Global Auto Report - Scotiabank by mahmoodzkoot

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									Global Economic Research                                                                                                  October 4, 2012



                                        Global Auto Report
Carlos Gomes (416) 866-4735
carlos.gomes@scotiabank.com


Global Auto Production Revs Up
— Assemblies Are Picking Up In Every Region, Except Western Europe

AS AUTO SALES ADVANCE …


G     lobal vehicle sales increased a healthy 8% y/y in July and
      August, led by double-digit gains in South America in response
to a US$10 bn stimulus package in Brazil. Purchases also continue to
                                                                                            90
                                                                                                 Global Vehicle Production Ramps Up
                                                                                                  millions of units            millions of units
                                                                                                                                                   18


gain momentum in China, with volumes advancing 11% above a year                             80                                                     16

earlier in August. However, purchases in the rest of Asia have                                                 Global
                                                                                            70                                                     14
softened, held back by lower sales in India. More recently, activity in
Japan edged down year-over-year in September, undercut by the end                           60                                                     12
of government subsidies for eco-friendly vehicles.
                                                                                                                      North America
    In the United States, passenger vehicle sales continue to gain             50                                                                  10

momentum, with purchases revving up to an annualized 14.9 million
                                                                               40                                                                  8
units in September — the highest level since March 2008, and well above
the average of 14.2 million units during the previous eight months.            30                                                                  6
Despite a sluggish labour market, consumers are taking advantage of               08   09     10    11   12  13
record-low auto loan rates to replace their aging vehicles with more fuel-
efficient models. As a result, sales of small cars surged 43.5% y/y in September, and mid-size cars advanced
17.5%. If not for lean inventory of some models, such as the Ford Fusion which had only 28 days’ supply at the
end of August — less than half the industry average — sales of mid-size cars might have been stronger.
   Sales also remain solid in Canada, advancing 6% y/y last month, and climbing to the second-highest level on
record for the month of September. We estimate that purchases totalled an annualized 1.67 million units last
month, in line with the average of the past year. As in previous months, foreign nameplates led the way in
September, with volumes surging 12% above a year earlier and capturing 56% of the Canadian new vehicle
market. Since 2008, these manufacturers have consistently garnered a majority of Canadian sales.

…GLOBAL VEHICLE PRODUCTION REBOUNDS

After a summer lull that added to the manufacturing doldrums of recent months, auto assembly plants
have started to ramp up across most of the world and will provide a significant boost to manufacturing and
overall economic activity in the final quarter of 2012. Russia and Brazil will lead the way, with vehicle
assemblies in both nations scheduled to post double-digit year-over-year increases. However, every region
except Western Europe is expected to post solid output gains in coming months, helping to revive global
manufacturing activity.
    Assemblies in South America are likely to climb more than 15% y/y in the final months of 2012, underpinned
by the recent strength in new car demand in Brazil. Car sales in Brazil have soared by more than 20% y/y in
recent months and vehicle production set a record high in August. The recent auto revival in Brazil is being driven
by government stimulus, and represents a sharp reversal from developments in the opening months of 2012 when
vehicle assemblies slumped by more than 50% y/y through April. The rebound in sales and production will boost
economic activity, as the auto sector accounts for nearly 4% of overall GDP in Brazil.

                                                  This report has been prepared by Scotia Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank.
Scotia Economics                                  Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are
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                                                  compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express
Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1
                                                  or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates
Tel: (416) 866-6253 Fax: (416) 866-2829           accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
Email: scotia.economics@scotiabank.com            TM
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           Global Auto Report is available on: www.scotiabank.com, Bloomberg at SCOE and Reuters at SM1C
Global Economic Research                                                                                                     October 4, 2012

                                                                                                                Global Auto Report
    The auto industry in Russia has been a consistent                    popular Chevrolet Equinox. The plant assembled only 2,000
outperformer, as global automakers seek to increase their                vehicles in September, but will be ramping up production to
presence in the world’s largest country. Vehicle production in           roughly 4,000 units per month during the fourth quarter.
Russia surged 42% last year and has jumped an additional 16%
                                                                             Other automakers including Ford, VW, Hyundai and Nissan
y/y through August, leaving the industry on target to reach a full-
                                                                         have also recently added third shifts at several facilities, especially
year record of 2.3 million units in 2012 and surpass assemblies in
                                                                         in the U.S. south. Further production increases are scheduled for
France. As recently as 2006, vehicle production in France was
                                                                         the New Year, as foreign automakers shift production to North
double the level prevailing in Russia. Further solid gains are
                                                                         America. For example, Toyota is hiring additional workers for
expected in coming years, as automakers plan to boost their
                                                                         both of its Canadian facilities and will be ramping up production
assembly capacity in Russia by more than 10% through mid-
                                                                         early next year. Capacity at the Cambridge, Ontario facility is
decade. While local brands still account for two-thirds of overall
                                                                         being increased by 30,000 units per annum, while the Woodstock
vehicle production in Russia, assemblies by Volkswagen, GM
                                                                         facility, which produces the popular RAV4 crossover utility, will
and Ford have surged in excess of 50% this year.
                                                                         expand by 50,000 units in early 2013.
    The improvement in vehicle production across North                       In contrast, sales in Western Europe continue to deteriorate.
America will help bolster manufacturing prospects at a                   Preliminary sales results for September point to at least a
time when durable goods orders in other sectors have been                15% slump across the region — double the 7.5% decline
weak. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index expanded in                       through August. Even prior to the double-digit downturn in
September for the first time since May, and will be                      September, French and Italian automakers had announced work
supported going forward by the ramp up of North                          stoppages up to three weeks due to weak demand. Only
American car and truck output to an annualized 15.6                      German automakers, BMW, VW and Audi are likely to raise
million units in the final quarter of 2012, up from a low of             fourth-quarter assemblies above a year earlier due to strong
less than 15.0 million units in August. In fact, given stronger-
                                                                         demand. All three manufacturers are posting solid gains in
than-expected sales in the United States in recent months,
                                                                         emerging markets, while VW is also benefitting from a higher
automakers have boosted their production schedule by 85,000
                                                                         market share in Western Europe.
units, roughly 2.5%, over the past month.
                                                                            Compounding the pain for most European mass market
    Automakers are once again running their plants at full tilt, with
                                                                         automakers is the loss of market share to Asian manufacturers,
several facilities either adding a third shift or scheduling overtime
                                                                         which in some cases have limited production in Europe. For
for the next several months to ensure that the industry has enough
                                                                         example, sales of South Korean automakers Hyundai and Kia
supply on hand to meet stronger-than-expected demand. General
                                                                         have advanced by 16% this year, garnering 6% of the Western
Motors will lead the production gains in North America in the
                                                                         European market. However, these manufacturers do not
fourth quarter, partly due to the recent re-opening of its Spring
                                                                         produce vehicles in Western Europe, but export to the region
Hill, Tennessee plant in September to add capacity to produce the
                                                                         from their facilities in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
                                                   International Car Sales Outlook
                                           1990-99            2000-08              2009              2010           2011             2012f
                                                                              (millions of units)

 TOTAL SALES                                  39.20              49.55            50.42             56.82           58.89            61.96
  North America*                              16.36              19.01            12.61             13.96           15.22            16.77
   Canada                                      1.27               1.60             1.46              1.56            1.59             1.68
   United States                              14.55              16.39            10.40             11.55           12.73            14.10
   Mexico                                      0.54               1.02             0.75              0.85            0.90             0.99

  Western Europe                              13.11              14.48             13.62            12.98           12.80            11.66
   Germany                                     3.57               3.28              3.81             2.92            3.17             3.08

  Eastern Europe                               1.18               2.73              2.58             3.14            3.90              4.33
   Russia                                      0.78               1.54              1.47             1.91            2.65              3.05

  Asia                                         6.91              10.97             17.68            22.47           22.50            24.54
   China                                       0.43               3.14              7.32             9.41           10.04            10.94
   India                                       0.31               0.83              1.43             1.87            1.95             2.05

  South America                                1.64               2.36              3.93             4.27            4.47              4.66
   Brazil                                      0.94               1.46              2.53             2.69            2.64              2.75

 *Includes light trucks.




                                                                                                                                               2
Global Economic Research                                                                                                                                                           October 4, 2012

                                                                                                                                                                Global Auto Report
                                                                   Canada/U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Outlook
                                                                        1991-05                     2006-09                     2010                     2011                       2012
                                                                        Average                                                                                              Jan-Jul ** Annual f

                                                                                    (thousands of units, annualized)
      CANADA                                                                  1,398              1,592             1,557                                1,589                 1,693             1,680
       Cars                                                                     797                841                711                                 691                   767               760
        Domestic                                                                583                527                394                                 433                   481               470
         Transplants                                                            178                278                235                                 257                   285               288
        Imports                                                                 214                314                317                                 258                   286               290
       Light Trucks                                                             601                751                846                                 898                   926               920
                                                                                      (millions of units, annualized)
      UNITED STATES                                                            15.5                14.0              11.6                                 12.7                 14.2                  14.1
       Cars                                                                      8.3                6.9                5.7                                 6.1                  7.2                   7.1
       Light Trucks                                                              7.2                7.1                5.9                                 6.6                  7.0                   7.0
                                                                                      (millions of units, annualized)
      NORTH AMERICAN
      PRODUCTION*                                                             15.58                      13.25              12.15                       13.43                 15.58             15.60
       CANADA                                                                  2.50                       2.18               2.07                        2.13                  2.43              2.50
       UNITED STATES                                                          11.67                       9.10               7.74                        8.61                 10.25             10.10
       MEXICO                                                                  1.41                       1.97               2.34                        2.69                  2.90              3.00

      *Includes transplants; light, medium and heavy trucks. **U.S. sales and North American production to September.



                                                                        Vehicle Sales Outlook By Province*
                                                                               (thousands of units, annual rates)

                                                                         1994-05                    2006-09                     2010                   2011                          2012
                                                                         Average                                                                                         Jan-Jul            Annual f

      CANADA                                                                  1,446                      1,592                  1,557                  1,589                 1,693             1,680

       ATLANTIC                                                                    102                    117                    122                    119                   122               123

       CENTRAL                                                                     936                    983                    990                    997                  1,055             1,047
        Quebec                                                                     366                    406                    414                    408                    418               420
        Ontario                                                                    570                    577                    576                    589                    637               627

       WEST                                                                        408                    492                    445                    473                   516               510
        Manitoba                                                                    42                     44                     44                     47                    50                50
        Saskatchewan                                                                36                     44                     46                     50                    55                54
        Alberta                                                                    166                    225                    200                    218                   240               237
        British Columbia                                                           164                    179                    155                    158                   171               169

      *Includes cars and light trucks.


                                                                        275                                                            275   70                                                             70
800                                                               800          thousands of units                                                  thousands of units
       thousands of units
                                                                        250                                                            250
                                                                                                                 Alberta
700                                                               700                                                                        60                                                             60
                                                                        225                                                            225
                  Ontario                                                                                                                                 Manitoba
600                                                               600   200                                                            200
                                                                                           British                                           50                                                             50
                                                                        175               Columbia                                     175
500                                                               500
                                                                        150                                                            150
                 Quebec                                                                                                                      40                                                             40
400                                                               400   125                                                            125

                                                                        100                                                            100   30                                                             30
300                                                               300
                                                                         75                                                            75                                    Saskatchewan
                                                                                                           Atlantic

200                                                               200    50                                                            50    20                                                             20
      80    84     88       92   96   00     04    08        12               80     84     88      92     96    00   04   08     12              80    84     88       92    96     00   04    08     12

       Includes cars and trucks (light, medium and heavy).
       Shaded bars indicate U.S. recession periods.




                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
Global Economic Research                                                                                                            October 4, 2012

                                                                                                                             Global Auto Report
                                               Auto Market Share By Manufacturer — Canada*
                                                            (thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)

                                                     2011                            2012                       2011                   2012
                                                   Jan to Sep                      Jan to Sep                   Sep                    Sep
                                               Units     % of Total            Units     % of Total         Units    % of Total    Units    % of Total

  TOTAL                                       544.0           100.0            595.8           100.0        57.1         100.0     65.7         100.0
   Big Three                                  148.2            27.2            146.1            24.5        13.2          23.1     14.5          22.1
    General Motors                             63.5            11.7             56.8             9.5         4.9           8.5      5.9           9.0
    Ford                                       58.3            10.7             55.1             9.3         5.7           9.9      5.0           7.6
    Chrysler                                   26.4             4.8             34.2             5.7         2.6           4.7      3.6           5.5

   Japanese                                   214.1             39.4           245.3            41.2        23.3          40.8     27.3          41.6
    Honda                                      51.8              9.5            62.4            10.5         6.3          11.0      7.4          11.3
    Toyota                                     63.0             11.6            83.9            14.1         7.5          13.2      8.9          13.5
    Nissan                                     37.6              6.9            34.5             5.8         3.2           5.6      3.3           5.0
    Mazda                                      44.9              8.3            45.0             7.6         4.7           8.3      5.6           8.6
    Mitsubishi                                  5.7              1.0             6.0             1.0         0.6           1.1      0.6           1.0
    Subaru                                      8.3              1.5            10.9             1.8         0.7           1.1      1.2           1.8

   Hyundai                                      71.4            13.1            77.8            13.1          8.1         14.2       8.6         13.2
   Volkswagen                                   34.4             6.3            38.6             6.5          4.2          7.3       4.8          7.3
   Kia                                          32.7             6.0            43.7             7.3          3.7          6.5       5.0          7.5
   BMW                                          15.6             2.9            16.1             2.7          1.6          2.8       2.4          3.6
   Mercedes-Benz                                15.3             2.8            15.4             2.6          1.6          2.8       1.7          2.5
   Other                                        12.3             2.3            12.8             2.1          1.4          2.5       1.4          2.2

  *Source: Dealer sales from the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada.




                                              Truck Market Share By Manufacturer — Canada*
                                                            (thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)

                                                    2011                             2012                       2011                   2012
                                                  Jan to Sep                       Jan to Sep                   Sep                    Sep
                                              Units     % of Total             Units     % of Total         Units    % ot Total    Units    % of Total

  TOTAL                                       703.8           100.0            739.4           100.0        80.9         100.0     80.5         100.0
   Big Three                                  441.2            62.7            443.8            60.0        48.5          60.0     47.4          58.9
    General Motors                            123.5            17.5            119.3            16.1        11.9          14.8     12.8          16.0
    Ford                                      161.0            22.9            164.1            22.2        20.0          24.7     18.6          23.1
    Chrysler                                  156.7            22.3            160.4            21.7        16.6          20.5     16.0          19.8

   Other Domestic                              25.0              3.6            31.2                4.2       3.6           4.5      3.2           4.0

   Japanese                                   142.5             20.2           167.8            22.7        17.8          22.0     19.2          23.8
    Honda                                      36.4              5.2            47.2             6.4         4.8           6.0      5.5           6.8
    Toyota                                     56.0              8.0            64.4             8.7         6.3           7.7      8.0           9.9
    Nissan                                     28.1              4.0            30.5             4.1         3.9           4.9      2.9           3.6
    Mazda                                       8.9              1.3            12.8             1.7         1.1           1.4      1.1           1.4
    Mitsubishi                                  9.7              1.4             8.9             1.2         1.1           1.4      1.1           1.4
    Subaru                                     11.9              1.7            11.6             1.6         1.6           1.9      1.5           1.9

   Hyundai                                     32.7              4.6            29.8                4.0       3.0           3.7      2.8           3.5
   Kia                                         18.9              2.7            18.0                2.5       2.7           3.3      2.1           2.6

   Other Imports                               43.5              6.2            48.8                6.6       5.3           6.5      5.8           7.2

  LIGHT TRUCKS                                682.2             96.9           710.4            96.1        77.6          95.9     76.9          95.6

  *Source: Dealer sales from the Association of International Automobile Manufacturers of Canada.




                                                                                                                                                         4
Global Economic Research                                                                       October 4, 2012

                                                                                         Global Auto Report
                                             Auto Sales By Province
                                     (thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)

                                          2011                     2012              2011              2012
                                      Jan to Jul               Jan to Jul              Jul               Jul

  CANADA                                  425.3                    463.0             62.9              63.2

   ATLANTIC                                35.1                     38.6              5.3               5.3
    Newfoundland                            7.9                      8.8              1.2               1.3
    Nova Scotia                            15.0                     16.2              2.3               2.1
    New Brunswick                          10.5                     11.5              1.5               1.6
    Prince Edward Island                    1.7                      2.1              0.3               0.3

   CENTRAL                                301.4                    325.3             44.2              44.3
    Quebec                                139.9                    145.4             20.4              19.7
    Ontario                               161.5                    179.9             23.8              24.6

   WEST                                    88.8                     99.1             13.4              13.6
   Manitoba                                 9.4                     10.0              1.5               1.5
   Saskatchewan                             7.2                      7.8              1.2               1.1
   Alberta                                 32.3                     36.1              4.8               5.1
   British Columbia                        39.9                     45.2              5.9               5.9




                                            Truck Sales By Province*
                                     (thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)

                                          2011                     2012              2011              2012
                                      Jan to Jul               Jan to Jul              Jul               Jul

  CANADA                                  542.6                    575.3             81.3              88.2

   ATLANTIC                                39.1                     41.3               6.1               6.6
    Newfoundland                           10.7                     11.8               1.7               1.9
    Nova Scotia                            13.1                     14.2               2.0               2.2
    New Brunswick                          13.6                     13.3               2.1               2.1
    Prince Edward Island                    1.7                      2.0               0.3               0.4

   CENTRAL                                311.9                    318.7             46.0              48.7
    Quebec                                112.3                    112.8             16.9              16.8
    Ontario                               199.6                    205.9             29.1              31.9

   WEST                                   191.6                    215.3             29.2              32.9
    Manitoba                               18.5                     20.5              2.9               3.2
    Saskatchewan                           21.8                     24.7              3.3               3.9
    Alberta                                96.3                    109.0             14.6              16.4
    British Columbia                       55.0                     61.1              8.4               9.4

  *Light, medium and heavy trucks.




                                                                                                               5
Global Economic Research                                                                                                       October 4, 2012

                                                                                                                       Global Auto Report
                                                   Canadian Motor Vehicle Production*
                                                  (thousands of units, not seasonally adjusted)

                                                        2011                    2012                           2011                    2012
                                                   Jan to Aug              Jan to Aug                           Aug                     Aug

  TOTAL                                               1,383.2                 1,655.1                          193.2                   231.6

   CAR                                                  658.1                   700.4                           92.3                    96.5
    Chrysler                                            128.3                   157.9                           14.6                    22.5
    Ford                                                 72.6                     0.0                            9.9                     0.0
    GM                                                  218.7                   211.6                           33.1                    33.4
    Honda                                               100.2                   157.1                           11.2                    17.6
    Toyota                                              138.3                   173.8                           23.5                    23.0

   TRUCKS**                                             725.1                   954.7                          100.9                   135.1
    CAMI (GM/Suzuki)                                      0.0                     0.0                            0.0                     0.0
    Chrysler                                            197.7                   231.9                           31.2                    36.4
    Ford                                                156.9                   164.7                           21.2                    23.3
    GM                                                  225.8                   246.4                           34.7                    33.4
    Honda                                                34.0                   121.2                            4.1                    17.7
    Toyota                                              105.0                   183.6                            8.6                    23.3
    Others                                                5.7                     6.9                            1.1                     1.0

  *Production data from Ward’s Automotive Reports. **Light, medium and heavy trucks.




               Canada — Motor Vehicle Production                                           Canada — World Auto Trade Balances
  3.4                                                           3.4            50                                                        50
         quarterly                                                                    billions of dollars


  3.0                                                           3.0            40                                                        40

                            Total                                                            Assembled vehicles
  2.6                                                           2.6            30                                                        30



  2.2                                                           2.2            20                                                        20
                                                                                                               Total

  1.8                                                           1.8            10                                                        10
                               Cars

  1.4                                                           1.4             0                                                        0



  1.0                                                           1.0            -10                                                       -10
                                                                                                       Parts
                             Trucks*
  0.6                                                           0.6            -20                                                       -20



  0.2                                                           0.2            -30                                                       -30
        82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12                              82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12


         Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rates.                         2012 data are January-July annualized.
         * Light, medium and heavy trucks.



                                                                                                                                               6
Global Economic Research                                                                                                          October 4, 2012

                                                                                                                     Global Auto Report

                                                     New & Used Car Prices

                                              Scotiabank Car Price Indicators — Canada
                                                                                            year-over-year per cent change
              25                                                                                                                  25
                                  Used*

              15                          New                                                                                     15



               5                                                                                                                  5
                                              CPI

              -5                                                                                                                  -5



             -15                                                                                                                  -15
                   79 80     82    84    86     88    90     92     94     96    98    00     02    04    06    08    10     12

                    * Scotiabank estimate from Canadian Black Book data.


                                              Scotiabank Car Price Indicators — Canada
              20                                                                                                                  20
                    thousands of dollars by age of car, seasonally adjusted
              18                                                                                                                  18

              16                                                                                                                  16

              14                                                                                                                  14

              12                          1 Year                                                                                  12

              10                                                                                                                  10

               8                                                                                                                  8
                                                   2 Year
               6                                                                                                                  6

               4                                   4 Year                                                                         4

               2                                                                                                                  2
                   79 80   82     84    86    88     90     92    94     96     98    00    02     04    06    08    10    12

                    Scotiabank estimate from Canadian Black Book data.



                                         Scotiabank Car Price Indicators — United States
                                                                                            year-over-year per cent change
              25                                                                                                                  25



              15                                                         Used                                                     15



               5                                                                                   CPI                            5


                                                                                      New
              -5                                                                                                                  -5



             -15                                                                                                                  -15
                   79 80    82     84    86    88     90     92     94     96    98    00     02    04    06    08    10    12

                    Consumer price indices for new and used cars.
                    Shaded areas indicate recession periods.




                                                                                                                                                7
Global Economic Research                                                                                                                October 4, 2012

                                                                                                                          Global Auto Report

                                                 Canadian Corporate Financial Performance

                                                  Motor Vehicle Dealers and Repair Shops
                                     Net Income                Pre-Tax            Inventory         Interest            Debt/            Return on
                                      After Tax                 Profit            Turnover         Coverage             Equity          Shareholders
                                       ($ mil)                Margin (%)            Ratio            Ratio              Ratio            Equity (%)
  Annual                1999             487                    0.82                6.83              2.31              2.41               9.58
                        2000             400                    0.75                6.79              2.10              2.02                6.46
                        2001             521                    0.75                7.06              2.13              1.98                8.37
                        2002             773                    1.02                7.48              3.09              2.04              11.28
                        2003             594                    0.91                5.30              2.65              2.91              10.14
                        2004             571                    0.69                4.98              2.25              3.17              10.49
                        2005             799                    0.93                5.35              2.55              2.74              12.90
                        2006             942                    1.20                5.16              2.64              2.75              14.37
                        2007            1089                    1.41                5.05              3.36              2.56              15.13
                        2008            1142                    1.43                5.04              3.51              2.44              14.66
                        2009            1392                    1.84                5.34              4.85              2.07              16.99
                        2010            1645                    2.05                4.98              5.33              2.15              18.61
                        2011            1939                    2.21                4.91              5.08              1.77              17.65

  Quarterly at annual rates
                   2011Q2                 1780                       2.04             5.14            5.56               1.83               16.85
                         Q3               1816                       1.89             5.01            4.08               1.75               16.19
                         Q4               2948                       3.20             5.20            6.05               1.58               24.19
                   2012Q1                 2452                       2.80             4.39            5.63               1.69               19.73
                         Q2               2680                       2.81             4.73            6.03               1.64               20.78

  Average (89-11)                         686                        1.14             6.20            2.79               2.39              10.78
  Low (89-11)                             -68                        0.10             4.30            1.10               3.57              -1.20

  Definition of Ratios:                                   Interest Coverage Ratio: (pre-tax income and interest payments)/(interest payments)
  Pre-tax Profit Margin: pre-tax income/sales             Debt/Equity Ratio: (short-term and long-term debt)/total equity
  Inventory Turnover Ratio: sales/inventory               Return of Shareholders’ Equity: after-tax income/total equity




                                                       Retail Auto Dealer Bankruptcies
     30                                                                                                                                         30
           number of bankruptcies

     25                                                                                                                                         25
                                                              2012
     20                                                       2011                                                                              20

                                                              2010
     15                                                                                                                                         15


     10                                                                                                                                         10


      5                                                                                                                                         5


      0                                                                                                                                         0
             Jan.       Feb.       Mar.         Apr.      May          June    July      Aug.       Sept.      Oct.      Nov.       Dec.

           New car dealers only; cumulative total during the year.




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