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The Boston Renaissance
……………………………………..
Race, Ethnicity, and the
Greater Boston Economy
Professor Barry Bluestone
Center for Urban and Regional Policy
Northeastern University
October 2003
Key Urban Issues
• Context of Urban Change - Macroeconomic,
Technological, and Demographic
• Uneven Growth of Metro Areas
• Increased Income Inequality among Metro Areas
• International Migration
• Decentralization of Metro Areas
• Urban Flight/Interregional Migration
• Social Polarization within cities
• Changing conditions of Inner City neighborhoods
• Housing Affordability
• Fiscal Issues
• Source: Wyly, Glickman, and Lahr, “A Top 10 List of Things to Know about American Cities,”
Cityscape, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1998
Distress and Decline Measures
• Unemployment Rate
• Change in Unemployment Rate
• Violent Crime Rate
• Change in Violent Crime Rate
• Population in Poverty
• Families in Poverty
• Change in percent of poor families
• Income per capita
• Change in income per capita
• Percent of 1970 housing stock built before 1940
• City debt burden
• Change in city debt burden
Urban Measures
• Decline: Negative changes in key conditions
• Distress: Low level conditions of desirability
• Disparity: City compared to its SMSA
• Divergence: Changes in disparity
• Source: Bradbury, Downs, and Small, Urban Decline and the Future of American Cities
(Brookings, 1982)
How Did Boston Rank?
1970 - 1980
• Most distressed and declining cities: Atlanta, BOSTON,
Cleveland, Dayton, Hartford, Philadelphia, Newark,
and Trenton
• BOSTON and Cleveland are in the most disadvantaged
third of all nine components of the city distress and decline
indexes.
• City Distress Index: BOSTON -5 (Worst)
• City Decline Index: BOSTON -4 (Worst)
• SMSA Decline Index: BOSTON -4 (Worst)
• Disparity Index: BOSTON -5 (Worst)
• Source: Bradbury, Downs, and Small, Urban Decline and the Future of American Cities
(Brookings, 1982)
The Boston Renaissance:
The Triple Revolution
Demographic Change
Percent Foreign Born Population
Figure 5.13 by Race & Ethnicity
100%
81%
80%
P e rc e n t
60%
40% 35%
20%
5%
0%
Black Hispanic White
Boston: Foreign Born
Top 3 Countries of Origin
60% Italy
50%
40%
30% Canada
20%
10%
Ireland
0% Ireland China
1950 Haiti
1990
Lawrence: Foreign Born
Top 3 Countries of Origin
60% Greece
50% Laos
40%
30% Ireland Portugal
20%
10%
0% Canada
Dominican Republic
1950
1990
Lowell: Foreign Born
Top 3 Countries of Origin
70% Greece
60%
Laos
50%
40%
Ireland Portugal
30%
20%
10%
0% Canada
Dominican Republic
1950
1990
Figure 5.12 Years of Education
Native Born vs. Foreign Born
Native Born
50%
P e rc e n t
36%
34%
23%
7%
0%
0-11 12 13-15 16 or more
Foreign Born
50%
P e rc e n t
31%
29%
19% 21%
0%
0-11 12 13-15 16 or more
P e r c e n t o f T o ta l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population - Boston
1865-1990
40.8%
40%
32.2%
30%
20% 18.1%
9.8%
10%
5.3%
2.6% 3.1%
1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2%
1.2%
0%
1865 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
%Black %Other Non-White
P e r c e n t o f T o t a l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population
Boston
60%
50.5%
50%
40.8%
40%
32.2%
30%
18.1%
20%
9.8%
10% 5.3%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Black Hispanic Asian Other/Multiracial
P e r c e n t o f T o t a l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population
Brockton
50%
41.8%
40%
30%
20.6%
20%
8.7%
10%
4.7%
1.0% 1.8%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Black Hispanic Asian Other/Multiracial
P e r c e n t o f T o t a l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population
Cambridge
40%
35.4%
30% 26.8%
19.6%
20%
13.0%
10% 7.6%
4.7%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Black Hispanic Asian Other/Multiracial
P e r c e n t o f T o t a l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population
Chelsea
70%
61.7%
60%
50%
41.4%
40%
30%
20%
9.8%
10% 2.5%
0.8% 1.2%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Black Hispanic Asian Other/Multiracial
P e r c e n t o f T o t a l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population
Lawrence
70% 65.9%
60%
49.6%
50%
40%
30%
14.2%
20%
10% 1.5%
0.3% 0.6%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Black Hispanic Asian Other/Multiracial
P e r c e n t o f T o t a l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population
Lowell
40% 37.5%
30%
22.1%
20%
10% 4.4%
1.2%
0.2% 0.6%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Black Hispanic Asian Other/Multiracial
P e r c e n t o f T o t a l P o p u la t io n
Minority Population
Somerville
30% 27.3%
20%
14.5%
10%
4.1%
2.9%
0.4% 0.7%
0%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Black Hispanic Asian Other/Multiracial
Boston By Race
1980-2000
Non-Latino White 1980 1990 2000
3% 1% 5% 1% 5%
Black/African 6% 8%
11%
American
Hispanic 14%
22%
Asian/Pacific Islander
24% 59%
Other/Multiracial 49%
68%
24%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 67.9% 382,123 59.0% 338,734 49.5% 291,561
Black/African American 21.7% 122,203 23.8% 136,887 23.8% 140,305
Hispanic 6.4% 36,068 10.8% 61,955 14.4% 85,089
Asian/Pacific Islander 2.6% 14,910 5.2% 29,640 7.5% 44,280
Other/Multiracial 1.4% 7,690 1.2% 7,067 4.7% 27,906
Total 100% 562,994 100% 574,283 100% 589,141
Neighborhood by Race
Allston-Brighton
1980-2000
Non-Latino White 1980 1990 2000
1% 1%
Black/African 4% 6% 10% 4%
14%
American 4% 9%
Hispanic
9%
7%
Asian/Pacific Islander
4%
69%
Other/Multiracial 73%
85%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 84.8% 55,314 73.1% 51,395 68.7% 47,835
Black/African American 3.9% 2,558 6.6% 4,650 4.5% 3,110
Hispanic 4.5% 2,911 9.1% 6,413 9.1% 6,336
Asian/Pacific Islander 5.7% 3,745 10.5% 7,371 13.8% 9,611
Other/Multiracial 1.1% 736 0.6% 455 4.0% 2,756
Total 100% 65,264 100% 70,284 100% 69,648
Neighborhood by Race
Charlestown
1980-2000
1980 1990
Non-Latino White 2000
2% 0%
0% 1% 0% 2% 5% 1%
1% 1%
Black/African 12%
American
4%
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
98% 95% 78%
Other/Multiracial
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 97.5% 13,034 94.6% 13,927 78.6% 11,946
Black/African American 0.2% 24 0.7% 106 3.5% 539
Hispanic 0.9% 124 2.1% 310 11.6% 1,764
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.9% 124 2.1% 316 5.0% 761
Other/Multiracial 0.4% 58 0.4% 59 1.2% 185
Total 100% 13,364 100% 14,718 100% 15,195
Neighborhood by Race
North Dorchester
1980-2000
Non-Latino White
1980 1990 2000
Black/African 1% 4% 7%
American 13% 6% 13%
Hispanic
13%
16% 14%
Asian/Pacific Islander
36%
Other/Multiracial 66% 53% 14%
20%
24%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 67.0% 15,935 52.6% 13,186 35.6% 10,241
Black/African American 16.1% 3,825 19.8% 4,964 24.3% 7,003
Hispanic 12.5% 2,980 14.4% 3,600 14.2% 4,075
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.6% 146 6.4% 1,604 13.2% 3,788
Other/Multiracial 3.8% 903 6.8% 1,714 12.7% 3,668
Total 100% 23,789 100% 25,068 100% 28,775
Neighborhood by Race
South Dorchester
1980-2000
Non-Latino White 1980 1990 2000
2%
6% 1%
Black/African 3% 2% 8%
American 10% 10%
Hispanic
27% 10%
30%
Asian/Pacific Islander 49%
64%
Other/Multiracial 36%
42%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 65.0% 38,410 48.0% 29,131 30.0% 19,012
Black/African American 26.9% 15,916 36.5% 22,125 41.7% 26,432
Hispanic 5.9% 3,496 10.2% 6,213 10.3% 6,493
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.5% 306 3.3% 1,997 9.6% 6,066
Other/Multiracial 1.7% 995 1.9% 1,164 8.4% 5,337
Total 100% 59,123 100% 60,630 100% 63,340
Neighborhood by Race
East Boston
1980-2000
Non-Latino White 1980 1990 2000
3% 0% 1%
Black/African 0% 4% 1% 4%
4%
American 18%
Hispanic
2%
Asian/Pacific Islander
39%
Other/Multiracial 50%
75%
96%
3%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 95.8% 30,839 75.8% 24,977 49.7% 19,078
Black/African American 0.4% 121 2.1% 702 3.1% 1,177
Hispanic 2.9% 942 17.6% 5,805 39.0% 14,990
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.3% 108 3.8% 1,260 4.0% 1,553
Other/Multiracial 0.5% 168 0.6% 197 4.2% 1,615
Total 100% 32,178 100% 32,941 100% 38,413
Neighborhood by Race
Hyde Park
1980-2000
Non-Latino White 1980 1990 2000
1% 1% 1% 4%
2% 4% 1% 0%
Black/African
12% 13%
American
Hispanic 22%
Asian/Pacific Islander
43%
73%
Other/Multiracial 84% 39%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 84.7% 25,584 72.3% 21,686 43.0% 13,629
Black/African American 12.5% 3,772 21.9% 6,561 39.2% 12,450
Hispanic 1.7% 504 4.3% 1,303 12.5% 3,981
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.5% 159 1.0% 311 1.5% 472
Other/Multiracial 0.7% 204 0.4% 124 3.8% 1,194
Total 100% 30,223 100% 29,985 100% 31,726
Neighborhood by Race
Roxbury
1980-2000
Non-Latino White 1980 1990 2000
0% 3% 8% 0% 3% 6% 1% 8% 5%
Black/African 13%
American 19%
Hispanic 24%
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other/Multiracial 62%
72%
76%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 8.1% 4,681 6.0% 3,524 4.8% 2,742
Black/African American 75.7% 43,743 71.2% 41,956 62.6% 35,441
Hispanic 13.3% 7,677 19.3% 11,373 24.4% 13,827
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.3% 165 0.5% 267 0.6% 355
Other/Multiracial 2.6% 1,485 3.0% 1,773 7.6% 4,293
Total 100% 57,751 100% 58,893 100% 56,658
Neighborhood by Race
South Boston
1980-2000
Non-Latino White 1980 1990 2000
0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 4% 2%
Black/African 1% 1% 2% 7%
American 2%
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Other/Multiracial
95% 85%
99%
1980 1990 2000
Non-Latino White 98.5% 29,993 95.4% 28,145 84.5% 25,327
Black/African American 0.0% 15 0.9% 266 2.5% 741
Hispanic 0.5% 160 1.5% 447 7.5% 2,244
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.5% 143 1.8% 522 3.9% 1,166
Other/Multiracial 0.5% 145 0.4% 108 1.6% 487
Total 100% 30,456 100% 29,488 100% 29,965
The Industrial Revolution
Table 3.2
White Collar vs. Blue Collar Employment
Metro Boston and the U.S., 1950 & 1990
Metro Boston U.S.
1950 1990 1950 1990
White Collar Employment 47% 69% 47% 60%
Blue Collar Employment 42% 19% 42% 27%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics , Employment, Hours, and Earnings for States and Local
Areas, 1995.
Employment in SERVICES
Metro Boston -- By Sector
Recreation (5.00%)
Personal Service (17.00%)
1950
Private Household (11.00%) Professional (54.00%)
Repair (7.00%)
Business (6.00%)
Recreation (3.00%)
Personal Service (6.00%)
Private Household (1.00%)
Repair (3.00%)
Business (11.00%)
1990
Professional (76.00%)
Figure 3.10 Number of Employees per 100
Professional & Technical Workers
Sales & Clerical Service Occupations
500 500
221
154
126
94
65 53
0 0
1950 1970 1990 1950 1970 1990
Skilled Blue Collar Semi/Unskilled Blue Collar
500 500
233
129
92
63 39 41
0 0
1950 1970 1990 1950 1970 1990
The Spatial Revolution
Income and Wealth
Figure 5.3 Mean and Median Family Income
In c o m e by Race & Ethnicity
$50,000 $48,609
$46,781
A n n u a l F a m ily
$42,500
$40,000 $37,500
$31,210
$30,000 $27,500 $26,710
$22,500
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Black Hispanic White All
Mean Median
Figure 5.6
Average Family Net Assets by Race & Ethnicity
20000
$16,595
15000
10000
5000
$
$583
0
Black Hispanic Whit e
-5000 -$4,368
-10000
Racial Group
Figure 5.7
Average Family Net Assets by Race, Ethnicity & Age
Respondents Aged 21-34
2000 $1,351
1000
0
-1000 Black Hispanic White
-2000
$
-$1,612
-3000
-4000
-5000
-6000 -$5,652
Racial Group
Respondents Aged 35-54
20000
$15,459
15000
10000
$
5000 $2,037
0
Black Hispanic White
-5000 -$3,791
Racial Group
Figure 5.8
Homeownership Status by Race/Ethnicity
Who Owns Free and Clear?
70% 64%
% ow ning/free and c lea r
60%
50% 42%
40%
30% 24%
20%
10%
0%
Black Hispanic White
owns fre e and cle ar
Men’s Earnings
High School Degree or Less
Figure 8.4 Labor Force Participation Rat
Men
More than 12 Years of Education
Men
100% 90.3% 92.3% 89.4%
80%
Percent
60%
40%
20%
0%
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Men
100% 87.2%
86.2% 82.7%
80%
Percent
60%
40%
20%
0%
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.5 Employed in the Last Year
Men
More than 12 Years of Education
Men
100% 93.3% 91.1% 90.8%
80%
Percent
60%
40%
20%
0%
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Men
100%
78.7% 76.8% 74.1%
80%
Percent
60%
40%
20%
0%
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.6 Unemployment Rate
Men
More than 12 Years of Education
Men
16%
12%
Percent
8.2%
8%
4% 2.1% 2.8%
0%
Black Hispanic White
HS Degree or Less
Men
16% 15.2%
12%
Percent
8% 7.1% 7.1%
4%
0%
Black Hispanic White
Figure 8.7 Mean Weekly Hours
Men
More than 12 Years of Education
H o u rs p e r W e e k
50
48.2
45
41.3
40 39.3
35
30
Black Hispanic White
HS Degree or Less 50.5
H o u rs p e r W e e k
50
45
43.0
40
35
34.9
30
Black Hispanic White
Figure 8.2 Median Hourly Wage Rate
Men
More than 12 Years of Education
Men
$18 $16.27
$15
$12 $10.58
$8.75
$9
$6
$3
$0
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Men
$18
$15
$12
$11.54
$9.62
$9 $8.14
$6
$3
$0
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.1 "Expected"Annual Earnings
Men
More than 12 Years of Education $35,436
$30,000
$25,000
$20,087
$20,000
$15,151
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
Black Hispanic White
HS Degree or Less
$30,000
$25,000 $23,291
$20,000
$14,751
$15,000 $12,762
$10,000
$5,000
$0
Black Hispanic White
Figure 8.9 Men - Annual Earnings Ratios
Impact of Human Capital Factors
WM Age, Educ, AQ, Exp, Health, AF 1.01
0.68
WM ASSESSUQ 0.74
0.60
WM Occupational Experience 0.66
0.58
WM Education 0.67
0.57
WM Age 0.78
0.55
Original Annual Earnings Ratios 0.63
0.55
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Black/White Ratio Hispanic/White Ratio
Population of GBSS men with High School Degree or Less Schooling
Figure 8.12 Men - Annual Earnings Ratios
Human Capital, Residence, Job Types
0.87
(A)+(B)
0.92
0.78
WM Job Characteristics (B)
0.70
0.71
Live in Majority White Census Block (A)
0.72
1.01
WM Human Capital
0.69
0.63
Original Annual Earnings Ratios
0.55
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Black/White Ratio Hispanic/White Ratio
Population of GBSS men with High School Degree or Less Schooling
Women’s Earnings
High School Degree or Less
Figure 8.16 Labor Force Participation Rate
W omen
More than 12 Years of Education
Women
86.1%
80%
67.3%
Percent
65.9%
60%
40%
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Women
80%
66.1% 66.2% 67.5%
Percent
60%
40%
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.17 Employed in the Last Year
W omen
More than 12 Years of Education
Women 86.2%
80% 75.6%
63.0%
Percent
60%
40%
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Women
80%
63.4% 61.7%
Percent
60.7%
60%
40%
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.18 Unemployment Rate
W omen
More than 12 Years of Education
Women
20%
16%
Percent
12%
8%
7.5% 6.4%
5.0%
4%
0%
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Women
20.6%
20%
16%
Percent
12%
8.8%
8% 6.7%
4%
0%
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.14 Median Hourly Wage Rate
W omen
More than 12 Years of Education
Women
$12
$11.55
$9.00 $8.64
$9
$6
$3
$0
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Women
$12
$10.12
$9 $7.95 $8.45
$6
$3
$0
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.19 Mean Weekly Hours
Women
More than 12 Years of Education
Women
40
37.5 36.1
Hours per W eek
35
32.2
30
25
20
Black Hispanic White
HS Degree or Less
Women
40 38.2
34.2
Hours per W eek
35 33.1
30
25
20
Black Hispanic White
Figure 8.13 "Expected" Annual Earnings
W omen
More than 12 Years of Education
Women
$20,000
$17,735
$15,000
$10,925
$10,000 $8,923
$5,000
$0
Black Hispanic W hite
HS Degree or Less
Women
$20,000
$15,000
$10,378 $11,101
$10,000
$7,188
$5,000
$0
Black Hispanic W hite
Figure 8.21 Women - Annual Earnings Ratios
Impact of Human Capital Factors
0.96
WF Educ, OccExp, Health
0.77
0.93
WF Occupational Experience
0.68
0.81
WF Health Condition
0.65
1.09
WF Education
0.73
0.94
Original Annual Earnings Ratios
0.65
40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120%
Black/White Ratio Hispanic/White Ratio
Population of GBSS women with High School Degree or Less Schooling
Figure 8.23 Women - Annual Earnings Ratios
Impact of Race & Residence
0.96
Live in Majority White Census Block
0.62
1.11
Treated as Native Born
0.59
0.71
Treated as White
0.55
0.94
Original Annual Earnings Ratios
0.65
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Black/White Ratio Hispanic/White Ratio
Population of GBSS women with High School Degree or Less Schooling
Figure 8.24 Women - Annual Earnings
by Family Type
$13,728
Married with No Children $15,464
$11,847
$9,770
Single with No Children $12,456
$8,511
$6,162
Married with 2 Children $10,288
$5,338
$1,392
Single with 2 Children $5,166
$1,383
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000
Black Hispanic White
Population of GBSS women with High School Degree or Less Schooling
