The Mayor’s Outer London
• Outer London
• Working definition
• Characteristics of outer London
• The 2008 London Plan policies
• The purpose of the Outer London Commission
• Initial questions - Economy, Quality of Life and Transport
• Next steps
Outer London: a working definition
Outer London economic issues
Population and employment
• Outer London has 60% of London’s population, 40% of its employment
• 60% of its residents work there & a third commute to inner/central London
• In London as a whole employment grew by 6% 1989 – 2001 and by 3% 2001 – 2007
(and Inner London outside the centre by 14% 1989 – 2001)
• Outer London grew by only 1% 1989 - 2001 and by 2% 2001 - 2007 (and adjacent
counties grew by 11% 1989 – 2001)
IS THIS JUST ‘IN THE NATURAL ORDER OF THINGS’
FOR A BIG CITY REGION?
Levels of local employment vary across London, but what do borough
Levels of total employment
1989 2001 2007
Barking & Dagenham
• Variations across
Bexley Outer boroughs
over past two
Ealing • Sharp growth in
Havering • Declines in Barking,
Kingston Upon Thames Croydon, Hounslow
• Outer London
Richmond Upon Thames overall than Inner
Sutton London and areas
0 50 100 150 200 250
Employment structure: different parts of outer London
• Heathrow almost all
Thames Gatew ay
and storage jobs
Western Wedge • Outer urban areas:
Wandle Valley larger proportions in
• Greatest shares of
financial jobs in
South Eastern London Croydon and SE
South Western London • Manufacturing most
Western London important to TG;
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Financial services Professional services
Creative activities Goods retail
Leisure activities Schools and hospitals
Outer Local activities Passenger transport, freight and storage
London Wholesale Manufacturing (excl publishing)
Employment and unemployment rates
Why is there more growth in the western Outer Metropolitan Area
than in Outer London?
Total employment change 1989 - 2001
Employment in outer London is projected to increase by 11% overall (2006
– 2026) compared to central (26%) and inner (27%)
How does transportation bear on economic growth?
The majority of outer London workers live in outer London
Flows of workers within, into and out of London
Residents’ trips: number and main mode shares
Traffic flow changes 1993 - 2007, flows of all motor vehicles (million km)
Outer London (LHS) Inner London (RHS)
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
How does population change bear on economic growth? For example 230 local
jobs per 1000 population
O.L. projected population 2006 - 2026
2006 2026 projected % changes
Croydon 329.8 335.2 1.6
• Croydon, Barnet
Barnet 321.1 377.4 17.5 and Ealing the most
Ealing 308.8 334.9 8.5
Bromley 297.4 303.1 1.9
Enfield 285.1 285.4 0.1 boroughs
Brent 273.3 291.2 6.6
Redbridge 246.0 264.1 7.4 • Populations
Hillingdon 244.2 246.5 0.9 forecast to grow
Greenwich 229.9 281.2 22.3
Havering 226.7 233.0 2.8
fastest in Barking,
Waltham Forest 223.2 230.9 3.5 Greenwich and
Hounslow 220.3 243.1 10.4 Barnet
Bexley 215.6 218.6 1.4
Harrow 214.4 214.1 -0.1 • Harrow, Enfield and
Merton 192.0 193.7 0.9
Sutton 180.8 181.0 0.1
Sutton all forecast
Richmond upon Thames 180.4 189.3 4.9 to remain stable
Barking and Dagenham 166.8 221.5 32.8
Kingston upon Thames 152.1 159.1 4.6 • Outer London
population set to
Outer London 4,508.0 4,803.6 6.6
Inner London 2,953.4 3,461.6 17.2 rise less sharply
than Inner London
Outer London 7,461.4 8,265.2 10.8
…and how does housing bear on the economy?
Net conventional housing completions (3 yr average)
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 03- 04- 05- 06-
04 05 06 07
Outer North East (LHS) Outer North (LHS) Outer South East (LHS)
Outer Outer West (LHS) Outer South West (LHS) Inner London (RHS)
What does an older population mean for the Outer London economy?
Population growth by age group 2006 - 2026
Does Outer London’s social composition have economic implications?
Change in High Socio-Economic Group 1991-2001
(Social Occupation Class 1-3)
Household income distribution (equivalised % of households 2008)
under 15K 15K - 30K 30K - 60K 60K+
Barking and Dagenham
• Newham and
Brent highest shares of
Bromley households with
£15k – both
Haringey around 25%
Hounslow Bromley with
Kingston upon Thames highest shares of
Richmond upon Thames
£60k at 26%,
Sutton 20% and 18%
Waltham Forest respectively
Outer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Indicative floorspace need 2001 - 2016
Kingston upon Thames
Richmond upon Thames
Are skills and training a barrier to realising outer London potential?
Barking and Dagenham
Eg GCSE (5+ A*-C) attainment including English and Maths by London Borough (%)
2008 London Plan policies
How do these bear on realising the potential of outer London?
For example ….
Town centres: London’s most important business locations outside the centre?
Opportunity & Intensification Areas: how do we make the most of this
Industrial land: what roles should it have in a 21st century city?
How best to realise the potential of disadvantaged neighbourhoods?
Overall, is there a more effective spatial planning structure to realise outer
How could the concept of ‘growth-hubs’ relate to this structure?
The objectives for growth-hubs would be to help lift Outer London economic
growth above its long term trend by (for example) providing:
• competitive advantage for clusters of activities on a scale of greater than sub
regional significance e.g. office, health, culture, retail,
• unique opportunities to address barriers to growth which have hitherto constrained
Outer London in making a greater contribution to the London economy
• development capacity to support this scale of economic activity
• accessibility beyond the sub-regional, based on multi-modal hubs with enhanced
local as well as wider connections
• a sense of place/destination of a quality of greater than sub-regional distinction
• viable justification including densification for any necessary strategic infrastructure
and other investment
• strategic residential capacity to help underpin this investment, to lend vitality and
viability to the hub and to help meet other housing objectives,
• which will complement other business locations and their distinct ‘offers’ in Outer
Purpose of the Outer
• find out the extent to which Outer London has potential to
contribute to the economic success of London as a whole,
• identify the factors which are holding it back from making that
• make recommendations on policies and mechanisms which will
enable it to do so.
…..and more particularly to:
• identify the scope to ‘grow’ the Outer London economy on a sustainable basis:
removing barriers to growth for competitive, established sectors/in attracting
• explore the potential contribution of a few large ‘super-hubs’ eg Stratford,
Croydon, Brent Cross, Heathrow area
• wider rejuvenation of Outer London’s town centres and other business
• enhance the ‘quality of life’: business and residential environments
• examine the relationship between demographic, housing and economic growth
• make the most of Outer London’s distinct townscapes, including potential of
some locations for tall buildings
• improve infrastructure, especially the balance between different types of orbital
and radial movement, strategically & locally,
• extend and deepen the skills base, addressing barriers to employment now &
• enhance linkages with other parts of London and the wider South East,
• suggest more effective funding arrangements and new priorities for the future
• suggest refinements to relevant institutional arrangements.
London RECOMMENDATIONS MUST BE PRACTICAL, REALISTIC 28
Commission AND TIGHTLY TIMETABLED
Outer London Commission: Working arrangements
• Economic analyses: historic trends and ‘what if’ economic
• Investigating views of key stakeholders in the Outer London economy
- Written responses to an evolving set of questions
- One to one/small group discussions
- Meetings in public in the quadrants of outer London
• Commission composed of 4 business, 3 boroughs, one each from TFL,
LDA, academia, design, voluntary, independent planning
Some initial questions on the outer London economy : (economic)
• What barriers to growth have led to OL lagging behind Inner & Central
London and the wider SE?
• How do these barriers bear on different sectors and areas and how can they
best be addressed?
• What role should public policy/investment have?
• What form should super-hubs take; what could they do relative to existing
policy; how many and where should they be; how should they relate to other
• How should Outer London opportunities relate to those in rest of London and
wider South East
• What role should housing led regeneration have?
…further questions on the outer London economy : (quality of life)
• How has quality of life (QoL) changed in the last 25 years and how
does this bear on business?
• From an economic perspective what QoL improvements would be most
effective? How could super-hubs support them?
• What is the relationship between local social infrastructure provision,
QoL and economic rejuvenation?
• What is the relationship between local sense of place and the public
realm, QoL and economic rejuvenation?
…and on the outer London economy : (transport)
• What transport investment is needed to support greater economic growth?
• In light of congestion and climate change objectives and limited resources,
what should be the balance between public and private modes and where
should investment be made?
• Given employment opportunities, what balance should be struck between
orbital and radial improvements?
• What needs to be done to make public transport more attractive and what
approach to traffic management is most appropriate NB car parking
• Would super-hubs improve access to jobs and services, reduce car use,
relieve congestion & pollution and be an efficient use of transport investment?
• What are your answers to these questions?
• Are there any other questions the Commission should be asking?
Replies to email@example.com
• Produce “First Thoughts” paper
• Input to the London Plan and Mayor’s Transport Strategy
• Final report to Mayor by Summer 2009
Further information: http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/planning/olc/