Lord Christopher Monckton's Power Point Bethel University Global Climate Change Conference Oct 14 2009

							Apocalypse? NO!
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Dominion of Canada and United States of America 2
September/October 2009

"The seeker after truth does not put his trust in any old consensus: he questions it, and submits his learning from it to reason & demonstration."

banknotes .com

Scientific method
“The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin.”
T.H. Huxley

“You have to get the big ones

right,
dear!”
Margaret Thatcher

“We cannot question what the scientists say.”
Oliver Letwin, Tory policy chief
9

Yes We Can!
Barack Hussain alMonckton
10

… but don’t believe a word I say

11

Why the truth really matters

12

MALARIA
Global annual mortality Before the DDT ban: After the DDT ban: All excess deaths: 50,000 1,000,000

40,000,000
13

WHO lifted the DDT ban on 15 September 2006 “Quite often in this field politics comes first and science second. We must take a position based on the science and the data.”
Dr. Arata Kochi, WHO
14

HIV
25,000,000 dead (UNAIDS statistics) 40,000,000 infected (UNAIDS) 7.5% infected south of the Sahara 3.0% infected in Washington DC 1.0% is the epidemic threshold
15

Reuters
16

Hong Kong - 81 Japan - 81 Korea - 77 China - 71

US- 77

Indonesia - 67

Russian Fed. - 65

India - 63 Chad - 44

South Africa - 46

Africa

v. CO2 emissions (tons per capita)
18

Life expectancy (years)

Sierra Leone - 285 Chad - 200

Africa

India - 90

China - 36

Child mortality
(per 1000 born)

v. CO2 emissions
(tons per capita)
Japan – 9.4 Iceland – 7.7

USA - 8

19

Energy source:

African energy cycle

Energy transmission: Energy use:
20

If the threat is real, why need They lie?

21

We’re all gonna lie! “Unless we announce disasters, no one will listen.”

Sir John Houghton

We’re all gonna lie!
“We have to offer up scary scenarios”
Stephen Schneider
23

We’re all gonna lie!
“‘Global warming’ can mean colder. It can mean drier. It can mean wetter. That’s what we’re dealing with.”
Stephen Guilbeault, Greenpeace, 2005

We’re all gonna lah!
“Ah believe it is appropriate to have an overrepresentation of factual presentations on how dangerous it eeeuurzzz.”

Al Gore

The “Ah jes’ done made it all up” lah

Nahn
Gore
Sea level up 20 ft Pacific atolls evacuated Ocean conveyor to stop CO2 drove temperature Kilimanjaro melting Lake Chad drying up Katrina anthropogenic Polar bears drowning Coral reefs bleaching

Lahs:
Judge
Only after millennia No evidence for it It will slow, not stop The other way around By natural causes Not ‘global warming’ No proven link Storm killed 4 bears Many causes

The sealevel lah

IPCC: 6 cm sea-level rise from the great ice-sheets in 100 years. Gore: 610 cm:

100x error!

28

The lah nailed ‘The Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view.’
Grand Maximum

Gore disbelieves his own sea-level lah:

Al Gore’s $4m St. Regis condo by the sea, 2005

30

The polar bears lah
“A scientific study shows for the first time they’re finding polar bears that have … drowned, swimming long distances up to 60 miles to find the ice.”
31

The lah nailed
Grand Maximum

Sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea is growing

33

Warm: more polar bears. Cool: fewer polar bears.
Grand Maximum

The Kiluhmanjaruh lah:
“This is Mount Kilimanjaro more than 30 years ago, and more recently.”

Grand Maximum

Kilimanjaro summit temperature, 1979-2006
Grand Maximum

Cooling over central Africa, 1979-2001
NASA

Grand Maximum

More ice ablated away before 1936 than after
Grand Maximum

I’m still waitin’, Al, baby!

Some lies from the UN climate panel

40

The ‘Middle Ages were cooler’ lie
“A major person working in the area of climate change and global warming sent me an astonishing email that said, ‘We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.’”
David Deming, 2005

Now you see it …
IPCC (1990)

oC
Little Ice Age Mediaeval warmperiod

1000

1300

1600

1900 42

… now you don’t!
IPCC (2001)

43

How the UN bent the “hockey stick”

390x 1x
44

The computer always drew hockey sticks:
Temperature proxy data

Random red noise

45

“CENSORED_DATA” (and MWP) restored: MWP

46

NRC and EPA bent the data too ...

47

700 scientists: MWP was real

48

The “IPCC is peer reviewed” lie Grand
Maximum

The ‘2500 IPCC scientists’ lie
IPCC climate sensitivity estimate rests on just 4 scientific papers
CO2 forcing coefficient Planck parameter Feedback multiplier 1 paper 2 papers 1 paper

... just 4 papers, not 2500!

The ‘locked-in’ warming in the ‘in the pipeline’ lie
ΔTS,eq = 4.7 ln(836/368) = 3.9 Cº ΔTS,tra = [SPM3, sc. A2] = 3.4 Cº Warming in the pipeline = 0.5 Cº

The attribution lie

BEFORE (#1)
“No study to date has positively attributed all or part [of observed climate change] to anthropogenic causes.”
IPCC (1995)

The attribution lie

BEFORE (#2)
“When will an anthropogenic effect on climate be identified? It is not surprising that the best answer to this question is, ‘We do not know.’
IPCC (1995)

The attribution lie

AFTER
“The body of … evidence now points to a discernible human influence on global climate.”
IPCC (1995) rewrite

The “it’s getting worse” lie
25 yr 50 yr 100 yr 150 yr

IPCC (2007)

The lie nailed

Some lies from the scientific community
58

The startpoint lie
Atlantic Category 3, 4, & 5 hurricanes, 1970-2005
Webster et al., 2006

The lie nailed

Prediction lie, 1988
C 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
o

A B

C

This bogus graph started the scare Hansen (1988)

A: Hansen's worst case B : Hansen's likely outturn C : Hansen: CO2 stabilized D : Observed (US NCDC)

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010 2020

The lie nailed, 2006
C 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
o

A B

C D

Wrong then, wrong now
NCDC (2007)

A : Hansen's worst case B : Hansen's likely outturn C : Hansen: CO2 stabilized D : Observed (US NCDC)

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010 2020

NOAA ‘it ain’t cooling’ lie

The lie nailed:

NOAA ‘warming oceans’ lie
NOAA 2009

The lie nailed

ARGO, 2009

The ‘data revisionism’ lie
Grand Maximum

Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002)

2002
Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002) Wong, Wielicki, et al. (2006)

2006

The Arrhenius lie

5C

“Svante Arrhenius, the Swedish theoretical chemist, in 1897 ... calculated doubling the CO2 level ... would lead to a temperature rise round the globe. It was a brilliant piece of work.”
Sir David King, science advisor to Tony Bliar, 2005

5.0 C 1.6 C

Arrhenius (1906)

70

The ‘consensus’ lie: ‘Global warming’ will be catastrophic The lie nailed:
“Global climate change” papers: 539

Evidence for “catastrophe”:

0

Schulte (2008)

The “science is settled” lie:
1896 Arrhenius 5.0 C 1988 H ansen 4.2 C 1995 IPCC 3.8 C 2001 IPCC 3.5 C 2007 IPCC 3.26 C 2008 H ansen 2.5 C 1906 1.6 C Arrhenius 0.5 CMonckton, Armstrong+, Douglass+, Spencer+, Paltridge+, Lindzen+

2x CO2

The making cooling ...
Grand Maximum

RAW DATA

... into warming lie:
Grand Maximum

‘PROCESSED’

1999
Grand Maximum

2008
Grand Maximum

The dead-tree lie

78

Lying to children

“The more the CO2 in the atmosphere, the higher the temperature climbed. The less CO2, the more the temperature fell. You can see this relationship for yourself by looking at the graph.”
Laurie David (2007)

The truth about temperature

80

‘Global warming’

... a brief history
Prof. M.I. Bhat (2007)
81

For 600m years, it was 7 C warmer than today

82

4 interglacials were ~3 C warmer than the present
CO2
Petit et al., 1999

Temperature

83

Bronze Age, Roman era, Middle Ages: warmer too

Dansgaard et al. (1969) 84 and Schonweise (1995)

Temperature rose 2.2 ºC in the 35 years 1700-1735
Central England Temperature Series

... and just 0.6 C in 1906-2006
85

150 years’ data

The truth about today’s climate

87

Warming? What warming?

From Dr. Willie Soon (2007)

It’s cooling!
89

Arctic sea-ice extent is just fine: steady for a decade

Arctic summer sea-ice area is just fine: it is recovering from a 30-year low in 2007

Greenland ice sheet is just fine
“Colors indicate icesheet elevation change rate in cm/year … from … satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003. The spatially averaged increase is 5.4 0.2 cm/year.”
Grand Maximum

Johannessen et al. (2005)

93

Eurasian snow cover is just fine
Grand Maximum

Rutgers Snow & Ice Lab

Antarctic sea ice is just fine
Grand Maximum

University of Illinois

Global sea ice: is just fine: a 30yr heartbeat

University of Illinois

Hurricanes – just fine

Barrier Reef is just fine
Grand Maximum

The truth revealed: The latest science

99

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

UN is out of date

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

Computers must fail

It’s long proven that models cannot predict the climate

Pythagoras’ theorem is demonstrably true
Aryabhatta, 5th Century

Monckton, 2009

CHAOS!
“In view of the inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness of weather observations, precise, very-long-range weather forecasting would seem to be non-existent.” Lorenz (1963)

Even the simplest chaotic equation ...

f(z) 
Top left: Bottom right:

2 z

+c

c = 0.2500739507702906 + 0.0000010137903618 i c = 0.2500739507703702 + 0.0000010137903127 i Mandelbrot (1992)

… may complex

have output:

106

107

“No supercomputer, however powerful, is able to prove definitively a simplistic hypothesis that says the greenhouse effect is responsible for warming.”
Syun-Ichi Akasofu

Garbage in, garbage out!
High climate sensitivity is an input to the models, not an output from them: The models are tuned to assume a high climate sensitivity, so a high climate sensitivity is what they find. Akasofu (2008)

… and the last word on climate modeling
“In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” IPCC (2001)

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

It’s the Sun, stupid! 2

Changes in sunlight reaching the surface decide temperature changes

Grand Minimum to Grand Maximum: 300 years’ warming
Hathaway (2004)
Grand Maximum

Solar radiance at the surface vs. mean surface temperature
Grand Maximum

Correlation does not necessarily imply causation

The fact of warming does not tell us the cause

Solar changes cause most climate change The Sun caused today’s global warming Today’s warming is normal, not unusual Today’s global warming will end soon IAU (2004)

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

It’s not CO2! 3

‘Sinks’ take up half the CO2 we emit

CO2 is only a trace gas
CO2 in the atmosphere
as % by volume

1750 0.03%

2009 0.04%

Change +0.01%

CO2 concentration rise is half of what the UN has forecast

The sea is cooling
... but all UN models predict ocean warming

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

4

How ARGO buoys work IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

The oceans are cooling ...

... so sea level has not risen for four years

No ocean heat buildup for 50 years

Douglass & Knox, 2009

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

feedback is negative
... but all UN models predict positive feedback

Cloud albedo 5

Who would like to do some nice equations?

6 Missing ‘hot-spot’
The tropical upper air is not warming as predicted at thrice the surface rate

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

Natural solar forcing

Natural volcanic forcing Manmade ozone forcing 5 radiative forcings combined
130

Spot the ‘hot spot’
IPCC (2007)

Manmade greenhouse forcing Manmade aerosol forcing

Models predict the

‘hotspot’
Lee et al. (2007)

but it is not there:
Hadley Centre: HadAT2

?

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

MATH CHECK! 7

The entire atmosphere warms the Earth by only 33 F. Changing just 1/2000 of it can’t warm it by 6 F.

Grand Maximum

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
Kiehl & Trenberth (1997)

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

8
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar THE CLINCHER: radiance striking the ground climate sensitivity is low explain recent temperature changes

Warming related to change in outgoing radiation is 1/6 of all UN models’ prediction

If global mean surface temperature increases, IT’S THE SUN: changesescaping in solar will radiation radiance striking theto space – ground from Earth explain recent temperature changes

a) Increase? b) Remain unchanged? c) Diminish?

Lindzen & Choi (2009)

ΔFTOA (W m ΔF
(W m–2)

–2)

11 models
ΔT

ΔT

(K) SS (K)

Predicted ratio of warming to change in outgoing radiation

Lindzen & Choi (2009)

ΔF
(W m–2)

ΔTSS

(K)

Observed versus predicted ratio of warming to change in outgoing radiation

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

Sun 2

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

Sinks

3

Sun 2

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

Sinks

3

Sun 2

Seas

4

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes Clouds

5 4

Sinks

3

Sun 2

Seas

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground Hotspot explain recent temperature changes Clouds

6

5 4

Sinks

3

Sun 2

Seas

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground Hotspot explain recent temperature changes Clouds

Math

7

6

5 4

Sinks

3

Sun 2

Seas

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground Hotspot explain recent temperature changes Clouds

OLR 8

Math

7

6

5 4

Sinks

3

Sun 2

Seas

1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar

8

Unh, Houston ..! 6 5
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

7

3

2

4

Professor Antonino Zichichi “It is not possible to exclude the possibility that the observed phenomena may have natural causes. It may be that man has little or nothing to do with it.”

IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes

IPCC admits ...

“Climate has always varied on all time-scales, so the observed changes may be natural.”

Whom the Gods would destroy ...

152

... they first make mad:

‘We’re seeing the reality of a lot of the North Pole starting to evaporate. ... They have lanes now where ships can go that couldn’t ever sail through before. ... There’s a lot of tundra that’s being held down by that ice cap.’

John Holdren

The effects of a new ice age on agriculture and the supportability of large human populations scarcely need elaboration here. ... A sudden outward slumping in the Antarctic ice cap, induced by added weight, could generate a tidal wave of proportions unprecedented in recorded history.

The population paradox

156

“Sea level will rise by 75 meters”
James Hansen

“The debate is over. The science is certain. Now we must act.”

The traffic-light tendency ... … call themselves Green … … because they’re too yellow … … to admit they’re really Reds

The cost of untruth: the death of freedom
161

Pointless trillions

Tiny effect on temperature

163

Tiny effect on sea level

164

The ‘clunkers plan saves money’ lie
25 mpg vs. 15 mpg @ 12,000 miles/yr: x 700,000 clunkers: / 40 gall/barrel: x $72/bbl x 5 yr: – scrappage cost: = net loss on plan: 320 gall 224m gall 5.6m bbl $2 billion $3 billion $ 1 billion

Less research is needed

169

$80 billion squandered

170

Worse crises than climate
Global Islamic terrorism Chinese neo-militarism Russian neo-imperialism Mass economic migration Security of energy & water supply Environmental degradation Natural resource depletion Bad Third-world government Drugs and people trafficking HIV, malaria, TB, MRSA, C.Diff. Bureaucratic centralism vs. democracy Nationalization of capital

‘Public policy could itself become the captive of a scientifictechnological elite ... The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.’

OMNIS SPIRITVS
LAVDET DOMINVM

173

174