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```					GEODEMOGRAPHY
the power of numbers
We are all drops in the ocean …
 Ifyou shook hands with people, night and
day, for the rest of your life you could only
meet about 1/5 of the people on the planet
(assuming handshakes last 2 seconds)
 In short, get a different job!
What’s wrong
with the table
at the left?
Global Population Distribution
Ecological aspect of
population density
Sparse populations
Some places too cold, too dry, too
rocky, etc.
Sparse rural settlement: Iceland
Sparse rural settlement: Iceland
Dense populations
Often in areas with good soils,
ample rainfall, and water access
Dense urban settlement

http://rose.ruru.ne.jp/pollux/natsu/natsuTop2.htm

Dense rural settlement
How useful is a map of
birthrate?
Not very…
Births and Deaths per minute
   Russia:     3 births - 4 deaths =     -1
   Japan:      2 births - 2 deaths =      0
   U.K.:       1 birth - 1 death =        0
   U.S.:       8 births - 4 deaths =      4
   Nigeria:    8 births - 3 deaths =      5
   Pakistan:   10 births - 3 deaths =     7
   China:      38 births - 16 deaths =   22
   India:      48 births - 17 deaths =   31

Somewhat more useful …what could make it
even more useful?
Annual Natural Change of
Population

What can we learn from this map? What can’t we learn?
Total Fertility Rate

What can we learn from TFR? What can’t we learn from TFR?
Is Global Population Growth a
Problem?
the world has more than enough
 “No,
resources if they are divided fairly”
   The planet can physically support more than
10 billion people as long as they all share
nicely.
 Assumptions:
   People are willing to share the resources they
have, especially with strangers.
    an optimistic view!
Let’s Get Real …
 Whereas the U.S. currently uses 25% of the
world’s resources …
 And whereas the other 95% of the world would
have to consume something like 5 times as
much as they do now in order to equal our level,
 And whereas their definition of an “adequate”
standard of living is not far below our own …
 The current growth of population is a problem.
Whose Problem is it?
 If the poor countries develop over the next
century to our levels of resource consumption,
then the total rate of resource exhaustion,
ecological disruption, and pollution is about 10
times higher than today.
 If the poor countries do not develop over the
next century but continue to double in population
every four decades, then we will have to deal
with massive social unrest stemming from abject
poverty, waves of poor immigrants, desperate
refugees, epidemics, and political chaos.
 It’s our problem as much as it’s “their” problem
Current Migration Flows
Total Fertility Rate

Zone of economic
insecurity
Why do insecure people have more
children?
   Often they are rural
   They seldom have access to the equivalent of
welfare, social security, Medicare, and
Medicaid
   Often they are members of oppressed ethnic
groups
   Their world is quite different from the world we
live in (religion, sex roles, economy, age roles,
knowledge about family planning, knowledge
about children’s health, etc.)
Consequences of these
considerations:
   Children are useful in agricultural economies
starting around 8 yrs. old
   When children (at least male children) grow up
they are expected to support their parents
   Leaders in oppressed ethnic groups often
advocate large families because they
recognize the power of numbers (a minority
that grows enough will no longer be a minority)
What are the consequences?
   People in many poor capitalist countries are
faced with a highly uncertain future
   Periodic food shortages
   Lack of employment
   Political instability and inadequate policing
   Diseases caused by lack of adequate sanitation
   Diseases caused by industrial pollution
   Lack of health care
 They “insure” themselves by having more
children than we consider “sensible”
 At the individual level, their actions are sensible
Population pyramids
What they are and what they can
tell us about society & culture in
different places
Average Age

Why are the Europeans so old? Why are the Africans so young?
Demographic Transition
What causes the demographic
transition?
 Urbanization
 Education
 Secularization
from subsistence to market economy
 Shift
 Government policies (in some cases)
Male-Female Ratio

What might cause a surplus of males or females?
50,000,000
Missing girls
Is the child in the poster (promoting China’s one-child policy) a boy or a girl?
Females are less than 50% in
some countries because:
   Where girls are fewer it is usually because of:
   Selective abortion
   Infanticide
   Deliberate neglect
   Favoring boys nutritionally
   Also, women’s natural longevity is negated by
   Early childbirth
   Frequent childbirth
   Lack of obstetric care
Average Marriage Age for Women
 Japan:
   26
 U.S.:
   25
 Mali     & Niger
   16
 Hausa      people living in Nigeria and Niger
   10-12
What impact do you think marriage
age has:
 On infant mortality?
 On family size?
 On women’s status in society?
 On women’s educational level?
 On health and disease levels?
Infant Mortality

If you could do one thing to reduce infant mortality what
would it be?
Education of Women
   Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by improving
the effectiveness of birth control
   Lowers TFR (and thus improves child care) by reducing
the need to have a boy as “insurance” against poverty in
old age
   Lowers maternal mortality rates (and thus improves child
care) by delaying the onset of childbearing
   Lowers maternal mortality making it easier for women to
leave abusive and/or promiscuous husbands (nutrition,
child care, and AIDS diffusion are affected)
   Lowers infant mortality and maternal mortality by
improving women’s ability to access a wide range of
information on medicine, hygiene, and nutrition
Contraception

Muslim countries have low contraception rates but do
not have high HIV infection rates. Why?
What would you predict about AIDS in Thailand?
“Mexico City Policy”
 NoUS funds (USAID) are given to NGOs
operating in foreign countries if they use
any funds (even non-US funds) to provide
abortions (excluding cases of rape, incest, & medical
emergencies), or counsel about abortion, or
lobby to keep abortion legal
New AIDS Cases per year

Effect of sex-
tourism industry

Effect of various social
factors and poverty
Factors Aggravating the Spread of
AIDS
   Sexism                             Poverty
   Rape                               Lack of access to birth
   Prostitution                        control
   Stigmatization                          counseling
   Failure to seek treatment
   Husband-wife transmission
education
   Mother-child transmission
   Human trafficking

   Misinformation
   False cures
   Denial
The Role of Disease on Population
 Disease’s  role is not always predictable
 Often people’s response to epidemic
disease is to “insure” themselves by
having more children
 For example, although the HIV infection
rate in some African countries is more
than one in three, the African population is
expected to double in 40 years.
The role of social conflict and
oppression
 People  in oppressed minorities nearly
always recognize that they would not be
oppressed if they were not a minority.
 Solution?
 Have lots of kids!
Quebec’s “Revenge of the Cradles”
(La Revanche des Berceaux)

   Catholic Church saw numbers as the key to survival
   Strategy called “la survivance”
   Ended when three things changed (1960s):
 Francophones got more power in Federal government

 Catholic Church lost power in Quebec

 Birth rate plummeted
Palestinians
   Gaza Strip’s population will quadruple to 4.8
million by 2050, West Bank is growing almost as
fast
   Palestinians will outnumber Israelis by 2036
   Considering lack of jobs and lack of arable land,
this will create massive dependency on foreign
aid unless these areas somehow become
booming industrial centers like Hong Kong or
Singapore
   Children growing up with no hope of leading a
happy life are coached to die a martyr’s death
   When will this unsustainable situation change?
Role of religion
 Laysdown standards pertaining to
reproduction, but people respond to these
standards in complex ways…
Catholics don’t always listen to
the Pope
   Political
conditions were
more important
than religious
factors in
shaping the
demographic
pattern in
Quebec.
Onset of decline in TFR
Three
guesses
what country
the town of
“Condom” is
Condom                      found in …
Actually, the name
appears to have
nothing to do with
the town, but the
map does have
something to do with
birth control
The role of economics
The Role of Nutrition
 “I   live on good soup, not on fine words.”
   Molière
The Role of Nutrition

Does vegetarianism lead to protein deficits?
Textbook suggests a tie to rice consumption
What could you infer from this map
of language families?
SUMMARY
   Many different measures of population need to be understood:
population density, birth rate, death rate, TFR, and natural increase
   Population growth reflects many causal factors: level of
urbanization, point in shift to capitalism, nutrition, attitudes about
gender and sexuality, access to birth control, social conflicts, ethnic
relations, and overall level of security
   TFR is often lowered by factors that, in the short term, increase the
rate of natural increase (such as public health measures)
   TFR is often raised by factors that, in the short term, decrease the
rate of natural increase (such as epidemic disease and famine)
   Top-down control over human reproduction, like in China, often
results in female infanticide and exacerbates the oppression of
women
   In short, we must be cautious to jump to conclusions about
population dynamics based on first impressions and guesses

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 views: 0 posted: 11/3/2012 language: English pages: 55
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