Apocalypse? NO!
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Dominion of Canada and United States of America 2
September/October 2009
"The seeker after truth does not put his trust in any old consensus: he questions it, and submits his learning from it to reason & demonstration."
banknotes .com
Scientific method
“The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin.”
T.H. Huxley
“You have to get the big ones
right,
dear!”
Margaret Thatcher
“We cannot question what the scientists say.”
Oliver Letwin, Tory policy chief
9
Yes We Can!
Barack Hussain alMonckton
10
… but don’t believe a word I say
11
Why the truth really matters
12
MALARIA
Global annual mortality Before the DDT ban: After the DDT ban: All excess deaths: 50,000 1,000,000
40,000,000
13
WHO lifted the DDT ban on 15 September 2006 “Quite often in this field politics comes first and science second. We must take a position based on the science and the data.”
Dr. Arata Kochi, WHO
14
HIV
25,000,000 dead (UNAIDS statistics) 40,000,000 infected (UNAIDS) 7.5% infected south of the Sahara 3.0% infected in Washington DC 1.0% is the epidemic threshold
15
Reuters
16
Hong Kong - 81 Japan - 81 Korea - 77 China - 71
US- 77
Indonesia - 67
Russian Fed. - 65
India - 63 Chad - 44
South Africa - 46
Africa
v. CO2 emissions (tons per capita)
18
Life expectancy (years)
Sierra Leone - 285 Chad - 200
Africa
India - 90
China - 36
Child mortality
(per 1000 born)
v. CO2 emissions
(tons per capita)
Japan – 9.4 Iceland – 7.7
USA - 8
19
Energy source:
African energy cycle
Energy transmission: Energy use:
20
If the threat is real, why need They lie?
21
We’re all gonna lie! “Unless we announce disasters, no one will listen.”
Sir John Houghton
We’re all gonna lie!
“We have to offer up scary scenarios”
Stephen Schneider
23
We’re all gonna lie!
“‘Global warming’ can mean colder. It can mean drier. It can mean wetter. That’s what we’re dealing with.”
Stephen Guilbeault, Greenpeace, 2005
We’re all gonna lah!
“Ah believe it is appropriate to have an overrepresentation of factual presentations on how dangerous it eeeuurzzz.”
Al Gore
The “Ah jes’ done made it all up” lah
Nahn
Gore
Sea level up 20 ft Pacific atolls evacuated Ocean conveyor to stop CO2 drove temperature Kilimanjaro melting Lake Chad drying up Katrina anthropogenic Polar bears drowning Coral reefs bleaching
Lahs:
Judge
Only after millennia No evidence for it It will slow, not stop The other way around By natural causes Not ‘global warming’ No proven link Storm killed 4 bears Many causes
The sealevel lah
IPCC: 6 cm sea-level rise from the great ice-sheets in 100 years. Gore: 610 cm:
100x error!
28
The lah nailed ‘The Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view.’
Grand Maximum
Gore disbelieves his own sea-level lah:
Al Gore’s $4m St. Regis condo by the sea, 2005
30
The polar bears lah
“A scientific study shows for the first time they’re finding polar bears that have … drowned, swimming long distances up to 60 miles to find the ice.”
31
The lah nailed
Grand Maximum
Sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea is growing
33
Warm: more polar bears. Cool: fewer polar bears.
Grand Maximum
The Kiluhmanjaruh lah:
“This is Mount Kilimanjaro more than 30 years ago, and more recently.”
Grand Maximum
Kilimanjaro summit temperature, 1979-2006
Grand Maximum
Cooling over central Africa, 1979-2001
NASA
Grand Maximum
More ice ablated away before 1936 than after
Grand Maximum
I’m still waitin’, Al, baby!
Some lies from the UN climate panel
40
The ‘Middle Ages were cooler’ lie
“A major person working in the area of climate change and global warming sent me an astonishing email that said, ‘We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.’”
David Deming, 2005
Now you see it …
IPCC (1990)
oC
Little Ice Age Mediaeval warmperiod
1000
1300
1600
1900 42
… now you don’t!
IPCC (2001)
43
How the UN bent the “hockey stick”
390x 1x
44
The computer always drew hockey sticks:
Temperature proxy data
Random red noise
45
“CENSORED_DATA” (and MWP) restored: MWP
46
NRC and EPA bent the data too ...
47
700 scientists: MWP was real
48
The “IPCC is peer reviewed” lie Grand
Maximum
The ‘2500 IPCC scientists’ lie
IPCC climate sensitivity estimate rests on just 4 scientific papers
CO2 forcing coefficient Planck parameter Feedback multiplier 1 paper 2 papers 1 paper
... just 4 papers, not 2500!
The ‘locked-in’ warming in the ‘in the pipeline’ lie
ΔTS,eq = 4.7 ln(836/368) = 3.9 Cº ΔTS,tra = [SPM3, sc. A2] = 3.4 Cº Warming in the pipeline = 0.5 Cº
The attribution lie
BEFORE (#1)
“No study to date has positively attributed all or part [of observed climate change] to anthropogenic causes.”
IPCC (1995)
The attribution lie
BEFORE (#2)
“When will an anthropogenic effect on climate be identified? It is not surprising that the best answer to this question is, ‘We do not know.’
IPCC (1995)
The attribution lie
AFTER
“The body of … evidence now points to a discernible human influence on global climate.”
IPCC (1995) rewrite
The “it’s getting worse” lie
25 yr 50 yr 100 yr 150 yr
IPCC (2007)
The lie nailed
Some lies from the scientific community
58
The startpoint lie
Atlantic Category 3, 4, & 5 hurricanes, 1970-2005
Webster et al., 2006
The lie nailed
Prediction lie, 1988
C 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
o
A B
C
This bogus graph started the scare Hansen (1988)
A: Hansen's worst case B : Hansen's likely outturn C : Hansen: CO2 stabilized D : Observed (US NCDC)
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 2020
The lie nailed, 2006
C 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
o
A B
C D
Wrong then, wrong now
NCDC (2007)
A : Hansen's worst case B : Hansen's likely outturn C : Hansen: CO2 stabilized D : Observed (US NCDC)
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 2020
NOAA ‘it ain’t cooling’ lie
The lie nailed:
NOAA ‘warming oceans’ lie
NOAA 2009
The lie nailed
ARGO, 2009
The ‘data revisionism’ lie
Grand Maximum
Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002)
2002
Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002) Wong, Wielicki, et al. (2006)
2006
The Arrhenius lie
5C
“Svante Arrhenius, the Swedish theoretical chemist, in 1897 ... calculated doubling the CO2 level ... would lead to a temperature rise round the globe. It was a brilliant piece of work.”
Sir David King, science advisor to Tony Bliar, 2005
5.0 C 1.6 C
Arrhenius (1906)
70
The ‘consensus’ lie: ‘Global warming’ will be catastrophic The lie nailed:
“Global climate change” papers: 539
Evidence for “catastrophe”:
0
Schulte (2008)
The “science is settled” lie:
1896 Arrhenius 5.0 C 1988 H ansen 4.2 C 1995 IPCC 3.8 C 2001 IPCC 3.5 C 2007 IPCC 3.26 C 2008 H ansen 2.5 C 1906 1.6 C Arrhenius 0.5 CMonckton, Armstrong+, Douglass+, Spencer+, Paltridge+, Lindzen+
2x CO2
The making cooling ...
Grand Maximum
RAW DATA
... into warming lie:
Grand Maximum
‘PROCESSED’
1999
Grand Maximum
2008
Grand Maximum
The dead-tree lie
78
Lying to children
“The more the CO2 in the atmosphere, the higher the temperature climbed. The less CO2, the more the temperature fell. You can see this relationship for yourself by looking at the graph.”
Laurie David (2007)
The truth about temperature
80
‘Global warming’
... a brief history
Prof. M.I. Bhat (2007)
81
For 600m years, it was 7 C warmer than today
82
4 interglacials were ~3 C warmer than the present
CO2
Petit et al., 1999
Temperature
83
Bronze Age, Roman era, Middle Ages: warmer too
Dansgaard et al. (1969) 84 and Schonweise (1995)
Temperature rose 2.2 ºC in the 35 years 1700-1735
Central England Temperature Series
... and just 0.6 C in 1906-2006
85
150 years’ data
The truth about today’s climate
87
Warming? What warming?
From Dr. Willie Soon (2007)
It’s cooling!
89
Arctic sea-ice extent is just fine: steady for a decade
Arctic summer sea-ice area is just fine: it is recovering from a 30-year low in 2007
Greenland ice sheet is just fine
“Colors indicate icesheet elevation change rate in cm/year … from … satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003. The spatially averaged increase is 5.4 0.2 cm/year.”
Grand Maximum
Johannessen et al. (2005)
93
Eurasian snow cover is just fine
Grand Maximum
Rutgers Snow & Ice Lab
Antarctic sea ice is just fine
Grand Maximum
University of Illinois
Global sea ice: is just fine: a 30yr heartbeat
University of Illinois
Hurricanes – just fine
Barrier Reef is just fine
Grand Maximum
The truth revealed: The latest science
99
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
UN is out of date
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
Computers must fail
It’s long proven that models cannot predict the climate
Pythagoras’ theorem is demonstrably true
Aryabhatta, 5th Century
Monckton, 2009
CHAOS!
“In view of the inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness of weather observations, precise, very-long-range weather forecasting would seem to be non-existent.” Lorenz (1963)
Even the simplest chaotic equation ...
f(z)
Top left: Bottom right:
2 z
+c
c = 0.2500739507702906 + 0.0000010137903618 i c = 0.2500739507703702 + 0.0000010137903127 i Mandelbrot (1992)
… may complex
have output:
106
107
“No supercomputer, however powerful, is able to prove definitively a simplistic hypothesis that says the greenhouse effect is responsible for warming.”
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
Garbage in, garbage out!
High climate sensitivity is an input to the models, not an output from them: The models are tuned to assume a high climate sensitivity, so a high climate sensitivity is what they find. Akasofu (2008)
… and the last word on climate modeling
“In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” IPCC (2001)
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
It’s the Sun, stupid! 2
Changes in sunlight reaching the surface decide temperature changes
Grand Minimum to Grand Maximum: 300 years’ warming
Hathaway (2004)
Grand Maximum
Solar radiance at the surface vs. mean surface temperature
Grand Maximum
Correlation does not necessarily imply causation
The fact of warming does not tell us the cause
Solar changes cause most climate change The Sun caused today’s global warming Today’s warming is normal, not unusual Today’s global warming will end soon IAU (2004)
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
It’s not CO2! 3
‘Sinks’ take up half the CO2 we emit
CO2 is only a trace gas
CO2 in the atmosphere
as % by volume
1750 0.03%
2009 0.04%
Change +0.01%
CO2 concentration rise is half of what the UN has forecast
The sea is cooling
... but all UN models predict ocean warming
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
4
How ARGO buoys work IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
The oceans are cooling ...
... so sea level has not risen for four years
No ocean heat buildup for 50 years
Douglass & Knox, 2009
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
feedback is negative
... but all UN models predict positive feedback
Cloud albedo 5
Who would like to do some nice equations?
6 Missing ‘hot-spot’
The tropical upper air is not warming as predicted at thrice the surface rate
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
Natural solar forcing
Natural volcanic forcing Manmade ozone forcing 5 radiative forcings combined
130
Spot the ‘hot spot’
IPCC (2007)
Manmade greenhouse forcing Manmade aerosol forcing
Models predict the
‘hotspot’
Lee et al. (2007)
but it is not there:
Hadley Centre: HadAT2
?
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
MATH CHECK! 7
The entire atmosphere warms the Earth by only 33 F. Changing just 1/2000 of it can’t warm it by 6 F.
Grand Maximum
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
Kiehl & Trenberth (1997)
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
8
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar THE CLINCHER: radiance striking the ground climate sensitivity is low explain recent temperature changes
Warming related to change in outgoing radiation is 1/6 of all UN models’ prediction
If global mean surface temperature increases, IT’S THE SUN: changesescaping in solar will radiation radiance striking theto space – ground from Earth explain recent temperature changes
a) Increase? b) Remain unchanged? c) Diminish?
Lindzen & Choi (2009)
ΔFTOA (W m ΔF
(W m–2)
–2)
11 models
ΔT
ΔT
(K) SS (K)
Predicted ratio of warming to change in outgoing radiation
Lindzen & Choi (2009)
ΔF
(W m–2)
ΔTSS
(K)
Observed versus predicted ratio of warming to change in outgoing radiation
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
Sun 2
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
Sinks
3
Sun 2
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
Sinks
3
Sun 2
Seas
4
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes Clouds
5 4
Sinks
3
Sun 2
Seas
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground Hotspot explain recent temperature changes Clouds
6
5 4
Sinks
3
Sun 2
Seas
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground Hotspot explain recent temperature changes Clouds
Math
7
6
5 4
Sinks
3
Sun 2
Seas
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
Models
radiance striking the ground Hotspot explain recent temperature changes Clouds
OLR 8
Math
7
6
5 4
Sinks
3
Sun 2
Seas
1 IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
8
Unh, Houston ..! 6 5
radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
7
3
2
4
Professor Antonino Zichichi “It is not possible to exclude the possibility that the observed phenomena may have natural causes. It may be that man has little or nothing to do with it.”
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar radiance striking the ground explain recent temperature changes
IPCC admits ...
“Climate has always varied on all time-scales, so the observed changes may be natural.”
Whom the Gods would destroy ...
152
... they first make mad:
‘We’re seeing the reality of a lot of the North Pole starting to evaporate. ... They have lanes now where ships can go that couldn’t ever sail through before. ... There’s a lot of tundra that’s being held down by that ice cap.’
John Holdren
The effects of a new ice age on agriculture and the supportability of large human populations scarcely need elaboration here. ... A sudden outward slumping in the Antarctic ice cap, induced by added weight, could generate a tidal wave of proportions unprecedented in recorded history.
The population paradox
156
“Sea level will rise by 75 meters”
James Hansen
“The debate is over. The science is certain. Now we must act.”
The traffic-light tendency ... … call themselves Green … … because they’re too yellow … … to admit they’re really Reds
The cost of untruth: the death of freedom
161
Pointless trillions
Tiny effect on temperature
163
Tiny effect on sea level
164
The ‘clunkers plan saves money’ lie
25 mpg vs. 15 mpg @ 12,000 miles/yr: x 700,000 clunkers: / 40 gall/barrel: x $72/bbl x 5 yr: – scrappage cost: = net loss on plan: 320 gall 224m gall 5.6m bbl $2 billion $3 billion $ 1 billion
Less research is needed
169
$80 billion squandered
170
Worse crises than climate
Global Islamic terrorism Chinese neo-militarism Russian neo-imperialism Mass economic migration Security of energy & water supply Environmental degradation Natural resource depletion Bad Third-world government Drugs and people trafficking HIV, malaria, TB, MRSA, C.Diff. Bureaucratic centralism vs. democracy Nationalization of capital
‘Public policy could itself become the captive of a scientifictechnological elite ... The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.’
OMNIS SPIRITVS
LAVDET DOMINVM
173
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