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PIG_Point_4.1._Market_Situation

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PIG_Point_4.1._Market_Situation Powered By Docstoc
					The European pigmeat sector
  "Single CMO" Management Committee
             18 June 2009
                       175         Development of the
                                   Community average
Price in Euro/100 kg



                       165
                                    market price for
                       155            pig carcases

                       145

                       135

                       125

                       115
                               1    4     7   10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
                       2006               2007       2008       2009             5 yr Avg (03-07)
                             DG AGRI C4                             25 October 2012          2
                                                Percentual change in Pig prices May 2009
                          20.0%                                                                                -1 year
Difference in €uro in %




                                                                                                               - 1 month
                          15.0%

                          10.0%

                           5.0%

                           0.0%

                           -5.0%

                          -10.0%

                          -15.0%
                                    BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK     EU
                                   DG AGRI C4                                             25 October 2012                3
                                   Development of the Community average
                                          market price for piglets
              45
€uro/ piece




              40


              35


              30


              25
                   1    4    7   10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

                   2006          2007      2008     2009           5 yr avg (03 - 07)
                    DG AGRI C4                          25 October 2012         4
        800
                         TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices
        700
                                                         2008 - 2009
        600


        500
US$/T




        400

        300


        200                                                                                       week 23 of 2009
                                                                                                 -52% compared to
                                                                                                   week 1 of 2008
        100


          0
              1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50
                           FREIGHT Panamax       soja beans USA         soja pellets ARG         Citrus p.
                           Palm pitkernels       EU maïs in US$         C.G.F.
                     DG AGRI C4                                                25 October 2012                      5
               445

                                               US Soja in US$ and EU€
               420
               395
               370
               345                US Soya in EU€
               320
                                  US Soya in US$
Value / Tonn




               295
               270
               245
               220
               195
               170
               145
               120
                95
                70
                     |   01   |      02   |   03   |   04   |   05   |   06      |    07        |   08   |   09   |
               300

               275

               250                             US Corn in US$ and EU€
               225
                                  US Corn in EU€
Value / Tonn




               200
                                  US Corn in US$
               175

               150

               125

               100

               75

               50
                     |   01   |      02   |   03   |   04   |   05   |   06      |    07        |   08   |   09   |

                         DG AGRI C4                                           25 October 2012                6
                               Blé tendre (EU)
                               Orge (EU)              Prix Matières Premières
                               Maïs (EU)
                               Soja (CAF)                   2007 - 2009
                               Sons (EU)
               300.00          P. d'I orge
                               155% P.d'I. maïs
                               Manioc (CAF)
               250.00          C.G.F. (CAF)
Euro / tonne




               200.00


               150.00


               100.00


                50.00
                    Jan 07    April           Juil   Oct   Jan 08   April   Juil         Oct     janv-09   April

                        DG AGRI C4                                                 25 October 2012                 7
                              Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and
                                    weekly pig carcass prices 2007 - 2009                           175.00
                      2 100
                                                                                                    165.00

                      1 900
Slaughter in 1000 T




                                                                                                    155.00




                                                                                                             Euro/ 100kg
                                                                                                    145.00
                      1 700

                                                                                                    135.00
                      1 500
                                                                                                    125.00
                                                                           NB: Monthly
                      1 300                                                Slaughter 2009 is an
                                                                                                    115.00
                                                                           estimate.
                      1 100                                                                         105.00
Source:                                2007              2008                         2009
EU Commission DG AGRI                         (expected) Slaughter EU 27             EU-25        Price
                               DG AGRI C4                                  25 October 2012            8
                            Prices for slaughtered pigs minus
                                 Compound Feed costs
              200.00




                                                                                                        Slaughterings in Mio Tonns
                                                                                               20.000

              150.00
Euro/ 100kg




                                                                                               15.000

              100.00
                                                                                               10.000


               50.00                                                                           5.000


                0.00                                                                           0.000
                       95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8   ja fe mr ap m jn jl au se oc no de
                 Margin                      Feed cost                    Pigprices
                 Avg Margin                  Slaught. Eu 15               Slaught EU 27

                       DG AGRI C4                                       25 October 2012                                    9
             Weekly average Pigprices 2006 - 2009
             EU, Brazil and the US in Euro/ 100kg carcase
160.00

140.00

120.00

100.00

 80.00

 60.00
         |           2006            |           2007             |    2008          |    2009           |

  EU = w eighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat               weeks
  US = w eekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iow a-Minn. 167-187lb                           EU
  BR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)                         US
                                                                                             Braz. avg
               DG AGRI C4                                               25 October 2012           10
              195
                                 Pigprices in US and EU and forecasts
                                          EU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat
                                                        US Forecast: Feedstuffs


              170
€uro/ 100kg




              145




              120




               95
                                     EU
                                     US

               70
                    |      05        |     06       |       07       |      08           |          09   |
                        DG AGRI C4                                                25 October 2012            11
                                                                                      1.7

    Weekly exchange rate US dollar
                           2005 - 2009                                                1.6



                                                                                      1.5



                                                                                      1.4



                                                                                      1.3



                                         1 €uro = .......US$                          1.2



                                                                                      1.1



                                                                                      1
|   05           |    06      |          07       |        08         |     09    |

         DG AGRI C4                                       25 October 2012        12
                 Index of exchange rates US$ and BRL compared
                                                    to the €uro
210.0                                                      January 2001 = 100



170.0



130.0



 90.0
        I 2001 I 2002 I 2003 I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 |
                              Real                    US$
         DG AGRI C4                            25 October 2012         13
          Index of exchange ratesof the
          main trading partners compared to the €uro
          January 2001 = 100

170.0



150.0



130.0



110.0



 90.0
        I 2001   I 2002   I 2003   I 2004   I 2005   I 2006   I 2007    I 2008   I 2009   |
                              US$              Jap Yen              Ruble
         DG AGRI C4                                       25 October 2012            14
             Trade in Pigmeat
DG AGRI C4                  25 October 2012   15
                      EU imports of selected PIG products
                   Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

        Origins            2005              2006              2007               2008           Jan-Apr 09
                       tonnes     %      tonnes     %      tonnes     %      tonnes      %      tonnes    %
Chile                    4 994 23.0%       7 568 23.4%     12 347 28.6%       17 132 28.7%        6 925 38.9%
Sw itzerland             4 933 22.7%       8 934 27.6%     10 476 24.2%       12 368 20.7%        5 457 30.6%
USA                      3 532 16.3%       5 380 16.6%       9 065 21.0%      21 547 36.1%        1 372   7.7%
Croatia                  2 189 10.1%       3 930 12.1%       2 863    6.6%     3 964     6.6%      825    4.6%
Russia                    280     1.3%      313     1.0%      280     0.6%       583     1.0%      890    5.0%
Serbia                    716     3.3%      523     1.6%     1 217    2.8%     1 181     2.0%      145    0.8%
Canada                     79     0.4%      252     0.8%     2 660    6.2%         53    0.1%       18    0.1%
EXTRA EU15-25-27        21 730           32 368            43 217             59 724            17 812
% change                                  + 49%             + 34%              + 38%             - 2.3%

                  DG AGRI C4                                                 25 October 2012               16
                       EU imports of selected PIG products
                 Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

               IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27                                                 IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)
                   (Tonnes prod. weight)
                                                                                                           33 010                          35 000
                       18 229                        20 000                                                                30 183
                                     17 812
                                                                                                            5 616                          30 000
                       1 386                         18 000
                                                                                            24 916




                                                              Tonnes (product weight)
                                                     16 000                                                                 7 913
    13 851                                                                                                                                 25 000
                                                     14 000                                  6 507




                                                                                                                                                     1,000 EUR
                       3 767                                                                                                               20 000
    3 456                                            12 000
                                      5 457                                                                11 132
                                                     10 000
                                                                                                                                           15 000
    3 571
                       4 839                         8 000
                                                                                             9 744                         15 050
                                                     6 000                                                                                 10 000
                                      6 925
    3 500                                            4 000                                                 13 084
                       5 960                                                                                                               5 000
                                                     2 000                                   6 582
    2 358                             1 372                                                                                 3 342
                                                     0                                                                                     0
  Jan-Apr 07         Jan-Apr 08     Jan-Apr 09                                             Jan-Apr 07     Jan-Apr 08      Jan-Apr 09
USA                    Chile                  Switzerland                               USA                 Chile                   Switzerland
Croatia                Serbia                 Other destinations                        Croatia             Serbia                  Other destinations


            DG AGRI C4                                                                                  25 October 2012                             17
                     Imports of selected PIG products


                                                                        6 000




                                                                                in Tonnes (product weight)
                                                                        4 500



                                                                        3 000



                                                                        1 500



                                                                        0
  |          2006            |      2007      |    2008         |
Jan                        Jan              Jan               Jan
 06                         07               08                09


                   FRESH         FROZEN    FAT    OTHERS
      DG AGRI C4                                      25 October 2012                                18
                       EU exports of selected PIG products:
                   Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)
  Destinations           2005               2006               2007               2008           Jan-Apr 09          Compared
                     tonnes     %      tonnes      %      tonnes      %      tonnes      %      tonnes       %      to Jan-Apr 08
Russia                485 437 25.0%     687 402 32.9%      647 057 33.9%      764 117 30.0%     204 835 27.2%             - 16%
Hong Kong             139 578   7.2%    138 554    6.6%    243 203 12.7%      454 242 17.8%     133 415 17.7%             - 21%
China                  70 788   3.7%     53 785    2.6%     86 291    4.5%    146 138    5.7%       54 585   7.3%            + 9%
Japan                 305 731 15.8%     249 380 11.9%      232 951 12.2%      236 120    9.3%       66 612   8.9%         - 16%
Ukraine                47 814   2.5%      9 789    0.5%      2 757    0.1%    188 006    7.4%       54 617   7.3%       + 164%
South Korea           117 671   6.1%    142 599    6.8%    137 443    7.2%    115 693    4.5%       38 399   5.1%         - 11%
Croatia                59 964   3.1%     56 785    2.7%     56 171    2.9%     63 706    2.5%       19 569   2.6%         + 12%
USA                    72 843   3.8%     67 048    3.2%     66 527    3.5%     61 288    2.4%       18 781   2.5%         - 21%
Angola                 34 356   1.8%     40 757    2.0%     48 637    2.5%     48 922    1.9%       17 341   2.3%         + 16%
Australia              28 126   1.5%     29 579    1.4%     34 583    1.8%     45 604    1.8%       14 531   1.9%            - 6%
Belarus                48 506   2.5%     59 586    2.9%     10 529    0.6%     55 090    2.2%        9 267   1.2%         - 40%
Philippines            20 896   1.1%     23 321    1.1%     34 217    1.8%     40 911    1.6%        8 776   1.2%         - 47%
EXTRA EU15-25-27    1 938 455          2 089 363          1 910 695          2 550 904          752 651
% change                                   + 8%               - 9%              + 34%               - 7.9%


                 DG AGRI C4                                                       25 October 2012                       19
                         EU exports of selected PIG products
                   Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)


                                                                                                EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)
               EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat
                  (Tonnes prod. weight)                                                                                                  1 400 000
                    817 348                        900 000                                               1 246 810     1 217 102
                                  752 651          800 000                                                                               1 200 000




                                                             Tonnes (product weight)
                                                   700 000                                 979 908
                    254 779                                                                               476 304
   570 119                                                                                                              486 330          1 000 000
                                   238 586
                                                   600 000




                                                                                                                                                        1,000 EUR
                                                   500 000
                                                                                                                                         800 000
                                    54 617                                                 488 400                       60 567
   244 568           79 485         54 585                                                                               44 205
                                                   400 000                                                247 456                        600 000
                                    66 612
                    168 136                                                                                             231 531
                                                   300 000
    74 353                         133 415                                                                142 003                        400 000
                                                                                           239 151                       128 234
   63 505                                          200 000
                    243 937                                                                 41 155                                       200 000
   165 465                         204 835         100 000                                                320 853       266 235
                                                                                           197 013
                                                   0                                                                                     0
  Jan-Apr 07       Jan-Apr 08     Jan-Apr 09                                              Jan-Apr 07     Jan-Apr 08    Jan-Apr 09
Russia                Hong Kong              Japan                                     Russia              Hong Kong               Japan
China                 Ukraine                Other destinations                        China               Ukraine                 Other destinations




             DG AGRI C4                                                                                25 October 2012                               20
           Exports of selected PIG products
                                                                                 250 000




                                                                                            in Tonnes (product weight)
                                                                                 200 000



                                                                                 150 000



                                                                                 100 000



                                                                                 50 000



                                                                                 0
  |       2006        |     2007           |        2008            |
Jan                 Jan                  Jan                      Jan
 06                  07                   08                       09

      FRESH        FROZEN          FAT         LIVE ANIMALS             OTHERS

      DG AGRI C4                                           25 October 2012                 21
                                46 135




                     1995
                                                                  881 011
                                59 720




                     1996
                                                                      943 405




DG AGRI C4
                                 71 937




                     1997
                                                                               1 083 230
                                51 641




                     1998
                                                                                       1 238 138
                                                                                                                                                                             IMPORTS




                                63 800




                     1999
                                                                                                         1 556 961
                                55 918




                     2000
                                                                                                         1 545 907
                                56 077




                     2001
                                                                                            1 331 808
                                                                                                                                                                             EXPORTS




                                54 499




                     2002
                                                                                                         1 526 563
                                 72 276




                     2003
                                                                                                         1 509 302
                                22 612




                     2004
                                                                                                                        1 780 568
                                21 730


                     2005
                                                                                                                            1 938 455
                                32 368
                                                                                                                                                                                                   EU trade of PIG products




                     2006
                                                                                                                                      2 089 363
                                43 217
                     2007



                                                                                                                          1 910 695
                                59 724
                     2008




                                                                                                                                                               2 550 904
25 October 2012




                                17 812
                   Jan-




                                                                752 651
                  Apr 09
                            0
                                  250 000
                                            500 000
                                                      750 000
                                                                   1 000 000
                                                                                1 250 000
                                                                                             1 500 000
                                                                                                            1 750 000
                                                                                                                          2 000 000
                                                                                                                                       2 250 000
                                                                                                                                                   2 500 000
                                                                                                                                                                 2 750 000
                                                                                                                                                                                       3 000 000




                                                      Tonnes product weight
 22
                                  Cumulated quantity of
       600 000
                                      weekly requests
                                     for Export licenses
       500 000                     in the Pigmeat sector
                                 for Gatt year 2008 - 2009

       400 000
Tonn




       300 000



       200 000



       100 000
                                                                     Cumulative quantity available
                                                                     cumulative attributions
            0
                 1   3   5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

                 DG AGRI C4                                          25 October 2012         23

				
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