NY CD 06 - Exec Memo - Oct. 15th

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					To:             All Interested Parties
From:           Brian Larkin, McLaughlin & Associates
Subject:        NY CD 6 – Executive Summary
Date:           October 15th, 2012

The results of our poll taken on October 10th & 11th, 2012 show the race in New York Congressional District 6
to be wide open. Republican Dan Halloran is in a neck and neck battle against the Democrat, Grace Meng.
Overall, Halloran receives 33% to Meng’s 36%, which is well within the margin of error.

“Now, if the general election for United States Congress were held today and the candidates were Dan Halloran, the Republican,
                                   and Grace Meng, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?”
                                                                              Heard    Opinion
                                                                   TOTAL     of Both    Both
                                 COMBO DAN HALLORAN                 33%        40%       61%
                                   Definitely Vote Halloran         26%        32%       48%
                                   Probably Vote Halloran            6%         6%       9%
                                   Lean Halloran                     2%         3%       4%
                                 COMBO GRACE MENG                   36%        35%       33%
                                   Definitely Vote Meng             25%        22%       20%
                                   Probably Vote Meng                7%         8%       7%
                                   Lean Meng                         5%         5%       6%
                                 UNDECIDED                          30%        25%       7%

More importantly, Halloran leads Meng among voters who have “heard of both” and voters who have an
“opinion of both” Halloran and Meng. Among voters who have “heard of both” candidates, Halloran leads
40% to 35%. Among voters who have a firm opinion of both candidates, either favorable or unfavorable,
Halloran leads 61% to 33%. This indicates that voters who know both Halloran and Meng like Halloran better.

Proof that a Republican can continue to win in this district is how well Mitt Romney is performing against
Barack Obama. Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama on the ballot. Romney receives 46% to Obama’s
43%, with 11% undecided. Further, Obama is very weak here and receives a majority negative job rating of
61% to just 38% positive.

“Now, if the general election for United States President were held today and the candidates were Mitt Romney, the Republican,
                                  and Barack Obama, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?”
                                                                              TOTAL
                                            COMBO MITT ROMNEY                  46%
                                              Definitely Vote Romney           35%
                                              Probably Vote Romney              6%
                                              Lean Romney                       5%
                                            COMBO BARACK OBAMA                 43%
                                              Definitely Vote Obama            36%
                                              Probably Vote Obama               6%
                                              Lean Obama                        2%
                                            UNDECIDED                          11%




                       __________________________________________________________________
                 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
                   566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008
Conclusion:

The voters of this district have a history of electing Republicans, including Senator Frank Padavan, Senator Serf
Maltese, Rudy Giuliani and Dan Halloran himself. Further, portions of this district also voted for Congressman
Bob Turner.

With less than 4 weeks to go till Election Day, it is absolutely critical for Dan Halloran to continue to motivate
and turn out his base of support. In addition, he must also contrast himself from Grace Meng.

With a slim 3 point margin on the ballot, this race is the dark horse victory for the Republicans in November.
But it is critical that Dan Halloran has enough financial resources to bring his message to the voters and define
Grace Meng as soon as possible. The earlier Halloran can define his opponent, the more voters will gravitate
towards him.


Demographics:

                            Party                                                    Religion
                                        Total                                                    Total
                Republican              20%                                Catholic              46%
                Democrat                49%                                Jewish                16%
                Independent             27%                                Protestant            13%
                                                                           Muslim                 3%
                             Age                                           Atheist                7%
                                       Total                               Other                  4%
                 18-29                  6%                                 DK/Refused            11%
                 30-40                 15%
                 41-55                 21%                                           Gender
                 56-65                 31%                                                            Total
                 Over 65               21%                            Male                            49%
                                                                      Female                          51%

       Methodology:

       This survey of political attitudes was conducted among 300 general election voters in New York
       Congressional District 6, on October 10th and 11th, 2012. All interviews were conducted by
       professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within
       predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual
       general election voter turnout. The accuracy of the sample of 300 general election voters in NY
       CD 6 is within +/- 5.7%, at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-
       tabulations.


                       __________________________________________________________________
                 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447
                   566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008

				
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