Public Opinion by alicejenny

VIEWS: 1 PAGES: 53

									Uses and Abuses of
Market Research and
   Opinion Polls
    South Bank University
      1 November2011
    Sir Robert Worcester, KBE DL
           Founder, MORI
    Chancellor, University of Kent
           Outline of the Presentation


History of market & opinion research

Role of market & opinion research

Uses and Abuses of research

Comments / questions
                  History of Opinion Research

•   Stories of the Caliph
•   Plato, Epictetus
•   Middle Ages
•   Machiavelli
•   Hume, Rousseau, Burke, de Tocqueville, Necker, Wieland
•   Paine, Madison, Hamilton & Jay
•   MacKinnon, Lippmann
•   Gallup & Robinson, Crossley & Roper, Durant, Stoetzel &
      Morgan, ORC, Neilsen, Gallup, NOP, RSL, MORI, Ipsos
•   Crespi, Page, Shipiro, Zaller, esp. Splichal IJPOR, MRSJ

                                                               3
             Public Opinion Defined


Public Opinion is “the collective view of a
  defined population”

A Public Opinion Poll is the collective view
[of a representative sample] of a defined
population [at a point in time]


                                               4
                   A Word about Research

We measure perceptions, not facts

Two kinds of findings we bring to our clients: reality, and
misperceptions

Five things we can find: behaviour, knowledge, and…

three levels of ‘views’:

    Opinions

    Attitudes

    Values


                                                              5
                 Describing “public opinion”


Public opinion is an aggregation of
individual opinions
Public opinion reflects majority beliefs
Public opinion is found in the clash of group
interests (some term this ‘activated’ public
opinion)
Public opinion is media and elite opinion
Public opinion has power
Public opinion is a fiction
                    Why is public opinion
                  important in a democracy?

Policy in democratic states should rest on
public opinion
  Global opinions about institutions/leaders
  Specific policies and priorities
Respect for public opinion is a safeguard
against tyranny
Public opinion must at times be mobilised
Public opinion provides clues about culture
              No lack of critics…

A public opinion poll is no substitute for
thought     Warren Buffett

How far would Moses have gone if he’d
taken a poll in Egypt? Harry S Truman

Public opinion polls are rather like children
in a garden, digging things up all the time to
see how they’re growing JB Priestley
                                                 8
                    …but linked to “real” factors, e.g.

                  The more deprived your neighbourhood,
            100
                      the lower the level of happiness
Happiness




            50


                                                      R = 0.51




            0%


                                   IMD
                                                                 9
                                  …and linked to “real” factors, e.g.
                                The more upper middle class people in an
                         100%
                                 area, the higher the level of satisfaction
                                                                                       R = 0.68
Satisfaction with area




                          50




                          0%


                                         Social Class (NS-Sec 2 - Higher Managerial)

                                                                                                  10
             Cognitive polyphasia…

 “We are intelligent people,                   “We vote the
  we can make up our own                     Government in to
  minds, after hearing the                      make these
facts. Providing we hear the                 decisions for us”
           facts”




                                                “If the law needs to
“Give us the credit
                                                 change then they
 for thinking for
                                                     should do it
    ourselves”


   The same person can express apparently contradictory views

                                                                       11
What is public opinion
      research?

And what is it good for?

                           12
             The role of the pollster

Objective: to measure public opinion
systematically and objectively, at a point in
time
Quantitative: research defines who, where,
does, knows, and thinks what
Qualitative research seeks to discover why
people think the way they do and to gain
understanding of if, and how, their views
might change and the means by which these
changes might occur
                                                13
               Quant and Qual approaches
Qualitative
  In-depth interviews
  Small group discussions
  Larger consultation workshops
Quantitative
  Telephone
  Face-to-face
  Online

                                           14
           Survey Research (quant)
... a simple business really!
 All you have to do is:
   ask the right questions
   of the right sample
   add up the figures correctly
   and report the findings accurately

                                         15
                 The art of asking questions
Six Functions:
1. Maintaining the respondent's co-operation and
    involvement
2. Communicating to the respondent
3. Helping the respondent to work out how to answer
4. Avoiding bias
5. Making the interviewer's task easier
6. Providing a basis for data processing


                                                      16
             Watch out for biased questions…




             Q: Are you in favour of
                direct retaliatory
                action against
                Franco's piracy?


Gallup question, 1937
                                               17
                  … and phone(y) polls

Q How would you vote if there was a General Election
  tomorrow?
                    Express     Express   General
                     Straw     Readers    Public
                      Poll      (MORI)    (MORI)
   Sample size     c. 70,000      203      1,070
                       %           %         %
   Conservative        91         61         46
   Labour               4         26         43
   Liberal              2          9          7
   Other                3          4          4


                                                       18
                     … and misleading spin
WHAT THE MARCH OF DIMES NEWS RELEASE SAID:
Mon Dec 14 (HealthDay News) ‘’A poll of about 1,200 mothers found that
the leading cause of worry was birth defects (78 percent), followed by
concern that stress in their life might harm their baby’s health (74 percent)
and wondering whether their baby would be born too soon (71
percent)…The findings were presented Dec. 9 at a meeting of the March of
Dimes National communications Advisory Council…
WHAT THE NEWS RELEASE DID NOT SAY:
“The poll was conducted Nov. 6 to Nov. 13, 2009 using the online
software Zoomerang. There were 123 valid responses from the 1,224
women from the March of Dimes Moms e-panel…who were invited by
email to answer the 65 questions…the survey was written by Betty
Wolder Levin, Ph.D. professor of Public Health, Graduate Center of the
City University of New York.”




                                                                                19
              … and MORE misleading polls
 WHAT TIMES HIGHER EDUCATION ARTICLE SAID: Mon 14 Jan 2010
 “More that 11,000 full-time undergraduates gave their views on every
 aspect of university life, from the quality of teaching to student support,
 social life and institutional facilities…The results of the poll were used to
 decide the 2009 Times Higher Education Award for Most Improved Student
 Experience, which went to Queen Mary, University of London.” Queen
 Mary went from 82nd in 2008 to 51st in 2009, according to the tables
 accompanying the article.

WHAT THE TIMES HIGHER EDUCATION ARTICLE ALSO SAID: The
calculation was based on two sets of responses, 2008 and 2009; in 2009,
the score for Queen Mary was based on 141 responses to an on-line
survey.

BUT WHAT IT DIDN’T SAY: The 141 self selecting respondents were
from a student body of c. 15,000, with a score of 75.2. The statistical
reliability of c. 150 perfectly randomly selected students compared with the
same number in the prior year would be c. plus or minus 12, 95 times in 100,
in other words, 19 times out of 20 times would rank between 1st and 100th..
                                                                                 20
                 The science of sampling
Six Functions:
1. Ensure representation
2. Ensure replicability
3. Eliminate interviewer bias
4. Making the interviewer's task easier
5. Provide a basis for data processing
6. Provide a basis for comparison



                                           21
                        Who uses
                public opinion research?
The Media                 Political Parties
   Opinion Polls             Gauging attitudes to policies,
                              Party leaders
     general public
                          Pressure Groups
     specialist public
                              Stimulate/focus debate, exert
                              pressure
Private Companies         Government (Central and Local)
   Marketing
                              Housing needs, social
   Public Relations          conditions
   Employer                  Service delivery, charter
    Management                development

                                                                24
But the future of public opinion research?
    “Thanks to social media                                  “…for each new
    platforms…you are not      “as an industry we have       source of
    just interviewing          moved a lot of data           information, you
    people, but also you       collection activity to        need to connect the
    have people interacting    online panels.”               dots …be sure that
    with each other.“                                        what you are getting
                                                             makes sense.”

“Thanks to social
media
platforms…you are
not just interviewing           Dedier Truchot,
people, but also you
                                Chairman, Ipsos                   “We need to
have people                                                       have a better
interacting with                                                  understanding
each other.“                                                      of how we can
                                                                  communicate
                                                                  better what we
                                                                  have learned to
“..increase our ability       “We need to reduce the time
                                                                  our clients.“
to act consistently on a      delay between what we do and
worldwide basis.”             how our clients can use that
                              information.”
                                                                                    25
But the future of public opinion research?
          “Government                   “Use of panel
     researchers realising                 surveys
     they can’t any longer               expanding.”
      afford huge in-home
       random samples.“



                                                                      “More use of
“Poorer, but quicker               Bob Worcester
                                  Robert Worcester                    referendums
 and cheaper data;
                                                                      God help us.“
  less interpretive                 Founder, MORI
    reports, more
blending of qual and
      quant with
 behavioural data.“
                                                    “more willingness to employ
                   “..fewer one-trick                  research consultants as
                  ponies in research               interpreters and implementers
                   departments and                   than heretofore, as internal
                       agencies.”                     research departments are
                                                              closed.”

                                                                                      26
    But the future of public opinion research?
                                                  “business intelligence                    …surveys and other
                                                   consultants are likely                   forms of direct
          “Surveys need t be                     to take over portions of                   questioning will
          interactive, engaging                   the market now owned
          and entertaining.“ MB
                                                                                            continue to be an
                                                    by researchers.” KJ                     important source of
                                                                                            insight. RB
     “…will be a shift to
     passive methods.“
     LN
                                                                                                      “big step up in
                                                                                                      realism, e.g.
                                                 And from the                                         virtual
     “…greater reliance                          market place?                                        stores/shopping
                                                                                                      3D and devices
     on behavioural
                                                                                                      that record what
     data.“ RB                                                                                        actually
                                                                                                      happened.“ LN
                                                   “Always on, more predictive...”
      “…consumers                                  “transformation from ad hoc to
      increasingly leave rich                      periodic to continuous tracking
      data trails.” MB                             and measurement” KJ
LN (Linda Neville, Coca-Cola; JH Jeff Hunter, General Mills; Reg Barker, Market Strategies; Kees de Jong, SSI, Mike Brochu, GMI
                                                                                                                             27
              Ten Point Guide to Reading the Polls
1. When were the fieldwork dates?
2. Was the sample representative and large enough?
3. The more sampling points the better
4. Make sure of where the sample was taken
5. Is it a panel study, face-to-face or a telephone poll?
6. Are the questions unbiased?
7. Are "Don't knows" re-allocated?
8. Are differences statistically significant?
9. Full question wording, and full answer wording
10. Who paid for the poll?

                                                            28
                 10 Questions for Management

1.    Who are the publics of importance to you?
2.    How do these publics regard you now?
3.    What 'facts' are misunderstood?
4.    Are you capitalising on your reputation strengths?
5.    Are you worrying about the wrong reputation problems?
6.    Are there changes necessary in how you conduct your business and
      talk about yourselves?
6.    Are all your communications reinforcing the kind of reputation you
      seek?
7.    Are you using the right means to communicate?
9.    Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need to track these?
10.   And, over time, how do the things you and others do and say affect
      your reputation?


                                                                           29
Brands, Tracking, Communications:
     Opinions, Attitudes and Values
       Professor Sir Robert Worcester
        Chancellor, University of Kent

           South Bank Unversity
            1 November 2011
       Outline of the Presentation

Reflections on…
  The Nature of Public Opinion
  40 Years of Measuring Brands…
    - and Tracking
    - and Communication




                                     31
Public Opinion




                 32
            Defining Public Opinion


‘Public opinion is the collective
view a defined population.’

‘A public opinion poll is the
collective view [of a representative
sample] of a defined population.’
                         - Robert Worcester, 1981




                                                    33
            Dealing with Public Opinion

Perceptions, not facts (Epictetus)

Five tools to measure public opinion
  Behaviour; Knowledge: “Views”

    – Opinions

    – Attitudes

    – Values
                                          34
                  10 Questions for Management
1.    Who are the publics of importance to you? (T)
2.    How do these publics regard you now? (T)
3.    What 'facts' are misunderstood? (B)
4.    Are you capitalising on your reputation strengths? (B)
5.    Are you worrying about the wrong reputation problems? (B)
6.    Are there changes necessary in how you conduct your business and
      talk about yourselves? (C)
7.    Are all your communications reinforcing the kind of reputation you
      seek? (C)
8.    Are you using the right means to communicate? (C)
9.    Which are the benchmarks and metrics you need to track these? (T)
10.   And, over time, how do the things you and others do and say affect
      your reputation? (T)


                                                                           35
                    B




The four ‘brands’
(sometimes five)




                        36
                                               B
         The ‘Four Image Categories’

Product Image: the collection of image
attributes shared by all brands in a product
class,
Brand Image: the unique characteristics that
distinguish it from other the brands in the
product class,
Brand User Image: that describes the sort of
person who uses the brand, and
Corporate Image: the net result of the
interaction of all experiences, impressions,
beliefs, feelings and knowledge people have
                                                   37
                                                                    B
                    The fifth ‘brand’



The Image of the Country of (perceived) Ownership of
the company that produces the brands and services.

                        -Robert Worcester & Geoffrey Morris, 1973




                                                                        38
Reputations: in Perspective   B


      Attitudes to
    Major Companies

       Industries

       Companies

        Details
       of Image
        Profile




                                  39
         Definition of “Corporate                    B
               Reputation”

  “The net result of the interaction of all
experiences, impressions, beliefs, feelings
   and knowledge people have about a
   company”… industry, political party,
                religion…”

                           -Robert Worcester, 1969




                                                         40
                                               B
Definition of “Corporate Identity”



    “The visible manifestation
    of the corporate image.”

                     -Robert Worcester, 1969




                                                   41
                  Details of Corporate ReputationB

                                Corporate
                                Reputation


 Financial stability/                                       Treatment of
profitability, probity                                          staff



                                                Social/environmental
          Governance                               responsibility


                   Products &                 Customer
                    services                 satisfaction


                                                                           42
A stakeholder is…




“Anyone who
can bugger up
the business”

                    43
               Five Steps to Effective           C
                  Communications

1. Awareness (Here’s who we are)
2. Involvement (Here’s what we can do for you)
3. Knowledge (Here’re the facts)
4. Persuasion (Here’s what we want you to think)
5. Action (Here’s what you should do)




                                                     44
                                         The Communications Process                                     C


                                                        Behaviour
Research:                                              Perceptions
• Measures
  perceptions
  & behaviour of                                        Audiences
  target audiences,             e.g. Consumers, MPs, Investors, employees, business decision
  including intermediaries          makers, suppliers, media, analysts, opinion formers

                                                                                         Media evaluation:
                                                     Intermediaries                      measures the
                                                                                         content and tone
                                                         Means                           of media output
    • Tests messages &                   eg. Press releases, publications, letters,
                                           email, web sites, events, meetings etc
      means to improve their
      effectiveness
                                                        Messages


      • Provides performance
        indicators for, and                            Objectives
        feeds back into, strategy &
        objectives: benchmarks &
        metrics

                                                    Strategies                                              45
                    Effect of Source of                         C
                 Knowledge on Favourability

                          Average of 40 major companies
                                                 Favourable
TOTAL                                             100

Seen their ads                                    100
Heard or read about
them in the news                                   104

Seen name on buildings,
                                                   105
 vehicles
Used products/ services                                  120
Know someone who
 works there                                              125

                                                                    46
            Importance of communication –                                 C
                     CR experts
Effectiveness of their
Corporate
Responsibility




                                                                R2 = 0.6784



                                               Effectiveness of their
                                                  Communication
 Base: All CR experts (20), July/August 2006                                  47
                                                                                    B
      Attitudes Towards Business - 2007

Q To what extent do you agree or disagree that ...
                                                       % Disagree   % Agree
                British companies do not pay
            enough attention to their treatment               15               63
                           of the environment
                Company profits are too high in
                                        Britain               14               59
   The main responsibility of companies is to
perform competitively, even when this means
  reducing the number of people they employ             32                46
                     Old-established companies
                        make the best products           29              39
                  New brands on the market are
                    usually improvements over
                        old-established brands           29              39
        The profits of large companies help to
         make things better for everyone who      49                27
             uses their products and services
 Base: British Public (929), August 2007                                                48
                      Faith in the Benefits of Profits                                             T


     “The profits of large companies help to make things better for
       everyone who uses their products and services”
 %
60
                                                                                         2
                                                                                       R = 0.6119
     51%
50
                                                                                                  49%

40
                                                                                 Swing = - 17
     35%
30                                                                                                27%

                                                                             R2 = 0.788
20
  71

       73

            75

                 77

                      79

                           81

                                83

                                     85

                                          87

                                               89

                                                    91

                                                         93

                                                              95

                                                                   97

                                                                        99

                                                                             01

                                                                                    03

                                                                                             05

                                                                                                  07
19

      19

           19

                19

                     19

                          19

                               19

                                    19

                                         19

                                              19

                                                   19

                                                        19

                                                             19

                                                                  19

                                                                       19

                                                                            20

                                                                                  20

                                                                                       20

                                                                                              20
Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain                          Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI
                                                                                               49
 Level of companies’ profits                                                                  BT


                    “Company profits in Britain are too high”


70%
                                                                                                   59%
60%
50%                                                                                           Agree
40%                                                                              Swing = - 23
30%
20%                                                                                                14%

10%                                                                                          Disagree
 0%
        '77   '79    '81   '83   '85   '87   '89   '91   '93   '95   '97   '99   '01   '03   '05   '07


Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain                             Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI
                                                                                                  50
Faith in the established brands- 1                                                 BT


      “Old-established companies make the best products”


60%

50%
                                                                                     39%
    48%                                                                            Agree
40% 32%

30%
                                                        Swing = - 3                    29%
20%
                                                                                  Disagree
10%

 0%
      9


             5


                   7


                          9


                                 1


                                       3


                                              5


                                                    7


                                                           9


                                                                 1


                                                                        3


                                                                              5


                                                                                      7
    '6


           '8


                 '8


                        '8


                               '9


                                     '9


                                            '9


                                                  '9


                                                         '9


                                                               '0


                                                                      '0


                                                                            '0


                                                                                    '0
Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain                   Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI
                                                                                        51
 Faith in the established - 2                                                     BT


              “New brands on the market are usually
          improvements over the old established brands”

60%

50% 41%
                                                                                    39%
                                                                                  Agree
40%
       37%
30%
                                                        Swing = +7                    29%
20%
                                                                                 Disagree
10%

  0%
      9


             5


                   7


                          9


                                 1


                                       3


                                              5


                                                    7


                                                           9


                                                                 1


                                                                       3


                                                                             5


                                                                                     7
    '6


           '8


                 '8


                        '8


                               '9


                                     '9


                                            '9


                                                  '9


                                                         '9


                                                               '0


                                                                     '0


                                                                           '0


                                                                                   '0
Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain                  Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI
                                                                                       52
The importance of “Honesty”                                                             BT

 Q What do you think are the two or three most important
   things to know about a company in order to judge its
   reputation ? (Spontaneous)
                                     Customer service (40%)
 50%                                 Quality of products (29%)
                                     Honesty/ integrity (30%)                   R2 = 0.8757
                                     Linear (Honesty/ integrity (30%))
 40%

 30%

 20%

 10%

  0%
            5


                   7


                          9


                                 1


                                        3


                                               5


                                                      7


                                                             9


                                                                    1


                                                                            3


                                                                                    5


                                                                                           7
         '8


                '8


                       '8


                              '9


                                     '9


                                            '9


                                                   '9


                                                          '9


                                                                 '0


                                                                         '0


                                                                                 '0


                                                                                        '0
Base: c. 1,000 Adults throughout Great Britain                      Source: MORI; Ipsos MORI
                                                                                           53
    Thoughts to leave you with…


Hear yourself through stakeholders’ ears

Promise what you can; deliver what you promise

Hit the issues before they hit you

Exorcise corporate-speak

If you’re doing good, tell those who matter to you

                                                     54
  Thank you
chancellor@kent.ac.uk




                        55

								
To top