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					                                                                                                        Equity Research
                                                                                                            Company Note
                                                                                                            October 24, 2012




 Earnings Preview                                        Deckers Outdoor
 Apparel & Footwear
                                                         DECK: Low expectations into the print; NEUTRAL
 Diana Katz, CFA
 212-632-6601                                            Highlights: Expectations are so low headed into the print. The
 diana.katz@lazardcap.com                                Street is already $56 M/$0.60 below guidance on sales/EPS and
 Coverage
                                                         combined with a 38% short interest, it is unlikely the stock reacts
 Rating                                     NEUTRAL      negatively post the much anticipated guide-down. On a longer-
 Price                                        $37.19     term basis, though, we remain on the sidelines given the over-
 Price target                                    NM      inventoried position of the brand and the less robust demand for
                                                         its product, especially its fashion product. Our wholesale checks
 Key Data                                                are still mixed (with poorest reads at JWN, its largest account, and
 52-week range                               $119-$35
                                                         strongest reads at Dillard's) although we are seeing more demand
 Shares out (M)                                  37.1
 Market cap. (M)                                1,380
                                                         at its owned stores.
 Enterprise value (M)                        $1,263.5
 ADTV (3 mo avg)                            1,974,953    ■ The Street is $0.60 below the midpoint of annual EPS
 Short int (% s/o)                               37%       guidance for '12. On the topline, the Street is also projecting
 Dividend ($ / %)                                  NA      sales to come in $56 M below where the company guided. With
 Book value/sh                                 $19.44      this set-up and a 38% short interest, it seems unlikely the stock
                                                           should react negatively post the much anticipated guide-down.
 Fiscal Year: December
                                                         ■ Pick-up in activity with cooler weather. From a topline
                  2011           2012E           2013E
 EPS ($)         Actual Prior     Curr   Prior   Curr
                                                           perspective, we have noticed a pick-up in activity around UGGs
 Q1               0.49           0.20A           0.25      as the weather got cooler, particularly in their owned stores
 Q2              (0.19)          (0.53)A (0.59) (0.54)     (see page 3 for a detailed analysis of last weekend's 18 checks
 Q3               1.59    1.16    1.10   1.41    1.39      conducted in 9 states). At its NY outlet we went from seeing
 Q4               3.18    3.36    3.31   3.68    3.67      ~25 customers per visit to now seeing ~50 per visit in the store.
 FY EPS           5.07    4.07    3.97   4.75    4.76      NY and CA full price stores also had robust traffic over the
 P/E (x)          7.3              9.4            7.8
                                                           weekend. However, our wholesale checks continue to be mixed.
 Revs ($M)                                                 We witnessed positive reads in most of the Dillard's checks
 Q1               205             246A            270      but negative reads in most of the Nordstrom checks (its largest
 Q2               154             174A    202     186
                                                           wholesale account).
 Q3               414     423     416     459     452
 Q4               604     685     683     747     745    ■ Customer demographic shift. We have been witnessing a
 FY Revs         1,377 1,528 1,520 1,677 1,653             migration in its customer base to an older demographic with
 P/S (x)          1.0              0.9            0.8      most of its female customers now either over the age of 30 or
 FY EBITDA        310     265     259             308      younger than the high school customer. At this time last year
                                                           we had still seen the high school and college age customer in
                                                           the stores. Historically, 20%-25% of its customer base had been
                                                           the high school student ages 13-17 and we are not seeing her
                                                           coming out to buy UGGs to any great degree this year.
                                                         ■ Reducing estimates. Reducing 3Q EPS to $1.10 from $1.16
                                                           (consensus $1.04) and 4Q to $3.31 from $3.36 (consensus
                                                           $3.38). We are reducing estimates in light of the retroactive price
                                                           declines.
                                                         ■ DECK will report 3Q EPS on Thursday after the close with a
                                                           conference call at 4:30pm. The dial-in is 719-325-2469.



SEE PAGES 7-8 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Effective May 10, 2005, Lazard Frères & Co. LLC ("LF&Co.") transferred its capital markets business (which includes equity
research, syndicate, sales and trading) to a new privately-held company, Lazard Capital Markets LLC, which is neither owned
nor controlled by LF&Co. LF&Co., which is part of publicly-traded Lazard Ltd, has retained, among other things, its investment
banking business (including its mergers and acquisitions and financial restructuring practices).
Investment Thesis
We rate DECK shares NEUTRAL due to lackluster demand seen to date,
unattainable forward guidance, and no clear time frame for a return to growth
given the challenging global environment (UK wholesale and China retail).

Valuation
We view shares as fairly valued.

Risks
Risks to the downside include significant order cancellations, a slowdown at its
own stores, or prolonged unseasonable weather in peak selling season. Risks
to the upside include an upsurge in demand during the cold winter months, a
stronger reorder business, and the attainability of HSD global comps.

Company Description
Deckers Outdoor designs and markets footwear developed for a casual lifestyle.
The company has three main product lines: UGG, Teva, and Simple. The UGG
brand is the lion's share of its business. The company is evolving this brand
from being a women's-only fall/winter product to a year-round brand with spring
product, men's product, and handbags/accessories.

          DECK
          Volume (Millions)                                                 Price (USD)
  16.00                                                                                   140

  14.00
                                                                                          120
  12.00
                                                                                          100
  10.00

   8.00                                                                                   80

   6.00
                                                                                          60
   4.00
                                                                                          40
   2.00

   0.00                                                                                   20
          Nov   Dec     Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr     May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep    Oct
                                          Price         Volume            Created by BlueMatrix




                Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                            2
3Q preview. We are modeling sales up 0.4% to $416 M, gross margins down
650bps to 42.5%, and SG&A up 90bps to 28%. Our operating margin shows a
740bps decline to 14.5% for EPS of $1.10. We are modeling 4Q EPS of $3.31,
below the Street at $3.38.

Channel checks:

There still seem to be pockets of demand for UGG boots. Last weekend, when
we saw the greatest pick-up YTD in UGG purchases, we noted the following
across the country:

Positive reads:

Owned store:

- Madison Ave. Flagship. Forty-three customers in store (including 13 in men’s
store). The Classic short boot is the most popular here. The Bailey’s here are
selling including the new bomber and bow styles. Most customers were women
in their 30’s.

- UGG store in LA. Nine customers in the store and one was trying on boots.
While there, two customers bought UGGs (each bought 3 pairs). In general
the customer was in her mid-30’s and up including a family with a toddler. The
classics are doing well (sparkle version the best) followed by the Bailey Bow and
the Cardy Lattice.

- UGG Woodbury outlet: Fifty customers in store. Traffic picked up in last few
weeks.

Wholesale:

- Dillard’s (Louisiana). Fifteen customers looking at UGGs and 13/15 bought
UGGs. Women aged 15-30.

- Dillard’s (Florida). Seven customers looking at UGGs, of which two were trying
on.

- Dillard’s (GA). Two customers interested in UGGs. Per the sales associate
(SA) the UGGs business is doing well with all ages of women purchasing the
brand. The Classic Short in chestnut is the best seller.

- Journeys (Louisiana). Two customers looking at UGGs. The SA commented
that UGGs is one of the top selling brands in the store but will pick up around
mid-November. Classic short is most popular followed by the blue sparkle.

- Lord & Taylor (NJ). Four customers looking at UGGs, two trying on. The SA
said there wasn’t much interest in fashion boots or more expensive boots. The
most popular styles were the Dakotas, Classics, and Mini Bailey. More people
have been coming in for UGGs since the weather turned cooler.




           Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                  3
- Nordstrom (NJ). Seven customers looking at UGGs, with five trying on. Three
UGG boots were bought while in store. UGGs section just as busy as other boot
brands.

- Underground by Journeys (NJ). UGG is in their top two for boots. Four
customers looking at UGGs, three trying on.


Negative reads:

- Nordstrom (Virginia). No one looking at UGGs. SA commented there was no
rush to buy UGGs as they weren't selling many. The price reductions did not
have much impact on sales.

- Belk (Georgia). No one looking at UGGs. The SA commented that even though
UGGs are not selling as much as they used to they still seem to be getting more
styles and colors. The people who buy them are mostly those who have owned
UGGs before and are just looking for a replacement pair. The price drop was
nice but since it wasn’t too dramatic it did not make a significant difference in
sales.

- Nordstrom (Ohio). Thirteen customers looking at UGGs but only one tried it on.
SA commented the women buying UGGs are in their 30’s and 40’s, young kids,
with wooden heel boots being bought by African American women.

- Dillard’s (Ohio). Six women looking at UGGs (mostly mothers and teen
daughters) but no one trying it on. SA said that the customer demographic in this
store believes the UGG boots are over-priced.

- Journeys (Florida). Two looking at UGGs in the department but no one trying
on. The sales associate commented that customers were opting for less pricey
boots.

- Bloomingdale’s (New Jersey). Only 10% of those looking at boots were looking
at UGGs and the shoe department was generally really busy. Five customers
were looking at UGGs and we witnessed purchases of the Bailey Triplet and two
classics.

- Nordstrom (Los Angeles). UGGs was not the most popular boot in the
department with only 2 customers looking at UGGs and none trying on. Sam
Edelman was more popular with eight people in the department trying on the
boots.


Mixed read:

- Journeys (Indiana). Nine customers looking at UGGs, and 2 of those trying
on boots (positive). SA commented there was no rush to buy UGGs as a gift
for the Holidays because they would be able to order more if anything sold out
(negative).




          Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                 4
Decker's Quarterly Income Statement
Fiscal Year-End: December                                           2011                                                        2012E                                                         2013E
(millions except per share)              1Q11          2Q11        3Q11        4Q11        2011            1Q12        2Q12      3Q12E       4Q12E        2012E          1Q13E      2Q13E       3Q13E    4Q13E       2013E

                                       Q1A:2011A   Q2A:2011A Q3A:2011A  Q4A:2011A        2011A      Q1A:2012E Q2E:2012E Q3E:2012E Q4E:2012E               2012E     Q1E:2013E Q2E:2013E Q3E:2013E Q4E:2013E          2013E
Net Revenue                                $204.9       $154.2  $414.4       $603.9     $1,377.3         $246.3    $174.4    $416.0    $683.0           $1,519.8          $269.7    $186.4  $452.2   $744.5        $1,652.8
Cost of goods sold                          102.4         88.3   211.5        296.1       698.3            133.0    100.9     239.2     355.2             828.3            143.5     104.4   246.4     377.5         871.8
Gross profit                                102.5         65.9   202.9        307.8       679.0            113.3      73.6    176.8     327.9             691.5            126.2       82.0  205.7     367.0         781.0
Selling and administrative, incl. B&O        74.3         76.7   112.2        131.0       394.2            101.4    102.3     116.5     143.4             463.6            111.8     111.8   128.0     158.6         510.2
Operating Income (EBIT)                      28.2        -10.8    90.7        176.8       284.8              11.9   -28.7       60.3    184.4             228.0              14.4    -29.8     77.8    208.5         270.8
Net interest expense (income)              -0.110       -0.022     0.1         (0.3)      (0.31)            (0.4)    (0.2)     (0.2)     (0.2)              (0.9)           (0.2)     (0.2)   (0.2)     (0.2)          (0.7)
Other expense, net (income)                -0.028       -0.021     -0.1                   (0.11)              0.0      0.0       0.0       0.0               0.0              0.0       0.0     0.0       0.0           0.0
Pre-tax income                               28.3        -10.8    90.6        177.1       285.3              12.3   -28.5       60.5    184.6             228.9              14.6    -29.6     78.0    208.6         271.6
Income tax (benefit)                           8.5         -3.2   28.3          49.9       83.4               4.3     -8.4      18.8      59.1             73.7               4.7      -9.5    24.9      66.8         86.9
Net income                                   19.8          -7.5 62.345        127.2       201.9               8.0   -20.1       41.7    125.5             155.2               9.9    -20.2     53.0    141.9         184.7
                                               0.7
Net income atrributable to the noncontrolling interest     -0.2    -0.1          2.5         2.8              0.1      0.0       0.4       3.0                3.5             0.5       0.4     0.4       3.0            4.3
                                             19.2          -7.3
Net (loss) income attributable to DECK common shareholders 62.5               124.7        199.1              7.9   -20.1       41.3    122.5              151.6              9.4    -20.6     52.6    138.9          180.4
Average diluted shares outstanding           39.4         38.7    39.2          39.2        39.3             39.1     37.9      37.9      37.9               38.2            37.9      37.9    37.9      37.9           37.9
EPS                                        $0.49       ($0.19)  $1.59        $3.18         $5.07          $0.20   ($0.53)    $1.10     $3.31               $3.97          $0.25    ($0.54)  $1.39     $3.67           $4.76
Depreciation and amortization              5.9           5.7         5.9         7.3        24.8             7.6         6.8         6.8         9.7        30.8            8.8         7.6       8.3      12.0        36.7
EBITDA                                    34.1          -5.1        96.6       184.1       309.7            19.5       -22.0        67.1       194.1       258.7           23.2       -22.2      86.1     220.5       307.6
Margin Analysis:
Gross profit                            50.0%         42.7%       49.0%       51.0%      49.3%            46.0%       42.2%       42.5%       48.0%      45.5%           46.8%       44.0%      45.5%    49.3%      47.3%
 bp change                                6 bps    (158) bps     183 bps    (328) bps    (94) bps       (403) bps    (56) bps   (646) bps   (296) bps   (380) bps        81 bps     182 bps    300 bps   130 bps    175 bps
SG&A                                    36.3%         49.7%       27.1%       21.7%      28.6%            41.2%       58.6%       28.0%       21.0%      30.5%           41.5%       60.0%      28.3%    21.3%      30.9%
 bp change                             478 bps     1,506 bps     381 bps      16 bps     326 bps         489 bps     890 bps      92 bps     (69) bps    188 bps         30 bps     136 bps     30 bps    30 bps     37 bps
Depreciation & amortization              2.9%          3.7%        1.4%        1.2%       1.8%             3.1%        3.9%        1.6%        1.4%       2.0%            3.3%        4.1%       1.8%     1.6%       2.2%
EBIT                                    13.8%         -7.0%       21.9%       29.3%      20.7%             4.8%      -16.5%       14.5%       27.0%      15.0%            5.3%      -16.0%      17.2%    28.0%      16.4%
 bp change                            (472) bps   (1,664) bps   (198) bps   (344) bps   (420) bps       (892) bps   (946) bps   (738) bps   (228) bps   (568) bps        51 bps      46 bps    270 bps   100 bps    139 bps
Interest                                -0.1%          0.0%        0.0%        0.0%       0.0%            -0.2%       -0.1%        0.0%        0.0%      -0.1%           -0.1%       -0.1%       0.0%     0.0%       0.0%
Pre-tax income                          13.8%         -7.0%       21.9%       29.3%      20.7%             5.0%      -16.4%       14.5%       27.0%      15.1%            5.4%      -15.9%      17.2%    28.0%      16.4%
Income tax                              30.0%         30.0%       31.2%       28.2%      29.2%            34.9%       29.4%       31.0%       32.0%      32.2%           32.0%       32.0%      32.0%    32.0%      32.0%
Net income                               9.7%         -4.9%       15.0%       21.1%      14.7%             3.3%      -11.5%       10.0%       18.4%      10.2%            3.7%      -10.8%      11.7%    19.1%      11.2%
Change (% - Y/Y):
Net sales                               31.4%        12.5%        49.1%       40.4%        38%            20.2%       13.1%        0.4%       13.1%       10.3%           9.5%        6.9%       8.7%     9.0%       8.8%
Comps                                    2.6%        23.6%        15.4%        1.0%         6%             0.0%        6.8%        8.0%       10.5%        7.7%           6.0%        3.0%       4.0%     3.0%       3.7%
Gross margin                            31.5%         8.5%        54.9%       31.9%        35%            10.5%       11.6%      -12.8%        6.5%        1.8%          11.4%       11.5%      16.4%    12.0%      12.9%
SG&A expense                            51.3%        61.4%        73.6%       41.4%        55%            36.4%       33.3%        3.8%        9.5%       17.6%          10.3%        9.3%       9.9%    10.6%      10.1%
EBIT                                    -2.2%      -181.7%        36.7%       25.6%        14%           -57.7%         NM       -33.5%        4.3%      -20.0%          20.9%        3.9%      28.9%    13.0%      18.8%
Net income                               9.3%      -184.5%        48.5%       39.2%        26%           -59.5%         NM       -33.0%       -1.3%      -23.1%          23.6%        0.1%      27.0%    13.0%      19.0%
EPS                                      6.2%      -182.7%        48.4%       40.2%        26%           -58.6%         NM       -30.9%        4.1%      -21.7%          23.5%        2.1%      26.0%    10.6%      19.9%
Store count                                 27            30          37          42          42              45          47          56          63          63            66          70         78        89          89




                                                                                               Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                                                                          5
Fiscal Year-End: December
(millions except per share)
                                                        2002       2003         2004        2005       2006        2007        2008      2009        2010        2011       2012E      2013E
Net sales                                              $99.1      $121.1      $214.8      $264.8     $304.4      $448.9      $689.4     $813.2   $1,001.0    $1,377.3     $1,519.8   $1,652.8
Cost of goods sold                                       57.6       69.7       124.7       153.6      164.2       241.5       384.1      442.1      498.1       698.3        828.3      871.8
Gross profit                                             41.5       51.3        90.1       111.2      140.3       207.5       305.3      371.1      502.9       679.0        691.5      781.0
Selling and administrative, incl. B&O                    35.0       32.4        48.0         59.3       74.0        99.8      152.6      188.8      253.9       394.2        463.6      510.2
Operating Income (EBIT)                                   6.6       18.9        42.2         51.9       66.3      107.7       152.7      182.2      249.1       284.8        228.0      270.8
Net interest expense (income)                             0.4        4.6         2.5          0.4       -1.9        -4.6        -3.3      -1.9         0.3        -0.3        -0.9       -0.7
Other expense, net (income)                               0.1        0.0         0.0          0.0        0.0         0.1        -0.3      -0.1        -1.4        -0.1         0.0        0.0
Pre-tax income                                            6.1       14.4        39.6         51.5       68.2      112.1       156.3      184.2      250.1       285.3        228.9      271.6
Income tax (benefit)                                      2.5        5.5        14.7         20.1       26.9        44.4        60.4      66.7       89.7         83.4        73.7       86.9
Net income                                                3.5        8.9        24.9         31.4       41.2        67.7        95.9     117.5      160.4       201.9        155.2      184.7
Net income atrributable to the noncontrolling interest                                                                                     0.1         2.1         2.8         3.5        4.3
Net (loss) income attributable to DECK common shareholders                                                                               117.4      158.2       199.1        151.6      180.4
Unrealized gain (loss) on foreign currency hedging
Foreign currency translation adjustment
Total other comprehensive income (loss)
Average diluted shares outstanding                     29.4        35.6        36.4        38.6       38.6        39.4        39.6       39.4       39.3        39.3        38.2       37.9
   EPS (fully diluted)                                 $0.12       $0.25       $0.68       $0.81      $1.07       $1.72       $2.42      $2.98      $4.03       $5.07       $3.97      $4.76


Depreciation and amortization                            2.6         1.7         2.3        2.8        3.1          3.5         6.0      10.2       12.3        24.8         30.8       36.7
EBITDA                                                   9.2        20.7        44.4       54.7       69.4        111.2       158.8     192.4      261.4       309.7        258.7      307.6

Margin Analysis:
Gross profit                                          41.9%        42.4%       42.0%      42.0%      46.1%        46.2%       44.3%     45.6%     50.2%        49.3%        45.5%     47.3%
 bp change                                          (25) bps       51 bps    (45) bps      2 bps    409 bps       14 bps   (193) bps   135 bps   461 bps     (94) bps    (380) bps   175 bps
SG&A                                                  35.3%        26.8%       22.3%      22.4%      24.3%        22.2%       22.1%     23.2%     25.4%        28.6%        30.5%     30.9%
 bp change                                         (195) bps    (850) bps   (444) bps      5 bps    192 bps    (207) bps    (10) bps   109 bps   214 bps      326 bps      188 bps    37 bps
Depreciation & amortization                            2.6%         1.4%        1.1%       1.0%        1.0%         0.8%        0.9%      1.3%     1.2%         1.8%          2.0%     2.2%
EBITDA                                                 9.2%        17.1%       20.7%      20.7%      22.8%        24.8%       23.0%     23.7%     26.1%        22.5%        17.0%     18.6%
EBIT                                                   6.6%        15.6%       19.6%      19.6%      21.8%        24.0%       22.2%     22.4%     24.9%        20.7%        15.0%     16.4%
Interest                                               0.4%         3.8%        1.2%       0.1%       -0.6%        -1.0%       -0.5%     -0.2%     0.0%         0.0%         -0.1%     0.0%
Pre-tax income                                         6.1%        11.9%       18.5%      19.5%      22.4%        25.0%       22.7%     22.7%     25.0%        20.7%        15.1%     16.4%
Income tax                                            42.0%        38.4%       37.1%      39.0%      39.5%        39.6%       38.6%     36.2%     35.9%        29.2%        32.2%     32.0%
Net income                                             3.6%         7.3%       11.6%      11.9%      13.5%        15.1%       13.9%     14.5%     16.0%        14.7%        10.2%     11.2%

Change (% - Y/Y):
Net sales                                              8.4%        22.1%       77.4%      23.3%      15.0%        47.5%       53.6%     17.9%      23.1%       37.6%        10.3%       8.8%
Comps                                                                                                                         32.7%     27.6%      16.6%        6.3%         7.7%       0.0%
Gross profit                                           7.7%        23.6%       75.5%      23.3%      26.2%        47.9%       47.2%     21.5%      35.5%       35.0%         1.8%      12.9%
SG&A expense                                           2.7%        -7.3%       48.0%      23.5%      24.9%        34.9%       52.9%     23.8%      34.4%       55.3%        17.6%      10.1%
EBIT                                                  45.6%       188.0%      122.6%      23.1%      27.7%        62.4%       41.9%     19.3%      36.7%       14.4%       -20.0%      18.8%
Net income                                            22.2%       151.2%      181.5%      26.2%      31.1%        64.3%       41.6%     22.5%      36.4%       25.9%       -23.1%      19.0%
EPS                                                   20.4%       107.4%      175.5%      19.1%      30.9%        61.2%       40.8%     23.1%      35.1%       25.9%       -21.7%      19.9%




                                                                                        Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                                                  6
ANALYST CERTIFICATION

All of the recommendations and views about the securities and companies in this report accurately reflect the
personal views of the research analyst named on the cover of this report. No part of this research analyst' s
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
by the research analyst in this research report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Lazard Capital Markets LLC makes a market in DECK securities.




                            DISTRIBUTION OF INVESTMENT RATINGS (AS OF 10-23-2012)
                 OVERALL DISTRIBUTION                                              BANKING CLIENT DISTRIBUTION*
        BUY                 NEUTRAL                    SELL                     BUY                 NEUTRAL                    SELL
        55%                     43%                      1%                     16%                     5%                      0%
 *Indicates the percentage of each category in the Overall Distribution that were banking clients of Lazard Frères in the previous 12 months.


RATING          GUIDELINE         (return targets may be modified by risk or liquidity issues)
BUY             Expected to produce a positive total return of more than 10% in the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL         Fairly valued; expected to product a total return +/- 10% in the next 12 months.
SELL            Expected to product a negative total return of more than 10% in the next 12 months.



DISCLAIMERS

This report has been prepared by Lazard Capital Markets LLC (“LCM”) in New York. It may not be reproduced,
redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose. This report has been approved by, and is being
distributed in the US or to US persons, by LCM, which accepts responsibility for its contents in the US.
Transactions undertaken in the US in any security mentioned herein must be effected through LCM or another
US-registered broker-dealer, in conformity with SEC Rule 15a-6.




                                                      Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                                    7
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Copyright 2012 Lazard Capital Markets LLC. All rights reserved




                                             Deckers Outdoor (DECK)                                                     8

				
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