereal Balance for Somalia(Mt. Tons)
       (1996-2011) compared to average
                                                                    Food Access in Crop Livelihoods (Gu 2011)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        North West -Trend in White Sorghum Prices
  SOSH Shabelle & Juba Riverine-Trends in White Maize                                                                                                                                                                                                    SLSH                                                                                                                                                                                        SOSH
                                                                                                             Prices                                                                                                                                                                        Hargeisa                                          Borama                                       Togwajale                                             Burao
25,000                                      Jamame                                                           Jiliib                              Qorioley                                                      Jowhar                                     8,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            14000

20,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            12000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6,000
15,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     10000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8000
10,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           6000
 5,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2,000
     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1,000                                                                                                                                                                                                            2000
                                Mar-05




                                                                   Mar-06




                                                                                                        Mar-07




                                                                                                                                    Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-11
          Jul-04




                                           Jul-05




                                                                               Jul-06




                                                                                                                 Jul-07




                                                                                                                                             Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-11
                     Nov-04




                                                       Nov-05




                                                                                           Nov-06




                                                                                                                          Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                      Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nov-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0                                                                                                                                                                                                          0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov-10
                                                                                                                          Month

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Month
SOSH                          Sorghum Belt-Trends in Red Sorghum Prices                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Terms of Trade: daily wage to cereals
25,000
                                         Bardera                                                 Beletweyne                                               Baidoa                                                 Huddur
20,000


15,000


10,000


 5,000


    0
                              Mar-05



                                                                Mar-06



                                                                                                    Mar-07



                                                                                                                               Mar-08



                                                                                                                                                          Mar-09



                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-11
                   Nov-04



                                                    Nov-05



                                                                                        Nov-06



                                                                                                                      Nov-07



                                                                                                                                                 Nov-08



                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-10
         Jul-04



                                         Jul-05



                                                                            Jul-06



                                                                                                             Jul-07



                                                                                                                                        Jul-08



                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-11




                                                                                                                  Month
200,000
500,000




                                                 Pastoral Assessments



     Rahmo Camp. Coastal LZ, Beyla town, Bari region, FSNAU, July 2011




      Good body & pasture condition. Hawd Hargeisa, FSNAU July 2011




     Livestock Carcass. Nugaal Valley, Sool, FSNAU, July 2011
                                                                         LIVESTOCK
                                           Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
                                                 Calving/kidding              Milk production           Expected calving/ kidding
  Region             Conception                                                                                                           Herd Size Projection (up to Dec. ‘11)
                                                    ( Gu ’11 )                   ( Gu ’11 )                   (Jul-Dec ’11)
   NW        Camel: Low to Medium          Camel: Low                    Below average all regions,   Camel: Low                    Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
             Sh/goat: Medium               Sh/goat: Low except           but average in W. Galbeed    Sheep/goat: Medium            Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend for
                                           Golis/Guban: Low to           & Awdal                                                    all livelihoods, except Golis/Guban where all
                                                                                                                                    species are above Baseline)
                                           Medium
    NE       Camel : Low                   Camel: Low                    Sh/goats: Low                Camel : Low                   Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
             Sh/Goat: Low to Medium        Sheep/Goats: Medium with      Camel: Below Average         Sh/goats: Medium              Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
             with exception of Coastal     exception Sool and Coastal
             Deeh (Low)
                                           Deeh (Low)
  Central    Camel : Low to None           Camel : Low                   Sh/goats: Low                Camel: Low to None            Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
             Sh/Goat: Medium to Low        Sheep/Goat: Medium            Camel: Below Average         Sh/Goat: Medium to Low        Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
                                           Sh/Goat: Low to Medium
                                           for Coastal Deeh and                                       Cowpea Belt and Coastal
                                           Cowpea Belt                                                Deeh: Low to None for all
                                                                                                      species
  Hiran      Camel /Cattle: Low            Low to None for All species   Cattle/sh/goat: Very low     Camel : Low                   Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
             Sh/Goat: Low to Medium,                                     Camel: below averge          Cattle: Low                   Cattle: Below baseline (decreasing trend)
             except Agropastoral Low to                                                               Sh/Goat: Low to Medium        Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
             None
 Shabelle    Low for all species in all    Camel: Low                    Very Low for all species    Camel : Low                    All Species: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
             livelihoods                   Cattle: Low                                               Cattle: Low to None
                                           Sh/goat: Medium                                           Shoats: Medium
   Juba      Camel /Cattle: Low to None    Camel: Low to Medium          Very Low cattle,            Camel: Medium to Low           Camel: Above Baseline (decreasing trend)
             Sh/goat: Low to Medium        Cattle: Low to None           sheep/goats but average     Cattle: Low to None            Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
                                           Sh/goat: Low to Medium        for camel                   Sheep/Goats: Low to            Sheep/goats: Below Baseline (increasing trend)
                                                                                                     Medium
  Gedo                                     Camel: Low to Medium          Camel: Below Average        Camel: Low                     Camel: Below Baseline (Decreasing trend)
             Low to None for all species   Sh/goat and Cattle:           Cattle and Sheep:           Cattle, Sh/Goats: Low to       Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
                                           Low to None                   Significantly below average None                           Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)

Bay/Bakool Low to None for All species     Camel: Low to Medium          Camel: Below Average       Low for All species             Camel: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
                                           Sh/goat and Cattle:           Cattle and Sheep: Very Low                                 Cattle: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
                                           Low to None                                                                              Sh/Goats: Below Baseline (decreasing trend)
                                Food Access in Pastoral Areas
  Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Southern Regions                                                     Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central regions

                                                                                                                        NE            Central       NW (SLSH)




                                                                                                                                                                            Price per Head of Goat (SLSH)
                                                           Price per Head of Goat (SOSH)
                                                                                           1,600,000                                                              400,000

                                                                                           1,400,000                                                              350,000

                                                                                           1,200,000                                                              300,000

                                                                                           1,000,000                                                              250,000

                                                                                            800,000                                                               200,000

                                                                                            600,000                                                               150,000

                                                                                            400,000                                                               100,000

                                                                                            200,000                                                               50,000

                                                                                                            0                                                     0




                                                                                                                                       Month


Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Maize, Sorghum to Goat                                                            Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat
                                                                                                                          Central (Red Rice)       NE(Red Rice)
                                                                                                          100
                                                                                                           90
                                                                                                           80

                                                                                            Kg per Head    70
                                                                                                           60
                                                                                                           50
                                                                                                           40
                                                                                                           30
                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                           10
                                                                                                            0



                                                                                                                                        Month
                                                                                                       Livestock Exports
                                                               Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and
                                                                  Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
                                                                                                                                                                              Total Annual Livestock Exports
                                                       Camel Exports           Cattle Exports        Shoats Exports
                                                                                                                                                                               Compared to 5 Year Average
        Livestock Exports (Heads) in Thousands




                                                       Hargesia Price          Galkayo Price         Burao Price
                                                 550                                                                    80
                                                 500
                                                                                                                        70
                                                 450
                                                 400                                                                    60




                                                                                                                                Price Per Head (US$)
                                                 350                                                                    50
                                                 300
                                                                                                                        40
                                                 250
                                                 200                                                                    30
                                                 150                                                                    20
                                                 100
                                                                                                                        10
                                                  50
                                                   0                                                                    0



                                                                           Month

                                                              Berbera: Livestock Exports (Heads) and
                                                                 Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
                                                              Camel Exports         Cattle Exports     Shoats Exports
                                                              Hargesia Price        Galkayo Price      Burao Price
Livestock Exports (Heads) in Thousands




                           1,000                                                                                            80
                                                 900                                                                        70
                                                                                                                                                Price Per Head (US$)


                                                 800
                                                                                                                            60
                                                 700
                                                 600                                                                        50

                                                 500                                                                        40
                                                 400                                                                        30                                         * 2011 up to July
                                                 300
                                                                                                                            20
                                                 200
                                                 100                                                                        10

                                                   0                                                                        0



                                                                                     Month
        Oct-Dec seasonal rainfall forecast
 Sept. – Nov. 2011           Oct. – Dec. 2011        Nov. 2011 – Jan. 2012       Dec. 2012 – Feb. 2012




                                                                                           Source: ECMWF


1. In the most-likely scenario the Oct-Dec rains are expected to start on time and overall season
   totals are expected to be average, though rains during the second half of the season are likely to
   be less favorable.

2. The consensus-based climate outlook concluded on the 29th Forum of Greater Horn of Africa
   Climate Outlook (1-3 Sep. ’11) predicts near normal rainfall with a slight tendency to above
   normal in southern regions; near normal to below normal in Central and North, apart from
   Awdal region (near to above normal).
                                                                                                    20
Likely Price Movement in Southern Somalia (Sep-Dec 2011)
   Staple cereal prices and projections - Baidoa   Staple cereal prices and projections - Qorioley




                                                                                                     21
                       Food Security Outcomes
Food Security Outcomes (Aug – Sep ’11)   Projected Food Security Outcomes (Oct-Dec ’11)




                                                                                 22
Thank You

								
To top