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A Screen Digest Cinema Intelligence Briefing Report Movie Sequels screendigest Movie sequels Published December 2004 by Screen Digest Limited screendigest Screen Digest Limited Lymehouse Studios 38 Georgiana Street London NW1 0EB telephone +44/20 7424 2820 fax +44/20 7424 2838 e-mail editorial@screendigest.com website www.screendigest.com Author: David Hancock Editor: David Hancock Layout: Fintan MacCarthy & Leander Vanderbijl All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, or stored in a retrieval system, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of cover or binding other than that in which is it published and without a similar condition (including this condition) being imposed on the subsequent publisher. Copyright © Screen Digest 2004 2 Printed by Fotodirect, Brighton BN1 8AF Contents 5 7 9 List of tables and charts 1 Executive summary 2 Introduction 3 Methodology 31 32 32 33 8 Box office headlines Genre Distributor Month Year 9 Release headlines 4 Sequel comparison 13 13 15 Sequel comparison: box office Sequel comparison: box office per title Sequel comparison: proportion of total revenues taken by first title in series 5 Time spans 17 18 Gap between individual movies Series length 6 Titles 21 Number of titles in a series 7 Sequel revenues 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Sequel box office drop off and revenues by genre Action Adventure Comedy Family Horror Romantic comedy Sci-fi 43 44 45 46 35 36 36 37 Genre Distributor Month Year 10 Burn rate headlines 39 39 41 42 Genre Distributor Month Year 11 Frontloading headlines Genre Distributor Month Year 12 Genre releases by US distributor 47 47 Leading distributors of sequels Distributor dominance of genres 13 Genre releases by release month 51 51 Monthly releases by genre Genre breakdown by month 3 www.screendigest.com © 2004 Movie Sequels 14 Monthly releases by US distributor 55 56 Distributor release by month Monthly releases by distributor 59 67 15 Appendix A: Sequel details + comparisons 16 Appendix B: Theatrical box office/admissions decay USA sequels/franchises 4 List of tables and charts 4 Sequel comparison 13 14 Top 10 sequel series Sequel comparison 5 Time spans 18 18 19 Gap between titles Time spans by genre in years Time spans—ranked by total time span 6 Titles 34 34 Average yearly box office by decade for sequels Sequels box office breakdown by decade 9 Release headlines 35 36 36 37 37 Sequel releases by genre Sequel releases by month Sequels release breakdown by distributor Sequels release breakdown by decade Sequels release breakdown by year 10 Burn rate headlines 22 23 Frequency of number of titles in a series Number in series 7 Sequel revenues 39 40 40 42 Burn rate by genre Burn rate by distributor Burn rate by month Burn rate by year 11 Frontloading headlines 25 26 28 Title development summary Box office evolution for series Title revenues development by genre 8 Box office headlines 43 44 45 46 Frontloading rates by genre Proportion of total box office accounted for by week by distributor Frontloading rates by month Frontloading rates by year 12 Genre releases by US distributor 31 31 32 32 33 Sequel box office breakdown by genre (box office) Sequel box office breakdown by genre Sequel box office breakdown by month Sequels box office breakdown by distributor Sequels box office breakdown by year 48 48 49 Genre breakdown by distributor Overall distributor's proportion of titles within genre Overall proportion of titles by genre for each distributor 5 www.screendigest.com © 2004 Movie Sequels 13 Genre releases by release month 52 52 52 Monthly breakdown by genre Overall proportion of total monthly releases by genre Overall breakdown of releases by month for each genre 14 Monthly releases by US distributor 57 57 58 Monthly breakdown by distributor Overall proportion of total monthly releases by distributor Overall breakdown of releases by month for each distributor 15 Appendix A: Sequel details + comparisons 59 63 64 65 Sequel details Sequel comparison ranked by total box office Sequel comparison ranked by average BO per title Sequel comparison ranked by percentage taken by first title 16 Appendix B: Theatrical box office/admissions decay USA sequels/franchises 67 GENRE: ACTION: Bad Boys Batman Blade Charlie's Angels Die Hard Fast and The Furious, The Highlander Indiana Jones Kill Bill Lethal Weapon Matrix Mission Impossible MIB Predator Rambo Rush Hour 70 71 72 73 74 75 68 69 76 Speed Spider-Man Spy Kids X-men GENRE: ADVENTURE Back to the Future Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone Lord of the Rings Mummy, The Scooby Doo Shrek GENRE: COMEDY: American Pie Analyze This Austin Powers Hot Shots! Legally Blonde Naked Gun Police Academy The Santa Clause Scary Movie Sister Act Wayne's World Genre: Family: Babe Beethoven Dr Dolittle Home Alone Muppet Movie Stuart Little Toy Story GENRE: HORROR: Blair Witch Project Friday the13th I know what you did last summer Jurassic Park Nightmare on Elm Street Scream GENRE: ROMANTIC COMEDY: Look Who's Talking GENRE: SCI-FI: Alien Ghostbusters Star Trek—The Movie Star Wars Terminator 6 screendigest © 2004 6 Titles Number of titles in a series The highest number of movies over a series between 1980 and 2004 is the Friday the 13th series, with 11 titles (this includes the last double header Jason vs Freddy). The total series gross is $309m, and the series was definitely flagging until the double header, showing what an innovative and effective marketing idea this was: $39.8m for first title and $13m for the tenth. The double-header Jason versus Freddy took $82.2m. The Star Trek series has 10 movies in it. The first Star Trek took $82.3m in 1979 and the last movie took $43.1m in 2002. The series took $750.6m in total. The final film's gross sounds adequate until the production budget of $70m is considered. Like all series, the film is counting on a hard-core of supporters to provide the revenues. The first in a series may attract a wide audience of (say) Star Trek followers and other interested viewers but by the tenth the non-enthusiasts will have been weeded out. Star Trek 9 still grossed $70m in the US, and the 38 per cent drop between ST9 and ST 10 indicates that even the hard-core followers are exhausting of the idea. One series of movies contained seven titles: Police Academy. The series began in 1984 and the first film grossed $81.2m. Over a ten year period, the series grossed $238.2m, although by the time the last one came along (Police Academy 7: Mission to Moscow), the concept had so alienated the audience that it took less than $1m at the US box office in 1994. By then, the actual production had been www.screendigest.com © 2004 passed on by the original producers Warner Bros to an indie outfit, Paul Maslansky Productions. If the aim of the resurrection was video revenues then the plan backfired slightly as it was eventually released by Warner Home Video 10 years after theatrical release (in 2004). There was a five year gap between Police Academy 6, which grossed $10m in US, and PA 7, whereas the previous titles had appeared at one a year. The budget for PA 7 was a lowly $10m but even then it could only make $3.5m at worldwide box office on top of $126,000 at US box office. There are two series that contained six films: Muppets and Nightmare on Elm Street (which actually had a seventh if we include the double-header Jason versus Freddy, which has been included under Friday the 13th series). Muppets began in 1979 and ended in 1999. There may be other ventures. The first film took $65.3m and the last one grossed $16.3m. In contrast, the Nightmare on Elm Street series released its six films in a seven year period, with revenues peaking with the fourth title Nightmare on Elm Street 4: Dream Master ($49.4m). The Star Trek series contains five titles so far (not including the re-releases of the first three films). Star Wars EP3 is due in May 2005. The series has been astonishingly successful, with the first film launching into public consciousness in 1977 (grossing $138.3m) and the idea enduring until the much-awaited release of Episode 3 in May 2005. It is true that Episode 2 took 28 per cent 21 Movie Sequels less in US theatrical revenues than Episode 1. The series was planned as a trilogy, and $310.7m is still a substantial amount of money, and thus there was no danger of a cancellation. It is fair to say that a drop of 28 per cent in gross revenues can lead to an ending of a series. There were four series that contained four titles: Lethal Weapon, Highlander, Alien and Batman. Of these Alien is the longest running, at 18 years. The majority of series in this research contain either two (50 per cent) or three (32.1 per cent) movies. This indicates how exceptional the above-named series are, in extending a series beyond the third title. The average number of titles in a series is 3.1. In terms of genres, sci-fi and horror have the highest average number in a series, standing at five titles. All other genres have an average of three titles in a series. Frequency of number of titles in a series 7 10 11 5 6 4 7.8% number of titles in a series 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Total Source: Screen Digest frequency proportion 2 3 28 18 4 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 56 50.0% 32.1% 7.1% 1.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% no. titles in a series Source: Screen Digest 22 screendigest © 2004 screendigest Global media intelligence Screen Digest is the pre-eminent source of business intelligence, research, and analysis on global audiovisual media. Screen Digest the journal has been published for more than 30 years and is read in over 40 countries. First and foremost, Screen Digest is a research company and publishes a rapidly growing number of major business reports on media markets. The company also offers continuous online research services providing searchable access to a vast database of global audiovisual market research information. In addition, Screen Digest provides a strategic consultancy service and has undertaken a wide variety of bespoke projects on behalf of numerous national and international organisations. www.screendigest.com R041201