Trade

							Third Meeting of Trade Ministers of Landlocked Developing Countries




       Aid for Trade (AfT) Needs
              Assessment

                                                 Jacek Cukrowski
                                                 Economic Development and Poverty
                                                 Reduction Advisor,
                                                 UNDP, Europe and the CIS
                                                 Bratislava Regional Centre


                                 Ezulwini, Swaziland, 21-22 October 2009
                                                                              1
Outline

   Objectives of AfT Needs Assessments

   Main focus and message

   The Guide

   Proposed structure

   Current work on Aft Needs Assessments in
    Europe and the CIS


                                               2
Objectives

Why Trade Needs Assessments?
    Identify a set of policy recommendations and
    technical assistance needs aimed at improving the
    contribution of trade to human development

   Identify and overcome existing barriers to trade
   Identify the cost of adjusting to current or anticipated trade agreements
  / trade shocks
   Assess the impact of trade on poverty and human development
   Tackle institutional and infrastructure capacity limitations
  Suggest action plans to remove bottlenecks and seize opportunities for
  the poor

                                                                           3
What Trade Needs
Assessments should?
 Review of current trade and investment policies and
agreements, the business environment and investment
climate
 Review country competitiveness and export performance
 Analyse the ways to promote key sectors of the economy
 Assess the impact of trade on poverty, inequality, and
social exclusion
 Identify opportunities to use trade for human development


                                                           4
Main focus

Impact of trade on human
development
 Trade can be a powerful source of economic growth
       …but while broadly based economic growth is necessary for human
        development, it is not enough

 Human development also requires enlarging people’s
choices and opportunities—especially poor people’s
       liberalizing trade does not ensure poverty reduction or human
        development, nor does it guarantee immediate economic growth

 The nature of resource allocation and social inclusion are
important determinants of growth leading to poverty
reduction and human development
       for women and those participating in the informal sector, especially
                                                                               5
Main messages
Opening trade is key for human
development
It improves economic base
It broadens a range of human choice

  … but there could be some short-term human
     development risks that needs to be well
     understood and countries need to be
  prepared        to minimize possible negative
  impact of trade       on selected social groups



                                                    6
Main messages
Trade should be integrated into
national development policy
(development strategies)
  National ownership is critical

  Opportunities to use trade to reduce poverty and
 promote human development should be identified

  Human development risks related to trade shocks
 needs to be understood

  Suitable institutions need to be developed to ensure
 multi-stakeholder participation in trade policy design 7
Trade and national development
strategies

 If trade is to serve as an engine of economic growth
countries must develop a multidimensional strategy for
trade expansion
    Framed in an appropriate macroeconomic
   environment
       Structural and social concerns should be treated equally with
      macroeconomic and financial concerns

    Trade reforms should be an integral part of
   comprehensive development frameworks

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The Guide

How to Conduct AfT Needs
Assessments
                        Regional guide




                                                             Global guide
                                         http://www.undp.org/geneva/docs/
 http://europeandcis.undp.org            trade-AFT%20web.pdf            9
Contents of the Guide
  1. Introduction

  2. Trade Mainstreaming
  3. Trade and Human Development
  4. AfT Needs Assessment: Structure and Process

  5. Macroeconomic And Business Environment
  6. Trade and Investment Policies
  7. Trade Facilitation and Standards
  8. Sectoral Analysis
  9. Trade Policies: An Impact Assessment

  10. Final Remarks, Action Matrix and Launching the
    Study                                            10
Proposed structure of AfT Needs
Assessments
(I) Introduction
…. short country background, key analytical questions…
(II) Macroeconomic and business environment
… macroeconomic background (related to poverty, human development, trade and
competitiveness)
(III) Trade and investment policy
… policies and trade and investment dynamics, institutions, trade agreements and market access
(WTO accession; trade negotiation strategy…)
(IV) Trade facilitation
… customs procedures, transportation costs, red tapes and other behind-the-border barriers to
trade… underlying causes of inefficiency
(V) Sectoral analysis
… sectors where trade has the biggest an impact on poverty reduction and human development
(VI) Trade policy impact assessment (optional)
… impact of trade policy options on poor
(VII) Conclusions and action matrix
… Recommendations in the form of an Action Matrix. Highlight capacity gaps and propose
actions and technical assistance projects to overcome weaknesses….
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Action Matrix
 Action recommended
 Desired outcome and target indicator
 Timeline for completion of action
 Agencies involved
 Required resources
 Required donor support

   Important issues:
      • Action priorities
      • Matching with trade related technical assistance
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Current work on AfT Needs
Assessments in Europe and the CIS
 UNDP regional project: Wider Europe: AfT for Central
Asia, South Caucasus and Western CIS (2009-2010)
    Project financed by the Government of Finland
    Component I: AfT in Central Asia: Identification of National
     and Regional Priorities
        Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan
         – initiated (Uzbekistan –planned)
        AfT Road for SPECA Countries (Ministerial Conference
         planned for 2010)
      Component III: AfT Needs Assessments in South Caucasus
       and Western CIS (planned for 2010)
        Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine            13
Thank you…
     Jacek.Cukrowski@undp.org

               UNDP Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre
                        http://europeandcis.undp.org

     David.Luke@undp.org


               UNDP Geneva Trade and Human Development Unit

                        http://undp.org/geneva



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