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A large expansion of credit and borrowing,
High level of investment, i.e., manufacturing or machinery
A rise in wages and profits so that the community’s income rises, and
Operation of the economy at optimum capacity.

Recession: It is a sharp slow down in economic activity, but it is
different from depression or slump which is more severe and prolonged
downturn.

Just as depression created the conditions of recovery, similarly, the
boom conditions generate their own checks. All idle factors have been
employed and further demand must raise their prices, but the quality is
inferior. Less efficient workers have to be taken on higher wages.

Rate of interest rises and so also of the necessary materials. The costs
have after all started the upward swing. They overtake prices ultimately
and the profit margins are first narrowed and then begin to disappear.
The boom conditions are almost at an end.

Then starts the downward course. Fearing that the era of profits has
come to a close, businessmen stop ordering further equipment and
materials. The prudent businessmen want to get out altogether and cuts
down his establishment ruthlessly. The government applies the axe
mercilessly. The bankers insist on repayment. The bottlenecks appear,
stocks accumulate. Desire for liquidity all round. This accentuates the
depression.

The trade cycle is depicted in the following diagram:
Theories of Trade Cycle:
Climatic Theory: It is said that there are cycles of climate. For some
years the climate is favourable and then comes an unfavourable turn.
Changes in climate bring about changes in agricultural production. The
cycle of agricultural production results in a cycle of industrial
activity, for industry is deeply affected by the state of agricultural
production.

One of the famous climatic theories is ‘Jevons’ Sunspot Theory’.
According to Stanley Jevon, spots appear on the face of the sun at
regular intervals. These spots affect the emission of heat from the sun,
which, in turn, conditions the degree of rainfall. The rain affects
agriculture, which, in turn, affects trade and industry. That is how
trade cycles are caused.

Psychological Theory: According to psychological theory of trade cycle,
there are moods of optimism alternating the moods of pessimism in the
economy, without any tangible basis. At some stage, people just think
that trade is good and that it is going to remain good. Business
activity is intensified and becomes feverish. Then, all of a sudden,
people start thinking that the period of prosperity has lasted long
enough and adversity is round the corner. Thus, although there was no
valid reason for depression to come about, but it is brought about by the
people themselves. It is all psychological.

Under-Consumption Theory: According to under-consumption theory, there is
too much of saving during a boom and further additions to saving reduce
the level of consumption. A reduction in the level of consumption, in
the face of increasing productive capacity, must sooner or later lead to
the collapse of the boom. This theory is associated with the names of J.
A. Hobson and Major Douglas.

Monetary Theory: R.G. Hawtrey was a firm believer in monetary theory.
According to him, variations in flows of money are the sole and
sufficient determinants of business activity and account for alternating
phases of prosperity and depression. When the business prospects are
good, the banks freely extent credit facilities. The businessmen go on
expanding their business, entering into further and further commitments
with the banks. A huge superstructure of credit is built up and this
superstructure can be maintained by cheap money conditions. But a point
reached, when banks think that they have gone a bit too far in the matter
of advances. Probably their reserve ratio fallen dangerously low. In
self-defence, they apply the brake, curb further expansion of credit, and
begin to recall advances. This sudden suspension of credit facilities
proves a bombshell in the business community. Businessmen have to sell
their stocks in order to repay. This general desire for liquidity
depresses the market, and may even led to bankruptcy for certain firms.

Over-Investment Theory: According to over-investment theory, fluctuations
in the rate of investment are the main causes of trade cycles.
Investment becomes excessive during the boom. That investment during the
boom is borne out by the fact that investment goods industries expand
faster than consumption goods industries during the upward phase of the
cycle. During the depression, investment goods industries suffer more
than consumption goods industries.

Keynes’ Theory: According to Keynes, the business cycle is a rhythmic
fluctuation in the overall level of income, output and employment.
According to him, fluctuations in economic activity are caused by
fluctuations in the rate of investment. And fluctuations in the rate of
investment are caused mainly by fluctuations in the marginal efficiency
of capital. The rate of interest, which is the other determinant of
investment, is more or less stable and does not play a significant role
in cyclical fluctuations in investment.

Fluctuations in MEC or the expected rate of profit on new investment are
due to:

changes in the prospective yields, and
changes in the cost or supply price of the capital goods.

Towards the end of the boom, the decline in the prospective yields on
capital is due, in first instance, to the growing abundance of capital
goods which lowers the MEC. The turning point from expansion to
contraction is, thus, explained by the collapse of MEC. As investment
falls, because of the decline in MEC, income also falls. The multiplier
works in reverse direction.

Just as the collapse of MEC is the main cause of the upper turning point
in the trade cycle, similarly the lower turning point, i.e., change from
recession to recovery, is due to the revival of MEC. The interval,
between the upper turning point and the start of recovery, is conditioned
by two factors:

the time necessary for wearing out of durable capital assets, and
the time required to absorb the excess stocks of goods left over from the
boom.
Theory of Interaction Between Multiplier and Accelerator: The Keynes
theory has ignored the acceleration effect on trade cycle. According to
this theory, trade cycle is result of the interaction between multiplier
and accelerator. An autonomous increase in the level of fixed investment
raises income by a marginal amount according to the value of the
multiplier. This increase in total income will induce further increase
in investment through acceleration effect. When this happens, the chain
of causation is linked round in a ‘loop’; investment affects income,
which in turn affects investment. Take a look of the following table:

(All figures in billion Rs.)
Period Autonomous
Investment
(Deviation
from
Base Period) Induced
Consumption
C = Y ×
mpc
                    ”C    I n d u c e d
 I n v e s t m e n t
 I    =    ”C    ×     A c c e l e r a t o r       T o t a l
 D e v i a t i o n        o f
 I n c o m e      f r o m
 B a s e      P e r i o d
 Y    =    C    +
 I       ( 1 )    ( 2 )      ( 3 )    ( 4 )     ( 5 )   ( 6 )      R s .   R s .
   R s .     R s .     R s .      0    0   0     0    0  0      1 1 0   0   0    0
    1 0       2   1 0     6 . 7     6 . 7    1 3 . 4    3 0 . 1    3   1 0    2 0
. 0     1 3 . 3     2 6 . 6     5 6 . 6       4    1 0   3 7 . 8  1 7 . 8   3 5 .
 6    8 3 . 4        5    1 0    5 5 . 6 17.8 35.6 101.2 6 10 67.5 11.9 23.8 1
01.3 7 10 67.6 0.1 0.2 77.8 8 10 51.8 -5.0 -10.0 51.8 9 10 34.6 -5.0 -
10.0 34.6 10 10 23.0 -5.0 -10.0 23.0 11 10 15.4 -5.0 -
10.0 15.4 12 10 10.2 -5.0 -10.0 10.2 13 10 6.8 -3.4 -
6.8 10.0 14 10 6.6 0.1 0.2 16.8
In the above table, the mpc is assumed to be 2/3, accelerator to be 2 and
there is one-period lag. One-period lag means that an increase in income
in one period induces an increase in consumption in the succeeding
period. In the above table, an autonomous investment of Rs.10 billion is
added up each period. In the first period, an autonomous increase in
investment of Rs.10 billion gives rise to an increase in income of only
Rs. 10 billion. It does not induce increase in consumption in period 1,
as we have assumed a lag of one period.
Now with mpc of 2/3, the increase in income of Rs. 10 billion in period 1
induces an increase in consumption of Rs. 6.7 billion (10 × 2/3) in
period 2. With the value of accelerator as 2, there will be induced
investment of Rs. 13.4 billion (6.7 × 2) in the period 2. Now the total
increase in income in period 2 over the base period will be equal to the
autonomous investment of Rs. 10 billion which is maintained in the second
period plus induced consumption of Rs. 6.7 billion plus induced
investment of Rs. 13.4 billion (total increase in income in period 2 =
Rs. 30.1 billion). Now in the third period, the consumption would be
30.1 × 2/3 = Rs. 20 billion. The formula for income for this purpose is
follows:

Income = Auton o m o u s   I n v e s t m e n t   +   I n d u c e d
 I n v e s t m e n t   +   I n d u c e d   C o n s u m p t i o n

 T h e   i n c r e a s e   i n   c o n s u m p t i o n    ( ”C )   i n
 p e r i o d   3   i s   R s .   1 3 . 3    b i l l i o n   ( i . e . ,
 R s .   2 0   b i l l i o n        R s .   6 . 7   b i l l i o n ) .
 T h i s   i n c r e a s e   i n    c o n s u m p t i o n   o f   R s .
 1 3 . 3   b i l l i o n   w i l l    i n d u c e   i n v e s t m e n t
 o f   t h e   v a l u e   o f Rs. 26.6 billion in period 3. Thus, the
total increase in the income in period 3 over the base period is equal to
Rs. 56.6 billion. Under the combined effect of multiplier and
accelerator, the income increases up to the 6th period, but, beyond the
6th period, it begins to decrease. 1st to 6th is the stage of expansion
or upswing. The 6th one is a turning point and from 6th onward is the
phase of contraction or down swing.

In the above table, it has been assumed that there is no limitation of
productive resources. In other words, there is no full employment
ceiling. The above table conveys the idea about interaction between the
multiplier and accelerator and its impact on national income.

As there is a limit to the increase in NI set by the full employment
ceilings, Professor Hicks explains the different phases of trade cycle
with the help of following diagram:




In the above diagram, AA is the line representing autonomous investment.
The multiplier and autonomous investment together determine the
equilibrium level of income shown by the line LL. This line is also
known as ‘floor line’. The national income grows from one year to the
next along with this floor line. The line EE shows the equilibrium time
path of national income determined by autonomous investment and the
combined effect of multiplier and accelerator. FF is the full employment
ceiling. It is the line that shows the maximum national output at any
period of time.

Starting from point E, the economy will be in equilibrium moving along
the path EE determined by the combined effect of multiplier and
accelerator and the growing level of autonomous investment. When the
economy reaches P0 along the path EE, suppose there is an external shock.
There is an outburst of investment due to certain innovations or jump in
government investment. When the economy experiences such an outburst of
autonomous investment, it pushes the economy above the equilibrium path
EE after point P0. The rise in autonomous investment due to external
shock causes NI to increase at a greater rate than shown by the slope of
EE. This increase in NI will cause further increase in induced
investment through acceleration effect. The increase in induced
investment causes NI to increase by a magnified amount through
multiplier.

Thus, under the combined effect of multiplier and accelerator, NI or
output will rapidly expand along the path from P0 to P1. But this
expansion must stop at P1, because this is the full employment ceiling.
The limited human and material resources of the economy do not permit a
greater expansion of NI. Therefore, when point P1 is reached, the rapid
growth of NI must come to an end. It is assumed that the full employment
ceiling grows at the same rate as autonomous investment. Therefore, FF
slopes gently unlike the greater slope of the line from P0 to P1. When
point P1 is reached, the economy must grow at the same rate as the usual
growth in the autonomous investment.

For a short time, the economy may crawl along the full employment ceiling
FF. But because NI has ceased to increase at the rapid rate, the induced
investment via accelerator falls off to the level consistent with the
modest rate of growth. But the economy cannot crawl along its full
employment ceiling for a long time. The decline in induced investment,
when NI, and hence consumption, ceases to increase rapidly, initiates a
contraction in the level of income and business activity. Thus, there is
a slackening off at P2 and the level of NI moves towards EE. Investment
falls off rapidly and multiplier works in the reverse direction.

The fall in NI and output resulting from the sharp fall in induced
investment will not stop on touching the level EE but will go further
down. The economy must consequently move all the way down from point P2
to point Q1. But at point Q1, the floor has been reached. NI will not
fall further, because this is the equilibrium level given by the working
of ordinary multiplier and autonomous investment free from simultaneous
operation of the accelerator. The economy may crawl along the floor
through the path Q1 to Q2. In doing so, there is a growth in the level
of NI. This rate of growth as before induces investment and both the
multiplier and accelerator come into operation, and the economy will move
towards Q3 and the full employment ceiling FF. This is how interaction
between multiplier and accelerator causes economic fluctuations as
explained by Professor Hicks.
Kaldor’s Contribution to Modern Trade Cycle Theory: Kaldor has also used
a modified and more realistic form of accelerator and investment function
in trade cycle theory. According to the conventional concept of
accelerator, the investment or demand for capital depends upon the rate
of change of the level of economic activity (i.e., the level of income
and employment). Whereas, according to Kaldor’s point of view, the
demand for investment or capital goods depends upon the level of activity
rather than the rate of change of that level. It should be remembered
that in Kaldor’s analysis the level of activity means the level of
national output, income and employment. In Kaldor's model of trade
cycle, the capital accumulation by raising the productive capacity
affects the investment decisions of the entrepreneurs. The effect of the
capital accumulation on the investment decision of the entrepreneurs
makes the investment function non-linear in the real world (that is,
investment-incomes or investment-employment curve is not a straight
line). Through this non-linear investment function, Kaldor has explained
the conditions of stability and instability of an economy, which are
described as below:

In his theory, Kaldor has used ex-ante concepts of saving and investment,
i.e., ex-ante saving and ex-ante investment. Ex-ante investment means
planned net addition to the stock of fixed capital and inventories of
goods. This ex-ante investment differs from the realised, actual or ex-
post investment by the amount of unintended accumulations or dis-
accumulations of inventories of goods which arise due to difference
between the planned and realised sales goods. Ex-ante saving means the
savings planned by the people for a period if they had accurately
forecast their incomes. Therefore, unexpected changes in the level of
income will make the realised or ex-post saving different from the
planned or ex-ante saving.

When ex-ante investment exceeds the ex-ante saving, the level of activity
or income and employment will rise and vice versa. The equilibrium level
of activity (income and employment) is determined at which ex-ante
investment is equal to ex-ante saving.

Linear Saving and Investment Functions: Let us now see how Kaldor
explains the stability and instability of the level of economic activity
and the course of trade cycle. Kaldor takes first the cases of linear
(straight line) saving and investment functions.
In the above diagram, linear investment and saving function is shown.
The investment curve II is steepier than saving curve SS. The two
functions intersect each other at the equilibrium point C, at which the
income is determined to be Y0. But this equilibrium between ex-ante
saving and ex-ante investment is unstable, because, if once this
equilibrium is disturbed, the economy will move either towards hyper-
inflation or towards collapse.

Now consider the following diagram for a stable condition:




In the above diagram, the investment curve II is less steeply inclined
than the saving curve SS. In this case any disturbance, which sends the
economy on either side of the equilibrium level, will not reinforce
itself and the economy will tend to come back to its equilibrium level
Y0. But such a stability is also not realistic because economic system
in the real world shows great instability. Both the cases of linear ex-
ante saving and ex-ante investment functions are quite unrealistic and
therefore Kaldor has ruled them out. According to him, in the real
world, both the saving and investment functions are non-linear, that is,
they are not straight lines. The trade cycles or the fluctuations in the
economy are explained by non-linear saving and investment functions.

Non-Linear Saving and Investment Functions: The following figure
describes the non-linear saving and investment functions:
In the above diagram, the shapes of the investment curve II and the
saving curve SS are not straight. They are cyclical and fluctuating.
Both the functions intersect each other at three different points, i.e.,
A, B and C. Equilibrium at point B is quiet unstable. Above point B,
investment exceeds saving and, therefore, once as a result of some
disturbing investment exceeds saving, the income (i.e., the level of
activity) will go on moving upward till point C is reached, and below
point B saving exceeds investment and any disturbance which moves the
system below point B, the level of activity or income will go on moving
downward till point A is reached. Above point C, saving exceeds
investment and, therefore, if the system does above point C, it will come
back to it. Therefore, the system is stable upward. On the other hand,
below point C, investment exceeds saving and, therefore, any disturbance
which sends the system below point C, it will be corrected by the return
to the point C. Thus, the level of activity or income at point C is also
stable downward. It, therefore, follows that the level of activity or
income is in stable equilibrium at point C.

Point A also represents a stable equilibrium. Above point A, saving
exceeds investment and below point A, investment exceeds saving, which
means that the level of activity will tend to return to point A if any
disturbance, causing movement either upward or downward, occurs. It,
therefore, follows that both the extreme points C representing boom
period and A representing depression, are stable equilibrium points.
This means that economy should tend to be in stable equilibrium at either
a very high or a very low level of activity. This is, however, a quiet
unlikely and improbable result since in the real world the economy is not
found to be stable at these extreme levels of activity. This trade cycle
is also known as ‘self-generating trade cycle’.

Kaldor has explained this ‘self-generating trade cycle’ through the
shifts or changes in the investment function and saving function.
According to Kaldor, when the level of investment is very high,
production of consumer goods increases and as a result both consumption
and saving increase. This means that saving function SS will shift
upward when the high level of activity is reached. Besides, with a high
level of investment the opportunities for further investment may become
temporarily restricted and as a result of this investment function curve
II tends to shift downward. Thus, when the economy is at a high level of
activity, i.e., at point C, the saving function curve SS tends to move
upward and the investment function curve II tends to move downward and
consequently the point C tends to move down and point B tends to move up
as in the following figure (a), until they meet each other at the
combined point BC as in figure (b). at the combined point BC, the
economy is in unstable downward position. The contraction in the level
of activity will continue further until point A is reached.
The economy will not go below point A, because, saving and investment are
in stable equilibrium at this point. But according to Kaldor, reversal
movement of the cycle will start because the investment function curve
will shift downward. Given the level of activity at A, investment in
machines or equipment may not be sufficient to cover the depreciation.
This creates opportunities for more investment, which causes the
investment function curve to move upward. With the level of activity A,
as the investment function curve II moves upward relative to the saving
function curve SS, the point B will separate from point C and tend to
move towards A as in the following figure 7 (a). The investment function
curve II will go on shifting upward till combined point AB is reached in
figure 7(b).




But the combined point AB is unstable upward, for above combined point
AB, investment exceeds saving. As a result, the expansion in the level
of activity will not stop at point AB but will continue until once again
point C is reached. Now, with the point C representing again the
situation of boom having been reached, the investment opportunities once
again will become restricted and as a result the movement of contraction
in the level of activity will start once again and the whole process of
contraction and then expansion will be repeated again. This is how
Kaldor shows that the occurrence of trade cycles in a free market economy
is self-generating.
Policy for Trade Cycle:
Monetary Policy: A country must always formulate and follow an
appropriate monetary policy so as to avoid the occurrence of booms and
slumps. Monetary policy embraces banking and credit policy relating to
loans and interest rates as well as the monetary standard and public debt
and its management. It influences the volume of credit base and, through
it the volume of bank credit and thus the general level of prices and of
economic activity. When boom conditions are developing, bank rate is
raised and thus credit is contracted with the consequent brake upon the
undue expansion of business activity. In a depression, a policy of cheap
money may be adopted to stimulate business investment and thus assist
recovery.

The bank credit policy involves two types of controls, i.e., the
qualitative and the quantitative. The quantitative control is aimed at
general tightening or easing of the credit system as the situation may
demand. It is exercised by influencing the reserves of the banks. The
qualitative or selective control seeks to regulate particular type of
credit. Its object is to stimulate, restrict or stabilise bank advances
for specific business schemes.

But there are limitations of monetary policy relating to bank rate and
open market operations. Its success will depend on how far certain
assumptions are true. For example, how far the various member of the
banking system are prepared to accept the lead given by the central bank;
how far the banks can make their borrowers use their credits for purposes
for which such credits have actually been created; further, how far
monetary causes are responsible for the economic fluctuations; and still
further, and most important, whether the business community will adjust
their investment exactly in accordance with the altered rates of
interest.

Fiscal Policy: Since public expenditure in all modern states constitutes
a fairly respectable proportion of the total national income, fiscal
policy is bound to affect the level of prices, production and employment,
irrespective of the fact whether this policy is deliberately aimed at
this or not. Fiscal policy consists of two elements, i.e., public
spending or the policy of public works, and appropriate taxation.

In a year of depression, that is, when private investment is at a low
ebb, the deficiency in investment will have to be made up by large
capital outlay by the state, and conversely, during the upward swing of
the cycle, the state will have considerably to cut down its spending
programme. Thus, during the depression years, the state must be ready to
spend beyond its current revenues. In other words, the state should be
prepared to have deficit budgets during depression. Conversely, there
should be surplus budgets during the years of prosperity. To put it
another way, instead of having balanced budgets every year, the state
should aim at budget-balancing over a series of years.

On the revenue side, rates and taxes should be lowered during depression,
while they should be raised during boom years. To stimulate business
investment during depression, not only the rates of taxes should be
lowered but also more liberal allowances for depreciation and
obsolescence, etc., should be granted.

Thus, fiscal policy, which is also known as the contra-cyclical
management of public finance, may be operated both through public
revenues and public expenditure.

International Measures: So far we have discussed individual national
efforts at economic stabilisation. But trade cycle is an international
phenomenon and no country is hermetically scaled from the rest of the
world. In fact, this international aspect creates complications and
makes crisis control all the more difficult.

The measures which are suggested to be adopted on an international scale
are: International Production Control, International Buffer Stocks and
International Investment Control. International Production Control
envisages control of production and prices of the importance primary
products. The difficulties of such control are indeed formidable,
notably because agriculture in countries like India and Pakistan is
usually carried on a small scale and more as a mode of living than
business, so that even though it ceases to be profitable, it will be
continued. But production control, as far as possible, combined with
buffer stocks to counteract sudden changes in supply and demand, will go
a long way in preventing rise or fall in their prices, which give rise
further to serious fluctuations in the entire economy.

An international investment control for developing backward regions would
help in raising the standards of living of their people and thus reduce
the inequalities in the standard of living of different peoples. Such
reduction in those inequalities is bound to strengthen the forces of
stabilisation.

Depression

Recovery

Boom

Recession

Figure 1 – Phases of Trade Cycle

Figure 2 – Phases of Trade Cycle and MEC

Recession

Collapse of MEC (Boom)

Recovery

Revival of MEC (Depression)

O            Time             X
Figure 3 – Phases of Trade Cycle

F


E


L

A

Y



F

E


L

A

Investment and National Income / Output

P1

P2

Q2

Q1

P0

Q3

I

I

S

S

 O          Y0                       X
Income


Y

Saving and Investment
C

Figure 4 (a) – Linear investment and saving functions
Unstable equilibrium


Figure 4 (b) – Linear investment and saving functions
Stable equilibrium


C

Saving and Investment

Y

 O    Y0                       X
Income


S

S

I

I

Figure 5 – Non-linear investment and saving functions


C

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Y

 O                             X
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S

I

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B

A
A

B

Figure 6 (a) – Investment and saving functions

C

Saving and Investment

Y

 O                            X
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S

S

I

I

A

AB

Figure 6 (b) – Investment and saving functions


BC

Saving and Investment

Y

 O                            X
Income / Level of Activity


S

S

I

I

Figure 7 (b) – Investment and saving functions


C
Saving and Investment

Y

 O                            X
Income / Level of Activity


S

S

I

I

A

B

C

Saving and Investment

Y

 O                            X
Income / Level of Activity


S

S

I

I

Figure 7 (a) – Investment and saving functions
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Description: bank reconcilation statement,circular flow of income, closing enteries, coefficient of correlation, concepts of National income, Consumption Functions, Determination of National income,Financial statement, Flow of Funds accounts, Index numbers, Introduction to statistics,investment, macro economics, measures of central tendency, measure of depersion, measure of shape distribution, merchandise inventory, micro macro economics, Micro Economics, multiplier and accelerator, probability, public finance, random variable,regression,sample distribution theory, statistics dynamics and comparative, theofy of employment, trade cycle