"NY CD 06 - Exec Memo - Oct. 15th"
To: All Interested Parties From: Brian Larkin, McLaughlin & Associates Subject: NY CD 6 – Executive Summary Date: October 15th, 2012 The results of our poll taken on October 10th & 11th, 2012 show the race in New York Congressional District 6 to be wide open. Republican Dan Halloran is in a neck and neck battle against the Democrat, Grace Meng. Overall, Halloran receives 33% to Meng’s 36%, which is well within the margin of error. “Now, if the general election for United States Congress were held today and the candidates were Dan Halloran, the Republican, and Grace Meng, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?” Heard Opinion TOTAL of Both Both COMBO DAN HALLORAN 33% 40% 61% Definitely Vote Halloran 26% 32% 48% Probably Vote Halloran 6% 6% 9% Lean Halloran 2% 3% 4% COMBO GRACE MENG 36% 35% 33% Definitely Vote Meng 25% 22% 20% Probably Vote Meng 7% 8% 7% Lean Meng 5% 5% 6% UNDECIDED 30% 25% 7% More importantly, Halloran leads Meng among voters who have “heard of both” and voters who have an “opinion of both” Halloran and Meng. Among voters who have “heard of both” candidates, Halloran leads 40% to 35%. Among voters who have a firm opinion of both candidates, either favorable or unfavorable, Halloran leads 61% to 33%. This indicates that voters who know both Halloran and Meng like Halloran better. Proof that a Republican can continue to win in this district is how well Mitt Romney is performing against Barack Obama. Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama on the ballot. Romney receives 46% to Obama’s 43%, with 11% undecided. Further, Obama is very weak here and receives a majority negative job rating of 61% to just 38% positive. “Now, if the general election for United States President were held today and the candidates were Mitt Romney, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?” TOTAL COMBO MITT ROMNEY 46% Definitely Vote Romney 35% Probably Vote Romney 6% Lean Romney 5% COMBO BARACK OBAMA 43% Definitely Vote Obama 36% Probably Vote Obama 6% Lean Obama 2% UNDECIDED 11% __________________________________________________________________ 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008 Conclusion: The voters of this district have a history of electing Republicans, including Senator Frank Padavan, Senator Serf Maltese, Rudy Giuliani and Dan Halloran himself. Further, portions of this district also voted for Congressman Bob Turner. With less than 4 weeks to go till Election Day, it is absolutely critical for Dan Halloran to continue to motivate and turn out his base of support. In addition, he must also contrast himself from Grace Meng. With a slim 3 point margin on the ballot, this race is the dark horse victory for the Republicans in November. But it is critical that Dan Halloran has enough financial resources to bring his message to the voters and define Grace Meng as soon as possible. The earlier Halloran can define his opponent, the more voters will gravitate towards him. Demographics: Party Religion Total Total Republican 20% Catholic 46% Democrat 49% Jewish 16% Independent 27% Protestant 13% Muslim 3% Age Atheist 7% Total Other 4% 18-29 6% DK/Refused 11% 30-40 15% 41-55 21% Gender 56-65 31% Total Over 65 21% Male 49% Female 51% Methodology: This survey of political attitudes was conducted among 300 general election voters in New York Congressional District 6, on October 10th and 11th, 2012. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units were structured to statistically correlate with actual general election voter turnout. The accuracy of the sample of 300 general election voters in NY CD 6 is within +/- 5.7%, at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross- tabulations. __________________________________________________________________ 919 Prince Street * Alexandria, Virginia 22314 * Phone: 703-518-4445 * FAX: 703-518-4447 566 South Route 303 * Blauvelt, NY 10913 * Phone: 845-365-2000 * FAX: 845-365-2008