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					Energy Cooperation in Asia and
the Pacific: Prospects for Fossil
   Fuel and Electricity Trade
 On behalf of
 Valery I. Salygin
    PhD, Professor

    International Institute
    of Energy Policy and Diplomacy of MGIMO University
    MFA of the Russian Federation (MIEP), Director

    Member of the Russian Academy of Science

    of the International Energy Development Academy
    Vice-president


                                        Presented by

                              Vladimir M. Krasnogorskiy
                     MIEP, Head of International and Regional Programmes Department



Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
   Energy Security Definition

        “the ability of an economy to guarantee the availability
        of energy resource supply in a sustainable manner, with
        the energy price being at a level that will not adversely
        affect the economic performance of the economy”
        (APERC 2007)




Energy security in Asia and the
Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities
   Energy Security Factors

                        Economic
                          Social
                       Geopolitical
                      Environmental
                 Nature-induced threats
               Terrorism and other threats




Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
   Energy Security Economic Challenges

   Figure 1. Energy security on the supply-demand equilibrium graph

                      P                                S

          P fair MAX
                                                                       Stable equilibrium
                                                                       in the green zone =
                                                                       energy security
          P fair MIN

                                                        D

                                                             Q

   Source: MIEP MGIMO Centre for Strategic Energy Research and Geopolitics


Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
   Energy Security Economic Challenges


                        scale
                                            of basic human and
         DEMAND         structure
                                            economic activities
                        energy intensity




                        physical availability of the resources
         SUPPLY
                       scope of production and distribution activities




Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
   Energy Security Economic Challenges
   Table 1. Energy Security economic challenges and opportunities

                      Term          Challenge                      Opportunity

                                                                   Build oil stockpiles and
                      Short         Prevent energy shocks          manage cross-border
                                                                   inventories

                                    Meet growing demand
    SUPPLY                          under conditions of            Increase energy trade
                      Middle
                                    uneven distribution of         and investment
                                    resources

                                    Meet demand under
                                                             Move to higher
                                    conditions of finiteness
                      Long                                   renewable energy
                                    of burning hydrocarbons
                                                             share in the mix
                                    reserves
   Source: MIEP MGIMO Centre for Strategic Energy Research and Geopolitics


Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
   Energy Security Economic Challenges

   Figure 2. Asia and the Pacific energy mix

                                                                 0.7%
                 0.3%
                        3.1%
                               0.1%                    1.0% 4.8%
                                                                                Oil
       1980                                   2010
                                                                                Gas
                                                                        27.9%
                                                                                Coal
              33.3%                   45.4%
                                                                                Nuclear energy
                                                     46.1%

                                                                        19.6%   Hydroelectricity

                      17.9%
                                                                                Other
                                                                                renewables



   Source: Determined from EIA online statistical data




Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
   Energy Trade
   Figure 3. Energy trade dynamics in Asia and the Pacific
                            3000                                                                                120%
                                                                                                                                              Electricity trade, mtoe

                            2500                                                                                100%                          Coal trade, mtoe




                                                                                                                       Volume gain, 2001=0%
      Trade volumes, mtoe




                            2000                                                                                80%                           Gas trade, mtoe

                                                                                                                                              Oil trade, mt
                            1500                                                                                60%

                                                                                                                                              Oil trade gowth, %
                            1000                                                                                40%
                                                                                                                                              Gas trade growth, %
                             500                                                                                20%
                                                                                                                                              Coal trade, growth, %

                              0                                                                                 0%                            Electricity trade, growth, %
                                   1999


                                          2000


                                                 2001


                                                        2002


                                                               2003


                                                                      2004


                                                                             2005


                                                                                    2006


                                                                                           2007


                                                                                                  2008


                                                                                                         2009
   Source: Determined from EIA online statistical data and BP Statistical Review of
   World Energy


Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
 Prospects for Energy Trade in Northern and Eastern Asia
Picture 1. Existing and proposed pipelines from Russia to Eastern Asia




Source: background map – cia.gov, pipeline scheme – MIEP MGIMO


 Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
 Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
Energy Trade in Central Asia
   Picture 3. Central Asian oil and gas pipelines




   Source: Stratfor.com



Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
Energy Trade in Central Asia
   Picture 4. Existing and proposed power interconnection in Central Asia




   Source: CAREC Institute



Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
Energy Trade in Southern Asia
   Picture 5. Potential routes of energy trade in Southern Asia




   Source: ESMAP 2008: Potential and prospects for regional energy trade



Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
Energy Trade in Southeastern Asia
   Picture 6.The proposed Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline grid

                                                1.    Malaysia to Singapore (commissioned 1991).
                                                2.    Myanmar (Yadana) to Thailand (Ratchaburi) (commissioned
                                                      1999).
                                                3.    Myanmar (Yetagun) to Thailand (Ratchaburi) (commissioned
                                                      2000).
                                                4.    Indonesia (West Natuna) to Singapore (commissioned 2001).
                                                5.    Indonesia (West Natuna) to Malaysia (Duyong) (commissioned
                                                      2002).
                                                6.    Indonesia (Grissik) to Singapore (commissioned 2003).
                                                7.    Trans Thailand-Malaysia Pipeline (commissioned 2005).
                                                8.    Indonesia (South Sumatra) to Malaysia
                                                9.    Indonesia (Arun) to Malaysia
                                                10.   Indonesia (East Natuna and West Natuna) to Malaysia
                                                      (Kerteh) and Singapore
                                                11.   Indonesia (East Natuna) to Thailand (JDA-Erawan)
                                                12.   Indonesia (East Natuna) to Malaysia (Sabah) and the
                                                      Philippines (Palawan-Luzon)
                                                13.   Malaysia-Thailand (JDA) to Vietnam


   Source: Roberts, Cull / Building the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline



Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
Energy Trade in Southeastern Asia

   Picture 7. Proposed ASEAN Power grid




   Source: ASEAN Centre for Energy



Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
Energy Trade Cooperation Benefits




          direct and indirect economic advantages for the
          participating countries as well as results in social
          development in the region given the emerging
          workplaces, concurrent social and educational
          programs implementation and income growth




Energy Cooperation in Asia and the Pacific:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel and Electricity Trade
    Thank you for your attention!




Russia’s View on
Global Energy Security              17

				
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