Docstoc

PowerPoint Presentation - South London Business

Document Sample
PowerPoint Presentation - South London Business Powered By Docstoc
					                    The Mayor’s Outer London
                          Commission
                              Introduction



Outer          Outer
 London         London
  Commission     Commission
Outline



    •     Outer London
           • Working definition
           • Characteristics of outer London
    •     The 2008 London Plan policies
    •     The purpose of the Outer London Commission
           • Initial questions - Economy, Quality of Life and Transport
    •     Next steps




Outer
 London                                                                   2
  Commission
Outer London: a working definition




Outer
 London                              3
  Commission
Outer London economic issues


   Population and employment
   • Outer London has 60% of London’s population, 40% of its employment
   • 60% of its residents work there & a third commute to inner/central London

   BUT
   • In London as a whole employment grew by 6% 1989 – 2001 and by 3% 2001 – 2007
     (and Inner London outside the centre by 14% 1989 – 2001)

   WHILE
   • Outer London grew by only 1% 1989 - 2001 and by 2% 2001 - 2007 (and adjacent
     counties grew by 11% 1989 – 2001)




  IS THIS JUST ‘IN THE NATURAL ORDER OF THINGS’
                FOR A BIG CITY REGION?
Outer
 London                                                                             4
  Commission
Levels of local employment vary across London, but what do borough
boundaries conceal?

       Levels of total employment
                                                             1989   2001   2007


         Barking & Dagenham

                     Barnet
                                                                                        •   Variations across
                     Bexley                                                                 Outer boroughs
                      Brent
                                                                                            over past two
                    Bromley
                   Croydon
                                                                                            economic cycles
                      Ealing                                                            •   Sharp growth in
                     Enfield
                                                                                            Hillingdon,
                   Haringey

                    Harrow
                                                                                            Richmond, Barnet
                   Havering                                                             •   Declines in Barking,
                  Hillingdon
                  Hounslow
                                                                                            Waltham Forest,
       Kingston Upon Thames                                                                 Croydon, Hounslow
                     Merton
                                                                                        •   Outer London
                   New ham

                  Redbridge
                                                                                            growth weaker
      Richmond Upon Thames                                                                  overall than Inner
                     Sutton                                                                 London and areas
             Waltham Forest
                                                                                            surrounding London
                               0    50   100           150           200          250
Outer                                      thousands
 London                                                                                                            5
  Commission
Employment structure: different parts of outer London


               Heathrow
                                                                                                      •   Heathrow almost all
                Croydon
                                                                                                          transport, freight
       Thames Gatew ay
                                                                                                          and storage jobs
         Western Wedge                                                                                •   Outer urban areas:
           Wandle Valley                                                                                  larger proportions in
             M1 Corridor
                                                                                                          local activities,
                                                                                                          schools, hospitals
        Stansted Corridor
                                                                                                      •   Greatest shares of
         Eastern London
                                                                                                          financial jobs in
    South Eastern London                                                                                  Croydon and SE
   South Western London                                                                               •   Manufacturing most
         Western London                                                                                   important to TG;
                                                                                                          wholesale to
        Northern London
                                                                                                          Western Wedge
                            0%                 20%   40%       60%                 80%         100%

                            Financial services             Professional services
                            Creative activities            Goods retail
                            Leisure activities             Schools and hospitals
Outer                       Local activities               Passenger transport, freight and storage
 London                     Wholesale                      Manufacturing (excl publishing)
                                                                                                                                  6
  Commission
Employment and unemployment rates




               Employment rates




                                    Unemployment rates


Outer
 London                                                  7
  Commission
 Why is there more growth in the western Outer Metropolitan Area
 than in Outer London?

                Total employment change 1989 - 2001




Outer
 London
  Commission
 Employment in outer London is projected to increase by 11% overall (2006
 – 2026) compared to central (26%) and inner (27%)




Outer
 London                                                                     9
  Commission
  How does transportation bear on economic growth?
  The majority of outer London workers live in outer London

 Flows of workers within, into and out of London




Outer
 London                                                       10
  Commission
  Residents’ trips: number and main mode shares




Outer
 London                                           11
  Commission
Traffic flow changes 1993 - 2007, flows of all motor vehicles (million km)


                                                        Outer London (LHS)        Inner London (RHS)
       23,500                                                                                          10,100


       23,000                                                                                          10,000



       22,500                                                                                          9,900


       22,000                                                                                          9,800


       21,500                                                                                          9,700


       21,000                                                                                          9,600



       20,500                                                                                          9,500


       20,000                                                                                          9,400
                93   94   95   96   97   98   99   00    01    02    03      04     05    06    07
Outer
 London                                                                                                         12
  Commission
How does population change bear on economic growth? For example 230 local
jobs per 1000 population
         O.L. projected population 2006 - 2026
      Thousands
                               2006        2026 projected % changes
      Croydon                 329.8       335.2                 1.6
                                                                      •   Croydon, Barnet
      Barnet                  321.1       377.4                17.5       and Ealing the most
      Ealing                  308.8       334.9                 8.5
      Bromley                 297.4       303.1                 1.9
                                                                          populous Outer
      Enfield                 285.1       285.4                 0.1       boroughs
      Brent                   273.3       291.2                 6.6
      Redbridge               246.0       264.1                 7.4   •   Populations
      Hillingdon              244.2       246.5                 0.9       forecast to grow
      Greenwich               229.9       281.2                22.3
      Havering                226.7       233.0                 2.8
                                                                          fastest in Barking,
      Waltham Forest          223.2       230.9                 3.5       Greenwich and
      Hounslow                220.3       243.1                10.4       Barnet
      Bexley                  215.6       218.6                 1.4
      Harrow                  214.4       214.1                -0.1   •   Harrow, Enfield and
      Merton                  192.0       193.7                 0.9
      Sutton                  180.8       181.0                 0.1
                                                                          Sutton all forecast
      Richmond upon Thames    180.4       189.3                 4.9       to remain stable
      Barking and Dagenham    166.8       221.5                32.8
      Kingston upon Thames    152.1       159.1                 4.6   •   Outer London
                                                                          population set to
      Outer London           4,508.0     4,803.6               6.6
      Inner London           2,953.4     3,461.6              17.2        rise less sharply
                                                                          than Inner London
Outer London                 7,461.4     8,265.2              10.8
 London                                                                                     13
  Commission
…and how does housing bear on the economy?


            Net conventional housing completions (3 yr average)
          4,500                                                                                                               14,000


          4,000
                                                                                                                              12,000

          3,500
                                                                                                                              10,000
          3,000


          2,500                                                                                                               8,000


          2,000                                                                                                               6,000

          1,500
                                                                                                                              4,000
          1,000

                                                                                                                              2,000
           500


               0                                                                                                              0
                   89   90   91     92    93    94    95   96   97    98    99      00   01   02   03   03-   04-   05- 06-
                                                                                                        04    05    06 07
                                  Outer North East (LHS)        Outer North (LHS)             Outer South East (LHS)
Outer                             Outer West (LHS)              Outer South West (LHS)        Inner London (RHS)
 London                                                                                                                                14
  Commission
What does an older population mean for the Outer London economy?


       Population growth by age group 2006 - 2026




Outer
 London                                                            15
  Commission
Does Outer London’s social composition have economic implications?


   Change in High Socio-Economic Group 1991-2001
   (Social Occupation Class 1-3)




Outer
 London                                                              16
  Commission
Household income distribution (equivalised % of households 2008)

                                                            under 15K   15K - 30K   30K - 60K    60K+

       Barking and Dagenham
                                                                                                          •   Newham and
                      Barnet
                     Bexley
                                                                                                              Barking have
                       Brent                                                                                  highest shares of
                    Bromley                                                                                   households with
                    Croydon
                                                                                                              incomes under
                      Ealing
                      Enfield
                                                                                                              £15k – both
                   Haringey                                                                                   around 25%
                    Harrow
                                                                                                          •   Richmond,
                   Havering
                   Hillingdon
                                                                                                              Kingston and
                  Hounslow                                                                                    Bromley with
       Kingston upon Thames                                                                                   highest shares of
                     Merton                                                                                   households
                   New ham
                  Redbridge
                                                                                                              collecting over
      Richmond upon Thames
                                                                                                              £60k at 26%,
                      Sutton                                                                                  20% and 18%
             Waltham Forest                                                                                   respectively
               Outer London
               Inner London
             Greater London
                Great Britain
Outer                          0%   10%   20%   30%   40%    50%    60%     70%     80%    90%     100%
 London                                                                                                                           17
  Commission
Indicative floorspace need 2001 - 2016




Outer
 London
  Commission                             18
Outer
 London
                                        0
                                            10
                                                 20
                                                      30
                                                           40
                                                                50
                                                                     60
                                                                          70




  Commission
                              Sutton

                           Redbridge

                Kingston upon Thames

                              Barnet

                            Havering

                             Bromley

                              Harrow

                           Hounslow

                              Bexley

               Richmond upon Thames

                               Brent

                              Ealing

                        Outer London

                            LONDON

                           Hillingdon

                              Enfield

                             Croydon

                              Merton

                        Inner London

                      Waltham Forest
                                                                                                                                                                Are skills and training a barrier to realising outer London potential?




               Barking and Dagenham

                           Greenwich
                                                                               Eg GCSE (5+ A*-C) attainment including English and Maths by London Borough (%)




      19
      2008 London Plan policies


     How do these bear on realising the potential of outer London?
     For example ….




Outer
 London
  Commission
Town centres: London’s most important business locations outside the centre?




Outer
 London                                                                    21
  Commission
Opportunity & Intensification Areas: how do we make the most of this
brownfield potential?




Outer
 London                                                                22
  Commission
Industrial land: what roles should it have in a 21st century city?




Outer
 London                                                              23
  Commission
 How best to realise the potential of disadvantaged neighbourhoods?




Outer
 London                                                               24
  Commission
Overall, is there a more effective spatial planning structure to realise outer
London’s potential?




Outer
 London
  Commission
How could the concept of ‘growth-hubs’ relate to this structure?


  The objectives for growth-hubs would be to help lift Outer London economic
     growth above its long term trend by (for example) providing:
  • competitive advantage for clusters of activities on a scale of greater than sub
     regional significance e.g. office, health, culture, retail,
  • unique opportunities to address barriers to growth which have hitherto constrained
     Outer London in making a greater contribution to the London economy
  • development capacity to support this scale of economic activity
  • accessibility beyond the sub-regional, based on multi-modal hubs with enhanced
     local as well as wider connections
  • a sense of place/destination of a quality of greater than sub-regional distinction
  • viable justification including densification for any necessary strategic infrastructure
     and other investment
  • strategic residential capacity to help underpin this investment, to lend vitality and
     viability to the hub and to help meet other housing objectives,
  AND
  • which will complement other business locations and their distinct ‘offers’ in Outer
     London rejuvenation
Outer
 London                                                                                  26
  Commission
               Purpose of the Outer
               London Commission
      • find out the extent to which Outer London has potential to
        contribute to the economic success of London as a whole,
      • identify the factors which are holding it back from making that
        contribution, and
      • make recommendations on policies and mechanisms which will
        enable it to do so.


Outer
 London                                                                   27
  Commission
  …..and more particularly to:


  •   identify the scope to ‘grow’ the Outer London economy on a sustainable basis:
      removing barriers to growth for competitive, established sectors/in attracting
      new ones
  •   explore the potential contribution of a few large ‘super-hubs’ eg Stratford,
      Croydon, Brent Cross, Heathrow area
  •   wider rejuvenation of Outer London’s town centres and other business
      locations
  •   enhance the ‘quality of life’: business and residential environments
  •   examine the relationship between demographic, housing and economic growth
  •   make the most of Outer London’s distinct townscapes, including potential of
      some locations for tall buildings
  •   improve infrastructure, especially the balance between different types of orbital
      and radial movement, strategically & locally,
  •   extend and deepen the skills base, addressing barriers to employment now &
      in future,
  •   enhance linkages with other parts of London and the wider South East,
  •   suggest more effective funding arrangements and new priorities for the future
  •   suggest refinements to relevant institutional arrangements.
Outer
 London             RECOMMENDATIONS MUST BE PRACTICAL, REALISTIC                          28
  Commission                 AND TIGHTLY TIMETABLED
 Outer London Commission: Working arrangements



      • Economic analyses: historic trends and ‘what if’ economic
      scenarios/transport implications

         AND

      • Investigating views of key stakeholders in the Outer London economy
      through:
               - Written responses to an evolving set of questions
               - One to one/small group discussions
               - Meetings in public in the quadrants of outer London

      • Commission composed of 4 business, 3 boroughs, one each from TFL,
      LDA, academia, design, voluntary, independent planning




Outer
 London                                                                       29
  Commission
Some initial questions on the outer London economy : (economic)


    •   What barriers to growth have led to OL lagging behind Inner & Central
        London and the wider SE?
    •   How do these barriers bear on different sectors and areas and how can they
        best be addressed?
    •   What role should public policy/investment have?
    •   What form should super-hubs take; what could they do relative to existing
        policy; how many and where should they be; how should they relate to other
        business locations
    •   How should Outer London opportunities relate to those in rest of London and
        wider South East
    •   What role should housing led regeneration have?




Outer
 London                                                                               30
  Commission
 …further questions on the outer London economy : (quality of life)


   •   How has quality of life (QoL) changed in the last 25 years and how
       does this bear on business?
   •   From an economic perspective what QoL improvements would be most
       effective? How could super-hubs support them?
   •   What is the relationship between local social infrastructure provision,
       QoL and economic rejuvenation?
   •   What is the relationship between local sense of place and the public
       realm, QoL and economic rejuvenation?




Outer
 London                                                                          31
  Commission
…and on the outer London economy : (transport)



  •   What transport investment is needed to support greater economic growth?
  •   In light of congestion and climate change objectives and limited resources,
      what should be the balance between public and private modes and where
      should investment be made?
  •   Given employment opportunities, what balance should be struck between
      orbital and radial improvements?
  •   What needs to be done to make public transport more attractive and what
      approach to traffic management is most appropriate NB car parking
  •   Would super-hubs improve access to jobs and services, reduce car use,
      relieve congestion & pollution and be an efficient use of transport investment?




Outer
 London                                                                                 32
  Commission
Next Steps



     Responding

     • What are your answers to these questions?
     • Are there any other questions the Commission should be asking?

     Replies to outer.londoncommission@london.gov.uk



     Timescales

     • Produce “First Thoughts” paper
     • Input to the London Plan and Mayor’s Transport Strategy
     • Final report to Mayor by Summer 2009


     Further information: http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/planning/olc/
Outer
 London                                                                  33
  Commission

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:4
posted:10/19/2012
language:English
pages:33