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					                                     The Outlook for Energy:
                                     A View to 2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
                         LEGAL DISCLAIMER -
                         This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future
                         conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy
                         supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the
                         development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes,
                         and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting
                         Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at:
                         www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's
                         internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as
                         well as publically-available information from external sources including the
                         International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or
                         reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All
                         rights reserved.




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Demographics by region
 Billions of people

 2.0
                 OECD                China   India   Africa


 1.6




 1.2                     Age 65+




 0.8

                      Age 15 – 64


 0.4



                      Age 0 – 14
 0.0
       2010                   2040




Source: World Bank
    Global GDP by region

                                     Trillions of 2005 dollars


                                     120



                                     100
                                                                                             Non OECD


                                       80



                                       60



                                       40

                                                                                             OECD
                                       20



                                        0
                                              1990      2000     2010   2020   2030   2040



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Energy demand by region
  OECD                                                     Non OECD
  Quadrillion BTUs                                         Quadrillion BTUs


  500                                                      500



                                                                                     Other Non OECD
  400                                                      400
                                                                                     Russia/Caspian

                                                                                              Africa
  300                                                      300
                                                                                        Middle East

                                         Other OECD                                    Latin America
  200                                                      200
                                                                                               India
                                        Europe OECD

  100                                                      100
                                                                                              China
                                        North America

     0                                                        0
     1990                        2015               2040      1990            2015                 2040



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Global energy demand by fuel type

      Quadrillion BTUs
       250

                            2040
       200

                            2010

       150



       100



         50



          0
                     Oil             Gas   Coal   Nuclear   Biomass/Other   Wind / Solar /   Hydro / Geo
                                                                              Biofuels



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Residential / Commercial




                                     40%
                                     By 2040, electricity will
                                     provide 40% of the
                                     world’s residential/
                                     commercial energy
                                     demand.




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Households by region in 2040

  Millions of households

    700


    600


    500
                        Households in 2010

    400


    300


    200


    100


       0
           N. America     Europe     Other   China   India    Latin    Middle   Africa   Russia/   Other Non
                          OECD       OECD                    America    East             Caspian    OECD




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Residential energy use per household

                                     Million BTUs per household


                                     80


                                                         OECD

                                     60




                                     40
                                                         Non OECD



                                     20




                                      0
                                      1990                        2015   2040



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Residential/commercial energy demand
  By sector                                              By region

  Quadrillion BTUs                                       Quadrillion BTUs

   150                                                   150



   120                                  Commercial       120                       Other Non OECD



    90                                                    90                         India & Africa



    60                                                    60                                China


                                        Residential

    30                                                    30
                                                                                            OECD


      0                                                    0
      1990                       2015             2040     1990             2015                  2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Residential/commercial energy shares
  OECD                                                       Non OECD

  Percent                                                    Percent

   100                                                        100


                                                                                                    Electricity*
     80                                    Electricity*        80

                                                                                                   Renewables
             Biomass/waste
     60                                                        60
                                          Renewables
            Coal                                                                                 Biomass/waste
     40                                                        40


                                                Gas                    Coal
     20                                                        20                                          Gas

              Oil
                                                                                                            Oil
      0                                                         0
      1990                         2015               2040      1990                      2015                 2040
          * Includes market heat                                 * Includes market heat


ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Transportation




     90%
     In 2040, 90% of global
     transportation will run on liquid
     petroleum-based fuels,
     compared to 95 percent today.




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Global road transportation demand

                                     Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day

                                     50
                                                                                  Commercial



                                     40


                                                                                                Non OECD
                                     30

                                                 Personal

                                     20



                                     10
                                                                                                OECD



                                       0
                                             2010         2040                    2010   2040



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Global transportation demand

                         Personal                                     Commercial
                         Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day   Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day

                          50                                           50
                                                                                                          Rail


                          40                                           40
                                                                                                      Marine


                          30                                           30
                                                                                                     Aviation


                          20                                           20


                                                                                                  Heavy Duty
                          10             Light Duty Vehicles           10                           Vehicles



                           0                                            0
                           1990              2015             2040      1990               2015              2040



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Heavy duty vehicle demand changes
                                     Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day

                                      40                Truck Efficiencies




                                                                                Other
                                      30                                      Operating
                                           Growing                             Factors
                                              GDP


                                      20




                                                                       Larger
                                      10                               Truck
                                                                        Size



                                       0
                                            2010                                          2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Transportation fuel demand
                                     Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day

                                     70                                         Other
                                                                        Electricity
                                                                  Natural Gas
                                     60
                                                          Fuel Oil                Jet Fuel
                                     50


                                     40
                                                                                    Diesel

                                     30


                                     20


                                     10                                           Gasoline


                                      0
                                      1990                        2015                   2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Light duty vehicle fleet by type

                                     Billions of vehicles

                                     1.6                     Natural gas/LPG

                                                             Plug-in/electric
                                     1.4


                                     1.2                                        Hybrid


                                     1.0                      Conv. Diesel

                                     0.8


                                     0.6


                                     0.4                              Conv. Gasoline


                                     0.2


                                     0.0
                                       2000                 2020                     2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Average on-road new car fuel efficiency
                                     Miles per gallon


                                     60                      Future targets



                                     50



                                     40


                                     30                                                   2010


                                     20


                                     10


                                      0
                                           United       Europe   China        Japan   India
                                           States




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Industrial




                                     25%
                                     Today, China accounts
                                     for one-quarter of global
                                     industrial energy
                                     demand. By 2040,
                                     however, its growth will
                                     have leveled off.




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Industrial demand by sector
  Quadrillion BTUs

   250


                                                                              Paint

   200
                                                                 Fertilizer
                                                  Plastics

   150

          Chemicals
                                                               Automobiles            Textiles
   100
                                        Steel
          Manufacturing &
          Industry
                                                                              Natural Gas
                               Liquid                   Coal
    50
                               Fuels
          Energy Industry
                                                                 Lubricants                 Asphalt
         Other
      0                                   Agriculture
      1990                                              2015                                      2040


ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Industrial demand
  By region                                                   Industrial fuel growth from 2010 to 2040
  Quadrillion BTUs                                            Quadrillion BTUs

   250                                                         70


                                                               60                                        Other
   200                                  Other Non OECD
                                                               50
                                                                                                         Gas

                                                               40
   150
                                          India & Africa
                                                               30
                                                                                                         Oil

   100                                           China         20

                                                               10                                        Electricity
    50
                                                 OECD           0
                                                                                                         Coal

      0                                                        -10
                                                                             OECD            Non OECD
      1990                       2015                  2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation




80%
By 2040, worldwide electricity
demand will be 80% higher
than it was in 2010.
    Electricity demand
  Electricity demand by sector                               Fuel into electricity generation
  Thousands of terawatt hours                                Quadrillion BTUs

   35                                                         300
                                                                                                     Wind
                                       Transportation

   30                                                                                       Other Renewables
                                                              250

   25
                                                              200                                    Nuclear

   20
                                Residential/Commercial
                                                              150
                                                                                                      Coal
   15

                                                              100
   10

                                             Industrial
    5
                                                               50                                      Gas


                                                                   Oil
    0                                                           0
    1990                        2015                  2040      1990                 2015                    2040



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Average U.S. cost of electricity generation in 2030
  Cost per kilowatt hour in 2011 cents


   20




   15

              At $60
              per ton
              of CO2
   10

           No
          CO2
          cost
    5




    0
             Coal           Gas           Nuclear   Onshore   Coal/CCS   Gas/CCS   Geothermal   Solar PV*     Solar
                                                     Wind*                                                  Thermal*
        * Wind and solar exclude costs for backup
        capacity and additional transmission.


ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Electricity generation by fuel
  United States                                   Europe                 China
  Thousands of terawatt hours

    8                                             8                      8




    6                                             6                      6
                                 Wind


                     Other Renewables
    4                                             4                      4
                                     Nuclear

                        Coal w/ CCS

    2                                             2                      2
         Coal                Gas w/ CCS

                                       Gas
       Oil
    0                                             0                      0
    1990               2015                2040   1990     2015   2040   1990    2015   2040



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Energy-related CO2 emissions
  By region                                                       By sector

  Billion Tons                                                    Billion Tons

   40                                                             40


                                                                                 Residential/Commercial


   30                                   Other Non OECD            30
                                                                                              Industrial


                                          India & Africa

   20                                                             20                     Transportation

                                                 China


   10                                                             10
                                                                                  Electricity Generation
                                                 OECD


    0                                                               0
    1990                         2015                      2040     1990          2015                     2040


ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

                         Tons per person

                         18     2010



                         15             2025



                         12
                                               2040


                          9



                          6



                          3



                          0
                                     United States    Europe   China   India



ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Supply




By 2040


60%
of global demand will be
supplied by oil & gas.
    Liquids supply by type
  Liquids supply by type                                                                  Global crude and
                                                                                          condensate resource *
  Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day                                              Trillions of barrels

  120                                                                                     5
                                                             Biofuels

  100                                              Natural gas liquids
            Coal/Gas-to-Liquids                                                           4
            and Refinery Gains                             Deepwater                                             Remaining
    80                                                       Tight oil                                           resource
                                                            Oil sands                     3

    60

                                                                                          2
    40
                                                        Conventional
                                                                                                                 Cumulative
                                                crude and condensate
                                                                                                                 production
                                                                                          1                      through
    20
                                                                                                                 2040


     0                                                                                    0
     1990                                2015                        2040


                                                                 * Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy                               use of this content was authorized by IHS.
    Global oil production by discovery date

    Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day

    100

                                                                                                               2000s

      80                                                                                                     1990s

                                                                                                    1980s
      60
                                                                                           1970s


      40                                                                       1960s


                                      1940s                 1950s
      20
                     1930s

            Discovered before 1930
       0
       1965          1970          1975          1980         1985          1990          1995     2000     2005       2010



Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data.
    Natural gas demand by region

                                     Billions of cubic feet per day

                                     600
                                                                                 Other
                                                                             Non OECD
                                     500

                                                                                     Russia/
                                     400                                             Caspian

                                                                                  Middle East
                                     300
                                                                                  Asia Pacific
                                                                                   Non OECD
                                     200
                                                                                 Other OECD

                                     100
                                                                                North America

                                        0
                                        1990                          2015                   2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Natural gas production by type

                                     Billions of cubic feet per day

                                     600



                                     500
                                                                                           Unconventional

                                     400



                                     300



                                     200
                                                                                           Conventional


                                     100



                                        0
                                               2000        2010       2020   2030   2040




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Gas supply growth by region from 2010 to 2040

  Billions of cubic feet per day

  100




    75                                                   LNG




    50                                                   Pipeline

                                                         Local
                                                         Unconventional
    25




     0
                                                         Local Conventional


   -25
          North America          Europe   Asia Pacific      Latin America     Middle East   Africa   Russia/Caspian




ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
    Global fuel mix by decade

     Percent
                                                             Other Renewables
      100

                                                                                   Nuclear
                                                                                   Hydro
        80
                                                                                   Gas


        60



                                                                                   Oil
        40




        20
                                                                                   Coal


                                                                                   Biomass
         0
             1800                    1850      1900   1950      2000            2040




Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

				
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